Ethereum has retraced from the $3,240 level and is now testing the $3,150 zone as support, a key area that traders are closely watching. Bulls are attempting to defend this level after a modest rebound, but uncertainty remains high as the market tries to establish direction following weeks of volatility and aggressive selling pressure. While some analysts view this consolidation as the early stages of a recovery, others warn that ETH may still be vulnerable to deeper pullbacks if momentum fails to strengthen.

According to top analyst Darkfost, Ethereum’s recent price action is being shaped by a notable shift in market structure. Over the past few days, spot volumes have continued to decline, even as the price attempted a small recovery. This weakening in spot activity reduces the impact of actual buying and selling on the underlying asset, making futures markets increasingly influential in dictating short-term price direction.

As Darkfost explains, when spot volume thins out, futures often become the dominant driver of volatility. This dynamic can accelerate both upside and downside moves, depending on traders’ positioning. With Ethereum now sitting at a critical support level, the market awaits clearer signals to determine whether this rebound can evolve into a sustained recovery or merely represents a temporary pause in the downtrend.

Futures-Driven Momentum Raises the Stakes for Ethereum

Darkfost expands on this dynamic by noting that when spot volumes weaken to the extent seen over the past few days, the risk of heightened volatility increases sharply. Thin spot liquidity means fewer buy and sell orders are available to absorb sudden moves, allowing futures-driven momentum to exert an outsized influence on price. This environment often produces sharper swings and rapid directional shifts, as leveraged traders and algorithmic strategies dominate short-term market behavior.

For now, the futures market is tilting upward, providing a constructive force that is helping Ethereum hold above the $3,150 support zone. Darkfost emphasizes that this upward pressure from futures could work in the bulls’ favor, as volatility—if it expands to the upside—may push the spot market to follow the same trajectory.

In other words, a sustained futures-led rebound could act as the spark needed for a broader recovery, especially if spot buyers gain confidence and begin re-entering the market.

However, this setup cuts both ways. Without stronger spot participation, any reversal in futures positioning could quickly translate into accelerated downside pressure. For now, Ethereum sits in a delicate phase where volatility is both a potential catalyst and a potential threat, making the next few sessions crucial for determining the market’s short-term direction.

ETH Weekly Structure Holds Key Support

Ethereum’s weekly chart shows a market attempting to stabilize after a steep downturn from the $4,500 region. ETH has rebounded toward $3,140, reclaiming its 100-week moving average (green line) — a historically important support level that often defines the boundary between mid-term bullish and bearish phases. This bounce signals renewed demand at a critical zone, especially after the strong wick rejection seen near $2,700, where buyers stepped in aggressively.

However, Ethereum still faces meaningful resistance overhead. The 50-week moving average (blue line), now hovering near $3,400–$3,500, has flipped into resistance and remains the next major hurdle for bulls. A successful reclaim of this zone would materially improve ETH’s technical structure and open the door to a challenge of higher levels. Until then, the weekly trend remains neutral to slightly bearish.

Volume offers an encouraging signal: the recent rebound occurred with a noticeable uptick in buying activity compared to prior weeks, suggesting strengthened interest at these lower levels. Yet the broader structure shows a pattern of lower highs since August, meaning ETH must demonstrate follow-through to avoid slipping back into deeper consolidation.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is holding firmly above the $92,000 level after several days of relief and a stronger-than-expected rebound across the market. Yet despite the positive price action, analysts remain deeply divided. Some interpret this move as a classic relief rally within a broader downtrend, warning that the macro structure still favors a deeper correction.

Others see the recent recovery as the first sign that Bitcoin may be stabilizing and preparing for another bullish phase. The uncertainty reflects the conflicting signals coming from both derivatives and spot markets.

Adding fuel to the discussion, new on-chain data from Arkham shows that Matrixport withdrew 3,805 BTC—worth approximately $352.5 million—from Binance within the last 24 hours. This is a significant development, as Matrixport is one of Asia’s largest crypto financial service platforms, founded by Jihan Wu, the co-founder of Bitmain. The firm provides institutional-grade investment products, lending, trading, and asset management solutions to high-net-worth clients and funds across the region.

Large withdrawals from exchanges by institutions like Matrixport often signal accumulation, reduced selling pressure, or repositioning for custody and long-term holding. Combined with Bitcoin’s stabilization above $92K, this data adds an important layer of complexity to the current market outlook.

Institutional Positioning and a Changing Macro Landscape

Matrixport’s withdrawal of 3,805 BTC from Binance signals a potentially meaningful shift in institutional positioning. Large entities rarely move this size of capital without intention. Such withdrawals typically imply reduced selling pressure and a preference for custody over exchange liquidity, often interpreted as quiet accumulation.

For a firm managing billions in client assets, reallocating Bitcoin off exchanges suggests growing confidence in medium-term price stability or an expectation of improving market conditions.

This move arrives at a pivotal moment in the global macro environment. The Federal Reserve has ended Quantitative Tightening (QT), marking a major transition from liquidity withdrawal to a more accommodative stance. Historically, the end of QT has preceded periods of asset reflation, as systemic liquidity begins to stabilize.

At the same time, Japanese bond yields have surged, signaling stress in one of the world’s most influential funding markets. A spike in Japanese yields often triggers global liquidity adjustments, particularly through the carry trade, which can ultimately redirect capital toward risk assets—including Bitcoin.

Additionally, markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon, further easing financial conditions. Lower rates weaken the dollar, reduce funding costs, and typically stimulate inflows into alternative and high-beta assets.

In this environment of softening monetary policy and rising liquidity, Matrixport’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation could reflect growing institutional conviction that the worst of the downturn is behind us—and that Bitcoin may be entering a more favorable macro phase.

BTC Price Analysis: Testing Recovery Momentum

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the market attempting to stabilize after the sharp decline that pushed price toward the mid-$80,000s. The rebound into the $91K–$93K zone marks the first meaningful recovery attempt, but the structure still reflects caution.

BTC remains below the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, which have both started to slope downward, signaling that the broader trend has not yet shifted back in favor of the bulls. Until Bitcoin reclaims these moving averages with strong volume, the market will likely see this move as a relief rally rather than a confirmed reversal.

Price is currently consolidating above the 200-day SMA, a level that often acts as a long-term trend gauge. Holding this region is essential; losing it would risk a deeper drop toward earlier support zones near $82K–$84K. Volume activity during the bounce shows some improvement, yet it remains far below the levels seen during the late-October peak, suggesting that buyers are cautious and large players are not fully engaged.

The chart also shows a clear lower-high structure forming since September, confirming the bearish pressure that has dominated the last several weeks. For sentiment to shift decisively, BTC must break above $95K and rebuild momentum toward the psychological $100K mark. Until then, volatility and hesitation remain the defining features of this recovery.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is trading around $91,000 after a minor dip earlier today, and uncertainty continues to dominate sentiment. The market sits at a crossroads: a small but vocal group of analysts argues that the recent correction served as a healthy reset before a continuation of the broader uptrend, while the majority of traders believe the first leg of a new bear market is already underway. With price action still showing hesitation, the debate grows louder by the day.

According to top analyst Darkfost, a critical threshold will help determine Bitcoin’s next major direction. He highlights the importance of the Realized Price of the youngest Long-Term Holder (LTH) band, which currently sits at $96,956. This metric marks the transition point between short-term and long-term holders and is viewed as a psychological and structural barrier for market stability.

Reclaiming this level would push these young LTHs back into a comfortable profit zone, reducing their incentive to sell and helping to restore confidence across the market. Until Bitcoin closes decisively above $97K, Darkfost warns that caution is warranted, as volatility remains high and the risk of further downside persists.

Why the $97K Threshold Matters for Bitcoin’s Next Major Move

Darkfost emphasizes that the $96,956–$97,000 zone plays a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin’s next phase. This level represents the Realized Price of the youngest Long-Term Holder band, meaning it reflects the average cost basis of investors who recently transitioned from short-term to long-term holding behavior. When Bitcoin trades below this threshold, these holders sit at an unrealized loss, increasing the likelihood of panic selling and adding pressure to the market.

