Bitcoin Magazine

A Pivotal Moment for Bitcoin Price

As the Federal Reserve prepares to end Quantitative Tightening (QT), the bitcoin price stands at a critical macroeconomic inflection point. With odds for a December rate cut now pricing it in as almost a certainty, the stage is set for a potential shift in monetary policy that could fundamentally alter the trajectory of Bitcoin and broader risk assets. History suggests that when the Fed’s balance sheet stops contracting, Bitcoin typically experiences significant bullish catalysts.

Balance Sheet Reversals and the Bitcoin Price

The Fed balance sheet versus Bitcoin chart reveals a compelling pattern. Over Bitcoin’s history, there have been only three previous instances where QT ended and the federal balance sheet began flatlining or expanding. The first occurred on October 27, 2010, followed almost immediately by a massive Bitcoin bull rally. The second instance on September 26, 2012, again resulted in an explosive rally into the 2013 double-peak cycle. The third signal came in 2019, though this one was complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic and initial market crash—yet it eventually drove Bitcoin from around $3,000 to over $67,000.

Business Cycle Impact on Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin’s recent stagnation despite rising Global M2 suggests that monetary liquidity alone isn’t driving prices. Instead, the asset appears increasingly correlated with traditional business cycle indicators, particularly the U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). This metric measures manufacturing confidence and economic activity, and its correlation with S&P 500 yearly returns is striking: when PMI rises, equities typically deliver outsized returns; when PMI falls, markets enter periods of underperformance or recession.

A leading indicator for PMI trends is the copper-to-gold ratio. This relationship is nearly perfectly correlated, but copper often leads, bottoming ahead of PMI rallies and topping before PMI declines. Currently, the Copper/Gold ratio appears to be bottoming out, aligning with the historical timeline of Fed balance sheet reversals. This suggests the traditional business cycle may be about to turn favorable again after a period of economic softening.

Conclusion: Next Move for Bitcoin Price

The end of QT, combined with a resurgent Copper/Gold ratio and historical precedent spanning Bitcoin’s entire existence, suggests that monetary conditions are about to become materially more favorable. While Bitcoin has recently lagged traditional assets, this underperformance appears tied to deteriorating economic confidence rather than fundamental weakness in Bitcoin itself. As both monetary policy and business cycle indicators potentially turn positive, the confluence of these forces could mark the beginning of a significant trend reversal. Bitcoin stands positioned to benefit from this dual tailwind, making the coming weeks and months critical for monitoring whether these historical signals finally translate into sustained price appreciation.

For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post A Pivotal Moment for Bitcoin Price first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin has rallied more than 12% since last week’s sharp drop to the $80,000 low, offering the market a brief moment of relief after an intense period of capitulation. Despite this rebound, fear and uncertainty continue to dominate sentiment, especially following what analysts describe as the largest short-term holder capitulation in Bitcoin’s history.

This wave of realized losses—fast, aggressive, and record-breaking—has left many investors questioning whether the recent recovery is sustainable or simply a temporary bounce in a broader downtrend.

According to new data from Glassnode, the path ahead remains challenging. Analysts explain that Bitcoin must break above the major supply clusters created by top buyers earlier in the cycle if it is to regain meaningful upward momentum.

These clusters represent areas where a large number of investors previously bought at higher prices and may now look to exit at breakeven, increasing the likelihood of heavy sell-side pressure as BTC climbs.

Bitcoin Faces Critical Supply Barriers

Glassnode reports that Bitcoin is now approaching two major supply clusters that will play a decisive role in determining whether the recent rebound can evolve into a sustained recovery. The first cluster sits between $93,000 and $96,000, while the second—much larger and more structurally important—spans $100,000 to $108,000.

These zones were formed by heavy buying activity earlier in the cycle and represent areas where many investors are currently underwater or sitting near breakeven.

Because of this, Glassnode notes that these ranges typically act as strong resistance, as recent buyers who endured the latest drawdown may choose to sell once the price returns to their entry levels. This dynamic can create temporary supply walls, slowing down momentum even in moments of aggressive recovery.

Bitcoin’s ability to break through these clusters will determine whether it can re-establish a path toward a new all-time high or remain trapped under heavy distribution pressure. The market is now entering a critical phase, with traders closely watching how BTC behaves as it approaches these levels. A clean breakout would signal renewed confidence, while rejection could signal that the broader corrective structure is not yet over.

Testing Support After a Sharp Multi-Week Selloff

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a market attempting to stabilize after one of the most aggressive drawdowns of the cycle. BTC has rebounded to the $91,500 area following a deep wick to the $80K region last week, signaling that buyers are finally stepping in at key support. This rebound coincides with a strong weekly candle showing a long lower shadow, a classic sign of demand absorption during heavy selloffs.

