Many in the crypto space have echoed a familiar sentiment over recent months: “The four-year crypto market cycle is dead.” Experts from the Bull Theory assert that while the four-year cycle may have come to an end, the Bitcoin bull run itself is merely delayed and could stretch until 2027.

Why The Four-Year Cycle May Be Ending

In a recent post on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, the Bull Theory analysts noted that the concept of Bitcoin adhering to a neat four-year cycle is weakening. 

They highlighted that significant price movements over the last decade weren’t solely driven by Halving events; rather, they were influenced by shifts in global liquidity. 

The analysts pointed to the current landscape of stablecoin liquidity, which remains high despite recent downturns, indicating that larger investors are still engaged in the market, poised to invest when appropriate macroeconomic conditions arise.

In the US, Treasury policies are emerging as pivotal catalysts. The recent buybacks are notable, but the analysts emphasize that the larger narrative lies in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which is currently around $940 billion—almost $90 billion above its normal range. 

This surplus cash is likely to flow back into the financial system, enhancing financing conditions and adding liquidity that typically gravitates toward risk assets.

Globally, the trends appear even more promising. China has been injecting liquidity for several months, while Japan recently announced a stimulus package worth approximately $135 billion, alongside efforts to simplify cryptocurrency regulations. 

Canada is also moving toward easing its monetary policy, and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has officially halted its quantitative tightening (QT) measures—a historical precursor to some form of liquidity expansion.

Political And Monetary Factors Align To Create Bullish Condition

The analysts explained that when major economies adopt expansive monetary policies simultaneously, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to respond more rapidly than traditional stocks or broader markets. 

Additionally, potential policy tools, such as the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption—implemented in 2020 to allow banks more flexibility in expanding their balance sheets—could return, resulting in increased credit creation and overall market liquidity.

There is also a political dimension to consider. President Trump has discussed potential tax reforms, including abolishing income tax and distributing $2,000 tariff dividends. 

Furthermore, the likelihood of a new Federal Reserve chair who supports liquidity assistance and is constructive toward cryptocurrency could bolster conditions for economic growth.

Extended Bitcoin Uptrend

Historically, whenever the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (ISM PMI) surpasses 55, it has been followed by periods of altcoin season. The probability of this occurring in 2026 appears high, according to the Bull Theory.

The convergence of rising stablecoin liquidity, the Treasury’s injection of cash back into markets, global quantitative easing, the cessation of QT in the US, potential bank-lending relief, pro-market policy shifts in 2026, and major players entering the crypto sector suggests a very different scenario than the old four-year halving model. 

The analysts concluded that if liquidity expands concurrently across the US, Japan, China, Canada, and other significant economies, Bitcoin is unlikely to move counter to that trend.

Therefore, rather than experiencing a sharp rally followed by a prolonged bear market, the current environment indicates a more extended and broader uptrend that could span through 2026 and into 2027.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Price Slump Could Spark Next Bull Run

Recent bitcoin price action has left many investors frustrated. Despite setting new all-time highs above $120,000 earlier this year, the bitcoin price has struggled to keep pace with equities and Gold in recent months. The S&P 500 and precious metals have surged to new records, while Bitcoin has remained range-bound, giving the impression that it’s lagging behind. But when analyzing the market through a lens of capital rotation, this period of underperformance may not last much longer.

Relative Gains in the Bitcoin Price

While Bitcoin has appeared weak in dollar terms, it remains one of the strongest performers over the past year. BTC has still outperformed both Gold’s 46% and the S&P 500, yet even with that outperformance, the structure of the market makes it feel as though Bitcoin is still under-delivering. Measuring Bitcoin against other assets like equities and Gold rather than the dollar, which is itself depreciating, gives a more accurate view of its purchasing power and real market standing.

When charted against the S&P 500, Bitcoin’s performance shows an interesting divergence. The BTC to S&P ratio reveals that while Bitcoin set new USD highs in 2024, its relative value against equities is only just above the previous cycle’s peak. In other words, Bitcoin’s additional purchasing power has barely expanded. If Bitcoin were to reclaim the previous S&P 500 ratio high of ~19.6, it would equate to a bitcoin price of roughly $135,000, given current equity levels.

Bitcoin Price vs Gold

The Bitcoin to Gold ratio tells a similar story. Despite reaching new highs in dollar terms, BTC actually remains well below its previous cycle’s all-time high when priced in Gold. A full recovery to that ratio would place the bitcoin price near $150,000, and reclaiming the brief 2024 high would push it closer to $160,000. These comparisons help explain why sentiment feels more muted despite record prices. Measured against real-world stores of value, Bitcoin’s performance still trails prior peaks.

However, an interesting dynamic has repeated across multiple cycles. Each time Gold has experienced a sharp rally, Bitcoin has followed with a major bull phase shortly after. The pattern appeared in 2012, 2016, and again in 2020 — Gold rallied first, then Bitcoin followed with exponential gains. These Gold spikes seem to mark the early stages of capital rotation, as liquidity moves from defensive safe havens into more speculative, higher-beta assets like BTC.

Capital Rotation and the Bitcoin Price

That rotation may already be underway again. Gold recently set new highs before losing momentum, while equities have begun to strengthen. Historically, when Gold begins to underperform the S&P 500 after a major rally, it has signaled the start of risk-on conditions in broader markets — the kind that favor Bitcoin.

The same capital rotation that occurs within crypto markets, from stablecoins into Bitcoin, then into large-cap and smaller speculative altcoins, may also occur in traditional markets. Liquidity often flows from fiat and bonds into Gold and then equities, before eventually into risk assets like Bitcoin as investor confidence rises.