Breaking above this zone would flip sentiment for this group almost immediately. Darkfost explains that reclaiming $97K would place these investors back into a comfortable profit position, restoring their confidence and expectations of potential gains. Once this psychological weight lifts, these holders typically choose to keep accumulating rather than selling, which naturally brings more stability to the market.

However, he cautions that Bitcoin’s failure to close above $97,000 keeps the risk tilted to the downside. As long as the price remains below this band, the market stays vulnerable, and volatility may continue.

Even if BTC successfully reclaims $97K, Darkfost reminds that this is only the first step. The market would still need stronger structural confirmation—such as reclaiming key moving averages and rebuilding demand—to validate a true bullish reversal that could eventually lead to a new all-time high.

BTC Weekly Structure Shows Early Signs of Stabilization

Bitcoin’s weekly chart reflects a market trying to stabilize after a sharp multi-week correction that dragged the price from above $115,000 down toward the mid-$80,000s. The latest weekly candle shows a firm rebound from the 100-week moving average (green line), now acting as dynamic support around the $84,000–$86,000 region. This level historically attracts long-term buyers, and the strong wick rejection confirms renewed demand.

BTC is currently trading near $91,300, sitting just below the 50-week moving average (blue line), which now acts as resistance. A clean reclaim of this moving average—currently positioned around $95K–$97K—would significantly improve the technical outlook and align with on-chain signals calling for a recovery. Until then, the trend remains neutral-to-bearish on higher timeframes.

Volume during the recent bounce stands out, showing one of the strongest buying reactions since early 2025. This suggests that long-term holders and institutional buyers may be stepping in as the price approaches key value zones.

However, Bitcoin is not out of danger. Failures to break above $97K would leave the structure vulnerable to another leg down, potentially retesting $86K or even deeper liquidity pockets around $80K.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum is holding firmly above the $3,150 level as the market shifts into a more bullish phase after enduring weeks of heavy selling pressure and fear-driven liquidation. The recovery has sparked debate among analysts: some view the bounce as nothing more than a relief rally within a broader bearish trend, while others believe Ethereum may be building the foundation for a more sustained rebound.

A new CryptoQuant report offers one of the clearest insights. According to Ethereum data on Binance, the past several weeks have shown heightened volatility in the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) — a metric that tracks real-time buying and selling pressure. This volatility reflects sharp, rapid shifts in trader behavior as the market attempts to stabilize.

Although Ethereum remains in a downtrend from its August peak, recent CVD spikes point to the return of notable buying activity. However, the report emphasizes that these bursts of demand are sporadic and lack the sustained strength needed to confirm a full bullish reversal.

CVD Volatility Highlights Ongoing Battle Between Buyers and Sellers

According to the Arab Chain report, Ethereum’s CVD recently turned positive, coinciding with the price’s attempt to stabilize above the $3,100 level. This shift indicates fresh liquidity entering the market through short-term buy orders, suggesting that some traders are stepping in to accumulate during dips.

However, the sudden spikes and rapid pullbacks within the CVD reveal that the market remains locked in a strong tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. This volatility underscores the fact that Ethereum has not yet reached either temporal stability or a clear structural trend.

The report also highlights the importance of the 30-day correlation between price and CVD, which has held steady at around 0.6 despite lower price levels. This relatively high reading shows that liquidity flows continue to influence Ethereum’s price direction in a meaningful and consistent way. Even though buying pressure appears irregular, its recurring impact on price suggests that traders are still actively responding to market conditions.

Overall, this pattern reflects investors attempting to capitalize on volatility, especially as anticipation grows around potential liquidity inflows tied to upcoming network upgrades. Yet, Arab Chain stresses that without a more sustained accumulation phase and reduced short-term selling, Ethereum may struggle to generate a decisive upward movement.

Ethereum Attempts a Recovery but Faces Key Resistance

Ethereum’s latest price action shows a cautious recovery as ETH climbs back above the $3,150 level, but the chart reveals that the broader structure remains fragile. After a steep decline from the October highs near $4,500, ETH found support slightly above $2,700, where buyers stepped back in with increased volume—visible in the recent surge of green candles at the bottom of the chart. This reaction suggests renewed interest at lower levels, but not yet a decisive shift in trend.

The price is now pressing against the 100-day SMA (red line), a level that previously acted as support and has now flipped into resistance. Reclaiming this line would be an important step toward restoring bullish momentum. Above it, ETH faces another barrier at the 50-day SMA (blue line), which continues to slope downward, reflecting ongoing medium-term selling pressure.

Despite the rebound, volume remains inconsistent, indicating hesitation among market participants. ETH will need stronger follow-through buying to challenge the next resistance zone around $3,300–$3,350, a region aligned with previous breakdown levels.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has climbed back above $93,000 after enduring days of intense selling pressure, heightened volatility, and widespread market uncertainty. The recovery marks a significant shift in sentiment, but according to a new report from CryptoQuant, one signal stands out as the primary driver behind the rebound: institutional capital is quietly flowing back into the market.

The analysis highlights a key metric— the Coinbase Premium Index, long regarded as a reliable proxy for US institutional demand. Throughout November’s steep correction, the premium plunged deep into negative territory, revealing a stark imbalance: US spot buyers were far weaker than their offshore counterparts.

During this phase, as Bitcoin slid below $90,000, the sharp drop in the premium reflected clear risk-off positioning among US-regulated investors, many of whom stepped back or took profits amid rising macro uncertainty.

Now, with Bitcoin recovering key levels, the data shows early signs of renewed accumulation from US-based institutions. This subtle but meaningful shift suggests that the most conservative segment of the market—professional and regulated capital—may be positioning again after the correction. If this trend continues, the rebound above $93K could evolve into a much broader shift in market structure.

Institutional Catalysts Drive Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Higher

According to the CryptoQuant report, the narrative has shifted decisively. The Coinbase Premium Index has climbed back into positive territory, signaling renewed accumulation from US-based institutional and regulated investors. This shift coincides with a wave of major developments reshaping the global investment landscape.

Most notably, Charles Schwab, a $12 trillion asset manager, announced plans to offer Bitcoin and Ethereum trading in early 2026. This follows Vanguard’s market-moving reversal that opened access to spot crypto ETFs for more than 50 million conservative investors. These firms are not speculative players—they are the backbone of American retirement wealth.

At the same time, a powerful but less publicized catalyst is emerging overseas: Japan is moving toward formal approval of Bitcoin ETFs. Given the size of Japanese investment trusts, pension-linked products, and retail participation, early adoption could inject $3–10 billion of fresh demand. While no single region drives Bitcoin’s valuation alone, combined flows from the US, Europe, and Japan could easily deliver a mid-single-digit percentage uplift to BTC in the early phases of this expansion.

The broader takeaway is unmistakable: Bitcoin is transitioning from a niche risk asset into a globally standardized investment product. The return of a positive Coinbase Premium may be the market’s earliest confirmation that institutions—especially the most conservative ones—are positioning ahead of 2026.

Weekly Structure Shows Early Signs of Recovery

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a decisive rebound, with price pushing back above $93,000 after weeks of aggressive selling pressure. The recent wick down toward the green 100-week moving average (100W MA) marked a key moment: buyers stepped in precisely at long-term dynamic support, preventing a deeper breakdown toward the $80,000–$82,000 region.

This reaction confirms that long-term holders and institutional buyers are protecting this level, aligning with the recent return of positive signals from the Coinbase Premium Index.

Despite the rebound, the chart still shows Bitcoin facing overhead resistance. The 50-week MA sits just above the price, creating a supply zone between $97,000 and $102,000. This has historically acted as a trend-determining range; reclaiming it would shift momentum decisively back to the bulls. Until then, the market remains in a mid-cycle consolidation.

