Bitcoin is struggling to break away from the bearish market structure that has been in place since late October. Despite several short-lived relief rallies, price action continues to reflect weakness, with bulls failing to reclaim key resistance levels or generate sustained momentum.

As uncertainty and fatigue spread across the market, many participants are questioning whether Bitcoin’s current behavior fits the traditional cycle framework that has defined previous bull and bear phases.

A recent analysis by Darkfost highlights a structural shift that adds important context to this debate. According to the data, the number of active Bitcoin addresses has been in a persistent decline since April 2021. Historically, bullish phases were characterized by a clear expansion in active addresses, as new investors entered the market and on-chain activity surged. This growth typically peaked near cycle tops, followed by a contraction during bear markets as participation dried up.

This cycle, however, looks markedly different. Even during periods of strong price performance since 2022, active addresses have failed to recover meaningfully and continue trending lower. This divergence suggests that Bitcoin’s market structure may be evolving away from a retail-driven, on-chain participation model toward something more concentrated and institutionally influenced.

As Bitcoin attempts to stabilize after weeks of downside pressure, understanding these structural changes is becoming critical. The decline in active addresses may not simply signal weakness, but rather a transformation in how Bitcoin is held, traded, and valued in this cycle.

Active Addresses Signal A Structural Shift In The Market

The analysis suggests that despite Bitcoin’s strong price performance since 2022, on-chain participation continues to deteriorate. Active addresses are once again approaching the lowest levels observed during this cycle, highlighting a growing disconnect between price action and network activity. At the peak in April 2021, Bitcoin recorded roughly 1.15 million active addresses. Today, that figure has nearly halved, sitting near 680,000, a contraction that cannot be ignored.

This decline is difficult to attribute to a single cause. Instead, it likely reflects a combination of structural changes in how Bitcoin is held and accessed. One contributing factor appears to be the rise in inactive addresses. While precise classification criteria vary, the broader trend points toward a stronger long-term holding mentality, where coins remain dormant rather than actively transacted on-chain. This behavior reduces visible network activity without necessarily implying bearish conviction.

At the same time, a portion of market participants may have shifted away from direct on-chain usage altogether. Centralized exchanges, custodial platforms, and financial products such as ETFs offer exposure to Bitcoin without requiring on-chain interaction. As a result, demand for block space declines even as capital allocation to Bitcoin remains significant.

Taken together, the sustained drop in active addresses suggests Bitcoin’s market structure is evolving. The network is becoming less retail-driven and more concentrated, reinforcing the idea that traditional cycle metrics may be losing some of their explanatory power in this environment.

Bitcoin Price Tests Long-Term Support as Structure Weakens

Bitcoin continues to trade under pressure, with the chart highlighting a clear deterioration in market structure. After failing to sustain prices above the $100K–$110K zone earlier in the year, BTC has entered a corrective phase marked by lower highs and heavy selling momentum. The recent move toward the $87K area places price directly on a critical demand zone, closely aligned with the rising long-term moving averages.

From a trend perspective, the loss of the short- and medium-term moving averages is significant. The blue and green averages have rolled over, acting as dynamic resistance rather than support, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Price is now hovering just above the red long-term moving average, a level that has historically defined the boundary between bull market corrections and deeper bearish transitions. A clean breakdown below this zone would materially increase downside risk toward the low-$80K region.

Volume behavior adds further context. Selling pressure expanded notably during the sharp drawdown from the highs, while recent bounce attempts have occurred on comparatively weaker volume. This suggests that dip-buying interest remains cautious rather than aggressive. Structurally, the market appears to be consolidating after distribution, not building a strong base yet.

In the near term, holding the $85K–$88K range is crucial. A failure to defend this area would confirm a broader trend shift, while reclaiming the $95K–$100K region is required to neutralize the current bearish structure.

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Bitcoin is once again testing investor conviction as it struggles to reclaim the $90,000 level, a price zone that has now become a clear psychological and structural barrier. After weeks of choppy price action and repeated failures to sustain upside momentum, sentiment across the market has shifted sharply.

Fear and apathy are increasingly dominant, with a growing number of analysts and participants beginning to call for a broader bear market. For many investors, the narrative has changed from buying dips to questioning whether the cycle has already peaked.

This deterioration in confidence is occurring alongside renewed selling pressure from large, well-capitalized players. According to data from Arkham, two wallets linked to Matrixport deposited a combined 4,000 BTC, worth approximately $347.56 million, into Binance today.

Matrixport is a large digital-asset financial services platform founded by former Bitmain executives, offering products including crypto lending, structured products, asset management, and custody solutions.

Such large inflows to exchanges are closely watched by the market, as they often precede distribution or hedging activity, particularly during periods of heightened uncertainty. While not every deposit translates directly into spot selling, the timing of these transfers adds to the growing sense of caution.

Whether current demand can absorb this supply and stabilize price will likely determine if this phase becomes a deeper correction—or the start of a more prolonged bearish regime.

Exchange Inflows And What They Mean For Bitcoin

Large Bitcoin deposits to exchanges are almost always interpreted by the market as a bearish signal, since they increase the immediate supply available for sale. In most historical cases, sharp spikes in exchange inflows have preceded periods of downside volatility, reinforcing the perception that whales are preparing to distribute into liquidity. However, some investors urge caution when reading this data in isolation, as not every exchange transfer results in spot selling.

In certain scenarios, large inflows can be linked to internal treasury management, collateral rotation, or the opening of hedged derivatives positions rather than outright liquidation. Institutions may move Bitcoin to centralized venues to post margin for futures or options, allowing them to hedge downside risk without selling their underlying holdings.

In other cases, funds prepare liquidity for over-the-counter settlements or cross-exchange arbitrage, activities that do not necessarily translate into sustained selling pressure on the spot market.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s price action over the coming months will likely depend on whether these inflows are followed by a clear increase in realized selling volume. If demand continues to absorb supply near the $85K–$86K zone, the market could transition into a prolonged consolidation phase, allowing sentiment to reset.

However, if exchange balances continue to rise alongside weakening spot demand, downside risks remain elevated. In that scenario, Bitcoin may revisit lower support levels before any durable recovery can begin.

Price Tests Critical Long-Term Support

Bitcoin’s higher-timeframe structure shows a clear loss of momentum after failing to hold above prior highs. On the weekly chart, BTC is now consolidating around the $86,000–$87,000 zone after a sharp rejection from the $110,000–$120,000 region. This area has become a critical demand zone, as price is currently hovering near the rising 200-day moving average, which historically acts as a key trend filter during cycle transitions.

The short-term structure remains fragile. Bitcoin is trading below the 50-week moving average, which has started to roll over, signaling weakening upside momentum. Meanwhile, the 100-week moving average is still trending higher and sits below the current price, suggesting that the broader macro trend has not fully broken but is clearly under stress.

From a price-action perspective, BTC is forming a lower high relative to the previous cycle peak, while volatility remains compressed. This often precedes a larger directional move. If bulls fail to defend the $85,000 support decisively, the next downside targets sit near the $78,000–$80,000 region, where previous consolidation occurred.

Conversely, any structural recovery would require a reclaim and weekly close above $90,000, followed by sustained acceptance above the 50-week average.

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Bitcoin has lost more than 30% of its value since early October, triggering a sharp shift in market psychology. What was once viewed as a routine correction is increasingly being interpreted by analysts as a potential cycle top. Sentiment has deteriorated quickly, with fear and apathy replacing the optimism that dominated earlier in the year.

Many investors are now positioning defensively, preparing for what they believe could be a prolonged bear market phase similar to past post-peak cycles.

However, a recent CryptoQuant report challenges this increasingly popular narrative. According to the analysis, Bitcoin may no longer be following the traditional four-year boom-and-bust cycle that has defined its historical price behavior.

Instead, the report introduces the Bitcoin Supercycle thesis, which argues that the classic halving-driven cycle structure could be breaking down in favor of a more extended, structurally supported bull market.

The core idea behind the supercycle framework is that Bitcoin’s market dynamics have fundamentally changed. Unlike previous cycles driven largely by speculative retail flows, the current environment is shaped by new forces that did not exist in earlier eras.

