Bitcoin is holding firm above the $92,000 level after rebounding from a brief dip to $90,000, but market sentiment remains decisively bearish. Despite the crypto market stabilization, confidence is fragile as traders brace for heightened volatility ahead of the December FOMC meeting. Bulls are attempting to regain momentum, yet the broader market continues to position defensively.

According to a detailed report by XWIN Research Japan, crypto hedge funds and large institutional players are shifting into clear risk-off mode. On-chain data reveals a notable divergence: BTC balances on centralized exchanges are falling, while USDT and USDC reserves are steadily climbing.

This behavior indicates that professional investors are reducing direct crypto market exposure and instead building up stablecoin liquidity on exchanges—capital that can be deployed rapidly depending on the FOMC outcome.

This rise in Stablecoin Exchange Reserves is a textbook sign of event-driven hedging. Institutions are preparing for volatility rather than betting outright on a directional move. Historically, such positioning emerges when markets expect meaningful policy decisions that could reshape short-term liquidity conditions.

Funding Rates Reveal the Market’s True Positioning

According to the XWIN Research Japan report, Funding Rates make the current crypto market structure even clearer. During the August–October 2025 period, funding surged as short-term traders aggressively loaded into long positions ahead of the FOMC decision, only to collapse sharply once the announcement was released.

Bitcoin’s price followed the same pattern: a strong pre-event rally driven by expectations, followed by a swift reversal as leveraged traders were forced to unwind. This fits the historical sequence of rate-cut expectations followed by a temporary rally, and a post-announcement deleveraging and decline.

The report highlights that today’s crypto market is showing similar behaviors. CME futures open interest has stalled, signaling that institutional traders are avoiding high-conviction directional bets. Whale spot holdings remain flat, suggesting that major players are positioned defensively rather than accumulating. At the same time, stablecoin inflows are accelerating, a hallmark of event-driven hedging as capital waits on the sidelines for clarity.

As XWIN Research Japan notes, whether the Fed cuts rates or not, one pattern remains consistent: volatility expands sharply during FOMC week. The danger lies in chasing the pre-meeting bounce without respecting the historical tendency for post-announcement shakeouts. In this environment, risk management—not prediction—is the winning strategy.

Total Crypto Market Cap Holds Key Support But Lacks Momentum

The Total Crypto Market Cap chart shows the market stabilizing around the $3.1 trillion level after a sharp multi-week decline. This area sits just above the 100-week moving average, a historically important dynamic support zone that often defines whether the broader cycle maintains bullish structure or shifts into deeper corrective territory. For now, buyers have stepped in to defend this region, preventing a breakdown that could have opened the door to a retest of the $2.7T–$2.8T area.

Despite the bounce, the structure remains fragile. The market is still trading below the 50-week moving average, which has now begun to bend downward—a sign that momentum has weakened across major assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and key altcoins. Volume has not shown a strong surge on the rebound either, suggesting that institutional conviction remains cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting and macro uncertainty.

A decisive reclaim of the $3.3T–$3.4T zone would shift momentum back in favor of bulls, opening room for a broader recovery. However, failure to break above this cluster of resistance could reinforce the idea that the recent bounce is only corrective. For now, the total market cap hovers at a crossroads, with macro events likely to determine the next major move.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum is trading with renewed strength after breaking above the $3,300 level and briefly pushing toward $3,400, signaling a potential shift in short-term momentum. However, despite this recovery, bullish conviction remains fragile. Many analysts continue to warn that the broader trend still leans bearish, emphasizing that Ethereum has yet to reclaim the structural levels needed to confirm a macro reversal.

Yet one signal has captured significant attention: according to fresh data from Lookonchain, a major whale known as BitcoinOG has doubled down on his Ethereum long position. This trader is widely recognized for being the whale who successfully shorted Bitcoin during the October 10 market crash, a move that earned him substantial profits and elevated his reputation across the on-chain analysis community.

Rather than taking profits after ETH’s recent pump, he has expanded his long exposure—an unusually aggressive stance at a time when most traders remain cautious.

His renewed commitment raises questions about whether smart money is quietly positioning for a larger upside move, even as broader sentiment remains skeptical. If momentum holds, Ethereum may be preparing for a far more significant move than the market currently expects.

Whale Positioning and FOMC Impact

According to Lookonchain, the whale known as BitcoinOG has now expanded his position to 85,001 ETH, valued at roughly $280 million, and is currently sitting on more than $16 million in unrealized profit. Such an aggressive accumulation during a period of widespread caution signals a notable divergence between retail sentiment and whale behavior.

When a trader with a proven track record positions this heavily on the long side, it often reflects a strategic conviction that market conditions could soon shift in favor of higher prices.

However, this positioning unfolds just as the market approaches a pivotal macro event: the FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates can dramatically influence liquidity, risk appetite, and short-term volatility across all risk assets, including Ethereum.

A rate cut could inject optimism into the market by weakening the US dollar and improving overall liquidity conditions. Conversely, a hawkish tone or a smaller-than-expected policy adjustment could trigger a sell-the-news reaction, especially with ETH nearing resistance.

For Ethereum, whale accumulation combined with macro uncertainty creates a high-stakes environment. If liquidity expands post-FOMC, ETH could gain momentum. If not, even strong whale positions may face short-term pressure.

ETH Testing Breakout Strength Ahead of Key Resistance

Ethereum’s 4-hour chart shows a decisive shift in momentum, with ETH pushing firmly above the $3,300 level after a clean breakout from its multi-week downtrend. This move marks one of the strongest bullish impulses since early November, supported by rising volume and a clear reclaim of the 50 EMA and 100 EMA.

The 200 EMA (red), which previously acted as dynamic resistance throughout the decline, has now been tested and is beginning to flatten—often an early indication that bearish momentum is losing dominance.

However, ETH is now hovering directly below a critical resistance zone around $3,380–$3,420, a level where sellers previously stepped in aggressively. The current consolidation just beneath this zone reveals an undecided market: bulls attempt to establish acceptance above $3,300, while bears defend the next resistance layer.

If buyers manage to flip $3,320 into solid support, the path toward $3,500 becomes more achievable, especially if broader market sentiment improves. Conversely, a rejection from the $3,400 area could trigger a short-term pullback toward $3,200–$3,250, where moving averages are now stacked as layered support.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is holding firm above the $92,000 level after rebounding from last week’s dip toward $90,000, offering bulls a brief moment of relief. Yet despite this stabilization, market sentiment remains decisively bearish, with many traders expecting further downside unless a clear shift in momentum emerges. The timing couldn’t be more crucial: the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision has become the central focus for investors, and the market is bracing for heightened volatility.

According to a new CryptoQuant report, Bitcoin’s historical behavior around rate cuts offers meaningful context. Over the years, Fed interest rate cuts have generally aligned with upward movements in BTC, largely because lower rates weaken the US dollar, stimulate liquidity, and support risk assets. However, the report highlights an important nuance—the immediate reaction is rarely straightforward.

In several past instances, Bitcoin rallied ahead of rate cuts, only to show muted or even negative price action once the decision was announced, indicating that markets had already priced in the move.

This dynamic creates a layer of uncertainty heading into the FOMC meeting. While macro conditions align with long-term bullish trends for Bitcoin, the short-term outlook remains fragile, shaped by sentiment, positioning, and the market’s anticipation rather than the announcement itself.

Historical Patterns Signal Caution Ahead of the FOMC

According to the report by GugaOnChain on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s past reactions to Federal Reserve rate cuts offer a clear framework for understanding the risks heading into this week’s FOMC meeting. The historical data paints a picture of mixed and often counterintuitive behavior.

For example, following the 25 basis point cuts in September 2025, Bitcoin barely reacted at all. In another instance, BTC surged to a four-week high—only to drop nearly $2,000 shortly after, settling into a period of muted stability. These reactions underscore how quickly sentiment can shift once policy decisions are fully priced in.

