Despite the Bitcoin price recovery above the crucial $90,000 threshold—a level that has historically served as a supportive floor for the cryptocurrency—the market is exhibiting signs that a further correction may be imminent. 

Bitcoin Price Recovery At Risk?

Market expert Rekt Fencer recently shared insights on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, suggesting that the Bitcoin price might be forming what he calls a “massive bull trap.” 

This term refers to a deceptive bullish signal in which the price briefly surpasses a resistance level, in this case, the $90,000 mark, only to reverse into a decline. Such movements can entrap investors who bought in during the peak, leading to significant losses.

Fencer pointed out a troubling pattern reminiscent of early 2022 when Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average (MA)—currently positioned above $102,300—before experiencing a severe decline of roughly 60%, plummeting below $20,000 by June of that year. 

He indicated that the recent price recovery following major drops to $84,000 should not be interpreted as a signal of near-term success, especially since the Bitcoin price is currently trading under the 50-week MA.

If historical trends repeat, this could mean that Bitcoin might see a significant drop, potentially reaching around $36,200, which could potentially represent the low point of the bearish cycle for the cryptocurrency. On the other hand, there are analysts who retain a bullish outlook. 

BTC Bottom In Sight? 

Market researcher and analyst Miles Deutscher expressed a confident sentiment, stating he believes there is a 91.5% likelihood that the Bitcoin price has hit its bottom, based on his analysis of key developments. 

He noted that recent weeks have been dominated by negative news stories, including concerns surrounding Tether (USDT) and the implications of China’s actions on crypto, which he asserts often mark local price bottoms.

Moreover, Deutscher pointed out a shift in market flows from predominantly bearish to bullish. He explained that the trading environment has recently seen a resurgence in buying momentum, with large investors, or “OG whales,” ceasing their selling. This change has been reflected in the order books, indicating a possible stabilization in market sentiment.

Additionally, the liquidity landscape appears to be shifting, with market conditions tightening in recent months. The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair known for dovish policies, coupled with the official end of quantitative tightening (QT), could further influence market dynamics in favor of buyers.

Deutscher concluded by emphasizing that given the extreme levels of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) in the market, combined with improvements in trading flows, he believes that the odds favor the notion that the Bitcoin price has indeed reached its bottom.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) has continued its relief rally since the start of the week, successfully reclaiming the significant $93,000 mark on Wednesday afternoon. This uptick in the cryptocurrency’s price has sparked mixed sentiments among experts regarding its future direction.

Analysts Warn Of Resistance Ahead For Bitcoin

IG analyst Chris Beauchamp highlighted the cautious optimism among Bitcoin enthusiasts, who are wary after witnessing numerous false recoveries in recent months. He noted that there appears to be a shift in risk appetite within the stock market, which is gradually spilling over into the cryptocurrency space. 

However, he pointed out that while last week’s bounce faltered at the $93,000 level, the recent climb above this threshold on Wednesday instills a sense of hope for a more sustained upward movement.

Despite this positivity, analysts warn that more resistance levels are likely to emerge as Bitcoin rallies. Jeff deGraaf from Renaissance Macro Research outlined two significant resistance points to watch: the psychological $100,000 threshold and the $107,000 mark, both amplified by descending moving averages. 

Adding another layer to the Bitcoin discourse, market analyst CryptoBullet has suggested that the Bitcoin cycle top may already be in place, reached last month above $126,000. 

Will Altcoins Bounce Back?

In a social media post, CryptoBullet pointed out that the performance of altcoins, measured against Bitcoin, indicates a bottoming out. This scenario, while concerning, is not unprecedented. 

CryptoBullet recalled a similar situation in September 2019 when Bitcoin was consolidating about 30% below its top following an intense seven-month rally after a bear market low. At that time, altcoins also reached their cycle low.

In the current context, Bitcoin’s rally has lasted significantly longer—35 months compared to the previous seven-month span. Additionally, altcoins have been on a downward trajectory for over four years, effectively more than doubling the duration of their last bear market. 

Looking ahead, CryptoBullet anticipates a challenging correction for Bitcoin in 2026, suggesting a bear market could be on the horizon. In the next two to three months, he predicts a potential bounce for altcoins, signaling a liquidity rotation and possibly a “mini altseason” during what he terms a “Dead Cat Bounce” for Bitcoin. 

This mirrors the events of 2019-2020, when altcoins experienced a relief rally while Bitcoin was on a downward trend. CryptoBullet indicates that a significant altseason is expected in the next cycle, projected for 2027-2029.

At the time of writing, the price of BTC is trading just above $93,000, marking gains of 2% and 3% in the 24-hour and seven-day time frames, respectively. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

After a brief period of consolidation and a bullish uptick to around $93,000 at the end of last week, the Bitcoin price has once again dipped toward the $85,000 mark, recording a significant 7% drop on Monday, according to data from CoinGecko. 

Market expert Shanaka Anslem has pointed to what he refers to as “the weapon” behind this latest crash: Japanese government bonds. 