These structural shifts may be altering how drawdowns, tops, and recoveries unfold, potentially smoothing volatility over longer time horizons.

The New Fundamentals Behind Bitcoin’s Supercycle Thesis

According to the CryptoQuant report, the case for a potential Bitcoin supercycle is built on structural forces that were absent in previous market cycles. The most significant shift comes from institutional adoption. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, led by issuers such as BlackRock, have introduced a persistent and regulated source of demand from traditional finance.

Unlike speculative retail flows, these vehicles treat Bitcoin as a strategic asset allocation, creating steady absorption rather than short-lived hype.

On-chain data further reinforces this narrative. Exchange reserves continue to trend lower, signaling long-term accumulation and reduced sell-side pressure. At the same time, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remains relatively rational. Profit-taking is occurring, but without the euphoric spikes historically associated with cycle tops, suggesting a more mature and disciplined market structure.

Infrastructure readiness is another critical pillar. While Bitcoin remains the core asset, scalability improvements across the broader crypto ecosystem—such as Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade and the rapid expansion of Layer-2 networks—are enabling faster, cheaper transactions and real-world use cases. This enhances Bitcoin’s role as a settlement and reserve asset within a growing digital economy.

Finally, the macro backdrop remains supportive. Geopolitical instability and the prospect of future monetary easing strengthen Bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral, decentralized hard asset. Together, these forces form a credible foundation for an extended supercycle, though the report cautions that external shocks could still disrupt this trajectory.

Price Action Shows Weak Structure Near Key Support

Bitcoin’s short-term structure remains fragile, as shown on the 4-hour chart. Price continues to trade below the $90,000 psychological level, with repeated failures to reclaim key moving averages reinforcing the bearish bias. The 200-period moving average (red) is clearly sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance near the $92,000–$93,000 zone, while the 100- and 50-period averages (green and blue) have compressed and rolled over, signaling fading upside momentum.

After the sharp sell-off earlier in the month, Bitcoin attempted a recovery but stalled below descending resistance. Since then, the price has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming a short-term downtrend. The current consolidation around $86,000–$87,000 suggests indecision, but notably, bounces are becoming weaker, indicating limited demand on relief rallies.

From a technical perspective, the $85,000–$86,000 area represents a critical support zone. A sustained break below this range would likely open the door to a deeper correction. Conversely, bulls would need a decisive reclaim of $90,000, followed by acceptance above the descending moving averages, to meaningfully shift momentum. Until then, the chart favors consolidation with downside risk.

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Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $90,000 level as it continues to test critical demand around the $86,000 zone. After weeks of corrective price action, bulls are finding it increasingly difficult to build a convincing case for trend continuation.

Momentum has faded, upside attempts have been rejected, and market confidence is weakening. As a result, a growing number of analysts are beginning to openly discuss the possibility that Bitcoin is transitioning into a broader bear market phase rather than a temporary pullback within a larger uptrend.

This shift in narrative is supported by structural data. In a recent analysis, Axel Adler highlights that Bitcoin’s price action is now aligned with a clear deterioration in market structure. His chart, which combines a composite Structure Shift signal with a Donchian Channel, shows that the indicator has decisively moved into negative territory.

The Structure Shift composite ranges from -1 to +1, with values below zero signaling bearish regime dominance. Currently, the signal sits near -0.5, a level historically associated with sustained downside pressure rather than short-lived corrections.

At the same time, Bitcoin price has dropped to the lower boundary of the 21-day Donchian Channel and is hovering just above the $85,000 support area. Together, these signals suggest that the market is operating in a risk-off environment, where downside risks remain elevated unless structure improves meaningfully.

Bitcoin Structure Confirms Bearish Regime

Adler notes that the current position of the Structure Shift composite signal confirms Bitcoin has firmly established itself within a bearish structural zone. With the indicator sitting below zero, the market is no longer in a neutral or transitional phase but operating under sustained downside conditions.

According to this framework, the primary trigger for improvement would be a decisive recovery of the composite signal back above the zero threshold, ideally while price continues to hold support within the Donchian Channel. Without that shift, any short-term bounce risks remaining corrective rather than trend-changing.

This bearish structure is reinforced by Bitcoin’s Bull-Bear market structure index, which focuses on derivatives dynamics through fast and slow regime components. The latest data shows the bullish component collapsing to just 5%, an extremely low reading that reflects the near absence of constructive long-side momentum. At the same time, the fast bearish component has moved deeper into negative territory, signaling rising seller pressure driven primarily by the futures market.

This configuration highlights a critical imbalance. Short-term momentum is firmly controlled by bears, while spot demand has so far proven insufficient to absorb derivatives-led selling pressure. For conditions to improve, the bullish component of the index would need to recover meaningfully, signaling renewed participation from buyers.

Taken together, both indicators point to the same conclusion: Bitcoin has undergone a local structural shift into bearish territory. The dominant risk remains continued downside pressure driven by derivatives, especially in the absence of strong spot accumulation.

Bitcoin Price Tests Critical Support as Downtrend Persists

Bitcoin continues to trade under clear downside pressure. The price now hovers around the $86,500 level after failing to reclaim higher resistance zones. The chart highlights a decisive breakdown below the short- and medium-term moving averages. With BTC trading well beneath the 50-day and 100-day averages. These levels, which previously acted as dynamic support during the uptrend, have now flipped into resistance. Reinforcing the bearish market structure.

The most notable technical development is Bitcoin’s interaction with the 200-day moving average, shown in red. Price has briefly tested this long-term support but remains fragile, with follow-through buying notably absent. Historically, sustained trading below faster-moving averages while compressing near the 200-day often signals either a prolonged consolidation phase or the risk of an additional leg lower if demand fails to appear.

Structurally, Bitcoin remains in a lower-high, lower-low sequence since the October peak near $125K. As long as price remains capped below the $90K–$95K resistance zone, downside risks persist. For bulls to regain control, BTC must first stabilize above current demand and reclaim key moving averages. Signaling that sellers are losing dominance.

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Bitcoin has lost the critical $90,000 level and is now hovering near the $86,000 area, a zone that is quickly becoming the last meaningful support in the current structure. The recent decline has unfolded with little resistance from buyers, as bullish participation has largely disappeared from the market. Momentum-driven demand has faded, spot buying remains weak, and rallies are consistently being sold. As a result, a growing number of analysts are openly shifting their outlook toward a bear market scenario.

According to a recent report by on-chain analyst Axel Adler, conditions beneath the surface reinforce this pessimistic view. Derivatives positioning remains firmly negative, indicating that short sellers continue to dominate short-term market dynamics.

At the same time, market sentiment metrics have fallen to levels historically associated with major capitulation phases. Fear is widespread, confidence is fragile, and risk appetite across crypto markets is clearly deteriorating.

The combination of negative futures positioning and extreme investor fear creates a challenging environment for Bitcoin. Rather than signaling an immediate bottom, these conditions suggest that selling pressure remains structurally embedded in the market.

Futures Positioning And Sentiment Signal Deep Stress

Adler explains that the Bitcoin Positioning Index provides a clear view of who controls the derivatives market. The indicator aggregates changes in open interest and funding rates to identify the dominant direction of futures positioning.

At present, the index sits at -4, firmly in negative territory. This reading corresponds to a bearish regime and aligns with an active downtrend signal. Visually, the chart is dominated by purple bars over the past four weeks, highlighting sustained pressure from short positions and a lack of bullish conviction in derivatives markets.

Negative positioning combined with falling prices confirms that bears remain in control of short-term market dynamics. According to Adler, a meaningful regime shift will only occur if the index returns above zero and the price consolidates above local resistance levels. Without that confirmation, downside risk remains elevated.

The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index reinforces this bearish backdrop. The index, which tracks market sentiment from extreme fear to extreme greed, has fallen deep into the extreme fear zone and well below the 25th percentile.

The 30-day SMA has dropped to 20, while the 90-day SMA sits near 32, signaling persistent sentiment deterioration since September. While extreme fear alone does not guarantee a reversal, its alignment with negative futures positioning suggests that selling pressure is structural rather than purely emotional.