Volume behavior also supports the recovery narrative. The huge sell-volume spikes seen in November marked capitulation-like behavior, which often precedes trend reversals. The recent green weekly candle forming on rising buy volume suggests that demand is returning, aligning with improving liquidity conditions on major US and global exchanges.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum is demonstrating notable relative strength after reclaiming the $3,150 level and attempting to push higher, offering a refreshing shift in sentiment following weeks of intense selling pressure, fear, and market-wide uncertainty. As the broader crypto landscape begins to stabilize, ETH stands out as one of the assets showing early signs of recovery, drawing renewed attention from traders and long-term investors alike.

A key factor supporting this shift is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) reading for Ethereum on Binance, which is currently sitting around 0.22 while price trades near $3,100.

This level reflects a delicate equilibrium between fear and optimism, indicating that a significant portion of ETH holders remain in moderate profit. Importantly, NUPL has not yet moved into the “greed” zone typically seen in the late stages of a bullish cycle, suggesting that the market is far from overheated.

Instead, Ethereum appears to be transitioning into a more neutral, constructive phase where investors are cautiously optimistic but not excessively euphoric. This balance often forms the foundation for a healthier recovery, especially after a deep correction. If momentum continues building and NUPL remains stable or trends higher, ETH could be positioning itself for a stronger upside move in the coming weeks.

NUPL Signals a Transitional Market Phase

Arab Chain notes that Ethereum’s NUPL index experienced a significant rise between June and August, reaching levels far higher than today and reflecting strong profitability across the network during mid-2025. At that time, investor sentiment leaned toward optimism, supported by rising prices and improving macro conditions.

However, as Ethereum’s price began to decline steadily from October onward, unrealized profits started to shrink. This pushed NUPL down toward more neutral territory, signaling a shift in sentiment from elevated optimism to a more grounded, cautious outlook.

Crucially, NUPL has not fallen into negative territory, meaning the average ETH holder has not transitioned into unrealized losses. This is an important sign of underlying market strength. When investors remain in profit, they tend to be less motivated to sell aggressively at lower prices, reducing the risk of panic-driven capitulation and helping stabilize price action during corrections.

Taken together, these signals indicate that Ethereum is currently in a transitional phase. The market is neither euphoric nor fearful—rather, it is waiting for a decisive catalyst to define the next trend. As long as NUPL stays above 0.20, Ethereum retains a meaningful level of investor confidence, increasing the likelihood of a rebound if liquidity strengthens or positive fundamental developments emerge.

ETH Rebounds Strongly on the Weekly Chart

Ethereum’s weekly chart shows a powerful rebound as price surges back above the $3,150–$3,200 region, reclaiming a critical support band that had turned into resistance during the November sell-off. The long lower wick from last week’s candle confirms strong buy-side interest around the $2,700–$2,800 zone, an area that has historically acted as a major demand region during multi-month corrections.

ETH has now reclaimed the 100-week SMA, a key trend indicator currently positioned near $2,900, signaling renewed structural stability. The 200-week SMA, sitting comfortably lower, continues to reinforce the long-term uptrend. However, the 50-week SMA, which has flattened and now looms around the $3,350–$3,400 level, represents the next significant resistance level. ETH will need a decisive weekly close above this moving average to confirm a true shift back into bullish momentum.

Volume on the rebound is notably stronger than in previous consolidation phases, suggesting increased participation and growing confidence among market participants. However, ETH is not yet in the clear. The series of lower highs since the September peak forms a descending structure that must be broken for a sustained uptrend to resume.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum is showing notable relative strength as it reclaims the $3,150 level and attempts to push higher, signaling early signs of recovery after weeks dominated by heavy selling pressure, fear, and uncertainty. The broader market rebound has helped restore confidence, but ETH’s ability to outperform key altcoins highlights growing demand and improved sentiment around the asset.

Adding to the renewed optimism, fresh on-chain data from Lookonchain reveals a significant move from one of the market’s most recognized whales. During the rebound, whale 0xdECF deposited another 5,000 ETH—worth approximately $15.52 million—into Binance.

This wallet has become well-known for sending large batches of ETH to exchanges throughout the recent downturn, often coinciding with moments of heightened volatility and capitulation.

Its latest deposit suggests that the whale remains highly active and responsive to market conditions. While such movements can sometimes introduce uncertainty, they also highlight increasing liquidity and engagement from major holders. With price reclaiming key levels and whales repositioning, Ethereum enters a critical phase where sustained strength could confirm a broader shift in market structure.

Ethereum Whale Distribution Highlights Market Caution

According to Lookonchain, whale 0xdECF has sold 25,603 ETH—valued at approximately $85.44 million—across Binance and Galaxy Digital since October 28. Despite this substantial distribution, the wallet still holds 5,000 ETH (around $15.52 million), suggesting that the whale has not fully exited its position but has significantly reduced exposure during the recent market decline.

This pattern of behavior provides important insight into sentiment among large holders: while they are not abandoning Ethereum entirely, they are actively managing risk and responding to volatility more aggressively than usual.

Such persistent selling pressure from a large wallet often acts as a drag on price during periods of weakness, especially when market liquidity is thin. However, the fact that the whale continues to retain a meaningful position indicates an expectation of potential recovery—or at least a desire to remain strategically exposed to future upside.

Ethereum now finds itself in a critical phase. The asset has reclaimed key levels, but its mid-term structure remains highly sensitive to macro conditions and whale behavior. If selling from major holders slows and accumulation begins to outpace distribution, the recent rebound could solidify into a sustained trend. Otherwise, renewed sell flows could place Ethereum at risk of revisiting lower support zones.

ETH Reclaims Short-Term Momentum but Faces Heavy Resistance

Ethereum’s daily chart shows a clear improvement in momentum after reclaiming the $3,150–$3,200 region, but the broader structure remains fragile. The bounce from the $2,750–$2,850 support zone marked a decisive shift in buyer behavior, with strong lower wicks indicating aggressive demand. This rebound has pushed ETH back above key short-term levels, yet the asset still faces a challenging path forward.

Price is now approaching the 50-day SMA, currently sloping downward just above $3,250, which now acts as immediate resistance. This moving average has capped every rally since late October and remains the first major barrier for bulls to reclaim. Beyond it, the 100-day SMA around $3,450 and the 200-day SMA near $3,600 form a tight cluster of overhead resistance that defines the medium-term downtrend.

Volume on the recent bounce is stronger than previous attempts, signaling that buyers are showing more conviction compared to the mid-November attempts to recover. However, the overall trend still leans bearish until ETH can break above the 50-day SMA and begin closing daily candles over $3,300.

Ethereum sits in a critical inflection zone: holding above $3,100 strengthens the case for continued recovery, while rejection from the $3,250–$3,300 band could trigger another retest of the $2,800 region. The next few sessions will determine whether this rebound evolves into a deeper trend reversal.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

XRP has reclaimed the $2.10 level after a strong rebound across the broader crypto market, signaling renewed confidence following several days of fear, volatility, and sharp pullbacks. Analysts now see the potential for a sustained recovery as momentum returns and buyers show signs of stepping back in. The reclaim of this key level comes at a crucial moment, with traders closely watching whether XRP can build enough strength to challenge higher resistances in the coming sessions.

Adding to the renewed optimism, a new report from CryptoOnchain on CryptoQuant highlights a major spike in XRP Ledger Velocity, marking one of the strongest on-chain signals of 2025. On December 2, the Velocity metric surged to 0.0324, its highest value of the year. Velocity measures how frequently XRP moves across the network, serving as a direct indicator of economic activity, liquidity, and transactional demand.

Such a dramatic rise in Velocity shows that XRP is circulating rapidly among users rather than sitting dormant in wallets. It reflects increased participation from traders, active holders, and possibly even whales, pointing toward heightened engagement on the network.

Network Activity Surges as Velocity Signals Peak 2025 Engagement

According to the CryptoOnchain report, the latest spike in XRP Ledger Velocity indicates a dramatic shift in how XRP is being used across the network. Instead of sitting idle in cold wallets or being held for long-term storage, XRP is rapidly changing hands among market participants. This level of circulation suggests that traders, active users, and possibly whales are driving significantly higher transaction volume than usual.

