After experiencing a slight upward push a few days ago, the price of XRP has pulled back as volatility slowly takes over the broader cryptocurrency market. However, on-chain data reveals an interesting story about investors, who appear to have entered an accumulation phase, scooping up the altcoin at a rapid rate that rivals past cycles.

A Cycle Déjà Vu For XRP

Buying activity is starting to heat up for XRP, but investors and traders seem to be entering a familiar phase. While these investors continue to accumulate the leading altcoin, their buying patterns on the network closely resemble those seen in the past. 

Glassnode, a popular on-chain data analytics platform, disclosed this pattern after examining the XRP Realized Price by Age (7-day Moving Average) metric. Specifically, the XRP Realized Price by Age is a key metric that determines the average price at which various cohorts of holders, divided by the length of time they have owned their tokens and last moved them.

As the price of XRP fluctuates, the chart shows that short-term holders are steadily building positions. This type of silent accumulation has been seen in the past when conviction-driven capital absorbs supplies before wider market notice, making it a critical period for the altcoin.

According to the data analytics platform, the current market structure for XRP is showing a striking resemblance to that of February 2022. A clear look into the chart reveals that active investors over the weekly to monthly timeframe window are now accumulating strongly, suggesting that bullish sentiment is returning toward the token.

One interesting thing about this accumulation is that it is happening below the cost basis of wallet addresses holding the altcoin between 6 months and 12 months. In the meantime, top purchasers continue to face increased psychological strain as long as this structure remains in place.

Why You Should Be A Patient Holder Of The Asset

Should this accumulation persist, the action is likely to lay the groundwork for another push higher. However, some investors remain skeptical about another upward move, especially to a new all-time high.

Crypto expert Bird has outlined the potential for XRP to experience a rally to a new all-time high, attributing it to the token’s design and growing role in the financial sector. The analyst stated that XRP is emerging as the foundation of the new financial system, not just another speculative asset.

Currently, the token has become a means for liquidity, payments, tokenization, and real-world use. “You don’t accidentally end up with something like this. Ripple has created something special and world-changing,” the expert added.

Bird stated that these kinds of assets only occur once in a lifetime, while encouraging investors to seek more insights about the token. This is because most people only become aware of them after the shift has already taken place.

On-chain data shows Bitcoin short-term holders have extended their underwater streak, with BTC continuing to trade under their cost basis.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Are Still Holding Net Losses

In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for Bitcoin short-term holders. This indicator measures, as its name suggests, the net amount of profit or loss that BTC investors as a whole are carrying.

The metric finds the net profit/loss in USD terms, but as capital stored in the cryptocurrency is following an upward trajectory, the absolute value of profits and losses is also ballooning. To normalize across cycles, the indicator compares the net profit/loss against the asset’s market cap.

When the value of the NUPL is positive, it means the BTC investors as a whole are in a state of net unrealized profit relative to the market cap. On the other hand, the metric’s value being under the zero mark suggests the overall network is underwater. In the context of the current topic, the NUPL of a specific part of the blockchain is of interest: short-term holders (STHs). This cohort includes the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days.

Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH NUPL over the last several years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH NUPL has been negative recently, indicating that the recent buyers of the asset have been holding a net unrealized loss.

The group first went underwater back in November when the cryptocurrency’s price witnessed its crash. BTC steadied course in December and has seen some recovery in January, but even at the peak of the surge, the STHs couldn’t return to profits.

“A recovery above ~$98K appears to be the minimum threshold required to return this cohort to a net profitable state,” explained the analytics firm. It now remains to be seen whether the unrealized loss streak of the STHs will extend further in the near future or if BTC will reclaim its cost basis.

The NUPL provides information about the profits and losses that Bitcoin investors have yet to capture. Another metric called the Net Realized Profit/Loss covers the profits and losses that BTC holders are “harvesting” through their transactions.

As CryptoQuant head of research, Julio Moreno, has pointed out in an X post, the 30-day value of the Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss has been negative recently, a sign that loss-taking has outweighed profit-taking. This is the first time since October 2023 that loss realization has dominated this timeframe, as the chart below shows.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $90,900, down more than 2% over the past week.

