Bitcoin Magazine

Indiana Lawmakers Push Bill to Make State a Bitcoin Leader

Indiana lawmakers are taking a bold step toward embracing bitcoin. A new proposal would let the state invest in digital assets like Bitcoin through regulated funds while blocking local governments from restricting crypto companies.

The measure, House Bill 1042, reflects growing political and financial interest in crypto. Digital assets once seen as fringe now have backing from top U.S. leaders, including President Donald Trump, and major financial institutions. 

Congress also passed its first major crypto bill earlier this year.

Indiana wants in. Lawmakers gave HB 1042 an early hearing as they juggle redistricting, signaling the issue is a top priority for Republicans.

“Digital assets are quickly becoming part of everyday finances, and Indiana should be ready to engage in a smart, responsible way,” said bill author Rep. Kyle Pierce, R-Anderson. “This bill gives Hoosiers more investment choices while establishing guardrails and helping us explore how blockchain and digital asset technology can benefit communities across our state.”

A cautious bitcoin and crypto approach

The Indiana bill would let public investment funds gain exposure to digital assets, but only indirectly. It does not allow direct crypto purchases. 

Instead, it authorizes cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds, or ETFs. These funds track crypto prices and operate under federal oversight.

ETFs offer more stability than holding tokens directly, but risks remain. The SEC has warned that crypto markets still lack strong safeguards and are vulnerable to fraud and manipulation.

That concern surfaced in testimony from Tony Green, deputy executive director of the Indiana Public Retirement System. He said INPRS was neutral on the bill but would want clear disclaimers about volatility. He also noted members have shown little interest in crypto options.

Under the bill, several major programs in Indiana must offer at least one crypto ETF. That list includes the 529 education savings plan, the Hoosier START plan, and retirement systems for teachers, public employees, and lawmakers. 

Other state funds would also gain authority to invest in crypto ETFs. The state treasurer could place assets in stablecoin ETFs as well.

Guardrails and a task force

The bill goes beyond investments. It would restrict how Indiana state agencies and local governments regulate digital assets. Pierce said the aim is fairness. The measure bars local rules that target crypto use, mining operations, or self-custody.

It also protects private keys as privileged information.

The proposal creates a Blockchain and Digital Assets Task Force. The group would study potential government and consumer uses of the technology. It would also recommend pilot projects across the state.

Bitcoin is a national trend

States are increasingly exploring crypto in pension funds and public accounts. The push comes as Bitcoin gains traction as a potential store of value for governments. Some federal proposals have even floated using Bitcoin reserves to offset national debt.

Last week, Texas became the first U.S. state to purchase Bitcoin through a spot ETF, buying $5 million worth via BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, according to Texas Blockchain Council President Lee Bratcher. 

The acquisition is the state’s first move under its new Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, created by legislation signed in June. 

Texas plans to eventually self-custody its BTC but used IBIT for the initial allocation while the procurement process continues. The purchase highlights rising state and institutional interest in Bitcoin as a reserve asset. 

Harvard University recently tripled its IBIT holdings to $442.8 million, while Emory University and Abu Dhabi’s Al Warda Investments have also boosted exposure. 

Texas had previously explored a Bitcoin reserve proposal that called for cold storage, resident donations, and annual audits.

Meanwhile, New Hampshire approved a $100 million Bitcoin-backed municipal bond, the first of its kind globally, requiring borrowers to over-collateralize with BTC.

At the time of writing, the bitcoin price is flirting with $90,000.

This post Indiana Lawmakers Push Bill to Make State a Bitcoin Leader first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

The Federal Reserve has officially brought its multi-year quantitative tightening program to a close, freezing its balance sheet at about $6.57 trillion after draining more than $2.3 trillion from the system since 2022. 

The Federal Reserve’s decision to formally end quantitative tightening has created a sense of anticipation across the crypto market. Liquidity inflows have shaped every major crypto cycle, and removing the multi-year drain on liquidity is expected to set the stage for healthier crypto market conditions and see the Bitcoin price push above $100,000 in the coming days.

Policy Shift Meets A Market Still Searching For Direction

The Fed has frozen its balance sheet at roughly $6.57 trillion after three years of balance-sheet reduction. Treasury runoff has stopped on December 1, though mortgage-backed securities will continue declining slowly. 

Ending QT means that the Fed is stepping away from the rapid balance-sheet reduction that tightened financial conditions throughout 2023 and 2024. The move comes after bank reserves fell to levels that threatened short-term funding stability, and the Fed made the move to halt any further liquidity drain.

Crypto investors are expecting the end of QT to relieve some of the selling pressure that has contributed to the crypto industry in recent months. This is due to historical comparisons of how the industry played out in previous ends to QT. 

In 2019, when the Fed last ended QT, digital assets bottomed within weeks and then entered a strong recovery phase. That period represented a decisive low for altcoins and preceded Bitcoin’s rise from roughly $3,800 to $29,000 over the next year and a half.

Interestingly, the entire crypto market’s short-term behavior is starting to show signs of bullishness. Particularly, the entire market is up by 7.2% in the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin leading the charge. However, cryptocurrencies are facing a different macro environment today, and the outlook is whether Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can go on another extended bullish rally in the coming months.

Why Is Bitcoin’s Reaction Delayed?

Ending QT is a meaningful turning point, but it does not automatically flood the system with fresh liquidity. Benjamin Cowen, founder of IntoTheCryptoverse, offers one of the clearest explanations for what to expect. 

He noted that in 2019, the Fed announced QT would end on August 1, but the balance sheet continued falling through mid-August because previously scheduled Treasury maturities had not yet settled. It wasn’t until early 2020 that Bitcoin started to experience explosive gains. According to Cowen, the same dynamic applies now. 

Therefore, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet could continue edging lower for a few more weeks, meaning the first meaningful uptick in liquidity may not show up until early 2026. This delay suggests that traders hoping for an immediate boost or a quick return of Bitcoin above $100,000 are simply ahead of the cycle. The tightening phase has ended, but the actual recovery in liquidity has yet to begin.

