A crypto analyst has shared his latest forecast for the Bitcoin price, highlighting a potential downturn. His analysis breaks down technical indicators and macroeconomic data to predict key movements in the coming months and years. The report has outlined several bearish targets for Bitcoin, cautioning traders to forego excessive bullish expectations, especially as the market shows signs of entering a bearish phase. 

Bitcoin Price Set To Decline Below $55,000

A crypto analyst who calls himself ‘Mr. Wall Street’ on X has released a full technical breakdown of Bitcoin, providing both market and psychological insights while predicting a devastating decline to new lows. He highlighted that the BTC bullish momentum seen earlier this year has collapsed, signaling a shift toward a bear market. 

Key technical indicators used to understand Bitcoin’s market position and direction are signaling the start of a bear phase. The expert highlighted that the weekly 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) monthly cross, and Relative Strength Index (RSI) bearish divergence are now all pointing downward. 

Given this weakness, Mr. Wall Street has predicted that Bitcoin could first retest the weekly EMA50 target near $100,000 before its next decline. The analyst stated that traders are likely planning short positions in the $104,000 to $98,000 range, targeting a potential drop to $74,000 to $68,000. Looking ahead, he projects that the Bitcoin price could crash further by Q4 2026, potentially declining to levels between $54,000 and $60,000. 

Supporting his bearish forecast, the analyst has cited the decline and pressure in financial markets outside of crypto as factors contributing to the broader market downtrend. He also mentioned that the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) planned interest rate hike adds to the current stress, along with market makers who went bankrupt during the October 10 flash crash and are waiting to liquidate billions of dollars in spot assets. 

Mr. Wall Street has dismissed common bullish arguments such as the potential restart of Quantitative Easing, explaining that minor Federal Reserve (FED) balance sheet operations do not signal a complete QE cycle. He stressed that macro bullishness does not justify ignoring short and mid-term risks. Moreover, he warned that those who ignore the reality of a bear case would wish they had shorted the retested $100,000-$125,000 range a year from now. 

Looking beyond the projected bear cycle, Mr. Wall Street believes that Bitcoin could eventually rebound to around $89,000 in 2027. Following this, he expects the cryptocurrency to accelerate toward $110,000 and ultimately $160,000.

Macroeconomic Factors Contribute To Market Decline

Mr. Wall Street also links his bearish Bitcoin forecast to the present weakness in broader macroeconomic conditions. He highlighted that BTC’s struggles are deeply connected to the decisions made by central banks, particularly the FED. 

According to the analyst, the US economy began showing signs of deterioration at the start of 2025. He claimed that key indicators, such as worsening job data and misleading inflation figures, were allegedly ignored. Furthermore, he highlighted that the FED’s inaction and delayed rate cuts prevented necessary economic easing, leaving markets and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin vulnerable to correction.

Crypto analyst Erick Crypto has highlighted a Dogecoin price squeeze, which is currently playing out. Based on this, he mentioned two possible scenarios that could play out for the largest meme coin by market cap. 

Two Possible Scenarios as Dogecoin Price Squeezes

In an X post, Erick Crypto stated that the Dogecoin price is squeezing hard, with a descending triangle and strong horizontal support around $0.136. He added that DOGE is compressing at the apex, which means that a breakout ot breakdown is imminent. The pundit warned that there is high volatility ahead of the meme coin. 

Meanwhile, the crypto analyst stated that the Dogecoin price could see more downside if it loses the $0.13 support. On the other hand, it could record a relief rally if it breaks the trendline. He urged market participants to trade the breakout and not the noise. Erick Crypto’s analysis comes amid the crypto market downturn, which has already sparked a massive crash for DOGE. 

Notably, the Dogecoin price is down over 20% in the last month, since around when the Bitcoin price first crashed below the psychological $100,000 level. The meme coin has also failed to gain traction despite the launch of two DOGE ETFs during this period. Bitcoinist reported that these Dogecoin ETFs have so far underperformed and failed to gain interest from institutional investors. 

Meanwhile, the Dogecoin price and the broader crypto market are at risk of further declines as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to raise interest rates this week. This could tighten liquidity in the market and also lead to a further unwinding of the yen carry trade, which is a negative for crypto assets, including DOGE. 

DOGE Is At A Crossroad

Crypto analyst CryptoCeek stated that the Dogecoin price is at that “classic meme coin fork-in-the-road.” The analyst explained that if the bears push and hold the price under $0.13, the door opens for a full retest of $0.10, where buyers historically aggressively buy the dip. On the other hand, CryptoCeek stated that reclaiming the 20D EMA near $0.14 would scream a bear trap, with $0.19 on the cards for “one of those classic DOGE squeezes.”

Crypto analyst Master remarked that between $0.8 and $0.10 seems likely for the Dogecoin price. He added that the base case is that the meme coin trades sideways until 2028, when the next bull run may start. However, as CryptoCeek suggested, DOGE may bounce from around $0.10 as the bulls step in to accumulate more coins at that price level. 

