Polymarket is recruiting staff for an internal market-making team that would trade against its own customers, mirroring a controversial feature already used by rival Kalshi that has drawn criticism and legal challenges.

According to Bloomberg, the New York-based prediction market startup has approached traders, including sports bettors, to join the new unit, people familiar with the matter said, requesting anonymity because the plans remain private.

Polymarket declined to comment on the recruitment effort.

The move comes as the platform prepares its full U.S. relaunch after securing regulatory clearance from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, having paid a $1.4 million penalty in 2022 for operating an unregistered derivatives exchange.

Kalshi’s Market-Making Unit Faces Legal Scrutiny

Kalshi already operates an in-house trading arm, Kalshi Trading, which places bids on the exchange and effectively takes opposing positions to customers’ bets.

Company executives have defended the unit as necessary to create liquidity and improve the user experience.

Still, critics argue it creates inherent conflicts of interest and makes Kalshi resemble a traditional sportsbook rather than a neutral peer-to-peer platform.

Some are now claiming that the company is a gambling company and not a prediction company.

“Let’s just call a spade a spade, it’s gambling, lots of things are gambling,” a X user said.

it has been decided by the courts
https://t.co/lU0S6XWrkA

— Martin Shkreli (@MartinShkreli) December 5, 2025

A proposed class action lawsuit filed last month alleges that Kalshi Trading sets betting lines that disadvantage customers, claiming “consumers place bets on Kalshi, they face off against money provided by a sophisticated market maker on the other side of the ledger.“

Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara dismissed the lawsuit as a “pure smear campaign” on social media.

She stated that Kalshi Trading operates unprofitably and receives “no preferential access or treatment.”

However, the legal challenge shows mounting concerns about whether prediction markets function as advertised, neutral platforms where users with differing opinions trade directly with each other.

1. Rebrand gambling as asset allocation
2. Rebrand sportsbook as truth engine
3. Rebrand bets as predictions
4. Spin up in-house market maker to c̶o̶m̶p̶e̶t̶e̶ collaborate with c̶u̶s̶t̶o̶m̶e̶r̶s̶ fellow investors for the greater good

It's really noble if you think about it. https://t.co/UQx67fg3DI

— Harry Crane (@HarryDCrane) December 5, 2025

Push for Market-Making Comes Amid Rapid U.S. Expansion

Polymarket’s decision to build an internal trading desk arrives as the company executes its return to American markets following years offshore.

In December, the CFTC issued a no-action letter covering QCX LLC and QC Clearing LLC, two entities Polymarket acquired earlier in 2025 for $112 million to gain licensed designated contract market status and regulated clearing capabilities.

The agency granted temporary relief from certain swap data reporting requirements, allowing the platform to operate within the same framework governing federally supervised U.S. trading venues.

Prediction market platform Polymarket says it has received an Amended Order of Designation from the CFTC.#Crypto #CFTChttps://t.co/H44tIIxPaz

— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) November 25, 2025

Founder and CEO Shayne Coplan confirmed receiving “the green light to go live in the USA” and credited CFTC staff for completing the process in record time.

The regulatory clearance caps a lengthy journey that intensified in November 2024 when the FBI raided Coplan’s Manhattan residence and seized electronic devices as part of an investigation into whether Americans continued accessing the site through VPNs despite the 2022 ban.

Despite being barred from U.S. operations since 2022, Polymarket expanded aggressively overseas, recording roughly $6 billion in wagers during the first half of 2025 alone.

The platform gained global attention during the 2024 presidential election cycle, as its markets closely tracked Donald Trump’s odds of winning.

Market Makers and Growing Institutional Interest

Prediction markets rely heavily on market makers willing to take less popular trades, as the platforms match buyers with sellers on binary yes-or-no contracts.

Both Polymarket and Kalshi have offered incentives rewarding heavy users who provide liquidity, while a small number of traditional financial trading firms, including Susquehanna International Group and Jump Trading, have begun serving as external market makers on Kalshi.

