Despite the Bitcoin price recovery above the crucial $90,000 threshold—a level that has historically served as a supportive floor for the cryptocurrency—the market is exhibiting signs that a further correction may be imminent.
Bitcoin Price Recovery At Risk?
Market expert Rekt Fencer recently shared insights on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, suggesting that the Bitcoin price might be forming what he calls a “massive bull trap.”
This term refers to a deceptive bullish signal in which the price briefly surpasses a resistance level, in this case, the $90,000 mark, only to reverse into a decline. Such movements can entrap investors who bought in during the peak, leading to significant losses.
Fencer pointed out a troubling pattern reminiscent of early 2022 when Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average (MA)—currently positioned above $102,300—before experiencing a severe decline of roughly 60%, plummeting below $20,000 by June of that year.
He indicated that the recent price recovery following major drops to $84,000 should not be interpreted as a signal of near-term success, especially since the Bitcoin price is currently trading under the 50-week MA.
If historical trends repeat, this could mean that Bitcoin might see a significant drop, potentially reaching around $36,200, which could potentially represent the low point of the bearish cycle for the cryptocurrency. On the other hand, there are analysts who retain a bullish outlook.
BTC Bottom In Sight?
Market researcher and analyst Miles Deutscher expressed a confident sentiment, stating he believes there is a 91.5% likelihood that the Bitcoin price has hit its bottom, based on his analysis of key developments.
He noted that recent weeks have been dominated by negative news stories, including concerns surrounding Tether (USDT) and the implications of China’s actions on crypto, which he asserts often mark local price bottoms.
Moreover, Deutscher pointed out a shift in market flows from predominantly bearish to bullish. He explained that the trading environment has recently seen a resurgence in buying momentum, with large investors, or “OG whales,” ceasing their selling. This change has been reflected in the order books, indicating a possible stabilization in market sentiment.
Additionally, the liquidity landscape appears to be shifting, with market conditions tightening in recent months. The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair known for dovish policies, coupled with the official end of quantitative tightening (QT), could further influence market dynamics in favor of buyers.
Deutscher concluded by emphasizing that given the extreme levels of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) in the market, combined with improvements in trading flows, he believes that the odds favor the notion that the Bitcoin price has indeed reached its bottom.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
On 3rd December, official filings and press releases announced Twenty One Capital’s upcoming debut on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), positioning the company as one of the largest Bitcoin treasury firms ever to enter public markets. The listing brings a dedicated Bitcoin balance sheet into Wall Street’s core ecosystem, signaling a structural shift in how institutional investors can gain long-term BTC exposure.
A Bitcoin Treasury Giant Steps Onto The NYSE Stage
Twenty One Capital’s NYSE entry is anchored by its business combination with Cantor Equity Partners (CEP), the SPAC serving as the public-market vehicle for the transaction. CEP shareholders have already approved the merger, and the deal is expected to close around December 8. Once completed, the combined entity will operate as Twenty One Capital, Inc. and begin trading on December 9 under the ticker XXI.
The original announcement, released through official press channels and SEC-related filings, emphasized CEP’s central role in enabling the listing and establishing the company’s public-market structure. CEO Jack Mallers also highlighted the milestone on X, noting the company’s readiness for its debut.
According to this press announcement, Twenty One Capital will debut with an estimated 43,500 BTC, a reserve valued near $4 billion at recent market levels. This immediately places it among the top corporate Bitcoin treasuries globally. Unlike companies that hold Bitcoin as a secondary reserve, Twenty One is specifically engineered around a Bitcoin-native model. The firm intends to report “Bitcoin-per-share,” providing investors a transparent look at how much BTC each equity unit represents. It also pledges full, on-chain proof-of-reserves, positioning itself as a high-transparency asset custodian at launch.
This model effectively transforms Twenty One into a regulated balance-sheet wrapper for Bitcoin. It lowers operational friction for institutional allocators who want direct BTC exposure without the complexities of crypto custody, self-storage, or exchange-based acquisition. By listing on the NYSE rather than relying on ETFs or derivatives, Twenty One creates a regulated public equity vehicle that holds, safeguards, and transparently tracks Bitcoin for institutional and retail investors alike.
Wall Street’s New On-Ramp To Institutional BTC Exposure
The market impact of Twenty One’s listing reflects the accelerating integration of Bitcoin into mainstream financial architecture. The company’s backers—including Tether-linked entities, Bitfinex-aligned interests, SoftBank-connected capital, and Cantor’s public-markets network—provide a cross-sector foundation aimed at bridging crypto-native philosophies with institutional liquidity channels.
Under this structure, Twenty One aims to become a long-term institutional treasury vessel—a regulated balance sheet that accumulates BTC and gives investors an equity-linked way to participate in Bitcoin’s upside without engaging directly with crypto custody or trading infrastructure.
As the NYSE debut approaches, Twenty One Capital embodies a pivot point where BTC’s role in capital markets shifts from speculative asset to institutional treasury instrument. If XXI attracts sustained flow, it could set a new blueprint for how corporate entities engage with Bitcoin—anchoring Wall Street’s next phase of digital-asset adoption.
The Binance Blockchain Week event in Dubai became the center of a high-stakes showdown between traditional and digital innovation, with Bitcoin and gold going head-to-head. Investors, tech enthusiasts, and financial experts watched closely as Binance founder Changpeng Zhao expertly debated renowned Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff, making a compelling argument for why Bitcoin is better than gold.
Binance Founder Dominates Bitcoin And Gold Debate
During the Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai, Schiff and CZ faced off in a high-profile debate over the value of Bitcoin versus Gold. Schiff defended gold as a safe, stable, and tangible asset while the Binance founder made a compelling case for Bitcoin’s adoption, utility, value, and global reach.
Throughout the debate, which lasted over an hour, CZ consistently demonstrated the practical advantages of Bitcoin, leaving Schiff’s gold argument largely on the defensive. The Binance founder emphasized Bitcoin’s transparent and predictable supply and its role in the modern financial systems. He pointed to hundreds of millions of users who rely on Bitcoin for payments, savings, and transfers.
Schiff argued that Bitcoin lacks inherent value and is mainly driven by hype and faith that its price will rise. He stated that gold remains tangible, centuries old, scarce, and valuable in industry, making it superior to BTC. He further asserted that “nobody needs” Bitcoin and that the cryptocurrency is “backed by nothing.”
Practical demonstrations played a key role in the debate between Schiff and CZ. The Binance founder explained how Bitcoin and crypto payments already improve financial efficiency, especially in emerging markets. Schiff questioned whether these transactions truly count as money, since merchants ultimately receive traditional currency. CZ’s response highlighted the importance of adoption and network effects, noting that people who use BTC directly for payments give it real-world significance.
The debate also considered the preferences of younger generations. CZ asked Schiff whether millennials and Gen Z favoured Bitcoin or gold. The Bitcoin critic responded sharply, suggesting that they would choose gold. He pointed out that, with many young investors losing money on BTC, gold offers a safer, more appealing alternative. The Binance founder countered that younger people understand digital value more intuitively and prefer mobile, borderless, and censorship-resistant assets.
Digital Value And The Future Of Money
The debate between CZ and Schiff also highlighted the changing definition of money. Bitcoin functions as a decentralized network that enables instant settlement and transparent verification. Its adoption has also helped evolve the financial economy, facilitating faster and more seamless cross-border payments. Schiff argued that gold’s scarcity and industrial demand preserve its value and make it a reliable hedge against economic uncertainty.
