The crypto market is down today again. The cryptocurrency market capitalisation decreased by 0.8% over the past 24 hours, now standing at $3.05 trillion. At the time of writing, 93 of the top 100 coins recorded price drops. The total crypto trading volume stands at $139 billion.

Crypto Winners & Losers

We started the new week very much in the red. As of Monday morning (UTC), all top 10 coins per market capitalisation have posted price drops over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.7%, currently trading at $87,860. This is the smallest drop on the list,

Bitcoin (BTC)

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Ethereum (ETH) decreased by 1.5%, changing hands at $2,892.

The highest fall among the top 10 is Solana (SOL)’s 3.3% to the price of $122.

It’s followed by Dogecoin (DOGE)’s drop of 1.6%, now trading at $0.1213.

At the same time, Tron (TRX) fell the least: 0.4% to $0.2953.

Moreover, of the top 100 coins per market cap, 93 have seen their price drop today.

MYX Finance (MYX) fell the most. It’s down 14%, now trading at $5.86.

Monero (XMR) follows, with a decrease of 5.4%, currently standing at $466.

Of the green coins, River (RIVER) stands at the top, having jumped by 43% to the price of $84.7.

The next on the list is Algorand (ALGO), which saw an increase of 2.3% to $0.1189.

The rest are up 1.3% and less per coin.

Macro uncertainty triggered over $550 million in crypto liquidations as BTC and ETH came under pressure.

Meanwhile, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) moved into the final stage of consultations on a set of proposed crypto regulations. The FCA said it is seeking feedback on 10 proposed rules, describing this as the “final step” in the consultation process.

“These proposals continue our progress towards an open, sustainable and competitive crypto market that people can trust,” the regulator said.

BTC May See Belated Reaction

Gadi Chait, Investment Manager at Xapo Bank, commented that recent weakness in Bitcoin follows a brief recovery last week, “set against a backdrop of macroeconomic developments that have influenced risk assets broadly.”

A convergence of factors drives volatility across markets. These include heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing conflicts. Renewed focus on US strategic positioning toward Greenland and Donald Trump’s address at Davos “added to an already unsettled global environment.”

Regulatory uncertainty, especially in the US, and macroeconomic pressures add to this. “Central bank policy divergence, including expectations around further tightening by the Bank of Japan and the continued reduction of liquidity by the US Federal Reserve, continues to shape market behaviour.”

Chait says that, “amid this uncertainty, traditional commodities have rallied, while Bitcoin has underperformed. The reasons for this divergence are not yet clear, though such sequencing across asset classes is not without precedent.”

“It remains possible that Bitcoin’s response emerges later, particularly as volatility subsides. For long-term participants, however, short- to medium-term price fluctuations remain a familiar feature rather than a signal of impaired fundamentals,” Chait concluded.

Moreover, Petr Kozyakov, Co-Founder and CEO at Mercuryo, argued that as a speculative asset, BTC has come under sustained selling pressure, and altcoins have followed suit.

“While the fortunes of the digital asset space will always be viewed through a lens fixated on token prices, the bigger picture is one of continued stablecoin adoption and the steady development of payment infrastructure,” he says.

He continues: “The evolution of the digital token space is being driven by merger and acquisition activity, alongside the inherent efficiencies of blockchain-based technology and its ability to operate around the clock, at speed and at lower cost.”

“This reality is increasingly unavoidable for financial institutions still reliant on technology that dates back to the 1960s. Away from daily price movements, a quiet revolution is most definitely afoot,” Kozyakov concluded.

Levels & Events to Watch Next

At the time of writing on Monday morning, BTC was changing hands at $87,860. While the coin begun the day at the intraday high of $88,800, it relatively swiftly dropped to the low of $86,126. It has recovered somewhat since.

Over the past seven days, BTC decreased by 5.1%, trading in the $86,319–$93,252 range. It’s now 30% away from its all-time high of $126,080.

Failing to hold the current level risks additional pullbacks towards the $85,000 level, followed by $84,300 and $83,800.

At the same time, Ethereum was trading at $2,892. Earlier in the day, it traded at the intraday high level of $2,941. However, it then plunged to the intraday low of $2,787. It managed to shift course and move higher following this drop.

In a week, ETH fell 9.2%, moving between $2,801 and $3,222. Moreover, it decreased 41% from its ATH of $4,946.

Currently, the price risks a fall toward $2,670 and $2,520 in the near term.

Ethereum (ETH)

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Additionally, according to Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone, it is more likely that ETH will revisit the $2,000 level than push upwards and above $4,000.

ETH has been stuck in the $2,000–$4,000 range since 2023. However, it is leaning toward the lower end of this range.

Meanwhile, the crypto market sentiment exited the neutral zone a week ago, and it has continued falling lower within the fear zone since.

The crypto fear and greed index decreased further over the weekend, currently standing at 29, compared to 34 seen over the weekend.

Unsurprisingly, given the market conditions, the sentiment reflects the overall worry and caution. It is now possible that the metric will drop further.

ETFs Continue The Red Streak

The US BTC spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted another day of outflows on Friday, totalling $103.57 million. This is the fifth consecutive day of negative flows.

The total net inflow has pulled back yet again and now stands at $56.49 billion.

Of the twelve ETFs, two recorded outflows, and none saw inflows. BlackRock let go of $101.62 million, and Fidelity followed with $1.95 million in outflows.

Moreover, the US ETH ETFs posted outflows as well on 22 January, with $41.74 million – a similar level as the day earlier. With this fourth consecutive red day, the total net inflow now stands at $12.3 billion.

Of the nine funds, two ETH ETFs posted outflows, and two saw inflows. BlackRock recorded $44.49 million in outflows, followed by Grayscale’s $10.8 million.

At the same time, Grayscale Mini Trust took in 9.16 million, followed by Fidelity’s $4.4 million in inflows.

Meanwhile, Japan’s Financial Services Agency is reportedly planning to add cryptocurrencies to the list of assets eligible for spot ETF products.

Japan would likely approve its first set of spot crypto ETFs as early as 2028, ending the agency’s ban on spot crypto ETFs.

Quick FAQ

1. Did crypto move with stocks today?

The crypto market has seen yet another drop over the past day. Meanwhile, the US stock market closed the week with a mixed picture. That said, it also posted a second consecutive red week. By the closing time on Friday, 23 January, the S&P 500 was up 0.033%, the Nasdaq-100 increased by 0.34%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.58%. Due to high volatility, investors are shifting their money into safe-haven assets, particularly gold.

2. Is this drop sustainable?

For now, the drops may continue in the near- to mid-term, pushed by macroeconomic developments. Occasional smaller and brief jumps are expected, intersecting the current trend.

The post Why Is Crypto Down Today? – January 26, 2026 appeared first on Cryptonews.

January 2026 has delivered a blunt message to investors: the playbook has changed. Gold is trading above $5,000 an ounce for the first time. Bitcoin is stuck below $88,000 and cannot hold the $90,000 level it briefly reclaimed. This gap is not just a weird market moment. It looks like a reset in how capital behaves when geopolitics heats up, and policy direction gets messy.

The numbers underline the shift. Gold rose 64% in 2025 and is already up more than 17% in the first weeks of 2026. Bitcoin, meanwhile, sits roughly 11% below its December 2024 all-time high near $108,000. Over one weekend in late January, total crypto market cap dropped by about $56 billion to roughly $2.92 trillion. This is not random noise. It reflects two different investor instincts playing out in real time.

The Safe-Haven Rush: Why Gold Owns the Narrative Right Now

Gold’s run is not coming from one single driver. It is coming from several forces stacking on top of each other.

Central banks, especially in emerging markets, have been buying gold at a pace that looks more like crisis-era behavior than normal reserve management. ETF inflows have reinforced that demand. Retail and institutions are doing the same thing for the same reason: they want a hedge against currency risk, policy mistakes, and the kind of uncertainty that makes investors second-guess everything.

The geopolitical backdrop is not helping. Trade tensions have moved from headlines into concrete threats and real negotiation pressure. President Donald Trump’s administration has floated 100% tariffs on Canadian goods tied to China-related trade developments, plus potential 200% levies on French wines and champagne. That kind of language changes behavior fast because markets do not wait for policy to become law. They price the risk now.

Currency markets are reflecting the same mood. The Japanese yen strengthened to 153.89 per dollar, its strongest level since November 2025, as traders speculated about possible coordination between U.S. and Japanese authorities. Japan’s top currency diplomat kept timing vague, which tends to make uncertainty worse, not better. The euro pushed to a four-month high near $1.1898 as traders cut dollar exposure ahead of the Fed’s next signals and the possibility of new leadership chatter.

These moves matter because they signal something deeper than FX positioning. They suggest investors are questioning stability and coordination at the top of the global monetary system. When people get nervous about reserve currencies, they often reach for gold. Gold does not pay yield. It does not grow cash flow. It holds value because it still functions as a trust asset when confidence in other systems starts to wobble.

History helps frame the moment. In 2008, gold climbed from roughly $800 to about $1,900 by 2011 as central banks flooded the system with stimulus. In 2020, gold hit new highs above $2,000 during peak pandemic fear. This rally is bigger in both percentage terms and absolute levels, which suggests the market is pricing something more structural than a single shock.

Bitcoin’s Reality Check: Why “Digital Gold” Is Not Acting Like Gold

Bitcoin has spent years carrying the “digital gold” label. This month has exposed how fragile that comparison can be when stress hits.

Gold is absorbing defensive flows. Bitcoin is absorbing selling from people who bought higher and now want out. That difference matters because it changes how rallies behave. When gold rallies in a risk-off environment, it often pulls in more buyers. When Bitcoin rallies in the same environment, it often runs into sellers looking to exit.

Technically, Bitcoin has been trapped in a structure that has not offered easy upside. Price action has struggled around $87,619 after losing $90,000 during weekend trading. Support sits around $84,698 with resistance near $89,241. If support fails, downside pressure toward $84,000 becomes the obvious target. If resistance holds, $90,000 stays a psychological ceiling rather than a launchpad.

More important than the chart is the behavior underneath it. CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin holders selling at a loss for the first time since October 2023. That is a shift in tone. In strong bull phases, holders usually ride volatility because they expect higher prices ahead. When people start locking in losses, they are not thinking in bull-market terms. They are managing pain and uncertainty.

Glassnode analysis adds another problem: a heavy supply overhang above $100,000. Many holders are sitting in positions bought between current levels and six figures. When price approaches their entry zones, they sell to break even or limit damage. That creates a supply wall that is hard to clear without fresh demand and strong momentum.

This is not how Bitcoin behaved in 2020 to 2021. Back then, conviction and institutional narratives pushed price from $10,000 to $69,000 in about a year. Today’s structure feels more like rotation and digestion than acceleration. Futures volumes are compressed. Leverage is subdued. Traders are not leaning into upside the way they do when they truly believe the move is imminent.

Prediction markets reflect the change in psychology. Polymarket odds have shown more confidence in gold holding above $5,500 through mid-year than Bitcoin setting new highs over the same window. That is the opposite of the mood in late 2024 when crypto optimism ran hot after Bitcoin crossed $100,000.

