XRP has spent most of the past few months trading with lower highs since July 2025, frustrating traders and compressing price action into an increasingly tight range. 

However, a technical breakdown shared by crypto analyst ChartNerd argued that what looks like stagnation may actually be the final preparation phase before a historic move. The price structure suggests something far bigger that sends XRP on its most aggressive rally in eight years, but the implications only become clear when the full setup is examined.

A 400-Day Rectangular Reaccumulation Still Holding Structure

According to technical analysis done by ChartNerd, XRP’s price action has been locked inside a rectangular reaccumulation zone for about 400 days, and this has led to the formation of what looks like a rectangular bull flag on a macro timeframe. The technical chart shows a strong impulsive move from July 2024 to December 2024 acting as the flagpole, right when XRP peaked at the $3.4 price zone back then.

This impulsive flagpole has been followed by a long period of sideways trading where XRP’s price has repeatedly respected a clearly defined support around $1.8 and resistance boundaries around $3.6. This type of structure is associated with reaccumulation within the support and resistance zones, especially when it is playing out after a sharp expansion move and holding for this length of time.

Each dip into reaccumulation support has been absorbed, preventing any sustained breakdown and keeping the broader pattern intact. ChartNerd noted that the rectangular flag will be valid as long as this support level is defended, and this will activate the expansion journey.

XRP Price Chart. Source: @ChartNerdTA on X

Macro Breakout Projection Puts XRP Price Target At $23

According to ChartNerd, bearish participants are increasingly pressured by the fact that this fractal is still holding despite repeated attempts to invalidate it. The longer XRP’s price action is trapped inside the rectangle without breaking down, the more likely it becomes that the eventual resolution favors the dominant trend that preceded the consolidation. In this case, that trend was bullish, which strengthens the case for an upside breakout once resistance is cleared.

If the rectangular bull flag resolves to the upside as projected, the chart outlines a breakout trajectory that would carry XRP into double-digit territory, with a long-term target region near $23. This price target projection is derived from the height of the flagpole extended from the top of the reaccumulation range.

ChartNerd labelled this possible move as one of the most aggressive rallies XRP could see in seven to eight years. At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $1.92, meaning a move toward the $23 region would represent a gain of over 1,000% from current levels, which is a type of percentage expansion XRP has played out well in the past.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The XRP Ledger has entered a new phase of innovation as Ripple integrates to bring together two of the most powerful technology trends shaping the global economy. Long known for its speed, low transaction costs, and enterprise-grade reliability, the Ledger is now expanding beyond payments to data-driven and automated financial applications. By merging AI with decentralized settlement, Ripple is positioning the Ledger to support smarter workflows and more efficient liquidity management.

How Ripple Is Embedding Intelligence Into On-Chain Systems

An analyst known as SMQKE on X has shared a case study of an AI implementation in the cross-border payment, in which Ripple has successfully combined blockchain technology and artificial intelligence to enhance the efficiency, speed, and cost-effectiveness of global transactions.  As a leading provider of real-time cross-border payment solutions, Ripple leverages the XRP Ledger, a decentralized blockchain that enables real-time cross-border settlement. 

Related Reading: Surge In XRP Transactions: 1.45 Million Daily Users Could Signal Price Rally Ahead, Says Expert

What sets this integration apart is the use of AI to optimize transaction flows and routing decisions in real time. Ripple AI-powered systems continuously process large volumes of payment data in real time, allowing financial institutions to make dynamic decisions on the most effective payment paths. 

BlackRock is now using Ripple’s RLUSD as collateral, which is extremely bullish for XRP. JackTheRippler revealed that the altcoin is being positioned as the future infrastructure, which is being built with the potential to hit over $10,000 per coin. With the REAL token launching on January 26th, trillions in global capital could flood into the XRP Ledger. According to JackTheRippler, some projections suggest up to $800 billion could flow into the REAL token on XRP Ledger, potentially sparking a powerful supply shock.

Why The Comeback Feels Different This Time

The rise of the phoenix XRP is here. Crypto analyst Xfinancebull highlighted that Caroline Pham isn’t just another name in crypto. Pham played a role in pushing utility regulation into the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), helping shift policy toward real-world use cases. Currently, she is at MoonPlay and posting about the phoenix on X.

Related Reading: How Donald Trump’s Latest Crypto Move Will Boost Demand For XRP

Years ago, Brad Garlinghouse drew that same phoenix, and it became one of the biggest pieces of XRP lore. While the market chased narratives, Ripple has been building institutional-grade crypto products for years. Meanwhile, the token, RLUSD, and the XRP Ledger are now live operating, and recognized among the most compliant blockchain assets in the crypto world.

This is the same asset that survived the SEC’s biggest regulatory battles in crypto history, and is now on the other side with legal clarity, growing integration, and increasing relevance to government infrastructure in its favor. Xfinancebull concluded that Caroline has helped clear the regulatory path, Brad and Ripple built what actually runs on that path, and they have been aligning all along, which is how the real adoption happens.

A recent statement from an XRP Ledger (XRPL) developer suggests that XRP could be the key to an early retirement shortcut. Unlike steady paychecks or slow-growing investments in traditional assets, cryptocurrencies have the ability to create generational wealth rapidly, due to their penchant for sudden and explosive price moves. Among the thousands of digital assets on the market, the developer highlighted the token as his primary choice for investors seeking substantial returns, even sharing strategies for how the coin can help them retire in a few years. 

XRP Emerges As Shortcut To Early Retirement

A DropCoin XRPL developer, identified as ‘Bird’ on X, announced on Thursday, January 22, that buying and holding XRP at current prices could help investors retire within a few years. The bold claim quickly caught the attention of many in the crypto community, with some asking the developers to elaborate on the strategies involved and the expected timeline for achieving such wealth. 

