The TikTok deal is done, and Donald Trump is claiming a win, although it remains unclear if the joint venture he arranged with ByteDance and the Chinese government actually resolves Congress' national security concerns.
In a press release Thursday, TikTok announced the "TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC," an entity established to keep TikTok operating in the US.
Giving Americans majority ownership, ByteDance retains 19.9 percent of the joint venture, the release said, which has been valued at $14 billion. Three managing investors—Silver Lake, Oracle, and MGX—each hold 15 percent, while other investors, including Dell Technologies CEO Michael Dell's investment firm, Dell Family Office, hold smaller, undisclosed stakes.
Markets convulsed after President Donald Trump threatened steep tariffs on eight European nations unless Denmark cedes Greenland, with rhetoric including hints the U.S. might seize the territory by force, triggering a global risk-off move on January 20.
The crypto market shed nearly $150 billion in market capitalization as leveraged positions unwound violently, exposing Bitcoin’s continued treatment as a speculative asset rather than the safe haven its proponents claim it to be.
Tariff Shock Drives Historic Divergence
Trump’s Saturday announcement targeted Germany, France, the UK, the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark with 10% tariffs starting February 1, escalating to 25% by June 1, unless a Greenland deal is reached.
ING economists warned that “additional tariffs of 25% would probably shave 0.2 percentage points off European GDP growth,” compounding recession fears already gripping the continent.
The tariff threat effectively reopened the trade war between the EU and the U.S., despite a temporary truce reached in late July, raising the stakes and bringing a far tougher approach.
European officials brought forward the option of activating the so-called anti-coercion instrument, the EU’s trade “bazooka“, allowing the bloc to impose tariffs and investment limits on offending nations.
French President Emmanuel Macron announced he would request the instrument’s activation, while Manfred Weber from the European Parliament’s largest party indicated the July deal was now “on ice.”
EU capitals is considering hitting U.S. with €93 billion worth of tariffs or restricting American companies from bloc’s market in response to President Donald Trump’s threats, per FT. pic.twitter.com/VuAefTw5yt
European countries hold approximately $8 trillion in U.S. bonds and stocks, making Europe by far the largest U.S. lender and exposing the deep interdependence that could turn this standoff into a full-blown crisis.
Germany’s export-reliant economy faces particularly acute pressure, with ING economist Carsten Brzeski warning the new tariffs would be “absolute poison” for the fragile recovery underway.
German exports to the United States fell 9.4% from January to November compared with a year earlier, and the trade surplus dropped to its lowest level since 2021.
Meanwhile, gold’s parabolic rally pushed prices past $4,800 per ounce to all-time highs.
TD Securities’ Daniel Ghali told Bloomberg that “gold’s rally is about trust. For now, trust has bent, but hasn’t broken. If it breaks, momentum will persist for longer.“
Crypto Markets Suffer Violent Unwind
Bitcoin’s collapse alongside traditional risk assets exposed the crypto’s failure to serve as a geopolitical hedge, despite years of positioning as “digital gold.”
CoinGlass liquidation data revealed $998.33 million in long positions wiped out over 24 hours, with Bitcoin accounting for $440.19 million as cascading margin calls accelerated during thin Asian trading hours.
Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn noted that “Bitcoin isn’t quite doing the thing that it’s built to do, at least in real time,” while Bitunix analyst Dean Chen observed that “among crypto-native investors, it is increasingly framed as a geopolitical hedge and a non-sovereign store of value.”
“However, for the broader market, Bitcoin is still largely traded as a high-beta risk asset,” he concluded.
Derivatives markets paint an increasingly bearish picture for the months ahead.
Sean Dawson of Derive.xyz warned that “rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe—particularly around Greenland—raise the risk of a regime shift back into a higher-volatility environment, a dynamic not currently reflected in spot prices.”
Options data shows strong put open interest concentrated across the $75K-$85K strikes for the June 26 expiry, with Dawson noting that “from an options perspective, the outlook remains mildly bearish through mid-year. Traders are paying a premium for downside protection.“
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone delivered an even more dire assessment, warning that Bitcoin’s inability to hold long-term averages in 2025 suggests the price could eventually drop as low as $10,000.
Duke University’s Campbell Harvey also claimed in academic research that Bitcoin “is hardly a safe-haven asset,” noting its correlation with gold has broken down completely.
Institutional Demand Offers Potential Floor
Despite the bearish technical picture, not all analysts have turned pessimistic.