The deeper takeaway is uncomfortable for some investors: Bitcoin is not acting like a safe haven right now. It is acting like a high-volatility asset that depends on liquidity, confidence, and risk appetite. That does not kill the long-term thesis, but it changes how investors should frame it in the short term.

Altcoins Under Stress: What Happens When Speculation Hits a Wall

Bitcoin’s weakness looks mild compared to what is happening in altcoins.

Kaia (KAIA) is a clean example. It fell nearly 20% in 24 hours to around $0.0762 after breaking support near $0.0797 and briefly dipping below $0.0721. It held above its 50-day EMA, which offers some technical comfort, but the drop shows how fast liquidity disappears when sentiment cracks.

Altcoins are built for leverage to mood. In bull phases, capital moves from Bitcoin into Ethereum, then into larger alts, then into smaller speculative tokens as investors chase bigger multiples. In corrections, the flow reverses and the weakest assets get hit first. That creates a brutal reality: altcoins can look unstoppable on the way up and untradeable on the way down.

Ethereum has not offered much shelter either. Ether traded near $2,867 in late January, down 2.6% while Bitcoin fell 1.3%. That underperformance signals that investors are not rotating into higher-beta crypto exposure. Thin spot volume and muted derivatives activity support the same conclusion.

The question now is whether this is a pause before another risk cycle or a deeper structural shift. Several factors argue for caution. U.S. regulation is moving, but it still has open questions around token classification and how securities law will apply. Japan may approve crypto ETFs by 2028, with firms like Nomura and SBI expected to launch products on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, but a two-year timeline does not help the next few months.

There is also a credibility problem. Reports of a U.S.-linked crypto theft scandal involving alleged misuse of access to seizure wallets have rattled confidence. ZachXBT has traced funds linked to thefts spanning 2024 and 2025. Incidents like this do not just hurt sentiment for a week. They raise uncomfortable questions about custody, oversight, and the real-world weak points in the ecosystem.

What Institutions Are Actually Doing Right Now

Retail narratives dominate crypto chatter, but institutional behavior usually tells the cleaner story.

Central banks are voting with their balance sheets, and they are choosing gold. Many of them are not willing, or not able, to justify holding an asset that can drop 15% in a week. Their gold buying creates a steady baseline bid that crypto does not have.

Hedge funds and family offices have also turned cautious. Leverage in crypto derivatives remains compressed compared to peak cycles. Open interest in Bitcoin futures exists, but it has not expanded in the way you would expect if large players were building a new bullish stance.

Corporate treasury adoption has not restarted in a meaningful way. During 2020 to 2021, it was easier to sell boards on Bitcoin exposure because liquidity was abundant and narratives were clean. Today, when gold is up 17% year-to-date and Bitcoin is chopping sideways, that boardroom pitch becomes harder.

Pension funds and sovereign wealth funds remain mostly on the sidelines. They move slowly and demand strong regulatory certainty. The U.S. may get there, but it is not there yet.

Right now, institutional money looks like it is waiting, not charging in. That is the simplest read, and it matters because those investors have the best access to research, infrastructure, and policy visibility.

The Fed Variable: Why This Week Can Move Everything

The late-January Federal Reserve meeting matters more than people want to admit. Not because the market expects a surprise rate hike or cut, but because guidance sets tone and liquidity expectations.

If the Fed signals confidence that inflation is easing and hints at future cuts, risk assets usually respond well. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, and they tend to weaken the dollar, which supports commodity pricing. Crypto would benefit too, mostly through improved liquidity and renewed risk appetite.

If the Fed stays hawkish and emphasizes inflation risk, the market hears “higher for longer.” That hurts speculation. It also pressures gold through higher real yields, though safe-haven demand can sometimes overpower yield dynamics when fear becomes the bigger driver.

Politics adds another layer. Trump has criticized Jerome Powell publicly, and any credible talk of leadership changes introduces a market question about central bank independence. If markets interpret leadership shifts as more accommodative and more political, both gold and Bitcoin could rally on the same narrative: long-term trust risk in fiat management.

FX moves leading into the meeting show the tension. Traders have been trimming dollar exposure. That positioning can unwind quickly after Fed messaging, which would ripple into correlated assets.

Geography Is Not Background Noise in 2026

Regional differences are starting to matter more.

Asia has been mixed. China’s Shanghai index rose slightly while Japanese equities fell on yen strength. That split reflects different policy priorities and economic conditions across the region.

Japan’s currency strength is a headwind for exporters, but the medium-term ETF discussion positions Japan as a potential regulated gateway for crypto exposure, even if the timeline stretches to 2028. Europe has its own stress points, including trade friction with the U.S. The euro’s strength helps imports but hurts export competitiveness. The ECB has moved more dovishly than the Fed, which further changes cross-border capital flows.

The U.S. still dominates crypto market structure, liquidity, and innovation, even with regulatory uncertainty. Any real legislative breakthrough will matter globally because U.S. clarity tends to set the tone for institutions everywhere.

Emerging markets sit at the center of the gold move. They feel currency risk hardest and often have the strongest incentive to seek alternatives. But in practice, gold is still simpler and more accessible than crypto for most investors in those regions, which helps explain why gold is absorbing flows first.

Portfolio Positioning: What Discipline Looks Like in Uncertain Markets

This environment punishes overconfidence.

Gold’s role is straightforward. It is doing what it has historically done in messy periods. A 5% to 10% allocation to physical gold or gold-backed ETFs can make sense for many investors with multi-year horizons. It should protect the portfolio without taking over the entire strategy.

Crypto needs a different label. It is closer to a venture-style exposure to technology adoption than a pure safe haven. That means sizing should be conservative. A 1% to 3% allocation can keep investors engaged in long-term upside without turning short-term volatility into a lifestyle risk.

This is also a moment where patience often beats activity. Large shifts based on short-term moves tend to destroy value. Rebalancing rules matter more than predictions. If gold has grown far beyond its target weight, trimming back to plan can be smarter than chasing the next headline.

Dollar-cost averaging can work for crypto investors who believe in long-term adoption but do not trust the next six weeks. Small, scheduled buys remove emotion and reduce timing risk.

Leverage is the trap. Borrowing to amplify crypto exposure remains one of the fastest ways to blow up in a market like this. Volatility compression often precedes violent expansion. Liquidations do not care about your thesis.

Scenarios for the Next Six Months

Several paths remain plausible through mid-2026.

One scenario is the most boring and arguably the most consistent with current structure: gold keeps rising on safe-haven demand while crypto chops sideways. Gold could press toward $5,500 as tensions and central bank buying persist. Bitcoin could range between $80,000 and $95,000, supported by long-term holders but capped by overhead supply and cautious institutions.

A second scenario requires alignment: easing geopolitical tension plus Fed rate cuts. That would likely rotate capital out of gold and back into risk, lifting crypto meaningfully. Bitcoin could reclaim $100,000 if market structure improves and leverage returns, while gold could pull back but remain elevated above $4,500.

A third scenario is the darker one: economic conditions deteriorate materially. Gold could push toward $6,000 while crypto faces forced liquidations and deeper downside, with Bitcoin potentially testing $70,000 or lower.

A fourth scenario depends on policy competence: a clear U.S. regulatory breakthrough that unlocks institutional capital at scale. It is possible, but the near-term probability remains lower than crypto bulls want.

The most realistic outcome may look like a mix: partial easing in some geopolitical zones, new flashpoints elsewhere, gradual Fed shifts, and crypto alternating between relief rallies and pullbacks without clean direction.

Risk Management Rules That Still Matter

When correlations move and narratives break, basics protect capital.

Position sizing is the first filter. Overallocating to a single theme is the most common failure. Crypto should be sized so that total loss would not change your life. Gold should be sized so it protects the portfolio without trapping you in defensive posture if equities rebound.

Diversification only works when it is real. Ten cryptocurrencies do not diversify if they all move with Bitcoin. Two forms of gold exposure can also behave differently: physical gold, gold ETFs, and miners each carry distinct risks.

Liquidity matters more than people admit. Assets that trade cleanly in calm markets can become thin in stress. Holding enough cash or liquid reserves to avoid forced selling remains a timeless rule.

Discipline is the edge. Volatility is designed to trigger bad decisions. Rules around rebalancing and allocation prevent emotional reactions. Writing down your principles during calm periods and following them during stress is not just advice. It is a practical survival tool.

Taxes also become more important as volatility increases. Crypto gains and losses can be managed strategically through loss harvesting, holding periods, and timing. Gold can have special tax treatment in some jurisdictions. Investors should not wing it.

What Past Divergences Tell Us

This is not the first time asset relationships have shifted.

In 2013’s taper tantrum, gold fell while risk assets also struggled. Safe-haven flow went into dollars, not gold. That episode shows safe haven behavior changes depending on what investors fear.

In 2018, Bitcoin collapsed while gold stayed rangebound, because macro fear was muted. That period shows gold does not automatically benefit from crypto weakness.

In 2020, both rallied after the initial crash because stimulus and inflation fears dominated. That environment is not today’s environment. Today looks more like geopolitical stress plus constrained liquidity, which tends to favor gold over speculative assets.

The lesson is simple: correlations are not laws. They are temporary relationships shaped by the dominant fear in the room.

The Ethereum Problem: Why Number Two Looks Stuck

Ethereum’s underperformance is not just a chart issue. It points to a broader question about smart contract platforms and real adoption.

DeFi activity is down from peak levels. NFT volumes have collapsed. Layer-2 scaling has reduced fees, which is good for users, but it has also fragmented liquidity and attention across multiple networks. That can weaken Ethereum’s network effects, even if the technology continues to improve.

Solana and other platforms have gained share, but they have also struggled during broad risk-off conditions. So this is not just an Ethereum-specific problem. It is a demand problem across crypto applications.

The bigger concern for Ethereum bulls is the application gap. Ethereum has proven it can work. What it has not proven is that it can deliver mainstream use cases that compete with web2 experiences at scale. Many on-chain apps still feel like tools for crypto-native users rather than products built for the public.

Without clear demand drivers, ETH valuation stays tied to speculative appetite. In a market where investors are reducing risk, that is not a great setup.

Regulation: The One Catalyst That Can Reprice Everything

Even with weak price action, regulation remains the biggest potential reset.

U.S. legislative progress is focusing on custody rules, stablecoin frameworks, and exchange registration. Real clarity on token classification would be the unlock. It would reduce existential risk for projects, give institutions rules they can follow, and lower the odds of surprise enforcement events that shake markets.

International coordination is improving too. FATF standards have pushed most major jurisdictions toward common baselines for exchanges and wallet providers. The EU’s MiCA rules bring structure across a large economic bloc. Some elements are heavy, but clear rules often matter more than perfect rules.

Japan’s ETF discussion suggests growing acceptance of crypto as an investment asset class, even if the pace is slow. China remains restrictive on trading, but it continues to pursue blockchain applications and central bank digital currency research.