Related Reading: XRP Price Obliteration Is Not A Matter Of If, New All-Time Highs Are Coming

Not stopping there, Bird claimed that investing in the token could eliminate the need for a job, suggesting that long-term investors may eventually rely on the potential profits from their holdings as a primary source of income. His statements were in response to a post by Watcher.Guru, which the developer directly referenced to support his optimistic long-term outlook. 

In that post, Watcher Guru quoted a statement reportedly made by Binance’s founder ChangPeng Zhao, who also agreed that holding crypto assets over time could make jobs unnecessary and allow investors to retire sooner than planned. The Ledger developer shared a screenshot of Zhao making similar remarks about Artificial Intelligence, suggesting that the Binance founder views both crypto and AI as powerful tools for achieving long-term financial freedom. 

A crypto community member who responded to Bird’s post questioned how long an investor has to hold XRP before retiring early. The developer answered humorously that it could be held indefinitely, adding that some investors could reach early retirement this year, while others may need a few more years. He emphasized that the timeline ultimately depends on how many tokens an investor holds.  

How High The Altcoin Could Rise To Enable Early Retirement

Addressing questions from the crypto community members, Bird shared his outlook on how high he believes XRP’s price could rise, helping investors achieve early retirement. He predicted that within the next few years, the cryptocurrency could rise to $100 and beyond—a significant jump from its current market price of around $1.90. 

Related Reading: How Donald Trump’s Latest Crypto Move Will Boost Demand For XRP

The Ledger developer suggested that reaching $100 could be a gradual process for the altcoin, forecasting an initial rally to $10 in the First Quarter (Q1) of 2026. Notably, Bird’s remarks reflect a classic buy-the-dip and hold strategy, where investors accumulate during downtrends and patiently wait for the price to rally explosively before taking profits.

Crypto analyst CryptoBull has highlighted targets that XRP could reach as it eyes double digits. The analyst is confident the altcoin could reach these targets, noting that current price action is mirroring the previous bull run. 

XRP Eyes Rally To $11 And Then $70

In an X post, Crypto Bull stated that the next impulse will take XRP to $11 and that the last wave will take the altcoin to $70. This came as he noted that the price pattern is mirroring the previous bull run, with the only difference being time, which he claimed makes sense, as the altcoin needs longer accumulation to reach higher prices. 

The analyst also indicated that it could take a year of accumulation for XRP to reach the $11 price target, meaning the last wave to $70 could take much longer. This prediction comes despite the current decline in the crypto market, with XRP trading below the psychological $2 price level.  

Despite the current bearish sentiment, crypto analyst CW has also declared that the XRP rally is about to begin and that the road to $21.5 is just the beginning. He noted that this is the Phase 4 peak while the first goal is for the altcoin to break its current all-time high (ATH). 

His accompanying chart showed that XRP could reach this $21 target by year-end. Meanwhile, there is the possibility of the altcoin rallying above $100 in the next Phase 1, which could happen next year. Crypto Pundit X Finance Bull recently highlighted the CLARITY Act and Trump’s tariffs as factors that could boost XRP’s demand and lead to higher prices for the altcoin. 

He expects the CLARITY Act to boost XRP’s demand, especially with Trump’s Crypto Czar predicting that more banks will enter into crypto once the bill passes. X Finance Bull predicts that XRP will be the token of choice for these banks based on his belief that Ripple will provide the rails to onboard them. 

XRP Breaking Out Of Multi-Year Triangle

Crypto analyst XForce revealed in an X post that XRP is breaking out of the largest 6+ year triangle in history, yet people are calling it a fakeout. He added that he is not a permabull or permanbear on the altcoin but that he follows trends and plays macro breakout patterns. His accompanying chart indicated that XRP was on the verge of a move to the upside, with a potential rally above $11.50. 

On the lower timeframe, crypto analyst Chart Nerd stated that XRP is currently breaking out of a two-week falling wedge structure. He noted that this is a bullish reversal pattern that could send the altcoin back to $2.40 in the short term, as this is where the wedge formed. He highlighted a key resistance between $2.13 and $2.20, which the altcoin will need to break above to confirm a reversal. 

At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.92, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

XRP has begun attracting attention again after months of sideways trading. The coin has risen slightly over the past day, though it remains down for the week. Traders are pointing to familiar chart patterns, suggesting the quiet period may be nearing an end.

Traders Spot A Familiar Price Pattern

A fresh take on XRP came from DonWedge, who posted a half-day chart on TradingView. Though he kept it short – just “XRP looks good” – the message carried weight.

Instead of bold predictions, his analysis leaned on patterns. A downward-sloping channel draws the eye, much like one seen months before.

Shape echoes past rhythm. What stands out is how closely current movement tracks earlier behavior. The image tells part of the story; context fills in the rest. Time will show whether history bends toward repetition.

That old rise in XRP moved fast. Following that climb, it slipped into a steady decline lasting around half a year. Once sellers slowed their pace, the price jumped again without warning.

$XRP looks good pic.twitter.com/OnyChRVzNp

— Don (@DonWedge) January 21, 2026

Fresh lows in XRP’s path hug the bottom stretch of a familiar range, pressure easing – some watchful eyes guess what comes next might climb.

Volume And Resistance Are Key

According to reports, the next major hurdle is a multi-month trendline resistance near $2.10. A clean daily close above this line, combined with rising volume, could signal the start of a new uptrend.

DonWedge projects that if the breakout occurs, XRP could aim for $4. From current levels, this would require a little over a 100% increase. Traders note, however, that moves without volume confirmation can fail, leading to false breakouts and extended consolidation.

Market Expert Projects A Telling Year

Based on reports, analyst ChartNerd says 2026 will be a “telling year” for XRP. He expects the coin either to confirm a strong breakout with fresh momentum or to fall below the structure it has defended for over a year.

After a macro breakout in Q4 2024, $XRP has been accumulating above its prior 2021 highs for over a year. The whole of 2025 was sideways, boring, and a test of even the most durable minds. 2026 is going to be the telling year. Compression typically leads to expansion. Buckle up. pic.twitter.com/QJb7JAmIkL

— ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) January 18, 2026

Lately, the sideways grind has worn thin for some investors – yet hints of resilience still flicker through the numbers. Breaking past $2.10 with force might spark what comes next, lining up with the pattern DonWedge laid out on his chart. Patience now may quietly pay off later.