Tokenization also became a point of agreement during the discussion, with Schiff emphasizing that gold can be digitized and tokenized for easier ownership and distribution without moving the physical metal. CZ contended that Bitcoin offers similar advantages while also enabling global financial inclusion. They also discussed the supply of both assets, with the Binance founder noting that Bitcoin has a visible supply, while gold doesn’t.
They also talked about the performance of both assets over the years. Schiff argued that gold had outperformed BTC over the past four years. CZ contended that Bitcoin has far outpaced gold over the last 8 years, and since its launch in 2009, it has skyrocketed from a few cents to an ATH above $126,000. He concluded his debate, predicting that Bitcoin’s growth will outpace gold over time.
Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher has issued one of the most forceful bottom calls of this cycle, assigning a 91.5% probability that Bitcoin’s low is already in. In a X thread on December 4, he wrote: “F*ck it. I’m putting my neck on the line here. I’m 91.5% certain that the BTC bottom is in. And if it is, A LOT of people are about to be caught offside.”
Is The Bitcoin Bottom In?
Deutscher bases his conviction on four “pillars”: market reaction to news, the historical behaviour of FUD events, a shift in flows, and an improving global liquidity backdrop. Each pillar is scored in an internal model that culminates in a 91.5/100 bullish reading.
He starts with price behaviour versus headlines. Over recent days, he notes, the market has digested an “influx of bad news” – including renewed Tether FUD, another round of “China banning crypto,” MicroStrategy scrutiny and concerns around a Bank of Japan–driven yen carry trade unwind.
“Despite all this bad news, price rallied,” he writes, calling this “the first time since the major selloff began” that Bitcoin has responded positively to a destructive news cycle. He underscores an old trading adage: “The reaction to news is more important than the news itself. This tells you everything you need to know.”
The second pillar is a systematic look at whether such FUD clusters tend to coincide with local lows. Deutscher says he backtested “every single time Tether, China, BOJ, and Microstrategy FUD entered the market” in a similar way. His conclusion is stark: “Every single time, these FUD events marked a local bottom. Tether FUD = bottom.
China ‘banning’ crypto = bottom. Bank of Japan/carry trade concerns = bottom. Microstrategy FUD = bottom.”
On this basis, his AI model assigns the maximum score of 28/28 to this pillar. He cautions that “in isolation, this factor doesn’t matter much,” but argues that, combined with the first pillar, it “starts to paint a convincing bull case.”
The third pillar is flows, which he calls “the most critical factor (net buy/sell pressure).” For the past weeks, flows were “aggressively negative” with OG whales selling and ETFs dumping. Recently, he argues, this picture has changed. ETF inflows are “starting to stabilise & uptick,” treasury-company holdings remain stable, and “OG whales have stopped relentlessly dumping (this is clear on the orderbooks).” This earns a 22.5/25 score in his model. He adds one key caveat: as long as DATs exist, “there are material risks.”
The fourth pillar is the liquidity and macro environment. Deutscher notes that market liquidity had been tightening for months, but now “things are shifting back toward increased market liquidity,” with global financial conditions “reloosened to near highs.” He highlights “macro tailwinds” and adds that a new, potentially more dovish Fed chair is coming and “QT has now officially ended.” This set of factors receives a 9/10 score in his framework.
Aggregating all four pillars leads to the headline figure: “With all four market pillars taken into account, we arrive at a final score of 91.5/100.”
Deutscher, however, explicitly lists caveats. He points out that US markets “have been on a massive run” and may need to cool off, that DATs “are still seeing some short-term pressure,” and that ETF flows “can flip negative at any time.” His conclusion is probabilistic rather than absolute: “Markets are a game of probabilities, and I think the odds are in favour of the bottom being in – given the extreme FUD we’ve had and the market’s reaction to it.”
The Bitcoin price volatility is once again drawing attention to MicroStrategy, the company whose strategy has become a major market reference point, with billions in accumulated BTC and a track record of aggressive buying during downturns. As traders search for stability in a shaky market, Strategy’s stance is being watched closely for what it might signal about the next phase of BTC’s trend.
Why MicroStrategy’s Next Move Could Redirect Market Momentum
Bitcoin’s recent volatility has put MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of BTC, in the limelight. Walter Bloomberg has revealed on X that analysts are watching closely to see if the company could influence the cryptocurrency’s price if it sells some of its holdings.
According to JPMorgan, Strategy can avoid forced sales as long as its enterprise value-to-BTC holdings ratio stays above 1.0, which currently stands at 1.13 BTC. However, analysts continue to debunk these claims, accusing JPMorgan of spreading misinformation about market manipulation and the company.
Walter stated that if the ratio remains above this level, BTC markets may stabilize and ease recent market pressure. Due to the market pressure, the firm has slowed its BTC purchases, adding 9,062 BTC last month compared to 134,480 BTC a year ago, reflecting a more cautious accumulation approach amid a broader crypto downturn. Its stock has dropped roughly 42% over the past three months.
Additionally, challenges include the potential exclusion from MSCI indices, which could trigger $8.8 billion in passive fund outflows if index funds are forced to divest. However, MicroStrategy holds a $1.4 billion reserve for dividends and interest, helping it avoid selling its BTC even if the price falls further. In the meantime, there is no proof that MicroStrategy is in danger of liquidation.
How Institutional Behavior Builds A Higher Floor For Bitcoin
In a market speculation, Bitcoin is currently experiencing one of the most significant capital migrations in its history, fueled by institutional adoption. Analyst Matthew noted that the current BTC market cycle from 2022 to 2025 has already absorbed an unprecedented amount of new capital, surpassing all previous BTC cycles. This growth is a reflection of the market’s maturity and the ecosystem’s innovative approach to liquidity through regulated instruments.
Furthermore, the network has incorporated more than $732 billion in fresh capital in the current cycle, surpassing the $388 billion that was injected during the 2018 to 2022 cycle. At that time, the surge helped push BTC market capitalization to an all-time high record of $1.1 trillion, a metric that indicates a much higher aggregate cost base for new institutional investors.
Meanwhile, the total settlement volume in the decentralized BTC protocol was approximately $6.9 trillion in just 90 days. Despite this, the number of active on-chain entities dropped from 240,000 to 170,000 per day, which is a reflection of liquidity migration of capital flows into spot ETFs.
Bitcoin has been struggling to build momentum in recent weeks, and the return of cash into the system is raising questions about whether this could be the moment that changes the tone of the crypto market. That growing sense of anticipation has already started to show up in prices, with the total crypto market cap climbing more than $250 billion from its $3.016 trillion low on December 2.
What Happened: The Liquidity Injection And Why It Matters
After officially bringing its multi-year quantitative tightening (QT) program to an end, the central bank followed up with a $13.5 billion overnight repo operation, funneled through the New York Fed. Banks brought $13.5 billion in Treasuries to the Fed, the Fed accepted all of it, and instantly injected $13.5 billion of fresh reserves into the system.
The move, which is the second-largest liquidity injection since the COVID-19 crisis, effectively puts an end the steady shrinkage of bank reserves that has persisted for years, easing pressure on short-term funding markets and signaling a more accommodative liquidity environment.
The crypto market responded almost instantly. A handful of major assets began turning green within hours of the injection, with Bitcoin leading the charge with an instant break above $92,000.
The influx was visible at a macro level as well: the total crypto market cap climbed from a December 2 low of $3.016 trillion to $3.269 trillion by December 4. A gain of more than $250 billion in under 48 hours
What Investors Should Watch Next
Ending QT leads to better liquidity and often create a bullish environment for equities and other riskier investments like cryptocurrencies. However, although a single liquidity event does not guarantee a sustained multi-month rally, this injection stands out not just for its size but for what it represents.
