Bitcoin’s dominance over the broader crypto market has become the main reference point for traders trying to determine when an altcoin season will finally take shape. At the moment, Bitcoin still controls close to 60% of the total market, and this has so far kept any meaningful altcoin breakout at bay.

However, according to a Bitcoin analyst, history suggests that once this balance begins to shift, the transition into altcoin season tends to happen quickly, often playing out within a tight one-to-two-month timeframe.

Why Bitcoin Dominance Matters For Altcoin Season

In his analysis, the analyst explained that Bitcoin dominance, also known as BTC.D, is an important factor in determining when capital begins rotating into altcoins. BTC dominance measures Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization, and declines in this metric have historically coincided with explosive altcoin rallies. At the time of writing, CoinMarketCap puts the Bitcoin dominance at 59%.

Looking back at 2017, the BTC.D chart shows Bitcoin’s dominance falling very quickly from around 96% in early March to about 60% by mid-May. That drop was the playout of one of the most aggressive altcoin rallies the market has ever seen. 

A similar pattern played out in 2021, when BTC dominance fell from about 60% in early April to near 40% by mid-May. That move coincided with another powerful altcoin expansion, pushing Ethereum and several other major altcoins to new all-time highs. Many of those peaks, particularly among meme coins such as Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, are unbroken to this day.

The most important takeaway from both cycles, according to the analyst, is the speed of the move. In each case, it took just one to two months for a full-blown altcoin season to unfold once Bitcoin dominance began rolling over decisively.

BTC’s Next Move Could Decide Everything

The analyst notes that many investors underestimate how quickly this transition can happen. After waiting through multiple years of accumulation and consolidation, market participants often grow impatient just before the final stage. Historically, however, altcoin season has tended to play out very quickly once conditions align, not gradually over many months. Therefore, investors waiting for an altcoin season can still hold on for that move and not lose focus.

He also pointed to macro signals supporting a risk-on environment, referencing strength in assets such as small-cap equities, gold, and silver hitting all-time highs. These conditions are lining up for capital flowing into higher-beta assets once confidence returns.

Nonetheless, altcoins cannot sustain a true breakout without BTC first making a convincing move. If Bitcoin fails to push to a new all-time high, altcoins may see only short-lived relief rallies. On the other hand, a new Bitcoin all-time high could act as the deciding factor that brings retail traders back into the market and eventually leads to FOMO plus a breakout altcoin season.

Crypto pundit Wimar has claimed that crypto exchanges are manipulating the Bitcoin price, causing it to crash from its 2026 high. This comes amid recent developments with the Trump tariffs, which have caused the flagship crypto to also decline. 

Crypto Pundit Accuses Crypto Exchanges Of Manipulating Bitcoin Price

In an X post, Wimar asserted that crypto exchanges are manipulating the Bitcoin price. He noted how BTC just dumped from $95,500 to $91,900 with no news. The pundit claimed it is the same script, over and over again, as the flagship crypto rose from $89,000 to $95,000 and has now fallen to $91,000, just as it did when it rose from $85,000 to $88,000 and then fell to $84,000. 

Wimar claimed that this is a liquidity hunt, alluding to the flows to prove that the Bitcoin price is manipulated. He noted that within minutes, Wintermute, Binance, Coinbase, and ETF-linked wallets were all active simultaneously. Large blocks were said to have moved from exchange to exchange, with huge market buys hitting thin books, and then, just as fast, these tokens were dumped.  

The crypto pundit also highlighted Arkham data, noting that the flows tell the real story. Wimar claimed that coins move into exchanges right after the pump, which he stated is not a coincidence. The pundit further remarked that these crypto exchanges wait for a setup where liquidity is low, leverage is high, and funding is stretched. 

Wimar asserted that these crypto exchanges run the same play every time, where they first pump the Bitcoin price fast on thin books to trigger FOMO and then liquidate shorts. Retail investors then see green candles and open long positions because the price action appears to be a breakout, but they fall into the trap, according to the pundit. 

Wimar stated that once enough people are stuck in leverage, the coins hit crypto exchanges and selling starts, leading to a Bitcoin price crash. The pundit accused these exchanges of dumping into the demand they just created, forcing fresh longs to get liquidated and farming both long and short traders with no news. 

BTC’s Current Price Action Isn’t Based On Headlines

Wimar doubled down on his accusation of crypto exchanges being responsible for the Bitcoin price crash, stating that BTC doesn’t move like this because of headlines. He claimed that it moves like because leverage piles up, and someone decides it is “payday.” As such, the pundit suggested that the Trump tariffs fears aren’t what is sparking this recent market crash.

Trump had announced fresh tariffs on France, the U.K., the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Sweden, Finland, and Norway over the weekend. The Bitcoin price had remained unchanged following the announcement, but began to crash following reports that the European Union (EU) was considering retaliatory tariffs. 

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $90,900, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin pushed past $95,000 on Tuesday, drawing attention from traders and analysts who say real buying of the coin, rather than bets on derivatives, is driving the move.

According to figures from Coingecko, the cryptocurrency was trading at $95,250 at the time of publication, after a 4.50% gain over 24 hours. Reports have disclosed that $269 million in Bitcoin short positions were wiped out in that span, a wave of liquidations that helped add upward momentum.

Spot Buying Fuels The Move

Several market watchers pointed to spot purchases as the main force. Crypto analyst Will Clemente posted on X that the rally appears to be “led by spot buying.”

That matters because buying the actual asset signals direct demand for Bitcoin itself, not just betting via futures or options. Short sellers were hit hard; their positions were closed out as prices jumped, and that squeeze added fuel to the advance.

Seems like this rally on Bitcoin is led by spot buying and getting faded by perps as funding goes negative while open interest rises + most spot volume in days.

(disclosure currently long btc) pic.twitter.com/pL9C8GFJYR

— Will (@WClementeIII) January 13, 2026

Calls For $100k And The Odds

Some traders are now predicting a quick run to six figures, saying that it is quite clear Bitcoin could reach $100K in the coming weeks and that any dips should be bought.

Based on reports from Polymarket, the prediction markets place about 51% odds on Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 by Feb. 1 and show a 23% chance of a $105,000 print. Bitcoin last fell below $100,000 on Nov. 13, leaving a resistance level that bulls want to clear.

History Gives A Mixed Signal

January’s record for Bitcoin has been modest on average, delivering roughly a 4% gain since 2013. February has tended to be stronger, with an average return of 13%.

These averages do not guarantee the path ahead, but they give traders a context for how the market has behaved in recent years. Market moves can be quick. They can also stall.

Macro Risks And Technical Levels

Traders were watching $90,000 as an important support level while Bitcoin cruised past $95k ahead of US inflation data that could shift bets about rate cuts.

Safe-haven demand has been in play as geopolitics and questions about central bank independence weigh on global markets. Price action is currently tight, with many saying the market sits inside a narrow band and will likely break out one way or the other.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies are rebounding. $94K has just been crossed again for $BTC, and there will likely be retail FOMO creeping in if crypto’s top asset begins teasing $100K in the next few days.

In the chart below, high spikes of:

#Lower or… pic.twitter.com/5pcwtB0mls

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) January 13, 2026

Retail FOMO Could Add Fuel

Meanwhile, crypto sentiment tracker Santiment warned that renewed teasing of $100K could pull retail traders back in, sparking fresh FOMO across the market.

If that happens, more buying from everyday investors could push prices higher quickly. But flows can reverse fast too, and large macro surprises or a loss of momentum would test the bulls.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView