For most of the week, the Ethereum price has remained in a range-bound spell, putting in no significant movement outside of the $3,000 and $2,880 price boundaries. Amid rising speculations, an on-chain analysis has recently been put out, which provides an answer to the question.

Open Interest Across Exchanges Falls To $17 Billion

In their latest QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, analytics platform Arab Chain reveals that there has been a fall in active Ethereum derivatives contracts across major exchanges, as indicated by data from the Ethereum: Open Interest-All Exchanges, All Symbol metric. Typically, rising Open Interest (OI) across exchanges indicates that more traders are entering leveraged positions. On the other hand, falling OI reflects more exits of leveraged positions, and by extension, reduced aversion to risk.

In the Quicktake post, Arab Chain highlights that open interest across exchanges has dipped to about $16.9 billion, marking the lowest level reached since mid-December last year. This, in turn, reflects an overall reduction in risk appetite across the Ethereum derivatives market. Because there is less speculative activity, there are also reduced risks of liquidations. Hence, the Ethereum price stands a higher chance of consolidating.

What’s Happening On Binance?

While exchanges in general are recording significant pull-outs from the derivatives market, Binance has shown an outlier performance. Arab Chain highlights that the world’s largest exchange by trading volume has instead recorded about $7.5 billion in Open Interest. Interestingly, this reading slightly exceeds the December average range of $6.8–$7.4 billion. 

The divergence between the Open Interest values across all exchanges and that of Binance suggests that, while market participants are reducing their risk exposure, there is still liquidity in the derivatives market. Rather than a blatant exit, it has been repositioned toward the deeper and more liquid venue.

Arab Chain also explains that this behavior indicates a change in market operations from a higher-risk trading environment to one more price and risk efficient. In conclusion, the large traders are yet to make their exits but are merely reducing their exposure, while holding high-quality positions on Binance.

In addition, Ethereum’s proximity to the $3,000 price — especially as OI declines — shows that the market has been absorbing the deleveraging events while showing little selling pressure. Ultimately, Binance’s OI retaining levels above December’s support the idea that the market still has strong derivatives backing. Hence, the broader picture remains bullish. As of this writing, Ethereum trades at $2,958, reflecting a 0.33% growth since the past day, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview.com

Based on data from the weekly price chart, Bitcoin is witnessing a significant loss of over 6% following recent widespread market liquidations. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency has taken on a consolidatory stance in the past day, as if to lend credence to growing hopes of some price recovery. However, a recent on-chain analysis points out that Bitcoin’s outward show of resilience might merely be theatrical and that the flagship cryptocurrency could be facing a dark future ahead.

Bitcoin Enters 30-Day Cumulative Realized Loss Phase Since October 2023

In a recent Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, crypto education and research group XWIN Research Japan dissects the present on-chain situation of Bitcoin, with the center of attraction being the Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss metric, which shows the leading cryptocurrency has recorded a net realized loss on a 30-day basis for the first time since October 2023. 

However, the losses seen in 2023 were short-lived and rapidly retraced, unlike the current decline, which is broader and more persistent, suggesting a possible structural shift in market dynamics. At this moment, it appears that investors are less-interested in “buying the dip,” nor are they looking to “HODL” through the Bitcoin price action, and are more willing to accept losses.

For this reason, the market can be more plausibly described as being in a state of caution. It is, however, worth mentioning that the present phase does not necessarily precede a market crash. If anything, it reflects that Bitcoin may be entering a more volatile phase, independent of speculative frenzies.

Realized Profits Signal Late-Stage Of Bull Cycle 

XWIN Research further reinforces the hypotheses by referencing the trend in realized profits. According to the market experts, Realized Profits peaked in March 2024 at approximately 1.2 million BTC, and reduced slightly to 1.1 million in December 2024. 

As of July, 2025, realized profits had sharply dropped to 517,000 BTC, reflecting an increasing exit of profit-taking activity within the market. But this pales in comparison to the lower 331,000 BTC recorded in October. The analytics group explained that this contraction occurred despite a rise in prices, thus suggesting an absence of deep upside momentum.