Bitcoin Tests Critical Support As Downtrend Persists

The chart shows Bitcoin trading under sustained technical pressure after failing to reclaim higher levels. Price has decisively broken below the medium-term moving averages and is now consolidating around the $87,000–$88,000 zone, a level that previously acted as support during the mid-cycle advance. The rejection from the blue moving average signals that bullish momentum has weakened significantly, while the downward slope confirms a loss of trend strength.

More importantly, Bitcoin is now hovering just above the red long-term moving average, a level that historically acts as a key structural support during broader corrections. The recent bounce from the $85,000–$86,000 area suggests that buyers are still present, but the response lacks conviction. Volume remains muted compared to earlier distribution phases, indicating hesitation rather than aggressive accumulation.

Structurally, the sequence of lower highs since the $120,000 peak remains intact. Until Bitcoin can reclaim the $92,000–$95,000 range and hold above the declining mid-term average, downside risks persist. A clean loss of the long-term support could expose deeper retracement levels toward the low $80,000s.

In the short term, this price behavior reflects a market in repair mode. Bitcoin is no longer trending, but it has not yet shown the strength required to invalidate the corrective structure.

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Ethereum is trading below the $3,000 level as selling pressure continues to weigh on the broader crypto market. After weeks of unstable price action, ETH has failed to reclaim key psychological and technical levels, reinforcing a fragile market structure.

Sentiment remains decisively bearish, with fear and even apathy starting to dominate trader behavior. Volatility has compressed, participation has thinned, and many analysts are increasingly pointing toward a prolonged bear market scenario extending into 2026.

This lack of conviction is not limited to retail participants. According to data shared by Lookonchain, two large whales dumped a combined 14,000 ETH, worth approximately $40.82 million, in just the past two hours. Such aggressive selling during already weak conditions adds pressure to an asset that is struggling to attract sustained demand.

While isolated whale activity does not define the broader trend on its own, timing matters. Large distributions during periods of low liquidity often amplify downside moves and reinforce negative sentiment across the market.

Ethereum Whale Selling Meets Long-Term Conviction

Arkham data shared by Lookonchain reveals fresh evidence of large-scale selling as Ethereum trades under sustained pressure. Address 0x2802 sold 10,000 ETH, worth approximately $29.16 million, at an average price of $2,915.5 through decentralized exchanges.

Shortly after, another whale, 0x4c0A, offloaded 4,000 ETH, valued at around $11.66 million, distributing the sale across multiple centralized venues, including OKX, Binance, KuCoin, and Gate. The timing and coordination of these moves reinforce the current bearish tone, particularly as liquidity remains thin and broader market sentiment leans defensive.

In the short term, such activity adds to downside pressure and fuels uncertainty among smaller investors, who often interpret whale selling as a signal of deeper weakness ahead. However, price action and sentiment do not tell the full story. Despite the drawdown, Ethereum’s fundamentals continue to strengthen at a pace rarely seen before. Institutional adoption is accelerating, not slowing.

Most notably, JP Morgan recently announced the use of Ethereum to launch its first tokenized money-market fund, a milestone that underscores growing confidence in Ethereum as a settlement and financial infrastructure layer. While markets may remain bearish in the near term, the divergence between price sentiment and fundamental progress is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

Ethereum Price Struggles to Hold Key Weekly Support

Ethereum continues to trade under pressure on the weekly chart, with price now sitting around $2,950 after a sharp rejection from the $3,200–$3,300 region. This area previously acted as a key pivot zone and has now clearly flipped into resistance. The inability to reclaim it confirms that sellers remain in control of the medium-term structure.

From a trend perspective, ETH is consolidating around its 200-week moving average (red line), a historically important level that often determines whether corrections remain cyclical or evolve into deeper bearish phases. So far, this moving average is acting as dynamic support, preventing a more aggressive breakdown. However, momentum remains weak, and upside follow-through is limited.

The 50-week and 100-week moving averages (blue and green lines) are beginning to flatten and converge, reflecting indecision and reduced trend strength. Volume also remains muted compared to prior expansion phases, suggesting that neither strong accumulation nor capitulation is taking place at current levels.

Structurally, ETH remains in a wide consolidation range between $2,500 and $3,300. A weekly close below the $2,800–$2,900 area would expose downside toward the lower end of that range. Conversely, reclaiming $3,300 is required to reestablish bullish momentum. Until then, Ethereum remains technically fragile despite its long-term fundamentals.

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XRP has slipped below the $2 level, a psychologically important threshold, as broader market conditions continue to deteriorate and selling pressure weighs on risk assets. While Bitcoin dominates liquidity and investor attention, altcoins are struggling to attract sustained demand, and XRP is increasingly reflecting this imbalance.

According to a CryptoQuant report by Darkfost, the weakness in XRP is not an isolated event but part of a broader contraction across the altcoin market. Whether on spot markets or in derivatives, trading activity has been shrinking significantly over recent months. Liquidity is gradually drying up, signaling a clear retreat from speculative positioning as investors reduce exposure to higher-risk assets.

This trend is especially visible in XRP’s derivatives data. The Taker Buy Volume on Binance, which tracks aggressive buy orders in futures markets, has collapsed to its lowest levels of the year. After peaking above $5.8 billion in July, this metric has fallen to roughly $250 million, representing a sharp 95.7% decline.

Such a dramatic contraction highlights the near-total evaporation of buying pressure and underscores the lack of conviction among traders.

XRP Liquidity Compression Signals Downside Risk

According to Darkfost, the broader market context is a major factor amplifying XRP’s current weakness. Liquidations have been accumulating across crypto markets, confidence remains fragile, and many participants are still psychologically impacted by the October 10 event. This lingering stress has reduced risk tolerance, particularly among short-term traders who typically provide liquidity during corrective phases.

Beyond sentiment, altcoins are facing a clear structural headwind. Bitcoin continues to absorb the majority of available capital, both in spot and derivatives markets. As BTC dominance remains elevated, liquidity that would normally rotate into altcoins during recoveries is instead staying concentrated in Bitcoin. This leaves very limited room for a sustained rebound across the broader altcoin market, including XRP.

Within this environment, the sharp collapse in XRP’s Taker Buy Volume is not surprising. The signal becomes even more relevant given that it is unfolding on Binance, which still accounts for the largest share of global XRP trading activity. A sustained drop in aggressive buying on the dominant exchange highlights the depth of demand erosion.

At the same time, the Taker Buy Sell Ratio has remained negative for most of the period, confirming that sellers continue to dominate XRP’s derivatives market. Historically, such severe volume compression can precede volatility expansions.

However, in the current setup, the lack of meaningful buying pressure and persistent bearish positioning suggests downside risks remain elevated. Even ETF-related optimism has failed to offset these structural weaknesses.

XRP Price Struggles Below Key Moving Averages

XRP price action on the 3-day chart reflects a clear loss of bullish structure and growing downside pressure. After peaking above the $3.40–$3.60 zone earlier in the year, XRP has formed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming a medium-term downtrend. The recent breakdown below the psychological $2.00 level is particularly significant, as this zone previously acted as both support and consolidation.

From a technical perspective, XRP is now trading below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, both of which have started to slope downward. This alignment reinforces bearish momentum and suggests that rallies are being sold rather than accumulated. The 200-day moving average, currently near the $1.70–$1.80 area, represents the next major structural support. A sustained move toward this level would not be surprising if selling pressure persists.

Volume dynamics further confirm weakness. Since the August high, volume has steadily declined, indicating fading participation and weak dip-buying interest. The sharp volatility spike in October was followed by distribution rather than continuation, often a sign of a local market top.

As long as XRP remains below $2.00 and fails to reclaim the declining moving averages, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. For any meaningful trend reversal, XRP would need to regain $2.30–$2.50 with expanding volume, signaling renewed demand rather than short-term relief rallies.

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Bitcoin has retraced to the $85,000 level, a critical support zone that bulls must defend to prevent a deeper breakdown. After failing to reclaim higher levels, price action has slowed and volatility has compressed, reinforcing a market environment dominated by apathy and fear.

Sentiment across the crypto space has deteriorated sharply, with a growing number of analysts openly discussing the possibility of a prolonged bear market extending into next year. In this context, understanding who is actually selling becomes far more important than the price move itself.