Conclusion: The Bitcoin Price May Soon Lead Again

Bitcoin remains tightly correlated with the S&P 500, meaning sustained equity strength is one of the most reliable precursors to bitcoin price outperformance. With Gold potentially topping and equities gaining traction, the next few months could mark the beginning of a new phase of risk appetite.

While Bitcoin has felt stagnant and underwhelming in recent weeks, the broader context suggests otherwise. Capital is in motion. The same rotation that has defined every past cycle appears to be setting up once again — and the bitcoin price may soon move from laggard to leader.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Bitcoin Is Underperforming – But Maybe Not For Much Longer

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Bitcoin Price Slump Could Spark Next Bull Run first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin Magazine

This Bitcoin Price Cycle Data Reveals Next Major Bull Run

The bitcoin price is at a very interesting point in its current market cycle. With lots of different opinions and not much movement in price, it’s hard to know what’s coming next. But when we look at the important data, things get a lot clearer. These signals don’t just tell us what might happen in the immediate future, but can clarify what the coming weeks and months could bring.

The Short-Term Holder Realized Price and Bitcoin Price Support

We begin with the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, effectively the average cost basis for new market participants. This level has historically acted as a dynamic zone of support and resistance throughout each cycle. At present, the STH realized price sits around $113,000, close to where Bitcoin is currently trading. Despite the sharp liquidation event earlier this month, the market has rebounded and stabilized around this level.

When Bitcoin holds above the short-term holder realized price, it signals that the average recent buyer is either at breakeven or in slight profit. This often increases investor confidence and encourages additional capital rotation into the market. In past cycles, such as in 2017, every retest of this line provided an ideal accumulation opportunity before the next leg higher. Maintaining support above this could once again mark the foundation for the next phase of the bull cycle.

Understanding The MVRV Ratio and Bitcoin Price Valuation

Beyond the realized price itself, we turn to the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, which measures the relationship between Bitcoin’s current market price and its aggregate realized price. This ratio helps identify over- or undervalued conditions.

Across prior cycles, clear patterns emerge, with Bitcoin consistently finding support around the 0.66 level during large down moves, prime zones for accumulation. On the upside, notable resistance has historically appeared around 1.33, 1.43, and 1.64, corresponding to profit-taking points where new participants reach 33%, 43%, or 64% unrealized gains, respectively.

Using these multiples, we can estimate future targets. By multiplying the current STH Realized Price at ~$113,000 by these MVRV thresholds, we can project potential resistance zones for this cycle. The 1.33 zone generates a projected price of approximately $160,000 for the end of the year. The midway 1.43 zone equates to a projection of ~$170,000, and the upper zone of 1.64 extrapolates to around $200,00. These levels align remarkably well with historical resistance zones, suggesting the $160k–$200k range could act as a major price ceiling if Bitcoin continues to hold above its realized base.

Long-Term Holder MVRV and Bitcoin Price Peaks

Next, we turn to the Long-Term Holder MVRV Ratio, which measures unrealized profit and loss among the market’s most experienced investors. This cohort’s behavior provides key insights into macrocycle dynamics. In the 2017 bull run, LTH MVRV peaked at 36.2. In the 2021 cycle, it peaked at 12.58, roughly a 2.9x reduction, demonstrating the diminishing return structure that has defined Bitcoin’s maturation.

Applying that same diminishing factor (÷2.88) suggests a potential peak around 4.37 for this current cycle. Given that the Long-Term Holder Realized Price sits near $37,400, a 4.37x multiple implies a potential target of roughly $163,000–$165,000, overlapping with the upper targets derived from short-term holder data and levels we’ve already reached this cycle in LTH MVRV terms.

The Rolling MVRV Framework and Bitcoin Price Dynamics

As the Bitcoin market evolves, traditional MVRV metrics must also adapt. One of the most effective approaches is to view these ratios on a rolling basis, which accounts for dynamic changes in market conditions.

When modeled on a 2-Year Rolling basis, the MVRV Z-Score eliminates some of the “diminishing peaks” seen in static models. Peaks around 3.0 and troughs near –1.0 have consistently aligned with market tops and bottoms. Intriguingly, current readings are closer to the buy zone than the sell zone, implying that Bitcoin is still in an accumulation-friendly range.

To gain more granularity, we can also assess the MVRV ratio on a 100-day rolling basis, which captures intra-cycle fluctuations. In this model, spikes above +2 correlate with local tops, while dips below –2 align with local bottoms and optimal DCA zones. Across Bitcoin’s entire history, this rolling 100-day MVRV framework has identified some of the most accurate short-term accumulation and distribution points, even within broader cycle trends.

Conclusion

Even as Bitcoin’s market matures and institutional involvement deepens, these core on-chain valuation frameworks remain among the most powerful tools for cycle analysis. The realized price models, particularly those tied to specific cohorts, provide insight into market conviction, showing when participants are in profit and when behavioral shifts are likely to trigger the next move. More importantly, adapting traditional metrics to rolling frameworks ensures our models evolve alongside Bitcoin itself, capturing new investor behavior, liquidity cycles, and the growing institutional influence that defines this market’s future.

If Bitcoin can continue holding above the STH realized price, the data suggests there is ample room to the upside, with plausible cycle targets in the $160,000–$200,000 region.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Bitcoin: This On-Chain Data Tells Us Where Price Goes Next

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

---

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post This Bitcoin Price Cycle Data Reveals Next Major Bull Run first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.