Many in the crypto space have echoed a familiar sentiment over recent months: “The four-year crypto market cycle is dead.” Experts from the Bull Theory assert that while the four-year cycle may have come to an end, the Bitcoin bull run itself is merely delayed and could stretch until 2027.

Why The Four-Year Cycle May Be Ending

In a recent post on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, the Bull Theory analysts noted that the concept of Bitcoin adhering to a neat four-year cycle is weakening. 

They highlighted that significant price movements over the last decade weren’t solely driven by Halving events; rather, they were influenced by shifts in global liquidity. 

The analysts pointed to the current landscape of stablecoin liquidity, which remains high despite recent downturns, indicating that larger investors are still engaged in the market, poised to invest when appropriate macroeconomic conditions arise.

In the US, Treasury policies are emerging as pivotal catalysts. The recent buybacks are notable, but the analysts emphasize that the larger narrative lies in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which is currently around $940 billion—almost $90 billion above its normal range. 

This surplus cash is likely to flow back into the financial system, enhancing financing conditions and adding liquidity that typically gravitates toward risk assets.

Globally, the trends appear even more promising. China has been injecting liquidity for several months, while Japan recently announced a stimulus package worth approximately $135 billion, alongside efforts to simplify cryptocurrency regulations. 

Canada is also moving toward easing its monetary policy, and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has officially halted its quantitative tightening (QT) measures—a historical precursor to some form of liquidity expansion.

Political And Monetary Factors Align To Create Bullish Condition

The analysts explained that when major economies adopt expansive monetary policies simultaneously, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to respond more rapidly than traditional stocks or broader markets. 

Additionally, potential policy tools, such as the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption—implemented in 2020 to allow banks more flexibility in expanding their balance sheets—could return, resulting in increased credit creation and overall market liquidity.

There is also a political dimension to consider. President Trump has discussed potential tax reforms, including abolishing income tax and distributing $2,000 tariff dividends. 

Furthermore, the likelihood of a new Federal Reserve chair who supports liquidity assistance and is constructive toward cryptocurrency could bolster conditions for economic growth.

Extended Bitcoin Uptrend

Historically, whenever the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (ISM PMI) surpasses 55, it has been followed by periods of altcoin season. The probability of this occurring in 2026 appears high, according to the Bull Theory.

The convergence of rising stablecoin liquidity, the Treasury’s injection of cash back into markets, global quantitative easing, the cessation of QT in the US, potential bank-lending relief, pro-market policy shifts in 2026, and major players entering the crypto sector suggests a very different scenario than the old four-year halving model. 

The analysts concluded that if liquidity expands concurrently across the US, Japan, China, Canada, and other significant economies, Bitcoin is unlikely to move counter to that trend.

Therefore, rather than experiencing a sharp rally followed by a prolonged bear market, the current environment indicates a more extended and broader uptrend that could span through 2026 and into 2027.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is retesting a crucial support area after its price slid 5% from the recent highs and fell below the $90,000 barrier. Some analysts have suggested that the cryptocurrency’s structure remains intact, but warned that it must bounce quickly or risk retesting the November lows.

Bitcoin Retests $88,000 After Rejection

On Friday, Bitcoin lost the recently reclaimed $90,000 level, falling to a key support area before stabilizing. The flagship crypto has been attempting to recover from the November market correction, which sent its price to a seven-month low of $80,600.

Since reaching its local lows two weeks ago, the cryptocurrency has traded within a macro re-accumulation range, between $82,000 and $93,500, attempting to break out of this zone on Wednesday, when it reached a multi-week high of $94,150.

However, as the first week of December approaches its end, BTC has lost the upper area of its local range again, falling below its monthly open and tapping the $88,000 support.

Amid the drop, Analyst Ted Pillows noted that BTC has been struggling to reclaim the $94,000 resistance, adding that price “wants to go lower here before another breakout attempt.”  Therefore, he suggested that a bounce back from the $88,000-$89,000 support zone is likely.

Altcoin Sherpa affirmed that the ongoing retest would confirm whether the recent bounce was “just lower highs and price is going lower or if we actually have any juice to bounce to like 100k or something.”

The analyst outlined two potential outcomes. In the first scenario, the flagship crypto would retrace to the $87,000-$89,000 area and bounce above the $93,000-$94,000 resistance levels.

In the second scenario, Bitcoin would continue to move sideways below the local resistance before eventually sliding to the November lows and potentially lower levels. Per the analysis, the leading cryptocurrency must bottom quickly, or it will risk the second outcome.

BTC Shows Shallowing Pullback Tendency

Analyst Rekt Capital also pointed out that Bitcoin continues to face rejection from the range high resistance. However, he considers that investors should not worry as long as the pullback isn’t as big as the previous ones.

If “the rejection is shallower than the previous two, then this resistance will continue to weaken until eventually breached,” he explained, adding that “as long as this weakening continues, BTC should be able to finally breach this resistance over time & try to challenge the multi-week Downtrend above.”

Earlier this week, the analyst affirmed that BTC’s consolidation structure will remain intact as long as Bitcoin closes the week above the range lows. He also noted that its Macro Downtrend, which “has been dictating resistance throughout this phase of the cycle,” remains the dominant structural barrier and the level to break.

As the price stabilized between the $88,500-$89,350 area, the analyst added that today’s retracement “continues to be a shallower pullback than the previous two,” which keeps the range “‘retrace shallowing’ tendency” intact.

He noted that Bitcoin could technically drop into the ascending two-week support trendline, or tap the $86,000 level and still perform a shallower correction than the recent 10% drop.

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $89,400, a 2.9% decline in the daily timeframe.

Despite the Bitcoin price recovery above the crucial $90,000 threshold—a level that has historically served as a supportive floor for the cryptocurrency—the market is exhibiting signs that a further correction may be imminent. 

Bitcoin Price Recovery At Risk?

Market expert Rekt Fencer recently shared insights on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, suggesting that the Bitcoin price might be forming what he calls a “massive bull trap.” 

This term refers to a deceptive bullish signal in which the price briefly surpasses a resistance level, in this case, the $90,000 mark, only to reverse into a decline. Such movements can entrap investors who bought in during the peak, leading to significant losses.

Fencer pointed out a troubling pattern reminiscent of early 2022 when Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average (MA)—currently positioned above $102,300—before experiencing a severe decline of roughly 60%, plummeting below $20,000 by June of that year. 

He indicated that the recent price recovery following major drops to $84,000 should not be interpreted as a signal of near-term success, especially since the Bitcoin price is currently trading under the 50-week MA.

If historical trends repeat, this could mean that Bitcoin might see a significant drop, potentially reaching around $36,200, which could potentially represent the low point of the bearish cycle for the cryptocurrency. On the other hand, there are analysts who retain a bullish outlook. 

BTC Bottom In Sight? 

Market researcher and analyst Miles Deutscher expressed a confident sentiment, stating he believes there is a 91.5% likelihood that the Bitcoin price has hit its bottom, based on his analysis of key developments. 

He noted that recent weeks have been dominated by negative news stories, including concerns surrounding Tether (USDT) and the implications of China’s actions on crypto, which he asserts often mark local price bottoms.

