Welcome to Edition 8.21 of the Rocket Report! Weβre back after the Thanksgiving holiday with more launch news. Most of the big stories over the last couple of weeks came from abroad. Russian rockets and launch pads didnβt fare so well. Chinaβs launch industry celebrated several key missions. SpaceX was busy, too, with seven launches over the last two weeks, six of them carrying more Starlink Internet satellites into orbit. We expect between 15 and 20 more orbital launch attempts worldwide before the end of the year.
As always, we welcome reader submissions. If you donβt want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets, as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.
Another Sarmat failure. A Russian intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) fired from an underground silo on the countryβs southern steppe on November 28 on a scheduled test to deliver a dummy warhead to a remote impact zone nearly 4,000 miles away. The missile didnβt even make it 4,000 feet, Ars reports. Russiaβs military has been silent on the accident, but the missileβs crash was seen and heard for miles around the Dombarovsky air base in Orenburg Oblast near the Russian-Kazakh border. A video posted by theΒ Russian blog site MilitaryRussia.ru on Telegram and widely shared on other social media platforms showed the missile veering off course immediately after launch before cartwheeling upside down, losing power, and then crashing a short distance from the launch site.
Solana Mobile is preparing to launch its SKR token in January, marking the start of a new phase for its open mobile ecosystem. In a Nov. 3 announcement on X, Solana Mobile introduced SKR as a tool to help usersβ¦
Chinaβs first attempt to land an orbital-class rocket may have ended in a fiery crash, but the company responsible for the mission had a lot to celebrate with the first flight of its new methane-fueled launcher.
LandSpace, a decade-old company based in Beijing, launched its new Zhuque-3 rocket for the first time at 11 pm EST Tuesday (04:0 UTC Wednesday), or noon local time at the Jiuquan launch site in northwestern China.
Powered by nine methane-fueled engines, the Zhuque-3 (Vermillion Bird-3) rocket climbed away from its launch pad with more than 1.7 million pounds of thrust. The 216-foot-tall (66-meter) launcher headed southeast, soaring through clear skies before releasing its first stage booster about two minutes into the flight.
Thereβs a race in China among several companies vying to become the next to launch and land an orbital-class rocket, and the starting gun could go off as soon as tonight.
LandSpace, one of several maturing Chinese rocket startups, is about to launch the first flight of its medium-lift Zhuque-3 rocket. Liftoff could happen around 11 pm EST tonight (04:00 UTC Wednesday), or noon local time at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwestern China.
Airspace warning notices advising pilots to steer clear of the rocketβs flight path suggest LandSpace has a launch window of about two hours. When it lifts off, the Zhuque-3 (Vermillion Bird-3) rocket will become the largest commercial launch vehicle ever flown in China. Whatβs more, LandSpace will become the first Chinese launch provider to attempt a landing of its first stage booster, using the same tried-and-true return method pioneered by SpaceX and, more recently, Blue Origin in the United States.
Avalanche (AVAX) is coiling for a massive move. A potent Wolfe Wave pattern is forming alongside a test of a key weekly trendline. This structural confluence signals that the market is reaching a point of maximum compression, indicating that a significant directional breakout is imminent.
Wolfe Wave Formation Signals Strong Future Move
According to a recent technical analysis by BeLaunch, AVAX is shaping a notable Wolfe Wave pattern, a formation known for sparking strong directional moves once completed. This developing structure reflects tightening price action and growing pressure within the market, hinting that a significant breakout could be on the horizon.
At the same time, Avalanche is pressing against a descending weekly trendline that has consistently acted as a major resistance level. A breakout above it would reinforce the bullish implications of the Wolfe Wave, while a rejection could force the asset back into a prolonged consolidation.
For those eyeing long-term accumulation, BeLaunch points to the $11β$8 range as the most compelling buy zone. This region could provide strong support and aligns with key structural levels, making it an attractive opportunity for investors preparing for the next potential upside cycle.