Volatility has also played a defining role. Both the September and October rate decisions triggered brief pre-FOMC rallies, followed by notable declines once the announcements were made. After the September cut, volatility spiked sharply as traders unwound leveraged positions, revealing how sensitive Bitcoin remains to event-driven positioning.

This leads to the recurring “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern, a dynamic that GugaOnChain warns could repeat. Because of this, monitoring market leverage—including funding rates and open interest—is crucial. Equally important are liquidity flows, such as exchange reserves and ETF activity. Together, these indicators help traders anticipate short-term price movements as Bitcoin prepares for another potentially volatile macro event.

Testing Recovery but Still Below Key Trend Levels

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows the market attempting to stabilize above the $92,000 level after a sharp multi-week correction from the $120,000 region. The recent rebound from the $89,000–$90,000 zone highlights strong demand at the 100-week moving average (green line), which is currently acting as a critical dynamic support.

Historically, this MA has served as a structural backbone for Bitcoin during mid-cycle pullbacks, and the latest bounce reinforces its relevance.

However, despite the recovery, BTC remains firmly below the 50-week moving average (blue line), a level that previously marked bullish continuation phases throughout 2024 and early 2025. Until price reclaims this region—now sitting near $100,000—the broader market structure leans corrective rather than impulsively bullish. The lower highs formed since the peak also suggest that bears still retain control over the medium-term trend.

Volume behavior adds another layer: although buying volume has picked up modestly, it remains significantly weaker than the aggressive selling pressure seen during the November–December decline. This indicates that buyers are showing interest, but conviction has yet to return in full force.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum has pushed above the $3,350 level, injecting fresh momentum into the market after weeks of uncertainty. Yet despite this breakout, overall sentiment remains clouded by fear, with many analysts still warning that the broader structure points toward a developing bear market. Traders now find themselves at a pivotal juncture: is this the beginning of a sustained recovery, or merely a temporary rally before further downside?

According to a new CryptoQuant report, one of the most revealing indicators right now is Ethereum’s funding rate behavior across major exchanges. Unlike the explosive funding spikes seen during the two major rallies earlier this year, the current move shows a remarkably restrained funding environment. During those earlier surges, funding rates climbed aggressively into overheated territory, signaling euphoric long leverage and speculative excess — conditions that closely preceded short-term market tops.

This time, however, funding remains far more subdued. The absence of aggressive long positioning suggests that the current rally is not being driven by excessive leverage, which gives the move a different character compared to earlier spikes. Whether this signals healthier accumulation or simply a lack of conviction remains the core question as Ethereum approaches the next decisive phase.

Muted Funding Rates Highlight a Cautious But Potentially Constructive Rally

The CryptoQuant report highlights that, unlike previous explosive rallies, Ethereum’s current funding rates remain unusually low, even after its sharp recovery from the $2.8K region. This subdued funding environment signals that the derivatives market is not yet saturated with speculative long positions.

Buyers are stepping in, but modest leverage drives this move compared to past phases dominated by aggressive traders. Consequently, spot accumulation drives the current advance more than overheated futures activity.

This difference carries important implications. Without a surge in speculative demand, Ethereum may struggle to ignite the kind of full bullish continuation leg seen in earlier breakout cycles. Historically, strong uptrends have required funding rates to expand meaningfully as traders chase price, forcing shorts to cover and fueling upward momentum. That behavior has not yet emerged in the current structure.

However, this muted landscape is not inherently bearish. Instead, it reflects a recovering market, not an overextended one. This leaves Ethereum with room to climb further — if demand strengthens. At the same time, the lack of leverage means the rally remains vulnerable; strong resistance rejections could quickly weaken momentum unless fresh buyers step in.

Testing Key Resistance as Momentum Builds

Ethereum’s daily chart shows a notable shift in momentum as the price pushes toward $3,320, extending its rebound from the sub-$2,800 lows. This recovery phase has been steady rather than explosive, reflecting a market that is stabilizing but still facing key overhead challenges.

The first major test is the 200-day moving average (red line), which ETH is now approaching after several weeks of trading below it. Historically, reclaiming this level has marked the transition from corrective phases into renewed bullish cycles, but a clean breakout is far from guaranteed.

The structure of the recent move highlights improving buyer confidence: ETH has formed a series of higher lows, indicating accumulation after the capitulation-like November drop. Although buyers are active, the relatively subdued volume profile suggests they lack broad-based conviction. A stronger influx of volume must flip the trend decisively bullish.

The 50-day and 100-day moving averages remain above the current price and are both aligned downward, reinforcing that ETH is still technically in a broader downtrend. For momentum to extend, Ethereum must break above the $3,350–$3,400 resistance zone, where prior support turned into resistance.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is holding above $90,000 as the market heads into a highly anticipated FOMC meeting, a moment that could define the next direction for risk assets. But while price action keeps traders on edge, on-chain indicators are painting a surprisingly different picture beneath the surface. According to a new CryptoQuant report by XWIN Research Japan, Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have continued to fall sharply throughout 2025, even as price corrected toward the $90K range.

The data shows that the total amount of BTC held on centralized exchanges has dropped to 2.76 million BTC, reaching one of the lowest levels ever recorded. What makes this trend even more striking is its timing: during the steep November–December sell-off, exchange balances did not rise—they fell faster. The report highlights this behavior in the red-marked zone of the chart, showing accelerating outflows while the price was dropping.

This pattern signals something unusual: investors are not sending coins to exchanges to sell into weakness. Instead, they continue withdrawing BTC into long-term custody, suggesting confidence rather than capitulation. As volatility builds ahead of the FOMC decision, the contrast between short-term price fear and long-term accumulation is becoming one of the most important dynamics in the current Bitcoin market.

Shrinking Exchange Reserves Signal Structural Strength

The report emphasizes that Bitcoin’s rapidly shrinking exchange reserves carry important structural implications for the market. When fewer coins sit on centralized exchanges, it means less Bitcoin is available for immediate sale, effectively tightening the liquid supply. According to the data, this decline is not being driven by short-term speculators but by long-term holders and institutional entities steadily moving BTC into self-custody or cold storage.

What makes this trend remarkable is its timing. Historically, sharp price declines trigger a wave of inflows to exchanges as investors prepare to sell or panic-exit their positions. This cycle, however, tells a very different story. Even as Bitcoin corrected into the $90K region, exchange balances kept falling, suggesting that buyers with a long-term outlook are actively accumulating rather than retreating.

This divergence between price action and on-chain behavior signals underlying strength. While short-term volatility may continue—especially around macro catalysts like the FOMC meeting—the broader structure points toward a market quietly tightening its available supply. As reserves move toward historic lows, a future “supply shock” becomes increasingly plausible.

Despite the weak spot market performance, on-chain metrics are slowly turning bullish, hinting that the foundation for the next major trend may already be forming beneath the surface.

BTC Tests Critical Support as Market Awaits Direction

Bitcoin’s price action on the 3-day chart shows a market attempting to stabilize after a sharp corrective phase. BTC is currently trading around $90,437, hovering just above the 200-day moving average — a level that has historically acted as a major dynamic support during mid-cycle retracements. The recent bounce from the $87K–$88K region suggests that buyers are defending this zone, but the structure remains fragile as long as the price stays below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, both of which are now sloping downward.

The chart reveals a clear shift in momentum. After months of steady higher lows, Bitcoin broke its ascending structure in late November, leading to a fast drop toward the high-$80K range. Volume increased during the decline, indicating stronger participation on the sell side. However, the subsequent candles show shrinking sell volume, hinting at exhaustion among short-term sellers.

For a meaningful recovery, BTC must reclaim the $95K–$97K area, where previous support turned into resistance. Failure to break that zone would likely keep the market in a consolidation phase, with risks of another retest of the 200-day MA.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is trading at a decisive moment, holding just above the $90,000 mark after several days of tight consolidation. Despite reclaiming this key level, the market continues to struggle with upward momentum, leaving traders uncertain about the next major move. Yet beneath the surface, a key on-chain indicator has triggered fresh interest among analysts. According to top analyst Darkfost, the Hash Ribbons have just flashed a new buy signal — a development that historically aligns with strong medium-term performance for Bitcoin.

