The Bitcoin price volatility is once again drawing attention to MicroStrategy, the company whose strategy has become a major market reference point, with billions in accumulated BTC and a track record of aggressive buying during downturns. As traders search for stability in a shaky market, Strategy’s stance is being watched closely for what it might signal about the next phase of BTC’s trend.
Why MicroStrategy’s Next Move Could Redirect Market Momentum
Bitcoin’s recent volatility has put MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of BTC, in the limelight. Walter Bloomberg has revealed on X that analysts are watching closely to see if the company could influence the cryptocurrency’s price if it sells some of its holdings.
According to JPMorgan, Strategy can avoid forced sales as long as its enterprise value-to-BTC holdings ratio stays above 1.0, which currently stands at 1.13 BTC. However, analysts continue to debunk these claims, accusing JPMorgan of spreading misinformation about market manipulation and the company.
Walter stated that if the ratio remains above this level, BTC markets may stabilize and ease recent market pressure. Due to the market pressure, the firm has slowed its BTC purchases, adding 9,062 BTC last month compared to 134,480 BTC a year ago, reflecting a more cautious accumulation approach amid a broader crypto downturn. Its stock has dropped roughly 42% over the past three months.
Additionally, challenges include the potential exclusion from MSCI indices, which could trigger $8.8 billion in passive fund outflows if index funds are forced to divest. However, MicroStrategy holds a $1.4 billion reserve for dividends and interest, helping it avoid selling its BTC even if the price falls further. In the meantime, there is no proof that MicroStrategy is in danger of liquidation.
How Institutional Behavior Builds A Higher Floor For Bitcoin
In a market speculation, Bitcoin is currently experiencing one of the most significant capital migrations in its history, fueled by institutional adoption. Analyst Matthew noted that the current BTC market cycle from 2022 to 2025 has already absorbed an unprecedented amount of new capital, surpassing all previous BTC cycles. This growth is a reflection of the market’s maturity and the ecosystem’s innovative approach to liquidity through regulated instruments.
Furthermore, the network has incorporated more than $732 billion in fresh capital in the current cycle, surpassing the $388 billion that was injected during the 2018 to 2022 cycle. At that time, the surge helped push BTC market capitalization to an all-time high record of $1.1 trillion, a metric that indicates a much higher aggregate cost base for new institutional investors.
Meanwhile, the total settlement volume in the decentralized BTC protocol was approximately $6.9 trillion in just 90 days. Despite this, the number of active on-chain entities dropped from 240,000 to 170,000 per day, which is a reflection of liquidity migration of capital flows into spot ETFs.
Market expert Shanaka recently explained how a historical event is unfolding with MicroStrategy and its Bitcoin strategy. This comes as the company faces a negative valuation from Wall Street while MSCI considers whether to remove MSTR from its indices.
MicroStrategy’s Market Cap Drops Below the Value Of Bitcoin Holdings
In an X post, Shanaka noted that MicroStrategy, which is the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, is now worth less than its BTC holdings. The company currently holds 650,000 BTC, valued at around $60 billion, while the MSTR stock has a market cap of $55 billion. The expert noted that Wall Street is valuing the company at a negative based on this.
He further remarked that this is the sustained NAV inversion since MicroStrategy began the Bitcoin model in 2020. Shanaka noted that the company has created a $1.44 billion emergency reserve to pay dividends. This came after the CEO Phong Le admitted that they might have to sell BTC to fund dividend payments if the mNAV drops below 1.
MicroStrategy’s woes could deepen as MSCI will decide by January whether to expel the company from global stock indices. MSCI is considering whether companies that hold Bitcoin should be regarded as funds or trusts rather than as companies. JPMorgan estimates the company could see $8.8 billion in outflows if other index providers make a similar move.
Shanaka described the math as “merciless,” noting that MicroStrategy has $8.2 billion in debt, $7.8 billion in preferred stock, and $16 billion in total obligations against a $45.7 billion shell. Meanwhile, the company currently holds its BTC at an average cost of $74,436, which the expert noted is 15% above breakeven. As such, he remarked that one sustained drop erases every gain since 2020.
Shanaka stated that MicroStrategy’s current situation is not just about one company but about whether corporations can hold sound money without being destroyed by the very system they sought to escape. He added that the largest experiment in corporate Bitcoin adoption is breaking in real time.
Saylor Confirms Talks With MSCI Over Potential Exclusion
According to a Reuters report, Michael Saylor confirmed that MicroStrategy is in talks with MSCI over a potential exclusion from their indices. MSCI is expected to decide by January 15 whether to remove digital-asset treasury companies that buy Bitcoin and other crypto assets, amid concerns that they are classified as investment funds.
Saylor opined that MicroStrategy’s potential exclusion from MSCI indices won’t make any difference. He explained that his company is currently leveraged by a multiple of 1.11 and could survive a 95% Bitcoin crash. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that Phong Le has stated that it is unlikely they will sell any BTC over the next three years following the creation of the USD reserves, which should be sufficient for dividend payments during this period.
Concerns regarding the potential exclusion of Strategy (MSTR) from the MSCI index emerged last week, with estimates from JPMorgan analysts indicating that such a move could result in approximately $2 billion to $8 billion in outflows.
Amid mounting concerns within the crypto community, Michael Saylor confirmed that the company is in discussions with MSCI regarding its potential exclusion from the provider’s indices.
