“Bitcoin is the digital gold” is one of the most popular narratives in the cryptocurrency industry, reiterating BTC’s growing status as a formidable store of value. However, while the premier cryptocurrency has floundered over the past months, gold and the metals market have largely witnessed explosive growth.
These contrasting performances have led to conversations about capital rotation between Bitcoin and gold, as the crowd expects one to always outperform the other at any given time. Recent data, however, suggests that the relationship between the BTC and gold price action is overrated.
Capital Flow Link Between BTC And Gold Overestimated
In a January 24 post on the X platform, on-chain analyst with the pseudonym Darkfost weighed in on the discourse surrounding capital rotation between gold and Bitcoin. According to the market pundit, the idea that investor funds flow from gold to Bitcoin is somewhat overblown.
To highlight this overestimation, Darkfost shared a chart showing periods where BTC outperforms or underperforms depending on gold’s trend. This chart typically provides two signals: positive (BTC above the 180-day moving average [MA] and gold below the 180-day MA) and negative (BTC below the 180-day moving average and gold below the 180-day MA).
As observed in the chart above and stated by Darkfost, the relationship between Bitcoin and gold does not appear to be fully substantiated. The on-chain analyst revealed that there have been as many positive periods as the negative ones, suggesting that the flagship cryptocurrency moves independently of gold.
Darkfost wrote:
This suggests that BTC continues to evolve independently, without clear evidence of a sustained capital rotation from gold.
Furthermore, Darkfost noted that a positive signal does not necessarily mean that capital is flowing out of gold into Bitcoin. According to the on-chain analyst, it is simply not possible to determine whether there is a capital flow relationship between the world’s largest cryptocurrency and gold.
Bitcoin & Gold Price Overview
While Bitcoin started the new year on a pretty strong note, the bullish momentum has pretty much waned over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, the gold price has continued to flourish this year, recently reaching a new all-time high above $4,900 per ounce.
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $89,230, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is nearly 30% adrift its all-time high above the $126,000 level.
A large investor shifted funds into tokenized gold this week, and Bitcoin felt the impact. Prices dipped while a whale quietly bought millions in XAUT, a gold-backed token, signaling a short-term move toward traditional hedges.
Whales Move Into Tokenized Gold
According to on-chain trackers, one address moved $1.53 million in USDC into Hyperliquid to buy XAUT. Reports note that the same wallet had earlier bought about 481 XAUT, a purchase worth roughly $2.38 million.
The address still holds close to $1.44 million in USDC, which suggests more purchases could follow. These moves were picked up on public blockchains and then flagged by analysts watching large transfers.
This kind of action can matter. When big players shuffle cash, smaller traders often take notice and hedge their bets. The shift is not proof of a long-term trend, but it shows that, at least for now, some large holders prefer gold exposure over extra crypto risk.
Whales are buying gold, not crypto.
~30 mins ago, whale 0x6B99 deposited 1.53M $USDC into Hyperliquid to buy $XAUT again.
Reports say gold has been moving sharply higher, with spot prices climbing close to $5,000 per ounce in global trading this week. Silver also rose above $100 per ounce, with intraday gold prints near $4,988 before settling.
Traders tie the surge to geopolitical tensions and the idea that interest rates may ease, which encourages money into metal-based stores of value.
A weaker dollar has also helped. Market chatter points to increased demand as investors seek steadier places to park capital while global politics and policy choices create more worry.
Bitcoin’s Price Action And Market Mood
Bitcoin traded around $88,653 at one stage, slipping about 1% on the day and nearly 30% below its prior cycle top. That gap is large. It has market participants questioning whether BTC will stay the go-to hedge during times of high stress. Some long-term holders remain confident. Others are watching liquidity and macro signals more closely.
Reports have disclosed renewed criticism from economist Peter Schiff, who argued that Bitcoin has underperformed versus gold since 2021.
He highlighted the opportunity cost for investors holding BTC while metals climb to record prices. Schiff wrote on social platforms that precious metals are outperforming and that this weak run for Bitcoin weakens its role as a store of value in the eyes of some.
What This Means For Crypto Investors
Short-term rotations like this often reflect risk preferences rather than permanent shifts. Some funds and wealthy individuals seek lower-volatility assets when headlines grow louder and policy paths look uncertain.
Others still view Bitcoin as a long-term play tied to scarcity and network effects. The current picture is a mix: metals are strong, tokenized gold is drawing attention, and crypto markets are reacting.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Bitwise has introduced a new actively managed exchange-traded fund aimed at navigating currency risk through a mix of digital and physical assets. Bitwise has launched an actively managed ETF that combines Bitcoin and gold as a hedge against currency debasement.…
Crypto pundit Crypto Chase has explained how Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings is a net negative for BTC’s adoption, especially among large investors. The pundit also ruled out the possibility of capitulation on Michael Saylor’s part, even if the flagship crypto drops below their entry point.
Why Saylor’s Strategy Bitcoin Holdings Puts BTC At Risk
In an X post, Crypto Chase opined that Strategy’s BTC holdings do more to deter institutions and high-net-worth individuals than to attract them. The pundit added that there really isn’t any full-scale capitulation below Saylor’s average entry price of $76,000, as he believes that Saylor and Strategy will hold until zero, except if the board forces them to do otherwise.
This statement followed Strategy’s latest $2.13 billion Bitcoin purchase, which saw the company’s holdings cross the 700,000 BTC milestone. The company now holds 709,715 BTC, which it acquired for $53.92 billion at an average price of $75,979. Meanwhile, Crypto Chase also stated that if the company were to offload these coins, the Bitcoin price would go back to $3,000 or lower.
The pundit warned that there are not even close to enough bids to handle such selling pressure. As such, he believes that Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings would have to be sold over the counter to the U.S. government or Trump to avoid a total collapse of the flagship crypto. However, Saylor has so far asserted that they have no intention of ever selling their BTC holdings.
Crypto Chase also mentioned that fear among uneducated market participants could provide a good entry if the narrative is that Saylor and Strategy would be liquidated if BTC drops below their average entry price. The pundit reiterated that it is game over if that ever happened, though. He is also not confident Bitcoin will rise to new highs anytime soon, noting there is significant overhead and Total Cost of Ownership, with entry points above $100,000.
From Another Crypto Pundit’s Point Of View
It is worth noting that Crypto Chase’s statement about Saylor’s Strategy and Bitcoin’s holdings was in response to crypto pundit Ansem’s point of view. In an X post, Ansem said he believes Bitcoin will find its place alongside gold and silver in portfolios and benefit from large, high-net-worth individuals and institutions adding small positions. He remarked that BTC, as a digital analog, is easier to transport across global borders and easier to transact with.
