Bitcoin Magazine

Why Bitcoin Price Top Indicators Failed This Cycle

Bitcoin price’s most popular top-calling indicators failed to trigger during the latest bull market, leaving observers questioning whether the underlying data is now broken. This analysis examines several widely used tools, explores why they underperformed this cycle, and outlines how they can be adapted to Bitcoin’s evolving market structure.

Bitcoin Price Forecast Tools

On the Bitcoin Magazine Pro Price Forecast Tools indicator, the latest bull market never reached several historically reliable top models such as Delta Top, Terminal Price, and Top Cap, with the latter not even touched in the prior cycle. The Bitcoin Investor Tool, which uses a 2-year moving average multiplied by 5, also remained untested, and the Pi Cycle Top Indicator failed to provide precise timing or price signals despite being closely watched by many traders. This has led to understandable questions around whether these models have stopped working or whether Bitcoin’s behavior has outgrown them.

Bitcoin is an evolving asset with a changing market structure, liquidity, and participant mix. Rather than assuming the data is broken, it may be more appropriate to adapt the metrics to a different lens and time horizon. The goal is not to abandon these tools, but to make them more robust and responsive to a market that no longer delivers the same exponential upside and violent cycle tops as earlier years.

Bitcoin Price: From Fixed Thresholds to Dynamic Signals

The MVRV Z-Score 2-Year Rolling metric has been a core tool for identifying overheated conditions, but in this cycle, it did not call the bull market peak particularly well. It registered a major spike as Bitcoin first pushed through the $73,000–$74,000 zone, yet failed to give a clean exit signal for the later stages of the advance. Currently, the metric is printing the most oversold readings on record.

To address this shortcoming, the MVRV Z-Score can be recalibrated on a 6-month rolling basis rather than two years, making it more sensitive to recent conditions while still anchored in realized value dynamics. Alongside the shorter lookback, it is helpful to move away from fixed thresholds and instead use dynamic distribution-based bands. By mapping the percentage of days spent above or below different Z-Score levels, it becomes possible to mark zones such as the top 5%, as well as the bottom 5% on the downside. During this cycle, Bitcoin did register signals in the upper bands as it first broke above $100,000, and historically, moves into the top 5% region have coincided reasonably well with cycle peaks, even if they did not capture the exact tick high.

---

Cyber Monday Sale: 40% Off Annual Plans!

The BEST saving of the year is here. Get 40% off all our annual plans.

• Unlock +150 Bitcoin charts.
• Access Indicator alerts – so you never miss a thing.
• Private TradingView indicators of your favorite Bitcoin charts.
• Members-only Reports and Insights.
• API access & more all for a FRACTION of standard industry prices.

All for just $17/month with the Black Friday deal. This is our biggest sale all year!

---

Bitcoin Price: Faster-Reaction Metrics for Today’s Cycle

Beyond valuation tools, activity-based indicators like Coin Days Destroyed can be made more useful by shortening their lookback periods. A 90-day moving average of Coin Days Destroyed has historically tracked large waves of long-term holder distribution, but the more muted and choppy nature of the current cycle means that a 30-day moving average is often more informative. With Bitcoin no longer delivering the same parabolic moves, metrics need to react faster to reflect today’s shallower yet still important waves of profit-taking and investor rotation.

Excluding the latest readings and focusing on the advance up to the all-time high of this cycle, the 30-day Coin Days Destroyed metric flashed almost exactly at the cycle peak. It also triggered earlier as Bitcoin first crossed roughly $73,000–$74,000, and again when price moved through $100,000, effectively flagging all key distribution waves. While this is easy to observe in hindsight, it reinforces that on-chain supply and demand signals remain relevant; the task is to calibrate them to current volatility regimes and market depth.

Bitcoin Price Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) provides another lens on realised profit-taking, but the raw series can be noisy, with sharp spikes, frequent mean reversion, and large moves both during rallies and during intra-bull capitulations. To extract more actionable information, a 28-day (monthly) change in SOPR can be used instead. This smoothed alternative highlights when the pace of profit realisation is accelerating to extreme levels over a short window, cutting through the noise of intra-cycle volatility.

