Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Treasury Companies Are Undervalued

Bitcoin treasury companies have been hit hard by Bitcoin’s disappointing price action throughout 2025. Publicly traded firms holding significant BTC reserves are suffering the most, with leaders like (Micro)Strategy pushing aggressive accumulation amid headwinds—yet most now trade below net asset value, creating a rare opportunity for risk-tolerant strategic investors.

The Bitcoin Treasury Companies Landscape

Not all Bitcoin treasury companies are created equally. Strategy stands apart as the industry standard-bearer, the “Bitcoin among treasury companies,” as it were. The company has maintained its accumulation discipline even as its stock has suffered, recently announcing a $1.44 billion USD reserve specifically designed to pay dividends and debt obligations without forcing Bitcoin sales.

This capital buffer theoretically eliminates the need for excessive dilutive share issuance or forced BTC liquidation, a critical distinction from weaker competitors. Many will likely face shareholder pressure and potential forced selling as their stock prices decline, creating a cascade of supply pressure that could paradoxically benefit the strongest players like MSTR.

Valuation Dynamics of Bitcoin Treasury Companies

The most compelling aspect of current treasury company valuations is that they now trade below net asset value on a per-share basis. In practical terms, you can currently purchase one dollar’s worth of Bitcoin for less than one dollar through treasury company stock. This represents an arbitrage opportunity for investors, though one accompanied by elevated volatility and company-specific risks.

Strategy currently sits at a net asset value premium of less than 1, meaning the company’s market capitalization is below the value of its Bitcoin holdings alone. The upside scenario is striking. If Bitcoin reclaims its previous all-time high around $126,000, Strategy continues accumulating toward 700,000 BTC, and the market assigns even a modest 1.5x to 1.75x net asset value premium, Strategy could approach the $500 region per share.

From Weak to Strong: The Future of Bitcoin Treasury Companies

Examining Strategy’s performance during the previous Bitcoin bear market and overlaying it onto the current cycle reveals eerie alignment. The bar patterns suggest current price levels represent reasonable support, with only a catastrophic final flush justified by Bitcoin weakness providing reason to expect substantially lower levels.

As weaker treasury companies face forced selling, a consolidation thesis emerges, that Strategy and similar strong-positioned players will potentially accumulate cheap Bitcoin from distressed sellers, further concentrating holdings in the most disciplined accumulators. This dynamic mirrors Bitcoin’s own consolidation process, weaker hands sell, stronger hands accumulate, and the asset becomes more concentrated among conviction holders.

Conclusion: Opportunity in Bitcoin Treasury Companies

Bitcoin treasury companies have for the most part delivered disappointing returns in 2025, but this performance has created a window of exceptional opportunity for disciplined investors. At current valuations, Strategy is essentially selling one dollar of Bitcoin for approximately 90 cents, a discount that becomes even more attractive if Bitcoin experiences one final capitulation flush. The probability of this scenario combined with Strategy’s positioned upside creates asymmetric risk-reward worthy of small, carefully-sized positions within aggressive portfolios.

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Bitcoin Treasury Companies Are Undervalued first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Price Forecast Tools and Cycle Valuation Metrics

The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Price Forecast Tools chart provides a comprehensive framework for identifying potential price floors during bear cycles and forecasting upside targets based on on-chain fundamentals and network-derived data points. By aggregating multiple metrics, this methodology has historically called Bitcoin market cycle peaks and bottoms with remarkable accuracy. Can these tools continue to provide a basis for reliable BTC price forecasting over the next 12 months and beyond?

CVDD & Balanced Price: Bitcoin Price Cycle Low Indicators

The Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric has historically called Bitcoin price cycle lows almost to perfection across every cycle since Bitcoin’s inception. This metric begins with Coin Days Destroyed, a measure that weights Bitcoin transfers by the duration they were held before movement. For example, holding 1 Bitcoin for 100 days produces 100 coin days destroyed when transferred, while holding 0.1 Bitcoin for the same result requires 1,000 days of holding. Large spikes indicate that the network’s most experienced long-term holders are transferring significant amounts of Bitcoin.