Moreover, Deutscher pointed out a shift in market flows from predominantly bearish to bullish. He explained that the trading environment has recently seen a resurgence in buying momentum, with large investors, or “OG whales,” ceasing their selling. This change has been reflected in the order books, indicating a possible stabilization in market sentiment.

Additionally, the liquidity landscape appears to be shifting, with market conditions tightening in recent months. The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair known for dovish policies, coupled with the official end of quantitative tightening (QT), could further influence market dynamics in favor of buyers.

Deutscher concluded by emphasizing that given the extreme levels of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) in the market, combined with improvements in trading flows, he believes that the odds favor the notion that the Bitcoin price has indeed reached its bottom.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee told attendees at Binance Blockchain Week that he believes the worst leg of the recent crypto slump is likely over and that markets may be ready for a gradual recovery. He pointed to weakening selling pressure and growing underlying activity as reasons for cautious optimism.

Market Sentiment May Be Near A Turning Point

According to Lee, mood on the street turned darker after October, with many investors showing fatigue after steady losses. He said the current selling looks closer to exhaustion than to the start of another major decline. Trading desks have cut back. Volume has thinned. Sentiment is low. Lee argued that often, when pessimism peaks, conditions for a reversal begin to form.

Bitcoin Drawdowns Are Not Uncommon

Based on reports, Bitcoin has fallen about 36% from its all-time high in the recent retreat. That size of drop has happened in prior cycles, including 2017 and 2021, and has been followed by rallies that reached new records.

“Crypto prices likely bottomed. The best years of growth are still ahead: there is 200x adoption to come.” – Tom Lee, Chairman of Bitmine pic.twitter.com/fPWbWdaosO

— Binance (@binance) December 4, 2025

Lee pointed to long-term returns for bitcoin and ether compared with some traditional assets over the last decade, saying crypto’s gains were larger. He used that history to support the idea that patient holders have been rewarded after past stress.

Tokenization Could Be A Major Story In 2026

Lee also presented tokenization as a key theme for the future. He said large institutions are preparing to move more financial products on-chain and that, if real estate joins the shift, close to a quadrillion dollars in assets could eventually be tokenized.

Stablecoins were cited as an early example of why tokenized instruments can attract demand. He suggested that a broader institutional push could add steady interest to the market over time.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Was Highlighted As A Signal

Reports have disclosed that BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF has become one of the firm’s top fee-earning products, a fact Lee used to show growing involvement from legacy finance. That kind of institutional participation, he argued, points to deeper engagement from big players who were previously on the sidelines.

Adoption Gap Suggests Large Upside

According to Lee, only 4.4 million bitcoin wallets hold more than $10,000 in BTC, while nearly 900 million people globally have more than $10,000 in retirement savings.

He said that gap shows how early the market still is and argued that if just a fraction of those savers put money into bitcoin, adoption could expand by as much as 200 times. The figure is speculative, he acknowledged, but he used it to show the potential scale for future demand.

What This Means For Investors Now

Lee questioned whether the old four-year cycle should be used as a strict guide. He suggested recent moves were driven more by de-leveraging and structural shifts than by the halving rhythm that shaped earlier cycles.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

On 3rd December, official filings and press releases announced Twenty One Capital’s upcoming debut on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), positioning the company as one of the largest Bitcoin treasury firms ever to enter public markets. The listing brings a dedicated Bitcoin balance sheet into Wall Street’s core ecosystem, signaling a structural shift in how institutional investors can gain long-term BTC exposure.

A Bitcoin Treasury Giant Steps Onto The NYSE Stage

Twenty One Capital’s NYSE entry is anchored by its business combination with Cantor Equity Partners (CEP), the SPAC serving as the public-market vehicle for the transaction. CEP shareholders have already approved the merger, and the deal is expected to close around December 8. Once completed, the combined entity will operate as Twenty One Capital, Inc. and begin trading on December 9 under the ticker XXI. 

The original announcement, released through official press channels and SEC-related filings, emphasized CEP’s central role in enabling the listing and establishing the company’s public-market structure. CEO Jack Mallers also highlighted the milestone on X, noting the company’s readiness for its debut.

According to this press announcement, Twenty One Capital will debut with an estimated 43,500 BTC, a reserve valued near $4 billion at recent market levels. This immediately places it among the top corporate Bitcoin treasuries globally. Unlike companies that hold Bitcoin as a secondary reserve, Twenty One is specifically engineered around a Bitcoin-native model. The firm intends to report “Bitcoin-per-share,” providing investors a transparent look at how much BTC each equity unit represents. It also pledges full, on-chain proof-of-reserves, positioning itself as a high-transparency asset custodian at launch.

This model effectively transforms Twenty One into a regulated balance-sheet wrapper for Bitcoin. It lowers operational friction for institutional allocators who want direct BTC exposure without the complexities of crypto custody, self-storage, or exchange-based acquisition. By listing on the NYSE rather than relying on ETFs or derivatives, Twenty One creates a regulated public equity vehicle that holds, safeguards, and transparently tracks Bitcoin for institutional and retail investors alike.

Wall Street’s New On-Ramp To Institutional BTC Exposure

The market impact of Twenty One’s listing reflects the accelerating integration of Bitcoin into mainstream financial architecture. The company’s backers—including Tether-linked entities, Bitfinex-aligned interests, SoftBank-connected capital, and Cantor’s public-markets network—provide a cross-sector foundation aimed at bridging crypto-native philosophies with institutional liquidity channels. 

Under this structure, Twenty One aims to become a long-term institutional treasury vessel—a regulated balance sheet that accumulates BTC and gives investors an equity-linked way to participate in Bitcoin’s upside without engaging directly with crypto custody or trading infrastructure.

As the NYSE debut approaches, Twenty One Capital embodies a pivot point where BTC’s role in capital markets shifts from speculative asset to institutional treasury instrument. If XXI attracts sustained flow, it could set a new blueprint for how corporate entities engage with Bitcoin—anchoring Wall Street’s next phase of digital-asset adoption.

The Binance Blockchain Week event in Dubai became the center of a high-stakes showdown between traditional and digital innovation, with Bitcoin and gold going head-to-head. Investors, tech enthusiasts, and financial experts watched closely as Binance founder Changpeng Zhao expertly debated renowned Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff, making a compelling argument for why Bitcoin is better than gold. 

Binance Founder Dominates Bitcoin And Gold Debate

During the Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai, Schiff and CZ faced off in a high-profile debate over the value of Bitcoin versus Gold. Schiff defended gold as a safe, stable, and tangible asset while the Binance founder made a compelling case for Bitcoin’s adoption, utility, value, and global reach. 

Throughout the debate, which lasted over an hour, CZ consistently demonstrated the practical advantages of Bitcoin, leaving Schiff’s gold argument largely on the defensive. The Binance founder emphasized Bitcoin’s transparent and predictable supply and its role in the modern financial systems. He pointed to hundreds of millions of users who rely on Bitcoin for payments, savings, and transfers. 

Schiff argued that Bitcoin lacks inherent value and is mainly driven by hype and faith that its price will rise. He stated that gold remains tangible, centuries old, scarce, and valuable in industry, making it superior to BTC. He further asserted that “nobody needs” Bitcoin and that the cryptocurrency is “backed by nothing.”