Michael Saylor Weighs In On Exclusion Concerns
MSCI has stated that by January 15, it will decide whether to remove companies whose business models focus on purchasing cryptocurrencies, amid concerns that these firms resemble investment funds, which are currently ineligible for index inclusion.
Reuters reported that Saylor acknowledged the discussions with MSCI but expressed skepticism regarding JPMorgan’s projections of potential outflows. He commented, “It won’t make any difference, in my opinion,” regarding the implications of a possible exclusion.
Saylor noted that the equity associated with Strategy is inherently volatile due to its significant reliance on Bitcoin’s (BTC) price. He cautioned, “If Bitcoin falls 30% or 40%, then the equity is going to fall more, because the equity is built to fall.”
Currently, Strategy operates with a leverage ratio of 1.11, and Saylor indicated that the company could withstand a steep decline of 95% in Bitcoin prices.
Reports from NewsBTC indicated that Saylor Strategy’s position emphasizing that it is not merely a passive Bitcoin holding entity. Instead, he highlighted that the company functions as a software firm with a proactive financial strategy, countering the narrative surrounding MSCI’s concerns.
Strategy Establishes New USD Reserve
The recent fluctuations in Bitcoin prices have reignited fears of a potential bear market, raising questions about whether Strategy would consider selling some of its substantial Bitcoin reserves, currently exceeding 650,000 coins.
This speculation intensified after Strategy CEO Phong Le addressed the possibility of selling some holdings during an interview on the “What Bitcoin Did” podcast.
Le stated that if the company’s stock trades below the value of its Bitcoin holdings and it is unable to raise additional capital for preferred dividends, a sale might become unavoidable.
“If the stock trades below the value of our Bitcoin, then mathematically we would have to sell some Bitcoin. It would be the last resort,” he explained.
To support this vision, the Virginia-based company recently announced the establishment of a $1.44 billion reserve fund allocated for dividend payments on preferred stock and to meet its debt obligations.
The newly created reserve is funded through proceeds from its at-the-market stock offering. The company aims to maintain a balance sufficient to cover at least 12 months of dividends, with ambitions to extend this coverage to 24 months or more in the future.
Saylor remarked, “Establishing a USD Reserve to complement our BTC Reserve marks the next step in our evolution. We believe it will better position us to navigate short-term market volatility while delivering on our vision of being the world’s leading issuer of Digital Credit.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading just above $93,000, marking a 4.5% increase over the past 24 hours. MSTR, the stock of the investment firm Strategy, traded up 2% in the premarket.
Featured image from Bloomberg, chart from TradingView.com
Strategy CEO Phong Le signaled the company may eventually lend part of its bitcoin holdings once large US banks fully enter the market with institutional-grade custody and lending infrastructure, while stressing that the core strategy remains to “buy and hold bitcoin.”
Building A Dollar Buffer Around A Bitcoin Core
Speaking on Bloomberg Crypto on December 2, Le outlined why the company built a $1.4 billion dollar reserve to fund dividends and interest, even as BTC price has endured a sharp drawdown from its early-October high near $125,000 to a brutal November that saw a further 17% decline before a rebound above $92,000.
Le framed Strategy’s balance sheet as a barbell between long-term BTC exposure and short-term cash obligations: “We have long-term strategy, which is to buy and hold bitcoin. That is our primary treasury reserve asset. And we have short-term dollar obligations created because of the dividends we have on our preferred notes.”
To avoid being forced to sell BTC when the company’s equity trades close to or below the value of its underlying holdings, Strategy created a dedicated US dollar reserve: “If we want to really create a bulletproof balance sheet, let’s have the global reserve digital asset, bitcoin, for the long term, and the global reserve digital currency for the short term. That is why I created the US dollar reserve, to pay down dividends in the short term any case that we needed.”
Le said Strategy recently issued equity “in 8.5 days” to pre-fund roughly 21 months of preferred dividends, and now aims to maintain a cash buffer equal to “two to three years of dividends,” a policy he expects to maintain for “the next five or 10 years” before reassessing as the capital structure evolves.
He defended the company’s insistence on continuing the dividend, arguing that suspensions “create fear, uncertainty, doubt” and harm equity holders: “Our objective is to pay the dividend into perpetuity. Never say never, but I think preserving the payment of the dividend […] is the right thing for the short term. It is also important for the bitcoin asset class.”
At the same time, he sought to defuse concerns that Strategy is overleveraged or at imminent risk of selling BTC. Le said Strategy has “12% leverage” on its debt alone and “27% leverage” including preferreds, versus “60% to 80%” at a typical US public company. If the company continues to grow its cash reserves to cover multiple years of dividends, he said, “really [we’re] talking about the end of 2028” before any realistic scenario where selling bitcoin to fund dividends might be considered.
Le also pushed back against MSCI’s suggestion that “digital asset treasury” companies may resemble funds and could be excluded from indices. He argued Strategy is a “fully integrated, vertically integrated bitcoin operating company” that buys bitcoin, issues securities, creates products, generates operating income and employs full corporate staff, and therefore should trade at a premium reflecting its ability “to grow our treasury and our operating income over time.”
From HODL To Considering Bitcoin Lending
On lending, Le said Strategy has deliberately kept its business “very simple” so far: “We buy and we hold bitcoin.”
However, that may change as traditional finance ramps up BTC offerings: “Over the course of the next year […] big, real banks will offer custody, lending service and staking and otherwise. I think when they enter that space and when they have different counterparties, it is something we would consider and be enthusiastic about.”
