In a not-so-surprising turn of events, the bearish orientation of the Bitcoin price has continued into the month of December, suggesting that the premier cryptocurrency could end the year in the red. Interestingly, recent on-chain data has offered insights into the likely direction of Bitcoin based on the integrity of an important price level.
Active Market Participants’ Cost Basis At $82,000
In a December 5 post on the X platform, market analyst Burak Kesmeci shared an interesting outlook on the direction of the Bitcoin price.
The analyst disclosed that whatever happens around the $82,000 mark could make or mar Bitcoin’s trajectory in the near term. To demonstrate why this price region is so important, Kesmeci pointed out that it appears to be the convergence point of two highly influential cost bases in Bitcoin’s history.
Kesmeci revealed that the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds have an average purchase cost of approximately $82,000. Because ETFs are one of Bitcoin’s strongest demand sources, tracking the values of their average cost-basis could serve as a good means to tell where the market stands institutionally.
The crypto pundit also referenced the Bitcoin True Market Mean metric, which monitors the cost at which active investors procured their holdings—except for mined or rarely-moved BTC. Notably, in the current market cycle, Bitcoin’s active participants mostly purchased their coins around a valuation of $82,000.
What Happens If $82,000 Fails?
Usually, when price slips beneath any major price support, there is, in turn, an increase in overall selling pressure, as buy-side liquidity is converted to bearish momentum via losses incurred by investors. Hence, in the scenario where $82,000 fails to hold, a wave of bearish pressure is expected to ensue, as Bitcoin’s active investors try to cut their losses.
However, Kesmeci expects something even more specific to follow. According to historical data, whenever Bitcoin falls beneath its active market participant cost basis, it often falls further downwards, as though it is targeting its Realized Price.
At the moment, the Bitcoin Realized Price sits near $56,000 — a price level significantly beneath its investors’ average cost basis. Kesmeci therefore warned that a slip beneath $82,000 could precede Bitcoin’s sharp downturn towards $56,000.
This would represent an almost 40% decline from the current price point. As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $89,310, reflecting an over 3% dip in the past 24 hours.
The Bitcoin price has had a mixed performance over the past week, with both sides of the market divide struggling to establish dominance. In the latest battle between the bulls and bears, the premier cryptocurrency appears to be succumbing to pressure from the latter group.
As this weekend approached, the Bitcoin price retreated from its latest local high of around $94,000 to beneath the psychological $90,000 level. This latest correction has prompted questions in the crowd, with investors wondering whether it is just a brief obstacle or the end of the recovery.
Why $80,500 Could Be The Next Local Low For BTC
In a December 5 post on the social media platform X, Alphractal CEO and founder shared insight into the latest Bitcoin price decline below $90,000. The on-chain expert revealed that losing the $89,800 level is the more relevant occurrence in the latest price downturn.
In a previous post on X, Wedson evaluated the likely trajectory of the Bitcoin price should it lose the $89,800 level. The crypto pundit revealed that losing this price mark could lead to an accumulation pattern for the bulls or a redistribution phase for the bears.
While the accumulation period for the bulls would initially coincide with lower prices, it eventually leads to a Bitcoin price return to above the latest local high. Meanwhile, a redistribution phase could see the bears push the flagship cryptocurrency to around the $70,000 mark.
According to the Alphractal CEO, the price of BTC also failed to hold the key on-chain levels, strengthening the probability of a broader price sideways phase. “Sideways action is the cause — the big pumps or dumps are just the effect,” Wedson had earlier stated in his previous X post.
Furthermore, Wedson noted that the next level to watch is $86,500, which, if lost, opens the very high possibility for the formation of a new local low around $80,500. This local low could provide a perfect spot for investors to buy the dip and enter the market.
Bitcoin Price Overview
As mentioned earlier, the past week has been one of highs and lows for the premier cryptocurrency, plummeting to as low as $84,600 on Monday, December 1. After a shaky start to the month, the Bitcoin price recovered strongly to around $94,000 on Thursday, December 4.
As of this writing, the market leader is valued at around $89,415, reflecting an over 3% price decline in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the price of Bitcoin has been down by nearly 10% in the past year.
The cryptocurrency market experienced another wave of liquidations on Friday, with Bitcoin (BTC) prices dipping below the critical support level of $90,000. This decline followed a brief rally that had seen its price rise approximately $3,000 above this threshold earlier in the week.
Crypto Market Faces $430 Million In Liquidations
Data from CoinGlass reveals that nearly $430 million in liquidations occurred across the crypto market over the past 24 hours, predominantly affecting leveraged long positions, which accounted for about $350 million.
During this period, Bitcoin underwent a 3.5% retracement, with its price settling at just above $89,120—a stark 29% below its all-time high of over $126,000 reached in October.
Market expert OxNobler recently highlighted the role of both retail and institutional investors in this downturn. In a post on social media platform X, OxNobler detailed the reason behind Bitcoin’s decline: significant sell-offs by major players.
According to the analyst, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, sold 4,000 BTC; U.S.-based Coinbase (COIN) liquidated 5,675 BTC; and traditional finance giant Fidelity sold 3,288 BTC. Additionally, market maker Wintermute offloaded 1,793 BTC.
Notably, the analyst pointed out that Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, which is the largest public company holder of Bitcoin with over 650,000 coins, has also sold over 3,820 coins in this same time frame.
The firm’s sell-off comes on the heels of speculation regarding Strategy’s potential to liquidate some of its holdings due to the substantial losses affecting its financial performance amid declining Bitcoin prices.
When Strategy CEO Phong Le was questioned about the possibility of selling off Bitcoin, he acknowledged that while the firm’s former CEO, Michael Saylor, has consistently opposed selling, circumstances may change if the company’s stock trades below the net value of its Bitcoin holdings, which aligns with the recent actions taken by the firm.
Coinbase Analysts Predict December Recovery
Interestingly, while these institutional sell-offs have contributed to the current market dip, Coinbase’s institutional division has projected a potential recovery for the crypto market in December, citing improving liquidity, a 92% probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates, and supportive macroeconomic conditions.
Analysts have pointed out several reasons for optimism, including the recovery of liquidity, the resilience of the “AI bubble,” and the attractiveness of short US dollar trades at current levels.
However, OxNobler warned that the situation may not be so straightforward. Alongside the activities of major institutions, he noted that BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, had recently sold $130 million worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH).
Furthermore, Vitalik Buterin, one of Ethereum’s co-founders, seems to have resumed selling Ethereum, with millions of ETH being moved from the foundation’s wallet through Gnosis Safe.
Ultimately, OxNobler asserts that these institutional activities may have a hand in manipulating crypto prices and preventing them from climbing to higher levels and key resistance points.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
A newly introduced bill in Indiana would require public retirement programs to offer Bitcoin-related investment options and would also limit how much power local governments have to restrict the use of digital assets.
The proposal was filed on Thursday by State Representative Kyle Pierce, a Republican from Anderson. Known as House Bill 1042, the legislation was presented during a meeting of the House Financial Institutions Committee.
It focuses on giving public workers access to cryptocurrency investments while setting clear legal boundaries around digital asset use, custody, payments, and mining.