However, despite this bounce, the broader structure remains fragile. The price is trading below the 50-week moving average, a level that previously acted as reliable support throughout the bull phase. Losing this dynamic support earlier in the month was a significant technical break, and BTC is now attempting to reclaim it from below—typically a challenging move that often acts as resistance.

The 100-week moving average around the mid-$80K region has proven critical, halting the decline and serving as the primary area where buyers defended the trend. As long as BTC holds above this zone, the broader market avoids confirming a deeper macro reversal.

Volume remains elevated, reflecting capitulation-level activity, and the market is now in a decisive phase. A sustained close above $92K–$94K would strengthen recovery prospects, while rejection would risk another retest of the $80K support.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

The crypto market is facing a wave of misinterpretation as Coinbase’s large-scale wallet rebalancing, which began on November 22, 2025, continues to distort major on-chain indicators. Many dashboards now display what appears to be an unprecedented $68 billion Long-Term Holder (LTH) “sell” spike — but according to analysts, this is not real distribution. Instead, it’s the direct result of Coinbase transferring coins internally as part of its routine wallet restructuring process.

This distinction is critical. Several prominent analysts and market commentators have highlighted massive outflows, huge shifts in LTH supply, and unusual wallet movements, yet many have failed to mention the underlying cause: Coinbase’s internal reshuffling. Without this context, market participants might wrongly conclude that long-term holders are panic-selling at scale, reinforcing fear during an already fragile market environment.

These rebalancing events have happened before, but the size of Coinbase’s holdings means even normal internal operations can trigger dramatic spikes in on-chain metrics such as LTH Net Position Change, Exchange Netflow, and Spent Output Age Bands.

Coinbase Internal Transfers Distorted Key On-Chain Metrics

According to detailed analysis by Axel Adler, Coinbase’s internal migration of approximately 800,000 BTC created one of the largest distortions in on-chain data ever recorded — without a single coin being sold.

The exchange executed 286 transactions totaling 798,636 BTC, moving funds from legacy P2PKH (Pay-to-Public-Key-Hash) addresses to modern P2WPKH (SegWit) addresses. This technical reorganization produced an artificial $68 billion “realized profit” spike, misleading many market observers into interpreting it as massive long-term holder distribution.

This large UTXO migration disrupted several major on-chain indicators. LTH and STH Supply metrics were temporarily skewed, showing a sharp drop in Long-Term Holder supply and a rise in Short-Term Holder supply — a pattern typically associated with heavy “smart money” selling. In reality, no distribution occurred; Coinbase simply restructured its internal wallets.

The distortion also affected LTH Realized Profit/Loss models, which reflected tens of billions in phantom gains, and HODL Waves, where UTXO ages were “reset,” suggesting long-term holders had suddenly spent old coins. Even Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) showed a significant spike, mimicking an “old coin awakening,” though the activity was entirely internal.

These disruptions highlight how exchange operations can temporarily break the reliability of on-chain metrics, requiring careful interpretation from analysts and investors.

Total Market Rebounds but Remains Under Critical Pressure

The Total Crypto Market Cap chart shows a sharp rebound after tagging the $2.88T zone, a level that aligns closely with the 100-week moving average (green), acting as a key structural support in previous cycles. This bounce has pushed total valuation back above the $3T mark, but the broader trend remains fragile after weeks of heavy selling across majors like BTC and ETH.

Price structure highlights a clear breakdown from the $3.6T–$3.8T consolidation zone, followed by a fast, impulsive decline—mirroring the speed of corrections seen during 2021 and mid-2022. Despite the latest recovery candle, the market remains below the 50-week moving average (blue), signaling that buyers must regain momentum quickly to avoid deeper downside toward the 200-week moving average near $2T.

Volume has surged on recent sell-offs, showing widespread forced selling and capitulation behavior—a pattern consistent with cycle mid-reset phases. The rebound, however, shows reduced sell volume, suggesting exhaustion from bearish participants. To confirm strength, total market cap must reclaim the $3.25T–$3.3T area, which currently acts as the first major resistance.

Failure to break above this zone risks further consolidation or a retest of the $2.8T support. For now, the market shows early signs of stabilization, but broader recovery depends on Bitcoin’s ability to sustain its own rebound and restore confidence across altcoins.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

If you work on simple digital projects, just about any bench supply will offer the voltage and current you’re looking for. However, if you’re working with valves, you’ll often find yourself needing much higher voltages that can be tricky to source. [Chappy Happy] has shared a design for a simple HV power supply that should prove useful to vacuum tube enthusiasts.

