The calls of a potential Bitcoin supercycle in 2026 intensified over the past week after former Binance CEO Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao — yet another prominent voice in crypto — laid out his predictions for the new year. However, a popular analyst on the social media platform X has released an opposing view, predicting a deep bottom for the BTC price this year.

BTC Price At Risk Of Further 65% Decline

In a January 25th post on the X platform, prominent crypto trader Ali Martinez said, in a sarcastic tone, that “the super cycle is super cycling.” In what seemed like a response to the buzz around CZ’s Bitcoin supercycle projection, the market pundit tempered the expectations with a $31,000 price bottom call for the premier cryptocurrency in 2026.

This bearish prediction is based on the appearance of price fractals on the BTC chart. For context, fractals are repeating patterns in price charts that can help map and project potential price movements for a particular cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this scenario).

As observed in the chart above, the price of BTC is currently following a similar movement pattern as in 2022. The premier cryptocurrency, after initially setting a then all-time high around $67,000 in early 2021, witnessed a nearly 55% correction to just above the $30,000 level by mid-July.

While the price of Bitcoin recovered and went back to set a record high of above $69,000 by the end of 2021, the market leader spent the majority of the following year in a downward trend. Exacerbated by the various bearish events of 2022, BTC ended the year at a low of around $15,500.

Martinez believes that the Bitcoin price is undergoing a similar movement pattern, having experienced an over 32% decline before climbing to the current all-time high of $126,080. The market pundit postulates that the premier cryptocurrency is currently witnessing the extended decline that saw its price reach $15,500 in 2022.

However, it is worth mentioning that the target this time around lies at $31,800, nearly 65% drop from the current price point. Hence, if the historical patterns highlighted by Martinez are to go by, there seems to be a higher likelihood of the Bitcoin price embarking on an extended downward trend rather than a supercycle.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $88,528, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours.

“Bitcoin is the digital gold” is one of the most popular narratives in the cryptocurrency industry, reiterating BTC’s growing status as a formidable store of value. However, while the premier cryptocurrency has floundered over the past months, gold and the metals market have largely witnessed explosive growth.

These contrasting performances have led to conversations about capital rotation between Bitcoin and gold, as the crowd expects one to always outperform the other at any given time. Recent data, however, suggests that the relationship between the BTC and gold price action is overrated.

Capital Flow Link Between BTC And Gold Overestimated 

In a January 24 post on the X platform, on-chain analyst with the pseudonym Darkfost weighed in on the discourse surrounding capital rotation between gold and Bitcoin. According to the market pundit, the idea that investor funds flow from gold to Bitcoin is somewhat overblown.

To highlight this overestimation, Darkfost shared a chart showing periods where BTC outperforms or underperforms depending on gold’s trend. This chart typically provides two signals: positive (BTC above the 180-day moving average [MA] and gold below the 180-day MA) and negative (BTC below the 180-day moving average and gold below the 180-day MA).

As observed in the chart above and stated by Darkfost, the relationship between Bitcoin and gold does not appear to be fully substantiated. The on-chain analyst revealed that there have been as many positive periods as the negative ones, suggesting that the flagship cryptocurrency moves independently of gold.

Darkfost wrote:

This suggests that BTC continues to evolve independently, without clear evidence of a sustained capital rotation from gold.

Furthermore, Darkfost noted that a positive signal does not necessarily mean that capital is flowing out of gold into Bitcoin. According to the on-chain analyst, it is simply not possible to determine whether there is a capital flow relationship between the world’s largest cryptocurrency and gold.

Bitcoin & Gold Price Overview

While Bitcoin started the new year on a pretty strong note, the bullish momentum has pretty much waned over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, the gold price has continued to flourish this year, recently reaching a new all-time high above $4,900 per ounce.

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $89,230, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is nearly 30% adrift its all-time high above the $126,000 level.

The Bitcoin price action has been muted over the past few days, trading within the $90,000 and $88,000 levels. Classically, consolidation periods often precede major moves either to the upside or downside of the market.

As such, questions on the next trajectory of the flagship cryptocurrency are being asked. A latest on-chain evaluation has offered a positive prognosis on the next direction for the Bitcoin price. 

Accumulation Demand Metric Surges To All-Time-High 

In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, on-chain analyst CoinNiel hypothesized that the Bitcoin price could be at the beginning of a bullish trend. The market quant based this prognosis on two metrics — the Accumulator Address Demand and the Liquidity Inventory Ratio (month). 

The Accumulator Address Demand metric monitors the net buying pressure coming from addresses that buy Bitcoin consistently, and without any significant selling. This behavior (of buying and rarely selling) is typical of the large-scale Bitcoin holders, commonly known as the whales. 

Notably, CoinNiel also pointed out that when major withdrawals from exchanges occur, they are rarely ever incited by retailers, but by whales. As such, when the Bitcoin whales withdraw their holdings from exchanges, their buying pressure translates into an increase in the Accumulator Address Demand. 

From the chart above, the indicator has reached an all-time high level. According to the crypto pundit, this could be a sign that the whales are currently experiencing, on intense levels, the “fear of missing out.”

The second metric, the Liquidity Inventory Ratio (Month), also reinforces CoinNiel’s bullish outlook. This metric tracks and compares existing Bitcoin demand to the supply available on exchanges, showing whether demand can overwhelm available supply. 

When this ratio rises sharply, it is usually a sign that demand is absorbing newly created supply. From the data shared by the analyst, the Liquidity Inventory Ratio has also reached an extreme value of 3.8.

However, this extreme reading is only a reflection of what is happening on US exchanges. Hence, CoinNiel implied that, for the first time in years, US exchanges are recording exceptionally high demand relative to the coins available.

In theory, a 3.8 reading implies the imminence of a supply shock in the scenario where current conditions prevail. But, the analyst highlighted that it may not necessarily happen, as a 3.8 reading is more a sign of intensified whale demand than a surefire means to predict supply shocks. 

The big picture, especially when these two metrics are looked at together, appears to be distinctly bullish. This is because available data points out that the whales are likely positioning for what could be a resumed bullish trajectory for the Bitcoin price.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at $88,520, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours.