Crypto analyst Tony Severino has revealed a historical bearish pattern that could send the Bitcoin price to as low as $42,000. This bearish outlook for BTC comes amid a rebound for the flagship crypto, with a recent surge above the psychological $90,000 level. 

Bitcoin Price Risks 50% Drop To $42,000 Based On This Pattern

In an X post, Severino stated that the Bitcoin price likes to retrace to subwave 3/4 of wave 3/4 of its impulse. Based on this, the analyst indicated that BTC could crash to as low as $42,000 on wave C of this move to the downside. His accompanying chart showed that this decline could happen sometime at the start of next year. 

This bearish Bitcoin price prediction comes amid BTC’s rebound above $90,000 following the end of quantitative tightening (QT) by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The flagship crypto has also rebounded amid optimism of another rate cut at this month’s FOMC meeting. CME FedWatch data shows there is almost a 90% chance that the Fed will lower rates again this month. 

However, despite these macro positives for the Bitcoin price, analysts such as Tony Severino have suggested that BTC is in a bear market and is likely to trend lower in the coming months. In an X post, he highlighted the BTC monthly chart, suggesting it showed a subtle volume breakout that confirmed a “not-so-subtle” trendline breakdown.  

Meanwhile, market technician JT described statements that the QT ending is bullish for the Bitcoin price as being a “fallacy.” He alluded to the possibility that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may hike rates this month as one of the stressors to liquidity beyond QT.  

Peter Brandt Predicts Drop To Mid $40ks

In an X post, veteran trader and analyst Peter Brandt predicted that the Bitcoin price could drop to mid $40,000. He stated that the upper boundary of the lower green zone starts below $70,000 and that the lower support boundary is in the mid $40,000. Notably, Brandt had previously predicted that BTC could drop to around $50,000 before it then rallies to around $200,000 in the next bull market. 

The veteran analyst noted that there have been five major bull market cycles for the Bitcoin price since its inception. He further stated that in all previous cycles, the violation of the dominant parabolic advance has been followed by a 75% plus correction with no exception. As such, he expects BTC to undergo another significant correction in this cycle, potentially dropping below $50,000. 

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $93,000, up almost 7% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Macro strategist Alex Krüger is tying Bitcoin’s next macro chapter directly to the coming reshuffle at the Federal Reserve, warning that investors are underpricing how far US rates could fall under a Trump-aligned central bank.

In a long X post titled “2026: The Year of the Fed’s Regime Change,” he argues that “the Federal Reserve as we know it ends in 2026” and that the most important driver of asset returns will be a new, much more dovish Fed led by Kevin Hassett. His base case is that this shift becomes a key driver for risk assets broadly and Bitcoin in particular in 2026, even if crypto markets are currently trading as if nothing fundamental has changed.

Why The Federal Reserve Will Dramatically Change

Krüger’s scenario is anchored in personnel. He notes that prediction platform Kalshi put the odds of Hassett becoming chair at 70% as of 2 December, and describes him as a supply-side loyalist who “champions a ‘growth-first’ philosophy, arguing that with the inflation war largely won, maintaining high real rates is an act of political obstinacy rather than economic prudence.”

A few hours after Krüger’s thread, Trump himself added fuel, telling reporters at the White House that he would announce his Fed pick “early next year” and explicitly teasing National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett as a possible choice, after saying the search had been narrowed down to one candidate.

To explain how this would translate into policy, Krüger reconstructs Hassett’s stance from his own 2024 comments. On 21 November, Hassett said “the only way to explain a Fed decision not to cut in December would be due to anti-Trump partisanship.” Earlier he argued, “If I’m at the FOMC, I’m more likely to move to cut rates, while Powell is less likely,” adding, “I agree with Trump that rates can be a lot lower.” Across the year he endorsed expected rate cuts as merely “a start,” called for the Fed to “keep cutting rates aggressively,” and supported “much lower rates,” leading Krüger to place him at 2 on a 1–10 dove–hawk scale, with 1 being the most dovish.

Institutionally, Krüger maps a concrete path: Hassett would first be nominated as a Fed governor to replace Stephen Miran when his short term expires in January, then elevated to chair when Powell’s term ends in May 2026. Powell, he assumes, follows precedent by resigning his remaining Board seat after pre-announcing his departure, opening a slot for Kevin Warsh, whom Krüger treats not as a rival but as a like-minded ally who has been “campaigning” for a structural overhaul and arguing that an AI-driven productivity boom is inherently disinflationary. In that configuration, Hassett, Warsh, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman form a solidly dovish core, with six other officials seen as movable votes and only two clear hawks on the committee.

The main institutional tail risk, in Krüger’s view, is that Powell does not resign his governor seat. He warns that this would be “extremely bearish,” because it would prevent Warsh’s appointment and leave Powell as a “shadow chair,” a rival focal point for FOMC loyalty outside Hassett’s inner circle. He also stresses that the Fed chair has no formal tie-breaking vote; repeated 7–5 splits on 50-basis-point cuts would look “institutionally corrosive,” while a 6–6 tie or a 4–8 vote against cuts “would be a catastrophe,” turning the publication of FOMC minutes into an even more potent market event.

On rates, Krüger argues that both the official dot plot and market pricing understate how far policy could be pushed lower. The September median projection of 3.4% for December 2026 is, he says, “a mirage,” because it includes non-voting hawks; by re-labeling dots based on public statements, he estimates the true voters’ median closer to 3.1%. Substituting Hassett and Warsh for Powell and Miran, and using Miran and Waller as proxies for an aggressive-cuts stance, he finds a bimodal distribution with a dovish cluster around 2.6%, where he “anchors” the new leadership, while noting that Miran’s preferred “appropriate rate” of 2.0%–2.5% suggests an even lower bias.