Applied to the latest cycle, the monthly SOPR change produced distinct peaks as Bitcoin first moved through the $73,000–$74,000 zone, again above $100,000, and once more around the $120,000 region. While none of these perfectly captured the final wick high, they each marked phases of intense profit-taking pressure consistent with cycle exhaustion. Using monthly changes rather than the raw metric makes the signal clearer, especially when combined with cross-asset views of Bitcoin’s purchasing power versus equities and Gold.

Bitcoin Price Cycle Conclusion: Adapt or Fall Behind

In hindsight, many popular top-calling indicators did work throughout this bull market when measured through the right lens and on appropriate timeframes. The key principle remains: react to the data, do not attempt to predict. Rather than waiting for any single metric to perfectly call the top, a basket of adapted indicators, interpreted through the lens of purchasing power and changing market dynamics, can increase the probability of identifying when Bitcoin is overheating and when it is transitioning into a more favorable accumulation phase. The coming months will focus on refining these models to ensure they remain viable not just historically, but robustly accurate going forward.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Why Didn’t The Bitcoin Top Calling Metrics Work?

---

For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

---

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Why Bitcoin Price Top Indicators Failed This Cycle first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

XRP’s derivatives market has undergone a marked regime shift, with leverage collapsing and funding normalising in a way that signals a clear retreat from aggressive speculative positioning. The strongest evidence comes from Glassnode’s latest post on November 30, which frames the current phase as a structural, not merely tactical, pause in XRP leverage.

XRP Derivatives Unwind Accelerates

“XRP’s futures OI has fallen from 1.7B XRP in early October to 0.7B XRP (~59% flush-out). Paired with the funding rate dropping from ~0.01% to 0.001% (7D-SMA), 10/10 marked a structural pause in XRP speculators’ appetite to bet aggressively on upside,” Glassnode’s CryptoVizArt wrote on X.

Open interest at 1.7 billion XRP in early October reflected a heavily leveraged market, with large notional positions stacked in futures and perpetuals. The subsequent collapse to 0.7 billion XRP implies that around one billion XRP of derivatives exposure has been closed, liquidated, or otherwise unwound. Such a reduction is not just a marginal trimming of risk; it is a wholesale deleveraging that strips out a large part of the speculative layer sitting on top of the spot market.

The funding-rate move is equally telling. A 7-day SMA around 0.01% had previously indicated a consistent long bias, with traders willing to pay a recurring fee to maintain leveraged upside exposure. The compression to roughly 0.001% pushes funding close to neutral. In perpetual futures, that transition typically occurs when demand for leveraged longs fades and the market no longer tolerates a meaningful premium to hold long positions.

Glassnode’s description of October 10 crash as the point that “marked a structural pause” captures this shift in regime: the market moved from persistent long crowding to a far more cautious, balanced stance. The November 30 post sits on top of a broader context Glassnode has been documenting through November.

In November 8, the firm highlighted how profit taking has behaved during the recent drawdown: “Unlike previous profit realization waves that aligned with rallies, since late September, as XRP fell from $3.09 (~25%) to $2.30, profit realization volume (7D-SMA) surged by ~240%, from $65M/day to $220M/day. This divergence underscores distribution into weakness, not strength.” Rather than de-risking into strength, profitable holders have been realizing gains as price fell, reinforcing the deleveraging signalled by futures data.

On November 17, Glassnode turned to supply dynamics, noting that “the share of XRP supply in profit has fallen to 58.5%, the lowest since Nov 2024, when price was $0.53. Today, despite trading ~4× higher ($2.15), 41.5% of supply (~26.5B XRP) sits in loss — a clear sign of a top-heavy and structurally fragile market dominated by late buyers.” Those on-chain figures provide the background to the 30 November derivatives snapshot: a market whose ownership is skewed toward late entrants now sits on substantial unrealized losses, while the leverage that previously amplified upside has been largely flushed.

Taken together, Glassnode’s data on futures open interest and funding rates crystallise the current state of XRP: a violent 59% leverage reset, a near-neutral funding regime, and a speculative cohort that has stepped back from paying for upside, all layered on top of a top-heavy holder base.

At press time, XRP traded at $2.04.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Price Dip Or New Bear Market?

