Ethereum remains under pressure in a key support zone, teetering between a potential rebound and further decline. While bullish patterns like the cup-and-handle and ascending triangle are shaping up, confirmation is required before any decisive move.
Last Defense Zone: $2,274–$2,104 And The Libra Reversal Setup
Kamile Uray shared that Ethereum is currently trying to hold above the critical support zone between $2,775 and $2,623. This area has become a key battleground for bulls and bears, with buyers attempting to defend it to prevent further downside. If this support continues to hold, ETH could regain short-term stability and make another attempt to move higher.
On the upside, a sustained bounce from this zone could allow Ethereum to revisit the pink box resistance around the $3,445 level. A clean breakout above this resistance would activate bullish structures such as a cup-and-handle or an ascending triangle, signaling growing bullish momentum and opening the path toward the $3,894 level. However, this becomes possible if ETH manages to close above the $3,661 peak, confirming the formation of the first major high.
The $3,894 level carries technical significance, as it represents the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the most recent downward wave. A decisive close above this level would suggest continuation of the recovery. Failure to hold above it, however, could trigger renewed selling pressure and lead to another corrective move lower.
On the downside, if Ethereum loses the $2,623 support, a deeper decline toward the pink box zone between $2,274 and $2,104 would become likely. This area is notable for the potential formation of a bullish Libra pattern. Should reversal confirmation emerge from this zone, ETH could attempt another recovery phase, with the broader objective of retesting its previous highs.
Waiting For Confirmation: ETH’s Next Move Depends On Price Action
Ethereum is currently following the trajectory outlined by Crypto Candy in a recent update on X. As predicted, the asset dipped into the lower support range between $2,600 and $2,700 and is now attempting to stage a recovery from the zone. Should this upward momentum persist, the immediate objective for bulls is a return to the $3,070 level.
However, for Ethereum to firmly re-enter bullish territory and shift the broader market structure, it must close decisively above the $3,070 threshold. This level serves as the primary gateway for any sustained recovery beyond the current relief rally. Until that breakout occurs, the prevailing market bias remains firmly bearish, as the failure to reclaim and hold above $3,070 suggests that the path of least resistance is still to the downside, with lower price points remaining the primary expectation for the short term.
What a disastrous weekly close for Bitcoin, that about sums it up. After tapping $98,000 resistance the week prior, the bitcoin price just went straight down last week to close near the lows at $86,588. The bulls have been corralled back into their pens and will need a lot of help to break out once again. The bears will look to continue their momentum into this week to break down the $84,000 support level once and for all, and take the price down to the low $70,000 area. Bulls must defend $84,000 like never before to avoid a breakdown this week.
Key Support and Resistance Levels Now
The bears are back in town. $87,000 support has been lost, and $84,000 may not hold another test. If the bears can manage to get a daily close or two below $84,000, the price should accelerate down to the $72,000 to $68,000 support zone. We likely see a bounce from down there, but if it eventually gives wa,y we will look to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $58,000.
After grinding above several resistance levels recently, the bulls are back where they started. Bulls must reclaim $88,000 first and foremost. From there, they will look to get above $91,400, then $94,000 once again. $98,000 has proven itself as strong resistance above here. In the unlikely event the bulls can push above $98,000, it should be a slow go up to $103,500.
Outlook For This Week
This week is make-or-break for the bulls. Failure to defend $84,000 this week will likely send the price down to new lows. There is a large slate of big companies reporting earnings this week, so if the results are very strong, it could help buoy the bitcoin price to sustain major support levels. Although correlations to stocks have been weak lately, there are no guarantees that bitcoin will benefit from any upward market movement. Odds are in the bears’ favor for a breakdown this week.
Market mood: Bearish – The bulls showed some strength in the prior week for a slight advantage, but the bears took full control last week, driving the price right back down to the lows.
The next few weeks
The weekly chart was looking for a bounce recently, and it got one. The price action this past week, however, has put in a strong indication that this bounce may be over and new lows may be on the horizon as the price closed below the 100-week SMA. The MACD oscillator is firmly in bearish territory, and while it looked like it may see a bullish cross last week, the bears came out in force and prevented that bullish cross from taking place. The relative strength index has crossed back down below the 13 SMA and sits in a bearish posture once again.
Terminology Guide
Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expecting the price to go higher.
Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expecting the price to go lower.
Support or support level: A level at which the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more touches on support, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.
Resistance or resistance level: Opposite of support. The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold back the price.
SMA: Simple Moving Average. Average price based on closing prices over the specified period. In the case of RSI, it is the average strength index value over the specified period.
Oscillators: Technical indicators that vary over time, but typically remain within a band between set levels. Thus, they oscillate between a low level (typically representing oversold conditions) and a high level (typically representing overbought conditions). E.G., Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD).
RSI Oscillator: TheRelative Strength Index is a momentum oscillator that moves between 0 and 100. It measures the speed of the price and changes in the speed of the price movements. When RSI is over 70, it is considered to be overbought. When RSI is below 30, it is considered to be oversold.
MACD Oscillator: Moving Average Convergence-Divergence is a momentum oscillator that subtracts the difference between 2 moving averages to indicate trend as well as momentum.
Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions: Ratios based on what is known as the golden ratio, a universal ratio pertaining to growth and decay cycles in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).
More than 450 tech workers from companies like Google, Meta, OpenAI, Amazon, and Salesforce have signed a letter urging their CEOs to call the White House and demand ICE leave our cities.
Retail traders are increasingly optimistic about XRP, even though the cryptocurrency’s price is currently struggling to keep up above $1.90. Despite the recent lack of follow-through in price action, different data shows confidence is building beneath the surface.
Data from prediction markets by Robinhood shows traders are actively pricing in the possibility of a sizable upside move for XRP’s price action this year, with odds pointing toward a rally of roughly 40% from current levels.
How Prediction Market Pricing Is Reflecting Bullish Expectations
Data from prediction markets hosted on Robinhood shows that traders are actively trading contracts tied to XRP reaching specific price levels in 2026. Notably, the data shows that the contract for XRP trading at $2.75 in 2026 is currently quoted with a bid of $0.66 and an ask of $0.73.
An ask of $0.73 means that the Robinhood prediction platform believes the likelihood of XRP reaching or exceeding $2.75 is high enough to demand a significant premium. Although this does not represent a guaranteed probability, it suggests that traders offering liquidity see that outcome as more likely than not, placing implied odds in the 73% range based on current pricing.
That same optimism is present as price targets move higher, though more measured. The contract tied to XRP crossing $3.00 is priced around 50 cents. This implies the market views that level as a roughly even chance and a 50% scenario that the XRP price breaks above $3 again in 2026. The ask price drops to 44 cents for an XRP price bet of $3.25, which means there is a 44% chance XRP reaches this level.
Can XRP Still Rally While Near $1.90?