MEXC data showed that on January 16 alone, Bitcoin ETFs added 1,474 BTC, accounting for $1.48 billion in weekly inflows, while 36,800 BTC left exchanges.
These are signs of strong institutional demand and tightening supply that could limit downside.
In fact, as Cryptonews noted recently, the chance of Trump turning back on the tariff decision is high, with 86%, and that would greatly benefit Bitcoin after February 1.
Historical tariff patterns show 86% chance that Trump reverses Europe tariffs before February 1, as Bitcoin's 24/7 markets prepare to signal policy shifts first.#Trump#Tariffs#Europe#Bitcoinhttps://t.co/eGxEedfe06
Speaking with Cryptonews, Bitfinex analysts also noted that “Bitcoin spot volumes remain normal, funding rates are close to neutral, and there has been no spike in exchange inflows that would signal reactive selling,” suggesting the selloff reflects macro-linked noise rather than a crypto-specific catalyst.
For now, whether Bitcoin’s current consolidation represents capitulation or merely the calm before a deeper storm remains the central question facing crypto markets as February approaches.
The crypto market faced a sharp selloff overnight as renewed trade conflict fears between the United States and the European Union shook global risk sentiment. Bitcoin and major altcoins reversed recent gains, with traders reacting to fresh tariff headlines and the possibility of escalating economic retaliation on both sides of the Atlantic. While crypto is often viewed as a separate market, this move once again showed how quickly digital assets can behave like high-beta risk trades when macro uncertainty spikes.
According to analyst Darkfost, the liquidation impact was immediate and aggressive. More than $800 million worth of leveraged positions were wiped out in a matter of hours, including roughly $768 million in long liquidations. The scale of long closures suggests that traders were positioned for continuation to the upside, but were caught offside as prices rolled over sharply.
What stood out most was where the damage occurred. Darkfost noted that Hyperliquid recorded the largest share of forced liquidations, with $241 million, while Bybit followed closely with $220 million. The wave of liquidations appears partly tied to the announcement of new tariffs targeting Europe, which triggered an equally fast response from EU policymakers, reigniting the broader “trade war” narrative across markets.
CME Opens the Door to Fresh Volatility
Darkfost warns that the timing of this selloff matters as much as the liquidation size. As soon as CME trading opened, Bitcoin saw a sharp downside move, suggesting that institutional flows and macro-linked positioning played a direct role in the shakeout. In past risk-off episodes, the CME open has often acted like a volatility trigger, especially when markets are already fragile, and leverage is elevated across major exchanges.
This is why the next few hours are critical. The same type of move could easily repeat at the opening of the US markets, where liquidity conditions and headline sensitivity tend to amplify reactions. If sellers press again, the market could see another cascade of forced closures, particularly in high-beta altcoins that remain vulnerable after the overnight wipeout.
The message is straightforward: stay cautious and avoid overexposure to leverage while the macro backdrop remains unstable. Liquidations can create sharp bounces, but they can also reset momentum quickly if fear spreads across risk assets.
Darkfost adds that attention should remain on incoming political updates. The market is now trading the narrative, not just the chart. Further statements could arrive at any moment, and as history has shown, Trump often delivers market-moving headlines right in the middle of the weekend.
Bitcoin Holds Fragile Rebound As Crypto Tests Macro Nerves
Bitcoin is trading near $93,100 after a sharp rejection from the $96,000–$97,000 supply zone. The chart shows BTC still struggling below key moving averages, with momentum capped by the declining blue trendline overhead. This reinforces the idea that the latest upside attempt was more of a rebound than a clean trend reversal.
Structurally, price is forming higher lows after the violent breakdown from the $110,000 area. However, the rebound remains vulnerable as long as BTC stays trapped beneath resistance and fails to reclaim the mid-$90,000s with conviction. The recent candles also highlight hesitation, with wicks suggesting aggressive selling into strength.
The red long-term moving average is rising near the low-$90,000s, acting as a potential dynamic support zone. If Bitcoin holds above that level, it keeps the recovery structure intact and prevents a deeper reset toward prior liquidity pockets.
This matters for the broader crypto market. When BTC remains range-bound under resistance, altcoins usually struggle to sustain rallies and become more sensitive to liquidation-driven volatility. Risk appetite can return quickly, but it requires Bitcoin to break above resistance and hold. Until then, crypto remains in a fragile stabilization phase, not a confirmed bullish continuation.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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