The Bitcoin market continues to experience high levels of investor uncertainty, as indicated by the unstable price action of the past week. In the last month alone, the leading cryptocurrency has lost about 14% of its value, strengthening fears of an impending bear market. Notably, renowned market expert Ali Martinez has shared some insight on this speculation, highlighting a key technical development that historically precedes an extended downtrend.
Bitcoin Winter Phase To Start Only When Price Loses 730-Day SMA – Analyst
In an X post on Friday, Martinez presents an on-chain analysis that identifies a key price zone for determining Bitcoin’s price trajectory amid current market volatility. Using data from the Bitcoin Investor Tool metric from Glassnode, the analyst has discovered that extended downtrends in Bitcoin often start once the price falls below its 730-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a level currently sitting at $82,150.
For context, the chart below shows that the 730-day SMA (green), an important long-term indicator, has historically acted as a structural support level during major market cycles. When Bitcoin decisively loses this line, momentum tends to shift, leading to deeper corrections and lengthier bearish periods as seen between 2015-2016, 2019, and 2022-2023.
However, the chart also presents some bullish insights. Larger cyclical metrics, including the 730-day SMA × 5 band (pink) sitting at $410,771, remain well above the current price, indicating that macro overvaluation is not yet a concern, as the leading cryptocurrency remains far from an overheated zone. According to Ali Martinez, as long as Bitcoin holds above $82,150, the potential for any prolonged downtrend synonymous with a bear market remains minimal, ensuring the bull structure remains intact.
Bitcoin Weekly Net Outflows Hit $800M As Accumulation Rises
In other developments, on-chain analytics firm Sentora reports that the Bitcoin market recorded an $805 million increase in weekly exchange net outflows, indicating that a significant portion of market investors are unfazed by the recent price correction. Instead, they are opting to transfer more of their investment off crypto exchanges, suggesting an intention to hold in anticipation of future price appreciation.
Meanwhile, total Bitcoin network fees reached $1.96 million, representing a 7.69% gain from the previous week and indicating an increase in transactions and network activity during this period. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $89,693 following a 2.71% price decline in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin has struggled to maintain a sustained correlation with Gold, recently only moving in unison during market downturns. However, examining Bitcoin’s price action through the lens of Gold rather than USD reveals a more complete picture of the current market cycle. By measuring Bitcoin’s true purchasing power against comparable assets, we can identify potential support levels and gauge where the bear market cycle may be approaching its conclusion.
Bitcoin Bear Market Officially Begins Below Key Support
Breaking beneath the 350-day moving average at about $100,000 and the significant psychological 6-figure barrier marked the functional entry into bear market territory, with Bitcoin declining approximately 20% immediately thereafter. From a technical perspective, trading beneath The Golden Ratio Multiplier moving average has historically indicated Bitcoin entering a bear cycle, though the narrative becomes more interesting when measured against Gold rather than USD.
Figure 1: BTC breaking beneath the 350DMA has historically coincided with the start of bear markets.View Live Chart
The Bitcoin versus Gold chart tells a notably different story than the USD chart. Bitcoin topped out in December 2024 and has since declined over 50% from that level, whereas the USD valuation peaked in October 2025, significantly beneath the highs set the prior year. This divergence suggests that Bitcoin may have been in a bear market for considerably longer than most observers realize. Looking at historical Bitcoin bear cycles when measured in Gold, we can see patterns that suggest the current pullback may already be approaching critical support zones.
Figure 2: When priced in Gold, BTC dropped beneath its 350DMA back in August.
The 2015 bear cycle bottomed at an 86% retracement lasting 406 days. The 2017 cycle saw 364 days and an 84% decline. The previous bear cycle produced a 76% drawdown over 399 days. Currently, at the time of this analysis, Bitcoin is down 51% in 350 days when measured against Gold. While percentage drawdowns have been diminishing as Bitcoin’s market cap grows and more capital flows into the market, this trend reflects the rising tide of institutional adoption and lost Bitcoin supply rather than a fundamental change in cycle dynamics.
Figure 3: Plotting BTC’s value in Gold reveals a cycle pattern that suggests we could already be 90% of the way through this bear market.
Rather than relying solely on percentage drawdowns and time elapsed, Fibonacci retracement levels mapped across multiple cycles provide greater precision. Using a Fibonacci retracement tool from bottom to top across historical cycles reveals striking levels of confluence.
Figure 4: In previous cycles, bear market bottoms have aligned with key Fibonacci retracement levels.