The Bitcoin price is showing signs of history repeating itself, as current price action mirrors key patterns from the 2021 cluster. With resistance near $91,000–$92,000 and the macro downtrend looming, traders are watching closely to see if BTC will break higher or face renewed pressure. The coming days could prove decisive in shaping the next major move.

Bitcoin Mirrors 2021 Cluster: History In Motion

Bitcoin continues to mirror the price patterns seen during the 2021 cluster. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital noted that the current market structure is echoing historical behavior, suggesting that similar dynamics are at play. Traders are closely watching these familiar patterns to gauge whether the cycle is repeating itself or if new trends may emerge.

The rules of the game remain consistent. A bearish acceleration would likely be triggered if Bitcoin breaks down from the macro descending triangle base, currently positioned around $82,000. Conversely, a bullish bias would require a decisive break above the macro downtrend, which sits near $100,000. These levels serve as critical decision points for the market, dictating whether bulls or bears gain control in the coming sessions.

So far, Bitcoin has encountered rejection in the high $90,000s, falling just short of the macro downtrend. This mirrors previous market behavior, in which the asset developed a basing structure near the triangle’s base before attempting to push higher toward the downtrend’s upper boundary. It demonstrates that history is repeating itself for now, with the market consolidating and preparing for its next directional move.

If the macro downtrend continues to act as resistance, the triangle’s base may gradually weaken over time. Such a development would increase the risk of further downside, making the reaction at both the base and the downtrend crucial. 

BTC Surpasses $91,000 Before Facing Selling Pressure

In a recent market update by Ted, it was noted that while Bitcoin broke above the $91,000 threshold yesterday, the rally met significant resistance. Sellers entered the market with substantial force at these local highs, effectively capping the momentum and preventing a sustained breakout.

As a result of this rejection, Bitcoin has retreated into the “no-trading zone.” Ted suggests that this period of sideways price action is likely to persist through the next couple of days, largely driven by the typical low-liquidity environment seen during the weekend.

Looking ahead, the outlook remains cautious. Ted emphasizes that any upward movements will likely be short-lived until BTC can decisively clear the $91,000 to $92,000 resistance zone. Meanwhile, such a move must be backed by strong spot demand to prove its validity.

Swiss banking giant UBS, with assets under management (AuM) of up to $7 trillion, is set to launch Bitcoin trading for some of its clients. This comes amid predictions that regulatory clarity and broader adoption could send the BTC price to as high as $200,000. 

UBS To Offer Bitcoin Trading To Some Wealth Clients

Bloomberg reported that UBS is planning to launch crypto trading for some of its wealth clients, starting with its private bank clients in Switzerland. The bank will reportedly begin by offering these clients the opportunity to invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum. At the same time, the crypto offering could further expand to clients in the Pacific-Asia region and the U.S.

The banking giant is currently in discussions with potential partners, and there is no clear timeline for when it could launch Bitcoin and Ethereum trading for clients. This move is said to be partly due to increased demand from wealth clients for crypto exposure. UBS also faces increased competition as other Wall Street giants are working to offer crypto trading. 

Morgan Stanley, in partnership with Zerohash, announced plans to launch crypto trading in the first half of this year, starting with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The banking giant may soon also be able to offer its crypto products, as it has filed with the SEC to launch spot BTC, ETH, and SOL ETFs. 

Furthermore, JPMorgan, another of UBS’ competitors, is considering offering crypto trading to institutional clients, although this plan is still in the early stages. The bank already accepts Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral from its clients. Last year, it also filed to offer BTC structured notes that will track the performance of the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF.

Can Bank’s Entry Trigger A BTC Rally To $200,000  

Kevin O’Leary predicted that Bitcoin could rally to between $150,000 and $200,000 this year, driven by the passage of the CLARITY Act. His prediction came just as White House Crypto Czar David Sacks said banks would fully enter crypto once the bill passes. As such, there is a possibility that BTC could reach this $200,000 psychological level in anticipation of the amount of new capital that could flow into BTC from these banks once the bill passes. 

BitMine’s Chairman, Tom Lee, also predicted during a CNBC interview that Bitcoin could reach between $200,000 and $250,000 this year, partly due to growing institutional adoption by Wall Street giants. Meanwhile, Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao said that a BTC rally to $200,000 is the “most obvious thing in the world” to him.

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $89,600, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin (BTC) is mirroring the same setup from its 2022 bull cycle, which led to a massive price crash to $20,000. According to market expert Crypto Bullet, this recurring structure could signal another major correction for BTC ahead. However, this time the leading cryptocurrency could give up almost a quarter of its current value. 

2022 Bitcoin Chart Pattern Signals Over 20% Crash

In his technical analysis released on X, Crypto Bullet revealed that Bitcoin is currently repeating a 2022 structure that could lead to a more than 20% decline in its value. To support his bearish outlook, the analyst presented a parallel chart comparing Bitcoin’s price action from 2023-2022 and 2025-2026, highlighting similar technical patterns, price behavior, and Moving Averages (MA). 

During the 2022 cycle, Bitcoin experienced a similar pattern, beginning with a test of the 100-day Moving Average (MA100), highlighted as the blue trendline on the chart. After facing rejection at that level, the price pulled back to a nearby support zone inside a rising channel. From there, BTC staged a sharp rally, surging to fresh highs around $48,500, where it aligned with the 200-day Moving Average (MA200), marked in orange. 

However, the recovery proved short-lived. Bitcoin soon reversed course and failed to reclaim the MA200 as support. Once the cryptocurrency’s price structure was lost, downside momentum accelerated, pushing the price into a much deeper correction toward the $20,000 level. 

According to Crypto Bullet, Bitcoin is repeating this exact pattern in 2026. It has already retested the MA100, gotten rejected, and moved lower into a support zone within a similar ascending channel. The chart also showed that in both cycles, BTC reached a “market cycle top,” first around December 2023 and then again in November 2025, before breaking down and entering a consolidation phase. 