Practical demonstrations played a key role in the debate between Schiff and CZ. The Binance founder explained how Bitcoin and crypto payments already improve financial efficiency, especially in emerging markets. Schiff questioned whether these transactions truly count as money, since merchants ultimately receive traditional currency. CZ’s response highlighted the importance of adoption and network effects, noting that people who use BTC directly for payments give it real-world significance.

The debate also considered the preferences of younger generations. CZ asked Schiff whether millennials and Gen Z favoured Bitcoin or gold. The Bitcoin critic responded sharply, suggesting that they would choose gold. He pointed out that, with many young investors losing money on BTC, gold offers a safer, more appealing alternative. The Binance founder countered that younger people understand digital value more intuitively and prefer mobile, borderless, and censorship-resistant assets. 

Digital Value And The Future Of Money

The debate between CZ and Schiff also highlighted the changing definition of money. Bitcoin functions as a decentralized network that enables instant settlement and transparent verification. Its adoption has also helped evolve the financial economy, facilitating faster and more seamless cross-border payments. Schiff argued that gold’s scarcity and industrial demand preserve its value and make it a reliable hedge against economic uncertainty. 

Tokenization also became a point of agreement during the discussion, with Schiff emphasizing that gold can be digitized and tokenized for easier ownership and distribution without moving the physical metal. CZ contended that Bitcoin offers similar advantages while also enabling global financial inclusion. They also discussed the supply of both assets, with the Binance founder noting that Bitcoin has a visible supply, while gold doesn’t. 

They also talked about the performance of both assets over the years. Schiff argued that gold had outperformed BTC over the past four years. CZ contended that Bitcoin has far outpaced gold over the last 8 years, and since its launch in 2009, it has skyrocketed from a few cents to an ATH above $126,000. He concluded his debate, predicting that Bitcoin’s growth will outpace gold over time.

The crypto market is bleeding as leveraged liquidations intensify, sending Bitcoin back below $90,000.

Analysts are warning that if bulls fail to defend the critical $84,000 support level, Bitcoin’s price prediction could tilt into a full-blown bear market.

$200M Wiped Out As Crypto Liquidations Trigger Market-Wide Selloff

Over the last four hours, more than $200 million in leveraged positions have been liquidated across the crypto market.

Bitcoin is down over 3%, while Ethereum has plunged over 4%. The bloodbath has wiped out over $100 billion in total market capitalization today.

BREAKING:

Crypto liquidations have resumed, sending Bitcoin back below $90,000.

Over the last 4 hours, more than $200 million in leveraged positions have been wiped out.

Volatility is back. pic.twitter.com/YCmzcQdkab

— The market periodical (@tmp_periodical) December 5, 2025

The carnage follows today’s massive options expiry event, which traders had been monitoring closely.

A staggering $3.357 billion worth of BTC options with a max pain point at $91,000 expired today, alongside $668 million worth of ETH options with a max pain at $3,050.

Prominent trader TraderThanos is leaning heavily bearish as the 5-day candle closes below $93,000.

“Maybe we get another retest of 93k-93.2k. That would align more perfectly with my current bias. The next leg down takes us to 76k,” he warned.

Thanos highlighted a critical technical breakdown: “This is the first time price is trading under those Moving Averages since June/July of 2023,” referring to the 100 EMA and 100 MA on the 5-day timeframe.

If price stays beneath these moving averages, he expects a drop to the $72,000-$76,000 range.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, the odds of Bitcoin hitting $80,000 by year-end have now surpassed 40% on Polymarket.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Bulls Must Hold $84K or Face $76K

Bitcoin is trading below all major moving averages on the 4-hour chart, keeping the broader structure tilted bearish.

The 200-MA near $95,000 remains the key resistance that must be reclaimed to restore bullish momentum, but repeated rejections show sellers aggressively defending that zone.

Immediate support sits around $84,000, which stabilized the price during the last flush.

However, if Bitcoin fails to bounce strongly from this level, the broader corrective structure could extend toward deeper support near $76,000, where a more meaningful reversal becomes likely.

Bitcoin’s direction remains biased lower as long as it stays capped under $95,000.

A reclaim of that level would signal trend restoration, but until then, indicators point toward continued weakness.

Bitcoin Hyper Presale Surges Past $29M Amid BTC Weakness

As Bitcoin struggles, investors are turning to Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER), a project working on bringing speed and affordability to Bitcoin’s blockchain for decentralized applications.

Built on Solana-based architecture, Bitcoin Hyper accelerates transaction speeds while slashing network fees.

This enables developers to deploy DeFi platforms, meme coins, and payment solutions that Bitcoin holders can access without abandoning the original blockchain.

The presale has raised over $29 million, with tokens priced at $0.013375 and strong institutional interest driving momentum.

Early investors can benefit from presale pricing at the current $0.013385 price, with some analyses suggesting potential 10-15X ROI by 2026.

To buy $HYPER at its discounted presale price, head to the official Bitcoin Hyper website and link your wallet, such as Best Wallet.

Then connect a wallet (Best Wallet, MetaMask, or Coinbase Wallet) and select payment (ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, or USDC).You can also use a bank card for instant access.

Visit the Official Bitcoin Hyper Website Here

The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: $200M in Leveraged Liquidations Pushes BTC Under $90K — Can Bitcoin Avoid a Breakdown Below $84K? appeared first on Cryptonews.

Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher has issued one of the most forceful bottom calls of this cycle, assigning a 91.5% probability that Bitcoin’s low is already in. In a X thread on December 4, he wrote: “F*ck it. I’m putting my neck on the line here. I’m 91.5% certain that the BTC bottom is in. And if it is, A LOT of people are about to be caught offside.”

Is The Bitcoin Bottom In?

Deutscher bases his conviction on four “pillars”: market reaction to news, the historical behaviour of FUD events, a shift in flows, and an improving global liquidity backdrop. Each pillar is scored in an internal model that culminates in a 91.5/100 bullish reading.

He starts with price behaviour versus headlines. Over recent days, he notes, the market has digested an “influx of bad news” – including renewed Tether FUD, another round of “China banning crypto,” MicroStrategy scrutiny and concerns around a Bank of Japan–driven yen carry trade unwind.

“Despite all this bad news, price rallied,” he writes, calling this “the first time since the major selloff began” that Bitcoin has responded positively to a destructive news cycle. He underscores an old trading adage: “The reaction to news is more important than the news itself. This tells you everything you need to know.”

The second pillar is a systematic look at whether such FUD clusters tend to coincide with local lows. Deutscher says he backtested “every single time Tether, China, BOJ, and Microstrategy FUD entered the market” in a similar way. His conclusion is stark: “Every single time, these FUD events marked a local bottom. Tether FUD = bottom.

China ‘banning’ crypto = bottom. Bank of Japan/carry trade concerns = bottom. Microstrategy FUD = bottom.” On this basis, his AI model assigns the maximum score of 28/28 to this pillar. He cautions that “in isolation, this factor doesn’t matter much,” but argues that, combined with the first pillar, it “starts to paint a convincing bull case.”

The third pillar is flows, which he calls “the most critical factor (net buy/sell pressure).” For the past weeks, flows were “aggressively negative” with OG whales selling and ETFs dumping. Recently, he argues, this picture has changed. ETF inflows are “starting to stabilise & uptick,” treasury-company holdings remain stable, and “OG whales have stopped relentlessly dumping (this is clear on the orderbooks).” This earns a 22.5/25 score in his model. He adds one key caveat: as long as DATs exist, “there are material risks.”