The group further highlights that this is a telltale sign of a late-stage bull market, one which was seen in 2021-2022. In this period, realized profits slowly dropped before the Bitcoin price flipped bearish. More shockingly, the annual timeframe tells a similar story, with annual net realized profits contracting from 4.4 million BTC to 2.5 million BTC, just within October 2025 and early 2026. This is also similar to the phase that preceded the bear market of 2022.

In essence, Bitcoin is in a transitioning phase, from a mature bull phase to a volatile environment. As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at $89,462. 

Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin holders have entered a net realized loss phase for the first time since October 2023, according to the latest report from on-chain and market data analytics firm CryptoQuant.

According to the report, since December 23, investors have collectively realized losses totaling roughly 69,000 BTC, marking a shift away from the profit-taking environment that defined much of the past year.

CryptoQuant reports this latest change represents a shift in on-chain behaviour where holders are now locking in losses rather than distributing coins at a profit. Previously, these types of transitions tended to emerge when market conviction weakened, and price recoveries failed to sustain momentum.

Realized Profit Momentum Has Been Deteriorating Since 2024

CryptoQuant data shows that realized profit momentum has been declining steadily since early 2024. Rather than a single breakdown, the market has formed a series of lower realized-profit peaks—first in January 2024, followed by December 2024, July 2025, and then October 2025.

The pattern also suggests that each rally has generated less profit-taking than the previous one, even when spot prices appeared resilient. On-chain, this is often interpreted as a sign of diminishing demand strength where buyers are increasingly unwilling to absorb supply at higher prices.

Parallels With the 2021–2022 Market Transition

The current on-chain structure closely resembles Bitcoin’s 2021–2022 bull-to-bear transition, CryptoQuant notes. During that cycle, realized profits peaked in January 2021 and gradually formed lower highs throughout the year before flipping into net losses ahead of the 2022 bear market.

This loss realization phase has coincided with a prolonged downturn as sentiment shifted from optimism to capital preservation. While history does not repeat exactly, CryptoQuant analysts point out the similarity as a cautionary sign rather than a definitive forecast.

Annual Profits Compress to Bear-Market Levels

Another key indicator is the sharp compression in annual net realized profits. CryptoQuant reports that annual realized profits have fallen to approximately 2.5 million BTC, down from around 4.4 million BTC in October. These levels are comparable to March 2022, a period widely viewed as early-stage bear market territory.

Such compression implies fewer coins are being sold at a profit across the network, reinforcing the view that Bitcoin’s on-chain profit dynamics are no longer consistent with a strong bull market environment.

What the Shift Means for the Market

While net realized losses alone do not guarantee an immediate price decline, CryptoQuant emphasizes that prolonged loss realization phases typically align with weaker sentiment and reduced speculative appetite.

If this trend persists, Bitcoin may face a period where rallies are sold into, and downside volatility becomes more pronounced, reflecting a market adjusting to lower expectations.

The post Bitcoin Enters Loss Realization Phase as On-Chain Profit Dynamics Flip Negative: CryptoQuant appeared first on Cryptonews.

The Shiba Inu price crashed to as low as $0.000007683 yesterday, sparking bearish sentiment towards the meme coin. This crash came on the back of a transfer of billions of SHIB tokens, which raised concerns of a potential sell-off by the whale in question. 

Why The Shiba Inu Price Crashed

The Shiba Inu price crashed amid significant selling pressure, with a SHIB whale sending billions of tokens to Robinhood, likely to offload these tokens. Arkham data shows that the whale (0x2d0…9f7bB) first sent 210.365 billion SHIB tokens, worth $1.63 million, to the crypto exchange. These tokens represented about 97% of the whale’s SHIB holdings.

Further data from Arkham shows that the SHIB whale sent an additional 1.52 billion tokens to Robinhood and 7 billion tokens to liquidity provider B2C2 Group, which could be an OTC sale. The Shiba Inu price has notably crashed by over 7% in the last week, and it suffered its worst drop during this period yesterday amid the whale’s transfers. The whale now holds only 5.86 billion SHIB, worth $46,790.