Bitcoin prices continue to consolidate within the $95,000 zone following the pullback in the latter part of the past week. The premier cryptocurrency is experiencing a bullish January performance marked by a net gain of 11.42% since the new year commenced. However, the effects of the extended price correction from Q4 2025 linger. Using recent on-chain data, a market analyst with the username MorenoDV_ has identified certain holder cohorts who are still experiencing extreme psychological stress that could impact future price trajectory.

Bitcoin Market Risk Redistribution Ongoing – Here’s Why

In a QuickTake post on January 17, MorenoDV_ postulates that the Bitcoin bull cycle remains on despite the negative events of Q4 2025. Notably, the crypto market leader experienced a heavy 33% price correction after hitting its current all-time high ($126,198) in early October.

Although Bitcoin has recorded some modest price recovery in the past month, significant expectations of a bear market remain, driven by a diminished market demand and failure to reclaim key technical levels such as the 365-day MA. Using the data from the Realized Price by UTXO Age Bands, MorenoDV explains that the Bitcoin market is actively redistributing risk. This positive development counters the bearish narrative of a market cycle ending.

With the present spot price around $95,583, the CryptoQuant metric shows that psychological stress is unevenly distributed among Bitcoin holders. Notably, short-term holders, i.e., 1w-1m and 1m-3m cohorts, have realized prices, i.e., $89,255 and $93,504, respectively, below the spot price. This data suggests that these classes of investors are in profit and are experiencing low market pressure, which helps keep fear at bay.

However, mid-term holders of 3m-6m and long-term holders of 6m-12m have realized prices of $114,808, and $100,748 both of which are significantly above the present spot price. However,  both holder cohorts have chosen to bear the discomfort by absorbing losses rather than initiating an aggressive redistribution. 

Therefore, as the spot price rises towards the realized price levels of these stressed cohorts, losses are expected to significantly reduce, eventually easing these pressures on these classes of holders and balancing the market risk. This market development only occurs if the 3m-6m and 6m-12m continue to interpret the present market drawdown as a mere cyclical discomfort rather than a change in market structure. Therefore, there is a need for a sustained bullish narrative and constructive price behavior to keep these investors from seeking a market exit.

Bitcoin Price Overview

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $95,265, reflecting a modest 5.3% gain in the last week. 

On-chain data shows Bitcoin short-term holders have transferred a large amount of tokens to exchanges alongside the asset’s recovery rally.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Have Made Profit Transactions To Exchanges

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the exchange deposit transactions of Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs).

STHs include the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. They make up for one of the two main sides of the network divided on the basis of holding time, with the other side being known as long-term holders (LTHs).

Historically, the STH cohort has proven to represent the weak hands of the market, who easily react to market volatility. In contrast, LTHs include the diamond hands of the sector.

Bitcoin has witnessed a recovery rally recently, so, considering the track record of STHs, some selling from them is likely to have occurred. One way to track distribution from the group is through its exchange inflow data.

Below is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the exchange deposit transactions that Bitcoin STHs have made over the last couple of months.

In the graph, the STH exchange inflows are shown separately for profit and loss transactions, based on whether holders held an unrealized gain or loss before sending the tokens to exchanges.

From the chart, it’s apparent that the 24-hour sum of the STH exchange deposit transactions in profit has shot up as the cryptocurrency has gone through its rally, reaching a high of 41,800 BTC. Meanwhile, loss exchange inflows have shrunken, falling to a low of 1,800 BTC. Thus, it would appear that selling focus from STHs has largely shifted to profit-taking.

Though, while some STHs may be harvesting profits, the cohort has a whole is still in a state of net unrealized loss as Bitcoin is trading below the STH Realized Profit, as highlighted by the analyst in another X post.

The “Realized Price” is an on-chain metric that measures the average cost basis of Bitcoin investors or addresses as a whole. The STH version specifically tracks the break-even level of the supply purchased within the past 155 days.

As displayed in the above chart, the Bitcoin spot price plummeted under the STH Realized Price during the drawdown of Q4 2025. Since then, it has remained under the line, although the latest rally has brought it close. Currently, the indicator’s value is situated at $99,412.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has gone down since its high above $97,000 earlier in the week as its price is now trading around $94,600.