The build is fairly basic in nature, lacing together some commonly available parts to generate the necessary voltages for working with common vacuum tubes from a 12 volt DC input. Inside the supply is a UC3843A DC boost converter, set up to output high voltage up to around 300 volts DC, with a ripple filter added for good measure. The output can be adjusted with a knob, with a voltmeter on the front panel. There’s also a 12-volt output, and a LM2596 step down converter to produce 6.3 volts for the filament supply. The whole project is built in an old Heathkit project box, and he demonstrates the supply with a simple single-tube amplifier.

If you find yourself regularly whipping up tube circuits, you might like to have something like this on your workbench. Or, you might even consider cooking up your own tubes from scratch if you’re more adventurous like that. Video after the break.

[Thanks to Stephen Walters for the tip!]

Bitcoin Magazine

Why the Bitcoin Price May Be Decoupling From Its Four-Year Cycle

Has the bitcoin price finally broken away from its four-year cycle pattern, or is this bull market already entering exhaustion? By studying historical growth rates, liquidity data, and macroeconomic correlations, we can better understand whether the current cycle has truly diverged, and what that means for investors in the months ahead.

Bitcoin Price Cycle Duration

Analyzing BTC Growth Since Cycle Lows, we can see that Bitcoin has now officially surpassed the elapsed time from cycle low to cycle high seen in previous bull markets. The 2018–2022 cycle peaked 1,059 days after its prior bear market low, and the current cycle has now moved beyond that duration. If we average the elapsed time across the last two full market cycles, Bitcoin has already exceeded the historical mean and is on the verge of surpassing even the 2017 cycle length in the coming days.

Diminishing Impact on Bitcoin Price

Historically, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle was rooted in its halving events, where the block reward, and thus the inflation rate, was cut in half. Each halving triggered a sharp supply shock, driving major bull markets. However, this cycle has behaved differently. Following the most recent halving, Bitcoin experienced five months of sideways consolidation rather than the explosive post-halving rallies seen previously. While price has since made notable gains, momentum has been weaker, leading many to ask whether the halving has lost its influence.

With the current Circulating Supply already exceeding 95% of the 21 million ultimate total supply of Bitcoin, the marginal supply reduction may no longer be as significant. Today, miners distribute roughly 450 newly created BTC per day, an amount easily absorbed by a handful of institutional buyers or ETFs. That means the halving alone may no longer be the dominant driver of Bitcoin’s market cycles. 

Global Liquidity Cycles Driving the Bitcoin Price

When we view Global M2 Money Supply versus BTC on a year-on-year basis, a clear pattern emerges. Each major Bitcoin bottom has aligned almost perfectly with the trough of Global M2 liquidity growth. 

If we map the Bitcoin halvings and the M2 troughs side by side, we see that halvings typically lag the liquidity cycle, suggesting that liquidity expansion, not halving events, may be the true catalyst for Bitcoin’s rallies. This isn’t unique to Bitcoin. Gold has shown the same behavior for decades, with its price performance closely mirroring the rate of Global M2 expansion or contraction.

Inverse Correlations Shaping Bitcoin Price Trends

A key part of this liquidity story lies in the U.S. Dollar Strength Index (DXY). Historically, BTC versus DXY on a year-on-year basis has been almost perfectly inversely correlated. When the dollar strengthens year-on-year, Bitcoin tends to enter bear market conditions. When the dollar weakens, Bitcoin begins a new bull market. This inverse relationship also holds true for Gold and equity markets, underscoring the broader debasement cycle thesis that as fiat currencies lose purchasing power, hard assets rapidly appreciate.

Currently, the DXY has been in a short-term uptrend, coinciding with Bitcoin’s recent consolidation. However, the index is now approaching a key historical resistance zone, one that has previously marked major turning points and preceded prolonged DXY declines. If this pattern holds, the next major drop in dollar strength could trigger a renewed upcycle for Bitcoin.

Quantitative Tightening and the Bitcoin Price

Comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently hinted that the era of balance sheet contraction (quantitative tightening) may be nearing an end. Looking at the Fed Balance Sheet versus BTC, the start of balance sheet expansion and renewed quantitative easing has historically coincided with major upward moves in Bitcoin and equity markets alike.

During the two years following previous Fed balance sheet expansions, the S&P 500 averaged a 47% return, more than five times the average two-year performance during neutral periods. If we are indeed entering a new easing phase, it could not only prolong Bitcoin’s current cycle but also set the stage for a liquidity-driven melt-up across risk assets.

Conclusion: The Evolving Bitcoin Price Cycle

Bitcoin has now outlasted the timeframes of its previous two cycles, leading many to question whether the four-year rhythm still applies. But when we step back, a different narrative emerges, one driven not by programmed scarcity, but by Global liquidity, fiat debasement, and macro capital flow. The “four-year cycle” may not be broken, but it may have simply evolved.