Le added that Strategy has already had “a lot of constructive discussions” with large US banks exploring bitcoin custody, exchange and lending and is “excited to partner with them” once those platforms are fully in place.
Strategy CEO Phong Le has revealed the instance in which his company may be forced to sell its Bitcoin holdings. This comes amid concerns about the MSTR stock crash, which puts the company at risk of seeing its mNAV drop below 1.
Strategy CEO Reveals When They Will Sell Bitcoin
During an interview on the ‘What Bitcoin Did’ podcast, the Strategy CEO said they could sell Bitcoin to fund dividend payments on their preferred shares if the mNAV is trading below 1. He alluded to the BTC yield, which is their primary KPI, and that under 1x mNAV, it is more “creative” to sell their BTC holdings to pay the dividends.
The Strategy CEO explained that they typically raise capital when their mNAV is above 1 to fulfill their obligations, even when it is below 1. He alluded to the 2022 crypto winter when they bought back their Bitcoin-backed loans as proof that they had prepared in advance for such market conditions. However, when they are unable to raise capital, Phong Le stated that they will have no option but to sell their BTC holdings.
Strategy data shows that their mNAV is currently at 1.19. Meanwhile, the company currently holds 649,870 BTC, worth around $55 billion. With the MSTR stock on a downtrend, Michael Saylor’s company still faces the risk of seeing its mNAV fall below 1 for a sustained period. TradingView data shows that the stock is now down over 40% year-to-date (YTD) from a 2025 high of around $455.
There were recently rumors that Strategy supposedly sold some of its Bitcoin holdings, which Saylor quickly denied. The company then went on to make one of its largest purchases this year, buying 8,178 for $836 million. This formed part of the proceeds from the company’s STRE offering.
Saylor Teases Another Bitcoin Purchase
In an X post, Michael Saylor teased another Bitcoin purchase from Strategy. He posted the company’s BTC portfolio tracker with the caption, “What if we start adding green dots?” It is worth noting that these conventional Sunday posts have usually preceded a BTC purchase announcement by the company the following day.
Based on this, Strategy likely bought more Bitcoin between November 24 and 30 last week. This comes amid the Bitcoin downtrend, with the flagship crypto again dropping below the psychological $90,000 level. Besides the BTC crash, the possibility of an exclusion from MSCI indices is another factor that paints a bearish picture for Saylor’s company. The MSCI will decide by January next year whether treasury companies like Strategy should remain in their indices.
At the time of writing, the BTC price is trading at around $86,000, down over 5% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
MSCI is considering a new rule that would remove companies from its Global Investable Market Indexes if 50% or more of their assets are held in digital assets such as Bitcoin. The proposal appears simple, but the implications are far-reaching. It would affect companies like Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), Eric and Donald Trump Jr’s American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC), and dozens of others across global markets whose business models are fully legitimate, fully regulated, and fully aligned with long-standing corporate treasury practices.
The purpose of this document is to explain what MSCI is proposing, why the concerns raised around Bitcoin treasury companies are overstated, and why excluding these firms would undermine benchmark neutrality, reduce representativeness, and introduce more instability—not less—into the indexing system.
1. What MSCI Is Proposing
MSCI launched a consultation to determine whether companies whose primary activity involves Bitcoin or other digital-asset treasury management should be excluded from its flagship equity indices if their digital-asset holdings exceed 50% of total assets. The proposed implementation date is February 2026.
The proposal would sweep in a broad set of companies:
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), a major software and business-intelligence firm that holds Bitcoin as a treasury reserve.
American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC), a new public company created by Eric and Donald Trump with a Bitcoin-focused balance sheet.
Miners, infrastructure firms, and diversified operating companies that use Bitcoin as a long-term inflation hedge or capital reserve.
These companies are all publicly traded operating entities with audited financials, real products, real customers, and established governance. None are “Bitcoin ETFs.” Their only distinction is a treasury strategy that includes a liquid, globally traded asset.
2. The JPMorgan Warning — And the Reality Behind It
JPMorgan analysts recently warned that Strategy could face up to $2.8B in passive outflows if MSCI removes it from its indices, and up to $8.8B if other index providers follow.
Their analysis correctly identifies the mechanical nature of passive flows. But it misses the real context.
Strategy has traded more than $1 trillion in volume this year. The “catastrophic” $2.8B scenario represents:
Less than one average trading day
~12% of a typical week
~3% of a typical month
0.26% of year-to-date trading flow
In liquidity terms, this is immaterial. The narrative of a liquidity crisis does not match market structure reality. The larger issue is not the outflow itself—it is the precedent that index exclusion would set.
If benchmark providers begin removing companies because of the composition of their treasury assets, the definition of what qualifies as an “eligible company” becomes non-neutral.
MSCI $MSTR DE-LISTING FEAR MONGERING: THE $2.8 BILLION LIE
First: Strategy is at ZERO risk of being delisted from other indices. Second: J.P. Morgan says an MSCI delisting would trigger a $2.8 Billion forced sell off. They are banking on you not knowing the math.
MSCI’s policy position also conflicts with the composition of MSCI’s own assets.
MSCI reports roughly $5.3B in total assets. More than 70%—about $3.7B—is goodwill and intangible assets. These are non-liquid, non-marketable accounting entries that cannot be sold or marked to market. They are not verifiable in the same way that digital assets are.
