Bitcoin Magazine

Why Bitcoin Price Top Indicators Failed This Cycle

Bitcoin price’s most popular top-calling indicators failed to trigger during the latest bull market, leaving observers questioning whether the underlying data is now broken. This analysis examines several widely used tools, explores why they underperformed this cycle, and outlines how they can be adapted to Bitcoin’s evolving market structure.

Bitcoin Price Forecast Tools

On the Bitcoin Magazine Pro Price Forecast Tools indicator, the latest bull market never reached several historically reliable top models such as Delta Top, Terminal Price, and Top Cap, with the latter not even touched in the prior cycle. The Bitcoin Investor Tool, which uses a 2-year moving average multiplied by 5, also remained untested, and the Pi Cycle Top Indicator failed to provide precise timing or price signals despite being closely watched by many traders. This has led to understandable questions around whether these models have stopped working or whether Bitcoin’s behavior has outgrown them.

Bitcoin is an evolving asset with a changing market structure, liquidity, and participant mix. Rather than assuming the data is broken, it may be more appropriate to adapt the metrics to a different lens and time horizon. The goal is not to abandon these tools, but to make them more robust and responsive to a market that no longer delivers the same exponential upside and violent cycle tops as earlier years.

Bitcoin Price: From Fixed Thresholds to Dynamic Signals

The MVRV Z-Score 2-Year Rolling metric has been a core tool for identifying overheated conditions, but in this cycle, it did not call the bull market peak particularly well. It registered a major spike as Bitcoin first pushed through the $73,000–$74,000 zone, yet failed to give a clean exit signal for the later stages of the advance. Currently, the metric is printing the most oversold readings on record.

To address this shortcoming, the MVRV Z-Score can be recalibrated on a 6-month rolling basis rather than two years, making it more sensitive to recent conditions while still anchored in realized value dynamics. Alongside the shorter lookback, it is helpful to move away from fixed thresholds and instead use dynamic distribution-based bands. By mapping the percentage of days spent above or below different Z-Score levels, it becomes possible to mark zones such as the top 5%, as well as the bottom 5% on the downside. During this cycle, Bitcoin did register signals in the upper bands as it first broke above $100,000, and historically, moves into the top 5% region have coincided reasonably well with cycle peaks, even if they did not capture the exact tick high.

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Bitcoin Price: Faster-Reaction Metrics for Today’s Cycle

Beyond valuation tools, activity-based indicators like Coin Days Destroyed can be made more useful by shortening their lookback periods. A 90-day moving average of Coin Days Destroyed has historically tracked large waves of long-term holder distribution, but the more muted and choppy nature of the current cycle means that a 30-day moving average is often more informative. With Bitcoin no longer delivering the same parabolic moves, metrics need to react faster to reflect today’s shallower yet still important waves of profit-taking and investor rotation.

Excluding the latest readings and focusing on the advance up to the all-time high of this cycle, the 30-day Coin Days Destroyed metric flashed almost exactly at the cycle peak. It also triggered earlier as Bitcoin first crossed roughly $73,000–$74,000, and again when price moved through $100,000, effectively flagging all key distribution waves. While this is easy to observe in hindsight, it reinforces that on-chain supply and demand signals remain relevant; the task is to calibrate them to current volatility regimes and market depth.

Bitcoin Price Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) provides another lens on realised profit-taking, but the raw series can be noisy, with sharp spikes, frequent mean reversion, and large moves both during rallies and during intra-bull capitulations. To extract more actionable information, a 28-day (monthly) change in SOPR can be used instead. This smoothed alternative highlights when the pace of profit realisation is accelerating to extreme levels over a short window, cutting through the noise of intra-cycle volatility.

Applied to the latest cycle, the monthly SOPR change produced distinct peaks as Bitcoin first moved through the $73,000–$74,000 zone, again above $100,000, and once more around the $120,000 region. While none of these perfectly captured the final wick high, they each marked phases of intense profit-taking pressure consistent with cycle exhaustion. Using monthly changes rather than the raw metric makes the signal clearer, especially when combined with cross-asset views of Bitcoin’s purchasing power versus equities and Gold.

Bitcoin Price Cycle Conclusion: Adapt or Fall Behind

In hindsight, many popular top-calling indicators did work throughout this bull market when measured through the right lens and on appropriate timeframes. The key principle remains: react to the data, do not attempt to predict. Rather than waiting for any single metric to perfectly call the top, a basket of adapted indicators, interpreted through the lens of purchasing power and changing market dynamics, can increase the probability of identifying when Bitcoin is overheating and when it is transitioning into a more favorable accumulation phase. The coming months will focus on refining these models to ensure they remain viable not just historically, but robustly accurate going forward.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Why Didn’t The Bitcoin Top Calling Metrics Work?