Indiana Targets First-in-the-Nation Mandate for Bitcoin in Public Pensions
Under the bill, administrators of several state-run retirement and savings plans would be required to include cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds as standard investment choices.
It would also permit certain public pension funds to invest directly in crypto-linked ETFs and give the state treasurer authority to place funds from specific accounts into stablecoin-based ETFs.
Pierce said the bill is designed to give Indiana residents more financial flexibility as digital assets become a larger part of the broader economy.
He added that the legislation is intended to balance investment choice with regulatory guardrails while allowing the state to explore potential government use of blockchain technology through pilot programs.
The legislation goes beyond retirement investing and takes aim at local regulation. Cities and counties would be prohibited from passing rules that place “unreasonable” limits on digital assets if similar rules do not apply to traditional financial activity.
The bill adds clear safeguards for self-custody. It states that private digital asset keys could only be demanded through a court order and only when no other legal method of access is available.
It would also prevent local governments from zoning out mining facilities from industrial zones and would protect properly zoned residential mining activity.
If enacted, Indiana would become the first state in the country to require publicly managed retirement programs to provide Bitcoin exposure as a standard option.
While some states permit limited crypto investment flexibility, none currently mandate it.
U.S. States Expand Crypto Access in Pensions, Payments, and Property Laws
Other states have taken related but narrower steps. Oklahoma passed a law in 2024 protecting residents’ right to hold crypto in self-custody wallets and blocking special taxes on Bitcoin transactions.
The fund also holds roughly $13.6 million in Ethereum through the Grayscale Ethereum Trust. Wisconsin’s state investment board has also disclosed more than $387 million in Bitcoin ETF exposure.
At the federal level, broader regulatory efforts are also underway. Lawmakers are preparing new frameworks that could shape how states approach crypto policy, including updated guidance on 401(k) crypto exposure expected in 2026.
Strategy CEO Phong Le says the company’s newly built $1.44 billion cash reserve is designed to quiet investor anxiety over its ability to withstand a sharp downturn in Bitcoin.
Key Takeaways:
Strategy built a $1.44B cash reserve to ease investor fears about its ability to meet dividend and debt obligations.
The firm raised the funds in just eight and a half days, aiming to show it can still attract capital without selling any Bitcoin.
Strategy says it will only consider selling BTC if its stock falls below NAV.
Speaking on CNBC’s Power Lunch, Le said the move followed weeks of speculation about whether the firm could continue meeting its dividend and debt commitments if market conditions worsened.
“We’re very much a part of the crypto ecosystem and Bitcoin ecosystem,” Le said. “Which is why we decided a couple of weeks ago to start raising capital and putting US dollars on our balance sheet to get rid of this FUD.”
Strategy Builds Cash Buffer to Avoid Selling Bitcoin in Market Slump
The reserve, announced Monday and funded via a stock sale, is intended to secure at least 12 months of dividend payments, with plans to stretch that buffer to 24 months.
The company emphasized that the stock-funded buildup gives Strategy breathing room without having to sell any Bitcoin during a turbulent period for the market.
Concerns over Strategy’s dividend stability had grown louder in recent weeks as Bitcoin retreated from its highs.
Le acknowledged the market chatter but dismissed it as exaggerated. “We weren’t going to have an issue paying dividends, and we weren’t likely going to have to tap into selling our Bitcoin,” he said.
“But there was FUD that was put out there that we wouldn’t be able to meet our dividend obligations, which causes people to pile into a short Bitcoin bet.”
This afternoon, Phong Le, CEO of @Strategy, joined @CNBC@PowerLunch to discuss how $MSTR moves with bitcoin, how our USD reserve addresses recent FUD, the shifting Overton Window, key volatility drivers, and why bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains strong. pic.twitter.com/1t5hsfov0m
The CEO said raising $1.44 billion in just eight and a half days was intended as a direct response, showing the firm can still attract capital even in a downcycle.
“We did it to address the FUD, and to show people we’re still able to raise money when Bitcoin is under pressure.”
Last week, Le said Strategy would only consider selling Bitcoin if the stock dropped below net asset value and the company lost the ability to raise additional funds.
Strategy has also introduced a new “BTC Credit” dashboard, which it says shows the company holds enough assets to service dividends for more than 70 years.
Strategy Adopts Dual-Reserve Model as BTC Buying Slows
As reported, Strategy has shifted from its long-standing “buy Bitcoin at all costs” approach to a dual-reserve treasury model that pairs long-term BTC holdings with a growing dollar buffer.
The move follows a dramatic slowdown in the firm’s accumulation pace, from 134,000 BTC per month at its 2024 peak to just 9,100 BTC in November, signaling preparation for a potentially prolonged bear market.
Despite the slowdown, the company remains one of the world’s largest Bitcoin holders, with roughly 650,000 BTC on its balance sheet.
Strive, a Nasdaq-listed firm and the 14th-largest public holder of Bitcoin, is pushing back against MSCI’s plan to remove companies with significant digital-asset exposure from its global indexes.
Key Takeaways:
Strive says MSCI’s plan to exclude crypto-heavy firms would shut investors out of key growth sectors.
JPMorgan warns Strategy could face up to $2.8B in losses under the proposal.
Strive argues BTC-focused firms are vital to AI infrastructure and structured finance, making the cutoff unfair.
In a letter addressed to MSCI chairman and CEO Henry Fernandez, the company warned that the proposal, which would exclude firms whose crypto holdings exceed 50% of total assets, risks shutting passive investors out of fast-growing corners of the market.
JPMorgan Warns Strategy Could Lose $2.8B Under MSCI Proposal
JPMorgan analysts recently cautioned that Strategy, a prominent Bitcoin treasury company included in the MSCI World Index, could face as much as $2.8 billion in losses if the exclusion moves forward.
Strategy’s chair, Michael Saylor, has confirmed that discussions with MSCI are ongoing as the company attempts to head off the decision.
Strive CEO Matt Cole argued that the proposal misunderstands the role large Bitcoin-focused firms play in emerging industries, particularly artificial intelligence.
He noted that miners such as MARA Holdings, Riot Platforms, and Hut 8, all potential exclusion targets, are rapidly expanding into AI infrastructure by retooling data centers for high-intensity compute workloads.
“Many analysts argue that the AI race is increasingly limited by access to power, not semiconductors,” Cole wrote, adding that miners are uniquely positioned to meet those needs.
Even as AI revenue increases, he said, companies will continue holding sizable Bitcoin reserves, meaning MSCI’s exclusion would permanently wall off a sector positioned at the intersection of digital assets and next-generation computing.
Cole also pointed to the rising demand for Bitcoin-linked financial products. Firms such as Strategy and Metaplanet function similarly to banks offering structured BTC notes, providing equity-based access to Bitcoin performance without requiring investors to hold the asset directly.
Excluding these treasury companies, he argued, would give traditional financial institutions, including JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs, an uneven playing field, as index-linked capital would become biased against firms whose business models center on Bitcoin exposure.