The Shiba Inu price also crashed due to the sell-off in the broader crypto market, led by Bitcoin. BC dropped to as low as $87,000 yesterday amid concerns over trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe stemming from the Greenland-linked Trump tariffs. However, the market recovered towards the end of the day as Trump announced that he had canceled the proposed tariffs, having reached a Greenland deal with NATO.  

Despite the recent Shiba Inu price crash, the meme coin is still up over 15% year-to-date (YTD) and ranks among the best-performing crypto assets this year. However, SHIb is still far off from its current all-time high (ATH) of $0.00008845. 

Exchange Netflows For SHIB Remains Mixed

SHIB’s exchange netflows have remained mixed, indicating there is no clear accumulation pattern for the meme coin at the moment. CryptoQuant data shows that today’s net flows are negative, totaling just over 7 billion Shiba Inu tokens, suggesting that more coins are flowing into exchanges than out. 

However, the total exchanges’ netflows yesterday were positive, at 1.6 billion tokens, indicating more tokens leaving exchanges, which is bullish for the Shiba Inu price as it hints at accumulation from whales. On January 16, SHIB’s netflows were also positive, totaling around 115 billion tokens. However, the positive netflows on that day were overshadowed by the negative flows of 214 billion SHIB recorded on January 20.   

Related Reading: Here’s Why The Shiba Inu Price Jumped Over 13%

Crypto traders still remain bullish on the Shiba Inu price as CoinGlass data shows the long/short ratio is currently above 1. Derivatives trading volume has also jumped by over 20% while the open interest is up almost 3%. 

At the time of writing, the Shiba Inu price is trading at around $0.000007978, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin recently failed to overcome the $97,000 resistance following its price surge seen in mid-January. At the moment, the leading cryptocurrency has taken on a state of inertia, with no significant movement in either direction seen. However, an investigation of on-chain dynamics has recently revealed that trouble might be looming for the flagship cryptocurrency.

Sudden Inflows: Caution Or Opportunity?

In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, key opinion leader CryptoZeno shares a potentially foreboding observation on Bitcoin’s market dynamics, saying the premier cryptocurrency could be facing a risk of distribution in the near-term.

This conjecture is based on the Bitcoin: Exchange Inflow (Total) – All Exchanges metric, which serves the basic function of tracking the total amount of BTC transferred into centralized exchanges over a certain period.  CryptoZeno highlights in the post that exchange inflows have seen sharp surges through Bitcoin’s most-recent trading sessions, which represent one of the most significant spikes seen in the month of January.

Typically, large inflows of BTC into exchanges act as a telltale sign that investors are preparing to distribute their holdings. This is contrary to any inclination towards long-term holding. Interestingly, the sign of distribution-readiness is more typical if the event were to occur just after a strong advance of the BTC price. 

Also citing historical occurrences, CryptoZeno explains that such behavior, where BTC holders increasingly send their tokens to exchanges, suggests that investors are venturing out of Bitcoin and to more “liquid venues.” Expectedly, such a massive dispersal of their holdings would translate into price as increased sell-side pressure, especially in the short-term. 

Notably, the analyst makes it clear that inflows alone do not tell a sure story of an immediate reversal. More accurately, spikes in exchange inflows often come before heightened volatility periods or corrective price action.

Analyst Highlights Mid- To Large-Size Bands As Main BTC ‘Movers’

CryptoZeno provides more context by merging the Spent Output Value Bands with the Exchange Inflow metric. This shows which investor cohort was more involved in creating the distribution signal seen. On inspection of the blended metric, it becomes apparent that the spike in exchange inflows was largely induced by mid-to-large size bands (10-100 BTC, and 100-1,000BTC).

These size bands, according to the crypto expert, are associated with whales, long-term investors who are repositioning, or even ETFs. These investor classes do not merely act without strategic reasons. As a result, their activity is usually more important compared to retail activity.