Recent price action has seen XRP now back to trading around support at $1.9. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.88, down by 5% in the past seven days. This decline is part of an extended correction move after XRP’s rally in early January was rejected around $2.41 on January 6.
The entire crypto industry is now back to a mood of fear, according to CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index. The index shows that the overall market sentiment is currently sitting at a Fear reading of 29. Even so, this risk-off mood has done little to dampen bullish expectations among many XRP investors. Several forecasts published in January continue to point toward a move into new all-time price highs this year.
Standard Chartered’s analysts, for example, have projected that XRP could reach $8 in 2026 if sustained ETF inflows and clearer regulation are able to increase institutional interest. Another price outlook echoed the idea that a new all-time high above $5 is possible before the year ends based on the current trend of XRP outflows from crypto exchange reserves.
Bitcoin traders are once again anchoring to FX, after intervention rumors around USD/JPY revived a familiar tug-of-war: short-term shock risk from a strengthening yen versus the longer-horizon bid that typically follows a softer dollar and easier global liquidity.
The spark over the weekend was a viral X thread (2.9 million views) from Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio), which framed reported “rate checks” by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York as a prelude to coordinated action. “The New York Fed has already done rate checks, which is the exact step taken before real currency intervention,” the account wrote. “That means the US is preparing to sell dollars and buy yen. This is rare. And historically, when this happens, global markets surge.”
Bitcoin In The Crosshairs
Bull Theory pointed to the macro backdrop in Japan, years of yen weakness, Japanese bond yields at multi-decade highs, and a still-hawkish Bank of Japan, as the pressure cooker forcing officials toward more aggressive signaling. In the thread’s telling, the key variable is coordination: Japan acting alone “does not work,” while joint US-Japan action “does,” citing 1998 and the Plaza Accord era as historical reference points.
A Bloomberg report cited by the account described the yen’s sharp jump on speculation that Japanese authorities could be preparing intervention to arrest the currency’s slide, after traders reported the New York Fed had conducted rate checks with major banks. The story said the yen rallied as much as roughly 1.6% to around 155.90 per dollar, marking its strongest level since December in that session.
THE FED IS PREPARING TO SELL U.S. DOLLARS AND BUY JAPANESE YEN FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS CENTURY.
The New York Fed has already done rate checks, which is the exact step taken before real currency intervention. That means the U.S. is preparing to sell dollars and buy yen.
The fight in the replies was less about whether markets moved and more about what a “rate check” actually signals.
Daniel Kostecki (@Dan_Kostecki) dismissed the viral framing outright, arguing the mechanism is often misread. “The Japanese asked the NY Fed to act as their agent in the American market,” Kostecki wrote. “NY Fed employees then started calling banks in New York to perform the ‘rate check’—strictly at the Japanese’s request. If officials from Tokyo had called New York banks, traders might have ignored it as a ‘local Japanese problem.’ But when the Fed calls, banks treat it as a signal that a joint intervention (USA + Japan) might be coming.”
That distinction matters for crypto because the thread’s “bull case” leans heavily on the idea that selling dollars to buy yen mechanically weakens the dollar and expands liquidity, conditions many macro-focused crypto traders associate with risk-asset upside.
Ted (@TedPillows) echoed the liquidity-first interpretation while flagging the path dependency. “The Fed is preparing for a possible yen intervention,” he wrote, before laying out the causal chain: dollars sold, yen bought, dollar weaker, liquidity higher, risk assets helped, then warning that “a strengthening yen could first cause a similar crash like in August 2024.” After that, he added, markets could stabilize and rally.
Michael A. Gayed (@leadlagreport), Portfolio Manager of The Free Markets ETF, offered a different rationale for why Washington would care, suggesting the Fed is acting to prevent a scenario where Japan would need to sell US Treasuries to raise dollars to intervene—“It’s not that Japan will panic. It’s the Fed that will panic,” he wrote.
Bull Theory’s most concrete crypto claim was that the setup contains both a near-term trap and a medium-term tailwind. The account argued there are “hundreds of billions of dollars tied into the yen carry trade,” meaning abrupt yen strength can force deleveraging in the very assets, stocks and crypto, funded with cheap yen borrowing.
As an example, the account pointed to August 2024, claiming a small BoJ rate hike pushed the yen higher and “Bitcoin crashed from $64K to $49K in six days,” with crypto losing “$600B in value.” Bull Theory framed that episode as the template for the “catch” in 2026: yen strength can be toxic in the first act, even if sustained dollar weakness ultimately improves the liquidity backdrop for Bitcoin.
LondonCryptoClub (@LDNCryptoClub) leaned into that lagged-liquidity framing, arguing that a weaker dollar tends to filter into risk assets with a delay, while also introducing an additional US liquidity variable. “Continued and accelerated breakdown of the dollar will be good for Bitcoin and broad risk over the next few months,” the account wrote, adding that the dollar “tends to act with a 3 months lag” outside of “knee jerk reactions.” It also warned that a potential US government shutdown and subsequent Treasury General Account rebuild could offset some of the positive liquidity impulse.
Over the weekend, volatility observed across the broader cryptocurrency market intensified, causing the price of Bitcoin to fall back to the $86,000 mark once again. Even with the bearish price action in the past few days, buying activity continues to pick up pace in the market, especially among large BTC holders.
Bitcoin’s Largest Wallets Show Conviction
Bitcoin’s price may have been struggling with heightened volatility as a result of the broader market bearish market action, but bullish sentiment remains present among investors. In the weakening condition, large BTC whales or deep-pocket investors’ sentiment turns positive and are steadily reentering the market.
Data from Santiment, a popular market intelligence and on-chain data platform, suggests that these major investors are building positions at an encouraging and steady pace, even though the broader momentum is demonstrating weakening conditions. In the past, long-term whale accumulation has typically happened in uncertain times when prices don’t accurately reflect underlying confidence.
Santiment noted that the buying activity is spotted among wallet addresses holding over 1,000 BTC. After months of consistent buying, the group has now collectively acquired about 104,340 BTC, which represents a more than 1.5% rise.
As a result of the recent purchase, the investors’ overall holdings are currently sitting at 7.17 million BTC, marking their largest level since September 15, 2025. These wealthy investors are subtly consuming available supplies rather than distributing into recent market swings, indicating confidence in Bitcoin’s medium- to long-term potential.
While buying pressure is growing among large Bitcoin holders, the number of whale transactions has also experienced a massive upswing. Santiment added that the amount of +$1 million daily transfers has exploded, reaching a 2-month high level.
A Continued Drop In BTC Open Interest
A continued drop in Bitcoin’s Open Interest is coinciding with the ongoing drop in price. Darkfost, a market expert and CryptoQuant author, highlighted that open interest is steadily declining, which does not support the emergence of a new trend as seen on the weekly change basis.