Given how closely Bitcoin is mirroring its 2022 setup, Crypto Bullet has forecast another dramatic price crash, predicting a more than 23.5% drop from its current price near $89,500 to $68,450. Before this decline happens, the analyst expects BTC to experience a short-term recovery, potentially climbing back above the $100,000 psychological level to reach $102,000. 

Bitcoin Could Still Rally To $92,000

Crypto analyst Tyrex has stated that Bitcoin has been consolidating for the past 48 hours, with price holding above $89,000 for most of that period. Despite the muted price action, he believes that BTC could soon rally to $92,000. The analyst also noted that the broader market is in a state of fear, with many traders anticipating further declines in Bitcoin.

However, the analyst cautions that this expected drop may be a trap. He points out that an ascending channel is forming on Bitcoin’s chart, prompting him to adopt a more bullish outlook despite the prevailing bearish sentiment and sideways price movement.  

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Over the past week, the price of Bitcoin faced a significant setback in its goal of reclaiming the six-figure threshold. The flagship cryptocurrency has been hovering around the $90,000 mark, as the market can’t seem to make a decision concerning the next price direction.

As Bitcoin faced a mild sell-off, which, in turn, drove its price to fall from its recent highs, specific market participants were under severe pressure, including the miners. Interestingly, a recent on-chain evaluation has raised the possibility that miners’ stress might be ending soon.

Miner Financial Health Flashes Classic Reversal Sign

In a January 23 post on the social media platform X, market expert Axel Adler Jr highlighted that the Bitcoin miners might have started their post-capitulation recovery journey. The relevant indicator here is the Miner Financial Health Index (7D-SMA). 

For context, this metric tracks the balance between miner revenue and miner selling pressure. Hence, it reflects whether miners are net BTC distributors or accumulators. Simply put, the metric shows if Bitcoin miners are under pressure, stable, or even profitable. 

Capitulation events often reflect on the Miner Health Index as a negative value, as the amount of BTC spent surpasses the amount of BTC earned. On the other hand, miners are typically said to be in the recovery phase when the balance between revenue and spending starts to lean away from the negative.

From the chart shared by the analyst, it is apparent that the index has taken on an uptrend, targeting neutral levels on the metric’s charts. History shows that the index does not merely target the neutral mark when it trends upward.

Hence, if history were to repeat itself, the Bitcoin miners could be in for a rewarding ride, having survived the most recent capitulation event. Interestingly, the price of Bitcoin appears to have a directly proportional relationship with the Miner Health Index.

Bitcoin Price Gathers Momentum As Market Condition Shifts

In a separate post on X, Bitcoin Vector highlighted that Bitcoin might be garnering strength for a significant move in the near term. According to the analytics platform, this development coincides with the market exiting what was previously a “high-risk environment.”

Bitcoin Vector explained that this exit from a risky market environment was last seen in April 2025, just before the bull run resumed. The on-chain analytics firm explained that we could be witnessing the late stages of a classic momentum bottoming pattern, which historically leads to large rallies. 

Essentially, there has to be one last push lower in price and, at the same time, a momentum boost to the upside, for the bullish signal to be completely formed. As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at around $89,830 with no significant movement in the past 24 hours.

The Bitcoin price had a relatively rough trading period over the past week, as it hovered around the psychological $90,000 mark. The flagship cryptocurrency, which looked set for a return to six-figure valuation barely over a week ago, now seems to have lost all its bullish momentum.

Broadly speaking, these recent struggles put to rest questions around the “relief rallies” to the upside, and correlate more with the current bear market structure. However, the latest on-chain evaluation shows that the Bitcoin price woes could worsen from here on out.

Expert Explains Why $60,000 Is Possible For BTC Price

In a recent post on the X platform, Alphractal CEO and founder Joao Wedson said that the Bitcoin price could still have room to fall below the $60,000 level. This not-so-optimistic prediction is based on the number of days Bitcoin has traded at prices higher than today.

According to Wedson, there have been 355 days when the Bitcoin price has traded at levels higher than today. This figure was derived from the “Days Spent at a Profit” metric, which tracks the number of days in Bitcoin’s history where the market price was higher than the current price.

This indicator measures how much price action — in the past — has occurred above the current price level. From a historical standpoint, an increase in the number of “Days Spent at a Profit” tends to occur during bear cycles or extended periods of sideways movement, implying that different investor groups are holding BTC at a price higher than their cost bases.

As Wedson highlighted, the “Days Spent at a Profit” metric reached around 775 days as the Bitcoin price approached a bottom. Going by this historical context, the current level of this indicator (355 days) suggests that the flagship cryptocurrency is still a distance away from extreme levels often associated with bearish market bottoms.

Ultimately, this deduction means that the price of Bitcoin could still be at risk of an extended decline over the next 300 days. According to the Alphractal, this extended period of price decline could see BTC revisit $60,000, potentially triggering significant liquidations among retail investors and institutional players who entered the market post-ETF.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $89,900, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours. However, the market leader is currently down by over 5% on the weekly timeframe, while nearly 30% adrift its all-time high of $126,080.

The price of Bitcoin registered a hot start to the new year, making a run to reclaim the highly coveted $100,000 level in the early days of January. While the premier cryptocurrency has cooled off over the past few days, optimism has never been this high in the market over the last couple of months. Adding to this optimism is Binance’s co-founder and former CEO, Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao, who predicted an extremely positive outlook for Bitcoin in 2026.

BTC Could Abandon 4-Year Cycle Theory In 2026: CZ

In a CNBC interview at the World Economic Forum, CZ said that he has “strong feelings” that the Bitcoin price will enter a supercycle in 2026. This prediction came as a response to the interviewer’s question about Zhao’s Bitcoin price outlook.

In an economic context, a supercycle refers to an extended period characterized by the explosive growth of an asset or sector. Unlike a typical short-term rally triggered by hype and speculation, supercycles signal a significant shift underpinned by strong fundamentals over an extended period.

Zhao explained to the interviewer that the price of Bitcoin moves in a four-year cyclical pattern, spanning periods of all-time highs and cycle lows. However, the former Binance CEO agreed with the ongoing narrative that believes that the premier cryptocurrency will break the four-year cycle theory this year.