CryptoOnchain explains that such a strong jump in Velocity typically signals high liquidity and deep participation across the ecosystem. When coins move this quickly, it means the asset is being used in real economic activity—whether for trading, transfers, arbitrage, or strategic repositioning by large holders. This type of behavior often aligns with periods of heightened volatility, increased speculation, or structural shifts in market sentiment.

Regardless of whether price trends upward or downward, the data confirms that the XRP Ledger is entering one of its most active phases of 2025. User engagement has reached a yearly peak, with more participants interacting with the network and more coins circulating than at any point this year.

Such elevated activity often precedes or accompanies major market movements, reinforcing the idea that XRP is transitioning into a more dynamic and liquid phase as the recovery unfolds.

XRP Faces Heavy Resistance in a Weakening Daily Structure

XRP’s daily chart shows an attempted rebound toward the $2.15–$2.20 range, but the broader structure remains pressured by a persistent downtrend. After the sharp sell-off in late October and November—which pushed XRP below the $2.00 level for the first time in months—the asset is now trying to stabilize. The recent bounce reflects short-term buying interest, yet the price still trades below all major moving averages, signaling that bulls have not fully regained control.

The 50-day SMA is currently sloping downward near $2.35, acting as immediate resistance. The 100-day SMA around $2.55 and the 200-day SMA near $2.60 form a stacked barrier above price, confirming a structurally bearish setup. For XRP to build meaningful upside momentum, it must reclaim at least the 50-day SMA and flip it into support—something it has failed to do since late September.

Support remains stable around $2.00–$2.05, where buyers have defended the level repeatedly with long lower wicks. A breakdown below this area could expose XRP to deeper losses toward $1.80. Meanwhile, volume remains muted, suggesting the rebound lacks strong conviction.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

A new CryptoQuant report from XWIN Research Japan reveals that the sharp +6% Bitcoin rally on December 2–3, 2025 was triggered by a seismic shift in traditional finance: Vanguard’s unexpected policy reversal.

The $11 trillion asset manager—long known for its conservative stance—opened its platform to spot ETFs for BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL, instantly giving more than 50 million investors access to crypto products. The move marks one of the most significant steps toward mainstream adoption in the industry’s history.

The catalyst behind this reversal was the appointment of Salim Ramji, Vanguard’s new CEO and a former BlackRock executive who played a key role in launching the IBIT ETF. His leadership signaled a dramatic change in direction, and the market responded immediately.

Once US markets opened, Bitcoin surged 6% in a single move, while IBIT surpassed $1 billion in trading volume within the first 30 minutes. Massive inflows from retail and retirement accounts followed, with Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas noting that “a large wave of Vanguard clients may have moved all at once.”

Institutional Demand Builds as Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Recovers

XWIN Research Japan notes that, despite the recent surge, the Coinbase Premium Index remains in negative territory, showing that US prices still sit slightly below global averages. Even so, the report highlights a clear improvement in US spot buying pressure, signaling that demand is slowly returning.

If the premium rises back to zero or positive territory, the market may begin to price in what XWIN calls the “next wave” — a phase that could propel Bitcoin toward the $100K range as institutional flows strengthen.

This shift is happening just as Vanguard makes its historic entrance into the crypto market. XWIN emphasizes that this is not a short-term catalyst. Vanguard manages $11 trillion, and even a tiny allocation — just 0.5% of assets flowing into crypto ETFs — would represent $55 billion in new capital. That figure alone exceeds the entire first-year inflow from the 2024 spot Bitcoin ETF cycle.

With the “final giant” of traditional finance now participating, the long-term structure of Bitcoin demand is changing. Vanguard’s move signals the beginning of a genuine institutional adoption phase, where inflows can scale far beyond anything seen in previous cycles, potentially redefining Bitcoin’s upper price boundaries.

Price Rebounds From Weekly Support but Faces Major Resistance

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a strong rebound from the $84,000–$86,000 support zone, an area that aligns closely with the 100-week SMA. This level acted as a critical pivot during previous corrections, and once again buyers stepped in aggressively, forming a clear bullish reaction. The long lower wick from last week’s candle confirms strong demand, with BTC now trading back above $93,000.

However, despite the rebound, the broader structure remains cautious. Bitcoin still trades below the 50-week SMA, which has begun to flatten near the $102,000–$103,000 region. This moving average now acts as a major resistance level and the next key test for bulls. A weekly close above it would mark a meaningful shift in momentum and signal that BTC may be ready to resume its broader uptrend.

If BTC continues to hold above the 100-week SMA and pushes toward the 50-week SMA, the market could enter a consolidation phase that sets the stage for a stronger upside move. Failure to reclaim $102K, however, risks renewed selling pressure and a potential retest of the $86K region.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $93,000 level after a sharp market-wide rebound, marking a notable shift in sentiment following weeks of bearish pressure and relentless selloffs. Analysts who previously warned of deeper downside are now turning cautiously bullish as fresh data begins to point toward a structural improvement in market conditions.

One of the clearest signals comes from a new report by Arab Chain on CryptoQuant, which shows that the Coinbase Premium Index has flipped back into positive territory at +0.03. This shift is significant: after a full month of U.S.-led selling in November, a positive premium often reflects renewed demand from US institutions, funds, and large traders, who primarily use Coinbase as their gateway for liquidity.

At the same time, Binance-based metrics—particularly spot volumes and perpetual futures activity—show that global liquidity is beginning to respond to the improving US bid. Historically, when Coinbase Premium rises alone, rallies tend to fade quickly. But when Binance liquidity strengthens in tandem, the market usually enters a consolidation phase that can set the stage for a sustained upward move.

Bitcoin Market Convergence Strengthens

Arab Chain notes that the price gap between Binance and Coinbase has narrowed significantly in recent days, a key sign that capital flows across major exchanges are beginning to rebalance. Throughout November, persistent selling from US investors created a disconnect between the two platforms, with Coinbase often pricing lower than Binance.

The recent convergence suggests that both markets are now receiving similar levels of demand, reducing fragmentation and improving overall market stability.

At the same time, Binance liquidity has begun to strengthen, with spot and perpetual markets showing a gradual rise in buying activity. This uptick supports the idea that Bitcoin may be forming a new price base following the sharp correction that pushed the asset into the low $80K range just days ago. Strengthening liquidity on Binance is particularly important because it reflects global participation—not just US-based flows.

The combination of a positive Coinbase Premium and recovering Binance liquidity creates a more constructive market environment. If these conditions persist—premium staying above zero and buy-side volumes increasing—the market could transition into the early stages of a new upward trend.

However, Arab Chain warns that if the premium turns negative again, traders should expect renewed volatility and short-term selling pressure to return.

BTC Reclaims $93K But Must Overcome Key Resistance Levels

Bitcoin’s 3-day chart shows a notable improvement after reclaiming the $93,000 level, but the broader structure remains in recovery mode rather than full reversal. The bounce from the $82,000–$85,000 demand zone marked a clear reaction from buyers, creating strong lower wicks that signal aggressive dip absorption. However, BTC now faces a critical test as it approaches the cluster of moving averages that served as breakdown points during November’s correction.

Price currently sits just below the 50 SMA, which is trending downward and acting as immediate resistance near $95,000–$97,000. The 100 SMA, positioned around the $103,000 region, represents the next major barrier. A decisive break above this zone would signal a potential shift in mid-term momentum. Meanwhile, the 200 SMA at $88,500 now acts as reclaimed support, and Bitcoin holding above it is an early sign of stabilization.

Volume during the rebound shows healthier buying activity compared to late-November declines, but it remains moderate—suggesting cautious participation rather than full conviction. For BTC to regain trend strength, it must print a strong close above the 50 SMA and attempt to retest the 100 SMA.

Failure to break above $95K–$97K could invite another pullback toward $88K, making this resistance cluster a crucial pivot for Bitcoin’s next major move.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

the heldTron has emerged as one of the strongest performers during the latest market downturn, showing a level of resilience rarely seen among major altcoins. While most large-cap cryptocurrencies have suffered drawdowns of 40% or more since August, Tron has limited its losses to just 24%, outperforming nearly the entire altcoin sector. This relative strength highlights the network’s unique positioning and the steady demand it continues to attract despite broader market weakness.