The fourth pillar is the liquidity and macro environment. Deutscher notes that market liquidity had been tightening for months, but now “things are shifting back toward increased market liquidity,” with global financial conditions “reloosened to near highs.” He highlights “macro tailwinds” and adds that a new, potentially more dovish Fed chair is coming and “QT has now officially ended.” This set of factors receives a 9/10 score in his framework.

Aggregating all four pillars leads to the headline figure: “With all four market pillars taken into account, we arrive at a final score of 91.5/100.”

Deutscher, however, explicitly lists caveats. He points out that US markets “have been on a massive run” and may need to cool off, that DATs “are still seeing some short-term pressure,” and that ETF flows “can flip negative at any time.” His conclusion is probabilistic rather than absolute: “Markets are a game of probabilities, and I think the odds are in favour of the bottom being in – given the extreme FUD we’ve had and the market’s reaction to it.”

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $91,035.

The Bitcoin price volatility is once again drawing attention to MicroStrategy, the company whose strategy has become a major market reference point, with billions in accumulated BTC and a track record of aggressive buying during downturns. As traders search for stability in a shaky market, Strategy’s stance is being watched closely for what it might signal about the next phase of BTC’s trend.

Why MicroStrategy’s Next Move Could Redirect Market Momentum

Bitcoin’s recent volatility has put MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of BTC, in the limelight. Walter Bloomberg has revealed on X that analysts are watching closely to see if the company could influence the cryptocurrency’s price if it sells some of its holdings.

According to JPMorgan, Strategy can avoid forced sales as long as its enterprise value-to-BTC holdings ratio stays above 1.0, which currently stands at 1.13 BTC. However, analysts continue to debunk these claims, accusing JPMorgan of spreading misinformation about market manipulation and the company.

Walter stated that if the ratio remains above this level, BTC markets may stabilize and ease recent market pressure. Due to the market pressure, the firm has slowed its BTC purchases, adding 9,062 BTC last month compared to 134,480 BTC a year ago, reflecting a more cautious accumulation approach amid a broader crypto downturn. Its stock has dropped roughly 42% over the past three months.

Additionally, challenges include the potential exclusion from MSCI indices, which could trigger $8.8 billion in passive fund outflows if index funds are forced to divest. However, MicroStrategy holds a $1.4 billion reserve for dividends and interest, helping it avoid selling its BTC even if the price falls further. In the meantime, there is no proof that MicroStrategy is in danger of liquidation.

How Institutional Behavior Builds A Higher Floor For Bitcoin

In a market speculation, Bitcoin is currently experiencing one of the most significant capital migrations in its history, fueled by institutional adoption. Analyst Matthew noted that the current BTC market cycle from 2022 to 2025 has already absorbed an unprecedented amount of new capital, surpassing all previous BTC cycles. This growth is a reflection of the market’s maturity and the ecosystem’s innovative approach to liquidity through regulated instruments.

Furthermore, the network has incorporated more than $732 billion in fresh capital in the current cycle, surpassing the $388 billion that was injected during the 2018 to 2022 cycle. At that time, the surge helped push BTC market capitalization to an all-time high record of $1.1 trillion, a metric that indicates a much higher aggregate cost base for new institutional investors.

Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Traders Fear A Repeat Of July 2024’s Crash Next Week

Meanwhile, the total settlement volume in the decentralized BTC protocol was approximately $6.9 trillion in just 90 days. Despite this, the number of active on-chain entities dropped from 240,000 to 170,000 per day, which is a reflection of liquidity migration of capital flows into spot ETFs.

Bitcoin has been struggling to build momentum in recent weeks, and the return of cash into the system is raising questions about whether this could be the moment that changes the tone of the crypto market. That growing sense of anticipation has already started to show up in prices, with the total crypto market cap climbing more than $250 billion from its $3.016 trillion low on December 2.

What Happened: The Liquidity Injection And Why It Matters

After officially bringing its multi-year quantitative tightening (QT) program to an end, the central bank followed up with a $13.5 billion overnight repo operation, funneled through the New York Fed. Banks brought $13.5 billion in Treasuries to the Fed, the Fed accepted all of it, and instantly injected $13.5 billion of fresh reserves into the system.

The move, which is the second-largest liquidity injection since the COVID-19 crisis, effectively puts an end the steady shrinkage of bank reserves that has persisted for years, easing pressure on short-term funding markets and signaling a more accommodative liquidity environment.

The crypto market responded almost instantly. A handful of major assets began turning green within hours of the injection, with Bitcoin leading the charge with an instant break above $92,000.

The influx was visible at a macro level as well: the total crypto market cap climbed from a December 2 low of $3.016 trillion to $3.269 trillion by December 4. A gain of more than $250 billion in under 48 hours

What Investors Should Watch Next

Ending QT leads to better liquidity and often create a bullish environment for equities and other riskier investments like cryptocurrencies. However, although a single liquidity event does not guarantee a sustained multi-month rally, this injection stands out not just for its size but for what it represents. 

Related Reading: 4 Bitcoin Indicators That Led To Market Rallies In The Last 2 Years Have Returned

In a CNBC interview, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee stated that the Fed’s decision to stop QT will be a turning point for the cryptocurrency market. Lee pointed out that the last time the Fed ended QT, the market rose about 17% within three weeks.

The previous time the Fed brought quantitative tightening to a stop was in July 2019, roughly a year after it began reducing its balance sheet. In the three weeks that followed, the S&P 500 climbed about 5%. Bitcoin’s also initially rallied in the same period, but its strongest reaction came months after, towards late 2019 and early 2020.

Wall Street is preparing to welcome a major player to the New York Stock Exchange as Twenty One Capital moves toward its public debut.

This Bitcoin price prediction examines what the landmark listing could mean for BTC’s trajectory amid ongoing market volatility.

Historic Bitcoin Treasury Firm Goes Public

Bitcoin treasury firm Twenty One Capital, Inc., has received shareholder approval for its business combination with Cantor Equity Partners (CEP).

The transaction is expected to close around December 8, with the merged entity’s Class A common stock anticipated to begin trading on December 9 under the ticker symbol XXI.

“Game on. See you at the NYSE on Tuesday,” Twenty One CEO and co-founder Jack Mallers posted on X.

https://t.co/Q6w6s8GJt8

— Jack Mallers (@jackmallers) December 4, 2025

In July, Twenty One Capital announced it would hold about 43,500 BTC, currently worth approximately $4 billion, when it begins trading, following an addition of 5,800 BTC from stablecoin giant Tether.

This positions the firm as potentially the third-largest corporate Bitcoin holder, trailing only Strategy and Bitcoin miner MARA.

Twenty One, which was first announced in April, is a collaborative venture between Tether, Bitfinex, Cantor Fitzgerald, and SoftBank.

The company’s name refers to Bitcoin’s total possible supply of 21 million coins, with about 19.95 million BTC mined to date.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Eyes $81K Drop as Sellers Dominate $94K Resistance

Bitcoin is showing signs of weakening after failing to break through the $94,000 rejection block, which has acted as a strong ceiling throughout the past month. The chart clearly shows a sequence of lower highs forming right beneath this level, indicating that sellers are still in control.