Darkfost emphasizes that this signal is not a cue to rush blindly into the market, but rather a meaningful piece of data worth highlighting. Hash Ribbon signals typically appear during periods of miner stress, when mining difficulty forces weaker miners to shut down.

These moments often precede significant accumulation phases, as selling pressure from distressed miners fades. With the exception of the unprecedented 2021 mining ban in China, every previous Hash Ribbon buy signal has produced profitable outcomes for patient investors.

Understanding The Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Signal

Darkfost explains that the Hash Ribbons indicator is built around the evolution of Bitcoin’s hashrate, comparing the 30-day and 60-day moving averages to detect periods of miner stress. When the 30-day MA of the hashrate falls below the 60-day MA, it signals that mining difficulty is rising relative to miner profitability.

In these phases, less efficient miners are often forced to scale back operations or shut down entirely, reducing the overall network hashrate.

While mining difficulty itself is influenced by several factors — including electricity costs, hardware efficiency, block rewards, and, of course, Bitcoin’s price — the key point is that miner capitulation tends to create short-term selling pressure. Miners may liquidate part of their reserves to stay afloat, often contributing to temporary weakness in the market.

However, Darkfost emphasizes that these periods of stress historically present strong mid-cycle accumulation opportunities. As weaker miners exit and difficulty adjusts downward, the market often enters a healthier phase where selling pressure subsides, and long-term participants begin to accumulate BTC at discounted prices.

Over the years, Hash Ribbon buy signals have frequently marked early stages of major recoveries, offering investors a structural, data-driven advantage even when sentiment appears uncertain.

Testing Support as Momentum Weakens

Bitcoin continues to trade just above the $90,000 level, showing signs of stabilization after several weeks of heavy downside momentum. The chart reveals that BTC has bounced off the 100-day moving average (green), which is now acting as a key dynamic support zone. This level has historically served as an important midpoint during major pullbacks, and the market’s ability to hold above it suggests that selling pressure may be easing.

However, the price remains well below the 50-day moving average (blue), which has begun to curve downward — a signal that short-term momentum still leans bearish. For a stronger recovery, Bitcoin must reclaim this moving average and convert it into support. Until then, rallies may struggle to extend meaningfully.

Volume has also compressed significantly compared to the earlier stages of the uptrend. This decline indicates hesitation from both buyers and sellers, often typical during consolidation phases following sharp corrections. The lack of aggressive selling is a constructive sign, but the absence of strong buy-side interest keeps BTC vulnerable to further swings.

If Bitcoin holds above the $90K–$88K area, it could build a base for a broader rebound. A breakdown below this region, however, would open the door to deeper retracements toward the mid-$80K range.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum is holding above the $3,000 level for the fourth consecutive day as the market enters a decisive week dominated by the upcoming FOMC meeting. Traders are cautiously positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement, aware that liquidity signals and rate expectations could determine whether this recovery continues—or breaks down.

Despite the recent stabilization, fear remains firmly in control. Many analysts warn that if ETH loses the $3K floor, the market could face a deeper retracement, especially with volatility expected to spike around the macro event.

Amid this uncertainty, on-chain data from Lookonchain has revealed a striking development: BitcoinOG, the same whale who famously shorted the market during the violent October 10 crash, has now dramatically increased his bullish exposure to Ethereum. According to the data, he has ramped up his long position to 67,103.68 ETH, valued at approximately $209.8 million.

Whale Positioning Adds a New Layer of Volatility

According to Lookonchain, the BitcoinOG whale is now sitting on more than $4 million in unrealized profit from his massive Ethereum long. His position of 67,103.68 ETH, currently valued at over $209 million, comes with a liquidation price of $2,069.49, a level far below current market conditions but still within the realm of possibility if macro pressure intensifies.

This liquidation threshold is especially important because it reveals the whale’s risk appetite and how aggressively he’s leveraging this bet. A liquidation level near $2,070 implies confidence that Ethereum won’t revisit its deeper range lows, even as the market remains fragile ahead of the FOMC meeting. It also shows he has a significant margin buffer behind the trade, suggesting strategic positioning rather than impulsive speculation.

However, large leveraged positions can act as double-edged swords for the broader market. If price begins trending toward his liquidation zone, cascading liquidations across other longs could accelerate downside momentum. Conversely, whales with deep pockets often defend key levels to protect their positions.

ETH Higher-Timeframe Trend Remains Fragile

Ethereum’s weekly chart shows the market fighting to stabilize above the $3,000–$3,150 zone, a level that now acts as the primary support band after weeks of heavy selling. The recent bounce from the mid-$2,700s has created a short-term relief structure, but ETH still trades well below its 50-week moving average, which is beginning to curl downward—a signal that the broader trend is losing momentum.

The chart highlights a clear pattern: each rebound over the past six months has produced lower highs, reflecting persistent seller dominance whenever ETH approaches the $3,500–$3,800 region. This repeated rejection zone marks a key resistance cluster that bulls must reclaim to shift the medium-term outlook back toward bullish continuation.

Volume also remains relatively muted compared to earlier stages of the cycle, suggesting that current buying interest is hesitant. Without a surge in spot demand, rallies may continue to fade quickly.

On the positive side, ETH has reclaimed the 200-week moving average, an important long-term support that historically acts as a pivot between macro bull and bear phases. As long as this level holds, Ethereum retains structural strength.

ETH is in a neutral-to-bearish consolidation, and a decisive weekly close above $3,300 is needed to confirm regained momentum.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum has spent the past several days consolidating in a tight range between $3,000 and $3,200, signaling a moment of hesitation as the broader market struggles to find direction. Despite attempts to push higher, momentum has flattened, and uncertainty continues to dominate sentiment. Many analysts now warn that Ethereum may be entering a deeper bearish phase, pointing to weakening spot demand, fragile market structure, and fading optimism across major exchanges.

However, one on-chain development has captured the market’s attention. According to new data from CryptoQuant, December 5, 2025 saw a massive spike in Ethereum Exchange Netflow to Binance, marking one of the largest daily inflows in years. Such a surge typically raises questions about investor intentions: large inflows often signal that holders are moving ETH onto exchanges with the potential to sell, increasing the probability of short-term volatility or downside pressure.

Yet the broader context matters. Ethereum’s price remains above key support, suggesting that the market is in a critical decision zone rather than a confirmed breakdown. This combination of consolidation, rising caution, and an unusually large exchange inflow sets the stage for what could become a pivotal moment for ETH as traders prepare for the next major move.

Massive Netflow Surge Raises Caution for Ethereum

According to data from CryptoOnchain shared on CryptoQuant, Ethereum experienced a striking shift in exchange activity on December 5, 2025. The netflow to Binance reached 162,084 ETH while the price hovered near $3,021, marking the largest daily positive netflow since May 2023. Such an influx is significant, not only because of its size but because of what it typically signals: a rise in the number of investors moving ETH from self-custody to exchanges.

Historically, large positive netflows are interpreted as potentially bearish, suggesting that holders may be preparing to sell or rebalance. When deposits drastically outweigh withdrawals, it can precede heightened selling pressure, especially when the market is already in a fragile state. Inflows of this magnitude can act as a temporary supply shock; if even a portion of this ETH hits the order books as market sells, the price could face increased volatility or short-term corrective pressure.

Because of this, traders should closely monitor how Binance absorbs this liquidity. Watching order book depth, open interest reactions, and subsequent netflow patterns will reveal whether this was a one-off spike or the beginning of a broader shift in investor behavior. In a market this delicate, even a single inflow event can set the tone for the days ahead.