Since November, the metric has remained broadly negative, suggesting that the drop has continued for several weeks. Although there was a brief improvement earlier this month, it was followed by a price reaction.
Overall, when open interest rises, Darkfost stated that it mostly signals trend continuation to even a trend reversal, triggered by an influx of long positions. Furthermore, this is confirmed with funding rates, but this is what happens in most cases.
On Sunday, as BTC displays a steady correction, deleveraging also increased. While this is bearish in the short term, these phases simultaneously aid in cleaning the market of excessive leverage. Thus, it is critical to remember that futures are still the primary source of volume, making keeping an eye on developments there an essential move.
Software Engineer and founder of various AI start ups Vincent Van Code (@vincent_vancode) argues on X that most XRP burn projections are understated because they assume today’s low transaction fees persist even under heavy network usage. In his framing, sustained congestion on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) could push fees higher via the protocol’s load-scaling mechanics, potentially destroying on the order of one billion XRP annually.
XRPL Load Factor Could Turn Fees Into A Major XRP Burn
In a thread titled “The ‘Supply Meltdown’ Simulation,” Vincent Van Code claimed “everyone is calculating the XRP burn wrong,” starting with the premise that the commonly cited base fee of 0.00001 XRP only reflects a quiet network. “But what happens if the world actually starts using the XRPL at its 3,400 TPS limit?” he wrote, positioning load-driven fee escalation as the pivotal variable rather than raw throughput alone.
Van Code’s simulation walks through multiple fee regimes at the same headline activity rate, emphasizing that burn changes dramatically when the ledger is full and the “Load Factor” increases fees to deter spam. “As the ledger fills up, the Load Factor kicks in to stop spam,” he wrote. “Fees don’t just stay low; they scale exponentially.”
He anchored the thread with four scenarios and daily burn estimates, starting with what he called a “standard day” of 1.2 million transactions and roughly 450 XRP burned per day. From there, he modeled “global adoption” at the stated 3,400 TPS ceiling, translating to about 293 million transactions per day at base fee and an estimated 2,937 XRP burned daily.
The more aggressive claims come when he holds transaction volume constant at that 293 million-per-day level but lifts the effective fee via congestion. In his “congestion hike” case, he assumes the load-scaled fee rises to 0.001 XRP, implying about 293,760 XRP burned per day. In a “full gridlock” case at 0.01 XRP per transaction, he estimates 2,937,600 XRP burned daily.
The thesis leans on a structural feature of XRPL fees: they are not paid out to validators or any sponsoring entity, but removed from circulation. Van Code underscored that distinction directly. “The fees aren’t paid to miners. They aren’t paid to Ripple. They are destroyed forever.”
The “Supply Meltdown” Simulation
Headline: Everyone is calculating the $XRP burn wrong.
The “base fee” (0.00001 XRP) only exists when the network is quiet. But what happens if the world actually starts using the XRPL at its 3,400 TPS limit?
The Congestion Math:
As the…
From that, he draws his headline conclusion: “Under extreme global utility, we aren’t burning a few hundred tokens. We could be wiping 1 BILLION $XRP out of existence every year,” framing network demand—and the congestion it creates—as “the ultimate deflationary engine.”
Crypto analyst Darkfost has highlighted reasons why the XRP price could soon witness a bullish reversal and potentially reach new local highs. This comes amid bearish sentiment in the market, which on-chain analytics platform Santiment said could set the stage for a reversal in the altcoin’s price.
Why The XRP Price Could Soon See A Bullish Reversal
In a CryptoQuant blog post, Darkfost stated that negative funding rates signal a potential XRP price reversal. The analyst noted that the altcoin is currently trading around 47% below its all-time high (ATH) set in July last year. Furthermore, the altcoin is said to have naturally entered a phase of distribution and correction after a gain of over 600% since November 2024.
Darkfost assured that this type of movement is healthy after such a strong rally for the price. He further remarked that what stands out is the timing of the bearish consensus, as it did not form at the top but rather during a drawdown of more than 50%. Now, there are predominantly short positions on XRP, with funding rates on Binance mostly negative since December, indicating that leveraged short positions have the upper hand.
The analyst noted that historically, the market tends to move against a late consensus. As such, while the accumulation of shorts creates short-term selling pressure, it also builds latent buying pressure. Darkfost said that if the XRP price starts to rise, these short positions could be liquidated, fueling the upward move.
He revealed that a similar pattern has occurred for the token price since 2024. The first was between August and September 2024, and the second was during the April 2025 correction, when funding rates turned negative for a period before a bullish rebound occurred. The analyst stated that this price rebound was due to a shift in investor sentiment and funding rates returning to positive territory.
A Rally Starter For XRP
In an X post, Santiment stated that XRP traders are showing major FUD, which they claimed is usually a rally starter for the XRP price. The on-chain analytics platform revealed that the altcoin has fallen into ‘Extreme Fear’ territory, with small retail traders becoming pessimistic about the token after a 19% decline from its recent high on January 5th.
Santiment noted that historically, this level of bearish commentary has led to price rallies. This is based on the belief that prices move in the opposite direction to retail’s expectations more often than not. The altcoin has dropped again following the recent decline in the broader crypto market, led by Bitcoin. BTC fell below $87,000 yesterday on the back of U.S. political tensions, government shutdown risk, and ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting.
At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.88, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
A study of 50,807 German health searches found Google’s AI Overviews cite YouTube more than any other site. The AI also pulls links beyond top results, so quick symptom answers can lean on lower-bar sources.
ETH is down 1.7% in the last 24 hours and is trading below $2,900.
The coin could retest the $2,749 support level if the bearish trend continues.
ETH falls below $2,900
The cryptocurrency market has been bearish in the last three weeks despite an excellent start to the year. After hitting the $3,400 level earlier this month, Ether has lost nearly 20% of its value in the last two weeks.
The bearish performance saw ETH lose 1.5% of its value in the last24 hours and briefly dropped below $2,800 on Sunday. It has now slightly recovered and is currently trading above $2,880.
However, the bearish performance could persist as macroeconomic conditions continue to affect the broader crypto market. The U.S. government risks yet another shutdown as Democratic lawmakers have threatened to block a Department of Homeland Security funding bill following controversy over federal law enforcement actions.
The Federal Reserve will also give its first rate decision of 2026 soon. If the Fed keeps the interest rate the same or increases it, Ether and other leading cryptocurrencies could record further losses in the near term.
With Gold and Silver hitting new all-time highs a few hours ago, leading cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH could continue to underperform.
Ethereum could dip to the $2,749 support level
The ETH/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as Ether has recorded losses recently. The leading altcoin closed its daily candle below the $3,017 on Tuesday and lost 5.5% through Sunday.
At press time, ETH is trading at $2,889, close to the key support at $2,749. If this support level holds, ETH could recover toward the daily resistance level at $3,017.
