Smart money doesn’t chase hype — it chooses structure, liquidity, and asymmetric risk. On Binance, that choice usually comes down to one critical decision: Spot trading or Futures trading?

Retail traders often frame this debate as simple — low risk vs high reward. Professionals know it’s far more nuanced. The real question isn’t which market is more profitable, but which market aligns with capital preservation, risk-adjusted returns, and scalable strategy execution.

In this in‑depth guide, we break down Spot vs Futures on Binance from the perspective of institutional traders, hedge funds, high‑net‑worth investors, and disciplined professionals — not gamblers.

By the end, you’ll know exactly where smart money actually trades, why, and how to position yourself accordingly.

Smart money uses both Spot and Futures on Binance — but for different objectives.

• Spot trading is preferred for long‑term accumulation, capital preservation, and directional conviction.
• Futures trading is used for hedging, short‑term alpha, volatility capture, and capital efficiency — not reckless leverage.

The edge comes from knowing when to use each market, not choosing only one.

Smart traders don’t rely on hype — they rely on frameworks. If you want more deep‑dive guides on Binance, crypto risk management, and professional‑grade trading strategies, follow this Medium profile now so you don’t miss the next article.

Understanding Binance Spot Trading

What Is Spot Trading on Binance?

Spot trading on Binance involves buying or selling cryptocurrencies at the current market price, with immediate ownership of the underlying asset. When you buy BTC on the spot market, you actually own BTC — no contracts, no expiry, no liquidation risk.

This is the most straightforward and transparent form of crypto trading, which is why it remains the foundation of most professional portfolios.

Key Features of Binance Spot Markets

• Real ownership of assets
• No leverage required
• No liquidation risk
• Simple fee structure
• Ideal for long‑term holding

Who Uses Spot Trading?

Spot markets attract:

• Long‑term investors
• Funds building core crypto exposure
• Family offices allocating to digital assets
• Traders with strong directional conviction
• Risk‑averse capital seeking asymmetric upside

For smart money, spot trading is about positioning, not excitement.

Advantages of Spot Trading (Why Smart Money Loves It)

1. No Liquidation Risk

One of the biggest advantages of spot trading is zero liquidation risk. Prices can move violently against you, but your position remains intact unless you choose to exit.

This is critical for professionals who prioritize survivability over short‑term performance.

2. Ideal for Long‑Term Conviction Trades

Smart money often identifies structural trends early — Layer 2 adoption, Bitcoin halvings, ETF inflows, DeFi primitives, or real‑world asset tokenization.

Spot markets allow them to:

• Accumulate gradually
• Ride multi‑year trends
• Ignore short‑term volatility

3. Simpler Risk Management

Risk is limited to the capital invested. There are no margin calls, funding rates, or forced liquidations to manage.

This simplicity is a feature, not a weakness.

4. Psychological Advantage

Spot traders experience far less emotional pressure than leveraged traders.

This leads to:

• Better decision‑making
• Less over‑trading
• More consistent execution

Smart money values emotional control as much as strategy.

Limitations of Spot Trading

Despite its strengths, spot trading isn’t perfect.

Capital Inefficiency

To generate meaningful returns, spot traders must deploy significant capital. A 20% move requires 100% capital exposure.

For institutions seeking capital efficiency, this can be a constraint.

Limited Short Opportunities

Spot markets make shorting difficult or impossible without borrowing assets, which adds complexity and counterparty risk.

This is where futures enter the conversation.

Pro Insight: Most traders lose money not because of bad markets — but because they choose the wrong tool.

Are you servicing a high-interest debt or want better savings?

Private credit is becoming the new income solution. Get $300 on first deposit with Insidefinacent. Here’s how it works.

Understanding Binance Futures Trading

What Are Binance Futures?

Binance Futures allows traders to speculate on the price of cryptocurrencies using derivative contracts rather than owning the underlying asset.

Key characteristics include:

• Ability to go long or short
• Use of leverage
• Funding rates
• Liquidation thresholds

Types of Binance Futures

• USDT‑Margined Futures (most popular)
• COIN‑Margined Futures

Smart money overwhelmingly prefers USDT‑margined perpetual futures due to liquidity and simplicity.