Bitcoin, by contrast:
Trades globally 24/7
Has transparent price discovery
Is fully auditable and mark-to-market
Is more liquid than nearly any corporate treasury asset outside sovereign cash
The proposal would penalize companies for holding an asset that is far more liquid, transparent, and objectively priced than the intangibles that dominate MSCI’s own balance sheet.
MSCI is a New York based, pubco ( $MSCI) with ~$5.3B in assets on its balance sheet.
70% ($3.7B) of MSCI's assets are classified as “intangible” (goodwill and other intangible assets).
At the same time, MSCI is proposing to exclude companies whose digital asset holdings… pic.twitter.com/dyVwRR2AhH
MSCI is a global standard-setter. Its benchmarks are used by trillions of dollars in capital allocation. These indices are governed by widely accepted principles—neutrality, representativeness, and stability. The proposed digital-asset threshold contradicts all three.
Neutrality
Benchmarks must avoid arbitrary discrimination among lawful business strategies. Companies are not removed for holding:
Large cash positions
Gold reserves
Foreign exchange reserves
Commodities
Real estate
Receivables that exceed 50% of assets
Digital assets are the only treasury asset singled out for exclusion. Bitcoin is legal, regulated, and widely held by institutions worldwide.
Representativeness
Indices are meant to reflect investable markets—not curate them.
Bitcoin treasury strategies are increasingly used by corporations of all sizes as a long-term capital-preservation tool. Removing these companies reduces the accuracy and completeness of MSCI’s indices, giving investors a distorted view of the corporate landscape.
Stability
The 50% threshold creates a binary cliff effect. Bitcoin routinely moves 10–20% in normal trading. A company could fall in and out of index eligibility multiple times a year simply due to price action, forcing:
Unnecessary turnover
Additional tracking error
Higher fund implementation costs
Index providers typically avoid rules that amplify volatility. This rule would introduce it.
5. The Market Impact of Exclusion
Forced Selling
If MSCI proceeds, passive index funds would need to sell holdings in affected companies. Yet the real-world impact is marginal because:
Strategy and ABTC are highly liquid
Flows represent a tiny fraction of normal trading volume
Active managers are free to continue holding or increasing exposure
Access to Capital
Analysts warn that exclusion could “signal” risk. But markets adapt quickly. As long as a company is:
Liquid
Transparent
Able to raise capital
Able to communicate its treasury policy It remains investable. Index exclusion is an inconvenience—not a structural impairment.
Precedent Risk
If MSCI embeds asset-based exclusion rules, it sets a template for removing companies based on their savings decisions rather than their business fundamentals.
That is a path toward politicizing global benchmarks.
6. The Global Competitiveness Problem
Bitcoin treasury strategies are expanding internationally:
Japan (Metaplanet)
Germany (Aifinyo)
Europe (Capital B)
Latin America (multiple mining and infrastructure firms)
North America (Strategy, ABTC, miners, and energy-Bitcoin hybrids)
If MSCI excludes these companies disproportionately, U.S. and Western companies are placed at a competitive disadvantage relative to jurisdictions that embrace digital capital.
Indexes are meant to reflect markets—not pick national winners and losers.
7. MSCI Already Knows That Exclusion Creates Distortion
MSCI’s recent handling of Metaplanet’s public offering shows it understands the risks of “reverse turnover.” To avoid index churn, MSCI chose not to implement the event at the time of offering.
This acknowledgement underscores a broader truth: rigid rules can destabilize indices. A digital-asset threshold creates similar fragility on a much larger scale.
8. Better Alternatives Exist
MSCI can achieve transparency and analytical clarity without excluding lawful operating companies.
A. Enhanced Disclosure
Require standardized reporting of digital-asset holdings in public filings. This gives investors clarity without altering index composition.
B. Classification or Sub-Sector Label
Add a category such as “Digital Asset Treasury–Integrated” to help investors differentiate business models.
C. Liquidity or Governance Screens
If concerns are about liquidity, governance, or volatility, MSCI should use the criteria it already applies uniformly across sectors.
None require exclusion.
9. Why the Proposal Should Be Withdrawn
The proposal does not solve a real problem. It creates several:
Reduces representativeness of global indices
Violates neutrality by discriminating against a specific treasury asset
Creates unnecessary turnover for passive funds
Damages global competitiveness
Sets a precedent for non-neutral index construction
Bitcoin is money. Companies should not be penalized for saving money—or for choosing a long-term treasury asset that is more liquid, more transparent, and more objectively priced than most corporate intangibles.
Indexes must reflect markets as they are—not as gatekeepers prefer them to be.
MSCI should withdraw the proposal and maintain the neutrality that has made its benchmarks trusted across global capital markets.
Disclaimer: This content was prepared on behalf of Bitcoin For Corporations for informational purposes only. It reflects the author’s own analysis and opinion and should not be relied upon as investment advice. Nothing in this article constitutes an offer, invitation, or solicitation to purchase, sell, or subscribe for any security or financial product.
TD Cowen analysts say Strategy’s stock could face continued pressure due to an impending MSCI review.
The firm expects that PBTCs like Strategy will be removed from all MSCI indexes this February. A formal decision is expected around mid-January.
Cowen called the potential removal “capricious” but emphasized that investors should prepare for sustained selling pressure. The analysts note that Strategy is not a fund, trust, or holding company. Instead, it is a public operating company. Its $500 million software business generates all of its revenue.
Meanwhile, its Bitcoin treasury operations are innovative and active, offering unique Bitcoin-backed securities.