Even though price briefly formed a higher high on the most recent bounce, momentum quickly faded, and the market slipped back below the key mid-range structure.

The bullish double-bottom that launched the prior rally has now run into resistance strong enough to stall the trend, and the current lower-high structure points toward exhaustion on the buyer side.

If Bitcoin loses strength below $90,000, the next support sits around $87,000. However, the major downside target remains the liquidity pocket between $82,000 and $81,400.

Unless price reclaims $94,000 with conviction, the structure favors a downside sweep toward $81,000 before any meaningful rebound materializes.

New Dogecoin-Themed Meme Coin Raises $4.2 Million in Presale

As Bitcoin consolidates, Maxi Doge ($MAXI) is surging in popularity as an Ethereum-based meme coin fusing gym-bro culture with high-leverage futures trading utility.

Priced at just $0.0002715 in its ongoing presale, the token has raised over $4.2 million, drawing interest from whales amid Dogecoin’s momentum.

Audited by Coinsult and SOLIDProof, $MAXI enters its final presale stages with imminent price hikes before exchange listings.

To buy $MAXI at $0.0002715, visit the official presale site and connect an Ethereum-compatible wallet like Best Wallet.

You can pay using crypto or a bank card to complete the purchase in seconds.

Buy $MAXI Here.

The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: Wall Street to List $4 Billion Bitcoin Firm – How High Can BTC Go? appeared first on Cryptonews.

Bitcoin is holding firmly above the $92,000 level after several days of relief and a stronger-than-expected rebound across the market. Yet despite the positive price action, analysts remain deeply divided. Some interpret this move as a classic relief rally within a broader downtrend, warning that the macro structure still favors a deeper correction.

Others see the recent recovery as the first sign that Bitcoin may be stabilizing and preparing for another bullish phase. The uncertainty reflects the conflicting signals coming from both derivatives and spot markets.

Adding fuel to the discussion, new on-chain data from Arkham shows that Matrixport withdrew 3,805 BTC—worth approximately $352.5 million—from Binance within the last 24 hours. This is a significant development, as Matrixport is one of Asia’s largest crypto financial service platforms, founded by Jihan Wu, the co-founder of Bitmain. The firm provides institutional-grade investment products, lending, trading, and asset management solutions to high-net-worth clients and funds across the region.

Large withdrawals from exchanges by institutions like Matrixport often signal accumulation, reduced selling pressure, or repositioning for custody and long-term holding. Combined with Bitcoin’s stabilization above $92K, this data adds an important layer of complexity to the current market outlook.

Institutional Positioning and a Changing Macro Landscape

Matrixport’s withdrawal of 3,805 BTC from Binance signals a potentially meaningful shift in institutional positioning. Large entities rarely move this size of capital without intention. Such withdrawals typically imply reduced selling pressure and a preference for custody over exchange liquidity, often interpreted as quiet accumulation.

For a firm managing billions in client assets, reallocating Bitcoin off exchanges suggests growing confidence in medium-term price stability or an expectation of improving market conditions.

This move arrives at a pivotal moment in the global macro environment. The Federal Reserve has ended Quantitative Tightening (QT), marking a major transition from liquidity withdrawal to a more accommodative stance. Historically, the end of QT has preceded periods of asset reflation, as systemic liquidity begins to stabilize.

At the same time, Japanese bond yields have surged, signaling stress in one of the world’s most influential funding markets. A spike in Japanese yields often triggers global liquidity adjustments, particularly through the carry trade, which can ultimately redirect capital toward risk assets—including Bitcoin.

Additionally, markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon, further easing financial conditions. Lower rates weaken the dollar, reduce funding costs, and typically stimulate inflows into alternative and high-beta assets.

In this environment of softening monetary policy and rising liquidity, Matrixport’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation could reflect growing institutional conviction that the worst of the downturn is behind us—and that Bitcoin may be entering a more favorable macro phase.

BTC Price Analysis: Testing Recovery Momentum

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the market attempting to stabilize after the sharp decline that pushed price toward the mid-$80,000s. The rebound into the $91K–$93K zone marks the first meaningful recovery attempt, but the structure still reflects caution.

BTC remains below the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, which have both started to slope downward, signaling that the broader trend has not yet shifted back in favor of the bulls. Until Bitcoin reclaims these moving averages with strong volume, the market will likely see this move as a relief rally rather than a confirmed reversal.

Price is currently consolidating above the 200-day SMA, a level that often acts as a long-term trend gauge. Holding this region is essential; losing it would risk a deeper drop toward earlier support zones near $82K–$84K. Volume activity during the bounce shows some improvement, yet it remains far below the levels seen during the late-October peak, suggesting that buyers are cautious and large players are not fully engaged.

The chart also shows a clear lower-high structure forming since September, confirming the bearish pressure that has dominated the last several weeks. For sentiment to shift decisively, BTC must break above $95K and rebuild momentum toward the psychological $100K mark. Until then, volatility and hesitation remain the defining features of this recovery.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is trading around $91,000 after a minor dip earlier today, and uncertainty continues to dominate sentiment. The market sits at a crossroads: a small but vocal group of analysts argues that the recent correction served as a healthy reset before a continuation of the broader uptrend, while the majority of traders believe the first leg of a new bear market is already underway. With price action still showing hesitation, the debate grows louder by the day.

According to top analyst Darkfost, a critical threshold will help determine Bitcoin’s next major direction. He highlights the importance of the Realized Price of the youngest Long-Term Holder (LTH) band, which currently sits at $96,956. This metric marks the transition point between short-term and long-term holders and is viewed as a psychological and structural barrier for market stability.

Reclaiming this level would push these young LTHs back into a comfortable profit zone, reducing their incentive to sell and helping to restore confidence across the market. Until Bitcoin closes decisively above $97K, Darkfost warns that caution is warranted, as volatility remains high and the risk of further downside persists.

Why the $97K Threshold Matters for Bitcoin’s Next Major Move

Darkfost emphasizes that the $96,956–$97,000 zone plays a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin’s next phase. This level represents the Realized Price of the youngest Long-Term Holder band, meaning it reflects the average cost basis of investors who recently transitioned from short-term to long-term holding behavior. When Bitcoin trades below this threshold, these holders sit at an unrealized loss, increasing the likelihood of panic selling and adding pressure to the market.

Breaking above this zone would flip sentiment for this group almost immediately. Darkfost explains that reclaiming $97K would place these investors back into a comfortable profit position, restoring their confidence and expectations of potential gains. Once this psychological weight lifts, these holders typically choose to keep accumulating rather than selling, which naturally brings more stability to the market.

However, he cautions that Bitcoin’s failure to close above $97,000 keeps the risk tilted to the downside. As long as the price remains below this band, the market stays vulnerable, and volatility may continue.

Even if BTC successfully reclaims $97K, Darkfost reminds that this is only the first step. The market would still need stronger structural confirmation—such as reclaiming key moving averages and rebuilding demand—to validate a true bullish reversal that could eventually lead to a new all-time high.