Ansem also noted that Saylor and Strategy’s cost average is currently around $75,000 and that he believes that a drop below that level would be a full-scale capitulation into a generational buying opportunity. From a technical standpoint, the pundit does not think Bitcoin will trade below last cycle’s price peak of $69,000 in 2021.
Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the pivotal $90,000 price mark once again after a brief bounce, but volatility still lingers around the largest cryptocurrency asset. During the ongoing volatile landscape, investors appear to have found a new niche, and that is buying BTC at a significant and fast rate.
Large Bitcoin Holders Are Buying In The Noise
The ongoing market volatility may have significantly impacted the Bitcoin price direction, but this is not the same for investors’ sentiment and activity. In the current bearish state, BTC investors are now sending a clear bullish signal, especially as indicated in the activity of the largest holders.
Sentiment observed among BTC large holders has shifted toward buying once again. According to research shared by Santiment, a leading on-chain data analytics platform, whales and sharks continue to accumulate more BTC even as market volatility intensifies.
During the ongoing bearish market, BTC’s price fell back to the $89,400 level, and assets like Silver and Gold experienced a steady spike. Instead of being shaken out by the pullback, these high-net-worth investors are persistently building positions, indicating a great level of confidence beneath the surface.
When these key investors start to buy BTC at a rapid rate again while the broader market signals caution, it is often viewed as a strategic move or repositioning ahead of a potential price spike. This kind of behavior is typically seen during transitional phases.
Data shows that wallet addresses holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have purchased an additional +36,322 BTC, representing an over 0.27% rise in the past 9 days. Should this renewed buying pressure from big investors continue, it is likely to play a role in determining BTC’s next major move as it reshapes its supply and price dynamics.
While whale investors steadily add to their positions, wallet addresses holding 0.01 BTC have been dumping to the noise. This group, regarded as shrimp holders, has offloaded over 132 BTC within the same timeframe, indicating a -0.28% drop.
Santiment highlighted that it is considered an optimal condition for a crypto breakout when smart money accumulates, and retailers dump. In the absence of a geopolitical issue, this pattern continues to demonstrate a long-term bullish divergence.
Risk Around BTC Is Becoming High
Following the bearish reaction on Wednesday, the Bitcoin Risk Index metric experienced a surge, reaching the 21 level and hovering just below the High Risk zone at level 25. This uptick suggests that the continuation of the consolidation phase is highly likely and will be bolstered by the massive high-risk environment seen over the past few months.
Despite the surge, the market is still technically in a low-risk environment, and buyers are struggling to hold the pivotal support level at $89,200. At this level, the market is presented with two different scenarios.
The first, which is the bullish scenario, tells that BTC could undergo a clear push toward $94,800 and possibly $99,000 if $89,200 support holds in the short term. Meanwhile, in the bearish scenario, a continued consolidation below the support level driven by sellers would cause a drop to $84,500, marking the next line of defense for buyers.
A macro stress test for global markets as risk appetite fractures
Global markets are sending a clear and uncomfortable signal. Stocks are selling off across major indices. Cryptocurrencies are falling faster and with greater volatility. Gold, meanwhile, is moving higher, absorbing capital that is actively exiting risk assets.
This divergence is not a short-term anomaly or a technical coincidence. It reflects a deeper shift in how investors are interpreting policy risk, liquidity conditions, and the durability of the current market regime. When equities and crypto fall together while gold rises, markets are not simply reacting to bad news. They are reassessing assumptions about stability, correlation, and protection.
Over the past several sessions, the alignment has been striking. U.S. equities recorded one of their sharpest single-day declines in months. Bitcoin slipped below key psychological levels, underperforming stocks on a relative basis. Crypto-linked equities, including miners and exchanges, sold off aggressively. At the same time, gold rallied to fresh highs, reinforcing its role as the preferred hedge during moments of macro uncertainty.
This pattern matters because it reveals how capital behaves when confidence weakens. Investors are not rotating within risk assets. They are exiting risk altogether. That distinction is critical.
The question now is not whether markets will remain volatile. Volatility is already here. The real question is whether this divergence marks a temporary stress episode or the early stages of a broader regime shift that could define asset performance for months ahead.
To answer that, we need to unpack what triggered this move, why stocks and crypto fell together, why gold diverged, and what the next set of outcomes could realistically look like.
The Trigger: Policy Shock Meets Fragile Positioning
Market selloffs rarely happen in a vacuum. They occur when a catalyst collides with vulnerability. In this case, renewed tariff threats from the U.S. administration acted as the spark, but the fire was already waiting.
The immediate trigger was a sharp escalation in trade rhetoric directed at several European economies, tied to broader geopolitical tensions. While tariff threats themselves are not new, the timing and tone mattered. Markets were already navigating a delicate balance between slowing growth, uncertain monetary policy, and elevated valuations across both equities and crypto assets.
In that environment, policy surprises carry outsized impact. Tariffs introduce multiple layers of uncertainty at once. They raise the risk of higher inflation by increasing import costs. They threaten growth by disrupting trade flows and corporate planning. And they complicate central bank decision-making by pulling inflation and growth in opposite directions.
This combination is particularly damaging for risk assets. Equities depend on earnings visibility and stable discount rates. Cryptocurrencies depend on liquidity, confidence, and speculative capital. Tariff-driven uncertainty undermines all three simultaneously.
What made the reaction sharper was positioning. Many investors entered this period with expectations of policy normalization, easing financial conditions, and continued institutional inflows. Instead, they were confronted with a reminder that geopolitical risk remains unresolved and unpredictable.
As a result, selling cascaded quickly. Equity markets repriced growth assumptions. Crypto markets, which tend to amplify moves due to leverage and thinner liquidity, experienced accelerated downside. Gold, by contrast, benefited immediately as capital sought assets perceived as insulated from policy missteps.
The key takeaway is that this was not a random selloff. It was a policy shock hitting markets that were already stretched and sensitive to disappointment.
Why Stocks and Crypto Fell Together
1. Risk assets now share the same liquidity backbone
One of the most important changes in modern markets is the increasing integration of cryptocurrencies into the traditional financial system. Bitcoin and major digital assets no longer operate on the fringes of global capital markets. They are embedded within them.
Over the past several years, institutional adoption has transformed crypto’s market structure. Spot ETFs, regulated custody solutions, derivatives markets, and prime brokerage services have brought crypto exposure into the same portfolios that hold equities, bonds, and commodities. As a result, crypto now responds to many of the same liquidity forces that drive stock prices.
When liquidity is abundant and risk appetite is strong, this integration works in crypto’s favor. Capital flows freely. Correlations compress. Prices rise together. But when liquidity tightens or uncertainty increases, the same integration becomes a vulnerability.
