As XRP attempts to climb to higher levels, an analyst affirmed that the altcoin is “doing what it needs to do” to continue its bullish rally, highlighting multiple key structures in key timeframes.

XRP Enters Inflection Point

After retesting the $1.90 area on Friday morning, XRP saw a 4.6% intraday bounce toward the mid-zone of its local range. Over the past five days, the cryptocurrency has been hovering in the $1.85-$2.00 price range, failing to hold the upper zone of this range.

Market watcher ChartNerd pointed out a key reversal pattern that could signal a massive price expansion may be around the corner, noting that the altcoin is at a “critical inflection point” as it retests a macro support zone.

He explained that a running flat ABC correction formation is “a sophisticated structure where the failure of the ‘C’ wave to breach previous lows signals underlying bullish strength.”

XRP has been mirroring the same structure over the past 400 days, which would point “toward a structural breakout, marking the transition from a yearly long base into a new primary uptrend” if it resolves.

As the chart shows, “the wave counts repeating toward the structure are evident in XRP’s price action,” and as long as the macro support holds, around the $1.80 area, the C wave “could be working in the bulls’ defense.”

We could be just building a base above $1.80, marking the C wave in this running flat correction before the major breakout.

ChartNerd added that there could be a scenario in which XRP deviates below its major support before a V-shape recovery. However, he warned that losing this area would not be healthy, detailing that the only way to invalidate the pattern would be for the price to close below the structure’s support, retest it as resistance, and drop to lower levels.

XRP’s Price Defends Macro Support

The analyst emphasized the importance of the $1.80 level, noting that XRP has been defending this territory for over a year and could lead to a new all-time high (ATH) rally.

“This is a macro accumulation zone, and we evidently also have two major levels of descending resistance for XRP,” he detailed, highlighting that when the first multi-month descending resistance broke, the altcoin rallied to a new all-time high.

It’s pretty simple: we have descending resistance on our heads at the moment, and we once had a point of contact on this resistance at the $2.40 high (…) So, at this moment in time, the simplicity tells us: break the descending resistance, and this is where XRP really starts gearing up for further expansion.

Based on this, ChartNerd asserted that if the altcoin defends the $1.80 macro support, then a similar rally is likely. Similarly, he pointed to a bullish reversal structure building below the key $2.70 resistance on XRP’s chart.

Per the post, the cryptocurrency formed a three-month falling wedge pattern that was broken out of during the early January rally. Now, the price is retesting the pattern’s breakout level as support and could be preparing to climb toward the level it started forming.

“So XRP just needs to defend the guard at $1.80, and this is where we could be looking for that sort of major expansion and looking to press back up to the target of $2.70,” before potentially challenging its pre-Q4 range, he concluded.

XRP has given back all of its early‑year gains, sliding toward the $1.90. Despite the pullback, several on‑chain and market indicators are pointing to a possible breakout from current levels, driven largely by a sharp decline in XRP held on exchanges. 

XRP Exchange Balances Slide To 1.5B

Market analyst Sam Daodu notes that over the past months, a substantial portion of XRP has steadily moved off centralized trading platforms and into long‑term storage and institutional custody. 

On‑chain figures indicate that XRP exchange balances dropped from roughly 4 billion tokens in early 2025 to about 1.5 billion by late December. This 57% decline represents the steepest annual reduction in XRP exchange supply on record.

Data from CryptoQuant reinforces this trend, showing shrinking XRP reserves on major trading platforms such as Binance, where balances continued to fall into early 2026. At the same time, wallet accumulation has increased, particularly among institutional custody accounts. 

Daodu argues that with fewer tokens available on exchanges, buying pressure that previously moved XRP only marginally can now drive gains of 10% to 15% within days. 

When combined with approximately $1.37 billion in XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows recorded since November 2025, Daodu believes the conditions favor a potential breakout toward the $4 to $5 range, rather than another rally that stalls below $3.

Bullish, Base, And Bearish Scenarios

Looking ahead, Daodu outlines three broad price paths for XRP, each tied to how exchange balances and ETF inflows evolve. In a bullish scenario, the altcoin could move into the $4 to $5 range if monthly ETF inflows average $300-$500 million and exchange balances fall below 1.5 billion tokens. 