However, traders should be cautious as the momentum indicators show that the bears are currently in control. The MACD lines are within the negative territory, while the RSI of 41 is below the neutral 50.
On the flip side, if Ether closes its daily candle below the $2,749 support, it could extend the correction toward the November 21 low at $2,623.
January 2026 has delivered a blunt message to investors: the playbook has changed. Gold is trading above $5,000 an ounce for the first time. Bitcoin is stuck below $88,000 and cannot hold the $90,000 level it briefly reclaimed. This gap is not just a weird market moment. It looks like a reset in how capital behaves when geopolitics heats up, and policy direction gets messy.
The numbers underline the shift. Gold rose 64% in 2025 and is already up more than 17% in the first weeks of 2026. Bitcoin, meanwhile, sits roughly 11% below its December 2024 all-time high near $108,000. Over one weekend in late January, total crypto market cap dropped by about $56 billion to roughly $2.92 trillion. This is not random noise. It reflects two different investor instincts playing out in real time.
The Safe-Haven Rush: Why Gold Owns the Narrative Right Now
Gold’s run is not coming from one single driver. It is coming from several forces stacking on top of each other.
Central banks, especially in emerging markets, have been buying gold at a pace that looks more like crisis-era behavior than normal reserve management. ETF inflows have reinforced that demand. Retail and institutions are doing the same thing for the same reason: they want a hedge against currency risk, policy mistakes, and the kind of uncertainty that makes investors second-guess everything.
The geopolitical backdrop is not helping. Trade tensions have moved from headlines into concrete threats and real negotiation pressure. President Donald Trump’s administration has floated 100% tariffs on Canadian goods tied to China-related trade developments, plus potential 200% levies on French wines and champagne. That kind of language changes behavior fast because markets do not wait for policy to become law. They price the risk now.
Currency markets are reflecting the same mood. The Japanese yen strengthened to 153.89 per dollar, its strongest level since November 2025, as traders speculated about possible coordination between U.S. and Japanese authorities. Japan’s top currency diplomat kept timing vague, which tends to make uncertainty worse, not better. The euro pushed to a four-month high near $1.1898 as traders cut dollar exposure ahead of the Fed’s next signals and the possibility of new leadership chatter.
These moves matter because they signal something deeper than FX positioning. They suggest investors are questioning stability and coordination at the top of the global monetary system. When people get nervous about reserve currencies, they often reach for gold. Gold does not pay yield. It does not grow cash flow. It holds value because it still functions as a trust asset when confidence in other systems starts to wobble.
History helps frame the moment. In 2008, gold climbed from roughly $800 to about $1,900 by 2011 as central banks flooded the system with stimulus. In 2020, gold hit new highs above $2,000 during peak pandemic fear. This rally is bigger in both percentage terms and absolute levels, which suggests the market is pricing something more structural than a single shock.
Bitcoin’s Reality Check: Why “Digital Gold” Is Not Acting Like Gold
Bitcoin has spent years carrying the “digital gold” label. This month has exposed how fragile that comparison can be when stress hits.
Gold is absorbing defensive flows. Bitcoin is absorbing selling from people who bought higher and now want out. That difference matters because it changes how rallies behave. When gold rallies in a risk-off environment, it often pulls in more buyers. When Bitcoin rallies in the same environment, it often runs into sellers looking to exit.
Technically, Bitcoin has been trapped in a structure that has not offered easy upside. Price action has struggled around $87,619 after losing $90,000 during weekend trading. Support sits around $84,698 with resistance near $89,241. If support fails, downside pressure toward $84,000 becomes the obvious target. If resistance holds, $90,000 stays a psychological ceiling rather than a launchpad.
More important than the chart is the behavior underneath it. CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin holders selling at a loss for the first time since October 2023. That is a shift in tone. In strong bull phases, holders usually ride volatility because they expect higher prices ahead. When people start locking in losses, they are not thinking in bull-market terms. They are managing pain and uncertainty.
Glassnode analysis adds another problem: a heavy supply overhang above $100,000. Many holders are sitting in positions bought between current levels and six figures. When price approaches their entry zones, they sell to break even or limit damage. That creates a supply wall that is hard to clear without fresh demand and strong momentum.
This is not how Bitcoin behaved in 2020 to 2021. Back then, conviction and institutional narratives pushed price from $10,000 to $69,000 in about a year. Today’s structure feels more like rotation and digestion than acceleration. Futures volumes are compressed. Leverage is subdued. Traders are not leaning into upside the way they do when they truly believe the move is imminent.
Prediction markets reflect the change in psychology. Polymarket odds have shown more confidence in gold holding above $5,500 through mid-year than Bitcoin setting new highs over the same window. That is the opposite of the mood in late 2024 when crypto optimism ran hot after Bitcoin crossed $100,000.
The deeper takeaway is uncomfortable for some investors: Bitcoin is not acting like a safe haven right now. It is acting like a high-volatility asset that depends on liquidity, confidence, and risk appetite. That does not kill the long-term thesis, but it changes how investors should frame it in the short term.
Altcoins Under Stress: What Happens When Speculation Hits a Wall
Bitcoin’s weakness looks mild compared to what is happening in altcoins.
Kaia (KAIA) is a clean example. It fell nearly 20% in 24 hours to around $0.0762 after breaking support near $0.0797 and briefly dipping below $0.0721. It held above its 50-day EMA, which offers some technical comfort, but the drop shows how fast liquidity disappears when sentiment cracks.
Altcoins are built for leverage to mood. In bull phases, capital moves from Bitcoin into Ethereum, then into larger alts, then into smaller speculative tokens as investors chase bigger multiples. In corrections, the flow reverses and the weakest assets get hit first. That creates a brutal reality: altcoins can look unstoppable on the way up and untradeable on the way down.
Ethereum has not offered much shelter either. Ether traded near $2,867 in late January, down 2.6% while Bitcoin fell 1.3%. That underperformance signals that investors are not rotating into higher-beta crypto exposure. Thin spot volume and muted derivatives activity support the same conclusion.
The question now is whether this is a pause before another risk cycle or a deeper structural shift. Several factors argue for caution. U.S. regulation is moving, but it still has open questions around token classification and how securities law will apply. Japan may approve crypto ETFs by 2028, with firms like Nomura and SBI expected to launch products on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, but a two-year timeline does not help the next few months.
There is also a credibility problem. Reports of a U.S.-linked crypto theft scandal involving alleged misuse of access to seizure wallets have rattled confidence. ZachXBT has traced funds linked to thefts spanning 2024 and 2025. Incidents like this do not just hurt sentiment for a week. They raise uncomfortable questions about custody, oversight, and the real-world weak points in the ecosystem.
What Institutions Are Actually Doing Right Now
Retail narratives dominate crypto chatter, but institutional behavior usually tells the cleaner story.
