Bitcoin is trading below the $90,000 level once again, as the market continues to drift through a phase defined by indecision, rising caution, and growing fear. After repeated failures to reclaim this psychological threshold, price action has started to reflect a lack of conviction on both sides, with buyers hesitating to step in aggressively and sellers pressing every rebound attempt. While the broader trend has not fully collapsed, the inability to hold key levels is increasing uncertainty around Bitcoin’s next major move.

Top analyst Darkfost argues that on-chain signals are starting to mirror conditions typically seen near the end of prolonged drawdowns. According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s unrealized profits and losses are sliding back toward levels that have historically appeared only at the exit of bear markets, when the market has already absorbed a deep reset in sentiment. This shift suggests that stress is building under the surface, even if price has not yet entered a full capitulation phase.

Since Bitcoin’s last all-time high, Darkfost notes that many late-arriving investors have moved into uncomfortable territory, facing mounting downside pressure as the market cools. As a result, unrealized profits are shrinking, unrealized losses are expanding, and the overall balance continues to deteriorate—an environment that often forces traders into a decisive choice between holding through volatility or exiting under stress.

Decision Point For Bitcoin Investors

Darkfost highlighted a chart based on an adjusted version of NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), designed to capture investor stress more accurately during shifting market regimes. Instead of relying solely on the standard market cap, the model incorporates the realized capitalization of both Short-Term Holders (STHs) and Long-Term Holders (LTHs), then compares that blended realized foundation against Bitcoin’s traditional market cap.

The result is a clearer view of how much profit or loss sits “on paper” across the market, filtered through a more structural lens. To reduce noise and better define trend shifts, the metric is smoothed using an average, producing what Darkfost refers to as aNUPL.

The key takeaway is that Bitcoin is approaching levels that have historically forced investors into a binary decision. When unrealized profits compress and unrealized losses expand to these ranges, holders typically face two outcomes: hold and continue accumulating, or capitulate and lock in losses. That difference in behavior becomes critical because it shapes liquidity, sentiment, and the next directional trend.

If long-term participants absorb the pressure and keep holding, the market can stabilize and rotate back into recovery. But if selling accelerates from stressed cohorts, the decline can deepen into a broader bear phase. This is why tracking realized and unrealized profit dynamics remains essential, especially during periods of uncertainty.

Bitcoin Consolidates After Sharp Weekly Breakdown

Bitcoin is trading around $89,000 on the weekly chart after a steep selloff that pushed the price out of its prior distribution zone. The latest candle reflects heavy downside pressure, with BTC dropping roughly 4.8% on the week and struggling to stabilize near a key pivot that has repeatedly acted as support and resistance throughout the cycle.

After failing to hold above the psychological $90,000 threshold, the market is now trapped in a tight consolidation range, suggesting traders are waiting for confirmation before committing to a larger move.

From a trend standpoint, Bitcoin remains vulnerable as it trades below the blue moving average, which is now acting as overhead resistance near the low-$100K region. The rejection from that dynamic level aligns with the broader structure: BTC topped near the mid-$120K range, then entered a sharp corrective leg that reset momentum into early 2026. While the green moving average continues to slope upward and is approaching the current price zone, the market has not yet shown the strength needed to reclaim its former trend trajectory.

Importantly, the weekly structure is now compressing. If buyers can defend the $88K–$90K region and push BTC back above $92K–$95K, it would signal a recovery attempt toward the moving average band. However, a sustained failure here increases the risk of a deeper retracement toward the low-$80K zone, where prior demand previously emerged.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below the significant $90,000 mark once again, raising concerns about the possibility of entering a new bear market and casting doubt on the cryptocurrency’s prospects. Market analyst Raun Neuner published a new analysis of the situation in a post on X (formerly Twitter).

Is $37,000 On The Horizon?  

Neuner highlighted that while stocks are performing robustly and commodities are experiencing what he calls a “supercycle,” the crypto market still struggles to gain traction. This situation raises the critical question: What is the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin?

Historically, Bitcoin’s bull markets tend to peak approximately 532 days after each Halving event. Applying this pattern to the current cycle suggests that Bitcoin could have reached its peak around early October, where it briefly touched $125,000. 

Historical trends show that following these peaks, Bitcoin typically endures a substantial decline of 70 to 80%. If this framework holds for the current cycle, Neuner estimates a potential downturn to around $37,000 in the event of a full bear market.

Zooming out to consider broader traditional market dynamics provides further context. After a year marked by strong performances in both stocks and commodities, market corrections are to be expected. 

During risk-off periods in equity markets, Bitcoin has historically amplified these downward moves, contributing to building pressure toward the lower end of the spectrum. The analyst indicates that a key reference point for Bitcoin might be around the $57,000 mark, where the 200-week moving average (MA) resides.