A Breakout Might Shift What Happens Next

A sudden jump in price might push XRP toward $4 fast, provided it finishes above the trendline with strong movement. Higher goals are possible, yet reaching them means buyers keep stepping in without pause.

So far, things look cautious rather than certain. Traders will probably keep an eye on activity levels, holding back bigger moves until signs become clearer. What happens next might show if XRP surges again or just drifts sideways some more.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The XRP price may be preparing for a long-overdue recovery, as a crypto analyst has just highlighted a critical area that could flip the cryptocurrency’s downward momentum into a bullish one. According to the market expert, XRP must reclaim the Ichimoku Base before it can resume its upside to new levels. 

XRP Price Recovery To Resume Above Ichimoku Base

Market analyst Xaif Crypto took to X this Thursday to deliver a fresh weekly update on XRP as the cryptocurrency enters a pivotal technical area after months of downside pressure. The accompanying chart shows price retreating from a prior peak in late 2024 and sliding back into a clearly marked demand zone in the blue box. 

According to the analyst, the recent retreat follows a clear downtrend, with lower highs pushing price back toward a previous consolidation zone. This blue-box area represents the main battleground, as prior trading activity built a base that could act as support if XRP revisits that level. 

So far, XRP appears to be stabilizing within this demand zone. Candles on the chart show hesitation and reduced selling pressure. The chart also draws attention to an Ichimoku structure, with XRP attempting to reclaim its Ichimoku Base. According to Xaif Crypto, this base will determine XRP’s next big move.

The analyst has suggested that reclaiming this level could signal a potential shift in market sentiment. He disclosed that a strong close above it could favor upside continuation, weakening the ongoing downtrend and giving buyers more room to target upper resistance levels. Conversely, Xaif Crypto predicts that a break below the Ichimoku Base would likely lead to a deeper correction for XRP, as support would be lost and selling could accelerate. 

For now, XRP sits at a make-or-break level that could decide whether it recovers from its current slump. Xaif Crypto’s chart has outlined potential targets if the cryptocurrency manages to reclaim and hold above the Ichimoku Base. Currently hovering around $1.95, XRP faces potential bullish targets at $2.09, $2.20, $2.31, and $2.45. The analyst has also highlighted that traders and investors should closely watch the weekly close for confirmation of a sustained recovery.  

Analyst Says XRP Is Planning A Major Reversal

Despite dropping below $2 earlier this week, analysts remain optimistic about XRP’s price outlook. According to market expert Crypto GVR, XRP could be attempting a major price reversal from the $1-$1.5 range. Based on his chart analysis, the analyst predicts that XRP could decline first from its current price around $1.95 to roughly $1.13 before rebounding sharply to new highs.

He has set a bullish target at $3.25. marking the next upside for XRP. If XRP were to crash to $1.13 and then surge to $3.25, this would represent a staggering 187% increase in value. 

The XRP Ledger has moved one step closer to a major structural upgrade after validators voted in favor of Permissioned Domains. The amendment has now entered its two-week activation window, which is the standard process on the network before new features go live.  The change may sound technical on the surface, but it carries implications for how XRP-based infrastructure could be used by institutions operating under regulatory frameworks.

Validators Vote Yes On Permissioned Domains

According to commentary shared on X by Vincent Van Code, the amendment introducing Permissioned Domains has received enough validator support to pass. Vincent Van Code is a widely followed software engineer in the community. Amendments on the XRP ledger require sustained validator consensus before activation, meaning this approval reflects alignment across a large portion of the network’s validator set. 

Particularly, amendments on the XRP Ledger require over 80% consensus from trusted validators to hold for two consecutive weeks before activating. This process ensures network-wide agreement, preventing forced changes by any single entity. If support drops below the 80% threshold, the amendment is temporarily rejected, and the two-week period restarts.

As it stands, the consensus on permissioned domains is at 85.29%, and the expected time of approval is on February 4, 2026. Once the two-week waiting period concludes, the permissioned domains feature will become active at the protocol level. 

This means developers and institutions will no longer be building applications through off-chain workarounds or private chains. Developers will now be able to start building applications that rely on controlled access rules directly on the public XRP ledger.

How Permissioned Domains Change What Can Be Built On XRPL

According to the XRP Ledger website, permissioned domains are controlled environments within the broader ecosystem of the XRP Ledger blockchain. Anyone can define a permissioned domain in the ledger. That person becomes the owner of that domain and can update its settings or delete it. 

Permissioned Domains introduce a way to create gated environments on the XRP Ledger, where participation is limited to accounts holding specific verifiable credentials. Instead of every address being treated equally by default, certain activities can now be restricted to verified participants only, without altering the open nature of the base ledger. According to Vincent Van Code, this unlocks institutional use cases by restricting access to accounts with specific verifiable credentials. 

This capability opens the door to permissioned decentralized exchanges where regulated trading of tokenized securities, stablecoins, real-world assets, and even FX instruments can occur among compliant counterparties. The same framework also supports controlled lending protocols, restricted liquidity pools, and treasury operations that only approved entities can access.

The vote on permissioned domains plays into a growing trend of institutional entry into the XRP Ledger. While talking at the World Economic Forum in Davos 2026, Ripple’s CEO discussed increasing integration of the XRP Ledger technology with global financial infrastructure, including stronger engagement with banking partners and tokenization efforts. 

XRP’s price action over the past several days has been tight and uneasy in a way that tends to make traders impatient. XRP is now drifting sideways just below $2, compressing into a narrower range between $1.9 and $1.96. To some, this looks like weakness. 

To others, it looks like upside pressure is building. One technical analyst believes XRP’s price action is approaching a moment that could redefine the entire structure. That view was shared on X by crypto analyst Archie, who noted that its current consolidation is a precursor to a violent breakout that will send its price into new all-time highs.