The CVDD takes this one step further by measuring the USD valuation at the time of transfer rather than just the coin days destroyed quantity alone. This value is then multiplied by 6 million to produce the final metric. When examined across Bitcoin’s entire history, the CVDD has indicated bear market lows with accuracy extending across every cycle. Currently, the CVDD sits at approximately $45,000, though this level trends upward over time as the metric naturally evolves with new transfers and Bitcoin’s price appreciation.

The Balanced Price metric complements this downside projection by subtracting the Transferred Price (its calculation methodology is explained later) from the Realized Price, the cost basis or average accumulation price for all bitcoin holders, providing another historically accurate bear cycle low signal. 

Top Cap, Delta Top, & Terminal Price: Bitcoin Price Cycle Peak Signals

The Top Cap metric begins with the all-time average cap, the cumulative sum of Bitcoin’s market capitalisation divided by the number of days Bitcoin has existed. This all-time weighted moving average is then multiplied by 35 to produce the Top Cap. Historically, this metric has been remarkably accurate for calling bull market peaks, though in recent cycles it has exceeded actual price action, currently projecting to a seemingly unattainable ~$620,000.

The Delta Top refines this approach by using the realized cap. The realized cap currently stands at approximately $1.1 trillion. Delta Top is calculated by subtracting the average cap from the realized cap and multiplying by 7. This metric has been accurate historically, though it was slightly off during the 2021 cycle, and it is looking more likely that it will not be reached in the current cycle, currently sitting at approximately $270,000.

The Terminal Price metric provides another layer of sophistication. It calculates the Transferred Price, the sum of Coin Days Destroyed divided by the Circulating Bitcoin Supply, and multiplies this by 21 (the maximum Bitcoin supply). This produces a price level based on the fundamental assumption of total network value distributed across all 21 million Bitcoins. Historically, the Terminal Price has been one of the most accurate top-calling tools, marking previous cycle peaks nearly to perfection. This metric currently sits at approximately $290,000, not too far above Delta Top’s current value.

Bitcoin Cycle Master: Aggregated Bitcoin Price Fair Value Framework

Integrating all these individual metrics into a unified framework produces the Bitcoin Cycle Master chart, which combines these on-chain forecast tools for confluence. This has helped to identify where Bitcoin may be in a cycle, either close to bull or bear market highs, or oscillating around its ‘Fair Market Value’.

Examining the past two cycles demonstrates the utility of this framework. When Bitcoin trades above the Fair Market Value band, bull markets have historically entered exponential growth phases. When beneath this band, Bitcoin typically signals bear market conditions where defensive positioning and aggressive accumulation become appropriate strategies. 

Projecting Bitcoin Price Forward: 2026 Cycle Scenarios

By extracting raw data from the price forecast tools and projecting the slope of both the CVDD and Terminal Price forward to the end of 2026, two scenarios emerge. The CVDD, which has moved at a predictable rate of change over the past 90 days, projects to approximately $80,000 by December 31, 2026. This level could represent a potential bear cycle floor, though Bitcoin has already traded beneath this level during recent downward moves, suggesting current prices may already offer compelling value.

The Terminal Price, extrapolating its current upward trend, could reach over $500,000 by the end of 2026, though this projection could only be a realistic outcome with a bullish macro environment with significant liquidity injections and broad realization of Bitcoin’s fundamental value proposition. 

Conclusion: What Bitcoin Price Forecast Tools Are Signaling for 2025–2026

These Bitcoin price forecast tools, formulated using on-chain fundamental and network-derived data points rather than psychological levels or traditional technical analysis applicable to equities and commodities, have historically provided exceptional accuracy in calling market cycle peaks and bottoms. Forecasting based on their current values suggests a potential bear cycle floor in the $80,000 range by the end of 2026, with upside targets potentially reaching over $500,000, depending on macro conditions and capital flows. 