According to a recent CryptoQuant report, Bitcoin’s pullback from the ~$88.2K region toward ~$85K provides a clean on-chain read of market behavior beneath the surface. Exchange inflow data segmented by Short-Term Holders (STH) and Long-Term Holders (LTH) shows that the decline was not driven by structural distribution from long-term investors.

Historically, bear markets accelerate when long-term holders begin distributing supply. The absence of that behavior suggests the current drawdown reflects positioning adjustments and risk reduction rather than a collapse in long-term conviction. As Bitcoin tests $85K, the market is not only evaluating price support levels.

Short-Term Profit-Taking, Not Structural Distribution

The CryptoQuant report by Crazzyblockk provides a precise breakdown of who actually drove Bitcoin’s recent pullback. On December 15, when BTC traded near the $88.2K level, Short-Term Holders sent approximately 24.7K BTC to exchanges.

Crucially, 86.8% of this supply was realized in profit, while only 13.2% was sold at a loss. In dollar terms, profitable STH inflows exceeded $1.89 billion, vastly outweighing loss-driven selling. This profile clearly indicates that sellers were primarily near-term buyers exiting from strength, rather than panicked participants capitulating under stress.

As the price moved lower on December 16 toward the $86K area, total STH inflows dropped sharply to just 3.9K BTC. Although this smaller flow was realized at a loss, its limited size signals exhaustion rather than an acceleration of selling pressure. While the percentage of loss realization increased, the absolute volume did not—an important nuance often overlooked in surface-level market analysis.

Long-Term Holder behavior reinforces this constructive interpretation. Across both days, LTH inflows remained muted, falling from roughly 326 BTC to just 50 BTC. There is no sign of capitulation or meaningful distribution from this cohort. Overall, the data shows a market cooling through short-term profit-taking, not breaking through structural sell pressure.

Bitcoin Weekly Price Structure and Key Support Dynamics

Bitcoin has retraced sharply from its cycle highs and is now consolidating around the $85K–$88K zone. This area is technically significant. Price is currently interacting with the rising 100-week moving average, which has acted as dynamic support throughout the broader uptrend since 2023. So far, buyers are attempting to defend this level, preventing a deeper weekly close below it.

Structurally, the market has shifted from strong impulsive expansion into a corrective phase. The loss of the 50-week moving average earlier in the pullback signaled a transition from momentum-driven price discovery to consolidation and mean reversion. However, the longer-term trend remains intact as long as Bitcoin holds above the 200-week moving average, currently well below the price.

Volume has declined during the retracement, suggesting that selling pressure is not accelerating aggressively. This supports the view that the move is corrective rather than distributive. From a risk perspective, failure to hold the $85K region would open the door to a deeper retrace toward the low-$70K range.

Conversely, reclaiming the $90K–$92K zone would be required to restore bullish structure and momentum on the weekly timeframe.

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Ethereum is struggling to regain traction as it continues to trade below the critical $3,200 level, weighed down by persistent selling pressure and growing macro uncertainty. Market sentiment has deteriorated notably in recent weeks, with many analysts increasingly calling for a broader bear market phase.

From a structural perspective, ETH remains below several key technical levels that previously acted as support, reinforcing the perception that downside risks are still present and that bullish momentum remains fragile.

Beyond price action, on-chain data is beginning to confirm this cautious outlook. According to a CryptoQuant report by CryptoOnchain, Ethereum’s network activity has contracted sharply, signaling a meaningful decline in underlying demand. The 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Active Addresses has fallen to 327,000, marking the lowest reading since May 2025.

This represents a significant pullback from earlier cycle highs and suggests that fewer users are actively interacting with the Ethereum network.

Historically, sustained bullish trends in ETH have been supported by expanding network usage and rising participation. The current decline in active addresses indicates a reduction in network utility, often associated with cooling investor interest and the exit of short-term participants.

Ethereum Network Activity Signals Cooling Demand

According to the CryptoQuant report, the current decline in Ethereum’s Active Addresses represents a sharp pullback from the peak of roughly 483,000 addresses recorded in August. Since that high, network participation has steadily weakened, highlighting a clear loss of momentum in on-chain activity.

This contraction has closely mirrored Ethereum’s market performance over the same period. As active addresses declined, ETH’s price corrected significantly, falling from a cycle high near $4,800 to the current $3,100 area.

The simultaneous drop in both price and network activity is a critical signal. It suggests a reduction in demand for block space and points to a potential exit of retail traders or short-term participants who typically drive spikes in transaction activity during strong bullish phases. When fewer users interact with the network, it often reflects lower speculative interest and diminished transactional demand.

In a healthy and sustainable bull market, rising prices are usually accompanied by expanding network usage, with active addresses trending higher as adoption and participation grow. The current divergence from that pattern indicates a cooling ecosystem rather than an acceleration phase.

For Ethereum to establish a durable price reversal, this metric will be essential to watch. A sustained recovery in Active Addresses would be one of the clearest early signals that demand is returning and that the network is regaining fundamental strength.

Ethereum Weekly Price Structure Shows Critical Inflection Zone

Ethereum’s weekly chart highlights a market caught between long-term structural support and unresolved downside pressure. After peaking near the $4,800–$5,000 region earlier in the cycle, ETH entered a prolonged corrective phase that drove price sharply lower. The subsequent rebound from the $1,500–$1,600 lows marked a clear recovery, but the rally has so far failed to transition into a sustained bullish trend.

Currently, ETH is trading near the $3,150 level, hovering around a key confluence zone. Price is interacting with the 100-week and 200-week moving averages, which historically act as pivotal trend-defining levels. While ETH has managed to reclaim the longer-term moving averages, it continues to struggle with follow-through above them, signaling hesitation from buyers at higher prices.

The structure since mid-2024 resembles a broad consolidation rather than a decisive breakout. Each rally attempt toward the $4,000–$4,500 range has been met with strong selling pressure, producing lower highs on the weekly timeframe. Volume has also declined compared to previous impulsive advances, suggesting weaker conviction behind recent rebounds.

From a structural perspective, holding above the $2,800–$3,000 region remains critical. As long as this zone holds, ETH maintains a constructive higher-low relative to the 2022 bottom. However, failure to build acceptance above the moving averages keeps Ethereum vulnerable to extended consolidation or another corrective leg before a clearer trend emerges.

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Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $90,000 level, failing to reclaim higher ground as bulls focus on defending current demand zones. After a sharp correction from recent highs, price action has entered a consolidation phase that, on the surface, appears relatively calm. Volatility has compressed, and short-term price movements suggest a market pausing rather than decisively breaking down. However, this apparent stability may be misleading.

According to a CryptoQuant report from XWIN Research Japan, on-chain data is signaling growing structural risk beneath the surface. The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), a metric that tracks the movement of Bitcoin between exchanges and serves as a proxy for internal market liquidity, has turned red.

In such environments, price moves tend to be sharper and less orderly once direction is established. While reduced exchange balances can limit immediate selling pressure, they also amplify the impact of sudden demand or forced liquidations.

This shift indicates a clear slowdown in capital circulation across trading venues, suggesting that liquidity conditions are deteriorating.

Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse Signals Structural Fragility

The report explains that the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) measures how actively Bitcoin moves from one exchange to another, serving as a proxy for internal market liquidity and capital circulation. When IFP is elevated, capital rotates efficiently across venues, arbitrage opportunities are quickly absorbed, and liquidity providers keep order books deep.

In those conditions, price discovery is smoother, and volatility tends to remain contained. By contrast, when IFP declines, the market’s internal “blood flow” weakens. Capital becomes static, liquidity fragments, and prices grow increasingly sensitive to relatively small trades.

This deterioration in liquidity is unfolding alongside historically low exchange balances. While reduced sellable supply can initially act as price support, it also creates thinner order books. Once price begins to move decisively in either direction, slippage increases and volatility accelerates.

With leverage still elevated across derivatives markets, instability becomes driven less by directional conviction and more by the magnitude of forced reactions.