A more neutral outcome would see XRP trading between $2.50 and $3.50. This scenario assumes ETF inflows slow to roughly $50 million to $70 million per week and exchange balances continue to decline at a steadier pace. 

The bearish case hinges on the possibility that the supply contraction thesis proves overstated. If rapid transfers refill exchange order books, escrow releases increase selling pressure, or ETF demand slows due to tighter macroeconomic conditions, XRP could lose support. 

In that scenario, prices may fall below $2.00 and revisit the $1.60 level during periods of risk aversion. Prolonged uncertainty could see XRP trading between $1.50 and $2.00 for much of 2026, according to the analyst. 

At the time of writing, the altcoin was trading at $1.94. This represented losses of 4% and 8% over seven and fourteen-day periods, respectively. This positions the fifth-largest cryptocurrency in terms of market cap 46% below the current all-time high of $3.64 reached back in July of last year.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Certified Elliott Wave analyst XForceGlobal (@XForceGlobal) told followers on X that “$5+ remains on the horizon,” arguing that the token’s past year of range-bound trading is validating an Elliott Wave “flat” correction that typically resolves with a sharp, final move before a continuation higher.

In a 10-minute video shared alongside the post, the analyst framed XRP’s recent price action as the late stage of a flat pattern, an extended period where neither bulls nor bears can force a clean trend. “A flat occurs when the market fails to trend on both sides. They’re basically evenly matched,” he said. “And that’s not a sign of weakness, it’s a sign of balance.”

XRP Traders ‘Exhausted’ As Breakout Nears

XForceGlobal positioned the structure as a corrective phase within a larger bullish sequence, describing the market as forming a new floor rather than breaking down. “This is where the buyers and sellers enter a Mexican standoff with each other, creating a new price floor,” he said, adding that the sideways feel is the point: “They’re not designed to go anywhere, basically. And the markets naturally alternate between expansion and compression.”

The analyst emphasized the psychological aspect of prolonged consolidation, arguing that flats tend to “eliminate even the leverage traders through time rather than price” by exhausting both sides. “By the time the flat actually resolves, which is very close, in my opinion, most traders are emotionally already exhausted,” he said. “Positioning has been pretty much neutralized, and the path for continuation, to me, becomes very clear.”

In Elliott Wave terms, XForceGlobal described the flat as a three-part A-B-C structure, with waves A and B unfolding as corrective “three-wave” moves and wave C completing as an impulsive “five-wave” move. He argued that this final phase is the moment the market stops drifting and forces a resolution.

“Wave C must be impulsive because it represents the resolution of the balance that we have for waves A and B,” he said. “It’s not the continuation of a larger structure to the downside.” He framed impulsiveness as behavioral rather than directional, attributing it to urgency and follow-through once one side “decisively gives up,” clearing out the range that built during the earlier legs.

That distinction matters for positioning, because his base case anticipates one more decisive shakeout before a move higher. He said the market is currently in an “expanded flat” configuration where wave B pushed above the prior high, and he expects a break of local structure “once” before the market turns up. He highlighted $1.70 as a prior low that could be undercut as part of the process without invalidating the larger setup, so long as broader support holds.

XForceGlobal’s post leaned heavily on conviction built over time—“I didn’t spend 2,000+ days accumulating XRP for no reason!”—while also stressing that he has already taken some profit. In the transcript, he said he “personally took some profits around the $2.70 level” and would continue to “sell into strength.”

On upside expectations, he called for higher levels “in this current cycle,” tying potential targets to the duration of the consolidation. “The longer that we distribute here, the higher the targets are going to be,” he said, adding that “a minimum of a $6 range all the way up to even the $14 range is my personal target.”

He also flagged conditions that would change the trade management. If the market shows “red flags” and breaks further structure than he expects, he suggested that is where risk management should take priority.

For XRP traders, the practical takeaway from his framework is timing and path, not direction: a final, forceful leg lower could still be consistent with a bullish continuation thesis while a deeper structural breakdown would challenge it.

At press time, XRP traded at $1.91.

A significant short squeeze may be on the horizon for XRP investors, potentially serving as the main catalyst for a rally that could push prices beyond the all-time high of $3.90. 

Market analyst Bird made these predictions in a recent post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), highlighting key observations from his analysis.