In the 2015-2018 cycle, the bear market bottom occurred at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which corresponded to approximately 2.56 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin. The resulting price action marked the bottom with remarkable clarity, far cleaner than the equivalent USD chart. Moving forward to the 2018-2022 cycle, the bear market bottom aligned almost perfectly with the 0.5 level at approximately 9.74 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin. This level later acted as meaningful resistance-turned-support once Bitcoin reclaimed it during the subsequent bull market.
Translating Bitcoin Bear Market Gold Ratios Back to USD Price Targets
From the previous bear market low through the current bull cycle high, the 0.618 Fibonacci level sits at approximately 22.81 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin, while the 0.5 level rests at 19.07 ounces. Current price action is trading near the midpoint of these two levels, presenting what may be an attractive accumulation zone from a purchasing power perspective.
Figure 5: Applying Fibonacci levels to predict market lows for BTC versus Gold and subsequently pricing these back into USD, illustrates where Bitcoin’s price may bottom.
Multiple Fibonacci levels from different cycles create additional confluence. The 0.786 level from the current cycle translates to approximately 21.05 ounces of Gold, corresponding to a Bitcoin price around $89,160. The 0.618 level from the previous cycle aligns near $80,000 again. These convergence zones suggest that if Bitcoin were to decline further, the next meaningful technical target would be around $67,000, derived from the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at approximately 15.95 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin.
Conclusion: The Bitcoin Bear Market May Be 90% Complete Already
Bitcoin has likely been in a bear market for substantially longer than USD-only analysis suggests, with purchasing power already declining significantly since December 2024, when measured against Gold and other comparable assets. Historical Fibonacci retracement levels, when properly calibrated across multiple cycles and converted back into USD terms, point toward potential support confluence in the $67,000 to $80,000 range. While this analysis is inherently theoretical and unlikely to play out with perfect precision, the convergence of multiple data points across time horizons and valuation frameworks suggests the bear market may be approaching its conclusion sooner than many anticipate.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out how the current Bitcoin market is reminiscent to the structure from the first quarter of 2022.
Bitcoin Dynamics Are Currently Looking Similar To Early 2022 Bear Market
In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has discussed about how the broader Bitcoin market structure is starting to resemble Q1 2022. First, the analytics firm has shared the data of its Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model, highlighting price levels that correspond to a certain degree of investor profitability.
In the chart, three supply quantiles are listed: 0.75, 0.85, and 0.95. If Bitcoin trades at the first of these levels, 75% of the supply will be in profit. Similarly, the latter two correspond to 85% and 95% profitability, respectively.
It’s visible in the graph that Bitcoin has recently fallen below all three of these levels, indicating more than 25% of the cryptocurrency’s supply is now underwater. “This creates a fragile balance between the risk of top-buyer capitulation and the potential for seller exhaustion to form a bottom,” explained Glassnode.
BTC similarly broke below the 0.75 quantile back during the sideways market of early 2022. Another indicator that reinforces the resemblance is the Total Supply in Loss, which measures, as its name suggests, the amount of the Bitcoin circulating supply that’s being held at some net unrealized loss.
Below is a chart showing the 7-day moving average (MA) trend in the metric.
As displayed in the graph, the 7-day MA Bitcoin Total Supply in Loss hit a high of 7.1 million BTC last week, which is the highest that it has been since September 2023, more than two years ago.
The analytics firm noted:
The current scale of supply in loss, ranging between 5M–7M BTC, is strikingly similar to the early-2022 sideways market, further reinforcing the resemblance noted above.
Finally, the Bitcoin long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) also implies that the current market structure is mirroring Q1 2022. This metric tells us, in short, whether the Bitcoin investors holding since more than 155 days ago are selling their coins at a profit or loss.
The Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR has witnessed a sharp decline recently, but its value is still above 1, indicating the long-term holders are selling at some net profit. With its current value of 1.43, however, there has been a notable shrinkage in the profit margins of the cohort.
It now remains to be seen whether the trends in these indicators mean that the cryptocurrency is on the cusp of a bear market transition like in early 2022, or if a rebound will come before long.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has seen a slight pullback during the past day as its price has dropped to $91,800.
Crypto prices today fell across the board on as thin liquidity, heavy leverage, and more than $600 million in liquidations drove a sharp market pullback. The total crypto market cap dropped 5% to $3.04 trillion, extending last week’s weakness. Bitcoin…
While the Q4 correction has been painful, the crypto market outlook is strong in the medium term. In particular, liquidity, on-chain metrics, and regulatory changes are expected to drive recovery after the crypto market crash.
Bitcoin price has started to show clear signs of weakness, and the recent move back below six figures has forced a reassessment of the near-term outlook. With several important technical and on-chain levels now lost, I have recalibrated my base case so that the probability of retesting new all-time highs in the coming weeks has fallen below 50%. That can change quickly if major levels are reclaimed, but until then, the conditions resemble a market shifting away from trending strength and toward a deeper corrective phase.