“Removing Strategy from broad indexes simply because of its Bitcoin focus feels arbitrary,” the analysts wrote. Cowen questioned whether MSCI’s rationale reflects a bias against crypto rather than any strict classification criteria. MSCI has cited concerns that PBTCs may resemble investment funds, which are ineligible for index inclusion.
Cowen counters that Strategy’s structure is clearly different.
Strategy and MSCI exclusion
The stakes are high. JPMorgan recently warned that excluding Strategy from MSCI could trigger $2.8 billion in passive outflows. If other indexes follow, the total could reach $8.8 billion. Strategy’s market cap currently sits near $59 billion, with roughly $9 billion held in passive index-tracking vehicles.
Any forced selling could exacerbate an already depressed share price, JPMorgan argued.
Strategy’s shares have fallen more than Bitcoin in recent months. The company’s mNAV — the ratio of market value to Bitcoin holdings — has dropped to just above 1.1, its lowest since the pandemic. Investors have seen the stock decline over 60% since last November. Its preferred shares and bond issuances have also sold off sharply.
Despite the volatility, Cowen recently long-maintained a bullish long-term outlook. The bank estimated thatthe company could hold 815,000 BTC by 2027. At that level, intrinsic Bitcoin value per share could support a price target of $585, implying roughly 170% upside from current levels.
Cowen attributes the recent weakness to market volatility and index-related fears, rather than a failure of Strategy’s core accumulation model.
Michael Saylor, Strategy’s chairman, dismissed index concerns. In a recent statement, he emphasized that the company is a fully operating business with active software and Bitcoin-backed credit programs. Saylor has repeatedly highlighted its innovative financial products, including structured Bitcoin credit instruments like $STRK and $STRC, which offer yields above traditional credit markets.
Saylor envisions accumulating $1 trillion in Bitcoin and growing the company 20–30% annually, leveraging long-term appreciation to create a massive store of digital collateral.
From this base, Saylor plans to issue Bitcoin-backed credit at yields significantly higher than traditional fiat systems, potentially 2–4% above corporate or sovereign debt, offering safer, over-collateralized alternatives.
Saylor believes that other large scale traditional finance companies can follow the Strategy model with their income.
Cowen also points to potential tailwinds. A possible inclusion in the S&P 500 could broaden institutional ownership and stabilize flows into the stock. Additional regulatory clarity around Bitcoin could further bolster investor confidence.
Strategy’s rise underscores the growing role of Bitcoin in global finance. Its inclusion in indexes like the Nasdaq 100 and MSCI benchmarks has historically funneled crypto exposure into mainstream portfolios.
If MSCI excludes the company, Cowen argues, the market may see short-term disruption but long-term adoption trends remain intact.
Bitcoin itself has struggled over the past month, dropping from an October high above $126,000 to around $88,000 recently. Even amid this sell-off, Strategy continues to execute large Bitcoin purchases, now holding more than 3% of total supply.
Bitcoin bulls need to keep the price above $84,000 after last week’s close. If it falls, weak support sits near $75,000, with stronger buying likely in the $72,000–$69,000 zone. A deeper drop targets the “$58k gang” area around the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $57,700.
Michael Saylor pushed back on recent reports warning that Strategy could face billions in passive outflows if MSCI excludes the company from major equity indices.
In a statement on X, Saylor said that Strategy is “not a fund, not a trust, and not a holding company.” He described the firm as a publicly traded operating company with a $500 million software business and a unique treasury strategy that uses Bitcoin as productive capital.
Saylor highlighted the company’s recent activity, including five public offerings of digital credit securities — $STRK, $STRF, $STRD, $STRC, and $STRE — representing over $7.7 billion in notional value.
He also pointed to Stretch ($STRC), a Bitcoin-backed credit instrument that offers variable monthly USD yields to institutional and retail investors.
“Funds and trusts passively hold assets. Holding companies sit on investments. We create, structure, issue, and operate,” Saylor wrote. “No passive vehicle or holding company could do what we’re doing.”
He described Strategy as a new kind of enterprise: a Bitcoin-backed structured finance company innovating in both capital markets and software.
Saylor added that index classification does not define the company. “Our strategy is long-term, our conviction in Bitcoin is unwavering, and our mission remains unchanged: to build the world’s first digital monetary institution on a foundation of sound money and financial innovation.”
Will Strategy get removed from Nasdaq 100?
The statement comes as JPMorgan analysts warned that MSCI’s potential exclusion of Strategy from major indices could trigger $2.8 billion in outflows, rising to $8.8 billion if other index providers follow.
Strategy’s market cap sits around $59 billion, with nearly $9 billion held in passive index-tracking vehicles. Analysts said any exclusion could increase selling pressure, widen funding spreads, and reduce trading liquidity.
Strategy’s inclusion in indices such as the Nasdaq 100, MSCI USA, and MSCI World has long helped channel the Bitcoin trade into mainstream portfolios. However, MSCI is reportedly evaluating whether companies with large digital-asset holdings should remain in traditional equity benchmarks.
Market participants increasingly see digital-asset-heavy companies as closer to investment funds, which are ineligible for index inclusion.
Despite all the recent bitcoin volatility and concerns about potential outflows, the company continues to pursue its long-term vision of a Bitcoin-backed financial enterprise, aiming to create new financial products and a digitally native monetary institution.