Strive Says MSCI’s 50% Rule Would Cause Index “Whiplash”
Strive further challenged the practicality of MSCI’s 50% threshold, noting that tying index eligibility to a volatile asset would cause companies to drift in and out of benchmarks, increasing tracking errors for funds that follow them.
Cole highlighted Trump Media & Technology Group as an example. Despite holding one of the largest public Bitcoin treasuries, it narrowly avoided MSCI’s preliminary exclusion list because its BTC exposure currently sits just under the cutoff.
Instead of a blanket rule, Strive proposed a parallel “ex-digital asset treasury” version of MSCI’s indexes.
This would allow asset managers who wish to avoid crypto-heavy companies to do so, while others could maintain exposure to the full investable universe.
MSCI has not yet indicated whether it will revise its proposal, but industry pressure is mounting as treasury-heavy firms await a final decision.
As explained by Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish in an X post, Bitcoin investors have been showing a lot less distribution at the recent price levels. The on-chain indicator of relevance here is the “Accumulation Trend Score,” which tells us about whether BTC holders are buying or selling.
The metric tracks investor behavior using not just the changes happening in their wallet balance, but also accounting for the size of their wallets. This means that larger entities have a higher influence on the score.
When the value of the Accumulation Trend Score is greater than 0.5, it means the investors are displaying a net trend of accumulation. On the other hand, it being under the threshold suggests the dominance of distribution.
Now, here is the chart shared by Beamish that shows how the Accumulation Trend Score has changed for the different Bitcoin investor segments over the last few years:
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score has reflected a varied behavior for the different investor segments during the last couple of months, but very recently, a uniform picture has started to develop.
The smallest of investors in the market, those holding less than 1 BTC, started participating in aggressive accumulation around the time of BTC’s low in November and have since maintained the indicator nearly at a perfect value of 1. This suggests that retail investors have been buying the dip.
Meanwhile, the 100 to 1,000 BTC traders, popularly called the sharks, have been accumulating throughout the drawdown that has followed since the early October peak, indicating that these investors haven’t lost conviction despite the deep decline.
The story is a bit different for the whale cohorts, however. The 10,000+ BTC holders, corresponding to the largest of hands on the network, were in a phase of distribution between August and November, but they have finally started accumulating since the price low, although the Accumulation Trend Score isn’t as high as the retail investors in their case.
The 1,000 to 10,000 BTC whale group didn’t stop distributing even after the bottom, but very recently, their score has just breached the 0.5 mark. With this, a uniform behavior has begun to appear on the Bitcoin blockchain, with investors as a whole opting to expand their wallet balance.
It now remains to be seen how long this trend of accumulation will continue.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has faced a drop of more than 3% over the last 24 hours that has taken its price to $89,300.
Many in the crypto space have echoed a familiar sentiment over recent months: “The four-year crypto market cycle is dead.” Experts from the Bull Theory assert that while the four-year cycle may have come to an end, the Bitcoin bull run itself is merely delayed and could stretch until 2027.
Why The Four-Year Cycle May Be Ending
In a recent post on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, the Bull Theory analysts noted that the concept of Bitcoin adhering to a neat four-year cycle is weakening.
They highlighted that significant price movements over the last decade weren’t solely driven by Halving events; rather, they were influenced by shifts in global liquidity.
The analysts pointed to the current landscape of stablecoin liquidity, which remains high despite recent downturns, indicating that larger investors are still engaged in the market, poised to invest when appropriate macroeconomic conditions arise.
In the US, Treasury policies are emerging as pivotal catalysts. The recent buybacks are notable, but the analysts emphasize that the larger narrative lies in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which is currently around $940 billion—almost $90 billion above its normal range.
This surplus cash is likely to flow back into the financial system, enhancing financing conditions and adding liquidity that typically gravitates toward risk assets.
Globally, the trends appear even more promising. China has been injecting liquidity for several months, while Japan recently announced a stimulus package worth approximately $135 billion, alongside efforts to simplify cryptocurrency regulations.
Canada is also moving toward easing its monetary policy, and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has officially halted its quantitative tightening (QT) measures—a historical precursor to some form of liquidity expansion.
Political And Monetary Factors Align To Create Bullish Condition
The analysts explained that when major economies adopt expansive monetary policies simultaneously, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to respond more rapidly than traditional stocks or broader markets.
Additionally, potential policy tools, such as the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption—implemented in 2020 to allow banks more flexibility in expanding their balance sheets—could return, resulting in increased credit creation and overall market liquidity.
There is also a political dimension to consider. President Trump has discussed potential tax reforms, including abolishing income tax and distributing $2,000 tariff dividends.
Furthermore, the likelihood of a new Federal Reserve chair who supports liquidity assistance and is constructive toward cryptocurrency could bolster conditions for economic growth.
Extended Bitcoin Uptrend
Historically, whenever the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (ISM PMI) surpasses 55, it has been followed by periods of altcoin season. The probability of this occurring in 2026 appears high, according to the Bull Theory.
The convergence of rising stablecoin liquidity, the Treasury’s injection of cash back into markets, global quantitative easing, the cessation of QT in the US, potential bank-lending relief, pro-market policy shifts in 2026, and major players entering the crypto sector suggests a very different scenario than the old four-year halving model.
The analysts concluded that if liquidity expands concurrently across the US, Japan, China, Canada, and other significant economies, Bitcoin is unlikely to move counter to that trend.
Therefore, rather than experiencing a sharp rally followed by a prolonged bear market, the current environment indicates a more extended and broader uptrend that could span through 2026 and into 2027.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Despite the Bitcoin price recovery above the crucial $90,000 threshold—a level that has historically served as a supportive floor for the cryptocurrency—the market is exhibiting signs that a further correction may be imminent.
Bitcoin Price Recovery At Risk?
Market expert Rekt Fencer recently shared insights on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, suggesting that the Bitcoin price might be forming what he calls a “massive bull trap.”
This term refers to a deceptive bullish signal in which the price briefly surpasses a resistance level, in this case, the $90,000 mark, only to reverse into a decline. Such movements can entrap investors who bought in during the peak, leading to significant losses.
Fencer pointed out a troubling pattern reminiscent of early 2022 when Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average (MA)—currently positioned above $102,300—before experiencing a severe decline of roughly 60%, plummeting below $20,000 by June of that year.
He indicated that the recent price recovery following major drops to $84,000 should not be interpreted as a signal of near-term success, especially since the Bitcoin price is currently trading under the 50-week MA.
If historical trends repeat, this could mean that Bitcoin might see a significant drop, potentially reaching around $36,200, which could potentially represent the low point of the bearish cycle for the cryptocurrency. On the other hand, there are analysts who retain a bullish outlook.
BTC Bottom In Sight?
Market researcher and analyst Miles Deutscher expressed a confident sentiment, stating he believes there is a 91.5% likelihood that the Bitcoin price has hit its bottom, based on his analysis of key developments.
He noted that recent weeks have been dominated by negative news stories, including concerns surrounding Tether (USDT) and the implications of China’s actions on crypto, which he asserts often mark local price bottoms.
Moreover, Deutscher pointed out a shift in market flows from predominantly bearish to bullish. He explained that the trading environment has recently seen a resurgence in buying momentum, with large investors, or “OG whales,” ceasing their selling. This change has been reflected in the order books, indicating a possible stabilization in market sentiment.