Regulation will not fix market structure overnight, but it can change who is allowed to participate. That is how market regimes shift.

The CBDC Wildcard

Central bank digital currencies sit in a strange place. They validate the concept of digital money while competing with private crypto rails.

CBDCs are permissioned and controlled. They do not offer the decentralization or supply constraints that define Bitcoin. They can also enable deeper state-level visibility into transactions, which raises privacy concerns.

Still, their development signals something important: central banks agree that the future of money is digital. The question is whether CBDCs simply replicate existing payment rails, or whether they introduce programmable money that could replace some stablecoin and DeFi use cases.

If CBDCs expand surveillance and control, some users may move toward crypto as an opt-out alternative. If CBDCs remain limited and functional, they may coexist without materially disrupting crypto adoption.

The timeline remains unclear. Technical scaling, interoperability, and political pushback will shape how fast democracies move. Authoritarian systems may move quicker, but that experience may not translate cleanly to the U.S. or Europe.

Conclusion: Dealing With Markets That Do Not Follow Narratives

Early 2026 is forcing investors to separate slogans from reality.

Gold is behaving like gold. It is absorbing defensive flows during uncertainty. Bitcoin is behaving like a high-volatility asset that depends on liquidity and confidence. That does not destroy the long-term crypto thesis, but it does change how investors should frame it right now.

Investors should position for the market they have, not the market they want. Gold deserves a role as insurance. Crypto deserves a smaller, deliberate role as a high-upside, high-risk exposure to long-term adoption. Diversification, disciplined sizing, and patience remain the cleanest strategy in a regime where trends are not cooperating.

The next months will reveal whether crypto consolidates before a new growth phase or whether this marks a deeper shift in how capital treats digital assets during stress. Investors who stay disciplined and realistic will be fine either way. Investors who overextend on conviction or trade emotionally will likely learn the same lesson markets teach every cycle.

Markets humble confidence. This divergence is a reminder that assets do not owe anyone the behavior that narratives promised. The investors who accept that and manage risk accordingly will be in the best position for whatever 2026 delivers.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. Why is gold outperforming Bitcoin in early 2026?

Gold is benefiting from geopolitical tension, central bank buying, and currency uncertainty. Bitcoin is behaving like a risk asset, not a safe haven, and is facing selling pressure from recent buyers.

2. Is Bitcoin still considered “digital gold”?

In theory, yes. In practice, not right now. Bitcoin is trading more like a speculative asset that depends on liquidity and risk appetite rather than a defensive store of value.

3. Why did gold cross $5,000 per ounce?

Central banks accelerated gold purchases, investors sought safety amid trade and policy uncertainty, and currency volatility increased demand for non-fiat stores of value.

4. Why are altcoins falling more than Bitcoin?

Altcoins carry higher risk and lower liquidity. When markets turn risk-off, capital exits speculative tokens first, leading to sharper and faster declines.

5. Is Ethereum underperforming Bitcoin in 2026?

Yes. Ethereum has lagged Bitcoin due to weaker demand for DeFi and NFTs, fragmented liquidity from layer-2 solutions, and lack of strong new mainstream applications.

6. What role is the Federal Reserve playing in these markets?

Fed guidance affects liquidity, dollar strength, and risk appetite. Uncertainty around rates and potential leadership changes has increased volatility across gold, crypto, and currencies.

7. Are institutions buying crypto right now?

Most large institutions are cautious. Central banks are buying gold, while hedge funds, pensions, and corporates are largely waiting for clearer regulation and better risk-reward setups.

8. Is now a good time to invest in Bitcoin?

That depends on time horizon and risk tolerance. Short-term conditions favor caution, while long-term investors may prefer small, disciplined allocations using dollar-cost averaging.

9. How much gold or crypto should a portfolio hold in 2026?

Many investors consider 5–10% in gold for protection and 1–3% in crypto for upside exposure, sized according to personal risk tolerance and financial goals.

10. What could change the outlook for crypto in 2026?

Clear U.S. regulation, Fed rate cuts, easing geopolitical tensions, or renewed institutional adoption could improve sentiment. Until then, crypto is likely to remain volatile and range-bound.

Gold Shines But Bitcoin Faces the Music: What 2026 Has in Store for Investors? was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

In 2026, crypto airdrop scams are no longer amateur phishing attempts — they are professionally engineered traps powered by AI, fake audits, cloned wallets, and social engineering that even experienced traders fall for.

Every week, thousands of users lose wallets, NFTs, stablecoins, and long-term holdings — not because they were careless, but because airdrop scams now look legitimate.

This guide breaks down:

• Real airdrop scam examples
• How modern airdrop scams actually work
• Red flags most people still miss
• A practical crypto airdrop scam prevention checklist
• How to safely interact with real airdrops in 2026

If you’ve ever searched:

“Is this airdrop legit?”

“How do crypto airdrop scams work?”

“How to avoid fake airdrops?”

This article is your answer.

What Is a Crypto Airdrop Scam?

A crypto airdrop scam is a fraudulent campaign that promises free tokens in exchange for wallet interaction, approvals, or signatures — with the goal of draining funds, stealing NFTs, or compromising wallet security.

Unlike early phishing scams, modern airdrop scams often involve:

• Fake smart contracts
• Malicious token approvals
• Wallet-draining signatures
• Cloned websites and social profiles
• AI-generated “community” activity

Why Crypto Airdrop Scams Exploded in 2026

Crypto airdrop scams didn’t just increase — they evolved.

1. AI-Generated Legitimacy

Scammers now use AI to:

• Clone real project websites
• Generate realistic whitepapers
• Fake GitHub commits
• Simulate Discord & X engagement

Many scams now look more polished than real startups.

2. Multi-Chain Complexity

With Ethereum, Solana, Arbitrum, Base, Sui, Aptos, and Layer 3s, users regularly:

• Bridge assets
• Sign cross-chain approvals
• Interact with unfamiliar contracts

Scammers exploit this confusion.

3. Wallet Fatigue

After years of DeFi, NFTs, and memecoins, users are:

• Desensitized to signing messages
• Overconfident in wallet security
• Unaware of new approval-based exploits

Real Crypto Airdrop Scam Examples (2025–2026)

Example 1: The “Retroactive Reward” Scam

Victims received messages claiming they qualified for a retroactive airdrop due to past DeFi activity.

The trap:

• Website cloned from a real Layer 2
• Wallet connection required
• “Claim” button triggered unlimited token approval

Result: Wallet drained within seconds.

Key lesson: Retroactive airdrops never require urgent action.

Example 2: Fake Token Appears in Wallet

Users suddenly saw a new token in their wallet labeled:

“AIRDROP_ELIGIBLE”

Clicking the token’s website link led to a fake claim portal.

What happened:

• Approval signature granted access to all ERC-20 tokens
• NFTs transferred out instantly
• Wallet labeled “compromised” afterward

Key lesson: Never interact with unsolicited tokens.

Example 3: Discord Moderator Impersonation

Scammers impersonated admins in a real project’s Discord:

• Same name
• Same profile image
• AI-generated chat history

They shared a “private airdrop link” during high traffic events.

Key lesson: Admins never DM airdrop links.

Example 4: NFT Holder Airdrop Trap

NFT holders were targeted with exclusive airdrops:

• “Claim your holder reward”
• “Limited-time distribution”

The contract approval allowed:

• NFT transfer permissions
• ERC-20 draining

Key lesson: NFT approvals are just as dangerous as token approvals.

The Most Common Crypto Airdrop Scam Red Flags

Red Flag #1: Urgency or Countdown Timers

Legitimate airdrops don’t rush you.

“Claim within 24 hours or lose eligibility” is a scam signal

Red Flag #2: Wallet Approval Before Verification

If you must approve tokens before seeing eligibility — walk away.

Red Flag #3: Airdrop Links Shared in DMs

Real projects:

• Post on official blogs
• Use verified X accounts
• Pin announcements publicly

Scammers use private messages.

Red Flag #4: No Independent Mentions

Search the airdrop name:

• No GitHub?
• No Medium post?
• No reputable coverage?

That silence is your warning.

Red Flag #5: “Free” Tokens with No Tokenomics

If there’s:

• No supply details
• No vesting
• No utility explanation

It’s bait.

How Wallet Draining Airdrop Scams Actually Work

This is what most people don’t understand.

Step 1: Trust Setup

Scammer builds legitimacy using:

• Fake audits
• Paid influencers
• Bot-driven social proof

Step 2: Wallet Interaction

User connects wallet and signs:

• Token approval
• Permit signature
• Blind message

Step 3: Asset Extraction

Assets are:

• Transferred to multiple wallets
• Bridged instantly
• Mixed or swapped

Step 4: Cleanup

• Website disappears.
• Discord wiped.
• X account renamed.

Crypto Airdrop Scam Prevention Checklist

Before Connecting Your Wallet

• Verify project on multiple platforms
• Confirm contract address via official sources
• Search “[project name] airdrop scam”

Before Signing Anything

• Read approval details
• Avoid “unlimited” permissions
• Reject blind signatures

Wallet Hygiene Best Practices

• Use a burner wallet for airdrops
• Never use cold wallets for claims
• Revoke permissions regularly

After Any Interaction

• Monitor wallet activity
• Use approval trackers
• Move funds if anything feels off

Scammers rely on short memory and fast clicks. You rely on process.

Save this post so you can run this checklist every time a new airdrop appears in your wallet.

Best Tools to Detect Airdrop Scams in 2026

While no tool is perfect, these help:

• Wallet approval dashboards
• Contract scanners
• Browser wallet warnings

Important: Tools are supplements — not substitutes for skepticism.

Are Any Crypto Airdrops Still Legit?

Yes — but they share common traits.

Legit Airdrops Usually:

• Are announced publicly
• Don’t require urgency
• Don’t request unlimited approvals
• Are discussed openly by developers
• Have clear tokenomics

If an airdrop feels too generous, it probably is.

Why Even Experienced Traders Fall for Airdrop Scams

Because scammers exploit:

• FOMO
• Fatigue
• Overconfidence
• Familiar branding

Experience doesn’t eliminate risk — process does.

What To Do If You’ve Been Hit by an Airdrop Scam

1. Revoke approvals immediately
2. Move remaining assets
3. Mark wallet as compromised
4. Never reuse it
5. Warn others publicly

Staying Safe in an Era of Sophisticated Crypto Airdrop Scams

In 2026, crypto airdrop scams are one of the largest wealth transfer mechanisms in the industry — from users to criminals.

If you remember one thing, let it be this:

A real airdrop will never pressure you, rush you, or require blind trust.

Use the crypto airdrop scam prevention checklist, stay skeptical, and treat every “free token” as a potential threat.

Your wallet doesn’t need more tokens — it needs better defenses.

Crypto Airdrop Scams in 2026: Real Examples & Red Flags was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Variational: Why You Can’t Miss It

With decentralized exchanges (DEXs) taking more and more mindshare from centralized exchanges (CEXs) in trading and spot volumes, competition in this sector is rapidly intensifying. Inspired by the success of Hyperliquid, most of these platforms are running points programs. This is the case for Variational, one of the most promising trading protocols to farm right now.

