Coinbase (COIN), the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the US, has experienced a significant decline in its stock valuation, dropping nearly 40% from its peak of $444 in July to its current trading level of around $271 per share. This, amid market fluctuations and heightened volatility in the broader crypto market, impacting the exchange’s stock performance.

Bernstein Forecasts New Bullish Phase For Coinbase

Despite these challenges, analysts at Bernstein hold an optimistic outlook on Coinbase’s stock price, suggesting a potential new bullish phase that could propel COIN to surpass previous all-time highs and reach levels above $500. 

Bernstein maintains a price target of $510 on Coinbase, underlining the exchange’s shift from a trading-centric platform to what analysts dub an emerging “everything exchange.”

Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani highlighted the delicate market conditions, citing crypto price fluctuations influencing listed crypto-exposed equities. 

However, Bernstein distinguishes the current market environment from past crypto downturns, noting that speculative excess primarily affects what they refer to as “MSTR copycats,” referencing Strategy’s (previously MicroStrategy) stock performance. 

Central to Bernstein’s bullish thesis is Coinbase’s strategic diversification away from volatile spot trading revenue. They assert that exchange is evolving into a comprehensive financial platform.

The analysts emphasize that clearer regulatory guidelines in the US could drive a revaluation of these business lines, bridging the gap with offshore competitors benefiting from faster token listings and fundraising fees. 

Coinbase’s foray into token issuance through a launchpad-style model, exemplified by Monad’s (MON) recent listing, demonstrates growing market interest. Bernstein notes that these launches, directly influencing trading activity, can stimulate a cycle of issuance, listing, and heightened trading volume.

Confident Ratings For COIN

Looking ahead, one of the exchange’s most notable catalysts is the upcoming product showcase on December 17, anticipated to unveil developments in tokenized equities, prediction markets, and other tools expanding the exchange’s offerings beyond spot crypto trading. 

The integration with Deribit is also expected to further bolster Coinbase’s derivatives expansion, positioning the exchange closer to platforms like Robinhood as both entities diversify their product offerings.

On the consumer front, the exchange’s Base app, focusing on wallet services, payments, and social features, acts as a centralized access point for the broader token markets, reaffirming the analysts’ bullish predictions. 

Bernstein’s reaffirmed “Buy” rating on Coinbase with a massive $510 price target underscores the firm’s confidence in COIN’s growth trajectory. Monness Crespi’s recent upgrade from “Neutral” to “Buy” with a $375 target further adds to the bullish sentiment surrounding the stock’s valuation amid falling prices. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Leading banking institutions in traditional finance (TradFi) are reportedly partnering with US-based cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) to explore pilots related to stablecoins, custody solutions, and trading options. 

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announced this during his appearance at the New York Times Dealbook Summit on Wednesday, as reported by Bloomberg.

Coinbase CEO Cautions Banks On Crypto Resistance

Armstrong emphasized that leading financial institutions recognize this as an opportunity for growth. “The best banks are leaning into this as an opportunity,” he stated, although he refrained from naming any specific banks involved in these initiatives. 

During his speech, the executive also voiced his concerns about institutions that resist participating in the digital asset ecosystem. He asserted that those who oppose it will be left behind.

This sentiment aligns with remarks Armstrong made six months ago, where he predicted that eventually, every major bank would integrate cryptocurrency into their operations. 

He views this technology as a means to modernize the financial system, stating, “We can power a variety of things for them.” He noted that some banks are looking for custodial solutions, while others are interested in developing their own stablecoins.

COIN Shares Surge 5%

Adding weight to this discussion, Larry Fink, CEO of the world’s largest asset manager and crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuer BlackRock, participated in the event alongside Armstrong. 

Fink, who previously voiced skepticism about cryptocurrencies, described Bitcoin (BTC) as a safe haven asset despite the cryptocurrency’s crash toward $83,000 on Monday. 

“You own Bitcoin because you’re frightened of your physical security. You own it because you’re frightened of your financial security,” he remarked. 