ETH Price Attempts Stabilization

Ethereum’s daily chart shows a market in the process of stabilizing, but still weighed down by significant structural resistance. After dipping below $2,800 in late November, ETH has managed to reclaim the $3,100 region, where it has been consolidating for several days. This range-bound behavior signals a pause in the prior downtrend, yet the recovery lacks the strong momentum typically seen in bullish reversals.

The 50-day and 100-day moving averages remain positioned above the current price, forming a clear zone of resistance between $3,250 and $3,500. These declining MAs highlight that the broader trend still favors sellers, and ETH will need a decisive breakout above them to shift market sentiment. The 200-day MA, sitting higher, reinforces the idea that Ethereum is still trading below its long-term trend structure.

Volume has also weakened during this rebound, suggesting that buyers are hesitant to commit aggressively at current levels. The recent spike in exchange netflows adds another layer of caution, raising the possibility of increased near-term selling pressure.

ETH is showing early signs of stabilization, but the path forward requires stronger conviction. Until price breaks above the cluster of moving averages, this recovery remains fragile and vulnerable to renewed downside pressure.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin started the week attempting to reclaim the $92,000 level, a move that hints at early signs of recovery after weeks of volatility and uncertainty. This renewed strength arrives at a critical moment for global markets, as investors turn their attention to one event: the upcoming FOMC meeting. According to a new CryptoQuant report by XWIN Research Japan, the central question is whether the Federal Reserve will finally begin cutting interest rates—a decision that could reshape market expectations heading into 2026.

Historical data provides an important context. During the last two rate-cut announcements on September 17 and October 29, Bitcoin followed a strikingly similar pattern. Prices climbed in the days leading up to each meeting, reflecting optimism and speculation.

Immediately after the announcements, the market experienced a brief bounce, only to fall sharply soon after. This behavior highlights a common reaction in macro-driven markets: although rate cuts are usually seen as bullish, they often fuel a “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic in the short term as traders lock in profits.

With Bitcoin hovering below major resistance and macro uncertainty rising again, the coming days may determine whether this attempted recovery evolves into momentum—or fades into another corrective swing.

Market Positioning Meets Macro Reality

Rather than simply repeating past rate-cut reactions, the current setup requires placing Bitcoin’s behavior in the broader macroeconomic landscape—a landscape that looks very different from previous cycles. While XWIN Research highlights the historical “up first, down later” pattern around FOMC cuts, the real story lies in how today’s liquidity conditions interact with on-chain signals.

Stablecoin exchange reserves now reflect not just crypto sentiment but the macro backdrop. With the US nearing the end of quantitative tightening and global liquidity subtly improving, rising stablecoin reserves would confirm that investors are preparing to deploy capital into risk assets.

If reserves remain flat or decline, it may indicate hesitation tied to uncertainty over inflation persistence or concerns about policy missteps.

Funding rates, meanwhile, must be interpreted through the lens of a market recalibrating after a 36% correction while still operating in a high-rate environment. Excessive long leverage during a macro turning point—especially if the Fed cuts earlier than expected—creates the perfect setup for volatility spikes.

Neutral or mildly positive funding, however, would suggest traders are not overextended, allowing Bitcoin to absorb macro news more smoothly.

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s reaction to the FOMC will depend on the interplay between improving macro liquidity conditions and the internal positioning of the market. This cycle’s environment is more complex—and potentially more supportive—than prior rate-cut events, making risk-managed positioning more crucial than prediction.

Weekly Chart Shows Stabilization But Trend Still Vulnerable

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows the market attempting to stabilize after a sharp multi-week correction, with price hovering around $91,800. The current candle is printing a modest rebound, signaling that buyers are stepping in near the green 100-week moving average, a level that has acted as a cyclical support zone in past downturns. This reaction suggests that long-term participants are defending the structure, even as momentum remains weak.

Despite the bounce, BTC continues to trade well below the 50-week moving average, which has curled downward—evidence that medium-term trend pressure still leans bearish. The breakdown from the $110K–$100K region triggered a decisive shift in sentiment, and the latest consolidation under $95K reflects a market still searching for direction rather than forming a clear recovery trend.

Volume also tells an important story: selling spikes in recent weeks have been met with noticeably softer buy-side volume, indicating that bulls are present but not yet aggressive. Until a sustained surge in demand appears, rallies near the 50-week MA are likely to face resistance.

If Bitcoin holds the 100-week MA and forms higher weekly lows, a recovery phase could build. Failure to maintain this zone, however, would expose deeper downside levels and confirm a broader trend reversal.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim the $92,000 level as bullish momentum gradually returns after weeks of uncertainty. The market has spent nearly two months in a corrective phase, shedding roughly 36% from its highs, yet signs of stabilization are beginning to emerge. A new CryptoQuant report from analyst Darkfost highlights a striking deviation from typical mid-cycle correction behavior—one that may explain why sentiment is starting to shift.

According to the report, inflows of cryptocurrencies onto Binance remain unusually low, even as Bitcoin has experienced one of its deepest pullbacks of the cycle. Historically, during significant corrections, investors tend to send large amounts of BTC and other assets to exchanges, signaling growing willingness to sell and escalating market fear. This pattern appeared repeatedly in past downturns, often marking periods of capitulation.

But this time, the data suggests something different: investors are not rushing to offload their holdings. Instead, they appear more comfortable holding through volatility, showing patience rather than panic. Such low inflows contrast sharply with prior mid-cycle resets and hint at a more resilient market structure beneath the surface—one where holders may be preparing for the next phase rather than abandoning ship.

A Shift in Inflows Reveals Unusual Investor Behavior

Darkfost notes that today’s data shows a markedly different behavior from what Bitcoin typically displays during major corrections. Instead of focusing on BTC alone, the analysis aggregates total inflows of all cryptocurrencies sent to Binance, offering a broader view of market intent. The logic behind this metric is straightforward: rising inflows signal growing selling pressure, while shrinking inflows indicate that investors prefer to hold rather than exit their positions.

During previous downturns, inflows surged. In April 2024, right after Bitcoin hit a new all-time high at $73,800, total inflows exceeded 200 million coins, reflecting intense selling pressure. A similar spike appeared in December 2024, as BTC broke above $100,000, signaling that investors were preparing to lock in profits.

Today’s environment looks nothing like those periods. Despite experiencing a much deeper correction, inflows are five times lower—and notably stable. Investors are not sending coins to exchanges, which means they’re not eager to sell. Instead, they are sitting through the decline, showing patience rather than panic.

This unusual calm suggests a more confident market structure. If selling pressure continues to fade, this investor restraint could become one of the most constructive signals supporting a future bullish recovery once the correction runs its course.

Bitcoin Price Action Shows Early Signs of Stabilization

Bitcoin’s latest 3-day chart shows the market attempting to stabilize after a sharp two-month correction that pushed the price from above $120,000 to the recent lows near $84,000. The current rebound toward $91,960 reflects improving short-term sentiment, but the broader structure still leans bearish until key levels break.

One of the most important developments is BTC’s interaction with the 200-day moving average (red line). The price dipped below it during the flush-out but has now reclaimed it slightly, a signal that sellers may be losing momentum. Historically, regaining the 200MA on high timeframes marks the first stage of recovery after major corrections. However, confirmation requires follow-through and stronger volume—something that remains limited for now.

The 50MA and 100MA sit well above price, reflecting the depth of the recent decline and acting as overhead resistance. The clustering of these moving averages between $100,000 and $110,000 forms a heavy supply zone. Bulls would need several consecutive strong candles to break back into that region.

Volume has decreased notably during the rebound, suggesting that buyers are still cautious. Until BTC reclaims the $96K–$98K area—where structural resistance and realized-price bands align—this move remains a relief bounce rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum has reclaimed the $3,150 level after a volatile stretch, offering a rare sign of strength in an otherwise uncertain market. The broader crypto landscape remains sharply divided: some analysts argue that ETH and the rest of the market still face downward continuation, potentially setting new local lows, while others believe this correction is simply a reset before a much larger bull cycle—possibly extending into 2026.