Why Smart Money Uses Futures (The Real Reasons)

Contrary to popular belief, professionals do not use futures primarily to gamble with high leverage.

1. Hedging Spot Exposure

One of the most common professional strategies is spot‑futures hedging.

Example:

• Long BTC in spot
• Short BTC perpetual futures during high volatility

This allows smart money to:

• Protect downside risk
• Lock in profits
• Reduce portfolio volatility

2. Capital Efficiency

Futures require far less capital than spot positions. This allows funds to:

• Deploy capital across multiple strategies
• Maintain liquidity
• Optimize returns on equity

3. Short‑Term Alpha Generation

Futures markets are ideal for:

• Range trading
• Breakout strategies
• Mean reversion
• Event‑driven trades

These strategies are difficult to execute efficiently on spot markets.

4. Market Neutral Strategies

Smart money often aims for delta‑neutral returns — profits regardless of market direction.

This is only possible with futures.

Risks of Futures Trading (Why Retail Traders Lose)

Liquidation Risk

Leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Poor risk management leads to forced liquidation — the #1 reason retail traders fail.

Funding Rate Costs

Holding futures positions during crowded trades can result in significant funding payments, silently eroding profits.

Emotional Overload

Leverage amplifies stress, leading to:

• Over‑trading
• Revenge trading
• Strategy abandonment

Smart money survives by avoiding these traps.

Spot vs Futures: Side‑by‑Side Comparison

Want the full smart‑money playbook? This article is part of a series focused on how professionals actually trade crypto — not what influencers sell.

Save this article so you can revisit these frameworks before your next trade.

Where Does Smart Money Actually Trade?

The honest answer: both — but strategically.

Smart Money Playbook

• Spot for core holdings and conviction trades
• Futures for risk management, tactical positioning, and volatility capture

They do not:

• Go all‑in on high leverage
• Trade emotionally
• Chase every move

They focus on risk‑adjusted returns, not screenshots.

Common Retail Mistakes to Avoid

1. Using high leverage without a plan
2. Trading futures without understanding funding rates
3. Ignoring spot accumulation
4. Over‑trading low‑quality setups
5. Confusing luck with skill

Avoiding these mistakes immediately puts you ahead of 90% of traders.

How to Choose Between Spot and Futures

Ask yourself:

• Is my goal long‑term wealth or short‑term income?
• Can I emotionally handle leverage?
• Do I understand liquidation mechanics?
• Am I trading with a strategy or chasing price?

If unsure, start with spot.

Advanced Strategy: Combining Spot and Futures

Professionals often run hybrid strategies, such as:

• Spot accumulation + futures hedging
• Spot long‑term + futures scalping
• Spot portfolio + futures arbitrage

This layered approach reduces risk while maximizing opportunity.

Final Verdict: Spot vs Futures on Binance

Spot trading builds wealth. Futures trading manages and enhances it.

Smart money doesn’t choose sides — it chooses structure, discipline, and survivability.

If your goal is long‑term success rather than short‑term excitement, the path is clear:

• Build conviction in spot markets
• Use futures selectively
• Manage risk relentlessly

That’s where smart money actually trades.

If this guide helped sharpen your understanding of Spot vs Futures on Binance, do clap and save. Your future self will thank you before your next trade.

This isn’t content for gamblers.

It’s for traders who want to stay in the game long enough to win.

Spot vs Futures on Binance: Where Should Smart Money Actually Trade? was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Mixed bag this week in crypto markets: BTC edged down slightly overall (from ~$91k to ~$95.6k ), while altcoins like SUI (+20–31% ) and XRP surged. Your portfolio (BTC, ETH, SUI, AERO, XRP) stayed positive on average, buoyed by SUI/XRP strength amid BTC stability around 95–97k. 📈

📊 Weekly Coin Movements

Portfolio benefited from altcoin rotation away from BTC dominance.

Coin Weekly Change/Volatility Key Swings Note BTC -0.58% to +5% 91k → 97k USD Stable, mild dip ETH -2% to +3% 3.200–3.500 USD Consolidation SUI +20–31% 1.5 → 1.8–2 USD Top winner 🚀 AERO Neutral No big moves Following alt trend XRP +21% → 2.1 USD BTC rotation play

🔍 BTC Technical Analysis (Weekly)

Moderate bullish momentum emerging.