Historically, periods when IFP turned red produced abrupt corrections and sharp price swings, not clean trends. The central risk today is therefore not aggressive distribution, but structural fragility. Until inter-exchange liquidity improves, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to sudden, outsized moves, making leveraged positioning particularly risky in the current market structure.

Bitcoin Price Consolidates Below Key Moving Averages

The 4-hour Bitcoin chart highlights a market locked in consolidation after a sharp corrective move. Following the aggressive sell-off in late November, BTC found a local bottom near the $82,000–$83,000 zone, where strong demand stepped in and triggered a rebound. However, that recovery quickly lost momentum, and price is now ranging below the descending cluster of moving averages.

Bitcoin is currently trading around the $89,000–$90,000 level, repeatedly failing to reclaim the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour timeframe. The 50 and 100 moving averages are also sloping downward, acting as dynamic resistance and reinforcing the short-term bearish structure. Each attempt to push higher has been met with selling pressure, suggesting that bulls lack conviction at current levels.

Volume has noticeably contracted during this consolidation phase, indicating reduced participation and indecision among traders. This typically precedes a volatility expansion, especially when price compresses beneath major resistance. Structurally, BTC remains vulnerable as long as it trades below the $92,000–$94,000 zone, which previously acted as support and now caps upside attempts.

On the downside, the $87,000–$88,000 range is emerging as immediate support. A decisive breakdown below this area could reopen the path toward the $84,000 region. Until a clear breakout occurs, Bitcoin remains in a fragile balance between distribution and base-building.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum is struggling to regain momentum after failing to reclaim the $3,200 level, keeping the market in a fragile equilibrium. Despite several recovery attempts, price action suggests that bulls are now focused less on pushing higher and more on defending current demand zones. This hesitation reflects broader uncertainty across the crypto market, where traders remain cautious amid tightening liquidity and elevated macro risk.

However, beneath the surface, on-chain activity is beginning to tell a more nuanced story. According to Lookonchain, data sourced from Arkham reveals that a major market participant has re-entered aggressively. The so-called 66kETHBorrow Whale, who previously accumulated 489,696 ETH worth roughly $1.5 billion, has started buying Ethereum again as prices declined.

This behavior stands out because it occurred during weakness rather than strength, a pattern typically associated with strategic accumulation rather than short-term speculation.

Whale activity during drawdowns often signals confidence in higher prices over a longer time horizon, even when sentiment remains fragile. While Ethereum still faces technical resistance overhead, the return of large buyers suggests that demand is weak but has not disappeared.

Whale Accumulation Raises Questions Amid Ethereum Weakness

Lookonchain data provides further insight into the recent actions of the 66kETHBorrow whale, highlighting a sequence that has drawn significant attention from the market. Over the past eight hours, the whale borrowed approximately $85 million in USDT from Aave and transferred the funds to Binance.

Shortly after, he withdrew 38,576 ETH, valued at roughly $119.3 million, from the exchange. This rapid movement of capital during a market pullback has raised questions among smaller investors, many of whom are wondering whether this whale is acting on information or conviction that is not yet reflected in price.

Such behavior is often interpreted as deliberate accumulation, particularly when ETH is withdrawn from exchanges rather than left on trading platforms. Exchange outflows generally reduce immediate sell-side liquidity, reinforcing the perception of long-term positioning. However, it is critical to acknowledge the limits of on-chain visibility. These transactions represent only the wallets that have been publicly identified and tracked.

There is no certainty that this whale’s exposure is fully transparent. He could be holding hedges, short positions, or additional long exposure through other wallets, centralized exchanges, or derivatives markets that are not visible on-chain. As a result, while the activity suggests confidence, it should not be interpreted as definitive directional confirmation.

ETH Price Struggles Below Key Moving Averages

Ethereum is currently trading near the $3,150–$3,200 zone after a modest rebound, but the broader technical structure remains fragile. On the daily chart, ETH continues to trade below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, both of which are now acting as dynamic resistance. The recent bounce stalled near the declining 50-day MA, highlighting the lack of strong follow-through from buyers.

The 200-day moving average, positioned closer to the $3,500 area, remains well above current price levels. This reinforces that Ethereum is still in a corrective phase within a larger macro uptrend. As long as price remains below this long-term trend indicator, upside attempts are likely to face selling pressure from both swing traders and systematic strategies.

Price action over the past weeks shows a series of lower highs following the rejection near $4,000 in October, confirming a short-term bearish market structure. However, ETH has so far defended the $2,800–$2,900 support region, suggesting that buyers are still active at lower levels.

For Ethereum to shift momentum decisively, bulls must reclaim and hold above the $3,300–$3,400 range. Failure to do so keeps downside risks open, with a potential retest of prior demand zones if broader market sentiment deteriorates.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $90,000 level, failing to reclaim key resistance as bulls attempt to defend current demand zones. Price action reflects a market under pressure, with momentum fading after a prolonged correction. From its all-time high, Bitcoin has now retraced roughly 30%, placing the asset firmly in a corrective phase where uncertainty and caution dominate trading behavior.

According to a report from Axel Adler, on-chain data confirms that market stress is no longer limited to price alone. Two key indicators—the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) and the P/L Block—are signaling broad loss realization among participants and a deterioration in overall market sentiment.

These metrics provide insight into the behavior of short-term holders, who are often the most sensitive to price swings and macro uncertainty. Together, these signals suggest that Bitcoin remains in a fragile state, where confidence has weakened, and recovery attempts face increasing resistance.

STH SOPR and P/L Block Confirm Capitulation Pressure

Adler explains that the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) measures whether coins held for less than 155 days are being sold at a profit or a loss. When the indicator falls below one, it signals that recent buyers are realizing losses.

Currently, the 7-day moving average of STH SOPR has slipped into the red zone, with a reading near 0.99. This confirms that short-term holders are, on average, selling Bitcoin below their acquisition price—a behavior typically associated with heightened stress and emotional selling.

Historically, similar SOPR conditions have marked local capitulation phases, when selling pressure peaks and weaker hands exit the market. As long as the SOPR 7-day average remains below one, short-term participants stay in “stress mode.”

Adler notes that a meaningful improvement would require a sustained move back above one on a daily close, signaling that sellers have exhausted supply and buyers are once again absorbing sell-side pressure.

Complementing this signal, the P/L Block indicator tracks the aggregated profit and loss state of market participants. The current red block reflects loss dominance, with a P/L Score of minus three—classified as pronounced stress.

With Bitcoin down 30% from its all-time high and 30-day returns negative, both indicators align, reinforcing a clear picture of capitulation among short-term holders.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Weekly Structure Remains Critical

The weekly chart shows Bitcoin trading around the $89,900 level after a sharp rejection from the $120,000–$125,000 region. Price has retraced aggressively but is now attempting to stabilize above the rising 200-week moving average (green), a level that has historically defined long-term trend validity. So far, this area is acting as dynamic support, suggesting that buyers are defending higher-cycle structure despite broader market weakness.

However, Bitcoin remains below the 50-week moving average (blue), which is now sloping downward. This configuration reflects a loss of medium-term momentum and confirms that the market is still in a corrective phase rather than a resumed uptrend.

The 100-week moving average (red) continues to rise well below price, reinforcing that the broader macro trend remains intact, but also highlighting how much excess was built during the prior rally.

Volume has declined during the recent consolidation, signaling indecision rather than aggressive accumulation. This typically precedes a volatility expansion. From a structural perspective, holding above the $85,000–$88,000 zone is critical. A sustained breakdown below the 200-week MA would increase the probability of a deeper retracement toward the $75,000–$80,000 region.

Conversely, reclaiming the 50-week MA near $95,000 would be an early signal that downside pressure is fading. Until then, Bitcoin remains range-bound, with long-term support holding but momentum still fragile.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum is trading above the $3,200 level as bulls attempt to push the price back toward higher resistance zones, but market sentiment remains fragile. Fear and uncertainty continue to dominate as several analysts warn that the broader trend may still point toward a potential bear market. Yet, beneath the volatile price action, key on-chain data is revealing a development that could shape Ethereum’s next major phase.

According to a new report from CryptoQuant, a historic signal tied to the realized price of whales holding more than 100,000 ETH has emerged once again. This metric, which tracks the average cost basis of the largest holders, has only been tested a handful of times over the past five years.