Central banks are voting with their balance sheets, and they are choosing gold. Many of them are not willing, or not able, to justify holding an asset that can drop 15% in a week. Their gold buying creates a steady baseline bid that crypto does not have.
Hedge funds and family offices have also turned cautious. Leverage in crypto derivatives remains compressed compared to peak cycles. Open interest in Bitcoin futures exists, but it has not expanded in the way you would expect if large players were building a new bullish stance.
Corporate treasury adoption has not restarted in a meaningful way. During 2020 to 2021, it was easier to sell boards on Bitcoin exposure because liquidity was abundant and narratives were clean. Today, when gold is up 17% year-to-date and Bitcoin is chopping sideways, that boardroom pitch becomes harder.
Pension funds and sovereign wealth funds remain mostly on the sidelines. They move slowly and demand strong regulatory certainty. The U.S. may get there, but it is not there yet.
Right now, institutional money looks like it is waiting, not charging in. That is the simplest read, and it matters because those investors have the best access to research, infrastructure, and policy visibility.
The Fed Variable: Why This Week Can Move Everything
The late-January Federal Reserve meeting matters more than people want to admit. Not because the market expects a surprise rate hike or cut, but because guidance sets tone and liquidity expectations.
If the Fed signals confidence that inflation is easing and hints at future cuts, risk assets usually respond well. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, and they tend to weaken the dollar, which supports commodity pricing. Crypto would benefit too, mostly through improved liquidity and renewed risk appetite.
If the Fed stays hawkish and emphasizes inflation risk, the market hears “higher for longer.” That hurts speculation. It also pressures gold through higher real yields, though safe-haven demand can sometimes overpower yield dynamics when fear becomes the bigger driver.
Politics adds another layer. Trump has criticized Jerome Powell publicly, and any credible talk of leadership changes introduces a market question about central bank independence. If markets interpret leadership shifts as more accommodative and more political, both gold and Bitcoin could rally on the same narrative: long-term trust risk in fiat management.
FX moves leading into the meeting show the tension. Traders have been trimming dollar exposure. That positioning can unwind quickly after Fed messaging, which would ripple into correlated assets.
Geography Is Not Background Noise in 2026
Regional differences are starting to matter more.
Asia has been mixed. China’s Shanghai index rose slightly while Japanese equities fell on yen strength. That split reflects different policy priorities and economic conditions across the region.
Japan’s currency strength is a headwind for exporters, but the medium-term ETF discussion positions Japan as a potential regulated gateway for crypto exposure, even if the timeline stretches to 2028. Europe has its own stress points, including trade friction with the U.S. The euro’s strength helps imports but hurts export competitiveness. The ECB has moved more dovishly than the Fed, which further changes cross-border capital flows.
The U.S. still dominates crypto market structure, liquidity, and innovation, even with regulatory uncertainty. Any real legislative breakthrough will matter globally because U.S. clarity tends to set the tone for institutions everywhere.
Emerging markets sit at the center of the gold move. They feel currency risk hardest and often have the strongest incentive to seek alternatives. But in practice, gold is still simpler and more accessible than crypto for most investors in those regions, which helps explain why gold is absorbing flows first.
Portfolio Positioning: What Discipline Looks Like in Uncertain Markets
This environment punishes overconfidence.
Gold’s role is straightforward. It is doing what it has historically done in messy periods. A 5% to 10% allocation to physical gold or gold-backed ETFs can make sense for many investors with multi-year horizons. It should protect the portfolio without taking over the entire strategy.
Crypto needs a different label. It is closer to a venture-style exposure to technology adoption than a pure safe haven. That means sizing should be conservative. A 1% to 3% allocation can keep investors engaged in long-term upside without turning short-term volatility into a lifestyle risk.
This is also a moment where patience often beats activity. Large shifts based on short-term moves tend to destroy value. Rebalancing rules matter more than predictions. If gold has grown far beyond its target weight, trimming back to plan can be smarter than chasing the next headline.
Dollar-cost averaging can work for crypto investors who believe in long-term adoption but do not trust the next six weeks. Small, scheduled buys remove emotion and reduce timing risk.
Leverage is the trap. Borrowing to amplify crypto exposure remains one of the fastest ways to blow up in a market like this. Volatility compression often precedes violent expansion. Liquidations do not care about your thesis.
Scenarios for the Next Six Months
Several paths remain plausible through mid-2026.
One scenario is the most boring and arguably the most consistent with current structure: gold keeps rising on safe-haven demand while crypto chops sideways. Gold could press toward $5,500 as tensions and central bank buying persist. Bitcoin could range between $80,000 and $95,000, supported by long-term holders but capped by overhead supply and cautious institutions.
A second scenario requires alignment: easing geopolitical tension plus Fed rate cuts. That would likely rotate capital out of gold and back into risk, lifting crypto meaningfully. Bitcoin could reclaim $100,000 if market structure improves and leverage returns, while gold could pull back but remain elevated above $4,500.
A third scenario is the darker one: economic conditions deteriorate materially. Gold could push toward $6,000 while crypto faces forced liquidations and deeper downside, with Bitcoin potentially testing $70,000 or lower.
A fourth scenario depends on policy competence: a clear U.S. regulatory breakthrough that unlocks institutional capital at scale. It is possible, but the near-term probability remains lower than crypto bulls want.
The most realistic outcome may look like a mix: partial easing in some geopolitical zones, new flashpoints elsewhere, gradual Fed shifts, and crypto alternating between relief rallies and pullbacks without clean direction.
Risk Management Rules That Still Matter
When correlations move and narratives break, basics protect capital.
Position sizing is the first filter. Overallocating to a single theme is the most common failure. Crypto should be sized so that total loss would not change your life. Gold should be sized so it protects the portfolio without trapping you in defensive posture if equities rebound.
Diversification only works when it is real. Ten cryptocurrencies do not diversify if they all move with Bitcoin. Two forms of gold exposure can also behave differently: physical gold, gold ETFs, and miners each carry distinct risks.
Liquidity matters more than people admit. Assets that trade cleanly in calm markets can become thin in stress. Holding enough cash or liquid reserves to avoid forced selling remains a timeless rule.
Discipline is the edge. Volatility is designed to trigger bad decisions. Rules around rebalancing and allocation prevent emotional reactions. Writing down your principles during calm periods and following them during stress is not just advice. It is a practical survival tool.
Taxes also become more important as volatility increases. Crypto gains and losses can be managed strategically through loss harvesting, holding periods, and timing. Gold can have special tax treatment in some jurisdictions. Investors should not wing it.
What Past Divergences Tell Us
This is not the first time asset relationships have shifted.
In 2013’s taper tantrum, gold fell while risk assets also struggled. Safe-haven flow went into dollars, not gold. That episode shows safe haven behavior changes depending on what investors fear.