Bitcoin price has started to show clear signs of weakness, and the recent move back below six figures has forced a reassessment of the near-term outlook. With several important technical and on-chain levels now lost, I have recalibrated my base case so that the probability of retesting new all-time highs in the coming weeks has fallen below 50%. That can change quickly if major levels are reclaimed, but until then, the conditions resemble a market shifting away from trending strength and toward a deeper corrective phase.

Bitcoin Price: Is “Buying The Dip” Still the Right Move?

Bitcoin is already in a sizeable pullback, but buying every decline isn’t always the optimal approach outside of a confirmed bull trend. In a bear-market environment, what appear to be attractive dips can still lead to significantly lower prices. Short-term rallies and sharp retracements are typical in downtrending markets, so reacting to data rather than pre-emptively predicting a bottom becomes far more important.

This pattern of multiple dips is evident when we analyze the Short-Term Holder Realized Price chart during the last cycle. It is also clear to see how this metric acted as a key resistance throughout this phase, with sustained recovery only experienced once BTC reclaimed STH Realized Price levels.  

There is one caveat: if price meaningfully reclaims key levels, the entire picture shifts. That’s why a small allocation on this dip can make sense, while holding off on further buying until we see deeper macro confluence is a more defensive approach.

---

Black Friday Sale: 40% Off Annual Plans!

The BEST saving of the year is here. Get 40% off all our annual plans.

Unlock +100 Bitcoin charts.

• Access Indicator alerts – so you never miss a thing.
• Private TradingView indicators of your favorite Bitcoin charts.
• Members-only Reports and Insights.
• Many new charts and features coming soon.

All for just $17/month with the Black Friday deal. This is our biggest sale all year!

---

Bitcoin Price: Key Levels You Must Watch Right Now

The MVRV Z-Score and the Bitcoin Realized Price give a clearer sense of where the broader market’s cost basis sits. The realized cost basis of the network currently clusters around the mid-$50,000s, but this figure continues rising on a daily basis.

A similar narrative emerges from the 200-Week Moving Average, as this also currently sits in the mid-$50,000. Historically, points where this metric meets price have presented strong long-term accumulation opportunities.

Those levels rise slowly each day, meaning a potential bottom could form at $60,000, $65,000, or higher, depending on how long Bitcoin spends trending downward. The important point is that value tends to emerge when spot price trades close to the average historical cost of the network, and confluence is provided from key levels of buy support.

Bitcoin Price: What Supply & Demand Signals Are Really Saying

Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple remains an important metric in identifying stress points among long-term and experienced holders. Very low readings suggest large, old coins are not moving, which has often aligned with market bottoms. A sharp spike, however, can indicate capitulation pressure, which often accompanies or precedes significant market turning points.

Right now, the metric continues rising as price falls, suggesting many holders are distributing into weakness. That’s not characteristic of a cycle bottom, where forced selling is usually extreme and compressed into a short window. At this stage, the market still appears to be unwinding rather than exhausting. Alongside this, Long-Term Holder Supply has been in a downtrend. Ideally, this stabilises and begins to increase again before calling any major bottom, as bottoms form when the most patient participants begin holding, not exiting.

Bitcoin Price: What Funding Rates Reveal About Capitulation (Or Lack Thereof)

Periods of peak fear tend to show up clearly through heavy short positioning, negative funding as shown in the Bitcoin Funding Rates, and large realized losses. Those conditions signal that weaker hands have capitulated, and stronger hands are absorbing that supply.

The market has not yet shown the signature panic selling and shorting often associated with major cyclical lows. Without stress in derivatives and without a rush of loss-taking, it is difficult to argue that the market has fully flushed out.

Bitcoin Price: The Exact Levels That Must Be Reclaimed to Kill the Bear Case

Suppose the bearish scenario is wrong, which of course would be the preferred outcome. In that case, Bitcoin needs to begin reclaiming key structural levels, including the $100,000 psychological zone, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, and the 350-day moving average as depicted in the Golden Ratio Multiplier chart.

Temporary wicks or single-day closes are not enough. Sustained closes above these levels, along with strength in risk assets globally, would suggest the trend is shifting. But until that happens, the data leans cautious.

Bitcoin Price Outlook: Final Thoughts on Dip vs. New Bear Market

Since breaking below several important levels, the outlook has become more defensive. There’s no structural weakness in Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals, but the short-term market structure doesn’t resemble a healthy bull trend.