• RSI: 58 (neutral, not overbought).
• MACD: Mild positive histogram (upside potential).
• ADX: 28 (moderate trend strength).
• Trend: Upward above 90k support, rising volatility via Bollinger Bands.

📈 ETH & Altcoin Tech Breakdown

• ETH: RSI 42–45 (neutral/bearish), MACD sell (-111), Directional -16; upside if resistance breaks.
• SUI: Symmetrical triangle, $2 support key for bulls.
• AERO: Neutral indicators.
• XRP: Bullish Bollinger Bands, channel pattern — boosted by SEC ending Ripple appeal.

🌍 Key Global Crypto News

• Altcoins rotating (SUI +20%, TAO +16%); total market cap +$250B.
• SEC drops Ripple appeal — XRP relief rally.
• Canary Capital files for SUI ETF.
• BTC ETF outflows $680M; options expiry adds 90k volatility today.

🪙 Gold as Precious Metal

Gold in bearish correction toward $4,235 support post-ATH, eyeing rally above $5,165. RSI trendline backs upside amid geopolitics fueling long-term bull.

💼 My Portfolio Updates

DeFi portfolio grinding higher with minimal new capital.

• Bitpanda: Up to $1,055 (+$37, no new deposits). Heavy in gold/ETFs. BITPANDA
• VFAT: $847 (+$9), $10 rewards reinvested in ETH pools.
• KRYSTAL: $1,285 (flat), +$6 fees; closed dead position — shifting $90 to Beefy, now $1,195.
• GAMMASWAP: +$5 on Base/Arbitrum ETH volatility plays.
• PENDLE: Minimal gain; stable stake-to-maturity (testing phase).
• MOONWELL: +$30+, better LTV.
• AAVE: +$15, LTV down to 40.08% (safe zone).
• NAVI: Negligible balance/health factor lift.
• TURBOS: Flat, minimal fee rewards.
• CETUS: Flat balance, +$1 rewards (reinvesting); one vault +$20, another -$2, +$2 rewards.
• BEEFY: Core holding — compounding strong.

📊 Portfolio Summary Snapshot

Metric Value Total Value ~$8,550–8,650 USD Concentration BTC-derivs + BTC/USDC CLM Weighted APY ~18–20% annual Yield Sources Uniswap v3 BTC CLM, PancakeSwap vaults, Aerodrome vLP, Morpho/Beefy

Yields stable from fees/compounding.

🔄 Week-over-Week Comparison

Category Last Week Now Change Total Value ~$8,700 $8,927 +$227 (+2.6%) Est. Daily Yield ~$3.7–4.0 ~$3.8 Stable Accrued Yield (Lifetime) ~$1,691 $1,738 +$47 net

Notes: Growth from yields + mild BTC/ETH price lifts. Lower volatility, better range-resilience. Risk down, IL pressure eased. Subjective score: 8.2/10 (up from 7.5).

🧾 Quick Conclusion

Portfolio up ~2.6% in a week, holding steady daily cashflow (~$3.8). APY isn’t sky-high, but structure is mature, less volatile, and sustainable — less action, more results.

🧠 Final Take:

• ❌ No strategy issues.
• ❌ Beefy autocompound flawless.
• ✅ Time + volume will scale it.
• 👉 HODL portfolio: Real fees, controlled risk, gradual growth — no bridging frenzy.
• Daily yield dips? Normal. Healthy structure wins in DeFi. Liquidity outlasts high-APY chasers.

Thoughts on SUI ETF buzz or XRP’s win? Comment below! 👇

⚠️ Disclaimer

🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑

Disclaimer:

This post is just my personal opinion and ideas. I am not promoting or recommending any cryptocurrency or investment. Please do your own research and be careful when investing. Any decisions you make are at your own risk.

🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑🛑

💼 Jan 2026 Portfolio Update: Stable 18–20% APY Amid BTC Consolidation was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

What if your crypto could work for you — 24/7 — without relying on banks, brokers, or savings accounts that barely beat inflation?