Additionally, the liquidity landscape appears to be shifting, with market conditions tightening in recent months. The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair known for dovish policies, coupled with the official end of quantitative tightening (QT), could further influence market dynamics in favor of buyers.
Deutscher concluded by emphasizing that given the extreme levels of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) in the market, combined with improvements in trading flows, he believes that the odds favor the notion that the Bitcoin price has indeed reached its bottom.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
On 3rd December, official filings and press releases announced Twenty One Capital’s upcoming debut on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), positioning the company as one of the largest Bitcoin treasury firms ever to enter public markets. The listing brings a dedicated Bitcoin balance sheet into Wall Street’s core ecosystem, signaling a structural shift in how institutional investors can gain long-term BTC exposure.
A Bitcoin Treasury Giant Steps Onto The NYSE Stage
Twenty One Capital’s NYSE entry is anchored by its business combination with Cantor Equity Partners (CEP), the SPAC serving as the public-market vehicle for the transaction. CEP shareholders have already approved the merger, and the deal is expected to close around December 8. Once completed, the combined entity will operate as Twenty One Capital, Inc. and begin trading on December 9 under the ticker XXI.
The original announcement, released through official press channels and SEC-related filings, emphasized CEP’s central role in enabling the listing and establishing the company’s public-market structure. CEO Jack Mallers also highlighted the milestone on X, noting the company’s readiness for its debut.
According to this press announcement, Twenty One Capital will debut with an estimated 43,500 BTC, a reserve valued near $4 billion at recent market levels. This immediately places it among the top corporate Bitcoin treasuries globally. Unlike companies that hold Bitcoin as a secondary reserve, Twenty One is specifically engineered around a Bitcoin-native model. The firm intends to report “Bitcoin-per-share,” providing investors a transparent look at how much BTC each equity unit represents. It also pledges full, on-chain proof-of-reserves, positioning itself as a high-transparency asset custodian at launch.
This model effectively transforms Twenty One into a regulated balance-sheet wrapper for Bitcoin. It lowers operational friction for institutional allocators who want direct BTC exposure without the complexities of crypto custody, self-storage, or exchange-based acquisition. By listing on the NYSE rather than relying on ETFs or derivatives, Twenty One creates a regulated public equity vehicle that holds, safeguards, and transparently tracks Bitcoin for institutional and retail investors alike.
Wall Street’s New On-Ramp To Institutional BTC Exposure
The market impact of Twenty One’s listing reflects the accelerating integration of Bitcoin into mainstream financial architecture. The company’s backers—including Tether-linked entities, Bitfinex-aligned interests, SoftBank-connected capital, and Cantor’s public-markets network—provide a cross-sector foundation aimed at bridging crypto-native philosophies with institutional liquidity channels.
Under this structure, Twenty One aims to become a long-term institutional treasury vessel—a regulated balance sheet that accumulates BTC and gives investors an equity-linked way to participate in Bitcoin’s upside without engaging directly with crypto custody or trading infrastructure.
As the NYSE debut approaches, Twenty One Capital embodies a pivot point where BTC’s role in capital markets shifts from speculative asset to institutional treasury instrument. If XXI attracts sustained flow, it could set a new blueprint for how corporate entities engage with Bitcoin—anchoring Wall Street’s next phase of digital-asset adoption.
The Binance Blockchain Week event in Dubai became the center of a high-stakes showdown between traditional and digital innovation, with Bitcoin and gold going head-to-head. Investors, tech enthusiasts, and financial experts watched closely as Binance founder Changpeng Zhao expertly debated renowned Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff, making a compelling argument for why Bitcoin is better than gold.
Binance Founder Dominates Bitcoin And Gold Debate
During the Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai, Schiff and CZ faced off in a high-profile debate over the value of Bitcoin versus Gold. Schiff defended gold as a safe, stable, and tangible asset while the Binance founder made a compelling case for Bitcoin’s adoption, utility, value, and global reach.
Throughout the debate, which lasted over an hour, CZ consistently demonstrated the practical advantages of Bitcoin, leaving Schiff’s gold argument largely on the defensive. The Binance founder emphasized Bitcoin’s transparent and predictable supply and its role in the modern financial systems. He pointed to hundreds of millions of users who rely on Bitcoin for payments, savings, and transfers.
Schiff argued that Bitcoin lacks inherent value and is mainly driven by hype and faith that its price will rise. He stated that gold remains tangible, centuries old, scarce, and valuable in industry, making it superior to BTC. He further asserted that “nobody needs” Bitcoin and that the cryptocurrency is “backed by nothing.”
Practical demonstrations played a key role in the debate between Schiff and CZ. The Binance founder explained how Bitcoin and crypto payments already improve financial efficiency, especially in emerging markets. Schiff questioned whether these transactions truly count as money, since merchants ultimately receive traditional currency. CZ’s response highlighted the importance of adoption and network effects, noting that people who use BTC directly for payments give it real-world significance.
The debate also considered the preferences of younger generations. CZ asked Schiff whether millennials and Gen Z favoured Bitcoin or gold. The Bitcoin critic responded sharply, suggesting that they would choose gold. He pointed out that, with many young investors losing money on BTC, gold offers a safer, more appealing alternative. The Binance founder countered that younger people understand digital value more intuitively and prefer mobile, borderless, and censorship-resistant assets.
Digital Value And The Future Of Money
The debate between CZ and Schiff also highlighted the changing definition of money. Bitcoin functions as a decentralized network that enables instant settlement and transparent verification. Its adoption has also helped evolve the financial economy, facilitating faster and more seamless cross-border payments. Schiff argued that gold’s scarcity and industrial demand preserve its value and make it a reliable hedge against economic uncertainty.
Tokenization also became a point of agreement during the discussion, with Schiff emphasizing that gold can be digitized and tokenized for easier ownership and distribution without moving the physical metal. CZ contended that Bitcoin offers similar advantages while also enabling global financial inclusion. They also discussed the supply of both assets, with the Binance founder noting that Bitcoin has a visible supply, while gold doesn’t.
They also talked about the performance of both assets over the years. Schiff argued that gold had outperformed BTC over the past four years. CZ contended that Bitcoin has far outpaced gold over the last 8 years, and since its launch in 2009, it has skyrocketed from a few cents to an ATH above $126,000. He concluded his debate, predicting that Bitcoin’s growth will outpace gold over time.
Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher has issued one of the most forceful bottom calls of this cycle, assigning a 91.5% probability that Bitcoin’s low is already in. In a X thread on December 4, he wrote: “F*ck it. I’m putting my neck on the line here. I’m 91.5% certain that the BTC bottom is in. And if it is, A LOT of people are about to be caught offside.”
Is The Bitcoin Bottom In?
Deutscher bases his conviction on four “pillars”: market reaction to news, the historical behaviour of FUD events, a shift in flows, and an improving global liquidity backdrop. Each pillar is scored in an internal model that culminates in a 91.5/100 bullish reading.