As of 2 December, Krüger notes, futures price December 2026 fed funds at about 3.02%, implying roughly 40 basis points of additional downside if his path is realized. If Hassett’s supply-side view is right and AI-driven productivity pushes inflation below consensus forecasts, Krüger expects pressure for deeper cuts to avoid “passive tightening” as real rates rise. He frames the likely outcome as a “reflationary steepening”: front-end yields collapsing as aggressive easing is priced in, while the long end stays elevated on higher nominal growth and lingering inflation risk.

What This Means For Bitcoin

That mix, he argues, is explosive for risk assets like Bitcoin. Hassett “would crush the real discount rate,” fueling a multiple-expansion “melt-up” in growth equities, at the cost of a possible bond-market revolt if long yields spike in protest. A politically aligned Fed that explicitly prioritizes growth over inflation targeting is, in Krüger’s words, textbook bullish for hard assets such as gold, which he expects to outperform Treasuries as investors hedge the risk of a 1970s-style policy error.

Bitcoin, in Krüger’s telling, should be the cleanest expression of this shift but is currently trapped in its own psychology. Since what he calls the “10/10 shock,” he says Bitcoin has developed “a brutal downside skew,” fading macro rallies and crashing on bad news amid “4-year cycle” top fears and an “identity crisis.” Even so, he concludes that the combination of a Hassett-led Fed and Trump’s deregulation agenda would “override the dominant self-fulfilling bearish psychology, in 2026” — a macro repricing he insists “markets aren’t ready” for yet.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $92,862

Bitcoin’s latest 30% slide hasn’t rattled Grayscale Research, which argues that the decline mirrors historical patterns and is unlikely to mark the beginning of a prolonged downturn

The Federal Reserve officially ended its QT program on Dec. 1, freezing its balance sheet at $6.57 trillion. The move signals a shift in U.S. monetary policy with significant implications for Bitcoin and broader crypto markets.

Tether, the issuer of USDT, has long been considered one of the most stable assets in the crypto market, but a recent report suggests that a crash in the Bitcoin price could jeopardize the stablecoin’s solvency. Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CIO of BitMEX, has revealed that a portion of USDT’s reserves is allocated to BTC, potentially exposing it to heightened market volatility. 

Bitcoin Price Crash To Threaten Tether USDT Stability 

In a recent report shared on X earlier this week, Hayes outlined market risks that could have a devastating impact on Tether’s USDT. The BitMEX founder explained that the stablecoin issuer has been executing a large-scale interest rate trade, likely betting on a Federal Reserve (FED) rate cut. 

He stated that the stablecoin issuer has accumulated significant positions in Bitcoin and gold to hedge against falling interest income. As a result, Hayes has warned that if Tether’s positions in both gold and Bitcoin were to decline by roughly 30%, it could wipe out its entire equity, theoretically putting USDT at risk of insolvency. 

Since stablecoins are typically backed by the US dollar, the crypto founder has stated that a severe drop in Tether’s reserve value could trigger panic amongst USDT holders and crypto exchanges. In such a scenario, they might demand immediate insight into the stablecoin issuer’s balance sheet to gauge solvency risk. Hayes has also suggested that the mainstream media could further amplify the concerns, creating widespread market alarm.  

Analyst Fires Back Against Hayes’ USDT Claims

Following Hayes’ statements on X, Tether’s USDT has come under scrutiny, with crypto analysts debating the resilience of its reserves. A former Citi Research lead, Joseph Ayoub, challenged Hayes’ claims, arguing that even if Bitcoin and gold prices were to crash 30%, a USDT insolvency remains highly unlikely. 

He highlighted that the BitMEX co-founder had missed three key points in his post. Ayoub noted that Tether’s publicly disclosed assets do not represent the entirety of its corporate holdings. According to him, when Tether issues USDT, it maintains a separate equity balance sheet that is not publicly reported. The reserve numbers that are eventually disclosed are intended to show how USDT is backed. At the same time, the company maintains a balance sheet for equity investments, mining operations, corporate reserves, possibly more Bitcoin, and the rest distributed as dividends to shareholders.

Ayoub also described Tether’s core operations as highly profitable and efficient. He stated that the company holds over $100 billion in interest-yielding treasuries, generating roughly $10 billion in liquid profit annually while operating a relatively small team. The former Citi research lead estimated that the stablecoin issuer’s equity is likely valued at between $50 billion and $100 billion, providing it with a substantial cushion against losses in its crypto and gold holdings. 

Finally, Ayoub disclosed that Tether operates like traditional banks, maintaining only 5-10% of deposits in liquid assets, while the remaining 85% are held in longer-term investments. He also noted that the stablecoin issuer is significantly better collateralized than banks, adding that with their ability to print money, bankruptcy is virtually impossible.

Bitcoin Magazine

A Pivotal Moment for Bitcoin Price

As the Federal Reserve prepares to end Quantitative Tightening (QT), the bitcoin price stands at a critical macroeconomic inflection point. With odds for a December rate cut now pricing it in as almost a certainty, the stage is set for a potential shift in monetary policy that could fundamentally alter the trajectory of Bitcoin and broader risk assets. History suggests that when the Fed’s balance sheet stops contracting, Bitcoin typically experiences significant bullish catalysts.

Balance Sheet Reversals and the Bitcoin Price

The Fed balance sheet versus Bitcoin chart reveals a compelling pattern. Over Bitcoin’s history, there have been only three previous instances where QT ended and the federal balance sheet began flatlining or expanding. The first occurred on October 27, 2010, followed almost immediately by a massive Bitcoin bull rally. The second instance on September 26, 2012, again resulted in an explosive rally into the 2013 double-peak cycle. The third signal came in 2019, though this one was complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic and initial market crash—yet it eventually drove Bitcoin from around $3,000 to over $67,000.

Business Cycle Impact on Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin’s recent stagnation despite rising Global M2 suggests that monetary liquidity alone isn’t driving prices. Instead, the asset appears increasingly correlated with traditional business cycle indicators, particularly the U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). This metric measures manufacturing confidence and economic activity, and its correlation with S&P 500 yearly returns is striking: when PMI rises, equities typically deliver outsized returns; when PMI falls, markets enter periods of underperformance or recession.