On October 10, bitcoin and the broader crypto market crashed. Some believe it was because Trump threatened tariffs on China, but some contend that the broader crash was triggered when MSCI announced it was reviewing whether companies that hold crypto as a core business, like MSTR, should be classified as “funds” rather than operating companies. Some contend that ‘smart money’ anticipated this risk immediately after MSCI’s announcement, leading to the sharp market drop, with the outcome now hinging on MSCI’s January 15, 2026 decision.
Trillions of dollars in Bitcoin
Earlier this year in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine, Saylor outlined an ambitious vision to build a trillion-dollar Bitcoin balance sheet, using it as a foundation to reshape global finance.
He envisions accumulating $1 trillion in Bitcoin and growing it 20–30% annually, leveraging long-term appreciation to create a massive store of digital collateral.
From this base, Saylor plans to issue Bitcoin-backed credit at yields significantly higher than traditional fiat systems, potentially 2–4% above corporate or sovereign debt, offering safer, over-collateralized alternatives.
He anticipates this could revitalize credit markets, equity indexes, and corporate balance sheets while creating new financial products, including higher-yield savings accounts, money market funds, and insurance services denominated in Bitcoin.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is experiencing extreme levels of sell pressure and its price is dipping near the $80,000 range. Bitcoin’s all-time high came only six weeks ago when it hit prices above $126,000.
Strategy’s stock, $MSTR, is trading at $167.95 down over 5% on the day and over 15% over the last five trading days.
Strategy — the original “bitcoin-on-NASDAQ” proxy — is now facing its most consequential structural risk since Michael Saylor began converting the firm into a leveraged BTC holding vehicle five years ago.
A new JPMorgan research note warns that Strategy is “at risk of exclusion from major equity indices” as MSCI approaches a key January 15 decision on whether companies with large digital-asset treasuries belong in traditional stock benchmarks.
MSCI is weighing a rule that would remove companies whose digital-asset holdings exceed 50% of total assets — a category in which Strategy sits at the extreme.
With the company’s market cap hovering around $59 billion and nearly $9 billion held in passive index-tracking vehicles, analysts say any exclusion could unleash severe mechanical selling pressure.
Outflows could amount to $2.8 billion if MSCI removes Strategy — and as much as $8.8 billion if other index providers follow, the analysts noted.
The current state of MSTR
The warning lands at a vulnerable moment. Strategy shares have fallen more than bitcoin itself in recent months as the company’s once-lofty premium — the “mNAV” spread between enterprise value and bitcoin holdings — has collapsed to just above 1.1, the lowest since the pandemic.
MSTR has lost roughly 40% in value over the last six months, with 11% coming in the last five trading days.
The model that powered Strategy’s rise — raise equity, buy bitcoin, benefit from reflexivity, repeat — now faces structural headwinds: The stock is down over 60% since last November’s high.
Its perpetual preferred shares have sold off sharply, with yields on its 10.5% notes rising to 11.5%. A recent euro-denominated preferred issuance broke below its discounted offer price within two weeks.
Strategy’s inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, MSCI USA, MSCI World, and other benchmarks has quietly funneled the bitcoin trade into mainstream portfolios for years. Passive ETF and mutual-fund flows helped sustain Strategy’s liquidity, valuation, and visibility with institutional allocators.
But MSCI’s October consultation revealed something new according to JPMorgan: Market participants increasingly view digital-asset treasury companies as closer to investment funds than operating businesses. Investment funds are not eligible for index inclusion — and that’s the heart of Strategy’s problem.
MSCI said it does not “speculate on future index changes,” but is evaluating whether digital-asset-heavy balance sheets should remain inside equity benchmarks.
Active managers aren’t required to mimic index changes, but JPMorgan warns that removal alone could spark reputational damage, widen funding spreads, and thin trading activity — making the stock less attractive to large institutions.
Strategy’s rise — and its current risk — underscores how deeply bitcoin has seeped into global finance through indirect channels.
At one point, analysts speculated the company might gain entry into the S&P 500. Instead, the digital-asset treasury model now looks increasingly fragile because Bitcoin is down 30% from its October high and crypto markets have shed over $1 trillion in value.
Strategy’s January 15 inflection point
JPMorgan believes Strategy’s dramatic underperformance relative to BTC is now primarily driven by index-exclusion fears, not bitcoin weakness. If MSCI rules negatively, the company’s valuation could become almost fully tethered to its underlying BTC — with its mNAV ratio drifting closer to 1.0.
That would eliminate the reflexive premium that powered the last half-decade of Saylor’s strategy.
Earlier this year in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine earlier this year, Saylor outlined an ambitious vision to build a trillion-dollar Bitcoin balance sheet, using it as a foundation to reshape global finance.
He envisions accumulating $1 trillion in Bitcoin and growing it 20–30% annually, leveraging long-term appreciation to create a massive store of digital collateral.
From this base, Saylor plans to issue Bitcoin-backed credit at yields significantly higher than traditional fiat systems, potentially 2–4% above corporate or sovereign debt, offering safer, over-collateralized alternatives.
He anticipates this could revitalize credit markets, equity indexes, and corporate balance sheets while creating new financial products, including higher-yield savings accounts, money market funds, and insurance services denominated in Bitcoin.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) released its third-quarter earnings after market close on Oct. 30, posting net income of $2.8 billion.
Diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $8.42, surpassing analyst expectations of $8.15. As of Oct. 26, 2025, Strategy held 640,808 BTC, acquired for a total of $47.44 billion at an average price of $74,032 per coin.