When asked about his strategy and current portfolio, CZ mentioned that he doesn’t trade the crypto market but rather accumulates coins with long-term promise. Specifically, the prominent crypto leader said that he keeps accumulating Bitcoin and BNB, the Binance ecosystem’s native token.

In his interview, CZ also talked about life after his four-month stint in jail, mentioning his work with YZi Labs, Giggle Academy, and as a crypto advisor to various governments. Zhao, who received a pardon from United States President Donald Trump in October 2025, clarified the rumors around receiving clemency for violating the US Bank Secrecy Act.

It is worth noting that CZ is not the first personality in the crypto space to speak about the Bitcoin price abandoning the halving-associated four-year cycle for a supercycle. Fidelity Labs managing partner, Parth Gargava, had echoed a similar sentiment about the BTC market earlier in the new year.

Gargava highlighted three drivers as the factors behind the transition from the typical four-year cycle to a supercycle. “Steady buy-in by institutions focused on ETFs, policy, and market maturation and changing correlations,” the Fidelity executive listed as the catalysts behind the shifting market landscape.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $89,460, reflecting no significant movement in the past day.

Bitcoin’s push to $97,600 last week drew a burst of bullish options activity, but Glassnode argues the derivatives tape looked more like short-dated positioning than broad-based conviction. In a Jan. 23 thread, the on-chain analytics firm pointed to a split between front-end call demand and longer-dated risk pricing that stayed anchored in downside protection.

“Let’s deep dive into options market behavior during last week’s move to 97.6K, and how options metrics help gauge conviction behind the move,” Glassnode wrote. The core takeaway: upside flow showed up, but it didn’t meaningfully change how the market priced risk further out the curve.

What Bitcoin Traders Can Learn From Last Week’s Rally

Glassnode first focused on near-term skew. Around mid-January, BTC rose roughly 8% over a few days, and the 1-week 25-delta skew moved sharply toward neutral from “deep put territory.” That kind of front-end shift can look like a market flipping bullish—until you check whether the same repricing is happening in longer expiries.

“Careful though,” Glassnode warned. “Near-dated call demand is often misread as directional conviction.” The thread paired that point with flow data: the options volume put/call ratio dropped from 1 to 0.4, signaling a surge in call activity. But, as Glassnode framed it, the question is not whether calls were bought, but how short-dated that demand actually was.

The longer-dated picture was notably less enthusiastic. Glassnode said the 1-month 25-delta skew “only moved from 7% to 4% at the low,” staying in put asymmetry even as the 1-week skew fell from 8% to 1%. On the 3-month 25-delta skew, the shift was even smaller (less than 1.5%) and it “stayed firmly in put territory,” continuing to price asymmetric downside.

For Glassnode, that divergence matters because it separates “flow” from “risk pricing.” Upside participation can be real, but if the market does not reprice skew across maturities, it suggests traders are not extending that optimism into a higher-conviction, longer-horizon view.

The volatility tape reinforced the same message. “Layering in ATM implied volatility, we see vol being sold as price moved higher,” Glassnode wrote. “Gamma sellers monetized the rally. This is not the volatility behavior typically associated with sustained breakouts.”

That combination: front-end call demand alongside vol supply can align with tactical positioning rather than a regime change. It can also leave spot moves more vulnerable if follow-through buying does not materialize once short-dated structures roll off.

Glassnode closed with a checklist for what a cleaner breakout would look like: “An ideal breakout setup combines spot pressing key levels, skew pointing higher with conviction across maturities, and volatility being bid. Last week’s move didn’t meet those conditions.”

For traders watching whether BTC can revisit $97,600, the thread’s implication is straightforward: monitor whether longer-dated skew begins to lift out of put territory and whether implied volatility starts to get bid, not sold, as spot tests key levels again.

At press time, BTC traded at $89,297.

Litecoin is once again at a critical crossroads, with its long-term structure remaining intact after years of successful defenses. However, the margin for error is thin. As price hovers near key levels, $63 has emerged as the line bulls must protect. A break below it could shift momentum sharply, while holding above keeps the broader bullish structure alive and sets the stage for the next decisive move.

Structure Gives Way, Expansion Phase Begins

Columbus’s latest LTC update highlights that the multi-year compression that previously capped price action has finally resolved, resulting in a clean break of the long-term chart setup. This structural change confirms a shift from a neutral state to a clearly bullish one.

The current price action is described as a pause before expansion rather than the conclusion of the rally. In this phase, Litecoin is holding steady above old resistance levels, allowing the market to load for the next leg of the move, turning previous barriers into new support. Litecoin’s projected path forward is based on the typical behavior of expansion cycles following structural breaks. 

The strategy follows a clear three-step progression: the initial breakout, followed by the current phase of acceptance. Once the market fully accepts these new price levels, the “real move” begins, representing a phase where the most significant gains are expected to materialize.

The 9-Year Trendline That Still Controls Litecoin

Matthew Dixon highlighted the immense historical significance of the Litecoin long-term trend line. This line has acted as an unbreakable floor for nine years, with the price never closing below it. While the market has dipped under this line multiple times in the past, every attempt to break down has ultimately failed, maintaining a remarkably consistent structural defense.

Currently, the market environment is putting this nearly decade-long support to the test once again. Dixon emphasizes that we cannot rely on intra-month volatility to determine the outcome. Instead, the definitive signal rests solely on the monthly candle close. This closing price will serve as a macro-economic pivot point that dictates the primary direction for the coming months.

A successful hold above the trend line would be a powerful bullish confirmation, suggesting the long-term uptrend remains intact despite external pressures. Conversely, a confirmed close below this line would shift the narrative to bearish, marking a historic breakdown of a nine-year support system.

Specific technical triggers are also in play, particularly the $63 level. Dixon warns that falling below $63 would be devastating, as it would effectively nullify the hidden bullish divergence currently supporting the price. Given these risks, Dixon recommends exercising patience until the monthly close or ensuring strict stop losses are in place for any active trades.