A leading indicator for PMI trends is the copper-to-gold ratio. This relationship is nearly perfectly correlated, but copper often leads, bottoming ahead of PMI rallies and topping before PMI declines. Currently, the Copper/Gold ratio appears to be bottoming out, aligning with the historical timeline of Fed balance sheet reversals. This suggests the traditional business cycle may be about to turn favorable again after a period of economic softening.

Conclusion: Next Move for Bitcoin Price

The end of QT, combined with a resurgent Copper/Gold ratio and historical precedent spanning Bitcoin’s entire existence, suggests that monetary conditions are about to become materially more favorable. While Bitcoin has recently lagged traditional assets, this underperformance appears tied to deteriorating economic confidence rather than fundamental weakness in Bitcoin itself. As both monetary policy and business cycle indicators potentially turn positive, the confluence of these forces could mark the beginning of a significant trend reversal. Bitcoin stands positioned to benefit from this dual tailwind, making the coming weeks and months critical for monitoring whether these historical signals finally translate into sustained price appreciation.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post A Pivotal Moment for Bitcoin Price first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

• A second FDIC rule on prudential requirements will follow early next year.
• The FDIC will supervise bank subsidiaries issuing payment stablecoins.
• Guidance on tokenised deposits is under development.

US regulators are moving quickly to build the country’s new stablecoin supervision system, with federal agencies preparing detailed rulemaking as the GENIUS Act begins to shape policy.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is set to publish an application framework for payment stablecoin issuers later this month, marking one of the earliest steps in implementing the law signed by President Donald Trump earlier this year.

Alongside the FDIC, the Federal Reserve, and the Treasury Department are working on their own regulatory responsibilities, signalling a coordinated effort to bring stablecoins under a clearer, more structured oversight regime.

FDIC develops licensing framework for stablecoin issuers

The FDIC has confirmed through written testimony scheduled for delivery to the House Financial Services Committee on December 2 that it is close to releasing a proposed rule outlining how payment stablecoin issuers will apply for approval.

The agency began the process earlier this year as part of its duty to implement the GENIUS Act, and the first formal proposal is expected before the end of the month.

Another proposal focusing on prudential requirements for FDIC-supervised issuers is planned for early next year.

Once the application framework is published, the agency will gather public comments before moving toward a final rule, a phase that typically spans several months.

GENIUS Act expands oversight for bank-linked stablecoins

The GENIUS Act introduces a national structure that requires federal and state regulators to coordinate their supervision of stablecoin issuers.

Under the law, the FDIC will oversee and license subsidiaries of insured depository institutions that issue payment stablecoins.

The agency will also set out capital rules, liquidity expectations, and reserve diversification standards.

Much of this work will roll out over the coming year, as several rulemakings are needed to meet the obligations laid out in the legislation.

The FDIC is also consulting recommendations released in July by the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets, which urged regulators to clarify digital asset activities allowed for banks, including asset and liability tokenisation.

Tokenised deposits included in regulatory review

In addition to its stablecoin responsibilities, the FDIC is preparing new guidance aimed at clarifying how tokenised deposits will be treated under federal regulation.

This area has gained attention as banks explore digital versions of traditional deposit products.

The forthcoming guidance is expected to help institutions understand which activities fall within supervisory boundaries and how they will be monitored.

Federal Reserve coordinates its own stablecoin standards

The Federal Reserve will join the FDIC at Tuesday’s House hearing, with Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman detailing the central bank’s work on stablecoin rules.

The Federal Reserve is coordinating with other banking regulators to craft capital, liquidity, and diversification standards required under the GENIUS Act.

The focus includes creating clarity for banks engaged in digital asset activities and providing regulatory feedback on new use cases as they emerge.

This joint push aims to ensure the banking system can support digital asset development while maintaining stability and compliance.

Other agencies are also advancing their obligations under the GENIUS Act.

The Treasury Department has already completed its public consultations, which concluded in November, and is developing its own rules.

These efforts will run in parallel with the FDIC and Federal Reserve processes, contributing to the broader national framework being built to govern stablecoins across the US.

The post Regulators ramp up US stablecoin rules as GENIUS Act takes effect appeared first on CoinJournal.

Strategy has announced a new $1.44 billion US Dollar (USD) reserve, signaling a major shift for the Bitcoin-focused treasury company.

Strategy Establishes New USD Reserve

In a new post on X, Strategy co-founder and chairman Michael Saylor has revealed the formation of a USD reserve for the firm. Worth $1.44 billion, the reserve has been established using sales of class A common stock under the company’s at-the-market (ATM) offering program.

Since pivoting to being a Bitcoin treasury company back in 2020, Strategy has focused on expanding its BTC holdings, so this USD reserve reflects a shift for the company.

The current goal for Strategy is to maintain a USD reserve that can fund at least twelve months of dividends and interest payments (collectively referred to as just “Dividends”). Eventually, the firm intends to cover 24 or more months with the dollar reserve.

According to Phong Le, the treasury company’s president and CEO, the newly established USD reserve can currently cover 21 months of Dividends. “We intend to use this reserve to pay our Dividends and grow it over time,” noted Le.

Strategy has established this reserve as Bitcoin has witnessed a bearish transition recently, with its price dropping into the low $80,000 levels from a high of $126,000 in October.

Saylor noted:

Establishing a USD Reserve to complement our BTC Reserve marks the next step in our evolution, and we believe it will better position us to navigate short-term market volatility while delivering on our vision of being the world’s leading issuer of Digital Credit.

Strategy has also updated its year-end target for Bitcoin, slashing down its $150,000 assumption to a range between $85,000 and $110,000. The update in assumption is to reflect a range more consistent with recent BTC prices, the company said in the press release.

While the USD reserve is a fresh change for the firm, it hasn’t stopped buying Bitcoin. Alongside the same announcement, Strategy has also unveiled a new BTC acquisition.

With this new purchase, the company has added 130 BTC to its treasury, spending $89,960 per token, or $11.7 million in aggregate. A relatively modest buy; in fact, the smallest acquisition by the firm since March 2025.