Why The Current XRP Structure Matters

According to the technical analysis in question, XRP has been carving out a tightening pattern directly beneath a descending trendline that has acted as resistance since the beginning of the year. XRP printed a higher high of $2.4 in early January, retraced, and then began compressing into a narrow range of lower highs on the 30-minute candlestick chart. 

The chart shows how the token has repeatedly respected the trendline without collapsing below support at $1.9. This, in turn, has created what Archie describes as a coil right under the resistance trendline. Interestingly, this kind of structure tends to resolve quickly once price makes contact with the trendline again. 

Trendline Obliteration And The Push Beyond $2

According to the analyst’s prediction, the next touch of the trendline will not be another rejection. Instead, the next touch will lead to a clean break that sends XRP decisively through $2, which is a little more than a checkpoint. From his perspective, the repeated tests of resistance have weakened it, increasing the probability of a breakout as opposed to another downward rejection.

At the time of writing, the altcoin is trading at $1.91, down by 2.6% in the past 24 hours. However, looking closely at the chart Archie shared gives structure to what to expect once the trendline breaks.

The first level is just above the descending trendline itself, around the $2.00 to $2.05 region. In the context of the chart, a clean move through this level is what flips the structure from compression below resistance into expansion above resistance.

Above that, the next highlighted resistance is just below $2.20. The chart then shows a broader resistance cluster between roughly $2.35 and $2.40. Reaching and breaking above this zone is much more significant, as it would show that the breakout is a genuine trend reversal.

At the top end of the projection, the highest marked region is around $2.60. This zone appears to be the final upside target shown on the chart and would place XRP firmly into price discovery territory relative to recent structure.

Ripple is laying out a transition in which XRP is no longer positioned primarily as a traded asset, but as infrastructure supporting tokenized finance and institutional settlement. At the World Economic Forum 2026, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse described how this shift is already taking shape through live tokenization activity, regulated integration with banks, and on-chain settlement at scale. 

XRP Tokenization Shifts From Theory To Balance-Sheet Reality

Garlinghouse used tokenization as the primary context for explaining this transition. He described tokenization as a process that has already moved beyond experimentation and into operational use across financial institutions. To support that claim, he pointed to activity on the XRP Ledger, where tokenized asset volume expanded significantly over the course of a single year, rising from roughly $19 trillion to $33 trillion.

That level of growth signals institutional commitment rather than exploratory testing. Tokenized assets at this scale imply the involvement of banks, custodians, and regulated entities moving real value. According to Garlinghouse, institutions are now focused on how to integrate tokenized assets into existing balance sheets, liquidity structures, and settlement processes.

This shift changes what infrastructure is required. Tokenization at institutional scale demands networks that can process high volumes consistently, provide deterministic settlement, and operate continuously. The XRP Ledger is being positioned within this framework as a system capable of supporting that throughput. The emphasis is not on innovation for its own sake, but on reliability and execution under real financial constraints.

As tokenized assets become embedded in core financial operations, the supporting rails stop being optional. They become foundational. That is the context in which XRP is being discussed, not as a standalone asset, but as part of the machinery enabling tokenized finance to function.

Connecting Regulated Assets And On-Chain Liquidity

Garlinghouse also addressed the structural challenge that emerges as tokenization intersects with decentralized finance. Institutions want access to programmability and liquidity, but they cannot compromise compliance, custody, or trust. He described this tension as the central problem Ripple is working to solve.

Rather than positioning itself against traditional finance, Ripple is working directly with global banks to build regulated pathways between tokenized assets and on-chain liquidity. The objective is to allow institutions to interact with decentralized systems without stepping outside regulatory frameworks. Within this design, XRP serves as a settlement and connectivity layer, enabling movement between systems.

This approach reframes XRP’s utility. Its value lies in facilitating finality, liquidity access, and interoperability across regulated and on-chain environments. As tokenized assets, decentralized rails, and institutional settlement converge, networks capable of delivering finality at scale become increasingly important. Garlinghouse emphasized that the XRP Ledger already provides this capability, giving it a structural advantage. As a result, XRP is no longer positioned primarily as a tradeable asset; it is being aligned as infrastructure that enables the issuance, movement, and settlement of value within an increasingly tokenized financial system.

Crypto pundit X Finance Bull has explained how Donald Trump’s push to sign the crypto bill into law will boost demand for XRP. This follows White House Crypto Czar David Sack’s prediction about how banks will come into crypto once the CLARITY Act passes.

How Donald Trump’s Crypto Push Will Boost XRP’s Demand

In an X post, X Finance Bull shared a video in which Donald Trump’s crypto adviser, David Sacks, stated that banks will begin to adopt crypto once the crypto bill passes. The pundit noted that this means banks are already positioned, while Ripple has the stack and XRP has the liquidity, and the rails are in place. As such, he believes that the token will be the go-to crypto once these banks enter the crypto industry. 

X Finance Bull further mentioned that institutions that have been waiting over the past few years will return and announce their buys and use of XRP once Donald Trump signs the CLARITY Act into law. The pundit added that this moment resets who is early and that he never needed hype to hold the altcoin. “Research and study were always enough,” he said. 

X Finance Bull also questioned why market participants were panic-selling if banks are going all in once Donald Trump signs the crypto bill into law. The pundit’s statements come just as Ripple partnered with DXC to integrate the token and RLUSD into DXC’s Hogan core banking platform. 

The banking platform powers more than 300 million deposit accounts and over $5 trillion in deposits globally. As such, this is a major step in XRP’s adoption, as the partnership will integrate Ripple’s payment technology into large-scale banking environments.

Trump’s Tariff Move Will Also Boost The Altcoin

In another X post, X Finance Bull claimed that Donald Trump’s move with tariffs will also boost XRP’s demand.  He shared a video of how the U.S. president said that $18 trillion is flowing into the U.S. economy thanks to these tariffs. The pundit asserted that such money flows put pressure on banks, payroll systems, FX rails, and settlement speed. 