In a world where traditional interest rates struggle to keep up with rising living costs, decentralized finance (DeFi) has emerged as a powerful alternative for investors seeking passive income, portfolio diversification, and long-term wealth building.

One of the most beginner-friendly yet powerful gateways into this ecosystem is Crypto.com’s DeFi Wallet.

Unlike centralized platforms that control your funds, Crypto.com DeFi Wallet gives you full ownership of your assets, while still offering access to staking, yield farming, liquidity pools, and on-chain rewards — all from a single mobile interface.

In this step-by-step guide, you’ll learn exactly how to use Crypto.com’s DeFi Wallet to generate passive income, even if you’re new to DeFi. We’ll cover setup, security, earning strategies, risk management, and how to maximize yields responsibly.

Whether your goal is earning yield on idle crypto, reducing reliance on traditional debt-based systems, or building decentralized income streams, this guide is designed to help you do it safely and strategically.

What Is Crypto.com’s DeFi Wallet?

Crypto.com’s DeFi Wallet is a non-custodial cryptocurrency wallet that allows users to earn passive income through staking, DeFi lending, liquidity pools, and yield protocols while maintaining full control of their private keys.

Key Features of Crypto.com’s DeFi Wallet

• Self-custody (you own your keys, not Crypto.com)
• Supports Ethereum, Cronos, Polygon, BNB Chain, Cosmos, and more
• Access to staking, DeFi apps (dApps), and yield protocols
• Seamless connection to the Crypto.com App
• Built-in Web3 browser for DeFi access

Unlike centralized platforms, the wallet connects directly to decentralized finance applications (dApps), enabling on-chain rewards without intermediaries.

Building passive income with crypto is a skill — not a gamble.

Follow this publication to learn how professionals use DeFi, staking, and yield strategies to grow income, protect capital, and reduce reliance on traditional banks — without falling for hype or scams.

Can You Earn Passive Income With Crypto.com’s DeFi Wallet?

Yes, Crypto.com’s DeFi Wallet allows users to earn passive income by staking CRO, earning yield on stablecoins, providing liquidity to DeFi pools, and lending crypto assets through decentralized protocols — all while retaining self-custody.

Returns vary based on market conditions and protocol risk.

Why Use a DeFi Wallet for Passive Income?

Traditional savings accounts often offer negative real returns after inflation. DeFi flips this model by allowing users to earn yield directly from blockchain activity.

Benefits of DeFi Passive Income:

• Higher yield potential than banks
• No minimum balances
• Permissionless access
• Global, borderless income streams
• Transparency via smart contracts

Crypto.com’s DeFi Wallet acts as a bridge between beginners and advanced DeFi strategies, making it ideal for investors who want passive income without unnecessary complexity.

Step 1: Download and Set Up Crypto.com’s DeFi Wallet

1. Download the Wallet

• Available on iOS and Android
• Search for “Crypto.com DeFi Wallet”
• Ensure the developer is Crypto.com

2. Create a New Wallet

• Select “Create New Wallet”
• You’ll receive a 12-word recovery phrase
• Write it down offline (never store digitally)

Important Security Note:
Your recovery phrase is your money. Lose it, and your funds are gone forever.

3. Enable Security Settings

• Set a strong passcode
• Enable biometric authentication
• Turn on transaction confirmations

Step 2: Fund Your DeFi Wallet

To earn passive income, you need assets inside your wallet.

Funding Options:

• Transfer crypto from Crypto.com App
• Send crypto from another wallet
• Bridge assets from other chains

Popular assets for passive income:

• CRO
• ETH
• USDC
• ATOM
• MATIC

Each asset offers different yield opportunities, risk levels, and lock-up terms.

Step 3: Understand the Passive Income Options Inside the DeFi Wallet

Crypto.com’s DeFi Wallet supports multiple income-generating strategies, each with different risk-reward profiles.

What Are the Best Passive Income Strategies in Crypto.com’s DeFi Wallet?

The most popular passive income methods include:

• CRO staking
• Stablecoin yield farming
• Liquidity pool participation
• DeFi lending protocols

Each strategy offers different risk levels, yield potential, and liquidity conditions.