What Is Variational ?

Unlike other perp DEXs like Hyperliquid or Extended that use an order book, Variational uses a Request for Quote (RFQ) model, notably used by large over-the-counter (OTC) venues. This system consists of takers (traders) requesting quotes and makers (market makers) responding with bids and/or offers.

In the case of Variational, the only market maker allowed is the Omni Liquidity Provider (OLP).

This model have various advantages :

• Zero Fees : Since all market making on Omni is done by OLP instead of external market makers, Omni doesn’t need fees to generate revenue.
• Complete control over revenues : A portion of the fees are directly red irected to users via various incentives.
• Listing Variety : All OLP requires for a new listing is a reliable price feed, a quoting strategy, and a hedging mechanism. This manifests as around 500 tradable tokens on Omni !

The team And Partners

Variational was co-founded by Lucas Schuermann and Edward Yu, they have great experience in trading, having work with Genesis after their hedge fund (Qu Capital) was bought by Digital Currency Group (DCG) in 2019.

They later left in 2021 to create their own proprietary trading firm after raising $10M. After two years, they decided to leverage their experience in trading and OTC exchanges to found the Variational protocol in 2023.

Other team members include many crypto veterans in algorithmic trading, with past experience at major firms such as Google and Goldman Sachs.

In June 2025, they raised an additional $1.5M in a strategic round.

Important Metrics

As mentioned in my previous article about perp DEXs, before farming a project I always analyze whether the opportunity cost is worth it. Let’s go through the key metrics one by one.

Trading Volume

It is important to note that at this time of year, volumes are down across nearly all perp DEXs.

Currently, the 24h trading volume is around $850M, placing Variational in the top 6 alongside major names such as Extended, Hyperliquid, and Lighter. Keep in mind that volume can be manipulated through wash trading, so it should not be used as a standalone indicator. For example, Aster ranks third, but farming its airdrop is not attractive.

Open Interest

Open interest represents the total value of active long and short contracts. It is a good indicator of project health, as it implies traders are holding positions for longer periods. Like any metric, it can be manipulated, so it should be evaluated alongside others.

Currently, open interest is around $1.26B, placing Variational in the top 6 perp DEXs. One week earlier, when I started writing this article before the Lighter TGE, it stood at $441M.

TVL

The current TVL is around $132M. While this may seem low compared to projects like Lighter or Extended, it is important to note that the OLP vault has not yet been opened.

For comparison, roughly half of the TVL on Lighter and Extended is stored in their vaults. Based on this, it would be reasonable to expect a TVL of around $260M for Variational once the vault opens. Depending on yield attractiveness, this could attract significant capital.

For a project still officially in private beta, this is already a strong TVL.

Roadmap

What users currently interact with is Omni, where retail traders can trade more than 480 tokens with a zero-fee model and up to 50x leverage on all pairs.

The team also plans to launch Variational Pro, designed for advanced and institutional traders of OTC derivatives. This dual-product approach allows Variational to target both retail traders (via Omni) and institutional entities (via Pro).

At the moment, the OLP vault is not open for public deposits. The team plans to launch it soon, allowing users to earn a share of Omni’s revenues. This is expected to be highly attractive, as Omni generates significant revenue due to the absence of external market makers.

On the trading side, the team plans to expand beyond crypto into other markets such as stocks, and to support additional collateral types beyond USDC, enabling broader cross-margin functionality.

There are many additional smaller features detailed in the documentation.

The Token ($VAR) and Points Program

There is limited information available about the token at this stage. The points season is expected to end no later than Q3 2026 and could conclude earlier depending on roadmap progress.

We know that approximately 50% of the token supply will be allocated to the community through multiple incentive mechanisms, rather than a single airdrop. Additionally, the team plans to buy back tokens using at least 30% of protocol revenues.

The points program launched three weeks ago, including a retroactive distribution of 3M points for users who traded before its launch. Going forward, 150,000 points will be distributed every Friday at 00:00 UTC, with snapshots taken every Thursday at 00:00 UTC.

Start now with the best boosted code you can have, allowing you to have a 15% points boost and silver rank :

https://omni.variational.io/?ref=OMNIPANDA

I don’t have an affiliate code, so I gave you the one I use, which is the best one to start earning those precious points on Variational. If you want to support my work, a simple like is enough.

For an estimate of point valuation, there is a strong analysis published by Points Goblin :

My Personal Opinion and Strategy

Following the Lighter TGE, there has been a rapid rotation toward newer perp DEXs such as Variational and Extended. This should not discourage farming these projects as long as the cost per point remains low.

I personally faded Lighter in June when its TVL reached around $170M, assuming it was too late. That assessment was incorrect, as TVL later exceeded $1B

Market conditions are currently pessimistic, with many participants sidelined. If hype returns, earning points will become significantly harder, while existing points are likely to increase in value.

This is why I am currently trading on Variational, mainly farming funding via the FundingView app.

Based on gathered information, points appear to be weighted more heavily toward :

• Holding positions for multiple days
• Trading low open-interest pairs
• Trading newly listed pairs

For additional insights, the following X accounts are worth following:

• Points Goblin
• Cllmax

Docs : https://docs.variational.io/

Discord : https://discord.gg/variational

Twitter (X) : https://x.com/variational_io

As always, thank you for reading !

Follow me on medium

Follow me on Twitter to get updates, alpha and much more !

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, you need to do your own research !

Variational : Why You Need To Farm It was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Crypto markets entered the new week on the back foot as a wave of macro uncertainty sparked heavy liquidations across major digital assets.

After trading in a tight range over the weekend, prices slid during early Asian hours, triggering more than $550 million in leveraged long liquidations, according to market data cited by QCP Asia.

Bitcoin briefly dipped to the $86,000 level before stabilizing, while Ethereum fell toward the $2,785 area.

The pullback stood in contrast to traditional safe havens, with gold and silver extending their recent rally as investors rotated into lower-risk assets.

Tariff Threats, Shutdown Fears, and FX Uncertainty Weigh on Markets

Market participants point to a cluster of macro developments driving the move, according to QCP.

Chief among them were comments from President Donald Trump on the possibility of imposing 100% tariffs on Canadian imports, renewed concern over a looming partial shutdown of the US government, and ongoing uncertainty around potential US-Japan coordination to arrest further weakness in the yen.

Currency markets remain a key pressure point. A “rate check” on USD/JPY by the New York Fed late last week signaled growing sensitivity to yen depreciation, with the 160 level widely viewed as a threshold that could prompt intervention.

While the pair has since pulled back, it continues to trade near two-month highs around 154, prompting investors to unwind short-yen positions rather than risk sudden policy action.

US domestic politics are adding another layer of tension. Although broader risk sentiment found some relief after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Ottawa has no plans to pursue a free trade deal with China, fiscal negotiations in Washington remain unresolved.

House Republicans have advanced spending bills that include roughly $64.4 billion for border security and the Department of Homeland Security, while Senate Democrats have indicated they will block the measures.

With current government funding set to expire on January 30, failure to reach an agreement would result in a partial shutdown.

Markets appear to be taking that risk seriously. Polymarket odds currently imply roughly a 75% chance of a shutdown by January 31, a dynamic that echoes last autumn’s fiscal standoff, which coincided with a sharp drawdown in crypto prices.

Bitcoin Options Signal Rising Downside Protection as Volatility Climbs

Derivatives markets are already reflecting a more cautious stance. Put skews and implied volatility have risen across maturities, with traders rolling downside protection in bitcoin options from the 88,000 level toward 85,000, according to QCP.

Alongside ongoing geopolitical and fiscal headlines, markets face a busy week that includes major technology earnings and a Federal Reserve policy decision.

While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, investors will be watching closely for any shift in Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance.

“With multiple macro risks unresolved, crypto prices are likely to chop around in the near term, pending greater clarity, particularly around the risk of a US government shutdown,” QCP said.

The post Macro Fears Trigger $550M Crypto Liquidations – What’s Really Going On? appeared first on Cryptonews.

Digital asset investment products saw sharp outflows last week with investors pulling $1.73 billion, the largest weekly decline since mid-November 2025, according to CoinShares report authored by head of research James Butterfill.

CoinShares notes that the wave of redemptions reflects persistent bearish sentiment, driven by fading expectations for interest rate cuts, negative price momentum and growing disappointment that digital assets have not yet benefited from the broader “debasement trade.”

Outflows were heavily concentrated in the United States, which accounted for nearly $1.8 billion, while sentiment was more mixed across Europe and Canada.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Lead Weekly Redemptions

Bitcoin products recorded outflows of $1.09 billion, the largest since mid-November 2025, showing that investor confidence has yet to recover following the October 2025 price crash.

Ethereum followed with $630 million in outflows while XRP investment products saw an additional $18.2 million exit the market — highlighting broad-based weakness across major assets.

Butterfill addes that minor inflows into short-Bitcoin products — totalling just $0.5 million — suggest bearish positioning remains limited, but overall sentiment has not meaningfully improved.

Solana was also a notable exception attracting $17.1 million in inflows and bucking the wider negative trend. Smaller altcoins such as Binance-linked products ($4.6 million) and Chainlink ($3.8 million) also posted modest gains.

Regional Flows Diverge Outside the US

While the US dominated the outflows, CoinShares reports that other regions saw investors take advantage of price weakness to add to long positions.

Switzerland recorded inflows of $32.5 million, Canada added $33.5 million, and Germany saw $19.1 million in inflows. Sweden and the Netherlands both posted smaller outflows of $11.1 million and $4.4 million respectively.

The divergence suggests that while US-based investors are reducing exposure some international allocators continue to view pullbacks as entry opportunities.

Long-Term Adoption Model Points to $317K Bitcoin Floor by 2029

Despite near-term bearishness in fund flows CoinShares Research maintains a bullish long-term outlook based on its updated adoption-based valuation model.

The framework models Bitcoin as a global savings asset competing with deposits, gold, real estate, and bonds. Using conservative assumptions — including sub-1% disposable income allocation and a reduced flow-to-market-cap multiple of 3.5x — CoinShares projects Bitcoin ownership could rise from roughly 560 million owners in 2025 to 1.16 billion by 2029.

Under this scenario Bitcoin’s valuation floor could reach approximately $317,000 by 2029 implying a potential 3.2x return from mid-November 2025 levels, notes the firm.

CoinShares stressed that the model is designed to estimate price-supporting bottoms rather than speculative cycle peaks with ETF growth and emerging-market adoption continuing to accelerate global participation.

The post Crypto Funds Shed $1.73B as Bearish Sentiment Deepens: CoinShares appeared first on Cryptonews.

How to hack Bitcoin? How does the blockchain calculate time? How does mining difficulty change? What happens if two miners mine a block simultaneously? Where are transactions stored before confirmation, how are fees calculated, and is it possible to send a transaction with zero fee? What types of nodes exist in the blockchain, and how do they differ? When can you use mining rewards?