Key Liquidity Zones For XRP

Bird shared a chart that illustrates where leveraged positions—both long and short—are concentrated in the market. He explained that the colored bands on the chart indicate levels of liquidity, where the potential for forced buying or selling could occur due to stop-loss orders and liquidations. 

The analysis of the altcoin’s daily chart heatmap categorizes liquidity into two distinct zones: red, signifying deep liquidity, and lighter colors indicating less liquidity.

From his observations, Bird noted that price movements away from low liquidity areas tend to occur rapidly. He explained this process: when prices approach zones with significant stop-loss clusters, they often trigger large sell-offs, wiping out long positions. 

Price Targets $4.20

Following these movements, the price typically rotates back toward shorts, leading to additional liquidation events. Bird pointed out that on Sunday, a number of long XRP positions were liquidated. 

Now, he sees a dense liquidity pocket forming around the $4.20 mark, primarily from short XRP positions. This situation incentivizes market makers to drive prices toward this liquidity to close out those trades, rather than moving away from it. 

As a result, Bird expressed confidence that the current XRP price rally is far from over. He believes that a new all-time high is imminent, as the potential for a substantial short squeeze looms. 

At the time of writing, the fifth-largest cryptocurrency on the market was trading at $2, having briefly dropped to $1.84 earlier on Monday. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP could be approaching an inflection point as a closely watched chart pattern tightens into its apex and broader “risk-on” signals in equities flash green, according to XRPL developer Bird (@Bird_XRPL).

In a series of posts on X, Bird, the developer behind XRPL meme coin DROP, pointed to XRP’s hourly structure as setting up for a decisive move “before the end of the week,” arguing that a technical breakout could accelerate quickly toward a nearby upside objective.

“Take a look at XRP on the hourly. A move is about to happen before the end of the week,” Bird wrote alongside a chart showing a contracting triangle with price compressing into the tip. “A measured move if we send upwards could push us straight to that $2.69 mark which finally gets us into ‘bull run’ mode.”

Russell 2000 Breakout Puts XRP on Alert

Beyond the short-term pattern, Bird anchored his thesis to US small caps, arguing that the Russell 2000’s behavior has historically mattered for XRP and the broader altcoin complex.

“The Russell 2000 is about to close its highest weekly close in history. That matters ALOT for XRP,” Bird said. “Historically, XRP and altcoins have always tracked the Russell 2000 extremely closely. It’s the true risk on index for mid caps (not mega caps like the S&P or MAG7 where most capital has been parked).”

Bird’s argument is that XRP still trades more like a mid-cap risk asset than a mega-cap “store of value” proxy, making the Russell’s breakout a useful macro tell for when speculative capital rotates back into higher beta exposures. He described the current backdrop as “capital rotating” and “risk … back on,” suggesting that the market may be entering a window where positioning can change quickly if narratives align.

In a longer follow-up thread, Bird described XRP’s extended consolidation as increasingly out of sync with what he views as constructive macro conditions across risk assets.

“We’re at a genuinely clinical moment for XRP. We’ve gone sideways for over a year, yet the Russell 2000 is now in full price discovery, other stock markets have been at all time highs for a long time, metals are elevated, and Bitcoin dominance is chopping at levels that historically dumps at,” he wrote.

Bird also pointed to a prior episode as a reference point: “In November ’24, the Russell turned green and XRP went parabolic roughly 10 days later,” he said, arguing that this time the Russell has gone further by reclaiming highs and holding strength across timeframes. In his view, the remaining constraint is rotation, not necessarily a sharp drawdown in metals or other assets, but simply a pause that allows risk appetite to re-price.

On XRP and Ripple specific context, Bird said “acquisitions done, partnerships rolling out, NDAs lifting, legal clarity forming,” and argued that the market is nearing a point where “a single narrative, catalyst, or push can ignite XRP fast.”

The key near-term test is whether the tightening technical structure resolves upward as Bird expects and whether cross-asset risk appetite continues to support alt beta. If both align, Bird’s framework suggests traders will be watching for a momentum break that could carry XRP toward the $2.69 objective and, in his view, potentially open the door to a faster path toward fresh cycle highs.

At press time, XRP traded at $2.06.