He starts with price behaviour versus headlines. Over recent days, he notes, the market has digested an “influx of bad news” – including renewed Tether FUD, another round of “China banning crypto,” MicroStrategy scrutiny and concerns around a Bank of Japan–driven yen carry trade unwind.
“Despite all this bad news, price rallied,” he writes, calling this “the first time since the major selloff began” that Bitcoin has responded positively to a destructive news cycle. He underscores an old trading adage: “The reaction to news is more important than the news itself. This tells you everything you need to know.”
The second pillar is a systematic look at whether such FUD clusters tend to coincide with local lows. Deutscher says he backtested “every single time Tether, China, BOJ, and Microstrategy FUD entered the market” in a similar way. His conclusion is stark: “Every single time, these FUD events marked a local bottom. Tether FUD = bottom.
China ‘banning’ crypto = bottom. Bank of Japan/carry trade concerns = bottom. Microstrategy FUD = bottom.”
On this basis, his AI model assigns the maximum score of 28/28 to this pillar. He cautions that “in isolation, this factor doesn’t matter much,” but argues that, combined with the first pillar, it “starts to paint a convincing bull case.”
The third pillar is flows, which he calls “the most critical factor (net buy/sell pressure).” For the past weeks, flows were “aggressively negative” with OG whales selling and ETFs dumping. Recently, he argues, this picture has changed. ETF inflows are “starting to stabilise & uptick,” treasury-company holdings remain stable, and “OG whales have stopped relentlessly dumping (this is clear on the orderbooks).” This earns a 22.5/25 score in his model. He adds one key caveat: as long as DATs exist, “there are material risks.”
The fourth pillar is the liquidity and macro environment. Deutscher notes that market liquidity had been tightening for months, but now “things are shifting back toward increased market liquidity,” with global financial conditions “reloosened to near highs.” He highlights “macro tailwinds” and adds that a new, potentially more dovish Fed chair is coming and “QT has now officially ended.” This set of factors receives a 9/10 score in his framework.
Aggregating all four pillars leads to the headline figure: “With all four market pillars taken into account, we arrive at a final score of 91.5/100.”
Deutscher, however, explicitly lists caveats. He points out that US markets “have been on a massive run” and may need to cool off, that DATs “are still seeing some short-term pressure,” and that ETF flows “can flip negative at any time.” His conclusion is probabilistic rather than absolute: “Markets are a game of probabilities, and I think the odds are in favour of the bottom being in – given the extreme FUD we’ve had and the market’s reaction to it.”
The Bitcoin price volatility is once again drawing attention to MicroStrategy, the company whose strategy has become a major market reference point, with billions in accumulated BTC and a track record of aggressive buying during downturns. As traders search for stability in a shaky market, Strategy’s stance is being watched closely for what it might signal about the next phase of BTC’s trend.
Why MicroStrategy’s Next Move Could Redirect Market Momentum
Bitcoin’s recent volatility has put MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of BTC, in the limelight. Walter Bloomberg has revealed on X that analysts are watching closely to see if the company could influence the cryptocurrency’s price if it sells some of its holdings.
According to JPMorgan, Strategy can avoid forced sales as long as its enterprise value-to-BTC holdings ratio stays above 1.0, which currently stands at 1.13 BTC. However, analysts continue to debunk these claims, accusing JPMorgan of spreading misinformation about market manipulation and the company.
Walter stated that if the ratio remains above this level, BTC markets may stabilize and ease recent market pressure. Due to the market pressure, the firm has slowed its BTC purchases, adding 9,062 BTC last month compared to 134,480 BTC a year ago, reflecting a more cautious accumulation approach amid a broader crypto downturn. Its stock has dropped roughly 42% over the past three months.
Additionally, challenges include the potential exclusion from MSCI indices, which could trigger $8.8 billion in passive fund outflows if index funds are forced to divest. However, MicroStrategy holds a $1.4 billion reserve for dividends and interest, helping it avoid selling its BTC even if the price falls further. In the meantime, there is no proof that MicroStrategy is in danger of liquidation.
How Institutional Behavior Builds A Higher Floor For Bitcoin
In a market speculation, Bitcoin is currently experiencing one of the most significant capital migrations in its history, fueled by institutional adoption. Analyst Matthew noted that the current BTC market cycle from 2022 to 2025 has already absorbed an unprecedented amount of new capital, surpassing all previous BTC cycles. This growth is a reflection of the market’s maturity and the ecosystem’s innovative approach to liquidity through regulated instruments.
Furthermore, the network has incorporated more than $732 billion in fresh capital in the current cycle, surpassing the $388 billion that was injected during the 2018 to 2022 cycle. At that time, the surge helped push BTC market capitalization to an all-time high record of $1.1 trillion, a metric that indicates a much higher aggregate cost base for new institutional investors.
Meanwhile, the total settlement volume in the decentralized BTC protocol was approximately $6.9 trillion in just 90 days. Despite this, the number of active on-chain entities dropped from 240,000 to 170,000 per day, which is a reflection of liquidity migration of capital flows into spot ETFs.
Bitcoin has been struggling to build momentum in recent weeks, and the return of cash into the system is raising questions about whether this could be the moment that changes the tone of the crypto market. That growing sense of anticipation has already started to show up in prices, with the total crypto market cap climbing more than $250 billion from its $3.016 trillion low on December 2.
What Happened: The Liquidity Injection And Why It Matters
After officially bringing its multi-year quantitative tightening (QT) program to an end, the central bank followed up with a $13.5 billion overnight repo operation, funneled through the New York Fed. Banks brought $13.5 billion in Treasuries to the Fed, the Fed accepted all of it, and instantly injected $13.5 billion of fresh reserves into the system.
The move, which is the second-largest liquidity injection since the COVID-19 crisis, effectively puts an end the steady shrinkage of bank reserves that has persisted for years, easing pressure on short-term funding markets and signaling a more accommodative liquidity environment.
The crypto market responded almost instantly. A handful of major assets began turning green within hours of the injection, with Bitcoin leading the charge with an instant break above $92,000.
The influx was visible at a macro level as well: the total crypto market cap climbed from a December 2 low of $3.016 trillion to $3.269 trillion by December 4. A gain of more than $250 billion in under 48 hours
What Investors Should Watch Next
Ending QT leads to better liquidity and often create a bullish environment for equities and other riskier investments like cryptocurrencies. However, although a single liquidity event does not guarantee a sustained multi-month rally, this injection stands out not just for its size but for what it represents.
In a CNBC interview, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee stated that the Fed’s decision to stop QT will be a turning point for the cryptocurrency market. Lee pointed out that the last time the Fed ended QT, the market rose about 17% within three weeks.
The previous time the Fed brought quantitative tightening to a stop was in July 2019, roughly a year after it began reducing its balance sheet. In the three weeks that followed, the S&P 500 climbed about 5%. Bitcoin’s also initially rallied in the same period, but its strongest reaction came months after, towards late 2019 and early 2020.
Bitcoin is holding firmly above the $92,000 level after several days of relief and a stronger-than-expected rebound across the market. Yet despite the positive price action, analysts remain deeply divided. Some interpret this move as a classic relief rally within a broader downtrend, warning that the macro structure still favors a deeper correction.