A simultaneous increment to exchange inflows, alongside large investor distribution, is another sign that the Bitcoin market is on the brink of a fragile phase. In the event that inflows remain high as price struggles to reclaim past highs, the world’s leading cryptocurrency could be entering a phase of trouble, as it would suggest the predominance of supply over demand.

As of this writing, Bitcoin is worth $95,250, recording almost no growth since the past day.

Bitcoin prices continue to consolidate within the $95,000 zone following the pullback in the latter part of the past week. The premier cryptocurrency is experiencing a bullish January performance marked by a net gain of 11.42% since the new year commenced. However, the effects of the extended price correction from Q4 2025 linger. Using recent on-chain data, a market analyst with the username MorenoDV_ has identified certain holder cohorts who are still experiencing extreme psychological stress that could impact future price trajectory.

Bitcoin Market Risk Redistribution Ongoing – Here’s Why

In a QuickTake post on January 17, MorenoDV_ postulates that the Bitcoin bull cycle remains on despite the negative events of Q4 2025. Notably, the crypto market leader experienced a heavy 33% price correction after hitting its current all-time high ($126,198) in early October.

Although Bitcoin has recorded some modest price recovery in the past month, significant expectations of a bear market remain, driven by a diminished market demand and failure to reclaim key technical levels such as the 365-day MA. Using the data from the Realized Price by UTXO Age Bands, MorenoDV explains that the Bitcoin market is actively redistributing risk. This positive development counters the bearish narrative of a market cycle ending.

With the present spot price around $95,583, the CryptoQuant metric shows that psychological stress is unevenly distributed among Bitcoin holders. Notably, short-term holders, i.e., 1w-1m and 1m-3m cohorts, have realized prices, i.e., $89,255 and $93,504, respectively, below the spot price. This data suggests that these classes of investors are in profit and are experiencing low market pressure, which helps keep fear at bay.

However, mid-term holders of 3m-6m and long-term holders of 6m-12m have realized prices of $114,808, and $100,748 both of which are significantly above the present spot price. However,  both holder cohorts have chosen to bear the discomfort by absorbing losses rather than initiating an aggressive redistribution. 

Therefore, as the spot price rises towards the realized price levels of these stressed cohorts, losses are expected to significantly reduce, eventually easing these pressures on these classes of holders and balancing the market risk. This market development only occurs if the 3m-6m and 6m-12m continue to interpret the present market drawdown as a mere cyclical discomfort rather than a change in market structure. Therefore, there is a need for a sustained bullish narrative and constructive price behavior to keep these investors from seeking a market exit.

Bitcoin Price Overview

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $95,265, reflecting a modest 5.3% gain in the last week. 

The price of Bitcoin took the crypto community by surprise when it broke the resistance level around $94,000 over the past week. This has sparked questions on whether this was just a mere bear market rally or the bull run is back on track. Here’s what CryptoQuant, which called the bear market earlier, has to say about the latest Bitcoin price rally.

BTC Still In Bear Market Despite Improving Conditions: CryptoQuant

On Friday, January 16, blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant revealed in its latest report that the Bitcoin demand conditions are becoming less negative following the recent rally above $97,000. This on-chain observation comes a few weeks after the firm said the BTC apparent demand — at the time — was pointing to the start of a bear market.

The confirmation of the bear market came after the price of Bitcoin fell below the 365-day moving average — a level that has historically determined bull and bear phases. However, the premier cryptocurrency has been on an upward trajectory since breaking beneath this level, up by approximately 21% since late November 2025.

In its research report, CryptoQuant noted that while the price of BTX is approaching the 365-day moving average, it has yet to reclaim the technical level, which currently lies around $101,000. The analytics firm further mentioned acts as a “regime boundary” during bear markets — as seen in past cycles, triggering price rejections before renewed downside.