Market expert Bird has recently issued a bold forecast for XRP, the fifth-largest cryptocurrency, suggesting that it could experience a major upside of 800% within this year. If this prediction holds true, XRP could reach a new all-time high of $18.40 per coin.

Forecast Indicates XRP Might Rival Ethereum

Bird’s forecast hinges on the XRP/BTC ratio, which he predicts will reach 1:5,000 by the end of 2026. This means that 5,000 XRP would be equivalent to 1 Bitcoin (BTC). Currently, the XRP/BTC ratio trades at approximately 0.00002235. 

For Bird’s envisioned target to materialize, the ratio must increase to 0.0002 BTC per token, representing a substantial gain of around 794% from current levels.

With a total supply of 100 billion coins, this price projection implies an overall valuation of approximately $1.84 trillion for XRP. Such a figure would place the cryptocurrency in close competition with Ethereum—and striking distance of Bitcoin’s market cap.

Additional Price Scenarios For The Altcoin

Market expert Sam Daodu also outlined alternative scenarios for XRP’s future performance. In a base case, where the altcoin garners continued institutional support but doesn’t close the gap with Bitcoin’s market capitalization, the price could range between $3 and $4. 

This outcome would depend on exchange traded funds (ETFs) attracting a “few billion in assets” while Bitcoin’s dominance falls to the 40–50% range during a broader altcoin rotation.

Conversely, there exists a bear case where macroeconomic challenges or obstacles within the crypto ecosystem could hinder XRP’s price growth. Factors such as geopolitical instability could redirect capital back to Bitcoin and gold, while banks might opt for private ledgers and established stablecoins instead of adopting XRP. 

Monthly escrow releases from Ripple of 1 billion coins, accompanied by a potential diminishing exchange-traded fund demand, might cap any potential upside action for the cryptocurrency, leaving it to trade around its current trading prices of $2.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

An XRP Ledger ecosystem developer behind the meme coin DROP is drawing attention after predicting a sharp shift in XRP’s relative value versus bitcoin this year, framing it as the start of a new “price discovery” phase for the token.

Bird, who posts under @Bird_XRPL, wrote on X yesterday that “5,000 XRP will be worth 1 Bitcoin in 2026,” then clarified his math with a specific price path in mind. “I said I think 5,000 XRP will be worth 1 Bitcoin,” he added. “For example 5,000 * $27 (XRP) = $135K (BTC).”

While the post reads like a headline-grabbing forecast, the structure of Bird’s claim is a ratio trade: XRP outperforming BTC enough that 5,000 XRP could purchase one bitcoin. By anchoring the example to $27 XRP and a $135,000 BTC, Bird effectively argued that the market’s next leg higher could involve a meaningful repricing of XRP’s utility narrative rather than a simple beta move to bitcoin.

XRP Entering ‘Price Discovery’ Phase

The call arrived alongside a series of posts linking XRP’s setup to broader risk-asset conditions and upcoming US macro catalysts. Bird argued that “above $2.70 $XRP opens the path to all time highs and beyond,” presenting that level as a technical inflection point. “Take a breath. Stay present. Remember this moment,” he wrote. “This is the end of a 7–8 year suppression and the beginning of true price discovery.”

Bird’s longer thesis, posted on Jan. 11, focused less on short-term trading and more on a personal allocation framework that treats XRP as a long-duration hold. “XRP should be considered as part of your life saving plans,” he wrote, contrasting bank deposit yields with inflation drag.

“Most people keep their money in banks earning around 4–6% a year and feel comfortable doing so, but they rarely factor in inflation. Over time, the buying power of the US dollar and the British pound for example has fallen so much, meaning your money often grows on paper while quietly losing value in the real world.”

He then positioned XRP as an alternative store of value tied to expanding usage rather than fiat purchasing power. “That’s where XRP comes in. XRP has spent years suppressed by legal uncertainty, yet during that time the technology continued to mature. Now we have clarity, and we can clearly see what’s being built,” Bird wrote, pointing to “cross border payments, institutional adoption, stablecoins like RLUSD, and real world assets being tokenised on chain.”

Bird framed the trade-off as custody and counterparty risk versus upside participation. “That’s why I personally treat XRP as a long term savings vehicle rather than a short term trade,” he wrote. “You can self custody it, store it on a cold wallet, and remove reliance on banks altogether.”

