On-chain data shows Bitcoin short-term holders have extended their underwater streak, with BTC continuing to trade under their cost basis.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Are Still Holding Net Losses

In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for Bitcoin short-term holders. This indicator measures, as its name suggests, the net amount of profit or loss that BTC investors as a whole are carrying.

The metric finds the net profit/loss in USD terms, but as capital stored in the cryptocurrency is following an upward trajectory, the absolute value of profits and losses is also ballooning. To normalize across cycles, the indicator compares the net profit/loss against the asset’s market cap.

When the value of the NUPL is positive, it means the BTC investors as a whole are in a state of net unrealized profit relative to the market cap. On the other hand, the metric’s value being under the zero mark suggests the overall network is underwater. In the context of the current topic, the NUPL of a specific part of the blockchain is of interest: short-term holders (STHs). This cohort includes the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days.

Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH NUPL over the last several years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH NUPL has been negative recently, indicating that the recent buyers of the asset have been holding a net unrealized loss.

The group first went underwater back in November when the cryptocurrency’s price witnessed its crash. BTC steadied course in December and has seen some recovery in January, but even at the peak of the surge, the STHs couldn’t return to profits.

“A recovery above ~$98K appears to be the minimum threshold required to return this cohort to a net profitable state,” explained the analytics firm. It now remains to be seen whether the unrealized loss streak of the STHs will extend further in the near future or if BTC will reclaim its cost basis.

The NUPL provides information about the profits and losses that Bitcoin investors have yet to capture. Another metric called the Net Realized Profit/Loss covers the profits and losses that BTC holders are “harvesting” through their transactions.

As CryptoQuant head of research, Julio Moreno, has pointed out in an X post, the 30-day value of the Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss has been negative recently, a sign that loss-taking has outweighed profit-taking. This is the first time since October 2023 that loss realization has dominated this timeframe, as the chart below shows.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $90,900, down more than 2% over the past week.

On-chain data shows Bitcoin short-term holders have transferred a large amount of tokens to exchanges alongside the asset’s recovery rally.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Have Made Profit Transactions To Exchanges

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the exchange deposit transactions of Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs).

STHs include the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. They make up for one of the two main sides of the network divided on the basis of holding time, with the other side being known as long-term holders (LTHs).

Historically, the STH cohort has proven to represent the weak hands of the market, who easily react to market volatility. In contrast, LTHs include the diamond hands of the sector.

Bitcoin has witnessed a recovery rally recently, so, considering the track record of STHs, some selling from them is likely to have occurred. One way to track distribution from the group is through its exchange inflow data.

Below is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the exchange deposit transactions that Bitcoin STHs have made over the last couple of months.

In the graph, the STH exchange inflows are shown separately for profit and loss transactions, based on whether holders held an unrealized gain or loss before sending the tokens to exchanges.

From the chart, it’s apparent that the 24-hour sum of the STH exchange deposit transactions in profit has shot up as the cryptocurrency has gone through its rally, reaching a high of 41,800 BTC. Meanwhile, loss exchange inflows have shrunken, falling to a low of 1,800 BTC. Thus, it would appear that selling focus from STHs has largely shifted to profit-taking.

Though, while some STHs may be harvesting profits, the cohort has a whole is still in a state of net unrealized loss as Bitcoin is trading below the STH Realized Profit, as highlighted by the analyst in another X post.

The “Realized Price” is an on-chain metric that measures the average cost basis of Bitcoin investors or addresses as a whole. The STH version specifically tracks the break-even level of the supply purchased within the past 155 days.

As displayed in the above chart, the Bitcoin spot price plummeted under the STH Realized Price during the drawdown of Q4 2025. Since then, it has remained under the line, although the latest rally has brought it close. Currently, the indicator’s value is situated at $99,412.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has gone down since its high above $97,000 earlier in the week as its price is now trading around $94,600.