Yet one signal stands out clearly amid the noise: smart whales are unanimously going long on ETH. On-chain data shows that several of the most profitable and consistent whale traders—each with tens of millions in realized gains—have opened substantial long positions, collectively exceeding hundreds of millions of dollars. Their coordinated behavior indicates confidence that Ethereum’s recent lows represent opportunity rather than danger.

This alignment among top-performing whales introduces a compelling counterpoint to bearish narratives. While retail sentiment remains fragile, the most sophisticated market participants appear to be positioning for a larger move ahead. As Ethereum stabilizes above $3,150, the question now becomes whether whale conviction will prove to be early—or correct.

Top Performers Load Up on Ethereum

According to Hyperdash data shared by Lookonchain, some of the most successful and influential whales in the market are aggressively accumulating Ethereum—sending a strong signal that high-conviction players expect upside ahead.

One of the most notable is BitcoinOG, the trader widely recognized for shorting the market during the violent 10/10 crash, a move that earned him significant credibility. With a total realized PNL of $105 million, BitcoinOG is now positioned firmly on the bullish side, holding 54,277 ETH worth approximately $169.48 million.

Another major player is the well-known Anti-CZ whale, named for his historical pattern of taking the opposite side of positions favored by Binance founder Changpeng Zhao. With an impressive $58.8 million in total PNL, this whale is currently long 62,156 ETH—a massive $194 million position. His trades have often been early indicators of broad market direction, adding weight to this shift toward bullish exposure.

Finally, pension-usdt.eth, a consistently profitable whale address with $16.3 million in realized gains, is long 20,000 ETH valued at $62.5 million.

Taken together, these positions reflect a unified stance among top-performing whales: despite market uncertainty, they are positioning for Ethereum strength.

Weekly Structure Shows Early Signs of Stabilization

Ethereum’s weekly chart reveals a market attempting to regain its footing after a sharp multi-week decline from the $4,500 region. The recent reclaim of $3,150 is a meaningful development, as this level aligns closely with prior weekly support from mid-2024 and sits just above the 50-week moving average—an area that often acts as a trend-defining zone. ETH briefly dipped below this region during the November selloff, but buyers stepped in aggressively, producing a strong weekly wick that signals demand at lower levels.

Despite this recovery attempt, ETH remains below key resistance levels. The 20-week and 100-week moving averages are positioned above the current price and converging, creating a zone of potential rejection unless momentum strengthens. For now, ETH is trading in a transitional structure: no longer trending downward aggressively, but not yet showing a confirmed bullish reversal on high timeframes.

Volume patterns also support this interpretation. Selling volume has diminished compared to the capitulation phase, while recent green candles show moderate but steady buying interest—suggesting accumulation rather than full risk-on behavior.

If ETH can establish consecutive weekly closes above $3,200–$3,300, the chart opens the door for a retest of the $3,600–$3,800 range. Failure to hold $3,150, however, risks another move toward $2,800 support.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum has reclaimed the $3,150 level after a volatile Sunday session that left traders divided on what comes next. Some analysts warn that ETH’s recent bounce is nothing more than a temporary pause before the downtrend resumes, while others see signs of a potential bullish reversal forming at current levels.

Fresh data from Binance reveals that Ethereum is now entering a delicate phase. Price momentum has clearly weakened, yet open interest remains relatively high despite the decline from the $3,900 region. This disconnect highlights a major shift in futures market behavior: traders are holding positions, but not aggressively increasing them.

The 30-day open interest Z-Score currently sits at 0.50, indicating that OI is just slightly above its 30-day average—well within normal volatility bands. Unlike previous corrections, where open interest surged during heavy selling, the current reading suggests neither extreme leverage buildup nor panic-driven position closures.

This unusual combination—weakening momentum paired with stable open interest—underscores a market in transition. Whether Ethereum resumes its downtrend or begins carving out a recovery will depend on how quickly momentum returns to spot and futures markets in the days ahead.

Open Interest Stability Signals a Market in Repositioning

According to the Arab Chain report on CryptoQuant, Ethereum’s $6.61 billion in open interest highlights that traders are still holding a substantial share of their positions despite the sharp decline from $3,900 to below $3,200. This divergence—falling price but steady OI—is characteristic of market repositioning phases, where traders reduce activity without fully exiting the market.

The supporting metrics reinforce this view: the OI avg30 sits at $6.44 billion, and the OI std30 at $329 million, indicating that current fluctuations remain well within normal volatility ranges. There is no sign of aggressive position buildup or liquidation pressure.

With the Z-Score at 0.50, the modest rise in open interest does not suggest overwhelming bearish leverage. Instead, it shows that traders are still engaging with the market and selectively building new positions as price declines. This level of participation is important: it signals that the derivatives market is active but not overheated.

Ethereum’s price weakness, driven by fading momentum after failing to sustain its previous highs, leaves the market at an inflection point. If large traders are predominantly short, stable OI could support the continuation of downward pressure. However, if long positions dominate, this same stability may lay the groundwork for a rebound once momentum returns.

Testing Momentum as Bulls Attempt to Reclaim Control

Ethereum is attempting to stabilize above the $3,150–$3,160 zone after a volatile multi-week decline. The chart shows ETH rebounding from a local low near $2,750, forming a short-term rising structure. However, momentum remains fragile. The 50-day SMA continues to slope downward and sits well above current price action, reinforcing the broader downtrend. Until ETH can break and close above this moving average, upside attempts will likely face resistance.

The 100-day SMA is also declining, converging with the $3,350–$3,400 region—an area that could act as the next major ceiling for any bullish continuation. Meanwhile, the 200-day SMA remains flat but sits just above price, creating an additional barrier around $3,250–$3,300. This cluster of resistance levels confirms that Ethereum is still operating within a corrective structure despite the recent bounce.

Volume has tapered off noticeably compared to the heavy sell-side spikes seen in November. This suggests that the rebound may be driven more by diminishing selling pressure than strong spot demand. If volume remains weak, ETH may struggle to build enough momentum for a sustained recovery.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum has retraced from the $3,240 level and is now testing the $3,150 zone as support, a key area that traders are closely watching. Bulls are attempting to defend this level after a modest rebound, but uncertainty remains high as the market tries to establish direction following weeks of volatility and aggressive selling pressure. While some analysts view this consolidation as the early stages of a recovery, others warn that ETH may still be vulnerable to deeper pullbacks if momentum fails to strengthen.

According to top analyst Darkfost, Ethereum’s recent price action is being shaped by a notable shift in market structure. Over the past few days, spot volumes have continued to decline, even as the price attempted a small recovery. This weakening in spot activity reduces the impact of actual buying and selling on the underlying asset, making futures markets increasingly influential in dictating short-term price direction.

As Darkfost explains, when spot volume thins out, futures often become the dominant driver of volatility. This dynamic can accelerate both upside and downside moves, depending on traders’ positioning. With Ethereum now sitting at a critical support level, the market awaits clearer signals to determine whether this rebound can evolve into a sustained recovery or merely represents a temporary pause in the downtrend.

Futures-Driven Momentum Raises the Stakes for Ethereum

Darkfost expands on this dynamic by noting that when spot volumes weaken to the extent seen over the past few days, the risk of heightened volatility increases sharply. Thin spot liquidity means fewer buy and sell orders are available to absorb sudden moves, allowing futures-driven momentum to exert an outsized influence on price. This environment often produces sharper swings and rapid directional shifts, as leveraged traders and algorithmic strategies dominate short-term market behavior.

For now, the futures market is tilting upward, providing a constructive force that is helping Ethereum hold above the $3,150 support zone. Darkfost emphasizes that this upward pressure from futures could work in the bulls’ favor, as volatility—if it expands to the upside—may push the spot market to follow the same trajectory.

In other words, a sustained futures-led rebound could act as the spark needed for a broader recovery, especially if spot buyers gain confidence and begin re-entering the market.