During this recent selloff, equities and crypto moved lower in tandem because they are drawing from the same pool of global risk capital. When investors de-risk, they reduce exposure across the entire risk spectrum. Crypto, with its higher volatility and leverage, often absorbs the largest impact.
This is why Bitcoin’s decline mirrored equity weakness rather than offsetting it. Crypto did not serve as a hedge. It behaved as a high-beta extension of the same risk trade.
Understanding this shift is essential. The idea that crypto automatically diversifies equity risk is outdated in the short term. In stress environments, correlation rises, not falls.
2. Tariffs revive inflation and growth fears at the same time
Tariffs are uniquely destabilizing because they attack markets from two directions. On one hand, they introduce inflationary pressure by raising the cost of imported goods and disrupting supply chains. On the other hand, they suppress growth by increasing uncertainty, reducing trade volumes, and discouraging investment.
For equities, this creates a valuation problem. Higher inflation pushes interest rates higher or delays rate cuts, increasing discount rates. Slower growth reduces earnings expectations. Together, they compress multiples and pressure prices.
For crypto, the impact is different but equally damaging. Crypto assets thrive in environments of expanding liquidity and speculative confidence. When tariffs threaten growth and complicate monetary policy, liquidity expectations weaken. Investors become more selective. Risk tolerance declines.
This dual effect explains why both markets sold off simultaneously. Investors were not choosing between stocks and crypto. They were choosing whether to remain exposed to risk at all.
Gold, by contrast, benefits from this exact setup. It does not depend on growth. It does not generate cash flows that need to be discounted. It thrives when inflation risk rises and confidence in policy coordination weakens.
3. Crypto-Specific Fragility Amplified the Move
While macro forces triggered the initial wave of selling, crypto’s internal market structure significantly intensified the downside. This was not a random or isolated breakdown. It reflected a market that had become structurally fragile beneath the surface, even as headline prices appeared stable.
In the weeks leading into the selloff, several warning signs were already present. Bitcoin and major altcoins had recently tested or exceeded prior highs, inviting profit-taking from early entrants and long-term holders. Momentum slowed, but positioning did not adjust accordingly. Derivatives markets remained heavily skewed toward long exposure, particularly in perpetual futures. Funding rates signaled optimism that had not yet been validated by fresh inflows.
At the same time, retail participation had thinned. Spot volumes declined relative to prior rallies, suggesting that price action relied increasingly on institutional flows and leveraged positioning rather than broad-based demand. This matters because institutional flows tend to be episodic, not continuous. When they pause or reverse, markets lose a critical stabilizing force.
Once prices began to slip, leverage became the accelerant. Liquidations triggered mechanically as margin thresholds were breached. Forced selling added pressure regardless of fundamentals or longer-term conviction. Support levels failed more rapidly than in equity markets, where circuit breakers, passive flows, and diversified ownership structures slow declines.
Crypto markets remain reflexive by design. Price declines trigger liquidations, liquidations trigger further declines, and feedback loops emerge quickly. This reflexivity has diminished over time but has not disappeared. Even as infrastructure matures and institutional participation grows, leverage remains deeply embedded in market behavior.
This dynamic does not imply that crypto is inherently unstable. It does mean that volatility amplification remains a defining risk characteristic. In moments of macro stress, crypto often absorbs pressure faster and more violently than traditional assets. Understanding this mechanical reality is essential for interpreting price moves without overreacting to them.
Why Gold Stayed Green While Everything Else Turned Red
Gold Responds to Policy Credibility Risk, Not Momentum
Gold’s resilience during this selloff had little to do with technical patterns or speculative enthusiasm. It reflected a deeper function that gold has served for centuries. Gold responds to credibility risk in policy and governance, not to short-term momentum or earnings expectations.
Tariff threats strike at the foundation of global economic coordination. They introduce uncertainty into trade relationships, supply chains, and inflation management. When investors sense that policy direction may become unpredictable or confrontational, they seek assets that sit outside the policy framework entirely.
Gold fits that role uniquely. It carries no counterparty risk. It does not depend on corporate profits, growth forecasts, or monetary accommodation. It is not issued by any government and cannot be diluted by policy decisions. It exists independently of the systems that are being questioned.
In moments when investors reassess trust rather than chase returns, gold becomes the first destination for defensive capital. This explains why gold often rises not during recessions themselves, but during periods when confidence in decision-making erodes.
Importantly, gold’s strength does not require a crisis narrative. It does not rely on fear alone. It benefits from uncertainty, ambiguity, and policy friction. That is precisely the environment created by escalating tariff rhetoric and geopolitical tension.
This distinction helps explain why gold can rise even as equities and crypto fall together. Stocks and digital assets remain embedded within the economic system. Gold stands apart from it.
Central Bank Behavior Reinforces Gold’s Role
Another powerful force supporting gold is sustained central bank demand. Over the past several years, central banks have accumulated gold at some of the fastest rates seen in decades. This behavior is deliberate and strategic, not reactive.
Central banks buy gold to diversify reserves, reduce exposure to any single currency, and hedge against geopolitical fragmentation. These motivations align closely with the current global environment, where economic blocs are becoming more fragmented and policy coordination is less certain.
Unlike speculative flows, central bank buying creates a steady, price-insensitive bid. These institutions are not trading volatility. They are managing long-term reserve stability. As a result, gold prices benefit from structural support even when broader markets experience stress.
This contrasts sharply with crypto markets, where flows remain more cyclical and sentiment-driven. While institutional crypto adoption has grown, it has not yet reached the level of strategic reserve allocation that gold enjoys.
The difference matters. Structural demand dampens volatility and anchors confidence. Cyclical demand amplifies moves in both directions.
The Digital Gold Narrative Failed Another Real-Time Test
Bitcoin is frequently described as digital gold, but this episode highlights an important and often misunderstood distinction. In moments of acute macro stress, Bitcoin still behaves like a high-beta risk asset rather than a defensive hedge.
That observation does not undermine Bitcoin’s long-term thesis as a scarce digital asset. It does not negate its potential role in a future monetary system. What it does clarify is Bitcoin’s current position in the market hierarchy.
Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to liquidity conditions, risk appetite, and policy expectations. When uncertainty rises sharply and capital prioritizes preservation over opportunity, Bitcoin tends to fall alongside equities rather than diverge from them.
Gold does not require belief or narrative reinforcement. Its role as a store of value is deeply institutionalized. Bitcoin’s role is still evolving. It attracts capital during periods of monetary expansion and confidence. It struggles when liquidity tightens and policy uncertainty rises.
This does not mean the digital gold thesis is invalid. It means it is incomplete. Bitcoin may serve as a long-term hedge against monetary debasement, but it has not yet proven itself as a short-term hedge against geopolitical or policy shocks.