In 2018, Bitcoin collapsed while gold stayed rangebound, because macro fear was muted. That period shows gold does not automatically benefit from crypto weakness.
In 2020, both rallied after the initial crash because stimulus and inflation fears dominated. That environment is not today’s environment. Today looks more like geopolitical stress plus constrained liquidity, which tends to favor gold over speculative assets.
The lesson is simple: correlations are not laws. They are temporary relationships shaped by the dominant fear in the room.
The Ethereum Problem: Why Number Two Looks Stuck
Ethereum’s underperformance is not just a chart issue. It points to a broader question about smart contract platforms and real adoption.
DeFi activity is down from peak levels. NFT volumes have collapsed. Layer-2 scaling has reduced fees, which is good for users, but it has also fragmented liquidity and attention across multiple networks. That can weaken Ethereum’s network effects, even if the technology continues to improve.
Solana and other platforms have gained share, but they have also struggled during broad risk-off conditions. So this is not just an Ethereum-specific problem. It is a demand problem across crypto applications.
The bigger concern for Ethereum bulls is the application gap. Ethereum has proven it can work. What it has not proven is that it can deliver mainstream use cases that compete with web2 experiences at scale. Many on-chain apps still feel like tools for crypto-native users rather than products built for the public.
Without clear demand drivers, ETH valuation stays tied to speculative appetite. In a market where investors are reducing risk, that is not a great setup.
Regulation: The One Catalyst That Can Reprice Everything
Even with weak price action, regulation remains the biggest potential reset.
U.S. legislative progress is focusing on custody rules, stablecoin frameworks, and exchange registration. Real clarity on token classification would be the unlock. It would reduce existential risk for projects, give institutions rules they can follow, and lower the odds of surprise enforcement events that shake markets.
International coordination is improving too. FATF standards have pushed most major jurisdictions toward common baselines for exchanges and wallet providers. The EU’s MiCA rules bring structure across a large economic bloc. Some elements are heavy, but clear rules often matter more than perfect rules.
Japan’s ETF discussion suggests growing acceptance of crypto as an investment asset class, even if the pace is slow. China remains restrictive on trading, but it continues to pursue blockchain applications and central bank digital currency research.
Regulation will not fix market structure overnight, but it can change who is allowed to participate. That is how market regimes shift.
The CBDC Wildcard
Central bank digital currencies sit in a strange place. They validate the concept of digital money while competing with private crypto rails.
CBDCs are permissioned and controlled. They do not offer the decentralization or supply constraints that define Bitcoin. They can also enable deeper state-level visibility into transactions, which raises privacy concerns.
Still, their development signals something important: central banks agree that the future of money is digital. The question is whether CBDCs simply replicate existing payment rails, or whether they introduce programmable money that could replace some stablecoin and DeFi use cases.
If CBDCs expand surveillance and control, some users may move toward crypto as an opt-out alternative. If CBDCs remain limited and functional, they may coexist without materially disrupting crypto adoption.
The timeline remains unclear. Technical scaling, interoperability, and political pushback will shape how fast democracies move. Authoritarian systems may move quicker, but that experience may not translate cleanly to the U.S. or Europe.
Conclusion: Dealing With Markets That Do Not Follow Narratives
Early 2026 is forcing investors to separate slogans from reality.
Gold is behaving like gold. It is absorbing defensive flows during uncertainty. Bitcoin is behaving like a high-volatility asset that depends on liquidity and confidence. That does not destroy the long-term crypto thesis, but it does change how investors should frame it right now.
Investors should position for the market they have, not the market they want. Gold deserves a role as insurance. Crypto deserves a smaller, deliberate role as a high-upside, high-risk exposure to long-term adoption. Diversification, disciplined sizing, and patience remain the cleanest strategy in a regime where trends are not cooperating.
The next months will reveal whether crypto consolidates before a new growth phase or whether this marks a deeper shift in how capital treats digital assets during stress. Investors who stay disciplined and realistic will be fine either way. Investors who overextend on conviction or trade emotionally will likely learn the same lesson markets teach every cycle.
Markets humble confidence. This divergence is a reminder that assets do not owe anyone the behavior that narratives promised. The investors who accept that and manage risk accordingly will be in the best position for whatever 2026 delivers.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Why is gold outperforming Bitcoin in early 2026?
Gold is benefiting from geopolitical tension, central bank buying, and currency uncertainty. Bitcoin is behaving like a risk asset, not a safe haven, and is facing selling pressure from recent buyers.
2. Is Bitcoin still considered “digital gold”?
In theory, yes. In practice, not right now. Bitcoin is trading more like a speculative asset that depends on liquidity and risk appetite rather than a defensive store of value.
3. Why did gold cross $5,000 per ounce?
Central banks accelerated gold purchases, investors sought safety amid trade and policy uncertainty, and currency volatility increased demand for non-fiat stores of value.
4. Why are altcoins falling more than Bitcoin?
Altcoins carry higher risk and lower liquidity. When markets turn risk-off, capital exits speculative tokens first, leading to sharper and faster declines.
5. Is Ethereum underperforming Bitcoin in 2026?
Yes. Ethereum has lagged Bitcoin due to weaker demand for DeFi and NFTs, fragmented liquidity from layer-2 solutions, and lack of strong new mainstream applications.
6. What role is the Federal Reserve playing in these markets?
Fed guidance affects liquidity, dollar strength, and risk appetite. Uncertainty around rates and potential leadership changes has increased volatility across gold, crypto, and currencies.
7. Are institutions buying crypto right now?
Most large institutions are cautious. Central banks are buying gold, while hedge funds, pensions, and corporates are largely waiting for clearer regulation and better risk-reward setups.
8. Is now a good time to invest in Bitcoin?
That depends on time horizon and risk tolerance. Short-term conditions favor caution, while long-term investors may prefer small, disciplined allocations using dollar-cost averaging.
9. How much gold or crypto should a portfolio hold in 2026?
Many investors consider 5–10% in gold for protection and 1–3% in crypto for upside exposure, sized according to personal risk tolerance and financial goals.
10. What could change the outlook for crypto in 2026?
Clear U.S. regulation, Fed rate cuts, easing geopolitical tensions, or renewed institutional adoption could improve sentiment. Until then, crypto is likely to remain volatile and range-bound.
A new Bitcoin price prediction has been put forward following a long-term technical analysis shared on the social media platform X by crypto analyst Leshka.eth. The analysis compares Bitcoin’s current structure on the weekly timeframe to the 2021 market peak, showing how price behavior is repeating an identical pattern.
Based on how Bitcoin has interacted with a rising multi-year channel in previous cycles, the analysis proposes a projection as to how Bitcoin could be setting up for a powerful corrective move that sends the price back to as low as $30,000.