Others see the recent recovery as the first sign that Bitcoin may be stabilizing and preparing for another bullish phase. The uncertainty reflects the conflicting signals coming from both derivatives and spot markets.
Adding fuel to the discussion, new on-chain data from Arkham shows that Matrixport withdrew 3,805 BTC—worth approximately $352.5 million—from Binance within the last 24 hours. This is a significant development, as Matrixport is one of Asia’s largest crypto financial service platforms, founded by Jihan Wu, the co-founder of Bitmain. The firm provides institutional-grade investment products, lending, trading, and asset management solutions to high-net-worth clients and funds across the region.
Large withdrawals from exchanges by institutions like Matrixport often signal accumulation, reduced selling pressure, or repositioning for custody and long-term holding. Combined with Bitcoin’s stabilization above $92K, this data adds an important layer of complexity to the current market outlook.
Institutional Positioning and a Changing Macro Landscape
Matrixport’s withdrawal of 3,805 BTC from Binance signals a potentially meaningful shift in institutional positioning. Large entities rarely move this size of capital without intention. Such withdrawals typically imply reduced selling pressure and a preference for custody over exchange liquidity, often interpreted as quiet accumulation.
For a firm managing billions in client assets, reallocating Bitcoin off exchanges suggests growing confidence in medium-term price stability or an expectation of improving market conditions.
This move arrives at a pivotal moment in the global macro environment. The Federal Reserve has ended Quantitative Tightening (QT), marking a major transition from liquidity withdrawal to a more accommodative stance. Historically, the end of QT has preceded periods of asset reflation, as systemic liquidity begins to stabilize.
At the same time, Japanese bond yields have surged, signaling stress in one of the world’s most influential funding markets. A spike in Japanese yields often triggers global liquidity adjustments, particularly through the carry trade, which can ultimately redirect capital toward risk assets—including Bitcoin.
Additionally, markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon, further easing financial conditions. Lower rates weaken the dollar, reduce funding costs, and typically stimulate inflows into alternative and high-beta assets.
In this environment of softening monetary policy and rising liquidity, Matrixport’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation could reflect growing institutional conviction that the worst of the downturn is behind us—and that Bitcoin may be entering a more favorable macro phase.
BTC Price Analysis: Testing Recovery Momentum
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the market attempting to stabilize after the sharp decline that pushed price toward the mid-$80,000s. The rebound into the $91K–$93K zone marks the first meaningful recovery attempt, but the structure still reflects caution.
BTC remains below the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, which have both started to slope downward, signaling that the broader trend has not yet shifted back in favor of the bulls. Until Bitcoin reclaims these moving averages with strong volume, the market will likely see this move as a relief rally rather than a confirmed reversal.
Price is currently consolidating above the 200-day SMA, a level that often acts as a long-term trend gauge. Holding this region is essential; losing it would risk a deeper drop toward earlier support zones near $82K–$84K. Volume activity during the bounce shows some improvement, yet it remains far below the levels seen during the late-October peak, suggesting that buyers are cautious and large players are not fully engaged.
The chart also shows a clear lower-high structure forming since September, confirming the bearish pressure that has dominated the last several weeks. For sentiment to shift decisively, BTC must break above $95K and rebuild momentum toward the psychological $100K mark. Until then, volatility and hesitation remain the defining features of this recovery.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is trading around $91,000 after a minor dip earlier today, and uncertainty continues to dominate sentiment. The market sits at a crossroads: a small but vocal group of analysts argues that the recent correction served as a healthy reset before a continuation of the broader uptrend, while the majority of traders believe the first leg of a new bear market is already underway. With price action still showing hesitation, the debate grows louder by the day.
According to top analyst Darkfost, a critical threshold will help determine Bitcoin’s next major direction. He highlights the importance of the Realized Price of the youngest Long-Term Holder (LTH) band, which currently sits at $96,956. This metric marks the transition point between short-term and long-term holders and is viewed as a psychological and structural barrier for market stability.
Reclaiming this level would push these young LTHs back into a comfortable profit zone, reducing their incentive to sell and helping to restore confidence across the market. Until Bitcoin closes decisively above $97K, Darkfost warns that caution is warranted, as volatility remains high and the risk of further downside persists.
Why the $97K Threshold Matters for Bitcoin’s Next Major Move
Darkfost emphasizes that the $96,956–$97,000 zone plays a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin’s next phase. This level represents the Realized Price of the youngest Long-Term Holder band, meaning it reflects the average cost basis of investors who recently transitioned from short-term to long-term holding behavior. When Bitcoin trades below this threshold, these holders sit at an unrealized loss, increasing the likelihood of panic selling and adding pressure to the market.
Breaking above this zone would flip sentiment for this group almost immediately. Darkfost explains that reclaiming $97K would place these investors back into a comfortable profit position, restoring their confidence and expectations of potential gains. Once this psychological weight lifts, these holders typically choose to keep accumulating rather than selling, which naturally brings more stability to the market.
However, he cautions that Bitcoin’s failure to close above $97,000 keeps the risk tilted to the downside. As long as the price remains below this band, the market stays vulnerable, and volatility may continue.
Even if BTC successfully reclaims $97K, Darkfost reminds that this is only the first step. The market would still need stronger structural confirmation—such as reclaiming key moving averages and rebuilding demand—to validate a true bullish reversal that could eventually lead to a new all-time high.
BTC Weekly Structure Shows Early Signs of Stabilization
Bitcoin’s weekly chart reflects a market trying to stabilize after a sharp multi-week correction that dragged the price from above $115,000 down toward the mid-$80,000s. The latest weekly candle shows a firm rebound from the 100-week moving average (green line), now acting as dynamic support around the $84,000–$86,000 region. This level historically attracts long-term buyers, and the strong wick rejection confirms renewed demand.
BTC is currently trading near $91,300, sitting just below the 50-week moving average (blue line), which now acts as resistance. A clean reclaim of this moving average—currently positioned around $95K–$97K—would significantly improve the technical outlook and align with on-chain signals calling for a recovery. Until then, the trend remains neutral-to-bearish on higher timeframes.
Volume during the recent bounce stands out, showing one of the strongest buying reactions since early 2025. This suggests that long-term holders and institutional buyers may be stepping in as the price approaches key value zones.
However, Bitcoin is not out of danger. Failures to break above $97K would leave the structure vulnerable to another leg down, potentially retesting $86K or even deeper liquidity pockets around $80K.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has logged its longest stretch of weekly withdrawals since the fund launched in January 2024, marking a sharp turn in institutional sentiment toward Bitcoin even as prices steady.
Key Takeaways:
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has entered its longest outflow streak to date, with over $2.7 billion withdrawn in five weeks.
The reversal follows October’s sharp crypto-market liquidation, which erased more than $1 trillion in value and halted IBIT’s months of steady inflows.
Analysts warn the trend signals weakening institutional appetite.
Redemptions continued on Thursday with an additional $113 million, putting the ETF on track for a sixth consecutive week of outflows.