In addition to the technical hurdles, CryptoQuant noted that while the Bitcoin demand conditions have improved “at the margin”, they still signal market weakness. “US spot indicators such as the Coinbase Premium briefly turned positive, while U.S. ETFs merely paused net selling after offloading ~54K BTC in November, rather than showing sustained accumulation,” the firm added.

CryptoQuant also highlighted that on-chain spot demand continues to decline, with apparent demand down by about 67,000 BTC over the past 30 days. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund inflows have broadly remained below levels often correlated with durable bullish market recoveries.

At the same time, the rising BTC exchange inflows do not spread optimism but rather increase downside risk. Data from CryptoQuant shows that transfers to centralized exchanges climbed to a 7-day average of approximately 39,000 BTC, the highest level since late November. According to the firm, this is a tell-tale sign of increasing sell-side pressure after relief rallies.

Going by this, it appears that while the market conditions are somewhat improving favorably for price, Bitcoin is still in the bear cycle that started less than two months ago.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $95,200, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours.

Over the week, Ethereum struggled to sustain any significant move to the upside. Although the second-largest cryptocurrency reclaimed the $3,300 price level, it could not break above $3,400 to continue its path towards higher price levels. As it stands, it appears that the Ether token is taking on a short-term bearish structure. However, an on-chain evaluation has recently been put out, which suggests that market participants might be gearing up for a significant move in the near-term.

Ethereum Futures Activity Reaches Monthly High Following Market Inactivity

In a recent QuickTake post on the CryptoQuant platform, analytics group Arab Chain reveals that there has recently been a spike in futures trading activity on the Binance derivatives market. This revelation is based on the Binance: ETH Futures Daily Volume metric, which monitors the total value of Ethereum futures contracts being traded on Binance each day, hence reflecting market activity, trader participation, and potential leverage exposure.

The latest reading of the metric has highlighted a major shift, with trading volume climbing as high as $21.7 billion. According to Arab Chain, this reading marks the highest level since mid-December, reflecting that strong momentum has returned to the futures market.

Notably, the spike in futures trading volume was preceded by a period of relative decline in the second half of December. This event coincides with a period of price stability, alongside a tapering risk appetite among traders. Interestingly, institutional investors also contributed prevalent aversion to risk.  Arab Chain explains that the decline is a typical sign that market participants want to “wait and see,” instead of speculatively opening large positions.

However, the present scenario — where futures volume surged — paints an opposing story. As the futures trading volume reflects levels above its mid-December high, it becomes apparent that interest among Ethereum traders is being rekindled. This is because increasing futures volume “is typically associated with higher leverage usage, hedging activity, and speculative positioning” — a line up which indicates that the market is preparing for significant movement.

The reason for this spike could also be attributed to traders who are reacting to key technical levels or shifting expectations around near-term price action of a potential trend reversal. In the grand scheme, however, the Ethereum price reacts to this activity, depending on the alignment of spot demand with derivatives activity. Till such a definite sign comes up, the market stands at a point of uncertainty.

ETH Price Overview

As of this writing, Ethereum stands at a price of $3,292, reflecting no real growth since the past day.

While some analysts are focused on predicting the next altcoin season, others are keeping a close eye on when meme coins like PEPE AND FARTCOIN might explode. According to a crypto analyst, the meme coin market is currently at one of its lowest points since 2024. However, while this downturn may raise concerns, the analyst emphasizes that it is only a matter of time before the market flips over and enters a major bullish phase. 

Meme Coin Market Low To Fuel PEPE And FARTCOIN Rally

@theunipcs, a crypto analyst on X, announced that meme coin dominance has dropped back to near all-time lows, potentially setting the stage for a big sector-wide rally in 2026. The analyst shared a CryptoQuant chart illustrating the declining trend in the meme coin market. He noted that the current downturn is even more severe than what was observed during the 2022 to 2023 bear market. However, similar low points in February 2024 led to massive price rallies in meme coins like BONK, which jumped 440%, FLOKI by 1,000%, WIF by 1,600%, and PEPE by 2,500%. 