@GalaxyDigital is in talks to provide liquidity on Polymarket and Kalshi, reflecting the growing momentum of prediction markets among retail traders and Wall Street.#PredictionMarkets #Galaxy https://t.co/2wgytQSkZ4

— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) November 25, 2025

Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital is currently in talks with both platforms to become a liquidity provider, with Novogratz telling Bloomberg that the firm is “doing some small-scale experimenting with market-making on prediction markets.“

The broader debate centers on whether prediction markets genuinely differ from traditional gambling operations.

During a public appearance last month, Coplan called conventional sportsbooks a “scam” that “rip off the consumer,” positioning Polymarket as a transparent alternative where users trade against each other rather than facing house odds designed to extract profits.

The post Polymarket to Launch In-House Trading Desk That Bets Against Users: Report appeared first on Cryptonews.

MetaMask is expanding its mobile wallet into a wider trading hub with a new integration built around Polymarket. MetaMask has rolled out “MetaMask Prediction Markets,” a feature that lets users trade the outcomes of real-world events directly in the mobile…

Polymarket is preparing to relaunch in the United States after receiving regulatory clearance from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

This marks the platform’s official return to the American market after nearly three years of regulatory exclusion.

On Wednesday, the CFTC confirmed it had issued a no-action letter covering QCX LLC, a designated contract market, and QC Clearing LLC, a derivatives clearing organization.

Both entities were acquired by Polymarket earlier this year as part of its plan to re-enter the U.S. legally.

.@CFTC Staff Issues No-Action Letter Regarding Event Contracts: https://t.co/uglKQN5EX4

— CFTC (@CFTC) September 3, 2025

The agency’s Division of Market Oversight and Division of Clearing and Risk issued a no-action letter granting temporary relief from certain swap data reporting and recordkeeping requirements tied to event contracts, including binary options and variable payout transactions.

With CFTC Nod and QCX Deal, Polymarket Prepares U.S. Relaunch

Under the terms of the letter, the CFTC said it would not recommend enforcement action against the two entities or their participants for failing to comply with specific swap-related reporting obligations, so long as the activity falls within narrow conditions outlined in the approval.

Additionally, the relief does not exempt the companies from broader regulatory compliance but removes a key barrier to launching compliant prediction markets in the U.S.

Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan confirmed the development in a post on X, stating that the platform had received “the green light to go live in the USA.”

Polymarket has been given the green light to go live in the USA by the @CFTC.

Credit to the Commission and Staff for their impressive work. This process has been accomplished in record timing.

Stay tuned https://t.co/NVziTixpqO

— Shayne Coplan (@shayne_coplan) September 3, 2025

He credited the CFTC and its staff for completing the process in what he described as record time, adding that the company would share further updates soon.

The clearance caps a long regulatory journey for Polymarket. In 2022, the CFTC fined the platform $1.4 million for operating an unregistered derivatives exchange and ordered it to block U.S. users.

While Polymarket officially exited the U.S. market, regulators later investigated whether Americans continued accessing the site through VPNs.

That probe escalated in November 2024, when the FBI raided Coplan’s Manhattan residence and seized electronic devices.

FBI agents have reportedly seized Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan’s phone and electronics, following a raid at his Manhattan residence.#FBIraid #Polymarket #ShayneCoplanhttps://t.co/FoAECymNsu

— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) November 14, 2024

In July, both the Department of Justice and the CFTC closed their investigations into Polymarket without pursuing further enforcement action.

The conclusion of those probes removed the final legal overhang blocking Polymarket’s U.S. return.

Days after the investigations ended, Polymarket acquired Florida-based derivatives exchange QCX and its clearing arm QC Clearing for $112 million.

@Polymarket has acquired Florida-based derivatives exchange QCX and its affiliated clearinghouse QC Clearing, together known as QCEX.#Polymarket #QCEXhttps://t.co/HjbqfUxhSD

— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) July 22, 2025

The acquisition gave Polymarket a licensed designated contract market and a regulated clearinghouse, allowing it to operate within the same framework as federally supervised U.S. trading venues.

Despite the U.S. ban, Polymarket expanded rapidly overseas. In the first half of 2025 alone, users placed roughly $6 billion in wagers on outcomes.