Here I provide deeper answers to these questions because popular materials about Bitcoin either don’t explain these things at all or do so very superficially. To understand this article, you need a minimal understanding of how blockchain works, which you can get here: https://vas3k.com/blog/blockchain/

TL;DR

• How to hack Bitcoin?
  A quantum computer will only be able to derive a private key from a public key after a transaction has been sent. If no transaction has occurred, the wallet is protected.
  A 51% attack only provides the ability to cancel your own or others’ transactions to double-spend your own coins; gaining control over others’ coins is impossible.
• How does mining difficulty change?
  Difficulty is recalculated every ~2 weeks based on the mining time of the previous two weeks.
• What happens if two miners mine a block at the same time?
  The chain temporarily splits until one branch becomes longer. The longer branch becomes the main one.
• When can mining rewards be used?
  After 100 blocks.
• How does the blockchain calculate time?
  Based on the median time of the past 11 blocks and the system time of the nodes.
• Where are transactions stored before confirmation, how is the fee calculated, and can you send without one?
  They’re stored on nodes for no more than two weeks. A zero-fee transaction is theoretically possible but practically almost impossible to get confirmed.
• What nodes are in the blockchain and how do they differ?
  Full nodes — hold the blockchain data and enforce the rules.
  Miners — query full nodes for data and build new blocks.
  Light nodes — often used in wallets on weak devices; they query full nodes for what they need.

What’s the point of Bitcoin (besides speculation), in plain English

Bitcoin is an alternative financial system that does not require user trust. When using traditional banks, we must trust them not to steal or lose our money, and if that happens, we must trust the state to be able to return it. We also have to hope that money won’t be blocked at the whim of authorities or bank employees.

The point of Bitcoin is the opposite: everything is tied to strict mathematics that removes the probability of all these potential problems (or drastically reduces), provided you store Bitcoin in a personal non-custodial wallet.

Non-custodial wallet: A wallet controlled only by whoever has the private key; essentially just a small file/program that stores keys and signs transactions.

Custodial wallet: An account on an exchange that controls your assets and stores your funds in its own non-custodial wallets. This allows the exchange to block or seize your funds if you violate its rules or national laws, though the exchange offers more convenient and expanded functionality in return.

Interesting fact: A Bitcoin wallet is not an object inside the blockchain, but a program that stores keys and signs transactions.

The blockchain stores UTXOs (Unspent Transaction Outputs). Each UTXO is “locked” by a condition (program), usually tied to an address (practically, a hash of a public key).

To spend a UTXO, the wallet creates a transaction referencing that UTXO as an input and adds a signature. Network nodes verify the signature and the script’s execution. As a result, the old UTXO becomes spent, and the transaction creates new outputs — new UTXOs for the recipients.

A private key is a number. A public key can be calculated if you have the private key, but the reverse is practically impossible (how that’s attacked is discussed later in the “attacks” section). Using a private key, you can sign data, but this signature cannot be forged with a public key. Meanwhile, the public key can verify that the signature was produced by the corresponding private key.

In early versions, the wallet address was the public key. But later, addresses derived as a hash/encoding of the key or script began to be used. This is a crucial point for the section on quantum computer attacks.

Once a transaction is signed, it must be embedded in a block. First, it goes into a general pool of unconfirmed transactions (mempool), where any miner can take it to create a block.

But a transaction can exist only once in the blockchain, so the network can’t allow every miner to create their own block with the same set of transactions and have them all accepted.

Block Header

Each block has a header containing version data, the previous block’s hash, the merkle root (hash of all transactions in the current block), time, bits (mining difficulty), and a nonce.

Here’s an example (block 900K)
• version: 0x20aba000
• previous block hash: 0000000000000000000196400396be46d0816dc462df4c3450972f589f4d7d24
• merkle root: 0cfb54e522b07bd1a381adc774ec1851590ef4c3add83958135106534569f970
• time (unix): 1749188499 _(2025–06–06 06:41:39 UTC)_
• bits (nBits): 0x17023774
• nonce: 0x925fd07a

All of these fields are combined and then hashed via SHA-256.

SHA-256 is a hashing technology: take some data and turn it into a different set of numbers that you can’t convert back into the original data if you only know the hash. But you _can_ verify it, because for a fixed input X the result is always the same output Y. So knowing X gives you Y; knowing Y does not practically give you X back — even with a quantum computer.

You can try hashing any data here.
SHA-256 is also one of the core tools in the HTTPS connections we use every day, and it plays a key role in hundreds of internet protocols.

The nonce is needed to find out whose block to record. Miners change the nonce so the header’s hash is less than the target. In our example, the hash has 19 zeros.

Finding such a hash is hard. It takes roughly ~10 minutes of the entire Bitcoin network’s mining power. Blocks should appear roughly every 10 minutes — that’s how Satoshi Nakamoto designed it.

Why exactly this many zeros, and how does mining difficulty change?

It’s not actually about the zeros, but about the **target**. The target determines mining difficulty: the smaller the target, the higher the difficulty. A valid block header hash must be ≤ the target. Because small target numbers in hexadecimal start with zeros, hashes often appear with many leading zeros (e.g., ~19 or more). The smaller the target, the rarer it is for a random hash to land below it, so mining becomes harder.

Difficulty Calculation Hack: If the difficulty increases by 16 times, the required threshold becomes 16 times lower— often resulting in one additional leading hex-zero.

Difficulty adjustments (retarget) occur every 2016 blocks (roughly 2 weeks, 1 block ~10 minutes). The blockchain uses a simple formula:

Target_new= target_old*T_act/T_exp, 4Texp

Target_new = new target (new difficulty)
Target_old = old target
T_act = actual time it took to mine the last 2016 blocks
T_exp = expected time for 2016 blocks: 2016*600 seconds (10 min = 600 sec)
4T_exp= The change is limited: difficulty can’t shift more than 4× either way.

If, since the last difficulty retarget, the network’s total hash rate (the combined power of all miners) has increased over the past 2,016 blocks, then with near-certainty the average time to mine a block will decrease. That means the actual time to produce those 2,016 blocks T_act will be less than the expected time T_exp, so T_act/T_exp < 1. As a result, the new target Target_new will go down: and the lower the target, the higher the difficulty and the harder it is to mine.

But what to do if two different miners mine a block at the same time?

That happens,and there’s a safety mechanism for it.

In theory, they can make practically identical blocks if the same transactions in the same order fall into each block. But blocks still won’t be identical because the first transaction in every block is the coinbase (the miner reward), and it pays to the miner’s address — so two miners can’t have the exact same block because their addresses differ.

But it is possible that two miners almost simultaneously mine different blocks. If the delay between the creation of a block and its distribution among nodes is 2 seconds, then this means that after the creation of the first block, there is a two-second gap in which a second block can be created. The longer this time, the higher the probability, but with each year this time is reduced. The probability of creating three blocks is almost negligible, but the protection system is the same.

If two blocks are created, they are saved in nodes, and these two chains are passed further. Miners then choose which block to build on — usually the one they saw first. And when they find the next block for one of the chains, it is distributed further and the nodes agree with it, and the shorter version is forgotten. This is the rule of the longer chain. Even if 2, 3, or more blocks in a row are formed in two chains, sooner or later one branch outpaces the other.

Transactions have 3 probable paths:

1. Fall into the chain that wins, then they remain in the blockchain.
2. Fall into both chains, then only the version in the winning chain remains relevant.
3. Fall into the chain that loses, then they go again into the pools of unconfirmed transactions (more on this below).

A few numbers:

• Approx. probability of a fork given ~1s delay: 0.17%
• A second block on the same competing branch: 0.00028%
• Third: 4.6*10^⁻⁹
• Fourth: 7.7*10^⁻¹²

That’s why exchanges don’t credit your deposit after 1 confirmation. Typically they wait for 6 confirmations — ~1 hour on average (6 blocks × 10 minutes).

There is no limit to the length of the second/third chain because they disappear quickly. Not counting these two cases:

• Reorganization through 53 blocks due to a bug in the software (source).
• Another incident with reorganization through 24 blocks (source).

And there is also the possibility of an attack through a second chain, but about this at the very end.

From this follows the next question:

Since the miner receives a reward for mining a block, what happens when two blocks are mined?

Simple: a miner can spend the reward only after 100 blocks.

If you are a miner and mined block № 1000, you will be able to use the reward for this block only starting from block №1100. This looks like a time-lock transaction, but technically it is not one. I will write about the time-lock technology next time, this is already turning into too much text.

Miners add transactions to the blockchain, receiving a fee for this. And from this follow a few more questions:

Where and for how long are unconfirmed transactions stored, and can a transaction with a zero fee pass in theory?

The fee in Bitcoin depends not on the number of tokens sent in the transaction, but on the size of the transaction and the occupancy of the network at the given moment. After sending your transaction from a non-custodial wallet, it goes to the nearest node(s), these nodes decide based on several characteristics whether to accept your transaction or not:

1. Does it comply with the rules and did you not assign yourself non-existent tokens or something else?
2. Is the specified transaction fee sufficient?

If the answer to one of these questions is no, the node will not take the transaction and it will not fall into the blockchain, and your balance will not change. It turns out that a zero fee, in most cases, will not pass into the blockchain, although theoretically a miner can include such a transaction in a block, it is extremely unlikely.

How does a node assign a fee?

The node has a certain amount of memory where it stores such unconfirmed transactions after receiving them, but until the moment they are recorded in the blockchain.

By default, it is limited to 300 MiB of RAM memory and 336 hours of storage. However, if the blocksonly setting is enabled in Bitcoin-Core 25.0, the RAM memory will be reduced to 5 MiB; this is often done for validating the blockchain.

All these data can be changed when setting up the node, but this is often not done, as for most it would be a simple waste of extra resources.

And what will happen if you send a transaction with the minimum allowable fee?

If the node does not throw it out after adoption due to overflow, and if miners will not take this transaction due of small fee, it will be deleted after 336 hours = 2 weeks.

After the transaction is accepted, nodes distribute it to other nodes, and miners insert transactions with the highest fees into the block.

Considering the limits on transaction size of 400,000 weight units ≈ 100KB (but it could be more with SegWit, but those are already too small details). A maximum of 10 such large transactions can fit into 1 block, and ≈ 10,000 of the smallest. But on average it comes out to 2500 transactions per 1 block.

The fee itself is calculated by the formula: fee (sat) = vsize (vB) * feerate (sat/vB)

• fee = commission.
• vsize = transaction size.
• sat = satoshi, in one Bitcoin there are 100,000,000 satoshis.
• vB = Virtual Byte.

Your wallet can find out the minimum feerate from the nodes, but this is the lower boundary of whether the transaction will be distributed, not a guarantee of its confirmation. To estimate how much you need to pay now, wallets use mempool statistics and confirmation history.

An average transaction weighs 150vB; if at the given moment the average sat/vB = 2, then the transaction will cost 300 sat. And it will cost $0.27.

The highest sat/vB was in April 2024 during the halving and was from 1795 to 2751 sat/vB (source). On that day, an average transaction would have already cost from $160 to $245, depending on how quickly it needed to be processed.