The US crypto market has welcomed a new entrant as 21Shares rolls out its Spot Dogecoin ETF, giving investors another avenue to engage with the infamous dog-themed meme coin. Trading kicked off amid a mix of curiosity and caution, with on-chain data already showing how much the DOGE ETF has performed so far. 

21Shares Launches Dogecoin ETF

In a press release on Thursday, January 22, 21Shares announced the official launch of its Spot Dogecoin ETF, TDOG, which began trading on NASDAQ the same day. The new ETF provides investors with direct exposure to Dogecoin through a fully backed, regulated, and transparent vehicle. Each ETF share is also backed 1:1 by DOGE held in institutional-grade custody. 

Notably, the launch of the new TDOG ETF brings the total number of US Dogecoin ETFs to three, joining Grayscale’s GDOG and Bitwise’s BWOW. 21Shares is also the only ETF provider endorsed by House of Doge, the official corporate arm of the Dogecoin foundation, highlighting the global asset manager’s close ties to the meme coin. 

As one of the largest crypto ETF issuers, 21Shares continues to expand its crypto product lineup with the introduction of TDOG. This follows the investment company’s previous ETF offerings, including TSOL, a Solana ETF released in November 2025; ARKB, a Spot Bitcoin ETF launched in January 2024; and TETH, an Ethereum ETF introduced in July of the same year. Together, these products demonstrate 21Shares’ commitment to providing institutional-grade access to high-demand digital assets. 

Federick Brokate, Global Head of Business Development at 21Shares, highlighted DOGE’s large and active global community, calling it a unique digital asset with constantly growing use cases. He added that the new TDOG ETF will give investors regulated, physically backed exposure through a familiar ETF structure they know and trust. 

Marco Margiotta, the CEO of House of Doge, also shared comments on the recently launched 21Shares ETF. He said that TDOG is a step toward making Dogecoin easier to access through traditional financial systems. He also disclosed that House of Doge’s partnership with 21Shares will help more people get involved as the Dogecoin ecosystem grows. 

How 21Shares Dogecoin ETF Has Performed So Far

Contrary to expectations, 21Shares’ recently launched Dogecoin ETF saw weak performance on the first day of trading, signaling investors’ lack of interest in the investment product. Data from SoSoValue shows that TDOG experienced no inflows on January 22 and instead declined by about 0.07%. Despite it being the second day of trading, the DOGE ETF has still not registered any flows. 

This lackluster performance has been observed across all Dogecoin ETFs this week. Grayscales’ GDOG and Bitwise BWOW have reported zero inflows over the last week. The last time GDOG saw positive activity was on January 8, when it received around $333,083 in investments. Before that, the ETF recorded its highest inflows on January 2, totaling roughly $2.3 million. Since its launch in November 2025, GDOG ETF inflows have been unstable, with more days of inactivity than significant investment. 

Michael Saylor says Strategy’s evolving capital-markets machine is starting to resemble a “central bank of Bitcoin,” positioning the company as a conduit between traditional money markets and the Bitcoin network. In an interview with Gatecast, the Strategy executive chairman argued the firm’s shift toward perpetual preferred equity and “digital credit” instruments is designed to fund continuous bitcoin accumulation while stripping out refinancing risk.

Saylor traced the company’s pivot to the COVID-era shock of 2020, when “the physical economy of the world came to a grinding halt and the financial system was turned upside down.” Facing what he framed as an existential decision, he said Strategy discovered Bitcoin during “the war on COVID and the war on currency,” and used it to “escape a pretty miserable existence and turned into something digital and modern and much better.”

Strategy Is Building A ‘Central Bank of Bitcoin’

That transformation now sits on a scale Saylor claims is often misunderstood. Addressing criticism that Strategy is simply levering up to buy more Bitcoin, he said the firm has raised roughly $44 billion over the past year and a half and characterized “most of that” as equity rather than debt. “There isn’t really leverage,” Saylor said. “Equity is capital that you have forever. We’re funneling that capital into the crypto economy. We’re buying Bitcoin.” He added that Strategy has acquired “about $48 billion worth of Bitcoin” across “like 88 different transactions,” purchasing “as soon as we raise the capital.”

When asked whether Strategy is still just a buyer or something closer to a “shadow central bank of Bitcoin” given its holdings, Saylor leaned into the analogy. “Bitcoin is digital capital. It is the world reserve capital network. It’s replaced gold as the global non-sovereign store of value for the human race,” he said. Then came the framing: “Banks normally buy credit. We actually sell credit. So what we’re doing is the reverse of commercial banking, retail banking. It is sort of like central banking. We are sort of like the central bank of Bitcoin.”

Saylor’s “central bank” claim hinges on a product stack meant to translate Bitcoin’s balance-sheet asset into yield-bearing instruments for investors who won’t hold BTC directly. He described STRC as “a currency that’s pegged to the dollar” and “backed […] with Bitcoin,” with proceeds recycled into BTC purchases. In his telling, that mechanism links “the Bitcoin economy” to “the traditional finance economy and to the money markets of the world.”

Michael Saylor: “We are sort of like the central bank of Bitcoin.” pic.twitter.com/IyZ9EHLAQn

— TFTC (@TFTC21) January 22, 2026

The more material shift, he argued, is Strategy’s progression away from maturity-driven debt toward perpetual structures. Saylor laid out a four-stage evolution: initial use of credit and leverage, a senior note secured by BTC collateral that the company later refinanced and vowed not to repeat, then non-recourse convertible bonds, an approach he said became constrained by market size and retail inaccessibility and finally “digital credit,” which he described as “an equity […]a perpetual preferred equity.”

In one of his clearest statements of intent, Saylor said Strategy’s priority is to prevent principal from ever coming due. “We don’t want to have leverage. We want to have amplification via equity. We never want the principal to come due. We’d rather pay a higher dividend forever,” he said. “I’d rather pay 10% forever than pay 5% for 5 years.” Strategy, he added, has “announced a $1.44 billion cash reserve for the dividends,” giving it “the option to not raise any capital in the capital markets for up to two years,” and in his view “effectively stripped the credit risk off of the business.”