Strategy now holds 650,000 BTC, equivalent to 3.1% of the total Bitcoin supply cap. The company used a total of $48.38 billion to assemble these holdings, putting its cost basis per token at $74,436. At the current BTC price, the treasury is still in a profit of about 13.65%.

Saylor’s firm is by far the largest Bitcoin corporate treasury in the world, outweighing the second-placed MARA Holdings by nearly 600,000 BTC.

Bitcoin Has Plunged To $84,500

The past day has been quite bearish for Bitcoin as its price has gone through a decline of almost 8% and has erased much of its recent recovery. Initially, BTC fell toward $86,000, but it has seen another leg down to $84,500 after the Strategy USD reserve announcement, a sign that investors have taken the news negatively.

Fed injects $13.5B into banks via a large overnight repo, reviving concerns over funding stress, liquidity conditions, and potential ripple effects across asset markets. The Federal Reserve injected $13.5 billion into the U.S. banking system through overnight repurchase agreements, according…

In a strategic move, Tether has shifted its reserve strategy, reducing its exposure to treasuries while increasing allocations to Bitcoin and gold. The USDT issuer has shown a notable reduction in government debt exposure, paired with an expanded position in hard assets known for durability and independence from traditional financial systems. 

Treasury Exposure Drops Amid Changing Macro And Regulatory Landscape

Stablecoin giant, Tether, has reduced its US Treasury holdings and increased its Gold and Bitcoin reserves. CryptosRus reported on X that Tether is quietly repositioning itself for what the company expects to be the Federal Reserve’s (FED) next round of rate cuts.

Related Reading: Rumble At The Core: How Tether Plans To Dominate The US Stablecoin Market

According to BitMex founder Arthur Hayes, Tether’s latest reserve update shows a clear shift away from the US treasuries and deeper into BTC and gold, a sign that the company is positioning for a changing macro environment. Furthermore, the Standard & Poor (S&P) Global noted that Tether is now leaning more heavily into assets with larger price swings in value, warning that this mix could expose USDT if markets turn volatile. Meanwhile, the current S&P Global rating on Tether remains weak.

Thus, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has pushed back, saying that the company holds no toxic assets. He claims that its rapid growth reflects a broader shift towards new financial systems that operate outside the traditional banking world.

Why Attempts To Break Tether Are Difficult In Practice

Crypto analyst Ted Pillows has also offered insight into the Tether Fear Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) as it is making its usual rounds again. The narrative is latching onto the company’s latest attestation, showing a notable shift into Gold and Bitcoin to offset declining interest income. Meanwhile, if these risk assets drop by 30%, Tether’s equity buffer could evaporate, creating an environment where Tether will be insolvent, and panic will kick in.

Related Reading: Tether Targets $500 Billion Valuation In New Equity Offering Amid US Expansion Plans

However, Ted is steadfast and believes that Tether has been through a decade of this same FUD, and USDT is still sitting at $1.00. They’re fully liquid, but they operate on a fractional-reserve model, much like traditional banks. As long as redemptions remain normal, everything will work smoothly. A problem will only arise if there’s an irrational panic, and then liquidity stress could hit quickly. 

According to Ted, the USDT isn’t fully backed by cash, but it’s backed by a diverse portfolio that includes the US treasuries, yield-generating assets, and some risk assets. This is all scaled to a massive $174 billion stablecoin. “If someone wants to kill USDT, it’s possible, but I highly doubt it,” Ted noted.

The Fed’s top bank cop is heading to Capitol Hill with a message that boils down to: yes, banks and crypto firms can all play nicely — but rules must be followed.

Market anxiety is driving price action. Bitcoin is trading around $85,000 after a sharp single-session drop of nearly 6%, extending a decline from the October peak of around $125,000.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is currently near 20, following a trough around 10, which still indicates extreme fear. That backdrop links directly to central-bank signs, thinner liquidity, and continued long liquidations.

Bitcoin Under Policy Pressure

The Bank of Japan has been preparing markets for a shift away from ultra-easy settings, with Governor Kazuo Ueda indicating that a policy change meeting is scheduled for December, contingent on wage data. Traders have read that guidance as a potential end to the negative-rate era, which tightened financial conditions into the weekend and helped set off the slide.

On the U.S. side, Federal Reserve officials have leaned cautious on additional easing. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she would be “hesitant to ease policy further,” describing a “relatively high bar” for further moves without clearer labor-market deterioration.

The remarks of the Federal Reserve and the talk of a policy shift in Japan have pushed yields higher and firmed the dollar; the combination raises funding costs, softens futures basis toward neutral, and reduces tolerance for leverage that had supported rallies during stronger tapes.

Outflows from some spot vehicles on risk-off sessions compound that pressure because they drain cash that would otherwise stabilize closes.

What Would Ease The Strain

Crypto markets shed billions as the global market enters December 2025. More than $637 million in long positions were liquidated during the slide, and the Altcoin Season Index fell to 25, pointing to weak breadth beyond Bitcoin.

Altcoin Season Index (Source: CoinMarketCap)

A credible turn would show up together rather than in fragments. Order-book depth on the largest BTC and ETH pairs would rebuild into and after the United States session, while spreads would stay contained during moderate selling, and funding would stabilize without leaning on short squeezes that exhaust by the close.

Spot product creations would need to improve alongside a rise in net stablecoin issuance, since that pairing signs fresh cash coming in rather than transient covering. When those flows persist for several sessions, rebounds tend to settle more cleanly at the end of the day.

Central bank remarks that push yields higher or firm the dollar can keep bids soft, and relief rallies risk fading when depth thins and exchange-traded flow does not offset de-risking. The tone across majors still follows Bitcoin, and Bitcoin remains one policy headline away from another test of support.

The post Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan Indicators Hit Crypto, Market Losses Deepen appeared first on Cryptonews.