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Bitcoin Price: Is “Buying The Dip” Still the Right Move?
Bitcoin is already in a sizeable pullback, but buying every decline isn’t always the optimal approach outside of a confirmed bull trend. In a bear-market environment, what appear to be attractive dips can still lead to significantly lower prices. Short-term rallies and sharp retracements are typical in downtrending markets, so reacting to data rather than pre-emptively predicting a bottom becomes far more important.
This pattern of multiple dips is evident when we analyze the Short-Term Holder Realized Price chart during the last cycle. It is also clear to see how this metric acted as a key resistance throughout this phase, with sustained recovery only experienced once BTC reclaimed STH Realized Price levels.
Figure 1: As observed in the last cycle, there were multiple dips before we reached the market bottom.View Live Chart
There is one caveat: if price meaningfully reclaims key levels, the entire picture shifts. That’s why a small allocation on this dip can make sense, while holding off on further buying until we see deeper macro confluence is a more defensive approach.
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Bitcoin Price: Key Levels You Must Watch Right Now
The MVRV Z-Score and the Bitcoin Realized Price give a clearer sense of where the broader market’s cost basis sits. The realized cost basis of the network currently clusters around the mid-$50,000s, but this figure continues rising on a daily basis.
Figure 2: Historically, bear market bottoms occur when BTC’s price sits below the Realized Price.View Live Chart
A similar narrative emerges from the 200-Week Moving Average, as this also currently sits in the mid-$50,000. Historically, points where this metric meets price have presented strong long-term accumulation opportunities.
Figure 3: The 200WMA also suggests an accumulation point of $55k, albeit rising daily.View Live Chart
Those levels rise slowly each day, meaning a potential bottom could form at $60,000, $65,000, or higher, depending on how long Bitcoin spends trending downward. The important point is that value tends to emerge when spot price trades close to the average historical cost of the network, and confluence is provided from key levels of buy support.
Bitcoin Price: What Supply & Demand Signals Are Really Saying
Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple remains an important metric in identifying stress points among long-term and experienced holders. Very low readings suggest large, old coins are not moving, which has often aligned with market bottoms. A sharp spike, however, can indicate capitulation pressure, which often accompanies or precedes significant market turning points.
Figure 4: Current VDD Multiple readings illustrate that the larger and more experienced players in the market are still very active.View Live Chart
Right now, the metric continues rising as price falls, suggesting many holders are distributing into weakness. That’s not characteristic of a cycle bottom, where forced selling is usually extreme and compressed into a short window. At this stage, the market still appears to be unwinding rather than exhausting. Alongside this, Long-Term Holder Supply has been in a downtrend. Ideally, this stabilises and begins to increase again before calling any major bottom, as bottoms form when the most patient participants begin holding, not exiting.
Bitcoin Price: What Funding Rates Reveal About Capitulation (Or Lack Thereof)
Periods of peak fear tend to show up clearly through heavy short positioning, negative funding as shown in the Bitcoin Funding Rates, and large realized losses. Those conditions signal that weaker hands have capitulated, and stronger hands are absorbing that supply.
Figure 5: Typically, occasions when BTC funding rates are heavily negative have signaled major market lows followed by price rallies.View Live Chart
The market has not yet shown the signature panic selling and shorting often associated with major cyclical lows. Without stress in derivatives and without a rush of loss-taking, it is difficult to argue that the market has fully flushed out.
Bitcoin Price: The Exact Levels That Must Be Reclaimed to Kill the Bear Case
Suppose the bearish scenario is wrong, which of course would be the preferred outcome. In that case, Bitcoin needs to begin reclaiming key structural levels, including the $100,000 psychological zone, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, and the 350-day moving average as depicted in the Golden Ratio Multiplier chart.
Figure 6: BTC must demonstrate a sustained reclamation of its 350DMA to signify a return to bullish ways.View Live Chart
Temporary wicks or single-day closes are not enough. Sustained closes above these levels, along with strength in risk assets globally, would suggest the trend is shifting. But until that happens, the data leans cautious.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Final Thoughts on Dip vs. New Bear Market
Since breaking below several important levels, the outlook has become more defensive. There’s no structural weakness in Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals, but the short-term market structure doesn’t resemble a healthy bull trend.
For now, the recommended strategy consists of not buying at every dip, waiting for confluence before heavy scaling in, respecting macro conditions and ratio trends, and only turning aggressive once the market proves strength. Most investors never identify the exact top or bottom; the goal is to position near areas of high probability with enough confirmation to avoid months of unnecessary drawdown.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
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