The company reported a year-to-date Bitcoin yield of 26%, generating $12.9 billion in gains amid the ongoing 2025 crypto bull market.
Looking forward, Strategy projects full-year 2025 operating income of $34 billion and net income of $24 billion, or $80 per share — highlighting its transformation from a business intelligence firm into a de facto corporate Bitcoin investment vehicle.
Total revenues for Q3 reached $128.7 million, up 10.9% year-over-year and above the $118.43 million analysts had forecast.
The firm’s Bitcoin holdings have already produced gains of 116,555 BTC in 2025, translating to $12.9 billion in dollar terms based on an average BTC price of roughly $110,600 as of Oct. 24, nearing its full-year target of $20 billion.
Michael Saylor is the epitome of a bitcoin bull
Michael Saylor said recently at Money 20/20, “By the time the bankers tell you it’s a good idea, it’ll cost $10 million per Bitcoin.” He added that Bitcoin is currently at a “99% discount.”
NEW: Michael Saylor says, “By the time the bankers tell you it’s a good idea, it’ll cost $10 million per Bitcoin.”
And Saylor’s public discourse towards bitcoin backs this belief up. Saylor reiterated his bullish outlook on Bitcoin, projecting $150,000 by the end of 2025 and up to $1 million within four to eight years.
He cited growing institutional adoption, driven by industry shifts, new investment products, and Strategy’s recent B-minus credit rating, as key catalysts.
Saylor highlighted Strategy’s digital credit instruments offering 8–12.5% yields, tax-efficient returns, and tailored risk profiles. He noted increasing acceptance of Bitcoin by major U.S. banks and praised supportive regulatory policies.
Strategy with a trillion-dollar Bitcoin balance sheet
In a recent interview with Bitcoin Magazine, Michael Saylor outlined his ambitious vision for Strategy: building a trillion-dollar Bitcoin balance sheet to transform global finance.
Saylor sees his firm — and potentially other Bitcoin treasury companies — accumulating massive Bitcoin holdings, leveraging the cryptocurrency’s historical 21% annual appreciation to supercharge capital growth.
Central to his plan is the creation of Bitcoin-backed credit markets offering yields significantly higher than traditional fiat debt. By over-collateralizing capital, Saylor argues the system could be safer than AAA corporate debt while providing healthier returns for investors.
This approach, he suggests, could revitalize credit markets worldwide, offering alternatives to low-yield bonds that dominate Europe and Japan.
Saylor also envisions Bitcoin becoming embedded across corporate, banking, and sovereign balance sheets, gradually turning traditional equity indexes into indirect Bitcoin vehicles.
This integration could boost public companies, redefine savings accounts and money market funds, and allow tech giants like Apple and Google to bring hundreds of millions into the digital economy.
Those interested in learning more about Strategy’s earnings report can watch in full detail here.
Tune in for the Strategy (MSTR) Q3 Earnings Call 2025, featuring Strategy Executives Michael Saylor, Phong Le, Andrew Kang and Shirish Jajodia.Includes a liv...
At Money 20/20 in Las Vegas, Michael Saylor gave a familiar, bullish sentiment for Bitcoin, predicting it could hit $150,000 by the end of 2025 and potentially reach $1 million within the next four to eight years.
Speaking to CNBC, Saylor outlined both the industry-wide shifts in digital assets and the evolving investment products his company is offering, framing them as key drivers for institutional adoption.
Saylor highlighted a milestone for Strategy: the company recently received its first credit rating from S&P — B-minus — making it the first Bitcoin-focused treasury company to be rated.
“It’s a very auspicious start because it represents institutional adoption of Bitcoin-backed credit,” he said, noting that this rating opens the door to hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of dollars in capital that previously would not invest in unrated instruments.
Strategy for different investor profiles
Strategy has a 70% chance of joining the S&P 500 before year-end, according to 10X Research. Its upcoming Q3 2025 earnings, expected Thursday, could show a $3.8 billion gain from fair-value Bitcoin accounting.
Strike, Strife, Stride, and Stretch offer combinations of principal protection, dividends, and yields from roughly 8% to 12.5%, each tailored to different investor profiles — from those seeking amplified Bitcoin exposure to conservative investors needing low-volatility returns.
Uniquely, these instruments generate tax-free dividends structured as a return of capital, giving investors an effective yield comparable to 16–20% on a tax-equivalent basis. “A treasury company built on Bitcoin is the most tax-efficient fixed income generator in the world,” Saylor said.
Saylor also underscored the growing acceptance of Bitcoin within traditional finance. Major U.S. banks, including JP Morgan, Bank of America, and BNY Mellon, are now beginning to offer loans collateralized by Bitcoin, while some are moving toward custodying Bitcoin outright.
“The train has left the station,” Saylor said. “Everybody’s moving forward.”
He argued that the evolving infrastructure, supported by pro-crypto policies from the White House, Treasury, SEC, and CFTC, has created “probably the best 12 months in the history of the industry.”
Saylor sees Bitcoin at $150,000 by EOY
Looking at the broader digital economy, Saylor emphasized the dual role of Bitcoin and digital assets. Bitcoin serves as a long-term store of value — digital capital — while stablecoins and other tokenized currencies act as medium-of-exchange instruments in an increasingly AI-driven financial landscape.
Regarding market trends, Saylor acknowledged the volatility in Bitcoin has moderated as the industry matures, offering more derivatives and hedging instruments.