Recognizing this distinction helps investors avoid misplaced expectations. It allows Bitcoin to be evaluated on its actual behavior rather than aspirational comparisons.
What Search Data and Market Behavior Are Telling Us
Search behavior offers a valuable window into investor psychology. At present, the dominant queries are not about upside targets or breakout predictions. They focus on explanation, causality, and risk assessment.
People are searching for why markets are moving together, why traditional hedges are diverging, and whether current conditions signal something more systemic. This shift in attention is meaningful.
It suggests that uncertainty, not greed, is driving engagement. Investors are not rushing to deploy capital. They are pausing to understand the environment. This behavior typically appears during reassessment phases rather than panic phases.
Market behavior reinforces this interpretation. While prices have fallen, there has been no widespread disorder. Liquidity remains intact. Credit markets have not seized. Volatility has risen, but not uncontrollably.
This combination of elevated concern and controlled behavior points to a market that is re-pricing risk rather than collapsing under it. In such environments, clear and disciplined analysis carries more value than bold forecasts.
For content creators and analysts, this moment rewards clarity over confidence and explanation over speculation.
What Happens Next?
Base Case: Volatility Persists, Leadership Remains Defensive
The most likely scenario is one of continued volatility without systemic crisis. Equities may stabilize but struggle to regain leadership. Crypto may remain under relative pressure as leverage resets and confidence rebuilds. Gold is likely to hold gains as long as policy uncertainty remains unresolved.
This environment favors patience and balance. It does not reward aggressive directional bets.
Downside Risk Case: Escalation and Liquidity Stress
If tariff rhetoric escalates into concrete policy actions, downside risks increase materially. Growth expectations would weaken. Inflation risk could rise. Central banks could face constrained policy choices.
In this scenario, risk assets could reprice lower in a more disorderly fashion. Crypto would likely underperform due to leverage sensitivity. Gold would benefit disproportionately as capital seeks insulation from systemic risk.
Upside Recovery Case: De-Escalation and Clarity
If tensions ease and policy signals stabilize, markets could recover. Equities may rebound selectively. Crypto could recover faster due to higher beta. Gold may consolidate rather than reverse sharply.
This outcome requires clarity, not optimism. Markets respond to reduced uncertainty more than to positive headlines.
What This Means for Investors
This environment does not reward impulsive decisions. It rewards understanding.
Investors should focus on correlation risk, liquidity sensitivity, time horizon alignment, and exposure sizing. This is a moment to reassess assumptions, not to double down on narratives.
Markets are signaling caution, not catastrophe. Those who listen carefully will be better positioned for whatever comes next.
FAQs
1. Why are stocks and crypto falling together? Stocks and cryptocurrencies are both sensitive to global liquidity, risk appetite, and policy expectations. When uncertainty rises around trade, geopolitics, or interest rates, investors reduce exposure to assets tied to growth and confidence. This causes correlations to rise. In these moments, diversification breaks down temporarily as capital moves away from risk across markets at the same time.
2. Why is gold rising while other assets fall? Gold tends to benefit when investors question policy credibility, geopolitical stability, or fiscal discipline. It carries no credit risk and does not rely on earnings or growth assumptions. Central bank accumulation also provides structural support. These factors make gold a preferred destination for defensive capital when uncertainty increases and confidence in risk assets weakens.
3. Is Bitcoin failing as an asset? No. Bitcoin is not failing, but it is behaving according to its current role in markets. In periods of stress, Bitcoin still trades like a high-beta risk asset rather than a safe haven. This does not invalidate its long-term scarcity thesis. It highlights that Bitcoin remains sensitive to liquidity conditions and investor confidence in the short to medium term.
4. Does this mean the digital gold narrative is wrong? The digital gold narrative is incomplete rather than wrong. Bitcoin may serve as a long-term hedge against monetary debasement, but it has not yet proven itself as a short-term hedge during geopolitical or policy-driven shocks. Gold has centuries of institutional trust, while Bitcoin’s role is still evolving within the global financial system.
5. Are markets signaling an upcoming crisis? At this stage, markets are signaling reassessment, not crisis. Liquidity remains functional, and there is no evidence of systemic breakdown. Volatility has increased, but price action reflects caution rather than panic. Investors are repricing risk and waiting for clearer policy signals before committing capital, which is typical during transitional phases.
6. What role is policy uncertainty playing in this selloff? Policy uncertainty is a central driver. Tariff threats, geopolitical tensions, and unclear monetary direction introduce unpredictability into growth and inflation expectations. Markets dislike ambiguity more than bad news. When policy signals lack clarity or consistency, investors reduce risk exposure until they gain better visibility into potential outcomes.
7. Why does crypto fall faster than equities during stress? Crypto markets still contain higher leverage and more reflexive mechanics than equity markets. When prices decline, liquidations can accelerate moves mechanically. Retail participation is also more volatile. These factors cause crypto to absorb shocks faster and more aggressively, even as institutional participation continues to grow.
8. Should investors expect continued volatility? Yes, continued volatility is likely until policy clarity improves. Markets are sensitive to headlines, macro data, and geopolitical developments. Until uncertainty fades or stabilizes, price swings across equities, crypto, and commodities may persist. Volatility does not imply collapse, but it does require disciplined risk management and patience.
9. What indicators matter most right now? Investors should focus on policy developments, interest rate expectations, inflation data, and cross-asset correlations. Gold behavior relative to equities, crypto performance versus stocks, and liquidity conditions offer more insight than short-term price targets. These indicators help assess whether markets are stabilizing or preparing for further repricing.
10. How should long-term investors approach this environment? Long-term investors should prioritize balance, position sizing, and time horizon alignment. This is a moment to reassess assumptions rather than chase narratives. Avoid overreacting to short-term moves. Markets are recalibrating, not resetting. Those who focus on fundamentals, risk control, and patience are better positioned for the next phase.
The Bottom Line
Markets are not broken. They are recalibrating.
What we are witnessing is not a systemic failure or a loss of control. It is a repricing of risk in response to rising uncertainty. When stocks and cryptocurrencies bleed red while gold stays green, markets are sending a clear message about where confidence stands. Capital is not chasing opportunity. It is prioritizing protection.
This shift reflects a change in investor psychology rather than panic. Participants are reassessing assumptions that had quietly become embedded during periods of stability and liquidity. Trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical friction, and questions around monetary direction have introduced enough ambiguity to warrant caution. In response, investors are reducing exposure to assets that depend on growth, liquidity, and confidence, and reallocating toward assets that offer insulation from policy risk.
Importantly, this behavior does not signal the end of the cycle. It signals a pause. Markets often move in phases where risk is priced aggressively, then reassessed, then selectively re-embraced. The current phase is one of reassessment. Investors are waiting for clearer signals before committing fresh capital.