A major factor behind this resilience is Tron’s growing dominance in the stablecoin ecosystem. According to data from Tronscan, shared by Lookonchain, Tether minted another 1 billion USDT on Tron, signaling continued confidence in the network’s ability to handle large-scale stablecoin issuance. This new mint has pushed Tron’s stablecoin market cap above $80.2 billion, solidifying its role as the leading chain for USDT circulation.

As capital rotates defensively into stablecoins, Tron tends to benefit disproportionately. Its ability to maintain relative stability while the rest of the market capitulates reinforces the idea that Tron’s utility-driven demand remains intact—and may continue to offer support even if volatility persists.

Tron Strengthens Its Position as the Second-Largest Stablecoin Network

Tron has become a central pillar of the global stablecoin ecosystem, securing its position as the second-largest blockchain for stablecoin activity. Its appeal comes from fast settlement times, extremely low transaction fees, and deep liquidity—features that make it the preferred network for high-volume USDT transfers, especially across exchanges, OTC desks, and remittance corridors.

This infrastructure has allowed Tron to attract massive stablecoin flows, with its total stablecoin market cap now exceeding $80.2 billion, largely driven by Tether’s continual issuance on the network.

However, despite Tron’s remarkable growth, Ethereum still dominates the stablecoin landscape, maintaining a market cap of roughly $166 billion, which is nearly double that of Tron. Ethereum’s dominance is supported by its broader DeFi ecosystem, institutional presence, and the higher-value activity that takes place through smart contracts, lending protocols, and on-chain financial applications.

Stablecoins on Ethereum often serve as liquidity for sophisticated trading and yield strategies, whereas on Tron, they are primarily used for settlement, payments, and exchange flows.

The two ecosystems complement different market needs. Ethereum anchors the institutional and DeFi-driven segment of stablecoin usage, while Tron leads in high-throughput, cost-efficient transactions. As stablecoin demand grows globally, both networks continue to reinforce their positions. One through scalability and speed, the other through DeFi depth and capital concentration.

TRX Holds Strong Weekly Structure Despite Volatility

Tron’s weekly chart shows a notable level of resilience compared to broader market conditions. While many altcoins have experienced far deeper drawdowns, TRX has held above the $0.27–$0.28 support zone. Maintaining a strong higher-timeframe structure. The recent correction pulled the price down from the $0.36 region, but TRX continues to trade comfortably above the 50-week SMA. Which now sits around $0.28 and acts as immediate dynamic support.

This strength is significant. Throughout 2025, TRX has respected its rising moving averages. The 50-week SMA in particular has provided consistent support during each market pullback. The 100-week and 200-week SMAs, positioned well below the current price, show a broad, healthy long-term uptrend that remains intact.

For Tron to regain bullish momentum, it must reclaim the $0.30–$0.32 region. Which served as support during the previous uptrend and now acts as resistance. A strong weekly close above this zone could open the door for a retest of the $0.34–$0.36 highs. Until then, TRX remains one of the market’s more stable performers, showing controlled downside and structural strength.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum has reclaimed the $3,000 level after a strong market reaction to improving macro conditions, offering investors a much-needed shift in momentum. The move comes just days after the Federal Reserve officially ended Quantitative Tightening (QT), a policy shift that immediately boosted liquidity expectations across all risk assets. With markets now pricing in an imminent interest rate cut, confidence has begun to return, and ETH is one of the first major assets to respond.

This rebound reflects more than just macro relief. According to data from Arkham, shared by Lookonchain, Bitmine continues to accumulate Ethereum at current prices, reinforcing bullish sentiment at a moment when many traders remain cautious. Bitmine’s persistent buying throughout the correction has become one of the most influential signals for on-chain analysts, suggesting that large players see long-term value even as the market wrestles with volatility.

Reclaiming $3,000 places Ethereum back above a key psychological level, and the combination of supportive macro policy and whale accumulation provides a stronger foundation than the market had just weeks ago.

Bitmine and Linked Wallets Expand Ethereum Holdings

According to data from Arkham reported by Lookonchain, Bitmine has purchased another 18,345 ETH, worth approximately $54.94 million, just a few hours ago. This marks yet another large buy in a growing series of aggressive accumulation moves that Bitmine has made throughout the correction. Their continued willingness to buy at current levels signals strong confidence in Ethereum’s long-term value, even as the market navigates heightened volatility.

Shortly after this report, Lookonchain highlighted activity from a newly created wallet, 0x52B7, which withdrew 30,278 ETH—valued at $91.16 million—from Kraken. The size and timing of the withdrawal have led analysts to speculate that this wallet may be linked to Bitmine or part of a broader accumulation strategy.

Large withdrawals from exchanges typically indicate that the owner intends to hold the assets off-exchange, often for long-term storage or staking, rather than preparing to sell.

If the wallet is indeed connected to Bitmine, this would bring their latest combined accumulation to nearly 50,000 ETH in a single day. Such behavior suggests strategic positioning ahead of potential macro-driven upside or internal confidence in Ethereum’s recovery.

This kind of synchronized whale activity often precedes significant price shifts, reinforcing the idea that large players are preparing for a stronger market phase.

ETH Reclaims $3,000 But Still Faces Key Resistance

Ethereum’s 3-day chart shows a notable improvement after reclaiming the $3,000 level, but the broader trend still carries signs of fragility. The recent bounce followed a deep corrective move that sent ETH from the $4,500 region down to the $2,700–$2,800 support zone, where buyers finally stepped in with conviction. The strong lower wicks around this area confirm that demand remains active, but Ethereum has yet to fully recover its bullish structure.

Price now trades just below the 50 SMA, which sits near the $3,100–$3,150 zone—an important short-term resistance level. A clean break above this moving average would signal renewed momentum and increase the chances of retesting the $3,400–$3,600 range. Meanwhile, the 100 SMA and 200 SMA remain slightly above price, reflecting the broader downtrend that has dominated since September.

Volume has picked up slightly during the recovery, but it remains muted compared to the selling spikes seen during the drawdown. This indicates cautious buying rather than aggressive accumulation at these levels. To confirm a trend reversal, ETH must close above the 50 SMA and then challenge the cluster of resistance around $3,200–$3,300.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin continues to trade below $90,000, struggling to recover after several days of heavy selling and aggressive long liquidations. Sellers keep pushing price lower, and bulls fail to reclaim momentum, creating a market environment filled with uncertainty and fear. Every attempt to bounce meets immediate resistance, showing how much control bears currently hold.

Data shared by Axel Adler shows a clear shift in derivatives pressure toward buyers. The liquidation dominance oscillator now sits at 32%, one of its highest readings in recent years. This level signals that leveraged bulls keep taking the majority of the damage, with long positions consistently wiped out as volatility rises. Instead of absorbing the drawdown, many traders continue to unwind or get forced out of their positions.

These repeated long liquidations fuel deeper downside moves and block any meaningful recovery attempts. The market now watches closely to see whether this wave of forced selling will continue dragging Bitcoin lower or if the pressure is finally reaching exhaustion.

Long Liquidations Dominate as Bitcoin Faces Renewed Downside Pressure

Adler explains that the liquidation dominance oscillator measures the ratio between long and short liquidations across the derivatives market. When the indicator prints positive values, shown as green bars, long positions take the bulk of the damage.

Negative values reflect a dominance of short liquidations. Bitcoin’s current reading of 32% stands out as one of the highest levels seen in the last three years, highlighting how aggressively bulls have been forced out during this correction.

November illustrates this perfectly. The market saw three separate waves of long liquidations, each exceeding $400 million. Every one of those spikes aligned with a sharp acceleration in Bitcoin’s price decline, reinforcing how leveraged buyers repeatedly amplified downside momentum. Rather than stabilizing the market, each flush created more selling pressure and triggered deeper unwinding across futures platforms.