IBIT Faces Reversal as Crypto Wipeout Ends Months of Steady Inflows
IBIT, which manages more than $71 billion in assets, has been the flagship vehicle for traditional investors seeking regulated exposure to Bitcoin.
However, flows have reversed direction since early October, when a violent liquidation across crypto markets triggered a sell-off that erased more than $1 trillion in digital-asset value.
The shift stands in contrast to the steady inflows that helped propel Bitcoin higher earlier in the year.
Last week, speaking in São Paulo, BlackRock business development director Cristiano Castro said the company’s Bitcoin ETFs had become one of its strongest revenue engines, calling their rapid ascent “a big surprise” as investor allocations surged throughout the year.
Castro also downplayed outflow concerns, noting that “ETFs are very liquid and powerful instruments.”
“What we’ve been seeing is perfectly normal; any asset that starts to experience compression usually has this effect, especially in an instrument that is heavily controlled by retail investors,” he added.
Bitcoin has clawed back some losses this week, but analysts say ETF flows paint a clearer picture of institutional caution.
In a recent report, Glassnode wrote that the outflow streak “marks a clear reversal from the persistent inflow regime that supported price earlier in the year, and reflects a cooling of new capital allocation into the asset.”
The firm noted that investor positioning has become more defensive as volatility and funding pressure remain elevated.
Despite the turbulence, Bitcoin traded around $92,000 in London on Friday morning, still down 27% from its October peak.
Spot Chainlink ETF Pulls $41M on First Day
As reported, Grayscale’s first US spot exchange-traded fund tied to Chainlink opened with solid demand, adding another data point to the debate over whether appetite for altcoins can survive a cooling crypto market.
The figures placed Chainlink among the stronger ETF launches this year and suggested that, at least for some investors, regulated vehicles remain the preferred route into higher-risk digital assets.
The new Chainlink ETF comes amid the rollout of a wave of new altcoin ETFs.
Over the past month, issuers have launched products tied to Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin, with more XRP and Dogecoin funds set to list next week.
The Canary Capital XRP ETF (XRPC) debuted with $58 million in net inflows, the highest opening-day haul for any ETF this year, edging out the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL), which launched with $57 million.
After a brief moment of bullish performance in Bitcoin, the price experienced a sudden pullback due to a broader market shakedown, which caused BTC to revisit the $90,000 threshold. While this pullback has sparked a frenzy in the cryptocurrency community, on-chain data has revealed a shocking trend about the sudden pullback.
True Capitulation, Not A Routine Bitcoin Pullback
The market was rocked by a recent decline in the price of Bitcoin, but this pullback comes with an extra layer. Alphractal, an advanced investment and on-chain data analytics platform, has shed crucial insights about the decline using several key indicators to determine the unseen trend.
After carrying out its research, the on-chain platform revealed that the latest Bitcoin drop was not just another correction, but a clear instance of a capitulation event. This abrupt turnaround seems to have embodied all the characteristics of a full-scale capitulation event. These include an emotional flush-out when panic selling, forced liquidations, and intense dread came together in one dramatic moment.
Alphractal’s reading is backed by three major signals that rarely show up together, suggesting a pivotal moment for BTC. Such a trend may be the turning point that reshapes the short-term trajectory of the crypto king.
The first signal highlighted by the platform comes from the Bitcoin Hash Rate, which has witnessed a steady decline over the last 30 days. Presently, miners are turning off their machines, triggering heightened pressure on the ecosystem. When miners begin to lose money, it typically implies that the market might have reached its peak.
Another signal is coming from the BTC price drawdown. After a fast, violent drop, the metric is hitting extreme levels beyond the historical median. This is not just a technical drop, but it’s pain, triggered by forced selling and liquidation.
A Rare Trend And A Good Entry Opportunity
Finally, the last signal is the recent spike in active supply as those holding BTC for months or years have begun spending their coins. A behavior of this kind only unfolds when investors exhibit heightened caution, causing sentiment to drop.
An interesting aspect about this trend is that when these 3 signals flash in unison, the Capitulation Oscillator tends to rise. This is a moment that nearly always denotes the conclusion of a downward trend or a leveling phase, as was the case in 2021.
While it has played out in previous scenarios, it is not a guarantee of an immediate bottom. However, moments like these have historically been uncommon and frequently present opportunities that only occur once or twice every cycle, especially for those rooted in on-chain data.
Joao Wedson, the founder of Alphractal, also confirms these signals, which point to real capitulation. According to Wedson, the recent correction was the most severe capitulation event since 2022.
Nonetheless, this has traditionally led to the formation of long accumulation regions before the price makes its next macro direction. In other words, Wedson noted that the highest probability scenario is that 2025 will end in a broad sideways range; a classic phase of accumulation or redistribution.
After nearly a full week of rising prices, the crypto market is down today, with the cryptocurrency market capitalisation falling by 1.1%, now standing at $3.23 trillion. 90 of the top 100 coins have gone up over the past 24 hours. At the same time, the total crypto trading volume is at $114 billion.
TLDR:
Crypto market cap fell by 1.1% on Friday morning (UTC);
90 of the top 100 coins and 9 of the top 10 coins have gone down today;
BTC decreased by 1.2% to $92,227, and ETH is down by 0.6% to $3,169;
The current structure remains highly sensitive to macro shocks;
Holding $96,000–$106,000 is critical to avoid further downside;
The US will release the September PCE inflation data today;
Woori Bank began displaying BTC prices inside its main trading room in Seoul;
Both US BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw outflows on Thursday, with $194.64 million and $41.75 million, respectively;
Strategy earmarked a $1.44 billion US dollar reserve as a liquidity buffer;
Crypto market sentiment pulls back again.
Crypto Winners & Losers
At the time of writing, all top 10 coins per market capitalization have seen their prices rise over the past 24 hours. Two recorded double-digit increases.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.2% since this time yesterday, currently trading at $92,227.
Bitcoin (BTC)
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Ethereum (ETH) is down by 0.6%, now changing hands at $3,169. This is the smallest decrease among the ten.
XRP saw the highest fall, going down by 3.9% to $2.09.
Meanwhile, major Korean Woori Bank has begun displaying BTC prices inside its main trading room in Seoul. This is the first time a commercial bank in the country has integrated a crypto price feed directly into its main dealing space.
“As digital assets continue to grow in prominence and influence in global financial markets, we determined that they should be monitored as a key indicator to better read overall market trends,” an official said.
SOUTH KOREAN BANKING GIANT WOORI BANK JUST STARTED DISPLAYING #BITCOIN PRICE IN THEIR DEALING ROOM
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin stabilized above the critical valuation anchor, the True Market Mean (the cost basis of all non-dormant coins).
“This level often marks the dividing line between a mild bearish phase and a deep bear market,” the analysts explain.
However, the broader market structure is still increasingly mirroring the dynamics of Q1 2022, with over 25% of supply underwater.
“This creates a fragile balance between the risk of top-buyer capitulation and the potential for seller exhaustion to form a bottom. Nevertheless, the current structure remains highly sensitive to macro shocks until the market can reclaim the 0.85 quantile (~$106.2K) as support.”
Importantly, holding $96,000–$106,000 is critical to avoid further downside, says the report.