BTC Weekly Structure Shows Early Signs of Stabilization

Bitcoin’s weekly chart reflects a market trying to stabilize after a sharp multi-week correction that dragged the price from above $115,000 down toward the mid-$80,000s. The latest weekly candle shows a firm rebound from the 100-week moving average (green line), now acting as dynamic support around the $84,000–$86,000 region. This level historically attracts long-term buyers, and the strong wick rejection confirms renewed demand.

BTC is currently trading near $91,300, sitting just below the 50-week moving average (blue line), which now acts as resistance. A clean reclaim of this moving average—currently positioned around $95K–$97K—would significantly improve the technical outlook and align with on-chain signals calling for a recovery. Until then, the trend remains neutral-to-bearish on higher timeframes.

Volume during the recent bounce stands out, showing one of the strongest buying reactions since early 2025. This suggests that long-term holders and institutional buyers may be stepping in as the price approaches key value zones.

However, Bitcoin is not out of danger. Failures to break above $97K would leave the structure vulnerable to another leg down, potentially retesting $86K or even deeper liquidity pockets around $80K.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Price Craters to $88,000, But JPMorgan Maintains $170,000 Target

Bitcoin price plunged to $88,000s on Friday, down over 4% in the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency is trading near its seven-day low of $88,091, and about 4% below its seven-day high of $92,805. 

The global market capitalization for Bitcoin now stands at $1.77 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $48 billion.

Despite the recent drop, Wall Street bank JPMorgan remains bullish on the Bitcoin price over the long term. The bank continues to maintain its gold-linked volatility-adjusted BTC target of $170,000 over the next six to twelve months. 

Analysts say the model accounts for fluctuations in price and mining costs.

One key factor in the market is Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate Bitcoin holder. The company owns 650,000 BTC. Its enterprise-value-to-Bitcoin-holdings ratio, known as mNAV, currently stands at 1.13. 

JPMorgan analysts describe this as “encouraging.” A ratio above 1.0 indicates Strategy is unlikely to face forced sales of its Bitcoin.

JUST IN: JPMorgan says it is sticking to its Bitcoin vs gold model target, which would see BTC hit $170,000 over the next year pic.twitter.com/PNt9ojpBRv

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) December 5, 2025

Strategy has also built a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve. The reserve is designed to cover dividend payments and interest obligations for at least 12 months. The company aims to extend coverage to 24 months. 

Bitcoin mining pressure

Mining pressures continue to weigh on Bitcoin. The network’s hashrate and mining difficulty have fallen. High-cost miners outside China are retreating due to rising electricity costs and declining prices. Some miners have sold Bitcoin to remain solvent. 

JPMorgan now estimates Bitcoin’s production cost at $90,000, down from $94,000 last month. Falling hashrates can push production costs lower, but the short-term effect is sustained selling pressure from miners.

Institutional investors also show caution. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, or IBIT, has recorded six consecutive weeks of net outflows. Investors pulled more than $2.8 billion from the ETF over this period, according to Bloomberg.

The withdrawals highlight subdued appetite among traditional investors, even as Bitcoin prices stabilize. Analysts note that the trend marks a reversal from the persistent inflows seen earlier in the year.

The broader market is still recovering from the October 10 liquidation event. That crash wiped out over $1 trillion in crypto market value and pushed Bitcoin into a bear market.

Although the Bitcoin price has recovered some ground this week, momentum remains fragile.

JPMorgan analysts now say Bitcoin’s next major move depends less on miner behavior. Instead, it depends on Strategy’s ability to hold its Bitcoin without selling. The mNAV ratio and reserve fund provide confidence that the company can weather market volatility.

Other potential catalysts remain. The MSCI index decision on January 15 could impact Strategy’s stock and, indirectly, Bitcoin. Analysts say a positive outcome could trigger a strong rally.

Last week, Strategy’s Michael Saylor disputed MSCI index disputes and clarified that Strategy is a publicly traded operating company with a $500 million software business and a treasury strategy using Bitcoin, not a fund, trust, or holding company. 

He emphasized the firm’s recent activity, including five digital credit security offerings totaling over $7.7 billion in notional value.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin Magazine analysts believe that the bitcoin price correlation with Gold has recently strengthened mainly during market downturns, offering a clearer view of its purchasing power when analyzed against Gold instead of USD.

Breaking below the 350-day moving average (~$100,000) and the $100K psychological level signaled Bitcoin’s entry into a bear market, dropping roughly 20% immediately. 

While USD charts show a 2025 peak, Bitcoin measured in Gold peaked in December 2024 and has fallen over 50%, suggesting a longer bear phase. 

Historical Gold-based bear cycles indicate potential support zones approaching, with current declines at 51% over 350 days reflecting institutional adoption and constrained supply rather than cycle shifts.

For now, bitcoin price hovers near $88,000. 

This post Bitcoin Price Craters to $88,000, But JPMorgan Maintains $170,000 Target first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin Magazine

Indiana Lawmakers Push Bill to Make State a Bitcoin Leader

Indiana lawmakers are taking a bold step toward embracing bitcoin. A new proposal would let the state invest in digital assets like Bitcoin through regulated funds while blocking local governments from restricting crypto companies.

The measure, House Bill 1042, reflects growing political and financial interest in crypto. Digital assets once seen as fringe now have backing from top U.S. leaders, including President Donald Trump, and major financial institutions. 

Congress also passed its first major crypto bill earlier this year.

Indiana wants in. Lawmakers gave HB 1042 an early hearing as they juggle redistricting, signaling the issue is a top priority for Republicans.

“Digital assets are quickly becoming part of everyday finances, and Indiana should be ready to engage in a smart, responsible way,” said bill author Rep. Kyle Pierce, R-Anderson. “This bill gives Hoosiers more investment choices while establishing guardrails and helping us explore how blockchain and digital asset technology can benefit communities across our state.”

A cautious bitcoin and crypto approach

The Indiana bill would let public investment funds gain exposure to digital assets, but only indirectly. It does not allow direct crypto purchases. 

Instead, it authorizes cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds, or ETFs. These funds track crypto prices and operate under federal oversight.

ETFs offer more stability than holding tokens directly, but risks remain. The SEC has warned that crypto markets still lack strong safeguards and are vulnerable to fraud and manipulation.

That concern surfaced in testimony from Tony Green, deputy executive director of the Indiana Public Retirement System. He said INPRS was neutral on the bill but would want clear disclaimers about volatility. He also noted members have shown little interest in crypto options.

Under the bill, several major programs in Indiana must offer at least one crypto ETF. That list includes the 529 education savings plan, the Hoosier START plan, and retirement systems for teachers, public employees, and lawmakers. 

Other state funds would also gain authority to invest in crypto ETFs. The state treasurer could place assets in stablecoin ETFs as well.

Guardrails and a task force

The bill goes beyond investments. It would restrict how Indiana state agencies and local governments regulate digital assets. Pierce said the aim is fairness. The measure bars local rules that target crypto use, mining operations, or self-custody.

It also protects private keys as privileged information.

The proposal creates a Blockchain and Digital Assets Task Force. The group would study potential government and consumer uses of the technology. It would also recommend pilot projects across the state.

Bitcoin is a national trend

States are increasingly exploring crypto in pension funds and public accounts. The push comes as Bitcoin gains traction as a potential store of value for governments. Some federal proposals have even floated using Bitcoin reserves to offset national debt.