However, this setup cuts both ways. Without stronger spot participation, any reversal in futures positioning could quickly translate into accelerated downside pressure. For now, Ethereum sits in a delicate phase where volatility is both a potential catalyst and a potential threat, making the next few sessions crucial for determining the market’s short-term direction.

ETH Weekly Structure Holds Key Support

Ethereum’s weekly chart shows a market attempting to stabilize after a steep downturn from the $4,500 region. ETH has rebounded toward $3,140, reclaiming its 100-week moving average (green line) — a historically important support level that often defines the boundary between mid-term bullish and bearish phases. This bounce signals renewed demand at a critical zone, especially after the strong wick rejection seen near $2,700, where buyers stepped in aggressively.

However, Ethereum still faces meaningful resistance overhead. The 50-week moving average (blue line), now hovering near $3,400–$3,500, has flipped into resistance and remains the next major hurdle for bulls. A successful reclaim of this zone would materially improve ETH’s technical structure and open the door to a challenge of higher levels. Until then, the weekly trend remains neutral to slightly bearish.

Volume offers an encouraging signal: the recent rebound occurred with a noticeable uptick in buying activity compared to prior weeks, suggesting strengthened interest at these lower levels. Yet the broader structure shows a pattern of lower highs since August, meaning ETH must demonstrate follow-through to avoid slipping back into deeper consolidation.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is holding firmly above the $92,000 level after several days of relief and a stronger-than-expected rebound across the market. Yet despite the positive price action, analysts remain deeply divided. Some interpret this move as a classic relief rally within a broader downtrend, warning that the macro structure still favors a deeper correction.

Others see the recent recovery as the first sign that Bitcoin may be stabilizing and preparing for another bullish phase. The uncertainty reflects the conflicting signals coming from both derivatives and spot markets.

Adding fuel to the discussion, new on-chain data from Arkham shows that Matrixport withdrew 3,805 BTC—worth approximately $352.5 million—from Binance within the last 24 hours. This is a significant development, as Matrixport is one of Asia’s largest crypto financial service platforms, founded by Jihan Wu, the co-founder of Bitmain. The firm provides institutional-grade investment products, lending, trading, and asset management solutions to high-net-worth clients and funds across the region.

Large withdrawals from exchanges by institutions like Matrixport often signal accumulation, reduced selling pressure, or repositioning for custody and long-term holding. Combined with Bitcoin’s stabilization above $92K, this data adds an important layer of complexity to the current market outlook.

Institutional Positioning and a Changing Macro Landscape

Matrixport’s withdrawal of 3,805 BTC from Binance signals a potentially meaningful shift in institutional positioning. Large entities rarely move this size of capital without intention. Such withdrawals typically imply reduced selling pressure and a preference for custody over exchange liquidity, often interpreted as quiet accumulation.

For a firm managing billions in client assets, reallocating Bitcoin off exchanges suggests growing confidence in medium-term price stability or an expectation of improving market conditions.

This move arrives at a pivotal moment in the global macro environment. The Federal Reserve has ended Quantitative Tightening (QT), marking a major transition from liquidity withdrawal to a more accommodative stance. Historically, the end of QT has preceded periods of asset reflation, as systemic liquidity begins to stabilize.

At the same time, Japanese bond yields have surged, signaling stress in one of the world’s most influential funding markets. A spike in Japanese yields often triggers global liquidity adjustments, particularly through the carry trade, which can ultimately redirect capital toward risk assets—including Bitcoin.

Additionally, markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon, further easing financial conditions. Lower rates weaken the dollar, reduce funding costs, and typically stimulate inflows into alternative and high-beta assets.

In this environment of softening monetary policy and rising liquidity, Matrixport’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation could reflect growing institutional conviction that the worst of the downturn is behind us—and that Bitcoin may be entering a more favorable macro phase.

BTC Price Analysis: Testing Recovery Momentum

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the market attempting to stabilize after the sharp decline that pushed price toward the mid-$80,000s. The rebound into the $91K–$93K zone marks the first meaningful recovery attempt, but the structure still reflects caution.

BTC remains below the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, which have both started to slope downward, signaling that the broader trend has not yet shifted back in favor of the bulls. Until Bitcoin reclaims these moving averages with strong volume, the market will likely see this move as a relief rally rather than a confirmed reversal.

Price is currently consolidating above the 200-day SMA, a level that often acts as a long-term trend gauge. Holding this region is essential; losing it would risk a deeper drop toward earlier support zones near $82K–$84K. Volume activity during the bounce shows some improvement, yet it remains far below the levels seen during the late-October peak, suggesting that buyers are cautious and large players are not fully engaged.

The chart also shows a clear lower-high structure forming since September, confirming the bearish pressure that has dominated the last several weeks. For sentiment to shift decisively, BTC must break above $95K and rebuild momentum toward the psychological $100K mark. Until then, volatility and hesitation remain the defining features of this recovery.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is trading around $91,000 after a minor dip earlier today, and uncertainty continues to dominate sentiment. The market sits at a crossroads: a small but vocal group of analysts argues that the recent correction served as a healthy reset before a continuation of the broader uptrend, while the majority of traders believe the first leg of a new bear market is already underway. With price action still showing hesitation, the debate grows louder by the day.

According to top analyst Darkfost, a critical threshold will help determine Bitcoin’s next major direction. He highlights the importance of the Realized Price of the youngest Long-Term Holder (LTH) band, which currently sits at $96,956. This metric marks the transition point between short-term and long-term holders and is viewed as a psychological and structural barrier for market stability.

Reclaiming this level would push these young LTHs back into a comfortable profit zone, reducing their incentive to sell and helping to restore confidence across the market. Until Bitcoin closes decisively above $97K, Darkfost warns that caution is warranted, as volatility remains high and the risk of further downside persists.

Why the $97K Threshold Matters for Bitcoin’s Next Major Move

Darkfost emphasizes that the $96,956–$97,000 zone plays a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin’s next phase. This level represents the Realized Price of the youngest Long-Term Holder band, meaning it reflects the average cost basis of investors who recently transitioned from short-term to long-term holding behavior. When Bitcoin trades below this threshold, these holders sit at an unrealized loss, increasing the likelihood of panic selling and adding pressure to the market.

Breaking above this zone would flip sentiment for this group almost immediately. Darkfost explains that reclaiming $97K would place these investors back into a comfortable profit position, restoring their confidence and expectations of potential gains. Once this psychological weight lifts, these holders typically choose to keep accumulating rather than selling, which naturally brings more stability to the market.

However, he cautions that Bitcoin’s failure to close above $97,000 keeps the risk tilted to the downside. As long as the price remains below this band, the market stays vulnerable, and volatility may continue.

Even if BTC successfully reclaims $97K, Darkfost reminds that this is only the first step. The market would still need stronger structural confirmation—such as reclaiming key moving averages and rebuilding demand—to validate a true bullish reversal that could eventually lead to a new all-time high.

BTC Weekly Structure Shows Early Signs of Stabilization

Bitcoin’s weekly chart reflects a market trying to stabilize after a sharp multi-week correction that dragged the price from above $115,000 down toward the mid-$80,000s. The latest weekly candle shows a firm rebound from the 100-week moving average (green line), now acting as dynamic support around the $84,000–$86,000 region. This level historically attracts long-term buyers, and the strong wick rejection confirms renewed demand.

BTC is currently trading near $91,300, sitting just below the 50-week moving average (blue line), which now acts as resistance. A clean reclaim of this moving average—currently positioned around $95K–$97K—would significantly improve the technical outlook and align with on-chain signals calling for a recovery. Until then, the trend remains neutral-to-bearish on higher timeframes.

Volume during the recent bounce stands out, showing one of the strongest buying reactions since early 2025. This suggests that long-term holders and institutional buyers may be stepping in as the price approaches key value zones.