While these projections represent extrapolations of current trends rather than certainties, the historical accuracy and on-chain foundation of these metrics warrant serious consideration. Investors and traders should continue monitoring both the raw price forecast tools and the aggregated Bitcoin Cycle Master framework to identify fair valuation levels, extreme overvaluation warnings, and attractive accumulation zones within the current cycle. However, all projections change daily as new data emerges, making reactive analysis superior to long-term prediction.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Bitcoin: Using On-Chain Data To Value & Predict The Price

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Bitcoin Price Forecast Tools and Cycle Valuation Metrics first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin Magazine

Is Bitcoin Miner Capitulation A Golden Opportunity?

Bitcoin miner hash rate has experienced a significant decline since mid-October, falling sharply despite years of near-uninterrupted growth. This pullback reflects genuine bitcoin miner capitulation driven by deteriorating profitability in the face of Bitcoin’s recent price weakness. However, could this bitcoin miner shift actually provide a golden opportunity?

Bitcoin Miner Profitability

The Bitcoin network’s total computational hash rate has entered a notable downtrend since October 18th, reversing what has otherwise been a consistent multi-year climb. The hash ribbons indicator, which compares the 30-day moving average of hash rate against the 60-day moving average, has turned red, indicating miner capitulation. When the longer-term moving average crosses above the shorter-term one, it signals that miners are withdrawing computational power from the network, typically because profit margins have become too thin to justify continued operations at previous levels.

The Puell Multiple, which measures daily USD earnings for miners relative to their 365 day moving average, recently collapsed to approximately 0.67. This means miners are earning only two-thirds of their yearly average revenue. The metric reveals a concerning trend, as Bitcoin has matured and the network has grown, mining economics have become increasingly compressed.

Bitcoin Miner Revenue Under Pressure

A deeper issue lies in the composition of miner revenue. Bitcoin miners derive income from two sources: block subsidies and transaction fees. The current block subsidy stands at 3.125 BTC per block, representing the lion’s share of miner revenue. However, transaction fees, which could theoretically offset declining subsidies over time, have entered a long-term downtrend throughout this cycle. When measured in USD terms, miner fee revenue is now practically negligible compared to the block subsidy.

This creates an uncomfortable math problem. The block subsidy decreases by 50% every four years at the halving. For miner revenue to remain constant, Bitcoin’s price must reliably double every four years. This requirement becomes increasingly unrealistic as Bitcoin matures and approaches tens or hundreds of trillions in market capitalization. Within 20-30 years, the halvings would require Bitcoin prices of tens of millions of dollars per unit merely to maintain current revenue levels for miners.

Structural Hurdles for Bitcoin Miners

When block subsidies eventually decline toward zero over the coming decades, transaction fees must theoretically fill that gap. Yet the current cycle demonstrates that fee revenue is moving in the opposite direction and declining as users migrate to more efficient layer-two solutions like the Lightning Network and as on-chain transaction volume stagnates.

Layer-two scaling solutions are good for Bitcoin’s utility and lower users’ costs. Similarly, fewer on-chain transactions reducing congestion and fees is positive for accessibility. But these developments and improvements that make Bitcoin more practical as a payments layer simultaneously reduce the revenue available to secure the base layer long-term.

Conclusion: Bitcoin Miner Capitulation as Opportunity

Bitcoin miners are undoubtedly capitulating, driven by declining price action and deteriorating profit margins. For tactical traders and accumulation-minded investors, this represents a favorable window to scale into positions, particularly once the hash ribbons reversal signal emerges. History suggests such periods rarely persist without eventually producing sharp Bitcoin rallies.