Bitcoin Magazine

Strategy ($MSTR) Creates $1.44 Billion Reserve to Calm Fears of Bitcoin Sell-Off

Strategy ($MSTR) announced Monday that it has created a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve to safeguard future dividend and interest payments, a move aimed at calming investor concerns that the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder might eventually need to sell a portion of its roughly $56 billion BTC stack if market weakness persists.

The Tysons Corner, Virginia-based firm said the reserve, funded by recent Class A common stock sales, will initially cover at least 21 months of dividend obligations. 

Over time, Strategy intends to expand the buffer to cover as much as 24 months of payments, strengthening its liquidity position as Bitcoin endures its steepest monthly decline since mid-2021.

Founder and Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said the cash reserve represents the next phase of the company’s evolution, complementing its Bitcoin holdings and reinforcing its strategy of becoming the world’s leading issuer of “Digital Credit.”

CEO Phong Le, whose comments last week sparked fears of a potential BTC sale, said the newly formed reserve sharply reduces the likelihood the company would need to liquidate any of its 650,000 BTC holdings. 

Strategy’s market value to Bitcoin (mNAV) ratio — a key metric comparing enterprise value to Bitcoin holdings — had slipped to roughly 1.2 on Monday, inching closer to a level that historically raises concern among investors.

On Friday, Le told a podcast audience that Strategy could sell Bitcoin only if mNAV dropped below 1.0, and only as a last resort.

Investors reacted sharply early Monday to a bitcoin price sell-off, sending Strategy shares down more than 6% pre-market while Bitcoin fell roughly 6%. The stock pared losses after the reserve announcement.

At the time of writing, shares of MSTR are trading at 165.84, down 6.40%.

Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation

Formerly known as MicroStrategy, the company has evolved from a business-intelligence software firm into a full-scale digital-asset-treasury vehicle, financing its Bitcoin accumulation through repeated equity raises and low-cost perpetual preferred offerings.

Its software division does not generate sufficient free cash flow to cover dividend or interest payments, while Bitcoin itself yields no income.

After a pause in purchases, Strategy added 130 BTC for $11.7 million last week, funded through new common share issuance.

Strategy’s updated forecast 

Alongside the reserve announcement, Strategy updated its 2025 guidance, acknowledging that its October forecast — based on a $150,000 year-end Bitcoin price — is no longer realistic. 

With Bitcoin recently trading between $80,660 and $111,612, Strategy now assumes a year-end price range of $85,000 to $110,000.

Under that scenario, the company expects operating income ranging from a $7 billion loss to a $9.5 billion profit—a wide spread driven by new accounting standards requiring fair-value BTC mark-to-market treatment each quarter.

Net income is projected between a $5.5 billion loss and a $6.3 billion profit, while diluted EPS could fall anywhere from –$17 to +$19 per share.

Despite market turbulence, Wall Street brokers such as Benchmark say the firm remains structurally sound, with Bitcoin unlikely to fall anywhere near the roughly $12,700 distress threshold analysts estimate would pose genuine solvency risk.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin price fell sharply to the mid-$84,000s early Monday, sliding 8% over the past 24 hours as a wave of macro anxiety, thin liquidity and fresh crypto-native stress hit markets simultaneously. 

The world’s largest digital asset traded between a 24-hour high of $91,866 and a low of $84,722, extending a two-month drawdown that has now erased more than 30% from October’s record highs, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data. 

The downturn marks a swift reversal from last week’s tentative recovery. After plunging below $81,000 on Nov. 21, the Bitcoin price steadily climbed into the end of November and briefly pushed above $92,500 during Black Friday’s morning session. 

At the time of writing, the bitcoin price is $86,469.  

This post Strategy ($MSTR) Creates $1.44 Billion Reserve to Calm Fears of Bitcoin Sell-Off first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

The crypto market has started December in the red, shedding over $200 billion in total market value to settle at $3 trillion, its lowest level over the past week. Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest crypto asset, dropped below key support…

It’s been another consequential week in Washington and beyond, with U.S. regulators sending mixed but meaningful signs across crypto, AI, and financial policy. From the SEC greenlighting a Solana-based token to the prospect of a crypto-friendly Federal Reserve chair, the regulatory climate is shifting fast—particularly as policymakers grapple with emerging technologies that are outpacing existing frameworks.

SEC Grants Fuse a Rare No-Action Letter

The big headline came from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which issued a no-action letter to Solana-based DePIN project Fuse—an unusual step for a blockchain project looking for clarity around token sales.

The SEC granted @fuseenergy a no-action letter, confirming it will not recommend enforcement if the FUSE token is sold as described.#SEC #Cryptohttps://t.co/crv9LwdICN

— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) November 25, 2025

Fuse asked the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance on Nov. 19 to confirm it would not recommend enforcement action over the offer and sale of its FUSE token. The project emphasized that FUSE isn’t pitched as a speculative asset: it’s strictly a network participation token, distributed as a reward to users who maintain the protocol’s decentralized infrastructure. The SEC agreed.

In a letter signed by deputy chief counsel Jonathan Ingram, the regulator stated it would not pursue enforcement “based on the facts presented” if Fuse adheres to the guardrails it outlined.

Additionally, the token can only be redeemed through third-party venues at market rates, showing the SEC’s focus on removing any investment-like characteristics.

This marks the second DePIN-related no-action letter in recent months. While not precedent-setting, the decision is a useful datapoint: when tokens are tightly scoped to utility and distribution is controlled, the SEC appears more open to relief. For projects building real-world infrastructure on-chain, it’s one of the clearest regulatory signs we’ve seen in months.

Trump’s Top Fed Pick Has Deep Crypto Ties

Crypto markets may soon have a sympathetic voice at the very top of U.S. monetary policy. Kevin Hassett—director of the White House National Economic Council and longtime Trump ally—has emerged as the leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair.

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, has emerged as Trump’s top Fed chair contender, putting a crypto-linked ally within reach of leading the central bank.#KevinHassett #FedChair https://t.co/Oa59lRry11

— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) November 26, 2025

What’s striking is Hassett’s history with digital assets. He has publicly engaged with the crypto sector, consulted with policy groups connected to the space, and indicated openness to digital-asset innovation.