However, Bitcoin is not out of danger. Failures to break above $97K would leave the structure vulnerable to another leg down, potentially retesting $86K or even deeper liquidity pockets around $80K.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum is holding firmly above the $3,150 level as the market shifts into a more bullish phase after enduring weeks of heavy selling pressure and fear-driven liquidation. The recovery has sparked debate among analysts: some view the bounce as nothing more than a relief rally within a broader bearish trend, while others believe Ethereum may be building the foundation for a more sustained rebound.

A new CryptoQuant report offers one of the clearest insights. According to Ethereum data on Binance, the past several weeks have shown heightened volatility in the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) — a metric that tracks real-time buying and selling pressure. This volatility reflects sharp, rapid shifts in trader behavior as the market attempts to stabilize.

Although Ethereum remains in a downtrend from its August peak, recent CVD spikes point to the return of notable buying activity. However, the report emphasizes that these bursts of demand are sporadic and lack the sustained strength needed to confirm a full bullish reversal.

CVD Volatility Highlights Ongoing Battle Between Buyers and Sellers

According to the Arab Chain report, Ethereum’s CVD recently turned positive, coinciding with the price’s attempt to stabilize above the $3,100 level. This shift indicates fresh liquidity entering the market through short-term buy orders, suggesting that some traders are stepping in to accumulate during dips.

However, the sudden spikes and rapid pullbacks within the CVD reveal that the market remains locked in a strong tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. This volatility underscores the fact that Ethereum has not yet reached either temporal stability or a clear structural trend.

The report also highlights the importance of the 30-day correlation between price and CVD, which has held steady at around 0.6 despite lower price levels. This relatively high reading shows that liquidity flows continue to influence Ethereum’s price direction in a meaningful and consistent way. Even though buying pressure appears irregular, its recurring impact on price suggests that traders are still actively responding to market conditions.

Overall, this pattern reflects investors attempting to capitalize on volatility, especially as anticipation grows around potential liquidity inflows tied to upcoming network upgrades. Yet, Arab Chain stresses that without a more sustained accumulation phase and reduced short-term selling, Ethereum may struggle to generate a decisive upward movement.

Ethereum Attempts a Recovery but Faces Key Resistance

Ethereum’s latest price action shows a cautious recovery as ETH climbs back above the $3,150 level, but the chart reveals that the broader structure remains fragile. After a steep decline from the October highs near $4,500, ETH found support slightly above $2,700, where buyers stepped back in with increased volume—visible in the recent surge of green candles at the bottom of the chart. This reaction suggests renewed interest at lower levels, but not yet a decisive shift in trend.

The price is now pressing against the 100-day SMA (red line), a level that previously acted as support and has now flipped into resistance. Reclaiming this line would be an important step toward restoring bullish momentum. Above it, ETH faces another barrier at the 50-day SMA (blue line), which continues to slope downward, reflecting ongoing medium-term selling pressure.

Despite the rebound, volume remains inconsistent, indicating hesitation among market participants. ETH will need stronger follow-through buying to challenge the next resistance zone around $3,300–$3,350, a region aligned with previous breakdown levels.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has climbed back above $93,000 after enduring days of intense selling pressure, heightened volatility, and widespread market uncertainty. The recovery marks a significant shift in sentiment, but according to a new report from CryptoQuant, one signal stands out as the primary driver behind the rebound: institutional capital is quietly flowing back into the market.

The analysis highlights a key metric— the Coinbase Premium Index, long regarded as a reliable proxy for US institutional demand. Throughout November’s steep correction, the premium plunged deep into negative territory, revealing a stark imbalance: US spot buyers were far weaker than their offshore counterparts.

During this phase, as Bitcoin slid below $90,000, the sharp drop in the premium reflected clear risk-off positioning among US-regulated investors, many of whom stepped back or took profits amid rising macro uncertainty.

Now, with Bitcoin recovering key levels, the data shows early signs of renewed accumulation from US-based institutions. This subtle but meaningful shift suggests that the most conservative segment of the market—professional and regulated capital—may be positioning again after the correction. If this trend continues, the rebound above $93K could evolve into a much broader shift in market structure.

Institutional Catalysts Drive Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Higher

According to the CryptoQuant report, the narrative has shifted decisively. The Coinbase Premium Index has climbed back into positive territory, signaling renewed accumulation from US-based institutional and regulated investors. This shift coincides with a wave of major developments reshaping the global investment landscape.

Most notably, Charles Schwab, a $12 trillion asset manager, announced plans to offer Bitcoin and Ethereum trading in early 2026. This follows Vanguard’s market-moving reversal that opened access to spot crypto ETFs for more than 50 million conservative investors. These firms are not speculative players—they are the backbone of American retirement wealth.

At the same time, a powerful but less publicized catalyst is emerging overseas: Japan is moving toward formal approval of Bitcoin ETFs. Given the size of Japanese investment trusts, pension-linked products, and retail participation, early adoption could inject $3–10 billion of fresh demand. While no single region drives Bitcoin’s valuation alone, combined flows from the US, Europe, and Japan could easily deliver a mid-single-digit percentage uplift to BTC in the early phases of this expansion.

The broader takeaway is unmistakable: Bitcoin is transitioning from a niche risk asset into a globally standardized investment product. The return of a positive Coinbase Premium may be the market’s earliest confirmation that institutions—especially the most conservative ones—are positioning ahead of 2026.

Weekly Structure Shows Early Signs of Recovery

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a decisive rebound, with price pushing back above $93,000 after weeks of aggressive selling pressure. The recent wick down toward the green 100-week moving average (100W MA) marked a key moment: buyers stepped in precisely at long-term dynamic support, preventing a deeper breakdown toward the $80,000–$82,000 region.

This reaction confirms that long-term holders and institutional buyers are protecting this level, aligning with the recent return of positive signals from the Coinbase Premium Index.

Despite the rebound, the chart still shows Bitcoin facing overhead resistance. The 50-week MA sits just above the price, creating a supply zone between $97,000 and $102,000. This has historically acted as a trend-determining range; reclaiming it would shift momentum decisively back to the bulls. Until then, the market remains in a mid-cycle consolidation.

Volume behavior also supports the recovery narrative. The huge sell-volume spikes seen in November marked capitulation-like behavior, which often precedes trend reversals. The recent green weekly candle forming on rising buy volume suggests that demand is returning, aligning with improving liquidity conditions on major US and global exchanges.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum is demonstrating notable relative strength after reclaiming the $3,150 level and attempting to push higher, offering a refreshing shift in sentiment following weeks of intense selling pressure, fear, and market-wide uncertainty. As the broader crypto landscape begins to stabilize, ETH stands out as one of the assets showing early signs of recovery, drawing renewed attention from traders and long-term investors alike.

A key factor supporting this shift is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) reading for Ethereum on Binance, which is currently sitting around 0.22 while price trades near $3,100.

This level reflects a delicate equilibrium between fear and optimism, indicating that a significant portion of ETH holders remain in moderate profit. Importantly, NUPL has not yet moved into the “greed” zone typically seen in the late stages of a bullish cycle, suggesting that the market is far from overheated.

Instead, Ethereum appears to be transitioning into a more neutral, constructive phase where investors are cautiously optimistic but not excessively euphoric. This balance often forms the foundation for a healthier recovery, especially after a deep correction. If momentum continues building and NUPL remains stable or trends higher, ETH could be positioning itself for a stronger upside move in the coming weeks.

NUPL Signals a Transitional Market Phase

Arab Chain notes that Ethereum’s NUPL index experienced a significant rise between June and August, reaching levels far higher than today and reflecting strong profitability across the network during mid-2025. At that time, investor sentiment leaned toward optimism, supported by rising prices and improving macro conditions.

However, as Ethereum’s price began to decline steadily from October onward, unrealized profits started to shrink. This pushed NUPL down toward more neutral territory, signaling a shift in sentiment from elevated optimism to a more grounded, cautious outlook.

Crucially, NUPL has not fallen into negative territory, meaning the average ETH holder has not transitioned into unrealized losses. This is an important sign of underlying market strength. When investors remain in profit, they tend to be less motivated to sell aggressively at lower prices, reducing the risk of panic-driven capitulation and helping stabilize price action during corrections.