Saylor also pitched liquidity as a differentiator. He said Strategy has raised $7 billion over the last nine months via these instruments and described an emerging market of about $8 billion outstanding. Where preferred stocks typically trade thinly, he argued Strategy’s “digital credit instruments were trading 30 million a day,” with “Stretch […] more than a hundred million a day,” which he framed as a step-change in market access.

The firm’s investor pitch, as Saylor described it, splits the world into capital and credit buyers. “Bitcoin is digital capital. The world will be built on digital capital. But the world will run on digital credit,” he said, arguing that products like Stretch can offer a money-market-like alternative “powered by digital capital” while sidestepping Bitcoin’s volatility.

At press time, BTC traded at $89,250.

Bitcoin’s price is fluctuating below the $90,000 mark as volatility increases across the entire cryptocurrency market. During the bearish price action, attention is now being shifted to the cautious signal from the Bitcoin Open Interest in BTC terms, which has remained below past all-time high in years.

Open Interest Tells A Different Story When Measured In BTC

Amid the ongoing volatile action of the crypto market, the derivatives market for Bitcoin is providing a more subdued message. This message is unfolding on the Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) in BTC terms as outlined in a recent research by Joao Wedson, a market expert and founder of the Alphractal analytics platform.

In the report shared on the X platform, the market expert highlighted that the open interest measured in BTC terms has failed to reach new all-time highs since 2022. The BTC-based perspective shows a more restricted usage of leverage over cycles, whereas dollar-denominated measures frequently climb in tandem with price.

On Thursday, the metric experienced a bounce, but Wedson stated that the upward move was mainly in USD-dominated open interest. This pattern suggests that traders are becoming more cautious in the market by allocating capital more carefully as opposed to putting it all into risky positions.

According to the expert, the trend simply suggests that speculation is present in the market and it’s currently expanding. However, the chart shows that the broader market is still far from any form of extreme or irrational euphoria. 

Not Enough Profit To Trigger A Bullish Recovery

BTC’s inability to produce another major rally is linked to the level of investors in profit. Darkfost stated that there are still not enough investors in profit to hope for a sustainable bullish recovery. Thus, it is crucial to understand that latent profits are not harmful to a market; it is quite the opposite.

When investors are most in profit, the situation is much more comfortable, which motivates them to hold. However, this only holds up to a certain point. Also, when the supply in profit surpasses 95% or even 100%, latest profits begin to impact the market and may trigger essential corrective phases.

The ongoing correction remained moderate with a drawdown to around 31%, but it was able to sharply reduce the percentage of supply in profit, suggesting very late entry by many investors. Currently, over 71% of BTC is in profit after dropping as low as 64%, a very concerning level that has typically been observed only when Bitcoin was entering a bear market. 

However, in Darkfost’s view, the market must reclaim above 75% supply in profit to regain a more stable structure. As long as it stays above this level, the supply in profit has historically been associated with positive periods, as shown in the chart. 

With the recent price rebound, the supply in profit saw a brief climb back to 75% before getting rejected. Meanwhile, many BTC investors possibly used this opportunity to exit at break-even or to cut their losses.

Dogecoin’s attempt to join the institutional ETF lineup is running into a basic problem: institutions may not want it. In a Jan. 22 conversation on the Crypto Prime podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart and host Nate Geraci who is also the President of NovaDius Wealth Management said spot Dogecoin ETFs have attracted “near zero” demand so far, an outcome they tied to who typically buys DOGE, and how financial advisers think about reputational risk inside client portfolios.

The Dogecoin datapoint landed inside a broader discussion about a crowded crypto ETF pipeline. Seyffart said his running tally of crypto ETF filings has climbed “over 150 unquestionably,” with many products spanning spot and derivatives, income overlays, buffers, and multi-asset structures. The surge, he argued, looks like issuers “throw[ing] the spaghetti at the wall” in 2026.

Dogecoin ETF Reality Check

But volume of filings doesn’t guarantee demand, and Dogecoin is the clearest example offered of that gap thus far. Pressed on which existing products stood out, Seyffart said “nothing really stands out,” before singling out Dogecoin as the exception, precisely because it has not resonated.

“The real honest answer is like nothing really stands out to me […] honestly if I have to pick one thing that kind of stands out, it’s probably that the Doge ETFs have gotten almost no interest whatsoever,” he said. He added that while some newer altcoin products have done “decently well,” Dogecoin has not.

My conversation w/ @JSeyff on current state of crypto ETFs…

We discuss: -Crypto ETF sentiment -150+ crypto-related ETF filings -Morgan Stanley crypto ETFs -BlackRock’s next move -Index & active crypto ETFs -Recent flows -What’s nexthttps://t.co/2TzJAnKXuK

via @CryptoPrimePod pic.twitter.com/mtDuuDirB7

— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) January 22, 2026

Seyffart and Geraci converged on a demand thesis: the marginal buyer of DOGE likely already has the tooling and habit set to buy it directly, rather than through an ETF wrapper.

“I remember talking to the guys at Bitwise. I was like, I don’t think anyone’s going to buy this,” Seyffart said. “But maybe I’m wrong. I’ve been wrong plenty of times before. But I mean, literally no one has bought like the Doge ETFs […] I had pretty low expectations, but I thought maybe they could get to a point where they’re slightly profitable.”

Seyffart pointed to Bitwise’s product—ticker BWOW—as an early scoreboard: “it’s under a million in assets right now,” he said, calling that “near zero demand.” He cautioned the funds are still new, noting the Bitwise product launched at the end of November, but framed the initial traction as “very minuscule.”

Geraci’s explanation was blunter: ”The people who buy that, in general, these are degens and they already know how to access this. They already have digital wallets. They don’t need an ETF to access this […]. And I think that’s going to be a lot of these other coins that are much further down the market cap spectrum.”

Geraci argued Dogecoin faces an additional headwind that doesn’t show up in crypto-native narratives but matters in the ETF market: advisers.