Trump’s advisers describe him as someone whom the president trusts deeply on interest-rate policy—particularly on the question of cutting more aggressively than Powell. Hassett has also reportedly indicated he would accept the role if selected.

If appointed, this would be the most crypto-friendly Fed chair in U.S. history. While the Fed is not a crypto regulator, its stance on dollar liquidity, stablecoins, and payment systems has enormous downstream effects. A pro-innovation chair could spur greater openness across other agencies—or at the very least, reduce friction.

Bipartisan Bill Targets Rising AI-Powered Fraud

AI-generated scams are surging, and Congress is taking notice. This week, lawmakers introduced the AI Fraud Deterrence Act, a bipartisan proposal from Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA) and Rep. Neal Dunn (R-FL). The bill seeks to impose tougher penalties on crimes committed using artificial intelligence—particularly impersonation schemes, deepfakes, automated theft, and coordinated fraud rings.

U.S. lawmakers propose the AI Fraud Deterrence Act against rising AI‑powered fraud and deepfake scams.#AIFraud #CyberSecurityhttps://t.co/ciWFO9LUcf

— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) November 26, 2025

The legislation is also explicitly tied to financial markets and crypto, where AI-powered fraud is growing at an alarming rate. High-profile cases involving deepfake video scams, impersonation bots, and automated phishing rings have intensified pressure on lawmakers to intervene.

The bill’s broader message is clear: manipulation, impersonation, and automated fraud using AI tools will face harsher federal consequences. Expect this framework to evolve quickly, given the sharp rise in AI-driven schemes across exchanges and Web3 platforms.

CFTC Pushes for New Prediction Markets Framework

Finally, at the CFTC, Commissioner Caroline Pham is making moves to bring prediction markets into sharper regulatory focus.

Pham announced that the agency is seeking nominations for its new CEO Innovation Council, a body designed to advise on emerging markets and frontier financial technologies. One of the council’s early priorities will be the rapidly evolving prediction markets sector—a space that has grown too large and too influential for federal regulators to ignore.

CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham is looking for nominations to join the agency's new CEO Innovation Council.#CFTC #CarolinePhamhttps://t.co/1CDTrZtFyU

— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) November 26, 2025

Through a Nov. 25 press release, Pham invited public nominations and encouraged industry stakeholders to propose topics the council should prioritize. With prediction markets increasingly touching politics, finance, sports, and crypto, the CFTC is clearly preparing a more structured approach.

This comes as platforms like Polymarket continue to expand and attract mainstream attention, forcing regulators to reconsider how forecasting markets fit within existing derivatives law.

The Big Picture

From the SEC’s cautious openness to utility-focused tokens, to Congress tightening the screws on AI-based crime, to the CFTC’s attempt to modernize its oversight, the regulatory ecosystem is shifting in real time.

But the most consequential development may be Trump’s apparent interest in appointing a Fed chair aligned with crypto innovation. That appointment would reverberate through every corner of financial policy—from stablecoins to global dollar rails to payments innovation.

The post Weekly Crypto Regulation Roundup: SEC Clears Solana’s Fuse Token and Trump Eyes Crypto-Friendly Fed Chair appeared first on Cryptonews.

Bitcoin has not grown at the rapid rate expected so far in the cycle, and some have blamed this on the fact that the Federal Reserve has been practicing quantitative tightening. This refers to a period when the central bank is reducing its money supply in a bid to reel in excess liquidity. As a result, buying power seems to have fallen as there isn’t enough liquidity flowing into risk assets such as Bitcoin. However, this could all be changing very soon as the Fed begins to change its stance.

Quantitative Easing Could Bring About More Liquidity

After a long stretch of quantitative tightening, the Fed’s recent comments suggest that there is a move toward quantitative easing. This is expected to happen sometime in December, and it could trigger a massive shift as the market looks to close another year.

Quantitative easing, as the name suggests, is the opposite of quantitative tightening, and the former sees the Fed pump liquidity into the market. This rush in liquidity could lead to investors taking more risks, and this, in turn, would be good for assets like Bitcoin as investors move into the crypto market for the long term.

The announcement for a move to quantitative easing is expected to come on December 1, and naturally, there have been debates on its impact on the Bitcoin price. Crypto analyst and investor Ted Pillows shared a chart showing that the last time the Fed ended quantitative tightening in 2019, the Bitcoin price had suffered a notable crash.

The post suggests that this could be the case as the Fed makes its move in less than two weeks. However, this point has been countered by another crypto analyst, who pointed out the differences between what happened in 2019 and what is going on in 2025.

Why This Time Could Be Different For Bitcoin

In a response to Pillows, pseudonymous crypto analyst Sykodelic outlined that one of the very first reasons the Bitcoin price won’t crash with the announcement of quantitative easing is the fact that the Fed overdid it in 2019. According to the post, the Fed overdid quantitative tightening, which led to the 2019 repo crisis.

However, this time around, while the reserves are low, they haven’t reached danger territory. Also, with a $2 trillion fiscal deficit, the analyst explains that the US will have no choice but to stimulate the economy with liquidity, or else it risks going bankrupt.

Since the Bitcoin price already had a major drop, reaching record-breaking MACD levels, the analyst believes the chances of a drop are low. “If you are betting on a year long bear market you are basically betting that the USA will let itself go broke,” the analyst said. “There is simply no room left for the FED to turn.”

Bitcoin Magazine

Texas Becomes First U.S. State to Buy $5M of BlackRock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF

On November 20, Texas became the first U.S. state to buy Bitcoin for its Strategic Reserve, acquiring $5 million at roughly $87,000 per BTC, according to Lee Bratcher, President of the Texas Blockchain Council.

The purchase was made through BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) while the state finalizes plans for self-custody.

The move signals growing state-level interest in Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Texas had previously explored strategic Bitcoin legislation last year, wanting to create a Bitcoin reserve without using taxpayer funds. 