The busier the network, the higher sat/vB. If you want your transaction to get confirmed faster, you set sat/vB above the current average.

Nodes define the fee as: fee = sum(inputs) — sum(outputs), then they look at the transaction size to check if it fits their internal policies.

Don’t forget about UTXO: if over time you received 10 separate incoming transactions, and now you want to send the entire balance in one transaction, the blockchain sees that as 10 inputs — meaning the transaction is larger and therefore more expensive.

To save on fees in the future, it is useful to sometimes do “consolidation” — sending yourself all small remnants in one transaction when the network is calm and sat/vB is minimal.

Returning to the first topic and the block header, the following question may arise:

How does the blockchain know that ~10 minutes passed, and that miners aren’t lying?

The blockchain receives information about the time from miners and nodes (nodes that store information but do not mine) in UTC format.

Miners write the time in the block header. Nodes have their own clocks and verify the median time received from other nodes.

Bitcoin is a closed system, so the blockchain cannot connect to ntp.org to check if the miners are writing the truth in the block header and the nodes or not.

How can the blockchain check if the nodes and especially the miners aren’t lying?

For this, there is MTP — Median Time Past.

Not the average, but precisely the median.

It is calculated from the last 11 blocks arranged in order. For example:

18, 2, 12000 (liar), 14, 6, 20, 10, 4, 16, 12, 8

If we take the average value, then we need to sum all these numbers and divide by 11, we get 1100. Because of the liar who put 12000, everything has changed a lot.

But if we take the median, then first we arrange them in order:

2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, 12000 (liar)

And we take the value from the middle, that is, 12. This is how MTP is calculated.

The time of a new block is always greater than the MTP; otherwise, the block will not be accepted by other miners/nodes and will not be inserted into the blockchain.

But if someone wants to go to the future, at what time gap should blocks be rejected?

In the past Bitcoin used NAT — Network Adjusted Time (time adjusted by the network), which compared median time from peers. Later NAT was removed as a consensus component.

Now nodes use their own system UTC time to check how far “into the future” a new block is. If a block’s timestamp is more than 2 hours ahead of a node’s local time, that node rejects it.

If some node’s time differs significantly from other nodes, then NAT warns about it — that’s basically the only remaining use.

Miners and other nodes, how do they differ and why are they needed?

There are 3 main types of nodes in Bitcoin: a full node with two variations (archival and pruned), a light node, and a miner.

The other nodes are superstructures on top of these three pillars of the blockchain.

• Full archival node: a server that has all the information about the blockchain for all time. Validates or rejects blocks in accordance with the rules of the blockchain.
• Full pruned node: also checks blocks but does not store all data, only the UTXO and part of the last blocks.
• Relay node: a superstructure on top of a full node, which is connected to other nodes with a large number of peers for fast distribution of information. Like torrent seeders.
• Light node: stores only block headers to check their hashes. For transactions, it ask information from full node. Great for phone wallets or weak devices where storing dozens/hundreds of GB is inconvenient.
• Miner: takes information from a full node or is one; based on this information, searches for a nonce to produce a valid block, then broadcasts it to the network.

If you need a non-custodial wallet on a PC, then perhaps a full pruned node for this would be the best option. You can choose the one you need here: bitcoin.org/en/choose-your-wallet?step=1

How to hack Bitcoin?

There are many possible attack vectors. If I described all of them, the article would be longer than it already is. But someday I will write. For now, let’s briefly look at two hack variants that are often talked about.

Quantum Computer VS Bitcoin

A quantum computer could derive a private key from a public key — but there’s already partial protection. If you’ve never spent from your address, your wallet is protected because outsiders see only the hash of your public key, not the public key itself.

Even with a quantum computer, it is practically impossible to brute-force the hash of a public key. But after the first outgoing transaction, the public key becomes visible to everyone. Therefore, to protect against quantum attacks, you should use addresses once.

However, there’s still a possible “interception” scenario: if a quantum computer could, after you broadcast a transaction but before it’s confirmed, derive your private key from your revealed public key — it would have very little time, but that’s the idea.

But there are wallets (outputs) of old formats, where the public key is visible immediately, and such wallets can be hacked even if there was not a single transaction from them.

And there are also many “lost” wallets; transactions were made from some, but that was many years ago. And with the help of quantum computers, coins from these wallets will probably fall back into circulation and possibly crash the Bitcoin price. But let’s leave these speculations to analysts who were perfectly described by one satirical channel:

”Last week’s target for Bitcoin at 34 thousand dollars has been revised and now stands at 240 thousand.”

So, a quantum computer will not destroy Bitcoin in this way.

But they are already thinking about creating a reusable quantum-protected wallet. This will require a soft-fork (change of rules), which has been done more than once.

A couple of texts on this topic: BIP 0347 and BIP 360.

51% Attack

If 1 person has more than 51% of the mining power, it will be easy for him to create a second chain of blocks as he wants. In this case, he will be able to cancel transactions and rewrite the history of his spending.

But even in this case, he will not be able in any way to steal someone else’s coins that were never on his wallet. The older the transactions that need to be rewritten, the longer and harder it will be, and there is no 100% guarantee that it will work and he will be able to make his chain longer and faster than the other 49%.

Such an attack is possible even with 30% and 40%, but the probability is much lower.

How much money will be needed for such an attack?
If we attack from scratch, then we essentially have to have a power 0.5% more than the entire power of Bitcoin miners. The hashrate today is approximately 1 ZH/s = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 SHA-256 hash findings per second.

Modern ASICs (mining devices) have a power of approximately 200 TH/s, meaning 5,000,000 of them will be needed. Their efficiency is ≈ 17–20 J/TH. Multiply by 10⁹ and you get 17–20 GW. A bit less than the power of the largest hydroelectric dam in the world.

To this, we add the prices for the ASICs themselves, which comes out to ≈ $7.5 billion. Not counting extra infrastructure which will also be very expensive.

Even all these costs will lead at most to double spending of own coins in the blockchain and censorship of transactions. And even then, it will be visible to everyone and the price will probably crash and the game will not be worth the candle.

If you are interested in diving deeper into WEB 3.0 technologies, subscribe to my X (x.com/Paolo3Web) where there will be more content, far from always so long, but no less interesting.

Deep Dive into Bitcoin: Answers to the Questions You Rarely Ask was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Ethereum is more likely to revisit the $2,000 level than stage a decisive move back above $4,000, according to Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone.

In a recent post on X, McGlone pointed to persistent range-bound trading and rising macro risks weighing on the asset.

He said Ether has remained trapped in a $2,000–$4,000 range since 2023, but momentum appears to be shifting toward the lower end.

Rising Market Volatility Could Keep Ethereum Below $2,000

McGlone argued that the risks of Ethereum staying below $2,000 are greater than the chances of a sustained breakout above $4,000, especially if volatility in global equity markets rebounds.

His accompanying chart highlights repeated failures near the upper boundary of the range, alongside multiple tests of support closer to $2,000.

McGlone’s view contrasts with a more optimistic narrative circulating among crypto-focused analysts.

BullifyX, a widely followed market commentator, recently compared Ethereum’s long-term price structure to that of gold.

According to BullifyX, Ethereum is undergoing an extended accumulation phase characterized by gradual higher lows and compressed price action, a pattern that historically preceded strong rallies in traditional safe-haven assets.

The analyst described Ethereum’s current behavior as a period of quiet positioning rather than fading demand, suggesting that prolonged consolidation could ultimately lay the groundwork for a sharp upside move once conditions shift.

Meanwhile, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has framed 2026 as more than a technical milestone.

In a recent post, he said the community is entering a phase focused on restoring personal autonomy and improving user experience, arguing that earlier compromises made in pursuit of adoption no longer need to define the network’s future.

“2026 is the year that we take back lost ground in terms of self-sovereignty and trustlessness,” Buterin said in an X post.

Together, record activity, falling fees, and rising participation suggest Ethereum is entering a new phase, one where scale no longer comes at the expense of accessibility.

Ethereum Foundation Makes Quantum-Resistant Security a Strategic Priority

As reported, the Ethereum Foundation has elevated post-quantum security to a core strategic focus, forming a dedicated Post Quantum team and committing $2 million to the effort.

Announced by Ethereum researcher Justin Drake, the initiative will be led by Thomas Coratger alongside Emile, a contributor to leanVM.

Drake said the foundation has been working on quantum-resilience research quietly for years, dating back to early discussions in 2019, before formally making it a top-level priority.

The foundation’s plan spans research, development, and ecosystem coordination.

This includes new developer calls focused on user-facing security, two $1 million cryptography prize programs, active multi-client post-quantum testing networks, and a series of global workshops aimed at accelerating collaboration and readiness across the Ethereum ecosystem.

The post ETH More Likely to Hit $2,000 Than Reclaim $4,000: Analyst appeared first on Cryptonews.

Crypto traders often assume that meaningful gains need long timelines to take place, and they often give up during the wait and silence. However, crypto has a habit of shattering that belief without warning. History shows that when conditions line up, altcoins do not grind higher over years. They release and erase multiple years of drawdowns in a matter of weeks. 

That memory was highlighted by a crypto commentator known as Waterman on the social media platform X, who noted a familiar seasonal window between February and late April to early May for an altcoin explosion.

Speed Matters More Than Time

The most notable example of an altcoin rally season was in 2021, when the entire altcoin market went on a rally to new all-time highs, many of which are still unbroken for some cryptocurrencies. 

The 2021 cycle delivered some of the clearest reminders of just how fast capital can rotate once momentum takes hold. Solana moved from roughly $20 to $200 in about 50 days, a clean tenfold run. Although Solana has since broken above this peak to register a new all-time high of $293 in January 2025, this was still Solana’s most explosive rally to date.

Dogecoin followed an even sharper trajectory, climbing from $0.07 to a peak of $0.73 in under a month due to speculative interest that flowed into other memecoins like Shiba Inu. Unlike Solana, Dogecoin is yet to reclaim or surpass this peak price.

Avalanche went further, rallying from around $3 to $60 in less than 40 days, a twentyfold expansion that unfolded faster than most long-term projections ever anticipate. None of these moves required years of development or prolonged accumulation.

A Timeframe To Watch Closely

Notably, February through late April or early May has more often than not been the period where altcoin performance increases the most. If that pattern repeats, the coming weeks may matter far more than the years that came before them.

At the time of writing, the notion of an altcoin season is still impeded by strong Bitcoin dominance. Much of that comes down to how the entire crypto industry ecosystem has changed massively since 2021, especially after the launch of crypto-based ETFs. That steady demand has kept capital inflows concentrated around Bitcoin and slowed the usual rotation into altcoins.

Meme coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu have struggled to keep up in terms of price action, even with the launch of Dogecoin ETFs. Although the ETF has boosted visibility, it has not yet resulted into sustained upside.

At the same time, investors have become more selective, favoring cryptocurrencies tied to clearer utility. As a result, many crypto communities have been working to create utility for their meme coins.

Nonetheless, as noted by Waterman, you only need about four to six weeks for an altcoin to wipe out three to four years of suffering. You don’t need one to two years for altcoins to make massive gains.