Furthermore, Bitunix analysts noted that the US will release the September PCE inflation data today. The result will directly influence the December rate decision. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut currently stands at 87%, the analysts say.
Ahead of this release, “the market has entered a compressed-volatility, wait-and-see structure, with BTC’s key battleground concentrated between $91,000–$95,000. If the data confirm continued disinflation, the probability of a year-end rebound will rise; otherwise, the choppy structure is likely to persist, with capital flows shifting back toward defensive and short-duration positioning.”
Levels & Events to Watch Next
At the time of writing on Friday morning, BTC stood at $92,227. It started the day with the high of $93,577, gradually decreasing to the current price. Very briefly, it fell to the intraday low of $91,029.
Looking at the past week, we’ve seen the price increase just below 1%. In this period, BTC moved between $84,553 and $93,855.
If the price continues falling, it could go back to the $90,000 level, possibly below. On the other hand, a bullish shift could push it to $96,500 and towards the $100,000 mark.
Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: TradingView
Ethereum is currently changing hands at $3,169. It initially jumped to the intraday high of $3,217 before briefly plunging to the low of $3,076. It has recovered quickly.
ETH has outperformed BTC in the 1-week timeframe. It’s up 5%, trading in the $2,736-$3,222 range.
A bullish breakout of the $3,350 resistance could confirm a bullish trend reversal. This would clear a path for the price to move above $3,500 and then towards $4,000. However, should the decline continue, we may see a pullback towards $2,900.
Ethereum (ETH)
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Meanwhile, after a couple of days of increases, the crypto market sentiment reversed course and dropped again within the fear territory. The crypto fear and greed index stands at 25 today, compared to 27 yesterday.
Given the level of uncertainty among the market participants at the moment, it wouldn’t be surprising if the index drops back into the extreme fear zone. It would take a significant push from major macroeconomic news for it to quickly move out of the fear and into the neutral zone in the short term. Therefore, it will likely take time.
ETFs Go Red
On Thursday, 4 December, the US BTC spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw a second straight day of outflows with $194.64 million. The total net inflow pulled back to $57.56 billion.
Of the twelve BTC ETFs, five recorded outflows, and none saw inflows. BlackRock accounts for the majority of the negative flows, letting go of $112.96 million. Fidelity follows with $54.2 million.
The US ETH ETFs also posted negative flows on Thursday. They saw $41.75 million in outflows. The total net inflow now stands at $12.95 billion.
Of the nine funds, one recorded inflows, and three saw outflows. BlackRock took in $28.35 million, while Grayscale let go of $30.96 million.
Notably, Strategy, the world’s largest corporate BTC holder, has earmarked a $1.44 billion US dollar reserve as a liquidity buffer against a prolonged market downturn. CryptoQuant argues that this move signals preparation for a potential bear market phase.
Strategy said it may also sell BTC or BTC derivatives as part of its risk-management toolkit if market conditions deteriorate.
Strategy’s Bitcoin buying has collapsed through 2025.
Monthly purchases fell from 134K BTC at the 2024 peak to just 9.1K BTC in November 2025, only 135 BTC so far this month.
A 24-month buffer makes one thing clear: they’re bracing for the bear market. pic.twitter.com/qEwXR3JQ82
Meanwhile, quantitative trading firm Jane Street took a stake in the company called Antithesis, which claims to have strengthened the Ethereum blockchain. Jane Street led the company’s Series A funding round, where it received $105 million in total.
Quick FAQ
Why did crypto move with stocks today?
The crypto market recorded a decrease over the past 24 hours, while the US stock market saw a mixed session on Thursday. By the closing time on 4 December, the S&P 500 was up by 0.11%, the Nasdaq-100 decreased by 0.097%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.067%. This followed a fresh set of data on the US labour market and preceded a key inflation reading set for today.
Is this drop sustainable?
Minor drops are common for the markets, and today’s is not out of the ordinary. Analysts argue that we could still see the rally continue, at least in the next few weeks, unless the market is hit by a major macro shock.
JPMorgan analysts say the near-term direction of Bitcoin’s price now depends less on miner behavior and more on the financial resilience of Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, even as mining pressure and market volatility persist.
In a report led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the bank identified two forces currently weighing on Bitcoin. The first is a recent decline in Bitcoin’s network hashrate and mining difficulty.
The second is the growing market focus on Strategy’s balance sheet and its ability to avoid selling its Bitcoin holdings during the ongoing market downturn.
High-Cost Bitcoin Miners Capitulate as Hashrate Slips and Margins Collapse
The decline in hashrate reflects a combination of China reiterating its ban on private mining activity and high-cost miners outside the country retreating as falling Bitcoin prices and elevated electricity costs squeeze profitability.
JPMorgan now estimates Bitcoin’s production cost at $90,000, down from $94,000 last month. The estimate assumes electricity priced at $0.05 per kilowatt hour, with every $0.01 increase adding roughly $18,000 to production costs for higher-cost miners.
With Bitcoin trading near $92,000, JPMorgan said the asset continues to hover close to its estimated production cost, creating sustained selling pressure from miners.
As profits tighten, several high-cost producers have been forced to liquidate Bitcoin holdings in recent weeks to remain solvent.
Despite those pressures, JPMorgan said miners are no longer the key driver of Bitcoin’s next major move. Instead, attention has shifted to Strategy’s ability to maintain its Bitcoin position without being forced into sales.
Strategy’s enterprise-value-to-Bitcoin-holdings ratio currently stands at 1.13. That figure reflects the combined market value of its debt, preferred stock, and equity relative to the market value of its Bitcoin treasury.
According to JPMorgan, the fact that the ratio remains above 1.0 is “encouraging” because it shows that Strategy is unlikely to face pressure to sell Bitcoin to meet interest or dividend obligations.
The reserve is designed to cover dividend payments and interest expenses for at least 12 months, with the company targeting coverage of up to 24 months.
JPMorgan said the reserve significantly reduces the risk of forced Bitcoin sales in the foreseeable future.
JPMorgan Sees $170K Bitcoin Scenario Despite Strategy’s MSCI Index Risk
Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation has slowed sharply in recent months, though it remains deeply exposed to price movements.
In November, it added 8,178 BTC in its largest purchase since July, bringing total holdings to roughly 650,000 BTC. Its basic market capitalization stands near $54 billion, with an enterprise value of about $69 billion.
Markets are also watching an upcoming decision by MSCI on whether to remove Strategy and other digital-asset treasury companies from its equity indices. JPMorgan said the downside risk from exclusion is largely priced in.
JPMorgan estimates that an MSCI exclusion could trigger $2.8 billion in passive outflows, with as much as $8.8 billion at risk if other index providers follow suit.
Even so, the bank said further downside would likely be limited. By contrast, if MSCI keeps Strategy in major indices, JPMorgan said both Strategy and Bitcoin could rebound sharply toward pre-October levels.
Beyond corporate balance sheets, JPMorgan continues to point to broader crypto market structure for longer-term upside. The bank said perpetual futures deleveraging appears largely complete following record liquidations in October.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s volatility ratio relative to gold has improved, strengthening its risk-adjusted appeal to investors.
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