In a CNBC interview, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee stated that the Fed’s decision to stop QT will be a turning point for the cryptocurrency market. Lee pointed out that the last time the Fed ended QT, the market rose about 17% within three weeks.
The previous time the Fed brought quantitative tightening to a stop was in July 2019, roughly a year after it began reducing its balance sheet. In the three weeks that followed, the S&P 500 climbed about 5%. Bitcoin’s also initially rallied in the same period, but its strongest reaction came months after, towards late 2019 and early 2020.
Bitcoin is holding firmly above the $92,000 level after several days of relief and a stronger-than-expected rebound across the market. Yet despite the positive price action, analysts remain deeply divided. Some interpret this move as a classic relief rally within a broader downtrend, warning that the macro structure still favors a deeper correction.
Others see the recent recovery as the first sign that Bitcoin may be stabilizing and preparing for another bullish phase. The uncertainty reflects the conflicting signals coming from both derivatives and spot markets.
Adding fuel to the discussion, new on-chain data from Arkham shows that Matrixport withdrew 3,805 BTC—worth approximately $352.5 million—from Binance within the last 24 hours. This is a significant development, as Matrixport is one of Asia’s largest crypto financial service platforms, founded by Jihan Wu, the co-founder of Bitmain. The firm provides institutional-grade investment products, lending, trading, and asset management solutions to high-net-worth clients and funds across the region.
Large withdrawals from exchanges by institutions like Matrixport often signal accumulation, reduced selling pressure, or repositioning for custody and long-term holding. Combined with Bitcoin’s stabilization above $92K, this data adds an important layer of complexity to the current market outlook.
Institutional Positioning and a Changing Macro Landscape
Matrixport’s withdrawal of 3,805 BTC from Binance signals a potentially meaningful shift in institutional positioning. Large entities rarely move this size of capital without intention. Such withdrawals typically imply reduced selling pressure and a preference for custody over exchange liquidity, often interpreted as quiet accumulation.
For a firm managing billions in client assets, reallocating Bitcoin off exchanges suggests growing confidence in medium-term price stability or an expectation of improving market conditions.
This move arrives at a pivotal moment in the global macro environment. The Federal Reserve has ended Quantitative Tightening (QT), marking a major transition from liquidity withdrawal to a more accommodative stance. Historically, the end of QT has preceded periods of asset reflation, as systemic liquidity begins to stabilize.
At the same time, Japanese bond yields have surged, signaling stress in one of the world’s most influential funding markets. A spike in Japanese yields often triggers global liquidity adjustments, particularly through the carry trade, which can ultimately redirect capital toward risk assets—including Bitcoin.
Additionally, markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon, further easing financial conditions. Lower rates weaken the dollar, reduce funding costs, and typically stimulate inflows into alternative and high-beta assets.
In this environment of softening monetary policy and rising liquidity, Matrixport’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation could reflect growing institutional conviction that the worst of the downturn is behind us—and that Bitcoin may be entering a more favorable macro phase.
BTC Price Analysis: Testing Recovery Momentum
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the market attempting to stabilize after the sharp decline that pushed price toward the mid-$80,000s. The rebound into the $91K–$93K zone marks the first meaningful recovery attempt, but the structure still reflects caution.
BTC remains below the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, which have both started to slope downward, signaling that the broader trend has not yet shifted back in favor of the bulls. Until Bitcoin reclaims these moving averages with strong volume, the market will likely see this move as a relief rally rather than a confirmed reversal.
Price is currently consolidating above the 200-day SMA, a level that often acts as a long-term trend gauge. Holding this region is essential; losing it would risk a deeper drop toward earlier support zones near $82K–$84K. Volume activity during the bounce shows some improvement, yet it remains far below the levels seen during the late-October peak, suggesting that buyers are cautious and large players are not fully engaged.
The chart also shows a clear lower-high structure forming since September, confirming the bearish pressure that has dominated the last several weeks. For sentiment to shift decisively, BTC must break above $95K and rebuild momentum toward the psychological $100K mark. Until then, volatility and hesitation remain the defining features of this recovery.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is trading around $91,000 after a minor dip earlier today, and uncertainty continues to dominate sentiment. The market sits at a crossroads: a small but vocal group of analysts argues that the recent correction served as a healthy reset before a continuation of the broader uptrend, while the majority of traders believe the first leg of a new bear market is already underway. With price action still showing hesitation, the debate grows louder by the day.
According to top analyst Darkfost, a critical threshold will help determine Bitcoin’s next major direction. He highlights the importance of the Realized Price of the youngest Long-Term Holder (LTH) band, which currently sits at $96,956. This metric marks the transition point between short-term and long-term holders and is viewed as a psychological and structural barrier for market stability.
Reclaiming this level would push these young LTHs back into a comfortable profit zone, reducing their incentive to sell and helping to restore confidence across the market. Until Bitcoin closes decisively above $97K, Darkfost warns that caution is warranted, as volatility remains high and the risk of further downside persists.
Why the $97K Threshold Matters for Bitcoin’s Next Major Move
Darkfost emphasizes that the $96,956–$97,000 zone plays a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin’s next phase. This level represents the Realized Price of the youngest Long-Term Holder band, meaning it reflects the average cost basis of investors who recently transitioned from short-term to long-term holding behavior. When Bitcoin trades below this threshold, these holders sit at an unrealized loss, increasing the likelihood of panic selling and adding pressure to the market.
Breaking above this zone would flip sentiment for this group almost immediately. Darkfost explains that reclaiming $97K would place these investors back into a comfortable profit position, restoring their confidence and expectations of potential gains. Once this psychological weight lifts, these holders typically choose to keep accumulating rather than selling, which naturally brings more stability to the market.
However, he cautions that Bitcoin’s failure to close above $97,000 keeps the risk tilted to the downside. As long as the price remains below this band, the market stays vulnerable, and volatility may continue.
Even if BTC successfully reclaims $97K, Darkfost reminds that this is only the first step. The market would still need stronger structural confirmation—such as reclaiming key moving averages and rebuilding demand—to validate a true bullish reversal that could eventually lead to a new all-time high.
BTC Weekly Structure Shows Early Signs of Stabilization
Bitcoin’s weekly chart reflects a market trying to stabilize after a sharp multi-week correction that dragged the price from above $115,000 down toward the mid-$80,000s. The latest weekly candle shows a firm rebound from the 100-week moving average (green line), now acting as dynamic support around the $84,000–$86,000 region. This level historically attracts long-term buyers, and the strong wick rejection confirms renewed demand.
BTC is currently trading near $91,300, sitting just below the 50-week moving average (blue line), which now acts as resistance. A clean reclaim of this moving average—currently positioned around $95K–$97K—would significantly improve the technical outlook and align with on-chain signals calling for a recovery. Until then, the trend remains neutral-to-bearish on higher timeframes.
Volume during the recent bounce stands out, showing one of the strongest buying reactions since early 2025. This suggests that long-term holders and institutional buyers may be stepping in as the price approaches key value zones.
However, Bitcoin is not out of danger. Failures to break above $97K would leave the structure vulnerable to another leg down, potentially retesting $86K or even deeper liquidity pockets around $80K.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has logged its longest stretch of weekly withdrawals since the fund launched in January 2024, marking a sharp turn in institutional sentiment toward Bitcoin even as prices steady.