What happens next will depend far less on short-term chart patterns and far more on policy behavior and communication. Markets are listening closely to governments, central banks, and geopolitical developments. Clarity can stabilize sentiment. Escalation can deepen caution.
For now, the message is unmistakable. When uncertainty rises, protection comes first. Growth opportunities do not disappear, but they take a back seat until confidence is rebuilt.
The crypto market shed $150 billion in capitalization as Bitcoin plunged below $88,000 amid a brutal leverage unwind, while gold surged past $4,800 per ounce for the first time in history.
The sharp divergence came as President Donald Trump’s escalating tariff threats against European allies over Greenland triggered a broad flight from US risk assets, with geopolitical tensions reaching their highest point since the Liberation Day tariff announcements of April 2025.
Bitcoin tumbled 9% in 48 hours to $87,000, wiping out $360 million in leveraged long positions in a single hour late Monday.
Source: TradingView
The selloff intensified pressure on an already fragile market structure, with short-term holders (those who purchased Bitcoin within the past 155 days) now underwater for eight consecutive weeks, requiring a recovery above $98,000 to return to profitability, according to Glassnode data.
Market Sentiment Hits Multi-Year Lows
CoinGlass liquidation data revealed 181,570 traders were wiped out over 24 hours, with $998.33 million in long positions liquidated versus just $71.39 million in shorts.
Bitcoin accounted for $440.19 million in forced selling, while Ethereum accounted for $392.38 million in liquidations, as the cascade accelerated during thin Asian trading hours.
Rex from R89Capital captured the despair gripping crypto natives, stating, “sentiment has bottomed out for sure. No one gives a single fuck about crypto. Die hard crypto natives who’ve shown up daily for years are trading stock shitters and commodities.”
He added that “it literally can’t get any worse for sentiment than right now,” noting that even during the COVID crash bottom, people still believed in the industry.
Sentiment has bottomed out for sure. No one gives a single fuck about crypto. Die hard crypto natives who've shown up daily for years are trading stock shitters and commodities. No one wants to make angel investments in this space, no one believes any of the bullshit narratives..…
Another analyst, TheGreekGod11, echoed this frustration, observing that the industry executed “an excellent job at making crypto look like absolute dogshit” by voting in the first pro-crypto president, only to crash the market.
Mike Novogratz also warned that “the gold price is telling us we are losing reserve currency status at an accelerating rate,” adding that “$BTC is disappointing as it is still being met with selling.”
He reiterated that Bitcoin “has to take out 100-103k to regain its upward trend,” though he believes it will happen in time.
Joe Consorti offered a contrarian take, stating, “Bitcoin plummeting on geopolitical escalation, rather than ripping with gold and silver, tells you how early we are. The largest informational asymmetry in markets is still alive and well.“
Bitcoin plummeting on geopolitical escalation, rather than ripping with gold and silver, tells you how early we are.
The largest informational asymmetry in markets is still alive and well.
Gold extended its historic rally to $4,874.21, marking a 2.3% gain and continuing a three-session surge that has now pushed the precious metal within reach of $4,900.
According to Economies, Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG in Sydney, stated that investors’ shedding of dollar-denominated assets reflects “a loss of confidence in the US administration and rising strains in international alliances following Trump’s latest threats.“
Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, also told Bloomberg that the surge is spurring “fear of market-led debasement in the rest of the world,” adding that “gold’s rally is about trust. For now, trust has bent, but hasn’t broken. If it breaks, momentum will persist for longer.”
Goldman Sachs co-head of commodities research Daan Struyven also declared, “Gold remains our highest conviction,” reiterating the bank’s base case scenario of gold rising to $4,900 per ounce, with risks to the upside.
In fact, Benjamin Cowen stated bluntly that “metals outperformed crypto in 2025 and will likely do so again in 2026,” warning that when metals eventually correct, “crypto will likely drop more.“
Metals outperformed crypto in 2025 and will likely do so again in 2026.
Metals will likely have a big correction later this year, but when they do, crypto will likely drop more.
Trade the market you have, not the market you want.
Traditional equity markets suffered parallel damage, with the S&P 500 falling 2.06% and the Nasdaq Composite dropping 2.4% on Tuesday after markets reopened following Monday’s holiday.
Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings came under scrutiny, with analyst Maartunn noting that “40% of Strategy’s Bitcoin supply is currently sitting at a loss,” adding that “pressure’s building.”
40% of Strategy’s Bitcoin supply is currently sitting at a loss
Analyst CrediBULL Crypto offered cautious optimism, pointing out that “for the first time in 7 months, LTH (long term holders) have shifted from being net sellers to net buyers,” suggesting the reversal may be just around the corner.
However, analyst Ted Pillows warned that “$BTC must hold above the $89,000 level. Losing this zone will end the short-term uptrend.“
Trump reiterated Tuesday there would be “no retreat” from his goal of controlling Greenland, threatening 10% tariffs on eight European nations beginning February unless they withdraw objections to US annexation.
French President Emmanuel Macron directly rebuked Trump’s tactics at Davos, while the EU prepared emergency countermeasures, including retaliatory tariffs worth €93 billion on US imports.
For now, no known agreement has been reached, as fear remains heightened in the market.
Bitcoin’s collapse alongside traditional risk assets, rather than rallying with gold, exposed the asset’s continued treatment as a speculative asset rather than a proven safe haven during geopolitical crises.
Gold (XAU/USD) printed $4,689.39/oz and silver (XAG/USD) tagged $94.08/oz today, after President Donald Trump tied a new tariff schedule to a Greenland standoff in a Truth Social post on Saturday that set explicit start dates and step-ups.
Trump Sets Feb. 1 Tariff Start Date in Greenland Dispute
Trump wrote that the U.S. will impose a 10% tariff from Feb. 1, 2026, on “any and all goods” from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the U.K., the Netherlands, and Finland, then lift the rate to 25% from June 1, 2026, until “the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland” occurs.
Eight #European countries targeted by #US President Donald #Trump for a 10% #tariff for opposing American control of Greenland on Sunday warned that his threats “undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral.”
“This Tariff will be due and payable until such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland,” Trump stated in the post.
Price action favored the higher-beta metal: spot silver rose about 4.4% intraday to $93.85/oz after the $94.08/oz print, while spot gold rose about 1.6% to $4,670.01/oz after the $4,689.39/oz high.
Cross-asset tape confirmed “risk-off” positioning: European equities traded lower on Jan. 19, 2026, as the tariff timeline hit, with Germany’s DAX falling 1.1% and the CAC 40 in Paris falling 1.3% in early moves cited by AP News.
The next macro catalyst sits on the rates channel: the Bank of Japan has scheduled its Monetary Policy Meeting for Jan. 22-23, 2026, with the Statement on Monetary Policy slated for Jan. 23 and the Summary of Opinions due Feb. 2.