Analysts covering Strategy and the Bitcoin sector, he said, largely expect the cryptocurrency to reach $150,000 by year-end, with longer-term potential for $1 million per coin.
Over the next two decades, Saylor forecasts Bitcoin could appreciate by roughly 30% annually.
For the first time in financial history, a major credit rating agency has formally evaluated a company built on a bitcoin-backed credit model. In news covered by Bitcoin Magazine, the S&P Global Ratings has assigned Strategy Inc (MSTR) a ‘B-’ Issuer Credit Rating with a Stable outlook, recognizing not just the company, but the emergence of Bitcoin as collateral inside the credit system. This marks a watershed moment for corporate finance.Bitcoin-backed credit is no longer theoretical. It is now a rated financial reality.
Why This Moment Matters
Until now, Bitcoin had been accepted by equity markets, ETFs, and corporate treasury conversations — but credit markets remained untouched. Credit markets are where legitimacy is ultimately decided because they determine who can borrow, at what cost, and against which assets.
By rating Strategy Inc, S&P has implicitly acknowledged:
Bitcoin can underpin structured debt and preferred equity.
A bitcoin-backed credit strategy can be modeled, rated, and priced using traditional frameworks.
Bitcoin is shifting from speculative asset to recognized collateral within corporate capital structures.
This is not a marketing milestone — it is a structural one. Bitcoin has entered the language of risk-adjusted return, yield, and covenants.
How S&P Interpreted Strategy’s Bitcoin-Backed Capital Model
The rating is speculative grade, but the Stable outlook is critical. It signals S&P’s belief that Strategy can continue to service obligations and access capital markets without selling its Bitcoin reserves — a foundational principle of bitcoin-backed credit.
S&P’s analysis mentions several possible weaknesses:
High concentration of assets in Bitcoin
Low U.S. dollar liquidity and negative risk-adjusted capital under S&P’s methodology
Currency mismatch: long Bitcoin, short U.S. dollar debt obligations
However, they also credited Strategy with unique structural strengths:
No near-term debt maturities before 2027–2028
Proven access to capital markets — both equity and debt
A capital stack purpose-built to accumulate Bitcoin without diluting shareholders
Active liability management via convertible debt and preferred stock instruments
In short, S&P is signaling that bitcoin-backed credit can function — if managed with discipline.
Implications for the S&P 500 and Institutional Legitimacy
Strategy Inc met the S&P 500 inclusion criteria in profitability and market capitalization but was passed over in 2024, widely believed to be due to its Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet. That decision now appears less defensible.
With a formal credit rating, the company shifts from “unrated anomaly” to “rated issuer.” For institutional capital, that distinction matters.
Index committees can now reference a risk rating — not just a narrative.
Treasury teams and insurers can benchmark exposure to bitcoin-backed credit against traditional corporate debt.
This increases (not guarantees) the probability of future index inclusion and passive capital flows.
Bitcoin entering equity indices begins with Bitcoin entering the credit models behind them.
Bitcoin-Backed Credit: The Ideal State of Treasury Strategy
This rating does more than validate Strategy — it validates the architecture of bitcoin-backed credit as the superior evolution of corporate treasury management.
Phase 1 was equity-funded Bitcoin accumulation — high growth but shareholder dilution. Phase 2 introduced convertible debt and preferred equity — allowing companies to acquire Bitcoin through capital markets rather than operating earnings. Phase 3, now underway, is full institutional recognition of bitcoin-backed credit — rated, benchmarked, and capable of scaling.
This is the endgame:
Use capital markets to borrow in fiat
Use proceeds to acquire Bitcoin
Service liabilities without selling reserves
Increase Bitcoin-per-share over time, without issuing new common stock
With S&P formally rating Strategy’s issuer credit, this model moves from innovation to infrastructure.
Why Corporate Finance Leaders Need to Pay Attention
This rating does not compel companies to adopt Bitcoin. But it removes the claim that Bitcoin cannot be integrated into traditional credit systems.
From now on:
Bitcoin can be factored into risk-weighted capital models and treasury policy.
Credit and liquidity committees must understand how bitcoin-backed credit affects financing costs, refinancing risk, and balance sheet leverage.
Investors can now compare Bitcoin-based capital structures against other high-yield or hybrid debt strategies.
Boards can no longer dismiss Bitcoin as “unratable” or “unclassified.”
A New Chapter for Corporate Finance and Capital Markets
What makes this moment different isn’t that another institution “acknowledged” Bitcoin. That’s happened before with ETFs, GAAP accounting changes, and treasury allocations.
What’s different is where the recognition has now occurred: Not in equity markets. Not in payment networks. But in credit — the foundation of corporate finance and monetary systems.
When a credit rating agency like S&P evaluates a company built on Bitcoin, it does three things that have never happened before:
It forces Bitcoin into risk models normally reserved for banks, sovereigns, and investment-grade corporations.
It legitimizes bitcoin-backed credit as a structure that can be analyzed, refinanced, and scaled — not dismissed as speculative.
It signals to other corporates and lenders that they must now understand Bitcoin not as an investment, but as collateral.
This rating does not mean the model is risk-free. It means the model is real enough to underwrite, stress test, and lend against.
That is the real inflection point — not that S&P approved of Bitcoin, but that they were forced to measure it.
Disclaimer: This content was written on behalf of Bitcoin For Corporations. This article is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as an invitation or solicitation to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities.
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