On the financial side, Coinbase’s stock performance reflects the positive sentiment in the cryptocurrency market amid recovering prices. Trading under the ticker COIN on the Nasdaq, Coinbase’s shares closed Wednesday at nearly $277, marking a 5% increase. 

This uplift coincides with broader gains in the cryptocurrency sector, notably led by the recent price performance of Ethereum (ETH), followed by Bitcoin, XRP, Binance Coin (BNB), and other notable tokens such as Solana (SOL), all of which have shown significant recoveries this week after a challenging month.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

The crypto market is facing a wave of misinterpretation as Coinbase’s large-scale wallet rebalancing, which began on November 22, 2025, continues to distort major on-chain indicators. Many dashboards now display what appears to be an unprecedented $68 billion Long-Term Holder (LTH) “sell” spike — but according to analysts, this is not real distribution. Instead, it’s the direct result of Coinbase transferring coins internally as part of its routine wallet restructuring process.

This distinction is critical. Several prominent analysts and market commentators have highlighted massive outflows, huge shifts in LTH supply, and unusual wallet movements, yet many have failed to mention the underlying cause: Coinbase’s internal reshuffling. Without this context, market participants might wrongly conclude that long-term holders are panic-selling at scale, reinforcing fear during an already fragile market environment.

These rebalancing events have happened before, but the size of Coinbase’s holdings means even normal internal operations can trigger dramatic spikes in on-chain metrics such as LTH Net Position Change, Exchange Netflow, and Spent Output Age Bands.

Coinbase Internal Transfers Distorted Key On-Chain Metrics

According to detailed analysis by Axel Adler, Coinbase’s internal migration of approximately 800,000 BTC created one of the largest distortions in on-chain data ever recorded — without a single coin being sold.

The exchange executed 286 transactions totaling 798,636 BTC, moving funds from legacy P2PKH (Pay-to-Public-Key-Hash) addresses to modern P2WPKH (SegWit) addresses. This technical reorganization produced an artificial $68 billion “realized profit” spike, misleading many market observers into interpreting it as massive long-term holder distribution.

This large UTXO migration disrupted several major on-chain indicators. LTH and STH Supply metrics were temporarily skewed, showing a sharp drop in Long-Term Holder supply and a rise in Short-Term Holder supply — a pattern typically associated with heavy “smart money” selling. In reality, no distribution occurred; Coinbase simply restructured its internal wallets.

The distortion also affected LTH Realized Profit/Loss models, which reflected tens of billions in phantom gains, and HODL Waves, where UTXO ages were “reset,” suggesting long-term holders had suddenly spent old coins. Even Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) showed a significant spike, mimicking an “old coin awakening,” though the activity was entirely internal.

These disruptions highlight how exchange operations can temporarily break the reliability of on-chain metrics, requiring careful interpretation from analysts and investors.

Total Market Rebounds but Remains Under Critical Pressure

The Total Crypto Market Cap chart shows a sharp rebound after tagging the $2.88T zone, a level that aligns closely with the 100-week moving average (green), acting as a key structural support in previous cycles. This bounce has pushed total valuation back above the $3T mark, but the broader trend remains fragile after weeks of heavy selling across majors like BTC and ETH.

Price structure highlights a clear breakdown from the $3.6T–$3.8T consolidation zone, followed by a fast, impulsive decline—mirroring the speed of corrections seen during 2021 and mid-2022. Despite the latest recovery candle, the market remains below the 50-week moving average (blue), signaling that buyers must regain momentum quickly to avoid deeper downside toward the 200-week moving average near $2T.

Volume has surged on recent sell-offs, showing widespread forced selling and capitulation behavior—a pattern consistent with cycle mid-reset phases. The rebound, however, shows reduced sell volume, suggesting exhaustion from bearish participants. To confirm strength, total market cap must reclaim the $3.25T–$3.3T area, which currently acts as the first major resistance.

Failure to break above this zone risks further consolidation or a retest of the $2.8T support. For now, the market shows early signs of stabilization, but broader recovery depends on Bitcoin’s ability to sustain its own rebound and restore confidence across altcoins.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com