Taken together, these signals indicate that Ethereum is currently in a transitional phase. The market is neither euphoric nor fearful—rather, it is waiting for a decisive catalyst to define the next trend. As long as NUPL stays above 0.20, Ethereum retains a meaningful level of investor confidence, increasing the likelihood of a rebound if liquidity strengthens or positive fundamental developments emerge.

ETH Rebounds Strongly on the Weekly Chart

Ethereum’s weekly chart shows a powerful rebound as price surges back above the $3,150–$3,200 region, reclaiming a critical support band that had turned into resistance during the November sell-off. The long lower wick from last week’s candle confirms strong buy-side interest around the $2,700–$2,800 zone, an area that has historically acted as a major demand region during multi-month corrections.

ETH has now reclaimed the 100-week SMA, a key trend indicator currently positioned near $2,900, signaling renewed structural stability. The 200-week SMA, sitting comfortably lower, continues to reinforce the long-term uptrend. However, the 50-week SMA, which has flattened and now looms around the $3,350–$3,400 level, represents the next significant resistance level. ETH will need a decisive weekly close above this moving average to confirm a true shift back into bullish momentum.

Volume on the rebound is notably stronger than in previous consolidation phases, suggesting increased participation and growing confidence among market participants. However, ETH is not yet in the clear. The series of lower highs since the September peak forms a descending structure that must be broken for a sustained uptrend to resume.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum is showing notable relative strength as it reclaims the $3,150 level and attempts to push higher, signaling early signs of recovery after weeks dominated by heavy selling pressure, fear, and uncertainty. The broader market rebound has helped restore confidence, but ETH’s ability to outperform key altcoins highlights growing demand and improved sentiment around the asset.

Adding to the renewed optimism, fresh on-chain data from Lookonchain reveals a significant move from one of the market’s most recognized whales. During the rebound, whale 0xdECF deposited another 5,000 ETH—worth approximately $15.52 million—into Binance.

This wallet has become well-known for sending large batches of ETH to exchanges throughout the recent downturn, often coinciding with moments of heightened volatility and capitulation.

Its latest deposit suggests that the whale remains highly active and responsive to market conditions. While such movements can sometimes introduce uncertainty, they also highlight increasing liquidity and engagement from major holders. With price reclaiming key levels and whales repositioning, Ethereum enters a critical phase where sustained strength could confirm a broader shift in market structure.

Ethereum Whale Distribution Highlights Market Caution

According to Lookonchain, whale 0xdECF has sold 25,603 ETH—valued at approximately $85.44 million—across Binance and Galaxy Digital since October 28. Despite this substantial distribution, the wallet still holds 5,000 ETH (around $15.52 million), suggesting that the whale has not fully exited its position but has significantly reduced exposure during the recent market decline.

This pattern of behavior provides important insight into sentiment among large holders: while they are not abandoning Ethereum entirely, they are actively managing risk and responding to volatility more aggressively than usual.

Such persistent selling pressure from a large wallet often acts as a drag on price during periods of weakness, especially when market liquidity is thin. However, the fact that the whale continues to retain a meaningful position indicates an expectation of potential recovery—or at least a desire to remain strategically exposed to future upside.

Ethereum now finds itself in a critical phase. The asset has reclaimed key levels, but its mid-term structure remains highly sensitive to macro conditions and whale behavior. If selling from major holders slows and accumulation begins to outpace distribution, the recent rebound could solidify into a sustained trend. Otherwise, renewed sell flows could place Ethereum at risk of revisiting lower support zones.

ETH Reclaims Short-Term Momentum but Faces Heavy Resistance

Ethereum’s daily chart shows a clear improvement in momentum after reclaiming the $3,150–$3,200 region, but the broader structure remains fragile. The bounce from the $2,750–$2,850 support zone marked a decisive shift in buyer behavior, with strong lower wicks indicating aggressive demand. This rebound has pushed ETH back above key short-term levels, yet the asset still faces a challenging path forward.

Price is now approaching the 50-day SMA, currently sloping downward just above $3,250, which now acts as immediate resistance. This moving average has capped every rally since late October and remains the first major barrier for bulls to reclaim. Beyond it, the 100-day SMA around $3,450 and the 200-day SMA near $3,600 form a tight cluster of overhead resistance that defines the medium-term downtrend.

Volume on the recent bounce is stronger than previous attempts, signaling that buyers are showing more conviction compared to the mid-November attempts to recover. However, the overall trend still leans bearish until ETH can break above the 50-day SMA and begin closing daily candles over $3,300.

Ethereum sits in a critical inflection zone: holding above $3,100 strengthens the case for continued recovery, while rejection from the $3,250–$3,300 band could trigger another retest of the $2,800 region. The next few sessions will determine whether this rebound evolves into a deeper trend reversal.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

XRP has reclaimed the $2.10 level after a strong rebound across the broader crypto market, signaling renewed confidence following several days of fear, volatility, and sharp pullbacks. Analysts now see the potential for a sustained recovery as momentum returns and buyers show signs of stepping back in. The reclaim of this key level comes at a crucial moment, with traders closely watching whether XRP can build enough strength to challenge higher resistances in the coming sessions.

Adding to the renewed optimism, a new report from CryptoOnchain on CryptoQuant highlights a major spike in XRP Ledger Velocity, marking one of the strongest on-chain signals of 2025. On December 2, the Velocity metric surged to 0.0324, its highest value of the year. Velocity measures how frequently XRP moves across the network, serving as a direct indicator of economic activity, liquidity, and transactional demand.

Such a dramatic rise in Velocity shows that XRP is circulating rapidly among users rather than sitting dormant in wallets. It reflects increased participation from traders, active holders, and possibly even whales, pointing toward heightened engagement on the network.

Network Activity Surges as Velocity Signals Peak 2025 Engagement

According to the CryptoOnchain report, the latest spike in XRP Ledger Velocity indicates a dramatic shift in how XRP is being used across the network. Instead of sitting idle in cold wallets or being held for long-term storage, XRP is rapidly changing hands among market participants. This level of circulation suggests that traders, active users, and possibly whales are driving significantly higher transaction volume than usual.

CryptoOnchain explains that such a strong jump in Velocity typically signals high liquidity and deep participation across the ecosystem. When coins move this quickly, it means the asset is being used in real economic activity—whether for trading, transfers, arbitrage, or strategic repositioning by large holders. This type of behavior often aligns with periods of heightened volatility, increased speculation, or structural shifts in market sentiment.

Regardless of whether price trends upward or downward, the data confirms that the XRP Ledger is entering one of its most active phases of 2025. User engagement has reached a yearly peak, with more participants interacting with the network and more coins circulating than at any point this year.

Such elevated activity often precedes or accompanies major market movements, reinforcing the idea that XRP is transitioning into a more dynamic and liquid phase as the recovery unfolds.

XRP Faces Heavy Resistance in a Weakening Daily Structure

XRP’s daily chart shows an attempted rebound toward the $2.15–$2.20 range, but the broader structure remains pressured by a persistent downtrend. After the sharp sell-off in late October and November—which pushed XRP below the $2.00 level for the first time in months—the asset is now trying to stabilize. The recent bounce reflects short-term buying interest, yet the price still trades below all major moving averages, signaling that bulls have not fully regained control.

The 50-day SMA is currently sloping downward near $2.35, acting as immediate resistance. The 100-day SMA around $2.55 and the 200-day SMA near $2.60 form a stacked barrier above price, confirming a structurally bearish setup. For XRP to build meaningful upside momentum, it must reclaim at least the 50-day SMA and flip it into support—something it has failed to do since late September.

Support remains stable around $2.00–$2.05, where buyers have defended the level repeatedly with long lower wicks. A breakdown below this area could expose XRP to deeper losses toward $1.80. Meanwhile, volume remains muted, suggesting the rebound lacks strong conviction.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com