Key Takeaways:
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has entered its longest outflow streak to date, with over $2.7 billion withdrawn in five weeks.
The reversal follows October’s sharp crypto-market liquidation, which erased more than $1 trillion in value and halted IBIT’s months of steady inflows.
Analysts warn the trend signals weakening institutional appetite.
Redemptions continued on Thursday with an additional $113 million, putting the ETF on track for a sixth consecutive week of outflows.
IBIT Faces Reversal as Crypto Wipeout Ends Months of Steady Inflows
IBIT, which manages more than $71 billion in assets, has been the flagship vehicle for traditional investors seeking regulated exposure to Bitcoin.
However, flows have reversed direction since early October, when a violent liquidation across crypto markets triggered a sell-off that erased more than $1 trillion in digital-asset value.
The shift stands in contrast to the steady inflows that helped propel Bitcoin higher earlier in the year.
Last week, speaking in São Paulo, BlackRock business development director Cristiano Castro said the company’s Bitcoin ETFs had become one of its strongest revenue engines, calling their rapid ascent “a big surprise” as investor allocations surged throughout the year.
Castro also downplayed outflow concerns, noting that “ETFs are very liquid and powerful instruments.”
“What we’ve been seeing is perfectly normal; any asset that starts to experience compression usually has this effect, especially in an instrument that is heavily controlled by retail investors,” he added.
Bitcoin has clawed back some losses this week, but analysts say ETF flows paint a clearer picture of institutional caution.
In a recent report, Glassnode wrote that the outflow streak “marks a clear reversal from the persistent inflow regime that supported price earlier in the year, and reflects a cooling of new capital allocation into the asset.”
The firm noted that investor positioning has become more defensive as volatility and funding pressure remain elevated.
Despite the turbulence, Bitcoin traded around $92,000 in London on Friday morning, still down 27% from its October peak.
Spot Chainlink ETF Pulls $41M on First Day
As reported, Grayscale’s first US spot exchange-traded fund tied to Chainlink opened with solid demand, adding another data point to the debate over whether appetite for altcoins can survive a cooling crypto market.
The figures placed Chainlink among the stronger ETF launches this year and suggested that, at least for some investors, regulated vehicles remain the preferred route into higher-risk digital assets.
The new Chainlink ETF comes amid the rollout of a wave of new altcoin ETFs.
Over the past month, issuers have launched products tied to Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin, with more XRP and Dogecoin funds set to list next week.
The Canary Capital XRP ETF (XRPC) debuted with $58 million in net inflows, the highest opening-day haul for any ETF this year, edging out the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL), which launched with $57 million.
After a brief moment of bullish performance in Bitcoin, the price experienced a sudden pullback due to a broader market shakedown, which caused BTC to revisit the $90,000 threshold. While this pullback has sparked a frenzy in the cryptocurrency community, on-chain data has revealed a shocking trend about the sudden pullback.
True Capitulation, Not A Routine Bitcoin Pullback
The market was rocked by a recent decline in the price of Bitcoin, but this pullback comes with an extra layer. Alphractal, an advanced investment and on-chain data analytics platform, has shed crucial insights about the decline using several key indicators to determine the unseen trend.
After carrying out its research, the on-chain platform revealed that the latest Bitcoin drop was not just another correction, but a clear instance of a capitulation event. This abrupt turnaround seems to have embodied all the characteristics of a full-scale capitulation event. These include an emotional flush-out when panic selling, forced liquidations, and intense dread came together in one dramatic moment.
Alphractal’s reading is backed by three major signals that rarely show up together, suggesting a pivotal moment for BTC. Such a trend may be the turning point that reshapes the short-term trajectory of the crypto king.
The first signal highlighted by the platform comes from the Bitcoin Hash Rate, which has witnessed a steady decline over the last 30 days. Presently, miners are turning off their machines, triggering heightened pressure on the ecosystem. When miners begin to lose money, it typically implies that the market might have reached its peak.
Another signal is coming from the BTC price drawdown. After a fast, violent drop, the metric is hitting extreme levels beyond the historical median. This is not just a technical drop, but it’s pain, triggered by forced selling and liquidation.
A Rare Trend And A Good Entry Opportunity
Finally, the last signal is the recent spike in active supply as those holding BTC for months or years have begun spending their coins. A behavior of this kind only unfolds when investors exhibit heightened caution, causing sentiment to drop.
An interesting aspect about this trend is that when these 3 signals flash in unison, the Capitulation Oscillator tends to rise. This is a moment that nearly always denotes the conclusion of a downward trend or a leveling phase, as was the case in 2021.
While it has played out in previous scenarios, it is not a guarantee of an immediate bottom. However, moments like these have historically been uncommon and frequently present opportunities that only occur once or twice every cycle, especially for those rooted in on-chain data.
Joao Wedson, the founder of Alphractal, also confirms these signals, which point to real capitulation. According to Wedson, the recent correction was the most severe capitulation event since 2022.
Nonetheless, this has traditionally led to the formation of long accumulation regions before the price makes its next macro direction. In other words, Wedson noted that the highest probability scenario is that 2025 will end in a broad sideways range; a classic phase of accumulation or redistribution.
After nearly a full week of rising prices, the crypto market is down today, with the cryptocurrency market capitalisation falling by 1.1%, now standing at $3.23 trillion. 90 of the top 100 coins have gone up over the past 24 hours. At the same time, the total crypto trading volume is at $114 billion.
TLDR:
Crypto market cap fell by 1.1% on Friday morning (UTC);
90 of the top 100 coins and 9 of the top 10 coins have gone down today;
BTC decreased by 1.2% to $92,227, and ETH is down by 0.6% to $3,169;
The current structure remains highly sensitive to macro shocks;
Holding $96,000–$106,000 is critical to avoid further downside;
The US will release the September PCE inflation data today;
Woori Bank began displaying BTC prices inside its main trading room in Seoul;
Both US BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw outflows on Thursday, with $194.64 million and $41.75 million, respectively;
Strategy earmarked a $1.44 billion US dollar reserve as a liquidity buffer;
Crypto market sentiment pulls back again.
Crypto Winners & Losers
At the time of writing, all top 10 coins per market capitalization have seen their prices rise over the past 24 hours. Two recorded double-digit increases.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.2% since this time yesterday, currently trading at $92,227.
Bitcoin (BTC)
24h7d30d1yAll time
Ethereum (ETH) is down by 0.6%, now changing hands at $3,169. This is the smallest decrease among the ten.
XRP saw the highest fall, going down by 3.9% to $2.09.
Meanwhile, major Korean Woori Bank has begun displaying BTC prices inside its main trading room in Seoul. This is the first time a commercial bank in the country has integrated a crypto price feed directly into its main dealing space.
“As digital assets continue to grow in prominence and influence in global financial markets, we determined that they should be monitored as a key indicator to better read overall market trends,” an official said.
SOUTH KOREAN BANKING GIANT WOORI BANK JUST STARTED DISPLAYING #BITCOIN PRICE IN THEIR DEALING ROOM
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin stabilized above the critical valuation anchor, the True Market Mean (the cost basis of all non-dormant coins).
“This level often marks the dividing line between a mild bearish phase and a deep bear market,” the analysts explain.
However, the broader market structure is still increasingly mirroring the dynamics of Q1 2022, with over 25% of supply underwater.
“This creates a fragile balance between the risk of top-buyer capitulation and the potential for seller exhaustion to form a bottom. Nevertheless, the current structure remains highly sensitive to macro shocks until the market can reclaim the 0.85 quantile (~$106.2K) as support.”