Strategy 1: CRO Staking (Beginner-Friendly)

How CRO Staking Works

By staking CRO, you help secure the Cronos network and earn staking rewards in return.

Why CRO Staking Is Popular:

• Predictable yields
• No active management
• On-chain transparency
• Ideal for long-term holders

Step-by-Step CRO Staking:

1. Open DeFi Wallet
2. Select Earn
3. Choose CRO Staking
4. Select a validator
5. Stake your CRO

Typical APYs fluctuate based on network conditions, but CRO staking remains one of the most stable DeFi income options.

Strategy 2: Stablecoin DeFi Yield (Lower Volatility)

If you prefer income without price swings, stablecoins are your friend.

Common Stablecoin Options:

• USDC
• USDT
• DAI

Where Stablecoin Yield Comes From:

• Lending protocols
• Liquidity pools
• Automated market makers (AMMs)

Benefits:

• Reduced volatility
• Predictable yield
• Ideal for capital preservation

This approach is especially attractive for investors focused on debt reduction, cash-flow stability, or income replacement strategies.

Is Stablecoin Yield Safer Than Crypto Staking?

Stablecoin yield strategies are generally less volatile than crypto staking because they are pegged to fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar. However, they still carry smart contract and protocol risk.

Stablecoins are often used for income stability and capital preservation.

Save this guide before you move on.

This step-by-step walkthrough is designed to be reused as you set up your DeFi wallet, choose staking options, and compare yield strategies. Saving now prevents costly mistakes later.

Strategy 3: Liquidity Pools (Higher Yield, Higher Risk)

Liquidity pools allow you to earn:

• Trading fees
• Incentives
• Yield rewards

Example:

Providing CRO/USDC liquidity on Cronos dApps.

Pros:

• Higher APYs
• Multiple income streams

Cons:

• Impermanent loss
• Smart contract risk

This strategy is best for experienced investors who understand DeFi mechanics and risk management.

What Is Impermanent Loss in DeFi?

Impermanent loss occurs when the price of tokens in a liquidity pool changes compared to holding them individually, potentially reducing overall returns despite earning trading fees.

It is a key risk factor when providing liquidity in DeFi protocols.

Strategy 4: DeFi Lending Protocols

Some DeFi platforms allow you to lend your crypto to borrowers and earn interest.

How Lending Generates Income:

• Borrowers pay interest
• Smart contracts automate repayments
• Collateral protects lenders

Ideal Assets:

• Stablecoins
• Blue-chip cryptocurrencies

This method closely resembles traditional interest-based finance, but without banks acting as middlemen.

Step 4: Using the Built-In Web3 Browser

Crypto.com’s DeFi Wallet includes a Web3 browser, giving access to vetted DeFi protocols.

How to Use It:

1. Open DeFi Wallet
2. Tap Browser
3. Select a DeFi app
4. Connect your wallet
5. Review terms before depositing

Always:

• Verify URLs
• Avoid unknown dApps
• Start with small amounts

Is Crypto.com’s DeFi Wallet Safe?

Crypto.com’s DeFi Wallet is considered secure because it is non-custodial, open-source, and requires users to manage their own private keys.

Security ultimately depends on user practices, such as protecting recovery phrases and avoiding unverified DeFi apps.

Step 5: Managing Risk Like a Professional

Passive income doesn’t mean risk-free income.

Smart Risk Management Tips:

• Diversify across strategies
• Avoid chasing unsustainable APYs
• Use stablecoins for balance
• Monitor protocol updates
• Never invest money you can’t afford to lock up

Think of DeFi as a portfolio tool, not a lottery ticket.

Step 6: Tracking and Reinvesting Your Earnings

Best Practices:

• Track yields monthly
• Reinvest rewards strategically
• Convert profits to stablecoins
• Periodically rebalance

Compound interest remains one of the most powerful wealth-building forces — especially in DeFi.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

• Ignoring smart contract risk
• Falling for fake APY promises
• Storing seed phrases digitally
• Over-allocating to one protocol
• Forgetting about gas fees

Avoiding these mistakes alone can dramatically improve long-term returns.