Bird also tied the timing of his forecast to what he described as a convergence of market structure and policy headlines. “It’s a massive week for XRP,” he wrote, citing CPI and PPI as volatility events and highlighting that the US market structure bill is scheduled to drop on Thursday. “The charts are aligning. The macro is aligned. If this pushes in our favour and we clear $2.70+, an all time high can come very fast for XRP people!”

At press time, XRP traded at $2.06.

XRP may be setting up for a final, cleaner long entry if the broader market delivers one more volatility-driven pullback, according to CryptoinsightUK’s Will Taylor, who says his preferred “risk to reward” zone sits materially below current support. The thesis hinges on whether Bitcoin prints a double-bottom-style retest and drags major alts into deeper liquidity pockets before the next leg higher.

In his Jan. 10 newsletter, Taylor framed early 2026 as a market caught between two plausible paths: a familiar pullback-and-recover structure that has defined prior Bitcoin dips, or a continuation higher that leaves would-be buyers watching price run away.

“The question mark for me is whether we do get a wick below this ascending trend line into that double bottom area and then push higher,” he wrote, adding that the setup is crowded. “On the other side of this, it does make you think that everyone is probably looking at the same structure and waiting for something like this to play out.”

Taylor said he had closed short-term trades during the week, not as a shift in his higher-timeframe view, but as a response to what he described as low-timeframe conditions and event risk. “Today we get the ruling on tariffs in the US. Is that going to provide some volatility?” he asked, pointing to a cluster of geopolitical headlines as potential catalysts that could either produce the pullback he’s watching for—or “deceive people… who are waiting for a pullback, and instead continue higher from here and leave those orders behind.”

Taylor’s shorter-term trade framework leans heavily on liquidity positioning, using Ethereum as a key tell for what Bitcoin might do next. He argued ETH “kind of favours the double bottom scenario” because “the amount of liquidity that has built up for ETH down to about $2,600” is heavier below than above on the hourly chart, an imbalance he views as a magnet if the market attempts to rally without first clearing that downside interest.

One Last Buying Opportunity For XRP?

That same logic carries into his XRP plan. Taylor said XRP has already “swept the highs of the range first,” forcing a decision point between holding a nearer support band—his “first blue box”—or fading into a deeper demand zone.

“Now the discussion becomes whether we move into the first blue box as a weaker area of support and hold there… or whether we come back down into the deeper support zone around $1.90 to $1.82 and hold there,” he wrote. “That deeper area is my preferred risk to reward zone for placing long positions, and that is where I will be looking to get back into an XRP long and add to my position if we see that move specifically.”

He added that the daily RSI on XRP was “close to crossing bearish,” presenting a technical backdrop that, in his view, supports the case for one more washout before trend continuation while stressing it does not alter his higher-timeframe bullish thesis.

Taylor then pivoted to a more stimulative medium-term narrative, citing talk of “putting 200 billion into additional mortgage backed security purchases to cut mortgage rates,” along with suggestions of potential stimulus checks and the inflation sensitivity of oil prices.

“Because of all of this, I think we’re going to see an epic rally. I don’t think people are really expecting the size or the scale of the move that could come,” Taylor wrote. “I believe we’re in the final shakeout period before the market really starts to march higher.” He said he remained “around 95% exposed to the market through spot positions,” framing the decision to close short-term trades as “a capital protection mechanism.”

His minimum XRP price target is $3.40 and extends to $4.40 based on liquidity in the medium term. Long-term, he says that the argument for the $8-$12 range is still valid, as reported last week.

Separate commentary in the newsletter from analyst @thecryptomann1 highlighted what “confirmation” would look like on Bitcoin: a reclaim of roughly $105,000, a push through, and a successful retest. He cited “a huge amount of volume around this region” and alignment with bull market support bands, arguing that regaining them would shift the read from “relief rally” to something more durable.

He also pointed to USDT dominance sitting on a multi-year trend line but showing weakness, including being “trapped below the 20 EMA” with RSI “below 50” and rolling over conditions that, if they resolve lower, could align with a risk-on breakout in majors.

At press time, XRP traded at $2.05.