Importantly, holding $96,000–$106,000 is critical to avoid further downside, says the report.
Furthermore, Bitunix analysts noted that the US will release the September PCE inflation data today. The result will directly influence the December rate decision. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut currently stands at 87%, the analysts say.
Ahead of this release, “the market has entered a compressed-volatility, wait-and-see structure, with BTC’s key battleground concentrated between $91,000–$95,000. If the data confirm continued disinflation, the probability of a year-end rebound will rise; otherwise, the choppy structure is likely to persist, with capital flows shifting back toward defensive and short-duration positioning.”
Levels & Events to Watch Next
At the time of writing on Friday morning, BTC stood at $92,227. It started the day with the high of $93,577, gradually decreasing to the current price. Very briefly, it fell to the intraday low of $91,029.
Looking at the past week, we’ve seen the price increase just below 1%. In this period, BTC moved between $84,553 and $93,855.
If the price continues falling, it could go back to the $90,000 level, possibly below. On the other hand, a bullish shift could push it to $96,500 and towards the $100,000 mark.
Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: TradingView
Ethereum is currently changing hands at $3,169. It initially jumped to the intraday high of $3,217 before briefly plunging to the low of $3,076. It has recovered quickly.
ETH has outperformed BTC in the 1-week timeframe. It’s up 5%, trading in the $2,736-$3,222 range.
A bullish breakout of the $3,350 resistance could confirm a bullish trend reversal. This would clear a path for the price to move above $3,500 and then towards $4,000. However, should the decline continue, we may see a pullback towards $2,900.
Ethereum (ETH)
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Meanwhile, after a couple of days of increases, the crypto market sentiment reversed course and dropped again within the fear territory. The crypto fear and greed index stands at 25 today, compared to 27 yesterday.
Given the level of uncertainty among the market participants at the moment, it wouldn’t be surprising if the index drops back into the extreme fear zone. It would take a significant push from major macroeconomic news for it to quickly move out of the fear and into the neutral zone in the short term. Therefore, it will likely take time.
ETFs Go Red
On Thursday, 4 December, the US BTC spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw a second straight day of outflows with $194.64 million. The total net inflow pulled back to $57.56 billion.
Of the twelve BTC ETFs, five recorded outflows, and none saw inflows. BlackRock accounts for the majority of the negative flows, letting go of $112.96 million. Fidelity follows with $54.2 million.
The US ETH ETFs also posted negative flows on Thursday. They saw $41.75 million in outflows. The total net inflow now stands at $12.95 billion.
Of the nine funds, one recorded inflows, and three saw outflows. BlackRock took in $28.35 million, while Grayscale let go of $30.96 million.
Notably, Strategy, the world’s largest corporate BTC holder, has earmarked a $1.44 billion US dollar reserve as a liquidity buffer against a prolonged market downturn. CryptoQuant argues that this move signals preparation for a potential bear market phase.
Strategy said it may also sell BTC or BTC derivatives as part of its risk-management toolkit if market conditions deteriorate.
Strategy’s Bitcoin buying has collapsed through 2025.
Monthly purchases fell from 134K BTC at the 2024 peak to just 9.1K BTC in November 2025, only 135 BTC so far this month.
A 24-month buffer makes one thing clear: they’re bracing for the bear market. pic.twitter.com/qEwXR3JQ82
Meanwhile, quantitative trading firm Jane Street took a stake in the company called Antithesis, which claims to have strengthened the Ethereum blockchain. Jane Street led the company’s Series A funding round, where it received $105 million in total.
Quick FAQ
Why did crypto move with stocks today?
The crypto market recorded a decrease over the past 24 hours, while the US stock market saw a mixed session on Thursday. By the closing time on 4 December, the S&P 500 was up by 0.11%, the Nasdaq-100 decreased by 0.097%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.067%. This followed a fresh set of data on the US labour market and preceded a key inflation reading set for today.
Is this drop sustainable?
Minor drops are common for the markets, and today’s is not out of the ordinary. Analysts argue that we could still see the rally continue, at least in the next few weeks, unless the market is hit by a major macro shock.
JPMorgan analysts say the near-term direction of Bitcoin’s price now depends less on miner behavior and more on the financial resilience of Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, even as mining pressure and market volatility persist.
In a report led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the bank identified two forces currently weighing on Bitcoin. The first is a recent decline in Bitcoin’s network hashrate and mining difficulty.
The second is the growing market focus on Strategy’s balance sheet and its ability to avoid selling its Bitcoin holdings during the ongoing market downturn.
High-Cost Bitcoin Miners Capitulate as Hashrate Slips and Margins Collapse
The decline in hashrate reflects a combination of China reiterating its ban on private mining activity and high-cost miners outside the country retreating as falling Bitcoin prices and elevated electricity costs squeeze profitability.
JPMorgan now estimates Bitcoin’s production cost at $90,000, down from $94,000 last month. The estimate assumes electricity priced at $0.05 per kilowatt hour, with every $0.01 increase adding roughly $18,000 to production costs for higher-cost miners.
With Bitcoin trading near $92,000, JPMorgan said the asset continues to hover close to its estimated production cost, creating sustained selling pressure from miners.
As profits tighten, several high-cost producers have been forced to liquidate Bitcoin holdings in recent weeks to remain solvent.
Despite those pressures, JPMorgan said miners are no longer the key driver of Bitcoin’s next major move. Instead, attention has shifted to Strategy’s ability to maintain its Bitcoin position without being forced into sales.
Strategy’s enterprise-value-to-Bitcoin-holdings ratio currently stands at 1.13. That figure reflects the combined market value of its debt, preferred stock, and equity relative to the market value of its Bitcoin treasury.
According to JPMorgan, the fact that the ratio remains above 1.0 is “encouraging” because it shows that Strategy is unlikely to face pressure to sell Bitcoin to meet interest or dividend obligations.
The reserve is designed to cover dividend payments and interest expenses for at least 12 months, with the company targeting coverage of up to 24 months.
JPMorgan said the reserve significantly reduces the risk of forced Bitcoin sales in the foreseeable future.
JPMorgan Sees $170K Bitcoin Scenario Despite Strategy’s MSCI Index Risk
Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation has slowed sharply in recent months, though it remains deeply exposed to price movements.
In November, it added 8,178 BTC in its largest purchase since July, bringing total holdings to roughly 650,000 BTC. Its basic market capitalization stands near $54 billion, with an enterprise value of about $69 billion.
Markets are also watching an upcoming decision by MSCI on whether to remove Strategy and other digital-asset treasury companies from its equity indices. JPMorgan said the downside risk from exclusion is largely priced in.
JPMorgan estimates that an MSCI exclusion could trigger $2.8 billion in passive outflows, with as much as $8.8 billion at risk if other index providers follow suit.
Even so, the bank said further downside would likely be limited. By contrast, if MSCI keeps Strategy in major indices, JPMorgan said both Strategy and Bitcoin could rebound sharply toward pre-October levels.
Beyond corporate balance sheets, JPMorgan continues to point to broader crypto market structure for longer-term upside. The bank said perpetual futures deleveraging appears largely complete following record liquidations in October.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s volatility ratio relative to gold has improved, strengthening its risk-adjusted appeal to investors.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan is pushing back against one of the loudest bearish narratives around bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR, formerly MicroStrategy): that it could be forced into a liquidation of its roughly $60 billion bitcoin stack. In his latest CIO memo, Hougan writes bluntly that “Michael Saylor and Strategy selling bitcoin is not one of” the real risks in crypto.