“The other aspect here […] is what I call client statement risk,” Geraci said. “So financial advisors, they’re the biggest driver of ETF flows. And so let’s take Dogecoin as an example […] If you’re a financial adviser and you have a Dogecoin ETF show up on a client statement […] it’s like a flashing red light saying, ‘Please fire me and go find another adviser.’”

That framing matters because the episode repeatedly returned to distribution realities. Seyffart said he’s most excited about basket and index-style crypto ETFs, in part because advisers don’t want to “pick those winners and losers” across a growing long tail of assets. In Geraci’s view, a basket is the “easy button” for professional allocators who want crypto exposure without underwriting each token’s story or defending it to clients.

Seyffart also suggested “what the actual chain is doing” can shape adviser appetite, contrasting niche infrastructure plays such as Chainlink, which he described as connecting DeFi and TradFi, against meme assets like DOGE, which he implied may be less “appetizing” for ETF buyers.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.12479.

Key takeaways

• BTC is down less than 1% as the market remains choppy. 
• The leading cryptocurrency could retest the $87k support level before rallying higher. 

BTC’s price action remains choppy

The cryptocurrency market continues to underperform as BTC and the other leading coins are in the red. Bitcoin has lost 0.7% of its value in the last 24 hours and is now trading around $89,150. 

The broader cryptocurrency market is attempting to stabilize after this week’s sell-off. Bitcoin price started the week on a negative note, closing below key support levels: the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $91,942.

The bulls attempted to defend the $90k psychological level but failed, with Bitcoin retesting the midpoint of a horizontal parallel channel at $87,787 before embarking on a recovery. At the time of writing on Friday, BTC is trading at around $89,175.

Will Bitcoin recover above $91k soon?

If the recovery continues, Bitcoin could extend its rally towards the first major resistance and the 50-day EMA at $91,942.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is 39, pointing upward toward the neutral 50 level, indicating fading bearish momentum. For the bullish momentum to be sustained, the RSI must move above the neutral level. 

Despite that, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator showed a bearish crossover on Tuesday, suggesting a mild downward pressure.

If the recovery fails and Bitcoin’s daily candle closes below the $87,787 support level, it could extend the fall toward the lower consolidation boundary at $85,569. 

Currently, the market conditions are choppy, with no clear direction in sight. Bitcoin has eliminated most of the gains it accumulated earlier this month, thanks to the trade tensions between the United States and the European Union (EU) regarding Greenland. 

However, while the issue seems to be resolved, Bitcoin’s performance has not significantly improved.

The post Bitcoin price forecast: BTC stays below $90k as recovery signs slow down appeared first on CoinJournal.

Crypto researcher Axel has provided insights into why the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana prices are still crashing. This comes as BTC continues to see a supply overhang, which threatens to put more downward pressure on crypto prices. 

Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana Prices Are Still Crashing

In a research report, Axel noted that anomalous exchange inflows accompanied the BTC breakdown below the $90,000 zone as sellers prepared in advance. The market is also still at risk of further selling pressure as the 1.0 level of the short-term holders’ SOPR is now acting as a resistance rather than support. As such, there is a possibility that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana prices will decline further. 

Further commenting on Bitcoin netflows into exchanges, Axel noted that between January 20 and 21, almost 17,000 BTC flowed into exchanges, coinciding with BTC dropping to as low as $87,000, while Ethereum and Solana prices also dropped. The crypto researcher explained that these anomalously high values followed a period of predominantly negative netflow in the first half of this month. 

In the context of the falling Bitcoin price, Axel stated that such a spike is more likely to reflect supply preparation than neutral transfers. In other words, the breakdown below $90,000 appears to be structural rather than emotional. Meanwhile, Bitcoin netflow returned to neutral levels yesterday, but the accumulated inflow still creates a supply overhang, which could lead to further declines in the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. 

Axel noted that a signal of improvement would be if netflow turns negative again amid rising prices, which could indicate that the overhang has cleared. However, with the short-term holders’ 7-day SMA SOPR below 0.996, the crypto researcher suggested that BTC faces increased selling pressure on every recovery as these holders look to sell at breakeven. He added that a reversal trigger could be confirmed if the SOPR breaks above 1.0 from below, with the 7-day SMA holding unity for three to five days to filter out false spikes after the selloff. 

Why A Break Above $100,000 Looks Unlikely For Now

In its latest research report, on-chain analytics platform Glassnode explained that a Bitcoin rally above $100,000 looks unlikely for now as the supply overhang persists. They noted how this overhang supply above $98,000 remains the dominant sell-side force capping short to mid-term rebounds. 

Alluding to the Unspent Realized Price Distribution metric, Glassnode noted that the recent BTC rally has partially filled the prior air gap between $93,000 and $98,000, driven by redistribution from top buyers into newer market participants. 

However, the unresolved supply overhang is expected to likely cap attempts above the $98,400 short-term holders’ cost basis and the $100,000 level. A meaningful and sustained acceleration in demand momentum is said to be required for a clean breakout above $100,000 to occur.

Qubic says it is now building a Dogecoin mining integration, a step that moves the project’s post-Monero “attention” narrative into an implementation phase and reopens a familiar set of security questions around majority-hashrate risk.

In an X post shared Thursday, Qubic wrote: “The community didn’t hesitate. The vote was decisive: DOGE won with 301 votes. This isn’t a plug-and-play upgrade. Integrating ASIC hardware into uPoW requires real engineering, deep protocol work, and time to do it right. But the upside is significant. DOGE represents one of the largest and most established mining economies in crypto. Bringing it into Qubic’s useful Proof-of-Work model extends uPoW beyond theory, into scale. […] Development is underway. This is just the beginning of what is to come.”

Dogecoin mining integration is actively in development.

The community didn’t hesitate. The vote was decisive: #DOGE won with 301 votes.

This isn’t a plug-and-play upgrade.

Integrating ASIC hardware into uPoW requires real engineering, deep protocol work, and time to do it… pic.twitter.com/7aBgxfLdDR

— Qubic (@_Qubic_) January 22, 2026

Could Dogecoin Suffer A 51% Attack?