X Finance Bull further noted that this creates nonstop cross-border payments and liquidity needs, and this is where Ripple and XRP come in. He explained that while old rails leak money, Ripple and the altcoin were built to stop that. The pundit also alluded to Ripple executives meeting with Donald Trump and to the token being mentioned as part of the digital asset stockpile. He added that the CLARITY Act is next and that when rules lock in, the U.S. capital will need U.S. rails. 

At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.92, down almost 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

XRP price extended losses and traded below $1.920. The price is now consolidating and might decline further if it remains below $1.980.

• XRP price started a fresh decline below the $1.920 zone.
• The price is now trading below $1.9250 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
• There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance at $1.95 and $2.00 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
• The pair could continue to move down if it stays below $1.950.

XRP Price Dips Again

XRP price failed to stay above $2.00 and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price declined below $1.950 and $1.9350 to enter a short-term bearish zone.

The price even spiked below $1.920. A low was formed at $1.90, and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a recovery wave above $1.9120. The price cleared the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1.987 swing high to the $1.90 low, but the bears remained active.

The price is now trading below $1.950 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If there is a fresh upward move, the price might face resistance near the $1.9450 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1.987 swing high to the $1.90 low. There are also two bearish trend lines forming with resistance at $1.95 and $2.00 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair.

The first major resistance is near the $2.00 level and the second trend line. A close above $2.00 could send the price to $2.050. The next hurdle sits at $2.10. A clear move above the $2.10 resistance might send the price toward the $2.120 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $2.150 resistance. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near $2.20.

Downside Break?

If XRP fails to clear the $1.95 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $1.90 level. The next major support is near the $1.870 level.

If there is a downside break and a close below the $1.870 level, the price might continue to decline toward $1.8480. The next major support sits near the $1.820 zone, below which the price could continue lower toward $1.7880.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $1.90 and $1.870.

Major Resistance Levels – $1.950 and $2.00.

XRP is trading above $1.90 after several weeks of pressure that pushed the token below the $2 psychological level. The pullback comes amid a broader crypto market downturn that has erased roughly $200 billion in total market capitalization since early January.

Related Reading: Dogecoin (DOGE) Rebound Looks Fragile With Multiple Hurdles Ahead

For XRP, the decline has been accompanied by a sharp deterioration in retail sentiment, even as some on-chain analysts and ecosystem participants argue that the current range carries longer-term significance.

While price action remains fragile, the debate around XRP has shifted from short-term momentum to questions of positioning, ownership structure, and adoption-driven fundamentals.

XRP Validator Highlights Accumulation Window Below $2

Crypto investor and XRPL validator 24HRSCRYPTO argues that XRP’s price below $2 represents a narrowing window for accumulation rather than a reflection of weakening fundamentals.

The commentary focuses on affordability and timing, noting that earlier market participants were able to build large positions with relatively modest capital, a dynamic that becomes harder as prices rise.

On-ledger data shows that more than 500,000 XRP Ledger accounts already hold over 10,000 XRP. Since these figures represent accounts rather than individuals, actual concentration may be higher.

According to the validator, this suggests that sizeable XRP holdings are becoming structurally harder to achieve for new entrants, especially if prices move higher.

The analysis also highlights cash flow constraints. Using fixed monthly investment scenarios, 24HRSCRYPTO explains that rising prices mathematically reduce the number of XRP units investors can accumulate over time. From this perspective, scarcity is not framed as sentiment-driven, but as a function of price appreciation.

Retail Sentiment Hits “Extreme Fear” Territory

Data from Santiment shows that XRP retail sentiment has slipped into “extreme fear” for the third time this year. The ratio of positive to negative sentiment dropped below 1.873 on January 20 and has continued to weaken. Historically, similar sentiment lows have coincided with short-term price rebounds, although outcomes have varied.

XRP has already staged a modest recovery, rising from around $1.89 to near $1.95. However, analysts caution that fearful sentiment alone does not guarantee sustained upside, especially in a market shaped by geopolitical uncertainty and declining risk appetite.

Technical Pressure Meets Ecosystem Developments

From a technical standpoint, XRP’s monthly candle has turned bearish, with strong selling noted near the $2.70–$3.00 zone. Analysts point to $1.90 as a key pivot, warning that a monthly close below this level could open the door to deeper supports near $1.60.

Related Reading: Chainlink Drops To $12.50, But Largest Whales Are Accumulating

Similarly, developments within the Ripple ecosystem continue to unfold. The recent Binance listing of RLUSD has expanded liquidity and access to Ripple’s stablecoin infrastructure, while executives maintain that 2026 could mark a shift toward broader institutional use of blockchain-based payments.

Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD chart on Tradingview

Market cap arguments always dominate debates around XRP’s long-term price potential, especially when double-digit and triple-digit targets are mentioned. Critics point to the altcoin’s large circulating supply and compare its implied valuation to banks and major corporations, using that comparison as a reason to dismiss higher price scenarios. 

However, a few analysts also contend that this framework misunderstands what the token is designed to do. According to one such expert, the problem is not the math itself, but the model being used to interpret it.

Why Bank Market Cap Comparisons Miss The Point

Crypto analyst Crypto Luke recently pushed back against the idea that XRP should be valued using the same logic applied to banks and financial institutions. The idea is that banks process enormous volumes of money every day, often in the trillions, but they do not hold that money on their balance sheets. The market capitalizations of banks are based on earnings, risk exposure, regulatory burdens, and operational efficiency, not the total value that flows through their systems.

Comparing XRP to financial institutions such as BNY Mellon mixes two very different concepts. Banks act as intermediaries that move other people’s money and earn fees along the way. The altcoin, on the other hand, is not a company but a liquidity bridge. It is designed to be the asset that actually settles value. Therefore, using equity-style market cap comparisons to judge a settlement asset like XRP leads to conclusions that are incomplete.