Will Strategy Sell Its Bitcoin?
The immediate trigger for market anxiety is MSCI’s consultation on whether to remove so-called digital asset treasury companies (DATs) like Strategy from its investable indexes. Nearly $17 trillion in assets tracks those benchmarks, and JPMorgan estimates index funds might have to sell up to $2.8 billion of MSTR if it is excluded.
MSCI’s rationale is structural: it views many DATs as closer to holding companies or funds than operating companies, and its investable universes already exclude holding structures such as REITs.
Hougan, a self-described “deep index geek” who previously spent a decade editing the Journal of Indexes, says he can “see this going either way.” Michael Saylor and others are arguing that Strategy remains very much an operating software company with “complex financial engineering around bitcoin,” and Hougan agrees that this is a reasonable characterization. But he notes that DATs are divisive, MSCI is currently leaning toward excluding them, and he “would guess there is at least a 75% chance Strategy gets booted” when MSCI announces its decision on January 15.
He argues, however, that even a removal is unlikely to be catastrophic for the stock. Large, mechanical index flows are often anticipated and “priced in well ahead of time.” Hougan points out that when MSTR was added to the Nasdaq-100 last December, funds tracking the index had to buy about $2.1 billion of stock, yet “its price barely moved.”
He believes some of the downside in MSTR since October 10 already reflects investors discounting a probable MSCI removal, and that “at this point, I don’t think you’ll see substantial swings either way.” Over the long term, he insists, “the value of MSTR is based on how well it executes its strategy, not on whether index funds are forced to own it.”
The more dramatic claim is the so-called MSTR “doom loop”: MSCI exclusion leads to heavy selling, the stock trades far below NAV, and Strategy is somehow forced to sell its bitcoin. Here Hougan is unequivocal: “The argument feels logical. Unfortunately for the bears, it’s just flat wrong. There is nothing about MSTR’s price dropping below NAV that will force it to sell.”
He breaks the problem down to actual balance sheet constraints. Strategy, he says, has two key obligations: about $800 million per year in interest payments and the need to refinance or redeem specific debt instruments as they mature.
Smaller DATs Are The Bigger Problem
On interest, the company currently has approximately $1.4 billion in cash, enough to “make its dividend payments easily for a year and a half” without touching its bitcoin or needing heroic capital markets access. On principal, the first major maturity does not arrive until February 2027, and that tranche is “only about $1 billion—chump change” compared with the roughly $60 billion in bitcoin the company holds.
Governance further reduces the likelihood of forced selling. Michael Saylor controls around 42% of Strategy’s voting shares and is, in Hougan’s words, a person with extraordinary “conviction on bitcoin’s long-term value.” He notes that Saylor “didn’t sell the last time MSTR stock traded at a discount, in 2022.”
Hougan concedes that a forced liquidation would be structurally significant for bitcoin, roughly equivalent to two years of spot ETF inflows dumped back into the market. He simply does not see a credible path from MSCI index mechanics and equity volatility to that outcome “with no debt due until 2027 and enough cash to cover interest payments for the foreseeable future.” At the time of writing, he notes, bitcoin trades around $92,000, about 27% below its highs but still 24% above Strategy’s average acquisition price of $74,436 per coin. “So much for the doom.”
Hougan ends by stressing that there are real issues to worry about in crypto—slow-moving market structure legislation, fragile and “poorly run” smaller DATs, and a likely slowdown in DAT bitcoin purchases in 2026. But on Strategy specifically, his conclusion is direct: he “wouldn’t worry about the impact of MSCI’s decision on the stock price” and sees “no plausible near-term mechanism that would force it to sell its bitcoin. It’s not going to happen.”
Woori Bank has begun displaying Bitcoin prices inside its main trading room in Seoul, placing the cryptocurrency alongside core financial indicators such as the won–dollar exchange rate and stock market data.
Key Takeaways:
Woori Bank is the first Korean commercial bank to display Bitcoin prices in its main trading room.
The move reflects Bitcoin’s rising role in global market sentiment as Korean banks expand deeper into digital asset infrastructure.
Upcoming regulations could position major banks like Woori as central players in South Korea’s future digital finance landscape.
The move marks the first time a commercial bank in South Korea has integrated a crypto price feed directly into its frontline dealing environment, the space where traders handle foreign exchange, bonds and derivatives.
Bitcoin Now Seen as Market Signal, Says Woori Bank Official
A Woori Bank official said the decision reflects the growing weight of digital assets in global finance, noting that Bitcoin has increasingly become a signal for broader market sentiment.
“As digital assets continue to grow in prominence and influence in global financial markets, we determined that they should be monitored as a key indicator to better read overall market trends,” the official said.
The update comes as Korean banks step deeper into digital asset infrastructure.
Hana Financial Group this week signed a partnership with Dunamu, operator of the Upbit exchange, to incorporate blockchain tools into services ranging from overseas remittances to financial data systems.
While Woori has yet to announce a formal partnership with a crypto exchange, senior executives have repeatedly indicated that the bank intends to expand into digital asset services.
CEO Jung Jin-wan said in October that payments and digital asset ecosystems are “increasingly interconnected,” suggesting the sector could open new revenue avenues for banks.
SOUTH KOREAN BANKING GIANT WOORI BANK JUST STARTED DISPLAYING #BITCOIN PRICE IN THEIR DEALING ROOM
Regulators are also shaping a clearer path. The government and ruling Democratic Party are examining a proposal that would restrict issuance of won-based stablecoins to bank-led consortia with majority bank ownership.
If enacted, the framework could position major lenders like Woori as central players in future stablecoin markets.
The frenzy was led by leveraged ETFs and high-growth stocks, as traders sought to ride Wall Street’s momentum amid optimism surrounding US tech resilience and domestic stimulus hopes.
South Korea to Extend Crypto Travel Rule to Sub-$700 Transactions
Last week, South Korea revealed that it is preparing one of its most aggressive crackdowns on cryptocurrency-related financial crime by expanding its travel rule requirements.
The new threshold covers transactions under 1 million won ($680), which until now allowed users to bypass identity checks by breaking transfers into smaller amounts
The Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) will also introduce pre-emptive account-freezing powers in serious cases, allowing investigators to lock suspicious accounts before funds can be moved beyond recovery.
Officials said legislative amendments are expected to be submitted to the National Assembly in the first half of 2026, with South Korea also expanding coordination with global regulators such as the Financial Action Task Force to align with international standards.
Bitcoin is again trading under the shadow of a potential yen carry-trade shock as markets head into the 9–10 December FOMC meeting and a likely hawkish turn from the Bank of Japan at the December 18-19 meeting. The setup echoes last summer’s episode, when a policy shift in Tokyo triggered rapid deleveraging across risk assets, including crypto.
Will The Bitcoin Price Crash Next Week?
Analyst Benjamin Cowen explicitly links today’s environment to that July shock. He reminded followers that “in July 2024, the Fed cut rates while the BOJ raised rates, leading to the unwind of the carry trade. Bitcoin capitulated into it, and found a low 1 week later.” He added, “Good chance this happens again on December 10th (Fed cuts, BOJ raises rates). So maybe Bitcoin finds a low mid-Dec?”
The precise sequencing last year was more nuanced – markets aggressively priced Fed easing while the BoJ surprised with a hike – but the core mechanism Cowen highlights is the same: when US policy is moving toward looser conditions just as Japan tightens, the long-running yen carry trade becomes unstable and high-beta assets sell off hard.