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Is Bitcoin Miner Capitulation A Golden Opportunity? first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin Magazine

Why The Bitcoin Bear Market Is Almost Finished

Bitcoin has struggled to maintain a sustained correlation with Gold, recently only moving in unison during market downturns. However, examining Bitcoin’s price action through the lens of Gold rather than USD reveals a more complete picture of the current market cycle. By measuring Bitcoin’s true purchasing power against comparable assets, we can identify potential support levels and gauge where the bear market cycle may be approaching its conclusion.

Bitcoin Bear Market Officially Begins Below Key Support

Breaking beneath the 350-day moving average at about $100,000 and the significant psychological 6-figure barrier marked the functional entry into bear market territory, with Bitcoin declining approximately 20% immediately thereafter. From a technical perspective, trading beneath The Golden Ratio Multiplier moving average has historically indicated Bitcoin entering a bear cycle, though the narrative becomes more interesting when measured against Gold rather than USD.

The Bitcoin versus Gold chart tells a notably different story than the USD chart. Bitcoin topped out in December 2024 and has since declined over 50% from that level, whereas the USD valuation peaked in October 2025, significantly beneath the highs set the prior year. This divergence suggests that Bitcoin may have been in a bear market for considerably longer than most observers realize. Looking at historical Bitcoin bear cycles when measured in Gold, we can see patterns that suggest the current pullback may already be approaching critical support zones.

The 2015 bear cycle bottomed at an 86% retracement lasting 406 days. The 2017 cycle saw 364 days and an 84% decline. The previous bear cycle produced a 76% drawdown over 399 days. Currently, at the time of this analysis, Bitcoin is down 51% in 350 days when measured against Gold. While percentage drawdowns have been diminishing as Bitcoin’s market cap grows and more capital flows into the market, this trend reflects the rising tide of institutional adoption and lost Bitcoin supply rather than a fundamental change in cycle dynamics.

Multi-Cycle Confluence Signals Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Approaching

Rather than relying solely on percentage drawdowns and time elapsed, Fibonacci retracement levels mapped across multiple cycles provide greater precision. Using a Fibonacci retracement tool from bottom to top across historical cycles reveals striking levels of confluence.

In the 2015-2018 cycle, the bear market bottom occurred at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which corresponded to approximately 2.56 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin. The resulting price action marked the bottom with remarkable clarity, far cleaner than the equivalent USD chart. Moving forward to the 2018-2022 cycle, the bear market bottom aligned almost perfectly with the 0.5 level at approximately 9.74 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin. This level later acted as meaningful resistance-turned-support once Bitcoin reclaimed it during the subsequent bull market.

Translating Bitcoin Bear Market Gold Ratios Back to USD Price Targets

From the previous bear market low through the current bull cycle high, the 0.618 Fibonacci level sits at approximately 22.81 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin, while the 0.5 level rests at 19.07 ounces. Current price action is trading near the midpoint of these two levels, presenting what may be an attractive accumulation zone from a purchasing power perspective.

Multiple Fibonacci levels from different cycles create additional confluence. The 0.786 level from the current cycle translates to approximately 21.05 ounces of Gold, corresponding to a Bitcoin price around $89,160. The 0.618 level from the previous cycle aligns near $80,000 again. These convergence zones suggest that if Bitcoin were to decline further, the next meaningful technical target would be around $67,000, derived from the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at approximately 15.95 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin.

Conclusion: The Bitcoin Bear Market May Be 90% Complete Already

Bitcoin has likely been in a bear market for substantially longer than USD-only analysis suggests, with purchasing power already declining significantly since December 2024, when measured against Gold and other comparable assets. Historical Fibonacci retracement levels, when properly calibrated across multiple cycles and converted back into USD terms, point toward potential support confluence in the $67,000 to $80,000 range. While this analysis is inherently theoretical and unlikely to play out with perfect precision, the convergence of multiple data points across time horizons and valuation frameworks suggests the bear market may be approaching its conclusion sooner than many anticipate.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Proof This Bitcoin Bear Market May Be OVER Already

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

---

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Why The Bitcoin Bear Market Is Almost Finished first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.