Featured image from YouHodler, chart from TradingView

Technical analysis of XRP’s price action on the 3-week candlestick timeframe chart shows that the cryptocurrency is about to play out a road to the double-digit threshold based on its long-term structure. 

The analysis, which was shared on the social media platform X alongside a multiyear chart, points to XRP trading in what is labeled Phase 4. At the center of this setup is a clear technical target of a break above the previous all-time high and a run to at least $21.5

XRP Price Action In Phases

Technical analysis of XRP price action shows that the cryptocurrency has been trading in a series of four phases for more than a decade. One full sequence of four phases unfolded between mid-2013 and mid-2017 as the foundation for XRP’s first rally to price peaks. Since then, a second set of four phases has been developing and following a similar pattern. 

XRP transitioned into a new phase 1 and phase 2 sequence that led to a 2018 peak for phase 1 and then a pullback for phase 2 between 2018 and 2020. This was followed by an unusually long p3 that stretched from 2019 to mid-2024, visible on the chart as a broad, multi-year consolidation with converging trendlines of lower highs and higher lows. During this time, XRP’s price action was trapped inside the compression structure, just like the behavior seen during phase 3 of the first cycle.

XRP Price Chart. Source: @amonyx On X

Phase 4 Returns: XRP To Double Digits

According to the technical analysis, phase 4 began in 2025, when XRP finally broke above the compression range in mid-2024. This breakout was the same structural transition seen in mid-2017, when XRP exited consolidation and entered expansion. 

Phase 4 has already been in progress for several months and includes the period when XRP rallied to new all-time highs in mid-2025, eventually topping out at $3.65 in July. Since that peak, however, XRP’s price action has been playing out a corrective downward trend and is down by roughly 48% at the time of writing. 

Despite the ongoing correction, the projection is that XRP is still in phase 4 and is going to break into new all-time highs soon. This shows that phase 4 could unfold over an extended period and not with a single impulse move. The current all-time high of $3.65 is the first major technical hurdle, and a break above it will serve as confirmation that XRP is back into price discovery.

Based on this technical analysis, past expansion ratios from the previous cycle are applied and a 6.618 Fibonacci extension is measured from the phase 3 support low. This points to a projected price level near $21.5. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.89, meaning a move to that level would represent an increase of roughly 1,040% from current prices.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

XRP is trading near $1.89–$1.91 as January draws to a close, holding a well-defined triple-bottom support around $1.88 after slipping below the $2.00 mark earlier this week. The pullback has coincided with ETF outflows and a sharp drop in trading volume, but price action suggests stabilization rather than renewed selling pressure.

With volatility compressing and buyers repeatedly defending the same demand zone, XRP is approaching a technical decision point that could define its next directional move.

ETF Outflows Ease Short-Term Momentum Without Breaking the Thesis

Short-term pressure has been driven largely by institutional flows. According to data reported by CryptoQuant, U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded their first weekly net outflows, totaling approximately $40.6 million toward the end of January. Trading volume has also declined sharply, with some estimates showing a 50%+ drop in 24-hour activity, signaling trader hesitation rather than aggressive selling.

That said, the flow data points to rotation and profit-taking, not abandonment. XRP remains one of the few large-cap tokens with clear regulatory positioning in the US, and earlier ETF inflows north of $1 billion underscore that institutional interest hasn’t disappeared. The current reset appears more about leverage clearing than confidence breaking.

Core Adoption Trends Remain Unchanged Despite Price Weakness

Fundamentally, Ripple’s long-term thesis remains unchanged. XRP continues to underpin on-demand liquidity (ODL) across Ripple’s global payments network, offering faster and cheaper settlement compared to legacy systems.

More than 300 financial institutions remain connected to RippleNet, and ongoing regulatory clarity following 2025 rulings continues to distinguish XRP from many peers.

While no major partnership headlines have emerged this week, the absence of negative ecosystem news reinforces the view that the current weakness is market-driven, not fundamental.

XRP Price Prediction: Volatility Shrinks at $1.90 – Breakout or Breakdown Ahead?

From a technical perspective, XRP price prediction remains cautiously neutral near term. On the 2-hour chart, price is stabilizing inside a descending channel, capped by a falling trendline near $1.95. XRP is trading below the 50-EMA and 100-EMA, while the 200-EMA near $1.99 continues to act as firm resistance.

Support is clearly defined between $1.88 and $1.85, where repeated long lower wicks suggest responsive buying. RSI has recovered into the mid-40s after oversold readings, indicating easing downside pressure. Volatility has contracted, forming a descending wedge, a structure that often resolves higher if support holds.

A successful break above $1.95 would expose $2.03–$2.06, signaling structural repair. Conversely, a decisive loss of $1.85 would open downside toward $1.80 and $1.77.

XRP Trade setup: Accumulate near $1.88–$1.85, target $2.03–$2.06, invalidation below $1.80.

Bitcoin Hyper: The Next Evolution of BTC on Solana?

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is bringing a new phase to the BTC ecosystem. While BTC remains the gold standard for security, Bitcoin Hyper adds what it always lacked: Solana-level speed. The result: lightning-fast, low-cost smart contracts, decentralized apps, and even meme coin creation, all secured by Bitcoin.

Audited by Consult, the project emphasizes trust and scalability as adoption builds. And momentum is already strong. The presale has surpassed $30.9 million, with tokens priced at just $0.013635 before the next increase.

As Bitcoin activity climbs and demand for efficient BTC-based apps rises, Bitcoin Hyper stands out as the bridge uniting two of crypto’s biggest ecosystems. If Bitcoin built the foundation, Bitcoin Hyper could make it fast, flexible, and fun again.

The post XRP Price Prediction: $1.88 Triple-Bottom Support as ETF Money Pulls Back – What’s Next? appeared first on Cryptonews.

Ethereum is trading in the $2,930–$2,950 range as of January 25, 2026, consolidating after a broader pullback from January highs above $3,400. The move lower reflects near-term macro caution and heavy ETF-related selling rather than a breakdown in network fundamentals.

With Bitcoin hovering near $89,000 and risk sentiment mixed, ETH has shifted into a range-bound phase where price is lagging underlying activity.

ETF Pressure Weighs on Price, Not Structure

Short-term pressure has largely come from spot ETH ETF outflows, which exceeded $600 million between January 20–23, led in part by a single-day $250 million exit from BlackRock’s ETHA. This selling has cooled momentum and kept ETH capped below the $3,000 handle.

However, the flow data points more toward rotation and profit-taking than institutional abandonment. On-chain tracking shows whales accumulating roughly $1 billion worth of ETH during the recent correction, while funding rates and open interest have reset from crowded long conditions. That combination suggests leverage is being flushed, not confidence.

On-Chain Activity Tells a Different Story

Beneath the price, Ethereum’s network activity remains strong. Daily active addresses have climbed toward 1.3 million, while transaction counts are holding between 1.9 million and 2.2 million per day.

Validator behavior reinforces this trend: exit queues are near zero, entry queues are rebuilding, and staking participation continues to rise, tightening circulating supply.

Low fees and improved efficiency post-upgrades are also driving sustained DeFi and app usage, reinforcing a “price weak, fundamentals firm” dynamic that has historically preceded larger trend moves.

Ethereum Rises Despite U.S.-Iran Tensions

On the geopolitical front, the tensions are rising between the U.S. and Iran as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warns it is “more ready than ever” amid U.S. warships moving toward the Middle East. The warning comes after Iran’s recent crackdown on protests, which left thousands dead, and Trump has set strict red lines for military action, including preventing mass executions and violence against civilians.

Despite these geopolitical tensions, Ethereum (ETH) continues to rise. This shows that investors remain confident in Ethereum’s growth, likely supported by strong developments like the Ethereum Foundation prioritizing post-quantum security.

Ethereum Price Prediction: Compression Builds Near $2,950 as ETH Eyes Its Next Leg

Technically, Ethereum price prediction is bearish as ETH is holding above $2,850–$2,900, a key support zone aligned with prior demand and Fibonacci confluence. RSI remains subdued near 35–40, signaling caution but not capitulation.

A reset toward support followed by a reclaim of $3,060 would reopen upside toward $3,190–$3,400, while a clean break below $2,800 would risk a deeper retracement toward $2,700.

Looking ahead, Ethereum’s 2026 roadmap adds weight to the longer-term case. The upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade and later Hegota phase focus on scalability, efficiency, and sustainability, building on blob infrastructure progress and accelerating Layer-2 adoption.

With over 8.7 million new contracts deployed entering the year, analysts increasingly view 2026 as a potential breakout period if macro conditions stabilize.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) Trade setup: Accumulate near $2,850–$2,900, target $3,190–$3,400, invalidation below $2,700.

Bitcoin Hyper: The Next Evolution of BTC on Solana?

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is bringing a new phase to the BTC ecosystem. While BTC remains the gold standard for security, Bitcoin Hyper adds what it always lacked: Solana-level speed. The result: lightning-fast, low-cost smart contracts, decentralized apps, and even meme coin creation, all secured by Bitcoin.

Audited by Consult, the project emphasizes trust and scalability as adoption builds. And momentum is already strong. The presale has surpassed $30.9 million, with tokens priced at just $0.013635 before the next increase.

As Bitcoin activity climbs and demand for efficient BTC-based apps rises, Bitcoin Hyper stands out as the bridge uniting two of crypto’s biggest ecosystems. If Bitcoin built the foundation, Bitcoin Hyper could make it fast, flexible, and fun again.

The post Ethereum Price Prediction: $3,000 Rejected, But On-Chain Data Tells Another Story appeared first on Cryptonews.

Bitcoin is trading near $88,700 as markets weigh a pullback from $97K against rising regulatory clarity in the US, internal network debates, and shifting technical momentum. Senate crypto reforms, growing BIP-110 adoption, and rumors around GameStop’s BTC transfer have added noise, but price action suggests consolidation, not collapse. The $88K zone now stands as the key pivot for Bitcoin’s next directional move.

Bitcoin Governance Debate Resurfaces as BIP-110 Node Adoption Expands

Bitcoin’s long-running governance debate has resurfaced as adoption of Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 110 (BIP-110) edges higher. Roughly 2.38% of Bitcoin nodes are now running BIP-110, a temporary soft fork designed to limit non-monetary data, or “spam,” embedded in transactions.

The proposal restores restrictions on OP_RETURN data and output sizes that were loosened in recent Bitcoin Core updates.

The issue has divided the community. Critics argue that allowing excessive arbitrary data risks turning Bitcoin into a data-storage network, raising node costs and pushing out smaller, home-run operators, which could increase centralization. Supporters counter that usage should not be artificially limited and that existing spam filters are ineffective.

While the debate may create short-term noise, it has little direct price impact. Over time, efforts like BIP-110 reinforce Bitcoin’s decentralization, strengthening its credibility as resilient, trust-minimized money.