Last week, Texas became the first U.S. state to purchase Bitcoin through a spot ETF, buying $5 million worth via BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, according to Texas Blockchain Council President Lee Bratcher. 

The acquisition is the state’s first move under its new Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, created by legislation signed in June. 

Texas plans to eventually self-custody its BTC but used IBIT for the initial allocation while the procurement process continues. The purchase highlights rising state and institutional interest in Bitcoin as a reserve asset. 

Harvard University recently tripled its IBIT holdings to $442.8 million, while Emory University and Abu Dhabi’s Al Warda Investments have also boosted exposure. 

Texas had previously explored a Bitcoin reserve proposal that called for cold storage, resident donations, and annual audits.

Meanwhile, New Hampshire approved a $100 million Bitcoin-backed municipal bond, the first of its kind globally, requiring borrowers to over-collateralize with BTC.

At the time of writing, the bitcoin price is flirting with $90,000.

This post Indiana Lawmakers Push Bill to Make State a Bitcoin Leader first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has logged its longest stretch of weekly withdrawals since the fund launched in January 2024, marking a sharp turn in institutional sentiment toward Bitcoin even as prices steady.

Investors pulled more than $2.7 billion from the fund over the five weeks ending Nov. 28, according to data from SoSoValue.

Redemptions continued on Thursday with an additional $113 million, putting the ETF on track for a sixth consecutive week of outflows.

IBIT Faces Reversal as Crypto Wipeout Ends Months of Steady Inflows

IBIT, which manages more than $71 billion in assets, has been the flagship vehicle for traditional investors seeking regulated exposure to Bitcoin.

However, flows have reversed direction since early October, when a violent liquidation across crypto markets triggered a sell-off that erased more than $1 trillion in digital-asset value.

The shift stands in contrast to the steady inflows that helped propel Bitcoin higher earlier in the year.

Last week, speaking in São Paulo, BlackRock business development director Cristiano Castro said the company’s Bitcoin ETFs had become one of its strongest revenue engines, calling their rapid ascent “a big surprise” as investor allocations surged throughout the year.

Castro also downplayed outflow concerns, noting that “ETFs are very liquid and powerful instruments.”

“What we’ve been seeing is perfectly normal; any asset that starts to experience compression usually has this effect, especially in an instrument that is heavily controlled by retail investors,” he added.

$ETH ETF outflow of $41,500,000 yesterday.

BlackRock bought $28,400,000 in Ethereum. pic.twitter.com/LudLAdu0rg

— Ted (@TedPillows) December 5, 2025

Bitcoin has clawed back some losses this week, but analysts say ETF flows paint a clearer picture of institutional caution.

In a recent report, Glassnode wrote that the outflow streak “marks a clear reversal from the persistent inflow regime that supported price earlier in the year, and reflects a cooling of new capital allocation into the asset.”

The firm noted that investor positioning has become more defensive as volatility and funding pressure remain elevated.

Despite the turbulence, Bitcoin traded around $92,000 in London on Friday morning, still down 27% from its October peak.

Spot Chainlink ETF Pulls $41M on First Day

As reported, Grayscale’s first US spot exchange-traded fund tied to Chainlink opened with solid demand, adding another data point to the debate over whether appetite for altcoins can survive a cooling crypto market.

The product ended its debut session with $41 million in net inflows and about $13 million in trading volume.

The figures placed Chainlink among the stronger ETF launches this year and suggested that, at least for some investors, regulated vehicles remain the preferred route into higher-risk digital assets.

The new Chainlink ETF comes amid the rollout of a wave of new altcoin ETFs.

Over the past month, issuers have launched products tied to Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin, with more XRP and Dogecoin funds set to list next week.

The Canary Capital XRP ETF (XRPC) debuted with $58 million in net inflows, the highest opening-day haul for any ETF this year, edging out the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL), which launched with $57 million.

The post BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Bleeds $2.7B in Longest Outflow Streak Since Launch appeared first on Cryptonews.

After a brief moment of bullish performance in Bitcoin, the price experienced a sudden pullback due to a broader market shakedown, which caused BTC to revisit the $90,000 threshold. While this pullback has sparked a frenzy in the cryptocurrency community, on-chain data has revealed a shocking trend about the sudden pullback.

True Capitulation, Not A Routine Bitcoin Pullback

The market was rocked by a recent decline in the price of Bitcoin, but this pullback comes with an extra layer. Alphractal, an advanced investment and on-chain data analytics platform, has shed crucial insights about the decline using several key indicators to determine the unseen trend.

After carrying out its research, the on-chain platform revealed that the latest Bitcoin drop was not just another correction, but a clear instance of a capitulation event. This abrupt turnaround seems to have embodied all the characteristics of a full-scale capitulation event. These include an emotional flush-out when panic selling, forced liquidations, and intense dread came together in one dramatic moment.

Alphractal’s reading is backed by three major signals that rarely show up together, suggesting a pivotal moment for BTC. Such a trend may be the turning point that reshapes the short-term trajectory of the crypto king.

The first signal highlighted by the platform comes from the Bitcoin Hash Rate, which has witnessed a steady decline over the last 30 days. Presently, miners are turning off their machines, triggering heightened pressure on the ecosystem. When miners begin to lose money, it typically implies that the market might have reached its peak.

Another signal is coming from the BTC price drawdown. After a fast, violent drop, the metric is hitting extreme levels beyond the historical median. This is not just a technical drop, but it’s pain, triggered by forced selling and liquidation.

A Rare Trend And A Good Entry Opportunity

Finally, the last signal is the recent spike in active supply as those holding BTC for months or years have begun spending their coins. A behavior of this kind only unfolds when investors exhibit heightened caution, causing sentiment to drop. 

An interesting aspect about this trend is that when these 3 signals flash in unison, the Capitulation Oscillator tends to rise. This is a moment that nearly always denotes the conclusion of a downward trend or a leveling phase, as was the case in 2021.

While it has played out in previous scenarios, it is not a guarantee of an immediate bottom. However, moments like these have historically been uncommon and frequently present opportunities that only occur once or twice every cycle, especially for those rooted in on-chain data.

Joao Wedson, the founder of Alphractal, also confirms these signals, which point to real capitulation. According to Wedson, the recent correction was the most severe capitulation event since 2022. 

Nonetheless, this has traditionally led to the formation of long accumulation regions before the price makes its next macro direction. In other words, Wedson noted that the highest probability scenario is that 2025 will end in a broad sideways range; a classic phase of accumulation or redistribution.

Bitcoin Magazine

Why The Bitcoin Bear Market Is Almost Finished

Bitcoin has struggled to maintain a sustained correlation with Gold, recently only moving in unison during market downturns. However, examining Bitcoin’s price action through the lens of Gold rather than USD reveals a more complete picture of the current market cycle. By measuring Bitcoin’s true purchasing power against comparable assets, we can identify potential support levels and gauge where the bear market cycle may be approaching its conclusion.

Bitcoin Bear Market Officially Begins Below Key Support

Breaking beneath the 350-day moving average at about $100,000 and the significant psychological 6-figure barrier marked the functional entry into bear market territory, with Bitcoin declining approximately 20% immediately thereafter. From a technical perspective, trading beneath The Golden Ratio Multiplier moving average has historically indicated Bitcoin entering a bear cycle, though the narrative becomes more interesting when measured against Gold rather than USD.