What This Means For XRP Price Debates

As noted by the expert, the design question isn’t how much volume moves; it’s how much capital must exist to support that movement without pre-funding.

It is important to note that the claim that market cap theory doesn’t apply to XRP is not a denial of basic math. Price multiplied by supply will always equal market capitalization. However, what Crypto Luke and others are challenging is the assumption that its market cap must be interpreted the same way as that of a bank or a traditional company. 

Related Reading: XRP Price At $10 Too Low? Pundit Says That’s For Retail, Reveals Institutional Targets

Another analyst, Pantoja, dismissed the idea that market cap is a hindrance for the altcoin to reach $1,000. The analyst noted that long-term XRP valuation will hinge on the real-world adoption of its underlying technology. Speaking of adoption, the adoption is talking about the token and the XRP Ledger being used by banks for cross-border settlements.

At the time of writing, XRP has a circulating supply of 60.7 billion XRP tokens. If the cryptocurrency were to reach a double-digit price, such as $10, based on the current supply, the implied market capitalization would be about $607 billion. That sounds extreme at first glance, but it is not automatically impossible. For context, Bitcoin’s market cap is about $1.79 trillion, so this is possible for a cryptocurrency.

This perspective weakens blanket statements that the token cannot reach certain price levels simply because the implied valuation looks large when placed next to corporate balance sheets. At the same time, it does not automatically validate extreme price targets. One crypto analyst, Mason Versluis, noted $10 is a much more realistic price target than $10,000 predictions.

According to a recent technical analysis by market expert Egrag Crypto, XRP has formed a “Super Guppy Compression” against Bitcoin, signaling the potential for a major structural shift. The analyst has revealed what could come next for the XRP/BTC pair following this development, indicating a higher probability of a bullish breakout within the next few months. 

XRP Bitcoin Pair Forms Super Guppy Compression

In his X post, Egrag Crypto provided a detailed breakdown of the XRP/BTC price structure and the recent patterns emerging within its chart. He suggested that the trading pair recently entered a transition phase after a multi-year decline, with price action tightening as the market moved through a period of compression. 

Egrag Crypto revealed that XRP/BTC has completed a Super Guppy Compression pattern, which shows full ribbon compression across both short- and long-term Moving Averages (MA). According to the analyst, this compression signals an upcoming volatility expansion, indicates exhausted selling pressure, and highlights a clear transition phase in the market. 

Color dynamics within the Guppy system on the chart also suggest a shift in market behavior. Egrag Crypto notes that the short-term Moving Averages, or “ribbons” as he calls them, are turning green, signaling early bullish momentum. At the same time, long-term ribbons remain red but are flattening, indicating that the downward trend on XRP/BTC is easing. These developments also show that the market has exited its bearish phase; however, a clear uptrend has yet to emerge, leaving the trading pair in a base-building stage.

From a price-structure perspective, Egrag Crypto notes that XRP/BTC is forming a bullish rectangular pattern. The analyst revealed that the trading pair had repeatedly bounced off support while facing rejection at resistance, indicating that supply is being absorbed rather than aggressively sold off. According to him, this behavior aligns with textbook reaccumulation patterns observed after extended downtrends, signaling a potential upward move ahead. 

Egrag Crypto has shared key targets for where he believes XRP/BTC could go next, depending on its current market structure. He noted that the structure matters more than the underlying emotion, suggesting that although the market may seem quiet, it is actively positioning for a decisive move. 

Analyst Sets Bullish And Bearish Targets For XRP/BTC

Continuing his analysis, Egrag Crypto predicted that over the next three to six months, the XRP/BTC price has a 60-70% chance of a bullish breakout. He added that there is also a 30-40% possibility of an extended consolidation, but only if the market structure breaks—a scenario he considers unlikely. 

Looking at the chart, the analyst has identified two key upside targets and one downside scenario. If XRP/BTC crosses the red resistance line at approximately $0.0000338, Egrag Crypto predicts an initial surge to a “conservative” target of $0.000091, followed by a rise to a “normal” target of $0.00014. Conversely, if a structure break occurs, XRP/BTC could plunge from $0.0000193 to $0.00000668.

The idea of a cryptocurrency like XRP competing directly with global banks once sounded unrealistic, but that line is starting to blur. Ripple, the payments technology company behind XRP, has spent recent months pushing deeper into payments, liquidity, custody, and treasury infrastructure with acquisitions. 

This has seen the role of XRP changing from a settlement token into something that increasingly mirrors core banking functions. The question is no longer whether Ripple can coexist with global banks, but what changes if it begins competing head-on with them.

A Strategic Challenge For Banks

Recent acquisitions and commentary across the global financial landscape have seen conversations about XRP’s role as a cross-border settlement token change into what might happen if Ripple starts competing with banks. Ripple has completed several high-profile acquisitions in recent months that extend its reach into treasury services, trading infrastructure, stablecoin rails, and custody, and each of these deals speaks to a broader strategy. 

One of the most consequential moves was Ripple’s purchase of Hidden Road in April 2025. Hidden Road is a global prime broker that clears trillions annually and serves more than 300 institutional clients. With Hidden Road, which now operates as Ripple Prime, Ripple is now in charge of a multi-asset clearing, prime brokerage, and financing business. 

Another significant acquisition was that of GTreasury, a treasury management platform bought for about $1 billion in October 2025. Ripple also agreed to acquire Rail, a stablecoin payments platform, for around $200 million in August 2025. Integrating Rail’s stablecoin-focused technology strengthens Ripple’s broader payments ecosystem and helps better position its stablecoin, Ripple USD (RLUSD).

That acquisition sits alongside other strategic deals completed in recent months, such as the purchases of Palisade and, most recently, Sydney-based fintech firm Solvexia on January 6, 2026 by GTreasury.

Can Ripple Start Competing With Major Banks?

Ripple has always been clear about its stance of competing with SWIFT as the leading global messaging network for financial institutions across the globe. Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, noted that the company plans to capture up to 14% of SWIFT’s current cross-border volume within the next five years. 