The most recent liquidation wave reached $221 million, hitting the market right as Bitcoin attempted a short-term recovery. That flush immediately reversed the bounce and dragged BTC back down to the $86,000 region, erasing nearly all of last week’s gains. The persistent dominance of long liquidations shows that bulls remain under heavy stress—and until this dynamic eases, Bitcoin will struggle to build sustainable upside.

Bitcoin Market Searches for a Higher Time-Frame Floor

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows the market pressing into a critical support zone after weeks of heavy selling. The price has dropped from the $115,000 region to the $86,000–$88,000 range, where it now interacts directly with the 100 SMA. This moving average has served as a key structural support in previous cycles, and Bitcoin’s current test of it will likely determine whether the broader uptrend holds or breaks down further.

The recent candles highlight intense volatility. Bitcoin briefly dipped to nearly $84,000 before buyers stepped in, forming a lower wick that shows early attempts to defend this level. However, the rebound remains shallow, and the 50 SMA continues to slope downward — a sign that short- and mid-term momentum still favors sellers. For bulls to regain control, BTC needs to reclaim $95,000 on a weekly closing basis.

Volume adds weight to the bearish pressure. Selling spikes dominate recent weeks, revealing a mix of forced liquidations and fear-driven exits rather than healthy profit-taking. As long as BTC trades below the 50 SMA, the market remains vulnerable to deeper retracements.

If the 100 SMA fails to hold, the next major liquidity zone sits near $70,000–$72,000, aligning with previous consolidation and the long-term 200 SMA. The next weekly close will be decisive.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has fallen back below the $90,000 level after another wave of selling pressure and leveraged long liquidations, signaling that the market remains firmly on the defensive. Each attempt to stabilize has failed, with sellers quickly overwhelming buyers and forcing price into lower ranges. Fear and uncertainty continue to dominate sentiment, and traders increasingly prepare for the possibility of a deeper continuation of the downtrend as volatility accelerates.

Amid this weakness, a new signal has started to attract the attention of analysts. According to Maartunn, one of the market’s most respected on-chain researchers, old coins are waking up again. Dormant Bitcoin—specifically coins held for 3 to 5 years—has begun to move on-chain in noticeable spikes. Historically, this type of activity often reflects structural shifts in holder behavior, appearing during periods of stress, capitulation, or preparation for major market pivots.

While the direction of these moves is not always immediately clear, rising activity among long-dormant coins adds another layer of complexity to an already fragile market. As Bitcoin continues to struggle below $90K, the behavior of these older coins could help determine whether the current decline deepens—or sets the stage for a larger transition ahead.

Old Coins Start Moving as Macro Fear Collides With Policy Shifts

Maartunn highlights a notable rise in activity from 3–5 year-old Bitcoin, a cohort that typically remains dormant unless underlying conditions begin to shift. The Spent Output Age Bands show a sharp increase, jumping from 2,030 BTC earlier today to 3,475 BTC now. These spikes rarely happen randomly. Maartunn believes that “something’s stirring beneath the surface,” suggesting that long-term holders may be reacting to mounting market stress—or positioning ahead of a potential macro inflection.

This awakening of older coins comes at a moment filled with conflicting signals. Fear around Tether’s reserves has resurfaced, sparking concerns over liquidity stability across exchanges. At the same time, renewed headlines about a supposed China Bitcoin ban have circulated again, despite offering no new policy information. These narratives have added yet another layer of anxiety to an already fragile market.

Yet the macro backdrop also contains reasons for cautious optimism. The Federal Reserve is expected to bring its quantitative tightening (QT) program to an end, and markets are increasingly pricing in a potential interest rate cut this December. Such shifts historically improve liquidity conditions and support risk assets.

As long-term coins begin to move and macro forces pull in opposite directions, Bitcoin enters a complex environment—one that could precede either deeper volatility or the early stages of a larger transition.

Bitcoin Struggles to Recover as Daily Trend Remains Firmly Bearish

Bitcoin’s 1-day chart continues to reveal a market trapped in a strong downtrend, with price failing to reclaim the key moving averages that define higher-timeframe momentum. After breaking down from the $115,000 region, BTC plunged directly through the 50 SMA, 100 SMA, and 200 SMA, creating a steep momentum shift that sellers still control.

The current price action around $86,000–$88,000 shows hesitation and a lack of follow-through from bulls, even after several attempts to rebound.

The 50 and 100 SMAs both slope sharply downward, confirming a bearish trend structure. Meanwhile, the 200 SMA has flattened and now sits far above price, highlighting just how aggressive and extended the selloff has been. BTC continues to print lower highs and lower lows, a clear signal that the market has not yet found a stable bottom.

Volume spikes on major red candles suggest a mix of forced liquidations and panic-driven exits, while green candles remain smaller and less convincing. The lack of strong buy volume shows that investors remain cautious despite the magnitude of the correction.

If Bitcoin fails to break back above $92,000–$95,000, the market risks another leg lower. The next major supports sit between $80,000 and $78,000, levels that align with previous consolidation zones. For now, the bears still control the daily trend.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum has fallen below the $2,800 mark after a sharp and sudden decline, deepening panic across the market and reinforcing the sense that bulls have lost control. The recent drop has pushed investors into defensive mode, with some analysts now openly discussing the possibility of a broader bear market emerging. Selling pressure has intensified across spot and derivatives markets, and volatility continues to rise as traders struggle to identify a reliable support zone.

A new CryptoQuant report by Darkfost highlights one of the most alarming developments: Ethereum’s open interest on Binance has been steadily collapsing for more than three months. After reaching an all-time high of $12.6 billion on August 22, open interest has now been cut in half. Nearly $6.4 billion in derivative positions have evaporated, bringing ETH’s open interest down to $6.2 billion, a steep 51% decline.

While this appears to be an extraordinary contraction, Darkfost notes that open interest has only just slipped below the previous all-time high of $7.7 billion. This underscores how speculative and overstretched the 2025 derivatives market had become — and suggests that Ethereum may be undergoing a much deeper structural reset than most expected.

Speculation Unwinds Across Exchanges as Ethereum Enters Deep Reset Phase

Darkfost emphasizes that 2025 has been the most speculative phase in Ethereum’s history, fueled by aggressive leverage, rapid inflows, and a market structure that proved far less solid — and far less sustainable — than it appeared during the rally. The collapse in open interest on Binance is only part of the story.

The same pattern is unfolding across major derivatives platforms, revealing a broader structural unwind rather than an exchange-specific phenomenon.

On Gate.io, ETH open interest has fallen from $5.2 billion to $3.5 billion. On Bybit, the drop is even more severe, plunging from $6.1 billion to $2.3 billion. This synchronized contraction shows how aggressively speculative positions have been flushed out. Meanwhile, the ongoing correction has dragged Ethereum’s price from $4,830 to $2,800, marking a steep 43% decline from the highs.

This widespread reduction in leverage suggests the market is undergoing a deeper reset than typical corrections. Investors are not rushing to re-enter positions, especially as liquidations continue to stack up across exchanges.

While shrinking open interest weighs on short-term momentum and sentiment, Darkfost notes that such aggressive deleveraging may ultimately help rebuild a healthier market foundation — one capable of supporting a durable bottom for ETH.

ETH Loses Key Trend Support as 3-Day Structure Turns Fully Bearish

Ethereum’s 3-day chart shows a decisive breakdown in structure, with price now firmly below the 50 SMA, 100 SMA, and 200 SMA for the first time since late 2024. The rejection from the $3,600–$3,800 region triggered a strong impulse to the downside, sending ETH directly through all major moving averages and confirming a shift toward a higher-timeframe downtrend. The current trading zone around $2,800 reflects a critical test of former support, but momentum remains weak.

The 50 SMA has now crossed below the 100 SMA, while both are beginning to converge downward toward the 200 SMA — a configuration that typically precedes sustained corrections. Volume has increased on red candles, showing that sellers remain dominant, and there is little evidence of aggressive dip-buying. The most recent candle wick toward $2,700 highlights vulnerability rather than strength, suggesting buyers are hesitant to defend this level with conviction.