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Why Bitcoin Price Top Indicators Failed This Cycle first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin Magazine

This Bitcoin Price Cycle Data Reveals Next Major Bull Run

The bitcoin price is at a very interesting point in its current market cycle. With lots of different opinions and not much movement in price, it’s hard to know what’s coming next. But when we look at the important data, things get a lot clearer. These signals don’t just tell us what might happen in the immediate future, but can clarify what the coming weeks and months could bring.

The Short-Term Holder Realized Price and Bitcoin Price Support

We begin with the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, effectively the average cost basis for new market participants. This level has historically acted as a dynamic zone of support and resistance throughout each cycle. At present, the STH realized price sits around $113,000, close to where Bitcoin is currently trading. Despite the sharp liquidation event earlier this month, the market has rebounded and stabilized around this level.

When Bitcoin holds above the short-term holder realized price, it signals that the average recent buyer is either at breakeven or in slight profit. This often increases investor confidence and encourages additional capital rotation into the market. In past cycles, such as in 2017, every retest of this line provided an ideal accumulation opportunity before the next leg higher. Maintaining support above this could once again mark the foundation for the next phase of the bull cycle.

Understanding The MVRV Ratio and Bitcoin Price Valuation

Beyond the realized price itself, we turn to the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, which measures the relationship between Bitcoin’s current market price and its aggregate realized price. This ratio helps identify over- or undervalued conditions.

Across prior cycles, clear patterns emerge, with Bitcoin consistently finding support around the 0.66 level during large down moves, prime zones for accumulation. On the upside, notable resistance has historically appeared around 1.33, 1.43, and 1.64, corresponding to profit-taking points where new participants reach 33%, 43%, or 64% unrealized gains, respectively.

Using these multiples, we can estimate future targets. By multiplying the current STH Realized Price at ~$113,000 by these MVRV thresholds, we can project potential resistance zones for this cycle. The 1.33 zone generates a projected price of approximately $160,000 for the end of the year. The midway 1.43 zone equates to a projection of ~$170,000, and the upper zone of 1.64 extrapolates to around $200,00. These levels align remarkably well with historical resistance zones, suggesting the $160k–$200k range could act as a major price ceiling if Bitcoin continues to hold above its realized base.

Long-Term Holder MVRV and Bitcoin Price Peaks

Next, we turn to the Long-Term Holder MVRV Ratio, which measures unrealized profit and loss among the market’s most experienced investors. This cohort’s behavior provides key insights into macrocycle dynamics. In the 2017 bull run, LTH MVRV peaked at 36.2. In the 2021 cycle, it peaked at 12.58, roughly a 2.9x reduction, demonstrating the diminishing return structure that has defined Bitcoin’s maturation.

Applying that same diminishing factor (÷2.88) suggests a potential peak around 4.37 for this current cycle. Given that the Long-Term Holder Realized Price sits near $37,400, a 4.37x multiple implies a potential target of roughly $163,000–$165,000, overlapping with the upper targets derived from short-term holder data and levels we’ve already reached this cycle in LTH MVRV terms.

The Rolling MVRV Framework and Bitcoin Price Dynamics

As the Bitcoin market evolves, traditional MVRV metrics must also adapt. One of the most effective approaches is to view these ratios on a rolling basis, which accounts for dynamic changes in market conditions.

When modeled on a 2-Year Rolling basis, the MVRV Z-Score eliminates some of the “diminishing peaks” seen in static models. Peaks around 3.0 and troughs near –1.0 have consistently aligned with market tops and bottoms. Intriguingly, current readings are closer to the buy zone than the sell zone, implying that Bitcoin is still in an accumulation-friendly range.

To gain more granularity, we can also assess the MVRV ratio on a 100-day rolling basis, which captures intra-cycle fluctuations. In this model, spikes above +2 correlate with local tops, while dips below –2 align with local bottoms and optimal DCA zones. Across Bitcoin’s entire history, this rolling 100-day MVRV framework has identified some of the most accurate short-term accumulation and distribution points, even within broader cycle trends.

Conclusion

Even as Bitcoin’s market matures and institutional involvement deepens, these core on-chain valuation frameworks remain among the most powerful tools for cycle analysis. The realized price models, particularly those tied to specific cohorts, provide insight into market conviction, showing when participants are in profit and when behavioral shifts are likely to trigger the next move. More importantly, adapting traditional metrics to rolling frameworks ensures our models evolve alongside Bitcoin itself, capturing new investor behavior, liquidity cycles, and the growing institutional influence that defines this market’s future.

If Bitcoin can continue holding above the STH realized price, the data suggests there is ample room to the upside, with plausible cycle targets in the $160,000–$200,000 region.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Bitcoin: This On-Chain Data Tells Us Where Price Goes Next

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post This Bitcoin Price Cycle Data Reveals Next Major Bull Run first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.