In June of this year, the Texas governor signed the legislation into law, creating a state Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Institutional investors are increasingly following suit. Harvard University’s endowment recently tripled its IBIT holdings to $442.8 million, making it the university’s largest publicly disclosed investment. 

Emory University and Abu Dhabi’s Al Warda Investments have also significantly increased Bitcoin ETF exposure.

Bitcoin’s price is currently trading near $87,500, roughly 30% below its all-time high. Lee Bratcher was the first to disclose this news. 

“Texas will eventual self-custody bitcoin,” Bratcher said, “but while that RFP process takes place, this initial allocation was made with BlackRock’s IBIT ETF.

Bratcher is the President and Founder of the Texas Blockchain Council, an industry association with over 100 member companies and hundreds of individuals promoting Texas as a hub for Bitcoin and blockchain innovation. 

He actively championed the state’s Bitcoin reserve legislation, working on the ground to guide it through the state Senate.

Texas isn’t the only state interested in buying bitcoin 

In the legislation explored last year, Texas State Representative Giovanni Capriglione filed a bill to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve for the state. 

The legislation proposed that the state buy and hold bitcoin as a strategic asset, store it in cold storage for at least five years, allow resident donations, and enable state agencies to accept and convert cryptocurrencies to bitcoin. 

It also mandated transparency through yearly audits and reports. Modeled after a federal proposal by President Donald Trump and Senator Lummis, the bill mirrored the growing global interest of bitcoin. 

Earlier this month, New Hampshire became the first government worldwide to approve a $100 million Bitcoin-backed municipal bond. The state’s Business Finance Authority (BFA) authorized the conduit bond, allowing private companies to borrow against over-collateralized Bitcoin held in custody, with repayment risk resting solely on the collateral. 

Borrowers must post roughly 160% of the bond’s value in Bitcoin, and automated liquidation protects bondholders if values drop. Fees and any BTC appreciation will fund the state’s Bitcoin Economic Development Fund. 

This move follows New Hampshire and Arizona’s earlier creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. 

This post Texas Becomes First U.S. State to Buy $5M of BlackRock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

• Metaplanet issues $135M in preferred shares to scale its Bitcoin treasury strategy.
• Saylor defends Bitcoin treasury models despite volatility and possible index exclusions.
• Treasury firms face premium compression as adoption slows and valuations slip below reserves.

Tokyo-listed Metaplanet has approved a ¥21.25 billion ($135 million) perpetual preferred share issuance as part of its ongoing effort to scale its Bitcoin-focused corporate treasury strategy, even as sector volatility intensifies.

The move comes amid heightened scrutiny of publicly traded firms with digital asset-heavy balance sheets and follows renewed defence of such strategies by Strategy founder Michael Saylor.

Metaplanet raises capital through perpetual preferred shares

The Japanese company’s board approved the issuance of 23.61 million Class B preferred shares on November 20 through a third-party allotment to overseas institutional investors.

Net proceeds are estimated at ¥20.41 billion ($130 million) after expenses, with payments scheduled for December 29, pending shareholder approval at an extraordinary general meeting on December 22.

The preferred shares—branded “MERCURY” (Metaplanet Convertible for Return & Yield)—carry a 4.9% fixed dividend and a conversion price of ¥1,000 per share.

Each preferred share entitles holders to annual dividends of ¥12.25 ($0.08), distributed quarterly, although the initial period ending December 31 will pay only ¥0.40 ($0.003) per share.

With the conversion price set well above Metaplanet’s November 19 closing price of ¥375 ($2.40), near-term dilution concerns remain limited.

Representative Director Simon Gerovich said the structure is designed to “minimize dilution from common share issuances while continuing to expand BTC holdings,” calling the offering a significant step in scaling Metaplanet’s Bitcoin treasury strategy.

Despite trading below the value of its Bitcoin reserves, Metaplanet has continued to build its digital asset position and recently deployed a ¥75 billion share repurchase program backed by a $500 million credit facility.

Saylor reaffirms commitment to Bitcoin treasury model

Meanwhile, Strategy founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor dismissed concerns about market turbulence during a November 14 CNBC interview.

He said Strategy “can withstand an 80%–90% drawdown and keep operating,” citing minimal leverage of just 1.15 times and long-dated debt maturities of 4.5 years.

Saylor argued that Bitcoin’s historical performance—averaging 50% annual returns over the past five years despite multiple major drawdowns—supports its role as a corporate treasury asset.

He highlighted that Strategy’s five-year performance of 71% outpaced Nvidia, asserting that no S&P 500 company has matched its returns.

However, Strategy faces potential removal from the MSCI USA and Nasdaq 100 indexes after index providers proposed excluding companies whose digital asset holdings exceed 50% of total assets.

JPMorgan estimates that MSCI exclusion alone could trigger up to $2.8 billion in passive outflows, with decisions expected by January 15.

Strategy’s stock has dropped more than 60% from its November 2024 peak but remains up over 1,300% since it began acquiring Bitcoin in August 2020.

Bitcoin treasury firms navigate premium compression

The broader Bitcoin treasury sector has entered what Coinbase Research describes as a “player-versus-player” environment.

Premiums to net asset value have compressed from 3.76 times in April to 2.8 times, while corporate Bitcoin adoption has fallen 95% since July.

Of 168 listed treasury companies, 26 now trade below the value of their digital assets.

Metaplanet was the first major firm to consistently trade below its reserves, a trend that accelerated its capital restructuring efforts.

The company plans to cap preferred share issuance at 25% of its Bitcoin net asset value, aiming to build credibility in the preferred equity market while expanding its treasury.

Strategy continues to accumulate aggressively, purchasing 8,178 Bitcoin this week at an average price of $102,171, raising its holdings to 649,870 BTC.

Saylor maintains Bitcoin will continue to outperform traditional assets, describing it as “digital capital” suited for long-term investors.

The post Metaplanet launches $135mn preferred share offering to expand Bitcoin treasury strategy appeared first on CoinJournal.