ETH is also forming a series of lower highs and lower lows, further confirming bearish market structure. If $2,750 breaks cleanly, the next significant liquidity zones sit near $2,550 and $2,300, where prior consolidations developed earlier in the cycle.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum has fallen below the $2,800 mark after a sharp and sudden decline, deepening market anxiety and raising fresh questions about whether a broader bearish phase may be emerging. The drop has undermined bullish momentum, with buyers struggling to defend key support levels as selling pressure accelerates across both spot and derivatives markets.

Sentiment has deteriorated quickly, and several analysts are beginning to openly discuss the possibility of a sustained bear market if ETH fails to stabilize soon.

Yet amid the growing panic, a notable counter-signal continues to attract attention: Bitmine’s ongoing accumulation. Despite ETH’s decline, the firm has repeatedly added to its holdings, purchasing thousands of ETH over the past several weeks. Bitmine’s persistent buying behavior suggests that at least some large players still view the current correction as an opportunity rather than a risk.

For investors searching for signs of resilience, Bitmine’s actions have become a point of cautious optimism. While the macro structure remains fragile and the downtrend intact, steady accumulation from an institutional buyer provides a potential anchor of support — and raises the possibility that a rebound could form once selling pressure exhausts.

Bitmine Expands Its Massive Ethereum Position

According to on-chain data from Arkham, shared by Lookonchain, Bitmine has continued its aggressive accumulation strategy, purchasing an additional 7,080 ETH—worth approximately $19.8 million—just a few hours ago.

This latest buy adds to a series of repeated inflows over the past several weeks, reinforcing the firm’s conviction even as Ethereum trades near multi-month lows. Bitmine’s willingness to keep adding during periods of heightened volatility has become one of the most notable accumulation trends in the market.

With this purchase, Bitmine’s total Ethereum holdings have climbed to roughly 3.43 million ETH, now valued at around $9.6 billion at current prices. This positions the firm as one of the largest known institutional holders of ETH, and its continued accumulation stands in sharp contrast to the broader atmosphere of fear and defensive positioning. While many traders are reducing exposure amid Ethereum’s sharp decline, Bitmine appears to be doubling down.

Such behavior from a major entity often signals longer-term confidence in Ethereum’s fundamentals, regardless of short-term price action. For investors, Bitmine’s expanding position has created a counter-narrative to prevailing bearish sentiment, suggesting that deeper-pocketed players may be preparing for a recovery once the market finishes resetting.

ETH Tests Weekly Support as Trend Weakens

Ethereum’s weekly chart shows a significant loss of momentum, with price breaking below the 50 SMA and now sitting directly on top of the 100 SMA near the $2,750–$2,800 region. This zone has historically served as an important structural support during prior corrections, making the current interaction a critical moment for the broader trend. The sharp rejection from the $4,500 level marks one of ETH’s steepest weekly declines since 2022, highlighting the intensity of the current sell-off.

The 50 SMA has begun to curl downward, signaling early signs of medium-term trend weakness. Meanwhile, the 100 SMA is flattening, acting as the last dynamic support before the 200 SMA at $2,450, which represents the true long-term floor. A clean weekly close below the 100 SMA would open the door to a deeper retracement toward that level.

Volume has increased during the recent decline, reflecting forced selling and derivatives-driven liquidations rather than orderly profit-taking. Despite this, the long lower wicks forming near $2,700 suggest buyers are still attempting to defend the area.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is entering a decisive moment as selling pressure intensifies and uncertainty continues to grip the market. Bulls are struggling to reclaim higher levels, and each failed rebound reinforces the prevailing downtrend. With momentum weakening across spot and derivatives markets, investors are increasingly questioning whether BTC can stabilize before more serious structural damage occurs.

According to a report by Darkfost, the situation is especially difficult for short-term participants. With a realized price of $113,692, the BTC 1–3 month cohort is now experiencing the largest percentage loss of this entire cycle.

This analysis focuses exclusively on the spot market, isolating a group of investors known for more speculative behavior and faster reaction times. Because these holders typically enter during strong momentum phases, their capitulation or continued holding often signals pivotal shifts in market structure.

The deep losses within this cohort reveal how aggressively the market has reversed and underscore the mounting pressure on shorter-term players. As Bitcoin approaches critical support levels, the behavior of these investors may determine whether the current correction stabilizes — or accelerates into a broader downturn.

Short-Term Holder Capitulation Often Signals Bottom Formation

Darkfost highlights that the 1–3 month Bitcoin holder cohort has now spent nearly two weeks sitting on average unrealized losses between 20% and 25%. Historically, this type of drawdown among short-term participants has tended to occur near cyclical bottom formation.

These traders typically react quickly to volatility, and when their losses reach this depth, they are pushed into a critical decision point: sell and exit the market, or hold and endure further downside.

Throughout this cycle, similar phases of elevated losses have preceded major inflection points. Once a large portion of these speculative holders capitulates — a process that appears to have been unfolding in recent weeks — selling pressure usually begins to exhaust. This shift often creates an environment where accumulation becomes far more attractive for patient investors who track sentiment and realized-price dynamics.

However, Darkfost emphasizes that this pattern only holds if the long-term bullish trend remains intact. Structural on-chain indicators, broader demand trends, and long-horizon holder behavior continue to support the idea that Bitcoin’s macro trend has not been invalidated.

While volatility may persist in the short term, the alignment of capitulation signals with a still-intact long-term structure suggests that current levels could become an opportunity for strategic accumulation.

Bitcoin Tests Weekly Level as Market Searches for Higher-Timeframe Support

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows the most significant corrective phase since the early stages of the cycle, with price falling sharply from the $120,000 region and now attempting to stabilize around the 100 SMA near $84,000–$85,000. This moving average has historically acted as a major structural support during bull markets, and BTC’s current interaction with it marks a critical juncture for the broader trend.

The breakdown below the 50 SMA was a clear sign of weakening momentum, signaling that sellers have gained control of the higher-timeframe structure. However, the wick formed beneath the 100 SMA suggests that buyers are beginning to step in, attempting to defend this crucial zone. The reaction so far is constructive but not yet decisive — BTC needs a stronger weekly close above $90,000 to confirm stability.

Volume has increased during the decline, indicating forced selling and capitulation rather than organic trend reversal. Historically, pullbacks into the 100 SMA often precede medium-term bottoms within a long-term bullish market, but continuation depends on whether BTC can avoid a sustained weekly close below this level.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is fighting to reclaim the $90,000 level after a sharp drop earlier today, adding fuel to growing fears of a deeper downtrend. Market sentiment has weakened noticeably, with selling pressure intensifying across spot and derivatives markets.

Traders remain cautious as liquidity thins and volatility increases, creating an environment where even minor inflows can trigger outsized price reactions. The recent rejection below $90K highlights the fragility of the current structure and raises questions about whether Bitcoin is entering a more prolonged corrective phase.

However, beneath the surface, on-chain data reveals a striking counter-signal. According to On-Chain Mind, Bitcoin is currently printing the largest hidden-buying spike of the entire cycle. Order flow analysis tracks the relationship between actual buy/sell pressure and the corresponding price movement. When the two do not align, hidden divergences emerge: positive divergences indicate aggressive buying despite muted price action, while negative ones reflect stealth selling.

The size of this hidden-buying spike suggests a major imbalance in favor of buyers—an early sign that large players may be quietly accumulating while the broader market focuses on the decline. Whether this hidden demand can offset the prevailing sell pressure will determine Bitcoin’s next decisive move.

Hidden Buying Supports Reversal Narrative Despite Macro Fear

According to On-Chain Mind, the persistent hidden-buying spike remains one of the strongest signals favoring a future upside reversal. Even after Bitcoin’s most recent drop, the imbalance between real buying pressure and price action suggests that large players are still absorbing supply.

While this type of signal does not guarantee an immediate rebound—and may take several weeks to fully materialize—it indicates that buyers have not exhausted their resources. Historically, such divergences appear near cyclical inflection points, when sentiment is weakest, but accumulation quietly strengthens beneath the surface.