Liquidity note for desks running metal exposure: U.S. markets are closed on Jan. 19, 2026, for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which historically concentrates price discovery into futures/FX venues and can widen intraday slippage on leveraged metal products.
What Markets Are Pricing In
Gold’s record print at $4,689/oz matters less than the tariff calendar at Feb. 1 and June 1 because systematic macro books map those dates into USD rate volatility and cross-asset correlation spikes.
If the BoJ on Jan. 23 indicates tighter policy while Washington simultaneously escalates trade restrictions, desks should expect convex moves in JPY crosses and mechanically higher demand for collateral-friendly havens, with silver’s $94/oz spike acting as a tell for funds that express the same hedge through higher beta and industrial tightness rather than pure store-of-value exposure.
Bitcoin literacy and community growth are accelerating in West Virginia, and it’s starting to reshape how communities across the state engage with digital finance. What was once viewed as a niche interest among tech enthusiasts is now gaining traction across broader segments of the state’s population. As residents become more curious about digital assets, conversations are shifting from speculation to understanding how BTC works and what it could mean for personal and regional economic resilience.
Bitcoin As A Tool For Regional Economic Growth
West Virginia has been making headlines in the Bitcoin space recently, particularly with fresh legislative moves as of January 2026. MartyParty revealed on X that the biggest current development is Senator Bill 143 (SB143), which was introduced this week by State Senator Chris Rose.
This is officially titled the Inflation Protection Act of 2026, which would allow the state’s Board of Treasury Investment to allocate up to 10% of public funds into precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum. The bill requires any qualifying digital asset to have maintained an average market capitalization of at least $750 billion over the prior year, which qualifies only BTC. In addition, the bill also allows for regulated stablecoins, but only the US federal or state regulators can approve the assets.
However, the bill frames this as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation, and empowering the state treasurer to invest in BTC without directly naming it in most of the statute. Although the purpose section explicitly mentions empowering investment in gold, silver, and BTC. These assets would need to be made through qualified custodians, ETFs, or other secure frameworks.
What Pension Funds And Endowments Think About Bitcoin
The Bitcoin price prediction by funds indicates a bullish outlook for 2026. CryptoRank.io has mentioned that the institutional analysts are pricing in a bullish scenario for BTC in 2026. The average target across the forecasts shown is around $150,000 per BTC, implying roughly 75% upside from current levels.
At the same time, longer-term valuation models assume a more gradual growth path. Popular asset manager VanEck predicts BTC could reach approximately $2.9 million by 2050, which equates to around 15% annualized growth broadly in line with the BTC historical long-term performance as a macro asset.
In contrast to institutional forecasts, prediction markets maintain a more conservative outlook. On Polymarket, the pricing base-case range between $110,000 to $130,000. This consensus could shift toward the institutional targets if spot ETF inflows remain strong and if the US regulatory uncertainty continues to decline, including initiatives such as the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said that Bitcoin may climb to fresh records if US monetary conditions loosen next year. He pointed to several possible triggers for a large increase in dollar liquidity in 2026, while also linking recent market moves to where capital flowed in 2025.
Hayes Links Bitcoin To Dollar Liquidity
According to Hayes, the key for Bitcoin is the amount of money sloshing through the system. He mentioned the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expanding through what he called more aggressive money creation, mortgage rates falling as lenders loosen, and commercial banks stepping up loans to industries backed by government strategy.
Bitcoin fell 15% in 2025 while gold jumped 44%. Technology stocks led the S&P 500 with a total return of 25%, against the S&P’s overall 18% return. Those figures, Hayes argued, show that last year was a story about where liquidity landed, not about crypto losing its basic case.
Government Support Sends Tech Higher
Hayes also highlighted how governments have shifted capital into certain tech projects. He suggested that both China and the US used executive actions and public funds to push money into artificial intelligence work, saying this has helped tech firms attract big flows regardless of immediate return on equity.
He named US President Donald Trump when pointing to policy moves that favor AI investment. That dynamic, he said, helped explain why the Nasdaq performed strongly even as Bitcoin slumped.
Policy And Military Spending Matter
He added a more pointed claim about military spending. Hayes said the US will keep using its military might and that such efforts require large-scale production financed through the banking system.
That, in his view, can add to broader liquidity if the banking sector starts funding big government-backed projects. Reports have disclosed that Hayes believes these forces could force dollar liquidity higher in 2026, creating fertile ground for risk assets — including Bitcoin.
Inflation Data Pushed Crypto Higher This Week
Markets reacted when the latest US inflation figures came in cooler than expected. Bitcoin inched close to $97,000 and rose more than 5% in 24 hours. Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano each posted gains near 8% in the same span.
Bond yields fell and the dollar weakened, which left cash looking for a new home. That pattern is familiar: softer inflation tends to lower borrowing costs and makes investors more willing to take risk.
A Bull Case With Conditions
Based on Hayes’ logic, Bitcoin’s upside depends on ongoing fiat debasement. He frames Bitcoin as monetary technology whose value rises when fiat is weakened. That view is coherent but conditional. If central banks choose to stay tight, or if inflation flares and forces a policy shift, Hayes’ scenario may not unfold. For the time being, his forecast is a liquidity story — one that will be tested by policy choices in 2026.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Despite its slow momentum over the past few weeks, XRP is still on analysts’ radar as they look beyond its dollar price action and into its performance against gold. One analyst has said that the long-term XRP/Gold ratio has just reached a historical support zone, signaling a familiar technical setup that could determine its next move.
XRP/Gold Ratio Arrives At Critical Support Level
Market expert ‘Steph is Crypto’ has released a fresh analysis focusing on the XRP to gold ratio and its historical behaviour. In his post on X this Tuesday, he stated that the ratio has returned to a long-standing support zone around $0.0004, which has consistently marked major turning points in XRP’s price action relative to gold.
According to the analyst, this same area previously preceded powerful upside moves in the XRP/gold ratio. Each prior visit to this zone was followed by a sharp reversal higher, as highlighted by the circled lows and steep advances that followed. The chart shows rallies of more than 800% in 2020, over 120% in 2022, and about 530% in 2024.
Steph is Crypto also pointed to momentum conditions, noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was oversold in the past when the XRP/gold ratio hit the historical support. In the current 2026 cycle, the RSI sits around 33.38, reflecting a similar oversold setup to previous cycles. According to the analyst, this suggests downside momentum is fading.
The general outlook of this analysis suggests that if past trends repeat, the XRP/gold ratio could experience another strong rally this cycle. This time, Steph is Crypto predicts a rally from the support around $0.0004 to over $0.0018, representing a gain of more than 350%.