Critical Bitcoin Support Levels To Watch

The immediate factors contributing to Bitcoin’s recent drop below the $90,000 threshold are linked to heightened volatility in global bond and equity markets, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions. 

Walter Bloomberg, an expert in market analysis, pointed out that the new downtrend has been spurred by various macroeconomic factors, including renewed threats from President Trump regarding tariffs on Greenland and Japan’s fiscal strategies that have added to market instability. 

Consequently, investors have turned to safe-haven assets like gold, which recently reached a record price exceeding $4,700. In response, Bloomberg warns that macro risks may be underappreciated. 

Demand for downside protection in Bitcoin’s options market is also rising, indicating that investors are aware of the potential for further declines.

The next significant levels for the Bitcoin price in the near term, according to Bloomberg, lie between $84,000 and $85,000, which are expected to act as support for BTC. If the cryptocurrency fails to hold these levels, fears of a deep bear market may become more pronounced.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is down 36% from its recent peak, and the “bear market” label is already circulating across crypto X. But in a thread on Sunday, trader Cristian Chifoi argues that calling a regime shift on the drawdown alone misses the more tradable signal: what happens after the first meaningful rebound, and how price behaves around a tight set of time-based “seasonality windows.”

Chifoi’s core claim is that many commentators default to reactive narratives after volatility has already printed. “The simplest way to determine if the Bitcoin bear market has started is not after we had a 36% correction, as all of crypto analysts online suggest,” he wrote. “The same analysts that suggested a supercycle in November 2021 on, while the price was pumping 100%+.” In his framing, the bear-market question is less about the magnitude of the drop and more about whether any bounce that follows looks like strength or a structurally weak countertrend move that fails over time.

Is Bitcoin In A Bear Market?

Chifoi’s first lens is a cross-check between Bitcoin and USDT dominance (USDT.D), which he describes as an “inverted BTC chart” used as a confluence signal. He also emphasizes timing as the primary indicator, arguing the drawdown has already met a minimum duration he tracks across cycles.

“If you are a trader or not, I also suggest you use time as your first indicator, and price as the second,” he wrote. “We had a 77 day correction from top to bottom already. The price couldn’t get lower. That is the signal, rest is noise.”

From there, his bear-market confirmation playbook hinges on how far Bitcoin can bounce and how long it can sustain momentum. He outlines USDT.D targets: first around 5.5%, then lower levels like 4.7% and maps them to potential BTC levels. A push “lil’ over 100k,” he said, could still qualify as a “dead cat bounce” if it persists for weeks without follow-through. In that case, the bounce itself becomes evidence of weakness rather than a green light for a renewed uptrend.

His second scenario is more uncomfortable for both “cycle is dead” skeptics and early-bear callers: Bitcoin makes a higher high, potentially into the $115,000–$120,000 range, but then stalls out over a multi-week window. Even that, in Chifoi’s view, could be consistent with a bear-market transition if time passes and price cannot “deliver more gains,” turning a nominal breakout into a distribution-like top.

“It is the same game!” he added, arguing that traders should be watching for the same failure mode at different price levels rather than anchoring to a single number.

Chifoi’s second framework is seasonality, centered on a window around January 20 (plus or minus a few days) extending into late March or early April. He says he has been tracking this as a primary decision point since the start of 2026, and frames it as a fork between two paths: either Bitcoin rallies into that date to set a pivot high and roll over, or it forms a pivot low around that date and then pushes higher into the next time pivot.

“A pump into the January 20, over $100-$110k would mean a pivot high and the continuation down into next time pivot,” he wrote. The alternative, he said, is “January 20 pivot low, and then continuation up to next time pivot,” adding he is watching this week’s price action “until Friday” for confirmation.

At the time of writing, Chifoi leans toward the latter interpretation. “For now it seems pretty clear that we are developing a pivot low, and the next move is the opposite one versus what we had from October 6th until now,” he said.

Chifoi positions most market participants into two “camps”: those calling for a supercycle or declaring the cycle framework broken, and those asserting a bear market began in October and ends in October 2026 “just like 2022.” He argues both could get forced into poor positioning if Bitcoin prints a new high in the coming weeks before selling off after April.

His own risk case is broader and more time-focused: a new high followed by a sustained decline into late 2026 or early 2027, which he calls his “next important time pivot.” In that context, the operational takeaway is less about predicting a bear market today and more about letting the next rebound and the January-to-spring window define whether this is a reset inside a broader uptrend or the start of a longer distribution-to-downtrend transition.

“Pay attention these next few weeks,” Chifoi wrote. “I do not know what will happen, but the plan is already set up and will adapt my positioning accordingly, whichever scenario plays out, because I already know what to do in either of the cases.”

At press time, BTC traded at $92,836.