The Bitcoin versus Gold chart tells a notably different story than the USD chart. Bitcoin topped out in December 2024 and has since declined over 50% from that level, whereas the USD valuation peaked in October 2025, significantly beneath the highs set the prior year. This divergence suggests that Bitcoin may have been in a bear market for considerably longer than most observers realize. Looking at historical Bitcoin bear cycles when measured in Gold, we can see patterns that suggest the current pullback may already be approaching critical support zones.

The 2015 bear cycle bottomed at an 86% retracement lasting 406 days. The 2017 cycle saw 364 days and an 84% decline. The previous bear cycle produced a 76% drawdown over 399 days. Currently, at the time of this analysis, Bitcoin is down 51% in 350 days when measured against Gold. While percentage drawdowns have been diminishing as Bitcoin’s market cap grows and more capital flows into the market, this trend reflects the rising tide of institutional adoption and lost Bitcoin supply rather than a fundamental change in cycle dynamics.

Multi-Cycle Confluence Signals Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Approaching

Rather than relying solely on percentage drawdowns and time elapsed, Fibonacci retracement levels mapped across multiple cycles provide greater precision. Using a Fibonacci retracement tool from bottom to top across historical cycles reveals striking levels of confluence.

In the 2015-2018 cycle, the bear market bottom occurred at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which corresponded to approximately 2.56 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin. The resulting price action marked the bottom with remarkable clarity, far cleaner than the equivalent USD chart. Moving forward to the 2018-2022 cycle, the bear market bottom aligned almost perfectly with the 0.5 level at approximately 9.74 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin. This level later acted as meaningful resistance-turned-support once Bitcoin reclaimed it during the subsequent bull market.

Translating Bitcoin Bear Market Gold Ratios Back to USD Price Targets

From the previous bear market low through the current bull cycle high, the 0.618 Fibonacci level sits at approximately 22.81 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin, while the 0.5 level rests at 19.07 ounces. Current price action is trading near the midpoint of these two levels, presenting what may be an attractive accumulation zone from a purchasing power perspective.

Multiple Fibonacci levels from different cycles create additional confluence. The 0.786 level from the current cycle translates to approximately 21.05 ounces of Gold, corresponding to a Bitcoin price around $89,160. The 0.618 level from the previous cycle aligns near $80,000 again. These convergence zones suggest that if Bitcoin were to decline further, the next meaningful technical target would be around $67,000, derived from the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at approximately 15.95 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin.

Conclusion: The Bitcoin Bear Market May Be 90% Complete Already

Bitcoin has likely been in a bear market for substantially longer than USD-only analysis suggests, with purchasing power already declining significantly since December 2024, when measured against Gold and other comparable assets. Historical Fibonacci retracement levels, when properly calibrated across multiple cycles and converted back into USD terms, point toward potential support confluence in the $67,000 to $80,000 range. While this analysis is inherently theoretical and unlikely to play out with perfect precision, the convergence of multiple data points across time horizons and valuation frameworks suggests the bear market may be approaching its conclusion sooner than many anticipate.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Proof This Bitcoin Bear Market May Be OVER Already

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Why The Bitcoin Bear Market Is Almost Finished first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Total BTC futures open interest is slipping, signaling a quiet de‑leveraging across CME, Binance and offshore venues rather than outright panic. Total BTC futures open interest remains elevated, with a measured reduction in leverage rather than a disorderly unwind.​ Total…

JPMorgan analysts say the near-term direction of Bitcoin’s price now depends less on miner behavior and more on the financial resilience of Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, even as mining pressure and market volatility persist.

In a report led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the bank identified two forces currently weighing on Bitcoin. The first is a recent decline in Bitcoin’s network hashrate and mining difficulty.

The second is the growing market focus on Strategy’s balance sheet and its ability to avoid selling its Bitcoin holdings during the ongoing market downturn.

High-Cost Bitcoin Miners Capitulate as Hashrate Slips and Margins Collapse

The decline in hashrate reflects a combination of China reiterating its ban on private mining activity and high-cost miners outside the country retreating as falling Bitcoin prices and elevated electricity costs squeeze profitability.

JPMorgan now estimates Bitcoin’s production cost at $90,000, down from $94,000 last month. The estimate assumes electricity priced at $0.05 per kilowatt hour, with every $0.01 increase adding roughly $18,000 to production costs for higher-cost miners.

With Bitcoin trading near $92,000, JPMorgan said the asset continues to hover close to its estimated production cost, creating sustained selling pressure from miners.

As profits tighten, several high-cost producers have been forced to liquidate Bitcoin holdings in recent weeks to remain solvent.

Despite those pressures, JPMorgan said miners are no longer the key driver of Bitcoin’s next major move. Instead, attention has shifted to Strategy’s ability to maintain its Bitcoin position without being forced into sales.

Strategy’s enterprise-value-to-Bitcoin-holdings ratio currently stands at 1.13. That figure reflects the combined market value of its debt, preferred stock, and equity relative to the market value of its Bitcoin treasury.

According to JPMorgan, the fact that the ratio remains above 1.0 is “encouraging” because it shows that Strategy is unlikely to face pressure to sell Bitcoin to meet interest or dividend obligations.

The company recently reinforced that position by creating a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve through ongoing at-the-market equity sales.

The reserve is designed to cover dividend payments and interest expenses for at least 12 months, with the company targeting coverage of up to 24 months.

JPMorgan said the reserve significantly reduces the risk of forced Bitcoin sales in the foreseeable future.

JPMorgan Sees $170K Bitcoin Scenario Despite Strategy’s MSCI Index Risk

Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation has slowed sharply in recent months, though it remains deeply exposed to price movements.

In November, it added 8,178 BTC in its largest purchase since July, bringing total holdings to roughly 650,000 BTC. Its basic market capitalization stands near $54 billion, with an enterprise value of about $69 billion.

Markets are also watching an upcoming decision by MSCI on whether to remove Strategy and other digital-asset treasury companies from its equity indices. JPMorgan said the downside risk from exclusion is largely priced in.

Since MSCI launched its review in October, Strategy’s share price has fallen roughly 40%, underperforming Bitcoin by about $18 billion in market value.

JPMorgan estimates that an MSCI exclusion could trigger $2.8 billion in passive outflows, with as much as $8.8 billion at risk if other index providers follow suit.

Even so, the bank said further downside would likely be limited. By contrast, if MSCI keeps Strategy in major indices, JPMorgan said both Strategy and Bitcoin could rebound sharply toward pre-October levels.

Beyond corporate balance sheets, JPMorgan continues to point to broader crypto market structure for longer-term upside. The bank said perpetual futures deleveraging appears largely complete following record liquidations in October.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s volatility ratio relative to gold has improved, strengthening its risk-adjusted appeal to investors.

Based on those metrics, JPMorgan reiterated its volatility-adjusted comparison of Bitcoin to gold, which implies a theoretical Bitcoin price near $170,000 over the next six to twelve months if market conditions stabilize.

Notably, Bitcoin is currently trading about $68,000 below that level.

The post Bitcoin Price Could Hit $170K — But Strategy ‘Resilience’ Is Vital: JPMorgan appeared first on Cryptonews.