Each instance occurred during decisive turning points in Ethereum’s macro trend. Whenever ETH approached or traded near this realized price, it signaled either the exhaustion of a deep downtrend or the beginning of a strong recovery phase.

Today, Ethereum is once again hovering near this critical threshold. With analysts divided and sentiment weakening, the whale realized price has become one of the most important indicators to monitor. Whether ETH bounces or breaks here may determine the direction of the next major trend cycle.

Whale Realized Price as a Cycle-Defining Threshold

The CryptoQuant report highlights the significance of Ethereum’s proximity to the realized price of whales holding at least 100,000 ETH. According to the analysis, ETH has traded very close to this level only four times in the last five years.

Two of those instances occurred during the capitulation phase of the 2022 bear market, when selling pressure peaked, and long-term confidence was severely tested. The other two have happened this year, underscoring how unusual and cycle-defining the current environment has become.

What makes this metric particularly important is its historical reliability. In the past five years, Ethereum has never traded below the realized price of these mega-whales. This level has consistently acted as a structural floor, signaling areas where the largest and most sophisticated holders refuse to sell at a loss. Their behavior often marks moments of deep undervaluation or macro exhaustion within the market.

Today, that realized price sits near the $2,500 range, placing Ethereum within striking distance of a level that has repeatedly separated long-term accumulation zones from full-scale trend reversals. If ETH holds above this threshold, it would reinforce the idea that large holders still see long-term value—despite fear dominating broader market sentiment.

Ethereum Attempts Recovery but Faces Major Overhead Barriers

Ethereum’s daily chart shows a market attempting recovery, yet still constrained by significant structural resistance. After rebounding from the sub-$2,900 zone, ETH has reclaimed the $3,200 level and is currently trading near $3,238. While this bounce reflects short-term strength, the broader trend remains fragile.

The price is encountering the 50-day moving average, which has acted as dynamic resistance throughout the decline from September’s peak. ETH briefly pierced above it but failed to secure a strong close, signaling hesitation from buyers.

The 100-day and 200-day moving averages remain well above the current price, reinforcing that Ethereum is still operating beneath major trend markers. These moving averages are likely to form an overhead cluster of resistance between $3,400 and $3,600—an area where sellers previously overwhelmed bullish attempts.

Structurally, ETH is forming a potential higher low, but it has not yet produced a higher high—an essential condition for confirming a trend reversal. A clean breakout above $3,350 would strengthen bullish momentum. Conversely, losing $3,150 risks reopening a path toward $3,000 and potentially retesting deeper support levels.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has failed to reclaim higher prices, reinforcing the growing belief that the market may be entering a deeper bearish phase. After multiple attempts to push above key resistance levels, BTC continues to trade sideways with declining momentum, reflecting a clear shift in investor sentiment. Fear is rising across the market, and price action has yet to show any convincing signs of recovery.

According to new data shared by Axel Adler, several structural on-chain and market indicators now support a continuation of bearish conditions in the months ahead. Adler’s analysis points to weakening demand, persistent sell pressure, and deteriorating liquidity—factors that historically precede prolonged corrective periods.

While Bitcoin has held above critical support zones, its inability to establish higher highs or sustain rebounds suggests that buyers remain cautious and largely defensive.

Moreover, broader market conditions show similar fragility, with derivatives positioning, stablecoin flows, and long-term holder behavior all signaling reduced conviction. This confluence of factors strengthens the bearish thesis and implies that volatility could intensify before the market finds a meaningful bottom.

Bitcoin MVRV Spread Signals a Deep Bear Phase

Adler’s analysis highlights one of the clearest structural indicators pointing toward sustained bearish conditions: the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Bull vs. Bear Market model. Specifically, he notes that the 30-day to 365-day MVRV spread is deeply negative and continues to deteriorate.

This spread measures the difference in profitability between short-term and long-term holders, and when the short-term cohort is underperforming significantly, it traditionally signals risk aversion, exhaustion, and weakening demand.

A crossover—when the 30-day MVRV rises above the 365-day metric—has historically marked the transition from bear markets into new bullish phases. However, Adler stresses that such a crossover does not appear imminent under current conditions. The spread remains far below the threshold required for a structural reversal, reinforcing the view that Bitcoin is still entrenched in a deep bear phase within this model’s framework.

Cycle analogs further support this interpretation. Reviewing past market cycles, Adler estimates that the next likely window for a meaningful crossover sits in the second half of 2026. This implies that even if short-term rallies occur, they are more likely to be counter-trend bounces rather than the early stages of a sustainable bull market. Until the MVRV structure improves, broader sentiment may remain decisively bearish.

Price Struggles to Recover Momentum

Bitcoin continues to move sideways, reflecting a market that remains indecisive and structurally weak. The chart shows BTC trading near $92,000 after its sharp decline from the $120,000 region, with recent candles forming a tight consolidation range. This behavior typically signals a temporary stabilization phase rather than a confirmed reversal, especially given the broader bearish context highlighted by on-chain and macro indicators.

The 50-day moving average sits well above the current price, acting as dynamic resistance and indicating that short-term momentum remains firmly bearish. Likewise, the 100-day and 200-day moving averages trend downward, creating a compression zone that BTC has yet to challenge. Until Bitcoin can reclaim these levels with conviction, rallies may continue to be faded by sellers.

Despite the small rebound from sub-$90,000 levels, buying activity remains muted compared to the heavy sell volume that drove the initial breakdown. This suggests that demand is insufficient to absorb higher-timeframe selling pressure.

Structurally, Bitcoin is forming lower highs and lower lows across the daily timeframe, reinforcing a downtrend. A decisive break below $90,000 would expose deeper liquidity zones near $86,000–$84,000. Conversely, reclaiming $96,000 would be the first sign of strength—but current price action shows no such momentum yet.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

XRP has been under clear pressure in recent sessions, sliding toward its lowest price of the year as the broader crypto market continues to absorb heavy selling. Sentiment remains fragile, and many traders have shifted into defensive positioning while awaiting clearer macro signals.

According to a new report from CryptoQuant, however, the underlying picture is more complex than the price chart suggests. Despite the short-term decline, XRP whales are becoming increasingly active, showing no hesitation in trading and accumulating even as retail participation weakens.

This divergence between whale behavior and market sentiment is noteworthy. Historically, XRP’s most significant recoveries have begun during phases of deep pessimism, when large holders quietly build exposure rather than chase rallies.

The latest data confirms this pattern: while price approaches yearly lows, whale-driven transaction volume has risen, signaling that high-value wallets are repositioning rather than exiting.

Whale Accumulation and CVD Shift Signal a Potential XRP Bottom

The CryptoQuant report highlights that the recent surge in whale activity follows a pattern often observed during market bottoming phases. Large holders rarely accumulate aggressively during strong uptrends; instead, they tend to build positions quietly during periods of weakness, when sentiment is poor, and prices are depressed.

Their willingness to buy in the current environment—while XRP trades near yearly lows—suggests strategic positioning rather than speculative momentum chasing.

This behavior is typically interpreted as a pre-rally signal. When whales accumulate into weakness, it indicates confidence that current prices offer value and that the downside may be limited. Historically, such phases have preceded meaningful upside moves in XRP, as whale accumulation often absorbs available sell pressure and stabilizes market structure.

Supporting this view, the report also points to a notable shift in the XRP Spot Taker CVD, which has turned taker-buy dominant. This means that aggressive buyers are now driving more of the executed volume, reflecting strengthening demand in real time. A taker-buy dominant CVD often emerges before sustained rallies, as it highlights increasing willingness among market participants to buy at the ask rather than wait for dips.

Together, rising whale accumulation and a bullish CVD trend paint an increasingly constructive backdrop for XRP’s medium-term outlook.

Price Analysis: Testing Yearly Lows as Structure Weakens

XRP continues to trade near its yearly lows, with the chart showing a clear deterioration in trend structure. Price remains pinned below all major moving averages—the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day—indicating that bullish momentum has not yet returned. The persistent rejection at the 50-day moving average throughout November and December highlights the strength of overhead resistance and the absence of sustained buying pressure from the broader market.