Ripple’s partnerships with over 300 banks and financial institutions around the world already show how its blockchain rails are being used to speed cross-border settlement and manage liquidity efficiently. Many partners use RippleNet’s messaging for faster transfers, and those that use XRP often do so to tap into liquidity corridors that eliminate the need for massive prefunded accounts on both ends of a transaction.

Vincent Van Code, a popular crypto commentator on X, noted that Ripple is now encroaching on banks’ multi-trillion-dollar treasury, remittance, and custody revenue streams, areas that have historically been protected by legacy infrastructure. Ripple was held back for years by external constraints, but those barriers are now giving way and all the strategic pieces are beginning to fall into place.

Most banks are working on outdated systems and will soon be forced to rebuild their infrastructure from the ground up, a process that could cost between $3 billion and $4 billion per institution just to remain competitive.

XRP is increasingly being positioned as the core infrastructure for moving massive amounts of value across global financial networks. As trillions of dollars move daily across borders, platforms, and asset classes, the limitations of legacy systems are becoming impossible to ignore. Its core value lies in its ability to function as a neutral, high-speed bridge between disparate financial systems.

Is XRP Becoming A Standard Layer For Value Transfer?

XRP is building the rails for trillions, and the shift is already happening. Crypto analyst Xfinancebull reported a video on X where Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse revealed at Davos 2026 that the payment firm has been working directly with banks around the world to connect tokenization and DeFi through the XRP Ledger, thereby turning it into a bridge between traditional finance and on-chain markets.

The number alone shows how fast the tokenized asset is moving. In just one year, the volume has grown from $19 trillion to $33 trillion, which is a 75% increase. According to Xfinancebull, most people still have no idea how big this will get. 

This is the shift; the rails are being laid right now, and XRP Ledger is one of the few networks that are ready to handle it. When institutional money starts moving at scale, it won’t care about the narratives or favorite altcoins. Instead, it will flow to where the infrastructure already exists, which is bullish for XRP.

Why Respecting Channel Levels Signals A Healthy Market Structure

The XRP market capitalization structure still looks constructive. An analyst known as Bird has highlighted that on the higher-time frame chart, XRP has been moving inside a clear descending accumulation channel for the past six months, and price has respected the top, mid-range, and bottom of that channel almost perfectly, which is exactly what should play out during a healthy accumulation phase.

Related Reading: XRP Maintains Bullish Bias Above $1.30 Despite Recent Rejection

Recently, the price pushed into the upper half of the channel, and then pulled back this week to retest the mid-range support. If this level continues to hold, the structure suggests that the altcoin is set up for another push higher, in Bird’s opinion. However, what makes this setup more interesting is how well it lines up with what’s happening across the broader market. 

The Russel 2000 is sitting at all-time highs, metals are starting to look like they are topping, Bitcoin dominance is beginning to feel heavy, Brad Garlinghouse speaks at Davos today, and the recent wave of community riddles has dropped this week. Bird concluded that when multiple signals start lining up like this, it usually means the market is preparing for a larger move. From the chart perspective, Bird remains bullish on the XRP setup.

Rumors about XRP suddenly becoming useless and less relevant appear to be spreading across the crypto market following the introduction of Ripple’s stablecoin, RLUSD. Crypto market analyst XFinanceBull recently took to X to debunk these claims, stating that, rather than being a potential threat, RLUSD was created to complement XRP’s functionality and use cases on the ledger.

Why Ripple’s RLUSD Poses No Danger To XRP 

In his post, XFinanceBull revealed that many in the crypto community now see XRP as less useful because of RLUSD. These concerns carry weight given the growing dissatisfaction over XRP’s price struggles. Furthermore, with a stablecoin in place, the perception is that XRP’s use cases could deteriorate, especially given RLUSD’s greater stability. 

Addressing these growing concerns, XFinanceBull emphasized that XRP and RLUSD serve different purposes within the ecosystem. His commentary aims to correct the misconception that RLUSD was introduced to replace XRP. The analyst referenced statements from Ripple’s former Chief Technology Officer (CTO), David Schwartz, who, in a video, clearly explained the distinct roles of XRP and RLUSD, highlighting how the stablecoin benefits the altcoin rather than threatens it. 

According to XFinanceBull, Schwartz stated that RLUSD attracts large, credible flows to the XRP Ledger (XRPL), and this capital provides structural benefits to XRP. The analyst declared that RLUSD does not replace XRP, but instead amplifies its functionality. He added that as liquidity grows through the stablecoin, more payment routes are created, leading to increased XRP burns. 

XFinanceBull also noted that every stablecoin trade within the Ripple ecosystem indirectly drives demand for XRP as a bridge asset. He concluded that the world will eventually realize that utility is not defined by a whitepaper alone, but by real transaction flows. He added that although the XRP price may be declining, its rails are still being built.  

How RLUSD Benefits XRP

In the video shared by XFinanceBull, Schwartz stated that RLUSD is designed to benefit XRP. He explained that RLUSD strengthens XRP by introducing more credible assets onto the XRP Ledger, thereby expanding the network’s use cases and creating more opportunities for developers. 

The former Ripple CTO also revealed that adding trusted assets, such as RLUSD, increases trading activity on XRPL’s DEX. According to him, higher trading volume generates both direct and indirect benefits for the decentralized network and its native token, XRP. 

A key advantage of the XRPL DEX is its auto-bridging feature, which uses XRP to facilitate trades between different assets. Schwartz said that this mechanism allows XRP to act as an intermediary, helping users find the most efficient trading routes. He added that RLUSD and XRP are designed to complement each other, given their different roles within the ecosystem. While the stablecoin offers price stability, the altcoin functions as a bridge currency within Ripple’s payment products. This means that as RLUSD usage grows, demand for XRP is reinforced.