Truflation’s thread lays out why this matters for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market. Large institutions and commercial banks “borrow money in Yen where interest rates are historically and famously low, and use that money to invest in the US.” They can park the funds in interest-bearing instruments to “earn healthy 3–4%” on the spread, or “more often, they invest in stocks and bonds to get way more.” This is reinforced by a BoJ policy of keeping the yen cheap against the dollar.
The danger arises when stocks fall and the yen starts to rise or is expected to rise. Then “institutional and Commercial borrowers may exit, so as not to get stuck with significant losses on their Yen debts.” They “sell whatever assets they purchased in the US and get back into Yen to pay back their loans in Japan, resulting in a cascade of US asset sales and Yen purchases.” After “years of Yen carry trade being a relatively safe way for big banks and institutional investors to make easy money,” even a modest normalization can force broad, mechanical de-risking — and Bitcoin, as a liquid, leveraged risk asset, sits directly in that firing line.
Crypto trader Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) underscores how tight the current window is. He notes that “we have the Fed’s preferred measure to track inflation via the Core PCE inflation and then the FOMC all in the next six days,” followed by a BoJ press conference on 19 December that will be “massive for Dollar, short end and long end of the yield curve not to mention Yen carry trade fears.” In a separate post, he stresses that “the JP10Y continues to make new highs. Pretty big deal folks,” highlighting that Japanese yields are grinding higher into that meeting and increasing pressure on the BoJ to act.
A few days ago, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes connected that macro repricing directly to Bitcoin’s latest leg down. “BTC dumped cause BOJ put Dec rate hike in play. USDJPY 155–160 makes BOJ hawkish,” he argues, framing the sell-off as a funding shock rather than a crypto-native event.
Into December, futures and economist surveys put the probability of a Fed cut at roughly 80–87% for the 9–10 December meeting, even as the committee remains divided. At the same time, the BoJ is openly signalling it will “consider the pros and cons” of a hike at its 18–19 December meeting, with markets now pricing a high likelihood of tightening and 10-year JGB yields near multi-decade highs.
That combination — Fed easing expectations plus BoJ tightening risk — is exactly the configuration that threatens the yen carry and makes a repeat of July 2024’s pattern plausible: a sharp flush in Bitcoin and other risk assets, followed by a bottom once forced deleveraging runs its course.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out how the current Bitcoin market is reminiscent to the structure from the first quarter of 2022.
Bitcoin Dynamics Are Currently Looking Similar To Early 2022 Bear Market
In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has discussed about how the broader Bitcoin market structure is starting to resemble Q1 2022. First, the analytics firm has shared the data of its Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model, highlighting price levels that correspond to a certain degree of investor profitability.
In the chart, three supply quantiles are listed: 0.75, 0.85, and 0.95. If Bitcoin trades at the first of these levels, 75% of the supply will be in profit. Similarly, the latter two correspond to 85% and 95% profitability, respectively.
It’s visible in the graph that Bitcoin has recently fallen below all three of these levels, indicating more than 25% of the cryptocurrency’s supply is now underwater. “This creates a fragile balance between the risk of top-buyer capitulation and the potential for seller exhaustion to form a bottom,” explained Glassnode.
BTC similarly broke below the 0.75 quantile back during the sideways market of early 2022. Another indicator that reinforces the resemblance is the Total Supply in Loss, which measures, as its name suggests, the amount of the Bitcoin circulating supply that’s being held at some net unrealized loss.
Below is a chart showing the 7-day moving average (MA) trend in the metric.
As displayed in the graph, the 7-day MA Bitcoin Total Supply in Loss hit a high of 7.1 million BTC last week, which is the highest that it has been since September 2023, more than two years ago.
The analytics firm noted:
The current scale of supply in loss, ranging between 5M–7M BTC, is strikingly similar to the early-2022 sideways market, further reinforcing the resemblance noted above.
Finally, the Bitcoin long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) also implies that the current market structure is mirroring Q1 2022. This metric tells us, in short, whether the Bitcoin investors holding since more than 155 days ago are selling their coins at a profit or loss.
The Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR has witnessed a sharp decline recently, but its value is still above 1, indicating the long-term holders are selling at some net profit. With its current value of 1.43, however, there has been a notable shrinkage in the profit margins of the cohort.
It now remains to be seen whether the trends in these indicators mean that the cryptocurrency is on the cusp of a bear market transition like in early 2022, or if a rebound will come before long.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has seen a slight pullback during the past day as its price has dropped to $91,800.
A new report has revealed that a total of $732 billion in capital has flowed into Bitcoin this cycle, more than all other cycles combined.
Bitcoin Has Seen Historic Growth In Realized Cap This Cycle
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has released its Q4 2025 Digital Assets Report in collaboration with crypto investment firm Fasanara Digital, shedding light on how the market landscape has developed in the fourth quarter of 2025.
One of the things the report has talked about is the trend in the Realized Cap of Bitcoin. This capitalization model calculates the total value of the cryptocurrency by assuming the the value of each individual token is equal to the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.
The last transaction of any token is likely to represent the last time it changed hands, so the price at its time could be considered as its current cost basis. As such, the Realized Cap is a sum of the acquisition values of all coins in circulation. In other words, the model represents the total amount of capital that the investors used to purchase the asset’s supply. Considering this, changes in the indicator naturally correspond to the netflow of capital.
Below is a chart that shows how the Bitcoin Realized Cap has fluctuated over the last few years.
As displayed in the graph, the monthly change in the Bitcoin Realized Cap has remained positive over the last couple of years, indicating that the network has been enjoying a sustained expansion in stored capital.
The rate of inflows has varied a lot over the cycle, however, accelerating to high levels during rallies and slowing down during flat or bearish periods. Most recently, the monthly increase in the metric hit a high of $39.8 billion in October, but the bearish momentum since then has meant a cooldown to $15 billion.
Following the continued rise in the Realized Cap, its value has reached a new all-time high (ATH) of $1.1 trillion. The report noted that this marks “a historic milestone that underscores Bitcoin’s continued evolution as a globally held, high-liquidity asset.”
The Realized Cap has clearly witnessed a significant amount of growth this cycle. But how does it stack up against the capital inflows of the past cycles? Here is another chart, this one comparing the cumulative Realized Cap change for each cycle:
In total, the current cycle has attracted over $732 billion in capital. The last cycle saw $388 billion in inflows, and the two cycles before that about $90 billion combined. Thus, the latest cycle has not only outpaced each of the past cycles, but it has in fact seen a higher Realized Cap increase than all of them combined.
BTC Price
Bitcoin’s latest recovery has so far been holding as its price is trading around $92,800.
Bitcoin has climbed back above $93,000 after enduring days of intense selling pressure, heightened volatility, and widespread market uncertainty. The recovery marks a significant shift in sentiment, but according to a new report from CryptoQuant, one signal stands out as the primary driver behind the rebound: institutional capital is quietly flowing back into the market.
The analysis highlights a key metric— the Coinbase Premium Index, long regarded as a reliable proxy for US institutional demand. Throughout November’s steep correction, the premium plunged deep into negative territory, revealing a stark imbalance: US spot buyers were far weaker than their offshore counterparts.
During this phase, as Bitcoin slid below $90,000, the sharp drop in the premium reflected clear risk-off positioning among US-regulated investors, many of whom stepped back or took profits amid rising macro uncertainty.