The $2.00 region, now acting as a key horizontal support, has been tested multiple times over the past month. Each retest shows reduced volatility, suggesting that sellers are no longer driving aggressive breakdown attempts. But demand remains too weak to generate a meaningful rebound. A decisive loss of this level could open the door toward the $1.80–$1.90 support zone. XRP previously consolidated during the early stages of the 2025 rally.

Volume also confirms the broader downtrend. Selling spikes stand out noticeably, whereas buy-side volume remains muted. This imbalance reinforces the prevailing bearish structure, even as whale accumulation begins to appear on-chain.

For XRP to shift out of this downtrend, bulls must reclaim the 50-day moving average and produce higher lows. Until then, the chart signals continued caution. Whale activity must begin translating into visible spot demand, or the risk skews to the downside.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin enters the week trapped in a tight consolidation range, reflecting a market caught between caution and expectation. Price action has stalled as traders wait for clearer direction after the recent Federal Reserve decision and ongoing macro uncertainty.

Yet beneath the surface, whale activity tells a very different story. According to Lookonchain, one of the most notable market participants—the famous BitcoinOG, known for accurately shorting the market during the sharp October 10 crash—is now aggressively expanding his long exposure across multiple assets.

His current positioning is substantial: 150,466 ETH valued at approximately $491 million, 1,000 BTC worth $92.6 million, and 212,907 SOL totaling $27.8 million. Rather than scaling out or reducing risk during this period of market hesitation, he continues to build, signaling strong conviction in a broader recovery across major cryptocurrencies.

While retail traders and smaller speculators wait for confirmation, this whale is positioning early, anticipating a potential shift in momentum. His actions add a new layer of intrigue to Bitcoin’s consolidation, raising the question of whether smart money is preparing for a trend reversal while the rest of the market hesitates.

Whale Positioning and Strategic Bids Ahead

Lookonchain reports, citing Hypurrscan data, that this whale isn’t just holding an already massive multi-asset long position—he is strategically preparing to increase exposure even further. According to the data, he has placed limit orders to add an additional 40,000 ETH in the $3,030–$3,258 price range and 50,000 SOL at $138.6. These levels are positioned just below current market prices, suggesting he expects—or is at least prepared for—a deeper pullback before the next major move.

This behavior is notable because it reflects a deliberate accumulation strategy rather than impulsive buying. By setting large bids at key support zones, he aims to capture liquidity during periods of volatility, effectively using market weakness to scale into long-term positions. Such an approach is typical of sophisticated traders who rely on structured entries rather than reacting to short-term fluctuations.

The scale of these pending orders also indicates that his conviction extends beyond his already massive exposure. If filled, these additions would significantly increase his leverage in the broader crypto market, particularly in Ethereum and Solana. For observers, this raises an important question: is this smart money positioning ahead of a potential macro-driven rebound, or is it a high-risk bet into an uncertain environment?

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Testing Support, Lacking Momentum

Bitcoin’s latest price action on the 3-day timeframe shows a market stuck between recovery attempts and lingering downside pressure. After the sharp November sell-off, BTC stabilized above the $90,000 zone, which is now acting as a short-term support area. Price briefly dipped below this level but was quickly bought back, suggesting that buyers are still defending the region. However, the rebound remains shallow, and the structure lacks the strong momentum typically seen during bullish reversals.

The chart shows BTC trading below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, both of which have now turned downward. This alignment reflects a shift toward medium-term bearish conditions. The 200-day moving average currently sits below the price and has become the most important dynamic support; BTC is hovering directly above it. Historically, when Bitcoin holds the 200-day MA after a major correction, a consolidation phase often follows before a decisive move.

Volume also reinforces the uncertainty. Despite multiple attempts to push higher, buying volume remains muted compared to previous rallies, indicating limited conviction from bulls. Until BTC breaks convincingly above the 50-day MA region near $100K, the market will likely remain in a cautious, range-bound state.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum has retraced below the $3,200 level following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, a move that initially boosted risk assets but quickly shifted market sentiment into uncertainty. While the broader macro backdrop now leans toward looser monetary conditions, Ethereum’s reaction suggests that traders remain cautious, especially after the sharp rally from the $2,800 region earlier this month.

According to fresh data from CryptoQuant, Binance’s Ethereum Estimated Leverage Ratio has climbed to an all-time high of nearly 0.579. This signals that the ETH market has entered a highly sensitive and potentially unstable phase, as open leveraged positions have grown faster than the underlying spot holdings on the exchange. Such extreme leverage typically reflects heightened risk appetite—and often precedes periods of sharp volatility.

This dynamic implies that a large portion of Ethereum’s recent price action has been driven not by organic demand, but by leveraged speculation. With funding structures stretched and traders aggressively positioning for upside, even a modest price swing could trigger a cascade of liquidations, amplifying market movements in either direction. As Ethereum hovers near key support, the combination of elevated leverage and post-FED uncertainty sets the stage for a volatile and decisive period ahead.

Ethereum’s Leverage Structure Signals Growing Fragility

Arab Chain explains that Ethereum’s historically high leverage ratio indicates a structural imbalance in the market. When the volume of open contracts funded by leverage grows faster than the actual spot ETH held on the platform, the entire ecosystem becomes more sensitive to abrupt volatility.

In such conditions, traders face a heightened risk of liquidation from even moderate price swings—whether the move is upward or downward. Historically, peaks in this indicator have aligned with periods of intense price pressure, as excessive leverage magnifies the market’s reaction to relatively small shifts in demand or sentiment.

At the same time, Ethereum is currently trading near $3,300, creating a concerning confluence: rising prices supported not by strong inflows or genuine spot demand, but by leverage-driven speculation. This type of rally is inherently unstable. If leverage continues climbing at these extreme levels, the market becomes increasingly vulnerable to a sharp liquidation-driven sell-off should prices pull back.

However, there is an alternative path. If ETH’s price continues to build momentum while the leverage ratio cools slightly, the market could regain a healthier structure—providing a more durable foundation for a sustained upward trend. For now, the estimated leverage ratio remains one of the most critical indicators for evaluating Ethereum’s short-term direction.

ETH Price Action Details

Ethereum’s latest rejection near the $3,350–$3,400 zone highlights the challenges bulls face as the broader trend remains pressured. The chart shows ETH pulling back toward the $3,200 area after a sharp attempt to break above the 100-day moving average (red line). This level continues to act as a major dynamic resistance, repeatedly capping upside momentum throughout November and December.

Despite the recent recovery from sub-$2,900 lows, ETH has not yet reclaimed the 50-day moving average (blue line) with conviction. The inability to close decisively above it reinforces the idea that this bounce remains corrective rather than impulsive. Meanwhile, volume on the latest push upward has been modest, suggesting that buyers are not entering aggressively at these levels.

On the downside, the $3,050–$3,100 region is emerging as short-term support. A daily close below this zone could open a path back toward $2,900, especially if risk sentiment deteriorates post-FOMC. Conversely, reclaiming and holding above $3,350 would be the first sign of renewed bullish strength, potentially targeting $3,550 next.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has retraced below the $91,000 level following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, a move that initially generated volatility across risk assets. While the market’s reaction has leaned bearish in the short term, on-chain data tells a very different story beneath the surface.

According to new insights from CryptoQuant, one of the most striking signals comes from the Exchange Inflow Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric on Binance, which has fallen sharply to 380, its lowest reading since September 2017.

CDD is one of the most important indicators for understanding long-term holder behavior because it assigns greater weight to older coins that have accumulated more “coin days.” Low values mean that the BTC moving onto exchanges is predominantly from short-term traders, not long-term holders.

In other words, veteran holders — the investors who historically move markets — are refusing to sell, even as Bitcoin trades near cycle highs.

Long-Term Holders Signal Strong Conviction

CryptoOnchain highlights that the significance of this CDD collapse becomes far clearer when viewed against Bitcoin’s current price context. With BTC trading near $89,600, the market is witnessing an unusually large divergence between price action and long-term holder behavior.