Before these historic rallies, @theunipcs stated that many investors believed that meme coins were dead. He noted that shortly after the negative sentiment shifted, the market saw one of the most explosive meme coin rallies of the cycle. With dominance at similar low levels and sentiment still uncertain, the analyst predicts another rally could occur in the current cycle. 

In his analysis, @theunipcs referenced the early meme coin melt-up in the first week of January 2026. He said that a week after his December 23, 2025, post, coins including USELESS, PEPE, BONK, and FARTCOIN surged between 50% and 120% within just a few days. The overall meme coin sector also saw gains of more than $10 billion in market capitalization during that period. 

Notably, the analyst has observed that Bitcoin is now breaking out from a key level. As a result, major cryptocurrencies are becoming more attractive to investors for the first time in months, and overall sentiment in the crypto market is improving. He suggested that these bullish conditions could support another wave of meme coin momentum, with PEPE and FARTCOIN among the top cryptocurrencies the analyst predicts could rally this year. 

Other Meme Coins The Analyst Thinks Will Surge

In his analysis, @theunipcs identified specific coins he is positioning himself in ahead of the potential meme coin rally. Other than PEPE and FARTCOIN, he mentioned coins such as USELESS, BONK, and FLOKI, as those he expects to aggressively outperform the broader market. He stated that these meme coins are likely to lead the next wave of market gains. 

Moreover, the analyst predicted that the market will soon enter a melt-up phase, during which several coins could experience parabolic rallies of up to 1,000%.

With the latest bounce on Tuesday, the Bitcoin price has moved back above the $94,000 level, which appears to have reignited bullish sentiment across the market. A confirmed indication of the renewed bullish sentiment is the recent drop in selling pressure from investors and the futures market.

Futures Market Sellers Are Stepping Back

The cryptocurrency market is showing upward strength with Bitcoin reclaiming resistance levels that previously halted its upside attempts. While the price of BTC is trending upwards once again, selling pressure on the flagship asset from the futures market is declining sharply.

Following weeks of aggressive short positioning and high funding rates that exacerbated downward movements, indicators currently reflect a substantial cooling of sell-side activity. As outlined by Darkfost, a market expert and author at CryptoQuant, the selling pressure has now divided by 10 after reaching a monthly average peak of $489 million in the BTC Net Taker Volume metric.

This shift in sentiment is a sign that open interest is returning to normal, liquidations have slowed, and traders are reducing rather than increasing their negative wagers. Although this does not guarantee an immediate rise in BTC’s price, it alleviates one of the biggest headwinds that has affected prices in recent sessions.

The Bitcoin Net Taker Volume metric provides a net volume, which aids in determining who is controlling the futures order books. Furthermore, it is simpler to identify changes in trend and trading activity when the data is smoothed using a monthly average. Currently, Darkfost highlighted that sellers are still slightly dominating the orders, with over $51 million worth of trades. 

While the metric has not yet flipped into positive territory, the data shows that it is gradually approaching it. According to the expert, it is quite encouraging when traders begin to change their approach, especially considering the significant impact futures volumes have on price action.

It is worth noting that the BTC price action has experienced a stable trend since the decline in selling pressure kicked off. Thus, if Net Taker Volume were to turn positive once more, it would undoubtedly set off a bullish reversal for Bitcoin.

Is Bitcoin Volatility Heading For Rock Bottom?

As the bullish sentiment returns to the market, the ongoing volatility is starting to fade, leading to a period of low risk. Axel Adler Jr., another author at CryptoQuant, has shared an update revealing that BTC’s realized volatility has compressed significantly, reaching approximately 23%, a level that statistically rarely persists for long.

In the past, these compression regimens have resulted in a dramatic range expansion. With realized volatility now sitting at 23.6%, compression has reached a critical threshold, bringing BTC to a crucial stage that could play a role in its next move. 

At the time of writing, the price of BTC was trading at $94,890, indicating a more than 3% increase in the last 24 hours. Its trading volume has also increased significantly, rising by nearly 61% over the past day.