Now, with Bitcoin recovering key levels, the data shows early signs of renewed accumulation from US-based institutions. This subtle but meaningful shift suggests that the most conservative segment of the market—professional and regulated capital—may be positioning again after the correction. If this trend continues, the rebound above $93K could evolve into a much broader shift in market structure.
According to the CryptoQuant report, the narrative has shifted decisively. The Coinbase Premium Index has climbed back into positive territory, signaling renewed accumulation from US-based institutional and regulated investors. This shift coincides with a wave of major developments reshaping the global investment landscape.
Most notably, Charles Schwab, a $12 trillion asset manager, announced plans to offer Bitcoin and Ethereum trading in early 2026. This follows Vanguard’s market-moving reversal that opened access to spot crypto ETFs for more than 50 million conservative investors. These firms are not speculative players—they are the backbone of American retirement wealth.
At the same time, a powerful but less publicized catalyst is emerging overseas: Japan is moving toward formal approval of Bitcoin ETFs. Given the size of Japanese investment trusts, pension-linked products, and retail participation, early adoption could inject $3–10 billion of fresh demand. While no single region drives Bitcoin’s valuation alone, combined flows from the US, Europe, and Japan could easily deliver a mid-single-digit percentage uplift to BTC in the early phases of this expansion.
The broader takeaway is unmistakable: Bitcoin is transitioning from a niche risk asset into a globally standardized investment product. The return of a positive Coinbase Premium may be the market’s earliest confirmation that institutions—especially the most conservative ones—are positioning ahead of 2026.
Weekly Structure Shows Early Signs of Recovery
Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a decisive rebound, with price pushing back above $93,000 after weeks of aggressive selling pressure. The recent wick down toward the green 100-week moving average (100W MA) marked a key moment: buyers stepped in precisely at long-term dynamic support, preventing a deeper breakdown toward the $80,000–$82,000 region.
This reaction confirms that long-term holders and institutional buyers are protecting this level, aligning with the recent return of positive signals from the Coinbase Premium Index.
Despite the rebound, the chart still shows Bitcoin facing overhead resistance. The 50-week MA sits just above the price, creating a supply zone between $97,000 and $102,000. This has historically acted as a trend-determining range; reclaiming it would shift momentum decisively back to the bulls. Until then, the market remains in a mid-cycle consolidation.
Volume behavior also supports the recovery narrative. The huge sell-volume spikes seen in November marked capitulation-like behavior, which often precedes trend reversals. The recent green weekly candle forming on rising buy volume suggests that demand is returning, aligning with improving liquidity conditions on major US and global exchanges.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin may be sliding into a new bear phase unless fresh macro liquidity – particularly through spot ETFs – returns to the market, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.
Bitcoin Bear Market Incoming?
Sharing a composite on-chain dashboard overlaid on the BTC price, Ju wrote on X: “Most Bitcoin on-chain indicators are bearish. Without macro liquidity, we enter a bear cycle.” The chart stacks ten CryptoQuant metrics behind the price in a red-to-green heatmap from 2021 to 2025, highlighting how regime shifts in prior cycles coincided with clusters of bearish readings.
The indicators in the panel include the MVRV Z-score, CryptoQuant P&L Index, the Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator, Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse, Network Activity Index, Stablecoin Liquidity, Bitcoin Demand Growth, Trader On-chain Profit Margin, Trader Realized Price and a Technical Signal metric. When the majority are bullish, the backdrop turns light green; when they flip bearish, it shifts to red. In the latest section of the chart, as BTC has pulled back from its highs, red once again dominates – the visual basis for Ju’s warning.
For the next major move, Ju argues that on-chain data is now subordinate to macro conditions and ETF flows. Quoting his own post, he wrote: “It is simple. If you think macro gets better next year, you buy. Otherwise, you sell. I’m not a macro expert, so find macro bros. New ETF inflows are the key.”
That line pinpoints what he believes can “save” Bitcoin from a deeper drawdown: renewed demand from spot ETFs as a conduit for institutional capital. In earlier stages of the cycle, rising ETF inflows coincided with strong price appreciation; more recently, slowing or negative flows have mirrored the loss of upward momentum.
Ju frames the current environment as one that demands flexible scenario management rather than rigid forecasts. “At this stage, it is more about being reactive than predictive. Set your scenarios and trade accordingly,” he told followers. The composite chart is designed for exactly that purpose, showing how past bull tops and bear markets aligned with persistent stretches of red across profit, valuation and liquidity metrics.
Despite the bearish tilt, Ju does not foresee a repeat of the 2022 collapse, when Bitcoin fell roughly 65% from peak to trough. He cites the behaviour of Michael Saylor led Strategy as a stabilizing factor. “If Strategy holds its 650K BTC this cycle (or sells only a little), we would not see another -65% drawdown like in 2022,” he wrote. In his view, that supply remaining largely off the market reduces the probability of a violent deleveraging event.
Ju characterizes the current pullback as substantial but not extreme in historical context. “We are about -25% from ATH now, and even if a bear cycle comes, the downside would likely be smaller and look more like a broad sideways range,” he argued, suggesting that prolonged consolidation is more likely than a single dramatic crash.
His message to long-term investors is explicitly calming. “Long-term holders should avoid panic selling,” he advised. While cyclical on-chain indicators flash red, he insists the structural backdrop has improved: “Bitcoin has more liquidity channels now, so the long-term outlook is obviously strong, imo.” Those channels include ETFs and a deeper institutional market structure than in prior cycles.
In the volatile theatre of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are showing signs of a potential high-time-frame reversal. After weeks of stress and price compression, each of the top assets is now stabilizing at key structural support levels. The multiple leading cryptocurrencies are flashing similar recovery setups at the same time.
The current crypto landscape may be setting up one of the most powerful high-time-frame reversals across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. An investor and trader known as MacroCRG on X highlighted that yesterday, all three assets printed a bullish engulfing candle, a strong signal that buyers are stepping back in with intent.
Market Leaders Hint At A Shift Before Smaller Assets Follow
On the weekly chart, each asset is showing the early stages of an inside-week breakout paired with a false breakdown. MacroCRG pointed out that a similar structure on the ES (S&P 500 futures) chart from April, where the breakdown of inside-week structure led to a breakout that never looked back when the bull secured the weekly close.
For this setup to take hold, these prices need to close the week above the key highlighted highs on the chart. However, there’s still a long way to go before the weekly close will confirm the breakout, and the bulls need to follow through with conviction and remove any doubt.
The founder of the ProMintClub investment community, ProMint, has spotted a high-conviction whale trader aggressively building long positions across the crypto market. Currently, the trader is leading the Lighter leaderboard with over $64 million in profit and loss, while maintaining an 83% long bias. His Lighter account has the highest profit and loss with over $8 million. These are insane numbers compared to everyone else on the leaderboard.
Data shows that the trader has made five deposits into his Lighter account, which total around $6 million in capital. His positions are spread across BTC, ETH, SOL, AAVE, along with smaller plays such as PAXG and PUMP, consistently entering at strong timing points and riding momentum higher.
Even though funding costs have flipped heavily negative, he is not backing down. Presently, this is the top-performing account on Lighter, and this is serious capital deployed with conviction.
How Increased Partners Drive Sustained Volume Demand
According to Chainflip Labs, November marked one of the strongest performance months in the protocol’s history, clearing over $583 million in swap volume, which is the second-best month ever for the network.
Demand remained sustained across BTC, ETH, and SOL routes, and more partners are routing flow through the network than ever before. The trend clearly shows that Chainflip will continue to scale.
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