Historically, when Bitcoin approaches or surpasses all-time highs, long-held coins tend to move — triggering spikes in CDD as early investors and whales take profits. This pattern has repeated across past cycles, making elevated CDD a classic top-signal.

But this time, the exact opposite is happening. Instead of old coins entering exchanges, Exchange Inflow CDD is collapsing, indicating that almost none of the BTC being deposited onto Binance comes from long-term wallets. CryptoOnchain explains that this phenomenon strongly suggests that Smart Money and long-term whales have zero interest in selling at these levels, even after a multi-month correction.

This refusal to distribute supply removes a major source of overhead resistance and reflects a market dynamic driven increasingly by strong hands. The absence of long-term sell pressure reduces the available liquid supply, often preceding powerful bullish expansions. In simple terms, whales are signaling confidence — not caution — despite short-term volatility, reinforcing the narrative that Bitcoin may be preparing for its next major move.

Bitcoin Price Action: Testing Support Amid Weak Momentum

Bitcoin’s 3-day chart shows the market stabilizing just above the $90,000 level after last week’s sharp post-FED decline. Price remains compressed between the 200-day moving average (red line)—currently acting as primary support—and the 100-day moving average (green line) overhead, which continues to cap upward momentum. This creates a classic squeeze structure where BTC is holding its ground but struggling to reclaim lost trend levels.

The recent candle structure highlights a series of higher lows forming near the $89K–$90K region, suggesting buyers are defending this zone as a short-term floor. However, the rejection from the 100-day MA reinforces the broader bearish shift, as BTC remains below both key trend indicators and is yet to reclaim the breakdown level around $100K.

Volume also tells an important story: despite the bounce, buy-side conviction appears weak. The rebound has not been accompanied by a spike in demand, indicating that market participants are cautious following the rate cut and macro uncertainty.

If Bitcoin loses the 200-day MA, the next major support lies closer to $84K, which would open the door to a deeper retracement. Conversely, a decisive close above the 100-day MA near $98K would signal momentum returning to the bulls. For now, BTC remains in a fragile consolidation with limited directional strength.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum has retraced to the $3,160 level following the highly anticipated FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points. While rate cuts typically support risk assets, Jerome Powell’s comments added a new layer of uncertainty to the market.

By openly acknowledging the risks of weaker growth paired with persistent inflation, Powell introduced the possibility of stagflation—a scenario that historically challenges both equities and crypto. As a result, sentiment across the market remains fragile, and investors are struggling to interpret what this macro shift could mean for Ethereum’s next move.

Despite the volatility surrounding the decision, one major whale continues to act with conviction. According to Lookonchain, the Bitcoin OG who famously shorted the market during the October 10 crash is once again doubling down on his bullish Ethereum position.

Instead of taking profits or reducing exposure after the recent rally, he has continued accumulating aggressively, signaling a strong belief in ETH’s medium-term trajectory even as broader sentiment turns cautious.

Whale Position Ramps Up, But Risk Is Rising

According to Lookonchain, the whale’s position has now surged to 120,094 ETH, valued at approximately $392.5 million. With a liquidation price at $2,234.69, this has become one of the largest and most aggressive long positions currently tracked on-chain.

Such a massive allocation signals extreme conviction, especially coming from the same Bitcoin OG who successfully shorted the market during the October 10 crash. However, the scale of this bet also highlights how much risk is now concentrated in a single directional position.

The liquidation price is a key concern. At $2,234, it sits nearly $1,000 below current levels, but in highly leveraged environments—especially during macro uncertainty—prices can retrace violently. Ethereum has already shown a tendency toward sharp intraday moves, and with funding rates rising and leverage across the market stretching to historical highs, even a moderate correction could trigger cascading liquidations.

If ETH experiences a sudden spike in volatility due to shifting macro conditions, a negative reaction to the latest FOMC decision, or a broader market unwind, the whale’s position could come under significant pressure. While large whales often influence market sentiment, this setup illustrates how thin the margin for error has become.

ETH Testing Resistance While Momentum Weakens

Ethereum has retraced to the $3,196 level after failing to hold above the $3,300 zone, signaling that bullish momentum is beginning to weaken. The daily chart shows ETH rejecting the red 200-day moving average, a key long-term trend indicator that has acted as resistance throughout the recent downtrend. Until ETH breaks and closes decisively above this level, the broader structure remains vulnerable.

The 50-day moving average is still sloping downward, reflecting persistent selling pressure despite last week’s rebound. Meanwhile, the 100-day moving average sits well above the current price, reinforcing the heavy overhead resistance ETH must overcome to reestablish a bullish trend. Volume has also declined compared to the early December bounce, suggesting buyers are losing strength as price approaches major resistance levels.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Fall To Lowest Levels on Record: The Bullish Signal Most Traders Are Missing

Structurally, ETH remains in a mid-term downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows since September. Although the recent push from the $2,800 region shows buyers defending key support, the rejection at $3,350 highlights that sellers are still in control at higher levels.

If ETH fails to regain the 200-day moving average soon, a retest of the $3,050–$3,100 support range becomes likely. Conversely, a strong reclaim above $3,350 could open the door for a move toward $3,500, but the market will need renewed momentum to get there.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum has retraced below the $3,200 level following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, a move that initially sparked volatility across the crypto market. While many expected a stronger reaction from Ethereum, the asset instead slipped lower as traders reassessed the macro environment and the implications of a potential shift toward stagflation. Despite this pullback, on-chain data suggests that the underlying market structure may be quietly improving.

According to new insights from CryptoQuant, Ethereum’s Net Taker Volume (30-day moving average) is showing a clear upward trend in its lows. This metric tracks the balance between aggressive buyers and sellers in the derivatives market. Although ETH remains under selling pressure, the data reveals that the intensity of aggressive selling has been weakening steadily over the past several weeks. Each subsequent negative low is forming higher than the previous one, signaling that sellers are losing dominance.

While the broader sentiment remains cautious, subtle improvements in Net Taker Volume suggest that ETH’s current weakness may be masking the early stage of a larger structural shift.

Net Taker Volume Signals a Potential Structural Shift

According to CryptoQuant’s CoinCare, Ethereum may once again be approaching a pivotal turning point. The report highlights that a similar Net Taker Volume structure appeared earlier this year. After forming a clear bottom in January 2025, the metric began to trend upward—even while remaining in the negative zone—indicating that aggressive sellers were gradually losing strength.

By April, Net Taker Volume flipped decisively into positive territory. From that exact moment, Ethereum entered one of its strongest rallies of the cycle, surging more than 3x and printing a new all-time high.

Current conditions echo that same pattern. Since the peak of selling pressure in September, the market has continuously absorbed sell flows for nearly three months. Each negative low in Net Taker Volume has formed higher than the previous one, revealing improving market resilience despite the broader downtrend. If this trajectory holds, CoinCare estimates that a positive flip in Net Taker Volume may be only about a month away.

Historically, this transition from negative to positive has marked the beginning of Ethereum’s most explosive breakout phases. A confirmed move into positive territory would represent a high-probability trigger for the next expansion toward new all-time highs, signaling that momentum is quietly rebuilding beneath the surface.

ETH Weekly Structure Attempts a Recovery

Ethereum’s weekly chart shows the market attempting to stabilize after several weeks of volatility, with price currently trading near $3,195 following a strong rebound from the $2,800 zone. This area acted as a key demand region in mid-2024 and has once again provided support, preventing a deeper breakdown. The recent weekly candle reflects renewed buying interest, closing firmly above the 50-week moving average, a level that often defines medium-term trend direction.

Despite this rebound, ETH still faces structural challenges. The 100-week moving average — now overhead — has acted as resistance throughout the current downtrend, and the price rejected it again on the latest push toward $3,447. Until Ethereum can reclaim this dynamic resistance with conviction, the broader trend remains neutral to slightly bearish.

Volume also shows a notable shift: sell-side activity has been declining over the past month, while buyers are beginning to step in more aggressively at key support levels. This aligns with the improvement in on-chain metrics, suggesting weakening selling pressure.

For bulls, the next major objective is a weekly close above $3,400, which would signal a potential trend reversal. A failure to break this level, however, risks another retest of $2,900–$2,800, where market sentiment would again be tested.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com