This constructive signal emerges at a time when fear in the market is amplified by external narratives. Renewed headlines about a China Bitcoin ban, despite being recycled and lacking substantive policy updates, have resurfaced across social media, contributing to confusion and short-term panic. Similarly, fresh waves of Tether FUD—focused on reserve transparency and regulatory scrutiny—have pressured liquidity conditions and fueled risk-off behavior.

Together, these storylines have exaggerated bearish sentiment, overshadowing the more nuanced on-chain developments. While retail reacts to alarming headlines, order flow data suggests that sophisticated investors are taking the opposite stance. If hidden accumulation continues, this correction may ultimately resolve with a stronger recovery than current sentiment implies.

Related Reading: Bitcoin STH Loss Transfers Fall 80% From Peak – What Comes Next?

Bitcoin Attempts to Stabilize After Sharp Breakdown, but Trend Remains Fragile

Bitcoin’s 1-day chart reflects a market still under heavy corrective pressure following the steep decline from the $110,000 region. The breakdown sliced through the 50 SMA and 100 SMA with little resistance, signaling a decisive shift in momentum. Price is now hovering below both moving averages, which have begun to curl downward—an early sign that the medium-term trend has weakened. The 200 SMA around the $109,000 zone sits far above the current price, underscoring how aggressive the correction has been.

After reaching a local low near $83,000, BTC has attempted to rebound, but the reaction remains modest. The latest bounce failed to reclaim $90,000 convincingly, forming a lower high that aligns with bearish continuation.

Volume spikes during sell-offs reinforce the dominance of sellers, while buying activity remains comparatively muted. Until BTC can flip the 50 and 100 SMAs back into support—now clustered around $101,000–$108,000—bulls will struggle to regain control.

The chart also shows increasing distance between price and the 200 SMA, a condition that often precedes temporary relief rallies. However, unless Bitcoin closes back above the $95,000–$98,000 region, downside risks persist. For now, BTC is attempting to stabilize, but the broader trend continues to favor caution.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum lost the critical $3,000 level on Sunday, sliding toward $2,800 and triggering a new wave of fear across the market. The drop highlights a deepening corrective phase that has pushed short-term investors into heavy unrealized losses, prompting many to reassess their risk exposure.

Adding to the uncertainty, fresh on-chain data has revealed renewed distribution from major holders. According to data from Arkham, shared by Lookonchain, the well-known whale 0xdECF deposited another 5,000 ETH—roughly $15.05 million—into Binance.

This move expands a pattern of consistent selling pressure from large wallets, often seen during heightened market stress. While one whale does not define the broader trend, these deposits usually reinforce bearish sentiment among traders who monitor exchange inflows as a proxy for potential sell-side liquidity.

Whale Distribution Deepens Amid Broader Market Anxiety

Since October 28, the same whale wallet has accelerated its selling activity, unloading 25,603 ETH—approximately $85.44 million—across Binance and Galaxy Digital. Despite this aggressive distribution, the wallet still holds 10,000 ETH valued at roughly $30.34 million, leaving open the possibility of continued sell pressure if market conditions weaken further. Large-scale movements like these often signal a shift in sentiment from sophisticated holders who tend to anticipate volatility earlier than the broader market.

This selling spree comes at a moment when confidence is already fragile. The recent Tether FUD, fueled by speculation around reserve transparency and potential regulatory scrutiny, has added stress to liquidity conditions.

Meanwhile, renewed headlines about a supposed China Bitcoin ban have resurfaced on social media, amplifying fear across both retail traders and short-term investors. Although neither narrative reflects new fundamental risks, emotional markets often react sharply to sensational news during corrective phases.

Together, these factors create a backdrop where whale distributions gain outsized influence. If the remaining 10,000 ETH enters exchanges, it could deepen short-term downside pressure. Conversely, a pause in selling may suggest that the whale views current levels as near-capitulation territory, offering a potential floor for stabilization.

Ethereum Price Tests Support as Downtrend Remains Intact

Ethereum’s 4-hour chart shows a market still struggling to regain momentum after losing the $3,000 handle. The broader structure remains decisively bearish, with price trading below the 50 SMA, 100 SMA, and 200 SMA—a clear indication that sellers continue to control the trend. Each attempt to recover above the moving averages has been rejected, reinforcing the downtrend that began in late October and has continued through November.

The recent bounce from the $2,750–$2,800 support zone shows that buyers are defending this level, but the reaction lacks conviction. Volume remains muted, and the latest attempt to reclaim $3,000 quickly failed, forming another lower high. This signals hesitation and suggests that bulls are not yet strong enough to shift market structure.

The compression seen toward the end of the chart formed a small symmetrical triangle, but the breakdown that followed confirms that sellers still dominate short-term momentum. As long as ETH remains below the 200 EMA—now near $3,350—the macro trend favors continuation to the downside.

If $2,800 breaks cleanly, the next liquidity pockets sit around $2,600 and $2,450, levels that could attract stronger buyer interest. For now, Ethereum must reclaim $3,000 with sustained volume to neutralize bearish pressure.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has fallen below the $90,000 level, intensifying speculation that the market may be entering the early stages of a broader bearish cycle. The drop comes as on-chain and derivatives data reveal a notable shift in investor behavior, especially among large holders.

According to a recent CryptoQuant report by Darkfost, whales have become significantly more active on Binance, driving a marked increase in BTC inflows to the exchange. This rise in transfers exceeding 100 BTC suggests that the market’s largest players have begun adjusting their positioning, often a sign of evolving risk attitudes and strategic repositioning.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been in a corrective phase for nearly two months, consolidating after its prior rally. This pause has been accompanied by a sharp contraction in Open Interest, which has fallen from $47.5 billion to roughly $29 billion today.

The decline reflects substantial disengagement from speculative positions, whether triggered by cautious profit-taking or by liquidations cascading through the derivatives market.

Whale Defense Intensifies as Retail Investors Remain Passive

Darkfost highlights that the rise in whale inflows—measured using a 90-day average—offers a deeper understanding of the current market mood. This metric shows that major holders are prioritizing protection in an increasingly uncertain environment.

Since Bitcoin’s last all-time high, the average whale inflow to Binance has effectively doubled, now approaching 4,000 BTC. Such an increase is rarely insignificant; it typically reflects hedging, de-risking, or preparing liquidity for active repositioning.

In contrast, inflows from retail investors have remained relatively stable and far less volatile. Their exchange activity has not experienced the same directional surge, suggesting that smaller market participants have not meaningfully adjusted their exposure. This divergence creates a striking behavioral split between investor classes.

While whales shift into a defensive posture—moving coins, reassessing exposure, and potentially preparing for further downside—retail participants appear more passive. This may indicate slower reaction times to macro and on-chain signals or simply lower capital at risk.

Historically, such patterns emerge during transitional phases in the market, when sophisticated holders take early precautionary measures before broader sentiment shifts. The growing contrast reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is navigating a phase where caution dominates among its biggest players.

Bitcoin Tests 200 SMA as Market Searches for Direction

Bitcoin’s 3-day chart shows a decisive shift in momentum, with price breaking below the 50 SMA and 100 SMA after weeks of persistent selling pressure. The failure to hold the $90,000 level pushed BTC into its sharpest correction since mid-2024, and the structure now reflects a market struggling to stabilize. The current candle cluster is forming directly on top of the 200 SMA, a historically significant long-term support zone that often separates cyclical uptrends from deeper bearish phases.

The reaction so far has been mixed. BTC briefly dipped below the 200 SMA before recovering back above it, signaling that buyers are attempting to defend the trend boundary. However, the bounce lacks conviction, and volume remains elevated on down candles—an indication that sellers are still aggressive. As long as BTC trades below the 50 and 100 SMAs, the market structure remains vulnerable.

The downtrend also shows a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming that momentum favors continuation unless $92,000–$95,000 is reclaimed. Losing the 200 SMA on a closing basis would open the door to deeper retracements toward $78,000 and $72,000, where prior consolidation zones sit.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com