With the market still weak and uncertainty lingering, concerns of another XRP price crash are growing. This comes as selling pressure increases and market dynamics show no clear indications of an upcoming bullish reversal. Notably, XRP’s ongoing downtrend also coincides with a decline in both retail and institutional activity, underscoring weakened confidence across the broader market. 

XRP Price Stays Weak Amid Retail And Institutional Decline 

After jumping above $2 earlier this year, the XRP price stayed stuck around that level for weeks, repeatedly attempting to break to the upside but failing. Following last week’s unexpected price increase, the cryptocurrency crashed down toward $1.95, where it has since stabilized and continued to consolidate for several days. This unexpected downturn suggests that XRP remains just as weak as it was last year despite the brief rally. 

This weakness and price volatility appear to be driven by a slowdown in institutional participation. As selling pressure continues to mount, Spot XRP ETFs have recently recorded their second outflow since launching in November 2025. This latest outflow marks the largest ever recorded by XRP ETFs. 

According to SoSoValue, the first XRP ETF outflow occurred earlier this year, on January 7, when $40,80 million exited the investment products. The most recent data shows that XRP ETFs recorded another outflow of approximately $53.32 million on Tuesday, January 20. 

Grayscale was the only issuer to post outflows that day, with more than $55.39 million leaving its GXRP ETF, while products issued by Canary, Bitwise, and 21 Shares saw zero flows. Meanwhile, Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ recorded inflows of $2.07 million, which only slightly offset the losses, bringing the net daily outflow to $53.32 million. 

If more outflows occur, the continued drop in institutional activity, combined with XRP’s weakened price, could push the cryptocurrency lower. At present, XRP is trying to recover from recent losses, with its price rising approximately 1.62% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. 

XRP Open Interest Crash Adds To Weakness

In addition to the decline in ETF inflows, XRP’s Open Interest (OI) has reportedly crashed to new lows, signaling a sharp reduction in trading activity and retail market participation. Data from Coinglass shows that XRP’s derivatives market saw its futures Open Interest fall to $3.35 billion this Wednesday. This marks the lowest level recorded since January 1, 2026, when OI declined to $3.33 billion. 

A drop in Open Interest often indicates that traders may be losing interest in XRP’s upside potential. This waning optimism and confidence may be further fueled by growing geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty. Investors appear to be adopting a more risk-off approach, reflected in the crypto Fear and Greed Index, which has entered extreme fear territory. 

XRP price started a recovery wave above $1.950 but failed near $2.00. The price is now showing a few bearish signs and might decline below $1.920.

• XRP price started a recovery wave above the $1.950 zone.
• The price is now trading below $2.00 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
• There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.00 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
• The pair could continue to move down if it settles below $1.920.

XRP Price Faces Key Hurdle

XRP price remained supported above $1.8650 and started a recovery wave, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was able to climb above $1.90 and $1.920 to enter a short-term positive zone.

There was also a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2.028 swing high to the $1.868 low. The price even spiked above $1.980 before the bears appeared. The bulls failed to clear the $2.00 resistance. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.00 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair.

The price is now trading below $2.00 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If there is a fresh upward move, the price might face resistance near the $1.990 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2.028 swing high to the $1.868 low.

The first major resistance is near the $2.00 level. A close above $2.00 could send the price to $2.0650. The next hurdle sits at $2.10. A clear move above the $2.10 resistance might send the price toward the $2.150 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $2.20 resistance. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near $2.250.

Another Drop?

If XRP fails to clear the $2.00 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $1.920 level. The next major support is near the $1.90 level.

If there is a downside break and a close below the $1.90 level, the price might continue to decline toward $1.8650. The next major support sits near the $1.820 zone, below which the price could continue lower toward $1.750.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $1.920 and $1.90.

Major Resistance Levels – $2.00 and $2.065.

XRP has slipped below the $2 mark, extending a week-long decline that has unsettled traders and renewed questions about the token’s short-term outlook.

The drop comes amid heavy outflows from XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), broader market weakness tied to U.S. tariff developments, and fresh debate over Ripple’s growing focus on stablecoins for global payments.

After briefly recovering to around $2.20 in mid-January, XRP fell as low as $1.85 over the weekend following what market commentators described as a liquidity sweep.

XRP ETF Outflows Add to Selling Pressure

XRP-linked ETFs recorded their largest daily outflow since launching in November 2025. On January 20, investors pulled roughly $53 million from these products, with the Grayscale XRP ETF accounting for most of the losses. Cumulative net inflows have now fallen back to levels last seen in early January.

The outflows mirrored a wider risk-off move across U.S. markets. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs also saw heavy redemptions, while only Solana and Chainlink products attracted fresh capital.

The sell-off followed renewed concerns over Trump’s tariff threats against Europe and Greenland, which triggered the biggest intraday market drop since October 2025.

Technical and On-Chain Signals Remain Weak

From a technical standpoint, XRP is trading below key moving averages, including the 50-day and 200-day levels, with resistance forming near the $2 zone.

Indicators such as the Percentage Price Oscillator and MACD suggest continued bearish momentum. Analysts note that $1.85–$1.90 is now a critical support range, with further downside possible if selling pressure persists.

On-chain data also points to rising stress among longer-term holders. According to Glassnode, investors who bought XRP six to twelve months ago are holding at higher cost bases than recent buyers. This dynamic, similar to patterns seen in early 2022, can encourage selling into small rallies as underwater holders look to exit positions.

Stablecoin Focus Raises Questions for XRP

Adding to uncertainty is Ripple’s recent emphasis on stablecoins as the future of global settlement. Company president Monica Long has said regulated stablecoins like Ripple USD (RLUSD) are likely to become foundational in global payments over the next five years, particularly in business-to-business transactions.

While Ripple executives continue to say XRP and the XRP Ledger remain central to the company’s infrastructure, the lack of direct references to the token in recent statements has unsettled some holders.

RLUSD’s market capitalization has grown rapidly, and stablecoin activity on the XRP Ledger has increased, but investors are watching closely to see how this translates into sustained demand for XRP itself.

Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD chart on Tradingview