If the U.S. Dollar weakens, the Fed pauses tightening, and Global M2 growth accelerates, then Bitcoin likely still has room to run.  For now, as always, the best approach remains the same: react, don’t predict. Stay data-driven, stay patient, and keep your eyes on liquidity.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Where Are We In This Bitcoin Cycle

For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Why the Bitcoin Price May Be Decoupling From Its Four-Year Cycle first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

In 2016, NASA awarded a Commercial Resupply Services-2 contract to Sierra Space, formerly part of Sierra Nevada Corporation, to resupply the International Space Station with its Dream Chaser spaceplane and companion Shooting Star cargo module. As part of its contract, Sierra Space was awarded a minimum seven flights, and the agency previously issued firm-fixed price task orders for four Dream Chaser resupply missions based on the needs of the space station.

After a thorough evaluation, NASA and Sierra Space have mutually agreed to modify the contract as the company determined Dream Chaser development is best served by a free flight demonstration, targeted in late 2026. Sierra Space will continue providing insight to NASA into the development of Dream Chaser, including through the flight demonstration. NASA will provide minimal support through the remainder of the development and the flight demonstration. As part of the modification, NASA is no longer obligated for a specific number of resupply missions; however, the agency may order Dream Chaser resupply flights to the space station from Sierra Space following a successful free flight as part of its current contract. 

“Development of new space transportation systems is difficult and can take longer than what’s originally planned. The ability to perform a flight demonstration can be a key enabler in a spacecraft’s development and readiness, as well as offering greater flexibility for NASA and Sierra Space,” said Dana Weigel, manager of NASA’s International Space Station Program. “As NASA and its partners look toward space station deorbit in 2030, this mutually agreed to decision enables testing and verification to continue on Dream Chaser, as well as demonstrating the capabilities of the spaceplane for future resupply missions in low Earth orbit.”

NASA, and its commercial and international partners, will continue to supply the orbital complex with critical science, supplies, and hardware as the agency prepares to transition to commercial space stations in low Earth orbit.   NASA continues to work with a variety of private companies to develop a competitive, space industrial base for cargo services, which will be needed for future commercial space stations. With a strong economy in low Earth orbit, NASA will be one of many customers of private industry as the agency explores the Moon under the Artemis campaign and Mars along with commercial and international partners.

Russian crypto traders have been looking to obtain unrestricted accounts for global exchanges as their access to such platforms is limited. Over the past year, the offering of such accounts on the dark web has increased significantly, cybersecurity experts told the Russian press.

Supply of Crypto Exchange Accounts for Russian Users Doubles in a Year of Sanctions

More and more ready-to-use accounts for cryptocurrency exchanges are being sold to Russian residents. While this is not a new phenomenon — such accounts are often employed by fraudsters and money launderers — the current growth in supply has been attributed to the restrictions imposed by the trading platforms on customers from Russia, as a result of compliance with sanctions over the war in Ukraine.

Russian residents have been buying these accounts despite the dangers, including the risk that whoever created them could maintain access after the sale, the Kommersant reported. But they are inexpensive and offers on darknet markets have doubled since early 2022, Nikolay Chursin from the Positive Technologies information security threat analysis group told the business daily.

According to Peter Mareichev, an analyst at Kaspersky Digital Footprint Intelligence, the number of new ads for ready-made and verified wallets on various exchanges reached 400 in December. Proposals to prepare fake documents for passing know-your-customer procedures also rose, the newspaper revealed in an earlier article last month.

Simple login data, username and password, is typically priced at around $50, Chursin added. And for a fully set up account, including the documents with which it was registered, a buyer would have to pay an average of $300. Dmitry Bogachev from digital threat analysis firm Jet Infosystems explained that the price depends on factors such as the country and date of registration as well as the activity history. Older accounts are more expensive.

Sergey Mendeleev, CEO of defi banking platform Indefibank, pointed out that there are two categories of buyers — Russians that have no other choice as they need an account for everyday work and those who use these accounts for criminal purposes. Igor Sergienko, director of development at cybersecurity services provider RTK-Solar, is convinced that demand is largely due to crypto exchanges blocking Russian accounts or withdrawals to Russian bank cards in recent months.

Major crypto service providers, including leading digital asset exchanges, have complied with financial restrictions introduced by the West in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Last year, the world’s largest crypto trading platform, Binance, indicated that, while restricting sanctioned individuals and entities, it was not banning all Russians.

However, since the end of 2022, a number of Russian users of Binance have complained about having their accounts blocked without explanation, as reported by Forklog. Many experienced problems for weeks, including suspended withdrawals amid prolonged checks, affected customers said. The company told the crypto news outlet that the blocking of users from Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States was related to the case with the seized crypto exchange Bitzlato.

Do you think the restrictions will push more Russians towards buying ready-made accounts for cryptocurrency exchanges? Share your thoughts on the subject in the comments section below.

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