Polymarket Quietly Begins U.S. Trading After Receiving CFTC Designation

The platform gained global attention during the 2024 U.S. election cycle after its markets closely tracked Donald Trump’s winning odds.

In November, Polymarket disclosed that it had received an amended designation order from the CFTC, formally allowing it to operate as a regulated U.S. exchange.

Prediction market platform Polymarket says it has received an Amended Order of Designation from the CFTC.#Crypto #CFTChttps://t.co/H44tIIxPaz

— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) November 25, 2025

The approval allows intermediated trading through futures commission merchants and allows brokerages to onboard customers directly, placing Polymarket within the same regulatory framework as other federally supervised trading venues.

The company also said it has implemented upgraded market surveillance, clearing procedures, and regulatory reporting systems ahead of a full public relaunch.

The platform has also continued to attract institutional and political attention. In August, Donald Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board after his venture firm, 1789 Capital, invested tens of millions of dollars into the company.

Polymarket has received investment from @1789Capital, with @DonaldJTrumpJr joining its advisory board. #Trup #polymarkethttps://t.co/71jO0emJHh

— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) August 27, 2025

Polymarket has also entered a partnership with Elon Musk’s X platform to integrate prediction markets with xAI’s Grok chatbot.

By November, Coplan confirmed that Polymarket had begun live testing of its U.S. exchange in a limited beta, quietly onboarding selected users and matching real trades as it completed final regulatory steps.

More recently, the platform introduced a 4% annualized yield on certain long-term political and geopolitical contracts, including markets tied to the 2028 U.S. presidential election.

The post Polymarket Is Back: Crypto Prediction Giant Relaunches in U.S. With CFTC Green Light appeared first on Cryptonews.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin And Crypto Prediction Platform Polymarket Rolls Out US App Today After CFTC Approval

Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market platform, has officially launched a U.S.-focused app following approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). 

The move lifts nearly four years of restrictions preventing American users from participating in its blockchain-powered prediction markets.

Initially available in the App Store under the sports category, the app allows U.S. users to place bets on sports events, with plans to expand into other markets including proposition bets and election wagers. 

The app is opening access gradually, inviting users from a previously established waitlist, though not all applicants have received invitations yet.

Polymarket bypassed the traditional, multi-year CFTC registration process by acquiring QCEX, an already-registered platform, for $112 million in July. 

The company received a no-action letter from the CFTC in September, allowing it to resume operations legally in the U.S. after its 2022 settlement over unregistered event contracts.

Polymarket’s CFTC approval

In November, Polymarket secured an Amended Order of Designation from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing it to operate as an intermediated trading platform under the full set of federal rules for U.S. exchanges. 

The approval enabled the platform to onboard brokerages and customers directly, allowing users to trade through futures commission merchants (FCMs) and access traditional custody, reporting, and market infrastructure.

To comply with the CFTC’s requirements, Polymarket upgraded its systems, introducing enhanced market surveillance, supervision policies, clearing procedures, and Part 16 regulatory reporting. 

The platform remains fully subject to the Commodity Exchange Act and other CFTC regulations, including self-regulatory obligations.

The platform had been barred from operating in the U.S. in 2022 after offering unregistered derivatives contracts. Its return followed the acquisition of QCEX, a regulated contract market and clearinghouse, for $112 million, which enabled the company to bypass a lengthy registration process.

 Earlier this year, the platform also introduced support for direct bitcoin deposits, allowing users to fund accounts with BTC alongside stablecoins like USDC and USDT.

The platform has attracted significant investor interest. In November, reports indicated that Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner of the New York Stock Exchange, is considering a $2 billion investment that could value Polymarket between $8 billion and $10 billion. 

Earlier funding discussions reportedly placed the company’s valuation at $12–15 billion. Investors also include 1789 Capital, backed by Donald Trump Jr.

Polymarket’s competitors, such as Kalshi, are also expanding, with Kalshi recently Kalshi raising $1 billion at a $11 billion valuation, doubling value in under two months

This post Bitcoin And Crypto Prediction Platform Polymarket Rolls Out US App Today After CFTC Approval first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Prediction markets platform Kalshi has secured a major media breakthrough after signing a partnership with CNN, making the company the network’s official prediction markets partner while closing a $1 billion funding round at an $11 billion valuation.