Bitcoin risks a further drop toward the $70,000 area if the Bank of Japan follows through with an expected interest-rate rise on Dec. 19, analysts focused on macro forces warned.

According to multiple macro-focused voices, the move could sap global liquidity and put fresh downward pressure on risk assets, with some traders already bracing for a sharp pullback.

Japan’s policy shift matters because higher rates tend to strengthen the yen and raise the cost of borrowing. When that happens, traders who previously borrowed cheaply in yen to invest elsewhere are often forced to unwind those positions.

That process can pull money out of global markets in a short period of time, and Bitcoin has often felt that impact as investors cut exposure during risk-off stretches.

BOJ Tightening Drains Global Liquidity

According to AndrewBTC, every BOJ hike since 2024 has coincided with Bitcoin drawdowns of more than 20%. Based on reports, the analyst pointed to declines of roughly 23% in March 2024, 26% in July 2024, and 31% in January 2025.

BREAKING: JAPAN WILL CRASH $BTC

Bank of Japan is set to hike rates +25 bps on Dec 19. Japan = largest holder of US government debt

Look at the $BTC chart:

Every BoJ rate hike → Bitcoin dumps over 20%+

• March 2024 → -23% • July 2024 → -26% • January 2025 →… pic.twitter.com/grN3QRNUg4

— AndrewBTC (@cryptoctlt) December 13, 2025

Traders are not only watching central bank calendars. Bitcoin’s daily chart also flashed a classic bear flag formation after a steep fall from the $105,000–$110,000 area in November.

Market Positioning Widens Ahead Of Key Data

Bitcoin slipped below $90,000 in thin trading on Sunday, a move that traders took as a cautionary sign rather than a definitive trigger. Based on reports, Ether held up better than many altcoins, suggesting selective risk taking in the market.

Traders are positioning before a busy slate of US data and central bank events that could sway flows. Analyst EX bluntly warned BTC will collapse “below $70,000” under the stated macro conditions, a stark forecast that highlights how crowded bets can amplify moves when liquidity is pulled.

EVERY TIME JAPAN HIKES RATES, BITCOIN DUMPS 20–25%

NEXT WEEK, THEY WILL HIKE RATES TO 75 BPS AGAIN.

IF THE PATTERN HOLDS, $BTC WILL DUMP BELOW $70,000 ON DECEMBER 19.

POSITION ACCORDINGLY. pic.twitter.com/IWU8JbXjn3

— ΞX (@rektbyEX) December 13, 2025

What This Means For Investors

The story tying BOJ policy to Bitcoin’s swings is simple in outline: when funding costs in Japan rise, global borrowing becomes pricier, and risk assets can be sold as positions are reduced.

That dynamic helps explain why past BOJ moves lined up with 20-30% declines in Bitcoin. Still, markets often try to price events ahead of time; a hike that’s already built into prices may have a smaller effect than one that comes as a surprise.

Featured image from Nikkei Asia, chart from TradingView

Crypto pundit Crypto Wimar has explained why the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices crashed, highlighting the continuous selling pressure. The crypto market is also at risk of further downward pressure due to macro factors such as the impending Japan rate hike. 

Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And XRP Prices Crashed

In an X post, Crypto Wimar revealed that Wintermute has dumped 40% of its holdings over the last three weeks, which has contributed to the crash in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices. The crypto pundit further noted that the market maker is still dumping millions in BTC and ETH on Binance, which puts these coins at risk of further declines. 

The Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices are also crashing as crypto market investors brace for a Japan interest rate hike by the BOJ at their December 19 meeting. Polymarket data shows that there is currently a 97.4% chance that the BOJ will increase rates by 25 basis points. A Japan rate hike impacts the crypto market as it puts the yen carry trade in focus, with investors moving to sell their assets before the yen strengthens and their debt becomes more expensive. 

Meanwhile, it is worth mentioning that the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices have crashed after every Fed rate cut this year. This similar price action is playing out as the Fed lowered rates by 25 bps last week. These crypto assets had seen a notable rebound prior to the Fed rate decision last week, indicating that the cut was already priced in. 

Demand for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP also appears to be dwindling, even among institutional investors. Crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin treasury growth is losing momentum, noting that the accumulation pace is slowing despite the fact that 117 new companies added BTC to their treasuries this year. Ethereum treasury company BitMine is also the only company that has continued to accumulate ETH at an impressive pace amid this market downturn. 

BTC At Risk Of Drop Below $50,000

Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto has indicated that the Bitcoin price could still drop below $50,000, which also puts Ethereum and XRP at risk of crashing. In an X post, the analyst raised the possibility that a BTC bear pennant is forming.

He noted that this is not a structure that market investors will typically want to see in a bull market. Titan of Crypto added that the structure is still developing, but it is one that is worth monitoring closely. 

Meanwhile, the analyst’s accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price could drop below $50,000 as soon as February next year. It is worth mentioning that veteran trader Peter Brandt had also earlier predicted that BTC could drop below $50,000 based on his belief that the flagship crypto is already in a bear market.