For now, the recommended strategy consists of not buying at every dip, waiting for confluence before heavy scaling in, respecting macro conditions and ratio trends, and only turning aggressive once the market proves strength. Most investors never identify the exact top or bottom; the goal is to position near areas of high probability with enough confirmation to avoid months of unnecessary drawdown.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: My Bitcoin Strategy Going Forward

---

For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market analysis!

---

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Bitcoin Price Dip Or New Bear Market? first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin Magazine

Mathematically Predicting Bitcoin Price Floor

While many are still focused on how high the bitcoin price could go during this current bull market (although given current price action, maybe not!), it’s equally important to prepare for what comes next. Here we’ll look at the data and mathematics that can help us estimate where Bitcoin’s next bear market low could occur — not as a prediction, but as a framework based on prior cycles, on-chain valuation metrics, and even the fundamental valuations of BTC.

Cycle Master: Modeling Historical Bitcoin Price Bottoms

One of the most consistently accurate models for identifying Bitcoin’s cyclical bottoms is what we refer to as the Bitcoin Cycle Master chart, which collates a number of on-chain metrics to create bands around price with certain valuation levels.

Historically, this green “Cycle Lows” line has pinpointed Bitcoin’s macro bottoms with near perfection. From $160 in 2015 to $3,200 in 2018, and again at $15,500 in late 2022. As of today, this band sits around $43,000 and rising daily, which provides a useful baseline to estimate how far Bitcoin could decline in the next full cycle.

Diminishing Drawdowns: Why Each Bitcoin Price Bear Market Hurts Less

Alongside this, we can look at the raw MVRV Ratio, which measures Bitcoin’s market price versus its realized price (the average cost basis of all coins). Historically, during deep bear markets, Bitcoin tends to fall to 0.75x of its realized price, meaning the market price trades about 25% below the network’s aggregate cost basis.

This repeatability gives us a powerful anchor for estimating potential downside when combined with the trend of diminishing drawdowns. While Bitcoin’s earliest cycles saw declines as deep as 88%, that figure has been steadily compressing, to 80% in 2018 and 75% in 2022. Projecting that same trend forward, a continuation of diminishing volatility would imply that the next bear market could bring a ~70% retracement from cycle highs.

Forecasting the Next Bitcoin Price Top and Bottom

Before we estimate the next low, we need a reasonable assumption for where this bull market could peak. Based on historical MVRV multiples and slope-trended realized price growth, Bitcoin has recently tended to top at roughly 2.5x its realized price. If that relationship holds and the realized price continues trending upward, it suggests a potential top somewhere near $180,000 per BTC in late 2025.

If that’s the case, and Bitcoin were to follow its historical one-year bear market lag into 2027, a 70% retracement from that level would bring the next major cycle low to approximately $55,000–$60,000, based on the current realized price trajectory at that time. These prices also align nicely with Bitcoin’s choppy consolidation range from last year to give some technical confluence.

Bitcoin Price and the Rising Cost of Production

One of the most reliable long-term valuation metrics for Bitcoin is its production cost, the estimated electrical expense to mine one BTC. This metric has historically aligned closely with Bitcoin’s deepest bear market lows. After every halving, the production cost doubles, forming a rising structural floor under the price over time.

When Bitcoin trades below its production cost, it signals miner stress and typically coincides with generational accumulation opportunities. As of the April 2024 halving, the new cost basis rose sharply, and each time Bitcoin has dipped near or slightly below it since, it has marked local bottoms and subsequent sharp reversals. This value currently sits at ~$70,000 but fluctuates daily.

Conclusion: The Next Bitcoin Price Cycle Will Likely Be Shallower

Every Bitcoin cycle has been accompanied by a wave of euphoria claiming, “This time is different.” But the data continues to show otherwise. While institutional adoption and broader financial integration have indeed changed Bitcoin’s structure, they haven’t erased its cyclicality.

The data suggests the next bear market will likely be shallower, reflecting a more mature and liquidity-driven environment. A retracement toward the $55,000–$70,000 zone would not signal collapse, but it would mark the continuation of Bitcoin’s historical rhythm of expansion and reset.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Using Math & Data To Predict The Bitcoin Bear Market Low

---

For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

---

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Mathematically Predicting Bitcoin Price Floor first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.