Under the agreement, Kalshi’s real-time market data will be used inside CNN’s newsroom to support reporting on politics, economics, and major cultural events.

CNN staff will have access to Kalshi’s probability data, which reflects how users price future outcomes based on trading activity.

CNN to Launch Kalshi-Powered Live Prediction Ticker

The network will also introduce a live, Kalshi-powered ticker during coverage segments that use market data.

The integration will be overseen by CNN Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten, whose work focuses on applying data-driven insights to political and social reporting.

Kalshi said the partnership is designed to provide viewers with clearer signals on emerging trends by showing how markets are reacting in real time.

The announcement comes as Kalshi confirms a $1 billion Series E funding round led by crypto-focused investment firm Paradigm, with participation from Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, and ARK Invest.

The round more than doubles Kalshi’s previous $5 billion valuation from an October raise.

Kalshi chief executive Tarek Mansour said markets are becoming a new way to measure public expectations.

“Kalshi is replacing debate and opinion with markets and accuracy,” he said, adding that users increasingly want information reflected through price action rather than speculation.

Kalshi raised $1B at an $11B valuation.

A decade ago, only a few thousand people knew what a prediction market was.

Eighteen months ago, most prediction markets were banned – until we overcame the government to set them free.

Over the past seven years, our community has opened… pic.twitter.com/hGDkYxkSlh

— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) December 2, 2025

Kalshi Hits Record $4.5B Monthly Volume

The funding follows a surge in activity across prediction platforms. According to Token Terminal data cited by the company, Kalshi posted record trading volume of $4.54 billion in November, beating October’s $4.49 billion.

Kalshi said weekly volumes are now exceeding $1 billion, representing growth of more than 1,000% since 2024.

Its closest competitor, Polymarket, also recorded a strong November, hitting a monthly total of $3.76 billion after crossing $3 billion in October.

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan recently said prediction markets are among the most reliable indicators for forecasting real-world outcomes.

As reported, Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital is in talks with Polymarket and Kalshi about becoming a liquidity provider, as on-chain betting on real-world events draws more attention from both retail traders and Wall Street.

Galaxy, which has built its brand around providing crypto infrastructure and services to institutional clients, would act as a market-maker on the platforms, posting regular bids and offers to deepen trading.

Meanwhile, Kalshi is currently facing a nationwide class action lawsuit alleging the platform operates like an unlicensed sportsbook and misrepresents pricing advantages versus traditional betting markets. The company has not admitted wrongdoing.

The post Kalshi Becomes CNN’s Official Prediction Market Partner After Raising $1B appeared first on Cryptonews.

The latest funding comes less than two months after Kalshi announced that it raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation.

Bitcoin Magazine

Polymarket Receives Approval From CFTC For Official U.S. Return

Polymarket, the world’s largest crypto-based prediction market, announced today that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued an Amended Order of Designation. 

The approval allows Polymarket to operate an intermediated trading platform under the full set of federal rules for U.S. exchanges.

The move enables the market to onboard brokerages and customers directly. Users can now trade through futures commission merchants (FCMs) and access traditional custody, reporting, and market infrastructure.

“People rely on Polymarket because we provide clarity where there is confusion,” said Shayne Coplan, the founder and CEO of Polymarket. “This approval lets us operate with the maturity and transparency the U.S. regulatory framework demands. We’re grateful for the constructive engagement with the CFTC and look forward to leading as a regulated exchange.”

Polymarket has upgraded its systems in line with the new order. It now has enhanced surveillance, market supervision policies, clearing procedures, and Part 16 regulatory reporting. 

Additional rules and processes for intermediated trading will be implemented before the official launch. Polymarket remains subject to the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC regulations, including self-regulatory obligations.

Polymarket was barred in 2022 for running an unregistered derivatives exchange but has returned to the U.S. after acquiring QCX, a regulated contract market and clearinghouse.