Analyst Links XRP Trajectory To That Of Gold And Silver
In a subsequent post, Steph is Crypto shared another analysis comparing the historical price movements and expansion phase of gold and silver with XRP. He presented parallel charts for each asset, highlighting distinct phases preceding major price rallies in the precious metals while illustrating the potential path for XRP based on gold and silver’s past performance.
The chart showed that gold and silver experienced a major distribution phase in 2021, followed by a compression phase in 2023 and an expansion in 2026. In Gold’s case, its price reversal was sharp and vertical, with minimal pullbacks before reaching an all-time high near $4,700. Silver’s movement was more muted, showing significant volatility from 2023 to 2025 before accelerating in 2026 to peak above $91.
Based on these performances, Steph is Crypto predicts that XRP could follow a similar trajectory. The cryptocurrency has completed its distribution phase above $3 and its compression stage near $2.3, and the analyst now expects it to enter an expansion phase, with a projected ATH target of $32.
Famous legal expert Bill Morgan has highlighted how Ripple was unable to promote XRP over the past few years due to its former legal battle against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Why Ripple Was Unable To Promote XRP In The Past
In an X post, Bill Morgan stated that Ripple could not promote XRP or the XRP Ledger in the past for fear of being sued by the SEC for promoting and offering an unregistered security. He noted that despite that, the company was still sued by the regulator. The lawyer’s response followed XRPL stakeholder Wietse’s comments about how the XRPL has a track record of regularly being too early and also being too late.
Wietse made this comment after XRP community member Crypto Eri pointed out that the XRP Ledger has supported tokenized gold since, though it hasn’t received enough publicity. Wietse added that the network is too early for people to notice and realize how great certain things are, and too late for others, causing too little, too late catch-up.
However, Bill Morgan believes that XRP and XRP Ledger would have gotten more publicity if Ripple had been able to actively promote the altcoin in the past. He noted that during the SEC lawsuit, the crypto firm barely mentioned XRP. Meanwhile, the lawyer noted that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptos were promoted with impunity and that former SEC official Bill Hinman effectively promoted ETH while in office.
The lawyer added that, to this day, Ripple’s promotion of XRP and the XRP Ledger remains muted. He stated that the company does it by stealth under the cover of acquisitions and RLUSD. Morgan believes that this is nothing compared to how Michael Saylor actively talks about and promotes Bitcoin.
XRP Is Still At The Centre Of Ripple’s Vision
Ripple has, in recent times, reiterated that XRP is at the centre of its vision. In his New Year’s message, the firm’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, stated that the altcoin has been and will continue to be the heartbeat of that vision. This came as he noted that their two major acquisitions last year, Ripple Prime and GTreasury, will greatly accelerate and expand their ability to deliver on their vision, which is to enable the Internet of Value.
He added that building and using crypto infrastructure, updating their global financial plumbing, and rethinking legacy systems don’t happen overnight. As such, they will continue to take the long view of what crypto-based assets such as XRP and RLUSD can do rather than chasing cycles and hype.
At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $2.16, up over 5% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin (BTC) and the stock market have experienced sharp price swings and declines since 2025. Because of this volatility, a crypto analyst has warned that the market correction could intensify further in 2026. In a detailed analysis, he outlines a bearish scenario for Bitcoin, suggesting the flagship cryptocurrency could soon face another price crash amid persistent downward pressure in the broader stock market.
Analyst Warns Of Major Bitcoin And Stock Market Plunge
Market analyst Doctor Profit has raised concerns about the direction of the crypto and traditional markets, warning that both Bitcoin and stocks are currently in a severe bear market. In a technical breakdown on X this Monday, the expert highlighted three major bearish setups forming simultaneously in Bitcoin.
He highlighted a massive Bearish Divergence on the weekly and monthly charts, a clear bearish flag signaling a potential drop toward $70,000, and a possible Head and Shoulder pattern that could still play out. While he acknowledged that Bitcoin could still experience short-term price increases and briefly rise toward the $97,000-$107,000 range due to strong liquidity, he said that the ultimate target remains $70,000.
Doctor Profit emphasized that Bitcoin’s potential decline to $70,000 could go two ways. It could either break out of the bearish flag to that downside target or complete the Head and Shoulders pattern before reaching $70,000. He stated that he will not add new short positions at current prices but plans to increase them aggressively from $115,000 to $125,000 if Bitcoin moves into the $97,000 to $107,000 range.
The analyst painted a similarly grim picture for the stock market. He said he was “ultra-bearish” on both Bitcoin and the financial system. He also noted that the banks are stressed and that forced liquidations in precious metals like Silver are creating ripples across the broader market.
Additionally, Doctor Profit noted that insider activity shows clear signs of panic among investors, with record levels of selling since August 2025. Because of this, the analyst believes that the market is heading for a 2008-style crash. Consequently, he has concluded that the current market conditions are too extreme.
On the bright side, Doctor Profit said that although he maintains short positions on stocks and Bitcoin, he remains bullish on Gold and Silver. He explained that any upside to the $97,000-$107,000 range will prompt him to increase his short exposure and roll spot profits for BTC from $85,000 into these positions.
Crypto Markets Brace For Key US Decisions
Toward the end of his analysis, Doctor Profit discussed upcoming events that could influence Bitcoin and the broader financial markets this week. He stated that the US CPI inflation forecast of 2.7% will be released this Tuesday. Other than this, the rest of the week is expected to have few market-moving events.
Doctor Profit has also highlighted January 15 as an important date because US lawmakers will vote on the CLARITY Act. He explained that if the bill passes, it will move closer to becoming law, setting clear rules and oversight for the crypto market.
Products listed as XAUUSDT and XAGUSDT are designed to track gold and silver prices onchain.
The contracts operate under FSRA regulation in Abu Dhabi through the ADGM framework.
Other major exchanges already offer precious metals-linked perpetual contracts, reflecting rising demand.
Binance has widened its derivatives suite by adding perpetual futures linked to gold and silver, marking a push beyond purely digital assets.
The move reflects growing demand among crypto-native traders for exposure to traditional safe-haven markets through familiar onchain infrastructure.
By listing precious metals products that trade around the clock and have no expiry date, the exchange is positioning itself at the intersection of commodities and crypto trading.
The launch comes as gold and silver prices have reached fresh records, drawing renewed attention from investors seeking hedges against volatility across global markets.
Precious metals enter crypto derivatives
The exchange said on Thursday that it had launched perpetual futures contracts tied to gold and silver.
The products allow traders to speculate on price movements without holding the underlying metals and without worrying about contract expiration.
Trading is available continuously, mirroring the structure of crypto perpetuals that already dominate derivatives volumes on major exchanges.