GameStop Moves 4,700 BTC to Coinbase Prime, Raising Sale Speculation

GameStop has moved its entire Bitcoin holding, roughly 4,710 BTC worth over $420 million, to Coinbase Prime, sparking speculation that a sale may be imminent. According to CryptoQuant, the company acquired its Bitcoin at an average price near $107,900, meaning a full exit at current levels around $90,800 would imply an unrealized loss of roughly $76 million.

Large transfers to institutional trading platforms often precede selling, but the move alone does not confirm liquidation. GameStop has not issued any public statement, leaving markets to interpret the intent.

The broader impact on Bitcoin appears limited. More than 190 publicly listed companies now hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, underscoring continued institutional participation.

Even if GameStop were to exit, it would represent an isolated corporate decision rather than a shift in overall institutional confidence. Short-term volatility is possible, but longer-term demand remains intact.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Tests $88K Support as Breakout Pressure Builds

Bitcoin price prediction remains bearish as BTC is trading near $88,600, entering a corrective phase after failing to hold the $97,300 swing high earlier this month. On the 4-hour chart, price has slipped back into a rising channel that guided the move from the $83,800 low.

The rejection at channel resistance marked a momentum shift, reinforced by long upper wicks and a bearish engulfing candle that broke short-term support.

BTC is now testing a key confluence zone between $88,000 and $87,300, which aligns with prior demand and the lower boundary of the ascending channel. Recent candles show smaller bodies with lower wicks, suggesting selling pressure is easing rather than accelerating. However, price remains below the 50-EMA and 100-EMA, while the 200-EMA near $91,200 continues to cap rebounds, keeping near-term bias cautious.

RSI has rebounded from oversold levels near 30 and is stabilizing around 40–42, signaling balance but not strength. The structure resembles a descending flag within a broader uptrend. If $87,300 holds, a reclaim of $90,000 could open $92,400–$94,500. A clean break below risks $85,600.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Trade Setup: Buy $87,500–$88,000, target $94,000, stop below $85,500.

Bitcoin Hyper: The Next Evolution of BTC on Solana?

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is bringing a new phase to the BTC ecosystem. While BTC remains the gold standard for security, Bitcoin Hyper adds what it always lacked: Solana-level speed. The result: lightning-fast, low-cost smart contracts, decentralized apps, and even meme coin creation, all secured by Bitcoin.

Audited by Consult, the project emphasizes trust and scalability as adoption builds. And momentum is already strong. The presale has surpassed $30.9 million, with tokens priced at just $0.013635 before the next increase.

As Bitcoin activity climbs and demand for efficient BTC-based apps rises, Bitcoin Hyper stands out as the bridge uniting two of crypto’s biggest ecosystems. If Bitcoin built the foundation, Bitcoin Hyper could make it fast, flexible, and fun again.

The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC at $88K as BIP-110 Adoption and GameStop Fuel a Make-or-Break Zone appeared first on Cryptonews.

A growing number of analysts believe Ethereum’s current price action is being misunderstood. Although frustration is growing due to Ethereum’s inability to hold above $3,000, some technical analysts are quick to point out that the structure forming beneath the surface tells a very different story. According to one analyst, the real risk right now is not being bullish on Ethereum and trying to short in anticipation of a downside breakout.

Higher Lows And A Structure That Keeps Tightening

The analyst’s technical view on Ethereum is focused less on short-term momentum and more on the structure developing on the chart, which he argues is even clearer than what is currently visible on Bitcoin’s chart.

Notably, Ethereum’s price action is carving out a series of higher lows on the daily candlestick timeframe chart to form a tightening triangular pattern since December 2025. This kind of behavior shows that each pullback is being absorbed at progressively higher levels, which is how strong trends reset before continuation.

Ethereum needs to avoid a breakdown below key support zones in order for this trend continuation setup to still be valid. According to the analyst, a dip under $2,860 would begin to weaken the pattern, while a close below $2,780 would invalidate the higher-low structure. 

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $2,950, which is dangerously close to the lower boundary of this setup. Therefore, some traders will be tempted to short Ethereum at this level, but the analyst called it the dumbest thing to do here.

As long as those levels ($2,860 and $2,780) hold, the analyst sees no technical justification for betting against ETH, especially near the lower boundary of the channel where buyers have repeatedly stepped in. 

If support holds, the next move would be a gradual return to the upper trendline of the channel, which is just below $3,340. A move into that region would bring price back into direct contact with overhead resistance and set the stage for a breakout if buying pressure continues to increase.

Ethereum Price Chart. Source: @Tryrexcrypto on X

The Bigger Picture Behind Ethereum’s Price Action

Ethereum is entering 2026 without clear bullish momentum, a reality that has dampened sentiment across the spot and derivatives markets. Spot ETF inflows into Ethereum and Bitcoin have slowed down, and issuers have been highlighted with consistent days of outflows.

Nonetheless, major asset managers are still holding huge amounts of Ethereum and are working on diversifying their activities on Ethereum. BlackRock, for example, filed with the SEC in December to launch a staked Ethereum exchange-traded fund, a move that will bring in more institutional investors into the Ethereum ecosystem.

Speaking of staking, BitMine Technologies recently amped up its ETH staking to over $5.71 billion worth of Ethereum. On-chain data from Arkham Intelligence shows that the firm has staked an additional 171,264, worth $503.2 million, pushing its total stake to over 1.94 million ETH.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

XRP has spent most of the past few months trading with lower highs since July 2025, frustrating traders and compressing price action into an increasingly tight range. 

However, a technical breakdown shared by crypto analyst ChartNerd argued that what looks like stagnation may actually be the final preparation phase before a historic move. The price structure suggests something far bigger that sends XRP on its most aggressive rally in eight years, but the implications only become clear when the full setup is examined.

A 400-Day Rectangular Reaccumulation Still Holding Structure

According to technical analysis done by ChartNerd, XRP’s price action has been locked inside a rectangular reaccumulation zone for about 400 days, and this has led to the formation of what looks like a rectangular bull flag on a macro timeframe. The technical chart shows a strong impulsive move from July 2024 to December 2024 acting as the flagpole, right when XRP peaked at the $3.4 price zone back then.

This impulsive flagpole has been followed by a long period of sideways trading where XRP’s price has repeatedly respected a clearly defined support around $1.8 and resistance boundaries around $3.6. This type of structure is associated with reaccumulation within the support and resistance zones, especially when it is playing out after a sharp expansion move and holding for this length of time.

Each dip into reaccumulation support has been absorbed, preventing any sustained breakdown and keeping the broader pattern intact. ChartNerd noted that the rectangular flag will be valid as long as this support level is defended, and this will activate the expansion journey.

XRP Price Chart. Source: @ChartNerdTA on X

Macro Breakout Projection Puts XRP Price Target At $23

According to ChartNerd, bearish participants are increasingly pressured by the fact that this fractal is still holding despite repeated attempts to invalidate it. The longer XRP’s price action is trapped inside the rectangle without breaking down, the more likely it becomes that the eventual resolution favors the dominant trend that preceded the consolidation. In this case, that trend was bullish, which strengthens the case for an upside breakout once resistance is cleared.

If the rectangular bull flag resolves to the upside as projected, the chart outlines a breakout trajectory that would carry XRP into double-digit territory, with a long-term target region near $23. This price target projection is derived from the height of the flagpole extended from the top of the reaccumulation range.

ChartNerd labelled this possible move as one of the most aggressive rallies XRP could see in seven to eight years. At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $1.92, meaning a move toward the $23 region would represent a gain of over 1,000% from current levels, which is a type of percentage expansion XRP has played out well in the past.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Solana is trading near $126, slipping modestly over the past 24 hours but holding a price zone that traders are watching closely. While short-term price action reflects broader market caution, Solana’s underlying activity tells a very different story. Network usage, institutional interest, and upcoming protocol upgrades are all accelerating, creating a widening gap between price and fundamentals as the market heads deeper into 2026.

This divergence is shaping Solana’s near-term outlook and its longer-term investment narrative.

Solana Finds Balance Near $126 After January Pullback

Solana ended the session near $126.72, with daily trading volume around $2.74 bn and a market capitalization just under $72 bn, ranking the token #7 globally. The recent pullback follows a rejection near $147.50, with price now consolidating inside a defined support band between $124 and $127.

On the technical side, SOL remains below its 50-EMA near $134 and 200-EMA around $136, confirming that short-term momentum has cooled. However, candlestick behavior has shifted.

Recent sessions show smaller bodies and reduced downside follow-through, suggesting selling pressure is fading rather than accelerating. As long as $125 holds, the move looks corrective, not structural.

On-Chain Activity Remains Firm Despite Price Weakness

While price has softened, Solana’s network activity continues to expand at record speed.

Key on-chain metrics stand out:

• DEX volume reached $107 bn, surpassing Ethereum, Base, and BSC combined in recent periods
• Stablecoin transfer volume climbed to $312 bn, highlighting real payment and settlement use
• Active addresses surged to 27.1 million, up more than 50% week over week
• Staking participation hit all-time highs, signaling long-term confidence rather than speculative churn

These figures point to real demand rather than short-term trading flows, reinforcing Solana’s role as a high-throughput settlement layer.

Real-World Asset Tokenization Gains Momentum on Solana

Institutional adoption is quietly reshaping Solana’s positioning. Enterprise blockchain firm R3 is building Solana-native infrastructure focused on private credit and trade finance, while Coinbase completed full Solana chain integration, expanding liquidity access across major regions.

At the same time, Solana has crossed $1 bn in tokenized real-world assets, supported by flows tied to BlackRock’s BUIDL initiative and rising USDC velocity. This shift is reframing Solana from a speculative trading chain into an institutional-grade platform for tokenized finance.

Solana (SOL/USD) Technical Outlook: $125 Support Tested as $136 Comes Into Focus

From a price perspective, Solana price prediction seems bearish as SOL is testing a rising trendline that originates from December lows. RSI remains subdued near 38–40, reflecting caution but not exhaustion. A clean break below $124 would expose $120.90, while a reclaim above $131.50 would signal renewed upside toward $136 and $141.60.

Looking further ahead, the upcoming Alpenglow upgrade, targeting faster finality and expanded block capacity, reinforces Solana’s long-term thesis. If fundamentals continue to outpace price, the current range may prove to be a positioning phase rather than a peak.

Solana Trade idea: Buy near $124–$125, target $136, stop below $120.90.

Bitcoin Hyper: The Next Evolution of BTC on Solana?

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is bringing a new phase to the BTC ecosystem. While BTC remains the gold standard for security, Bitcoin Hyper adds what it always lacked: Solana-level speed. The result: lightning-fast, low-cost smart contracts, decentralized apps, and even meme coin creation, all secured by Bitcoin.

Audited by Consult, the project emphasizes trust and scalability as adoption builds. And momentum is already strong. The presale has surpassed $30.9 million, with tokens priced at just $0.013625 before the next increase.

As Bitcoin activity climbs and demand for efficient BTC-based apps rises, Bitcoin Hyper stands out as the bridge uniting two of crypto’s biggest ecosystems. If Bitcoin built the foundation, Bitcoin Hyper could make it fast, flexible, and fun again.

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