Historical Precedent: The September 2023 Rally Setup
BeLaunch went on to highlight that the current Avalanche setup closely mirrors the conditions seen in September 2023, just before a major rally unfolded. The resemblance between the two periods offers a valuable historical reference, suggesting that the market may once again be preparing for a significant move.
The analysis emphasizes that the same pattern is taking shape once again, increasing the probability of an upward move if price action aligns with previous behavior. Repeated technical scenarios often carry weight because markets tend to respond consistently under familiar conditions. If AVAX continues to respect this structure, it could set the foundation for a potential bullish breakout.
BeLaunch also noted the importance of continued monitoring as the pattern progresses. Tracking price action, market sentiment, and overall momentum will be crucial in determining whether the bullish outlook gains confirmation. Any future decisions or expectations will rely on clear signals from the pattern as well as shifts in broader market dynamics.
Avalanche is currently trading around $13.06, reflecting a mild intraday pullback as the market adjusts to recent volatility. With a market capitalization of approximately $6.3 billion, AVAX remains one of the notable assets in the broader crypto landscape. Trading activity has been strong, with its 24-hour volume sitting between $428 million and $445 million, signaling ongoing interest from both short-term traders and long-term participants.
A Russian intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) fired from an underground silo on the countryβs southern steppe Friday on a scheduled test to deliver a dummy warhead to a remote impact zone nearly 4,000 miles away. The missile didnβt even make it 4,000 feet.
Russiaβs military has been silent on the accident, but the missileβs crash was seen and heard for miles around the Dombarovsky air base in Orenburg Oblast near the Russian-Kazakh border.
A video posted by the Russian blog site MilitaryRussia.ru on Telegram and widely shared on other social media platforms showed the missile veering off course immediately after launch before cartwheeling upside down, losing power, and then crashing a short distance from the launch site. The missile ejected a component before it hit the ground, perhaps as part of a payload salvage sequence, according to Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva.
Around this time last year, officials at United Launch Alliance projected 2025 would be their busiest year ever. Tory Bruno, ULAβs chief executive, told reporters the company would launch as many as 20 missions this year, with roughly an even split between the legacy Atlas V launcher and its replacementβthe Vulcan rocket.
Now, itβs likely that ULA will close out 2025 with six flightsβfive with the Atlas V and just one with the Vulcan rocket the company is so eager to accelerate into service. Six flights would make 2025 the busiest launch year for ULA since 2022, but it would still fall well short of the companyβs forecast.
Last week, ULA announced its next launch is scheduled for December 15. An Atlas V will loft another batch of broadband satellites for the Amazon Leo network, formerly known as Project Kuiper, from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida. This will be ULAβs last launch of the year.
The commander of the military unit responsible for running the Cape Canaveral spaceport in Florida expects SpaceX to begin launching Starship rockets there next year.
Launch companies with facilities near SpaceXβs Starship pads are not pleased. SpaceXβs two chief rivals, Blue Origin and United Launch Alliance, complained last year that SpaceXβs proposal of launching as many as 120 Starships per year from Floridaβs Space Coast could force them to routinely clear personnel from their launch pads for safety reasons.
This isnβt the first time Blue Origin and ULA have tried to throw up roadblocks in front of SpaceX. The companies sought to prevent NASA from leasing a disused launch pad to SpaceX in 2013, but they lost the fight.
The rocket company founded a quarter-century ago by billionaire Jeff Bezos made history Thursday with the pinpoint landing of an 18-story-tall rocket on a floating platform in the Atlantic Ocean.
The on-target touchdown came nine minutes after the New Glenn rocket, built and operated by Bezosβ company Blue Origin, lifted off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida, at 3:55 pm EST (20:55 UTC). The launch was delayed from Sunday, first due to poor weather at the launch site in Florida, then by a solar storm that sent hazardous radiation toward Earth earlier this week.
βWe achieved full mission success today, and I am so proud of the team,β said Dave Limp, CEO of Blue Origin. βIt turns out Never Tell Me The Odds (Blue Originβs nickname for the first stage) had perfect oddsβnever before in history has a booster this large nailed the landing on the second try. This is just the beginning as we rapidly scale our flight cadence and continue delivering for our customers.β