The contracts are listed under the symbols XAUUSDT and XAGUSDT. Both are designed to track the market price of gold and silver, respectively.
Instead of physical settlement, positions are settled in Tether’s USDT stablecoin, giving traders onchain exposure to precious metals pricing while remaining within a crypto-based settlement system.
Settlement and market access
By settling the contracts in USDT, Binance is extending the use of stablecoins beyond crypto-native assets into traditional commodity-linked products.
This structure allows traders to gain price exposure without converting funds into fiat currencies or commodity-backed instruments.
It also removes the need for storage, delivery, or custody arrangements associated with physical gold and silver.
The approach highlights how derivatives are being used to mirror traditional financial markets inside crypto trading platforms.
Binance has indicated that additional contracts linked to traditional assets are planned, suggesting that commodities and other non-crypto markets may feature more prominently in future product rollouts.
Regulatory framework in Abu Dhabi
The gold and silver perpetuals are offered through Next Exchange Limited, a Binance entity operating under the Abu Dhabi Global Market framework.
The contracts fall under the supervision of the Financial Services Regulatory Authority, with Binance holding the relevant licences within ADGM.
This regulatory setup is central to Binance’s effort to expand its derivatives catalogue while maintaining compliance in key jurisdictions.
Abu Dhabi has also become relevant for stablecoin usage, with USDT approved for use by regulated companies in the emirate, even as Tether has chosen not to seek authorisation under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets framework.
Competition and safe haven demand
Binance is not alone in offering precious metals-linked perpetual contracts.
Other exchanges active in this segment include Coinbase, MEXC, BTCC, BingX, and Bybit, although Bybit currently limits its offering to gold-linked perpetuals.
The growing number of platforms listing such products points to rising interest in blending commodity exposure with crypto derivatives trading.
The timing of Binance’s launch aligns with a period of heightened demand for safe-haven assets.
Both gold and silver have recently climbed to new all-time highs, driven by investor appetite for assets perceived as stores of value.
By enabling trading in these markets via USDT-settled perpetuals, Binance is tapping into that demand while keeping activity within its existing derivatives ecosystem.
Bitcoin has struggled to maintain a sustained correlation with Gold, recently only moving in unison during market downturns. However, examining Bitcoin’s price action through the lens of Gold rather than USD reveals a more complete picture of the current market cycle. By measuring Bitcoin’s true purchasing power against comparable assets, we can identify potential support levels and gauge where the bear market cycle may be approaching its conclusion.
Bitcoin Bear Market Officially Begins Below Key Support
Breaking beneath the 350-day moving average at about $100,000 and the significant psychological 6-figure barrier marked the functional entry into bear market territory, with Bitcoin declining approximately 20% immediately thereafter. From a technical perspective, trading beneath The Golden Ratio Multiplier moving average has historically indicated Bitcoin entering a bear cycle, though the narrative becomes more interesting when measured against Gold rather than USD.
Figure 1: BTC breaking beneath the 350DMA has historically coincided with the start of bear markets.View Live Chart
The Bitcoin versus Gold chart tells a notably different story than the USD chart. Bitcoin topped out in December 2024 and has since declined over 50% from that level, whereas the USD valuation peaked in October 2025, significantly beneath the highs set the prior year. This divergence suggests that Bitcoin may have been in a bear market for considerably longer than most observers realize. Looking at historical Bitcoin bear cycles when measured in Gold, we can see patterns that suggest the current pullback may already be approaching critical support zones.
Figure 2: When priced in Gold, BTC dropped beneath its 350DMA back in August.
The 2015 bear cycle bottomed at an 86% retracement lasting 406 days. The 2017 cycle saw 364 days and an 84% decline. The previous bear cycle produced a 76% drawdown over 399 days. Currently, at the time of this analysis, Bitcoin is down 51% in 350 days when measured against Gold. While percentage drawdowns have been diminishing as Bitcoin’s market cap grows and more capital flows into the market, this trend reflects the rising tide of institutional adoption and lost Bitcoin supply rather than a fundamental change in cycle dynamics.
Figure 3: Plotting BTC’s value in Gold reveals a cycle pattern that suggests we could already be 90% of the way through this bear market.
Rather than relying solely on percentage drawdowns and time elapsed, Fibonacci retracement levels mapped across multiple cycles provide greater precision. Using a Fibonacci retracement tool from bottom to top across historical cycles reveals striking levels of confluence.
Figure 4: In previous cycles, bear market bottoms have aligned with key Fibonacci retracement levels.
In the 2015-2018 cycle, the bear market bottom occurred at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which corresponded to approximately 2.56 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin. The resulting price action marked the bottom with remarkable clarity, far cleaner than the equivalent USD chart. Moving forward to the 2018-2022 cycle, the bear market bottom aligned almost perfectly with the 0.5 level at approximately 9.74 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin. This level later acted as meaningful resistance-turned-support once Bitcoin reclaimed it during the subsequent bull market.
Translating Bitcoin Bear Market Gold Ratios Back to USD Price Targets
From the previous bear market low through the current bull cycle high, the 0.618 Fibonacci level sits at approximately 22.81 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin, while the 0.5 level rests at 19.07 ounces. Current price action is trading near the midpoint of these two levels, presenting what may be an attractive accumulation zone from a purchasing power perspective.
Figure 5: Applying Fibonacci levels to predict market lows for BTC versus Gold and subsequently pricing these back into USD, illustrates where Bitcoin’s price may bottom.
Multiple Fibonacci levels from different cycles create additional confluence. The 0.786 level from the current cycle translates to approximately 21.05 ounces of Gold, corresponding to a Bitcoin price around $89,160. The 0.618 level from the previous cycle aligns near $80,000 again. These convergence zones suggest that if Bitcoin were to decline further, the next meaningful technical target would be around $67,000, derived from the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at approximately 15.95 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin.
Conclusion: The Bitcoin Bear Market May Be 90% Complete Already
Bitcoin has likely been in a bear market for substantially longer than USD-only analysis suggests, with purchasing power already declining significantly since December 2024, when measured against Gold and other comparable assets. Historical Fibonacci retracement levels, when properly calibrated across multiple cycles and converted back into USD terms, point toward potential support confluence in the $67,000 to $80,000 range. While this analysis is inherently theoretical and unlikely to play out with perfect precision, the convergence of multiple data points across time horizons and valuation frameworks suggests the bear market may be approaching its conclusion sooner than many anticipate.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
Heather Morgan, known by her rap persona “Razzlekhan,” could land an 18-month prison sentence after pleading guilty to laundering cryptocurrency linked to the 2016 Bitfinex hack. Prosecutors described her role as pivotal in obscuring stolen bitcoin through complex schemes, despite not being part of the original theft. Her cooperation, and the influence of her husband, […]
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