Are you servicing a high-interest debt or have low savings?

Private credit is becoming the new income solution. Get $300 on first deposit with Insidefinacent. See how it works.

Is Crypto.com DeFi Wallet Safe?

Security depends largely on user behavior.

Safety Strengths:

• Non-custodial
• Transparent smart contracts
• Established ecosystem
• Regular updates

Your biggest risk isn’t the wallet — it’s poor operational security.

Who Should Use Crypto.com’s DeFi Wallet?

This wallet is ideal for:

• Passive income seekers
• Crypto beginners entering DeFi
• Long-term CRO holders
• Investors diversifying away from banks
• Individuals rebuilding finances or reducing debt through alternative income

Final Thoughts: Is Crypto.com DeFi Wallet Worth It for Passive Income?

If you’re serious about earning passive income with crypto, Crypto.com’s DeFi Wallet offers a balanced entry point into decentralized finance.

It combines:

• Self-custody
• Real yield opportunities
• Beginner-friendly design
• Access to advanced DeFi strategies

In a financial system increasingly defined by inflation, debt, and centralized control, learning how to generate decentralized income is no longer optional — it’s strategic.

Step-by-Step: How to Use Crypto.com’s DeFi Wallet for Passive Income was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Most traders don’t lose money on Binance Futures because they’re wrong about the market — they lose because they don’t understand risk.

Every liquidation you see on crypto Twitter, every $10M “rekt” screenshot, every blown account story follows the same pattern: too much leverage, poor position sizing, and zero risk management. Meanwhile, professional traders quietly compound capital on Binance Futures by doing the exact opposite.

This guide breaks down how professionals actually use Binance Futures, how they avoid liquidation, and how you can apply the same institutional risk frameworks — even with a small account.

Whether you’re trading for income, portfolio hedging, or capital growth, this article will show you how Binance Futures fits into a smart wealth strategy, not a gambling habit.

What Is Binance Futures?

Binance Futures is a derivatives trading platform that allows traders to speculate on the price of cryptocurrencies without owning the underlying asset.

Instead of buying Bitcoin outright, you trade contracts that track price movements.

Key Binance Futures Features

• Perpetual Contracts (no expiration date)
• Leverage up to 125x (rarely used by professionals)
• USDT-M and COIN-M contracts
• Cross and Isolated Margin
• Advanced order types
• Deep liquidity and tight spreads

Professionals use Binance Futures not to gamble, but to:

• Hedge spot portfolios
• Generate income in sideways markets
• Reduce downside risk
• Trade volatility efficiently

How Do Professionals Avoid Liquidation on Binance Futures?

Professionals avoid liquidation on Binance Futures by:

1. Using low leverage (1x–3x)
2. Trading with isolated margin
3. Limiting risk to 1–2% per trade
4. Always placing a stop-loss
5. Maintaining sufficient margin buffers

These principles dramatically reduce liquidation risk even during high market volatility.

Liquidation isn’t bad luck — it’s mathematical certainty when leverage and risk aren’t controlled.

Professionals build strategies where liquidation is nearly impossible, even during extreme volatility.

Leverage: Why Professionals Use Less, Not More

Retail traders are attracted to Binance Futures because of high leverage. Professionals view leverage as a risk tool, not a profit shortcut.

How Professionals Think About Leverage

Low leverage increases survivability, allowing traders to stay in the market during volatility.

A 2x leveraged position can survive a 50% drawdown. A 10x position cannot survive a 10% move.

What Is the Safest Leverage to Use on Binance Futures?

The safest leverage on Binance Futures is between 1x and 3x.

Most professional traders and institutions rarely exceed 3x leverage because:

• It allows positions to survive normal market swings
• Liquidation thresholds remain far from price
• Risk remains controllable during volatility

Cross Margin vs Isolated Margin: Which Is Better?

Isolated margin is safer than cross margin for most traders.

Isolated Margin (Professional Default)

• Risk limited to one position
• Liquidation does not affect entire account
• Easier to calculate risk
• Ideal for directional trades

Cross Margin (Advanced & Dangerous)

• Entire account backs open positions
• One bad trade can wipe everything
• Used mainly for hedging strategies

Professionals default to isolated margin to prevent one trade from wiping out the entire account.