The announcement lands with baggage. In August 2025, Qubic ran what it publicly described as a Monero “takeover demonstration,” claiming it had achieved “over 51% hashrate dominance” during parts of the experiment and reporting a brief chain disruption that included a six-block reorganization and orphaned blocks. That episode became a lightning rod for the broader PoW security debate: how quickly external incentives can concentrate hashpower, and how markets react when “51%” enters the conversation.

Subsequent research challenged the strongest interpretation of those claims. A December 2025 paper reconstructing Qubic-attributed activity on Monero describes the operation as an advertised “selfish mining campaign,” finding Qubic’s hashrate share rising into the 23–34% range in detected intervals, while “sustained 51% control is never observed.”

Dogecoin’s mining economy is structurally unlike Monero’s CPU-oriented RandomX landscape. Dogecoin uses Scrypt and has, since 2014, supported merged mining alongside Litecoin, an architecture that has historically helped bolster its security budget by tapping into a broader Scrypt ASIC miner base.

That hardware reality is central to Qubic’s own messaging. The project said “integrating ASIC hardware into uPoW requires real engineering, deep protocol work, and time to do it right,” explicitly acknowledging that this is not a simple pool launch.

It is also where most of the immediate 51% attack fears run into friction. In an August 2025 research note, published when Qubic first began floating Dogecoin as the “next” network after Monero, 21Shares argued that a brute-force Dogecoin majority would be economically prohibitive, estimating that Qubic would need to match and then exceed roughly 2.78 PH/s, implying about $2.85 billion in hardware plus roughly $2.5 million per day in electricity (before logistics).

The more plausible risk vector, if any, is not Qubic buying its way to majority hashrate, but whether it can engineer incentives and integrations that convince existing Scrypt ASIC operators to route meaningful hashpower through a Qubic-mediated setup, an approach 21Shares characterized as “vampire mining.”

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.12521.

21Shares has announced the launch of the first spot DOGE Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) backed by the Dogecoin Foundation, aiming to offer investors regulated, physically backed access to the largest memecoin by market capitalization.

Dogecoin Goes From Memecoin To Wall Street

On Wednesday, financial services company 21Shares announced the launch of its 21Shares Dogecoin ETF (TDOG) on Nasdaq to provide “a new way to gain physically-backed DOGE exposure in traditional portfolios.”

According to the announcement, the firm’s DOGE ETF is the only investment product of its category to be officially endorsed by the Dogecoin Foundation, the nonprofit organization dedicated to supporting the ecosystem’s development.

Notably, two other spot DOGE ETFs are live: Grayscale’s GDOG and Bitwise’s BWOW. As reported by NewsBTC, the funds debuted in late November, becoming the first DOGE ETFs in the US market.

TDOG’s launch builds on 21Shares’ collaboration with the House of Doge, the corporate arm of the foundation supporting the ecosystem, to create new opportunities across the Dogecoin ecosystem.

The newly launched product will offer investors direct exposure to DOGE through a fully backed, transparent, and exchange-traded vehicle, holding the asset on a 1:1 basis in institutional-grade custody.

Regarding its decision to launch a DOGE ETF, 21Shares affirmed that the memecoin “captures the spirit of internet culture and continues to evolve in our digital economy.” Moreover, the firm argued that it has “helped onboard many new users to crypto, and for many people, this may serve as their first step into crypto.”

Federico Brokate, 21Shares’s Global Head of Business Development, stated that “Dogecoin is a unique asset with a global community and expanding real-world use cases,” adding that “TDOG offers investors regulated, physically backed exposure to DOGE through an ETF structure they already understand and trust.”

DOGE Prepares For New Rally

Analyst Bitcoinsensus suggested that the leading memecoin “could be on for a massive rally to the upside” based on its performance throughout this cycle. The market watcher explained that the cryptocurrency has been experiencing “mini cycles” since 2023, which have led to “bigger and bigger rallies.”

According to the chart, after its late 2022 pump, Dogecoin consolidated within a tight range before a 190% breakout in early 2024. Similarly, the memecoin repeated the same pattern throughout 2024, accumulating for months before a 480% breakout at the end of that year.

Now, DOGE has been consolidating within the $0.125-$0.280 price range for nearly a year, leading the analyst to believe that a breakout towards a higher target near the $0.750 level is possible.

Meanwhile, Trader Tardigrade also suggested that Dogecoin may be preparing for a massive breakout as it appears to be following its performance between late 2022 and 2024.

At the time, the cryptocurrency had apparently bottomed out but ultimately recorded another local low before reversing. Based on this, the analyst affirmed that the memecoin “might see a slightly lower low” in the coming weeks, before the next massive surge occurs.

As of this writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.1249, a 1.75% decline in the daily timeframe.

Dogecoin started a recovery wave above the $0.120 zone against the US Dollar. DOGE is now facing hurdles near $0.1280 and might struggle to continue higher.

• DOGE price started a recovery wave from $0.1150 and climbed above $0.120.
• The price is trading below the $0.130 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $0.1240 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
• The price could continue to move up if it stays above $0.120.

Dogecoin Price Faces Resistance

Dogecoin price started a recovery wave from the $0.1150 zone, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE climbed above the $0.1180 and $0.120 resistance levels.

There was a decent upward move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.1512 swing high to the $0.1154 low. Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $0.1240 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair.

Dogecoin price is now trading below the $0.130 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. If there is a recovery wave, immediate resistance on the upside is near the $0.1260 level. The first major resistance for the bulls could be near the $0.1285 level.

The next major resistance is near the $0.1330 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.1512 swing high to the $0.1154 low. A close above the $0.1330 resistance might send the price toward the $0.1420 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $0.150 level. The next major stop for the bulls might be $0.1550.

Another Decline In DOGE?

If DOGE’s price fails to climb above the $0.1280 level, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.1230 level. The next major support is near the $0.120 level.

The main support sits at $0.1150. If there is a downside break below the $0.1150 support, the price could decline further. In the stated case, the price might slide toward the $0.1080 level or even $0.1050 in the near term.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for DOGE/USD is now losing momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for DOGE/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $0.1200 and $0.1150.

Major Resistance Levels – $0.1280 and $0.1330.