Bitcoin Weekly Structure About To Break
Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the weekly candlestick timeframe chart shows that the leading cryptocurrency has been trading with higher highs and higher lows since 2018. Interestingly, this trend of higher highs has led to repeated interaction with a rising resistance trendline that has defined every major cycle top.
As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin pushes into this upper boundary during each bull market, only to be rejected once momentum fades. These rejection points are clearly marked across multiple cycles, including the 2017 and 2021 peaks. This repeated failure is a defining feature of Bitcoin’s macro cycles of exhaustion after prolonged upside expansion.
Bitcoin once again rallied into this same long-term trendline when it broke to new all-time highs in October 2025 before stalling and rolling over. Bitcoin’s price failed to hold above the trendline and has corrected by about 30% since then. The leading cryptocurrency is now trading below $90,000, and this technical outlook introduces the possibility that the current pullback is not yet complete and could extend further.
The chart also highlights the depth of prior bear market declines once Bitcoin was rejected at this long-term structure. After the 2017 cycle top, Bitcoin fell roughly 84.99% from peak to trough. Following the 2021 high, Bitcoin once again declined by about 77.47% before finding a bottom near the lower boundary of the broader rising channel.
Based on the current setup, the projected downside move marked on the chart measures approximately 72.86%. Applying a drawdown of that magnitude from the recent cycle high places Bitcoin’s potential bottom around $30,000.
Interestingly, Grok AI offered a more optimistic interpretation of Bitcoin’s near-term outlook based on responses to questions under the same technical post. According to Grok, aggregated views from sources such as CNBC, Reddit, and Forbes suggest that the probability of Bitcoin dropping into the $30,000 to $40,000 range is relatively low, estimated at around 15% to 25% by bearish cycle models.
Japan appears to be going all in on XRP, as new reports reveal that the country is working toward reclassifying the cryptocurrency. An XRP advocate and expert known on X as ‘SonOfaRichard’ has exposed what’s going on behind the scenes, noting that Japan is now transforming XRP into a real financial infrastructure, formally integrating it into the country’s capital markets.
Behind Japan’s New Commitment To XRP
For many countries, particularly the US and South Korea, XRP has primarily been viewed as a digital asset for payments and trading, subject to both bullish and bearish price action. However, Japan has recently taken a step further, moving beyond the speculative bubble and aiming to reclassify the altcoin and integrate it into the country’s financial infrastructure.
In his post on X, SonOfaRichard delved deep into this ongoing development, highlighting the significance and implications of Japan’s involvement in XRP. He said that Japan is not merely expressing bullish sentiment on XRP, as many countries, traders, and analysts do. Instead, it is changing how the cryptocurrency is classified domestically by placing it under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (FIEA). This move represents a significant regulatory shift rather than a market-driven endorsement.
According to the expert, assets under the FIEA are not designed to fuel speculative market pumps. By moving XRP under this new regulatory framework, Japan would effectively position it alongside traditional financial products, such as bonds, funds, and derivatives. This shift removes primary focus on short-term price movements and prioritizes structure and oversight as a pathway toward long-term market development and maturation.
SonOfaRichard has said that Japan’s reclassification of XRP will introduce insider trading controls, custody audits, disclosure standards, and clearer rules for institutional balance sheets. He explained that once the process is complete, it will not be treated as an experiment but as a full infrastructure normalization. He added that institutions that have been waiting for clear regulatory approval may soon receive it, as Japan moves closer to granting final authorization.
Timeline For Japan’s Reclassification
In his post, SonOfaRichard clarified the timeline of Japan’s reclassification of XRP. He explained that it would not be an immediate change, as the process follows Japan’s fiscal-year logic, not the US calendar. Legislative submission is expected in 2026, with full implementation aligned with Japan’s formal fiscal rails and taking effect only after official approval.
The XRP expert noted that Japan’s regulatory system runs on a fiscal year from April to March, and new rules typically come into effect at the start of the fiscal cycle rather than mid-year. This means XRP’s reclassification will likely occur sometime in Q2 2026.
SonOfaRichard also emphasized that the reclassification will focus on institutional treatment, custody, disclosure, and compliance standards. He added that the process represents a massive structural shift and will therefore unfold slowly and deliberately to ensure proper alignment with Japan’s established regulatory frameworks.
Bitcoin price extended losses and traded below $88,500. BTC is consolidating losses and might attempt a recovery wave if it clears $88,500.
Bitcoin started a minor recovery wave from the $86,000 level.
The price is trading below $88,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
There is a new bearish trend line forming with resistance at $88,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair might recover if it manages to settle above $86,200 and $86,000.
Bitcoin Price Dips Further
Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $89,000 support and extended losses. BTC declined sharply below the $88,500 and $87,000 support levels.
The bears even pushed the price below $86,500. A low was formed at $86,007, and the price is now attempting a recovery wave. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $91,099 swing high to the $86,007 low.
Bitcoin is now trading below $88,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $86,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $88,000 level. There is also a new bearish trend line forming with resistance at $88,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
The first key resistance is near the $88,500 level since it is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $91,099 swing high to the $86,007 low.
A close above the $88,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $89,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $90,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $91,000 and $91,500.
More Losses In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $88,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $86,700 level. The first major support is near the $86,200 level.
The next support is now near the $85,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $83,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $82,500, below which BTC struggle to recover in the near term.
Technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $86,700, followed by $86,000.
The calls of a potential Bitcoin supercycle in 2026 intensified over the past week after former Binance CEO Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao — yet another prominent voice in crypto — laid out his predictions for the new year. However, a popular analyst on the social media platform X has released an opposing view, predicting a deep bottom for the BTC price this year.
BTC Price At Risk Of Further 65% Decline
In a January 25th post on the X platform, prominent crypto trader Ali Martinez said, in a sarcastic tone, that “the super cycle is super cycling.” In what seemed like a response to the buzz around CZ’s Bitcoin supercycle projection, the market pundit tempered the expectations with a $31,000 price bottom call for the premier cryptocurrency in 2026.
This bearish prediction is based on the appearance of price fractals on the BTC chart. For context, fractals are repeating patterns in price charts that can help map and project potential price movements for a particular cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this scenario).
As observed in the chart above, the price of BTC is currently following a similar movement pattern as in 2022. The premier cryptocurrency, after initially setting a then all-time high around $67,000 in early 2021, witnessed a nearly 55% correction to just above the $30,000 level by mid-July.
While the price of Bitcoin recovered and went back to set a record high of above $69,000 by the end of 2021, the market leader spent the majority of the following year in a downward trend. Exacerbated by the various bearish events of 2022, BTC ended the year at a low of around $15,500.
Martinez believes that the Bitcoin price is undergoing a similar movement pattern, having experienced an over 32% decline before climbing to the current all-time high of $126,080. The market pundit postulates that the premier cryptocurrency is currently witnessing the extended decline that saw its price reach $15,500 in 2022.