Expert Warns Of Unraveling Yen Carry Trade

In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the expert highlighted that the yield on Japan’s 10-year bonds reached 1.877 percent on December 1, 2025—the highest level since June 2008—while the 2-year yield hit 1 percent, a benchmark not seen since before the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

He explained that these rising yields have triggered a significant unwinding of what Anslem describes as the largest arbitrage trade in history: the Yen Carry Trade. 

With estimates placing the total size of this trade at around $3.4 trillion and figures nearing $20 trillion, he noted that this allowed global investors to borrow Japanese yen at minimal costs to buy a variety of assets, including stocks, US Treasuries, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. However, this era appears to have ended last month.

The mechanics of this situation are straightforward but impactful, Anslem asserted. As yields rise, the yen strengthens, making leveraged positions increasingly unprofitable. 

He suggested that this leads to a chain reaction: selling triggers margin calls, which in turn causes further liquidations. On October 10, $19 billion in crypto positions were liquidated, marking the largest single-day wipeout in crypto history.

By November, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw $3.45 billion exit the market, with BlackRock’s IBIT suffering a $2.34 billion loss. On December 1 alone, an additional $646 million was liquidated before lunchtime.

Will The Bitcoin Price Plunge To $75,000?

This decline has occurred alongside the Bitcoin price correlations with major stock indices, showing a 46% correlation with the Nasdaq and a 42% correlation with the S&P 500. 

Anslem noted in his analysis that what was once perceived as an “uncorrelated hedge” has now transformed into a leveraged indicator of global liquidity conditions.

Interestingly, despite the Bitcoin price collapse, whale investors accumulated 375,000 BTC during this period. Moreover, miners significantly cut back their selling, reducing monthly sales from 23,000 BTC to just 3,672. 

As the market looks ahead, the expert asserted that a pivotal moment approaches on December 18 with the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decision. 

Anslem concluded that if the bank opts to raise rates and signal further increases, the Bitcoin price could test the $75,000 level, which would represent an additional 11% drop for the market’s leading cryptocurrency from current trading levels. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

As the Bitcoin price exhibits signs of recovery, climbing back above $90,000, the cryptocurrency community finds itself sharply divided. Some analysts believe this movement is merely a relief rally preceding another downturn, while others maintain that a bull market is still in play despite a recent 30% correction.

Current Data Suggests No Cycle Top

Market analyst OxChain went on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), focusing on on-chain data to shed light on the current market dynamics and what investors might expect in the near future. He argues that the recent downturn does not exhibit characteristics typical of a cycle top. 

In October, Bitcoin reached the mid-$120,000 range before experiencing a subsequent decline of approximately 35%. Notably, this drop transpired without the hype, fervor, or speculation that usually accompany a market peak.

The loss of nearly $1 trillion in market value underscores the underlying challenges. As Ethereum (ETH) and mid-cap cryptocurrencies simultaneously declined, there wasn’t an evident frenzy of speculation driving the downturn. Instead, OxChain attributes the decline primarily to a drop in demand. 

A slowdown in stablecoin creation and diminished inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have led to reduced buying activity. Derivatives traders have also stepped back, with funding conditions softening and open interest unwinding.

With market expectations recently leaning toward a potential interest rate cut in December, many buyers have opted to remain on the sidelines, preferring not to chase riskier assets. This hesitancy has led to a “fragile liquidity environment,” the analyst asserted. 

OxChain notes that even medium-sized orders can cause price changes of several percentage points due to the scarcity of resting bids. An examination of order book snapshots reveals that market depth has been waning during active trading periods, leading to a scenario where the market appears to be “running on fumes.”

Bitcoin Market Struggles Without Conviction

The situation in the derivatives market further supports this cautious outlook. Volatility has risen, with traders now leaning toward protective measures rather than building long positions. 

Interestingly, interest in futures contracts has decreased even amid small relief rallies, indicating that many traders are hesitant to take on larger positions.

OxChain highlights a crucial trend: without leveraged conviction, market trends often struggle to gain momentum. On-chain data shows a more cautious sentiment among investors rather than outright fear. 

While the coin days destroyed (CDD) metric has risen due to older coins moving, much of the long-held Bitcoin remains with patient holders who are not in a rush to sell.

Furthermore, the adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR), hovering near 1, signals that there is neither extensive profit-taking nor widespread panic selling taking place. 

The analyst identified that the majority of selling activity has come from mid-term holders, contributing to a muted and indecisive market flow. 

Additionally, institutional investors remained relatively inactive throughout November. Significant outflows were reported in both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which further contributed to the current state of the market. OxChain concluded his analysis by saying:

The broader bullish narrative isn’t gone, but the near-term setup is fragile. Until a strong catalyst appears, expect a wandering market that drifts, chops, and tests lower levels.

When writing, the leading cryptocurrency was trading just above the $91,550 level, recording a 4% price recovery in the 24-hour time frame. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com