Polymarket now accepts bitcoin

Earlier this year, the platform also announced support for direct bitcoin deposits. Users can now fund accounts with BTC alongside stablecoins like USDC, USDT, and other crypto. 

In other news, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner of the New York Stock Exchange, is considering a $2 billion investment in Polymarket. The deal could value the platform between $8 billion and $10 billion, according to The Wall Street Journal.

In October, the company was reportedly exploring a funding round at a $12–15 billion valuation.

Shayne Coplan, 27, has become the youngest self-made billionaire following the investment. Just a few years ago, he was an NYU dropout building the company from his bathroom. 

The platform has also drawn investors such as 1789 Capital, backed by Donald Trump Jr., and acquired derivatives exchange QCEX for $112 million, gaining a CFTC license in the process.

One of it’s competitors, Kalshi, another major prediction market accepting bitcoin, recently raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation and plans to expand access to over 140 countries, with annualized trading volume soaring toward $50 billion. 

This post Polymarket Receives Approval From CFTC For Official U.S. Return first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

The quickly growing prediction betting market raised fresh capital from Sequoia and CapitalG, according to someone familiar with the deal.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Price Prediction Markets Are Flashing a Signal

Bitcoin Price Prediction Markets have become an emerging tool for gauging sentiment and price expectations in real time. Traders on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi wager on Bitcoin’s future price outcomes, producing aggregated odds that reflect where market participants believe BTC is heading. As trading volumes expand and odds shift with volatility, these prediction markets are gaining credibility as a forward-looking sentiment gauge for the Bitcoin economy.

Extracting Bitcoin Price Alpha

In early October, traders on Polymarket were betting that BTC would close 2025 around $144,000, but as volatility picked up and BTC dipped, that forecast has since slipped closer to $129,000. These odds update in real time, meaning they reflect the collective positioning and sentiment of thousands of participants and millions of dollars.

By tracking the ratio between BTC’s spot price and the predicted year-end price, clear sentiment trends begin to emerge. When this ratio spikes, meaning the spot price trades well below the market’s forecast, it often reflects a period of excessive fear or undervaluation. Conversely, when BTC trades close to the predicted price, the market tends to be overheated and nearer to local peaks.

Normalizing this data to account for how prediction volatility narrows as the year progresses gives an even clearer signal. The top percentile of days, where the ratio shows the widest gap between prediction and spot, has historically aligned with market lows, and vice-versa for the lowest percentile of days aligning with local highs.

Comparing Bitcoin Price Prediction Accuracy

Despite the impressive 91% accuracy figure often cited by Polymarket, deeper analysis shows that this number is inflated by markets with extreme odds — scenarios like “Bitcoin to hit $250,000 by year-end,” which overwhelmingly resolve to “no.” Removing these outliers gives a more realistic accuracy rate closer to 71% for BTC-related prediction markets, still notable but far from predictive certainty.

Interestingly, when comparing the standardized ratio of prediction-market expectations to BTC’s actual price, the data moves inversely to the Fear and Greed Index. When fear dominates, the ratio signals that traders are undervaluing Bitcoin, while periods of extreme greed coincide with markets pricing BTC near or above forecast levels. This overlap suggests that prediction markets, much like sentiment gauges, can help identify when emotions in the market have swung too far in one direction.

Bitcoin Price Trading Implications

Used alone, prediction markets don’t provide a consistent trading edge — their crowd-based probabilities are efficient but not omniscient. However, when combined with sentiment indicators like the Fear and Greed Index or on-chain data, they can highlight asymmetry in market perception.

Historically, strategies that accumulate BTC during extreme fear and reduce exposure during euphoria have outperformed a simple buy-and-hold approach. When prediction markets align with those same fear periods, the data strengthens the case for opportunistic accumulation.

Conclusion: Reading Bitcoin Price Signals

Prediction markets are not crystal balls, but they reflect the aggregated conviction of thousands of informed participants putting real money on the line. While not perfectly accurate, their probabilities track human sentiment remarkably well. When these odds diverge sharply from spot price — especially in periods of widespread fear — they may offer a data-driven contrarian signal worth paying attention to.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Bitcoin Price Prediction Markets Are Flashing a Signal first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.