Bitcoin is trading around $91,000 after a minor dip earlier today, and uncertainty continues to dominate sentiment. The market sits at a crossroads: a small but vocal group of analysts argues that the recent correction served as a healthy reset before a continuation of the broader uptrend, while the majority of traders believe the first leg of a new bear market is already underway. With price action still showing hesitation, the debate grows louder by the day.

According to top analyst Darkfost, a critical threshold will help determine Bitcoin’s next major direction. He highlights the importance of the Realized Price of the youngest Long-Term Holder (LTH) band, which currently sits at $96,956. This metric marks the transition point between short-term and long-term holders and is viewed as a psychological and structural barrier for market stability.

Reclaiming this level would push these young LTHs back into a comfortable profit zone, reducing their incentive to sell and helping to restore confidence across the market. Until Bitcoin closes decisively above $97K, Darkfost warns that caution is warranted, as volatility remains high and the risk of further downside persists.

Why the $97K Threshold Matters for Bitcoin’s Next Major Move

Darkfost emphasizes that the $96,956–$97,000 zone plays a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin’s next phase. This level represents the Realized Price of the youngest Long-Term Holder band, meaning it reflects the average cost basis of investors who recently transitioned from short-term to long-term holding behavior. When Bitcoin trades below this threshold, these holders sit at an unrealized loss, increasing the likelihood of panic selling and adding pressure to the market.

Breaking above this zone would flip sentiment for this group almost immediately. Darkfost explains that reclaiming $97K would place these investors back into a comfortable profit position, restoring their confidence and expectations of potential gains. Once this psychological weight lifts, these holders typically choose to keep accumulating rather than selling, which naturally brings more stability to the market.

However, he cautions that Bitcoin’s failure to close above $97,000 keeps the risk tilted to the downside. As long as the price remains below this band, the market stays vulnerable, and volatility may continue.

Even if BTC successfully reclaims $97K, Darkfost reminds that this is only the first step. The market would still need stronger structural confirmation—such as reclaiming key moving averages and rebuilding demand—to validate a true bullish reversal that could eventually lead to a new all-time high.

BTC Weekly Structure Shows Early Signs of Stabilization

Bitcoin’s weekly chart reflects a market trying to stabilize after a sharp multi-week correction that dragged the price from above $115,000 down toward the mid-$80,000s. The latest weekly candle shows a firm rebound from the 100-week moving average (green line), now acting as dynamic support around the $84,000–$86,000 region. This level historically attracts long-term buyers, and the strong wick rejection confirms renewed demand.

BTC is currently trading near $91,300, sitting just below the 50-week moving average (blue line), which now acts as resistance. A clean reclaim of this moving average—currently positioned around $95K–$97K—would significantly improve the technical outlook and align with on-chain signals calling for a recovery. Until then, the trend remains neutral-to-bearish on higher timeframes.

Volume during the recent bounce stands out, showing one of the strongest buying reactions since early 2025. This suggests that long-term holders and institutional buyers may be stepping in as the price approaches key value zones.

However, Bitcoin is not out of danger. Failures to break above $97K would leave the structure vulnerable to another leg down, potentially retesting $86K or even deeper liquidity pockets around $80K.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin market experienced a moderate price rebound over the past week, following a prolonged period of price correction that began in early October. The flagship cryptocurrency is now trading above $90,000, with hopes building for a potential push back toward its all-time high of $126,100.

Notably, popular market analyst KillaXBT has flagged a key price zone that could serve as the next target in this relieving market recovery.

Bitcoin Headed To $95k-$96k, But Price Pullback May Occur First – Analyst

In an X post on November 28, KillaXBT shares some compelling insights on Bitcoin’s price condition, highlighting both bullish and bearish tendencies. Following the asset’s gain of 7.22% in the past week, the analyst predicts that market bulls are likely to drive prices to around $95,000-$96,000, which contains strong, heavy illiquidity pockets and several liquidation clusters. 

For context, these zones are attractive to price because they contain large concentrations of resting orders, making them high-value liquidity targets. Liquidation clusters, in particular, hold groups of leveraged positions that trigger forced buying or selling once the price reaches them, injecting fresh liquidity into the market.

However, KillaXBT cautions that this upside move may not occur immediately, noting that the market often delays sweeping major liquidity zones ahead of key macro events. With the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting expected to deliver clarity on potential rate cuts, traders may see continued liquidity building below the yearly open in the near term.

According to the analyst, these upper liquidation levels are still likely to be cleared, but the timing could align more closely with next month’s policy announcement rather than the current market cycle.

The analyst outlines a potential scenario in which Bitcoin experiences a minor pullback to around $93,000 before retesting $89,200. From there, the asset could move toward the $95,000–$96,000 target, in line with expectations for a potential FOMC rate adjustment.

However, KillaXBT also highlights the possibility that Bitcoin may reach these key liquidation zones before the FOMC meeting. In such a scenario, the market could see a rapid surge to $96,000, followed by a sharp drop to around $89,200 due to potential liquidations, before eventually returning to these upper liquidity zones.

Following this analysis, KillaXBT is opting for a short position, which he intends to reassess in relation to market trends as the FOMC approaches. Interestingly, the analyst believes the real short-term opportunity only comes after the FOMC’s announcement.

Bitcoin Price Overview

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $90,490, reflecting a slight 0.64% decline in the past day.

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed in a report how long-term Bitcoin liquidity has witnessed a sharp decline alongside the market downturn.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Liquidity Ratio Has Plunged Recently

In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has talked about how liquidity in the Bitcoin market has changed following the recent downturn. Glassnode has gauged the “liquidity” using the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, an on-chain metric that measures the ratio between the profit and loss that BTC investors are realizing through their transactions.

Current demand momentum can be tracked using a version of this indicator that specifically tracks the profitability of the short-term holders (STHs), investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days.

As the below chart shows, the STH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio was at relatively high levels earlier, but since early October, its value has plummeted.

With a value of just 0.07, the indicator is now sitting deep inside the loss region, a sign that the recent Bitcoin buyers have overwhelmingly been capitulating at a loss. “Such overwhelming loss dominance confirms that liquidity has evaporated, especially after the heavy demand absorption seen in Q2–Q3 2025 as long-term holders increased their spending,” explained the analytics firm.

The metric fell to similar lows back in Q1 2022, but so far, market weakness hasn’t been as prolonged. The report noted that if the ratio continues to be depressed, market conditions could mirror those from back then.

While short-term demand momentum has collapsed, the same hasn’t been true for long-term liquidity, at least not yet. Long-term momentum can be measured using the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio of the long-term holders (LTHs), representing the more resolute section of the market (holding time greater than 155 days).

From the above chart, it’s visible that the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the Bitcoin LTH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has witnessed a sharp decline as BTC has crashed.

Despite the drop, however, the metric’s value is still 408, implying LTHs are realizing, on average, a profit that’s 408 times the loss. This means that the long-term liquidity is still healthy compared to Q1 2022, or even the major bottom formations from the current cycle.

Glassnode warned, however, “if liquidity continues to fade and this ratio compresses toward 10x or lower, the probability of transitioning into a deeper bear market becomes difficult to ignore.”

It now remains to be seen how the LTH Realized Profit/Loss will change for Bitcoin in the near future, and if liquidity will see a further squeeze.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $90,600, down 1.3% over the past week.