However, it is worth mentioning that the target this time around lies at $31,800, nearly 65% drop from the current price point. Hence, if the historical patterns highlighted by Martinez are to go by, there seems to be a higher likelihood of the Bitcoin price embarking on an extended downward trend rather than a supercycle.
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $88,528, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours.
“Bitcoin is the digital gold” is one of the most popular narratives in the cryptocurrency industry, reiterating BTC’s growing status as a formidable store of value. However, while the premier cryptocurrency has floundered over the past months, gold and the metals market have largely witnessed explosive growth.
These contrasting performances have led to conversations about capital rotation between Bitcoin and gold, as the crowd expects one to always outperform the other at any given time. Recent data, however, suggests that the relationship between the BTC and gold price action is overrated.
Capital Flow Link Between BTC And Gold Overestimated
In a January 24 post on the X platform, on-chain analyst with the pseudonym Darkfost weighed in on the discourse surrounding capital rotation between gold and Bitcoin. According to the market pundit, the idea that investor funds flow from gold to Bitcoin is somewhat overblown.
To highlight this overestimation, Darkfost shared a chart showing periods where BTC outperforms or underperforms depending on gold’s trend. This chart typically provides two signals: positive (BTC above the 180-day moving average [MA] and gold below the 180-day MA) and negative (BTC below the 180-day moving average and gold below the 180-day MA).
As observed in the chart above and stated by Darkfost, the relationship between Bitcoin and gold does not appear to be fully substantiated. The on-chain analyst revealed that there have been as many positive periods as the negative ones, suggesting that the flagship cryptocurrency moves independently of gold.
Darkfost wrote:
This suggests that BTC continues to evolve independently, without clear evidence of a sustained capital rotation from gold.
Furthermore, Darkfost noted that a positive signal does not necessarily mean that capital is flowing out of gold into Bitcoin. According to the on-chain analyst, it is simply not possible to determine whether there is a capital flow relationship between the world’s largest cryptocurrency and gold.
Bitcoin & Gold Price Overview
While Bitcoin started the new year on a pretty strong note, the bullish momentum has pretty much waned over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, the gold price has continued to flourish this year, recently reaching a new all-time high above $4,900 per ounce.
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $89,230, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is nearly 30% adrift its all-time high above the $126,000 level.
The Bitcoin price action has been muted over the past few days, trading within the $90,000 and $88,000 levels. Classically, consolidation periods often precede major moves either to the upside or downside of the market.
As such, questions on the next trajectory of the flagship cryptocurrency are being asked. A latest on-chain evaluation has offered a positive prognosis on the next direction for the Bitcoin price.
Accumulation Demand Metric Surges To All-Time-High
In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, on-chain analyst CoinNiel hypothesized that the Bitcoin price could be at the beginning of a bullish trend. The market quant based this prognosis on two metrics — the Accumulator Address Demand and the Liquidity Inventory Ratio (month).
The Accumulator Address Demand metric monitors the net buying pressure coming from addresses that buy Bitcoin consistently, and without any significant selling. This behavior (of buying and rarely selling) is typical of the large-scale Bitcoin holders, commonly known as the whales.
Notably, CoinNiel also pointed out that when major withdrawals from exchanges occur, they are rarely ever incited by retailers, but by whales. As such, when the Bitcoin whales withdraw their holdings from exchanges, their buying pressure translates into an increase in the Accumulator Address Demand.
From the chart above, the indicator has reached an all-time high level. According to the crypto pundit, this could be a sign that the whales are currently experiencing, on intense levels, the “fear of missing out.”
The second metric, the Liquidity Inventory Ratio (Month), also reinforces CoinNiel’s bullish outlook. This metric tracks and compares existing Bitcoin demand to the supply available on exchanges, showing whether demand can overwhelm available supply.
When this ratio rises sharply, it is usually a sign that demand is absorbing newly created supply. From the data shared by the analyst, the Liquidity Inventory Ratio has also reached an extreme value of 3.8.
However, this extreme reading is only a reflection of what is happening on US exchanges. Hence, CoinNiel implied that, for the first time in years, US exchanges are recording exceptionally high demand relative to the coins available.
In theory, a 3.8 reading implies the imminence of a supply shock in the scenario where current conditions prevail. But, the analyst highlighted that it may not necessarily happen, as a 3.8 reading is more a sign of intensified whale demand than a surefire means to predict supply shocks.
The big picture, especially when these two metrics are looked at together, appears to be distinctly bullish. This is because available data points out that the whales are likely positioning for what could be a resumed bullish trajectory for the Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at $88,520, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours.
The Bitcoin price is showing signs of history repeating itself, as current price action mirrors key patterns from the 2021 cluster. With resistance near $91,000–$92,000 and the macro downtrend looming, traders are watching closely to see if BTC will break higher or face renewed pressure. The coming days could prove decisive in shaping the next major move.
Bitcoin Mirrors 2021 Cluster: History In Motion
Bitcoin continues to mirror the price patterns seen during the 2021 cluster. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital noted that the current market structure is echoing historical behavior, suggesting that similar dynamics are at play. Traders are closely watching these familiar patterns to gauge whether the cycle is repeating itself or if new trends may emerge.
The rules of the game remain consistent. A bearish acceleration would likely be triggered if Bitcoin breaks down from the macro descending triangle base, currently positioned around $82,000. Conversely, a bullish bias would require a decisive break above the macro downtrend, which sits near $100,000. These levels serve as critical decision points for the market, dictating whether bulls or bears gain control in the coming sessions.
So far, Bitcoin has encountered rejection in the high $90,000s, falling just short of the macro downtrend. This mirrors previous market behavior, in which the asset developed a basing structure near the triangle’s base before attempting to push higher toward the downtrend’s upper boundary. It demonstrates that history is repeating itself for now, with the market consolidating and preparing for its next directional move.
If the macro downtrend continues to act as resistance, the triangle’s base may gradually weaken over time. Such a development would increase the risk of further downside, making the reaction at both the base and the downtrend crucial.
BTC Surpasses $91,000 Before Facing Selling Pressure
In a recent market update by Ted, it was noted that while Bitcoin broke above the $91,000 threshold yesterday, the rally met significant resistance. Sellers entered the market with substantial force at these local highs, effectively capping the momentum and preventing a sustained breakout.
As a result of this rejection, Bitcoin has retreated into the “no-trading zone.” Ted suggests that this period of sideways price action is likely to persist through the next couple of days, largely driven by the typical low-liquidity environment seen during the weekend.
Looking ahead, the outlook remains cautious. Ted emphasizes that any upward movements will likely be short-lived until BTC can decisively clear the $91,000 to $92,000 resistance zone. Meanwhile, such a move must be backed by strong spot demand to prove its validity.
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