Position Sizing: The #1 Professional Skill

Professionals don’t ask:

“How much can I make?”

They ask:

“How much can I afford to lose?”

How Do Professionals Calculate Position Size?

Professionals calculate position size using this formula:

Position Size = (Account Size × Risk %) ÷ Stop-Loss Distance

Example:

• Account size: $10,000
• Risk per trade: 1% ($100)
• Stop loss: 5%

Position size = $2,000

Professional Risk Rule

• Risk 0.5%–2% of total capital per trade
• Never risk more than 5% across all positions

This single rule alone eliminates most liquidations.

What Is a Stop-Loss in Binance Futures?

A stop-loss in Binance Futures is an order that automatically closes a position when price reaches a predefined level to limit losses.

A stop loss is not optional — it’s the foundation of futures trading.

Professional Stop-Loss Principles

• Always placed before entry
• Based on structure, not emotion
• Never moved further away
• Only adjusted to reduce risk

Common stop-loss tools:

• Support/resistance
• VWAP
• Previous highs/lows
• ATR-based stops

Professionals never rely on liquidation price as a stop.

How Do Funding Rates Work on Binance Futures?

Funding rates are periodic payments exchanged between long and short traders to keep futures prices aligned with spot prices.

• Positive funding → longs pay shorts
• Negative funding → shorts pay longs

Professionals monitor funding rates to:

• Avoid crowded trades
• Earn funding yield
• Identify market sentiment extremes
• Hedge spot holdings with futures

In some markets, professionals earn passive income simply by holding positions that collect funding.

Can Binance Futures Be Used for Hedging?

Yes, Binance Futures is commonly used for portfolio hedging.

Hedge Strategy Example

• Hold $50,000 BTC spot
• Short $25,000 BTC perpetuals
• Reduce downside risk during uncertainty
• Maintain long-term exposure

This allows investors to:

• Avoid panic selling
• Protect capital
• Manage taxes more efficiently
• Reduce emotional decisions

Institutions hedge constantly. Retail traders rarely do.

Liquidation Price: Why Pros Ignore It

Retail traders obsess over liquidation price. Professionals don’t.

Why?

• They never let price get close
• Stops trigger first
• Risk is predefined
• Margin buffers are large

If you’re watching liquidation price, your leverage is already too high.

Volatility Management: Trading When Others Panic

Professionals wait for:

• Liquidity sweeps
• Forced liquidations
• Extreme fear or greed
• Overcrowded positions

They enter after retail traders are wiped out — not before.

Binance Futures provides real-time data that professionals use to:

• Identify leverage clusters
• Spot liquidation zones
• Trade against emotional traders

Advanced Order Types Professionals Use

Binance Futures offers tools most retail traders ignore.

Professional Order Stack

• Limit orders (not market)
• Post-only orders
• Stop-limit entries
• Reduce-only exits
• Partial take-profits

This improves:

• Entry precision
• Fee efficiency
• Risk control
• Emotional discipline

Psychology: The Hidden Edge in Futures Trading

Professional traders don’t trade constantly.

They:

• Wait for high-probability setups
• Avoid revenge trading
• Accept losses as operating costs
• Focus on consistency, not excitement

“Your goal isn’t to win every trade — it’s to survive long enough to let probabilities work.”

Binance Futures vs Spot Trading

Professionals use both, but for different purposes.

Common Myths About Binance Futures

“Futures trading is gambling”

Truth: Poor risk management is gambling.

“High leverage means higher profits”

Truth: High leverage increases liquidation risk.

“Only whales win”

Truth: Small accounts with discipline outperform reckless whales.

How Professionals Build Long-Term Futures Income

Professional futures traders think in months and years, not days.

Long-Term Framework

• Capital preservation first
• Small, repeatable edges
• Risk-adjusted returns
• Continuous learning
• Emotional neutrality

This is how futures become a wealth-building tool, not a debt trap.

Risk Management Checklist (Professional Standard)

Before every trade:

• Is leverage under 3x?
• Is risk under 2%?
• Is stop loss placed?
• Is position isolated?
• Is funding considered?
• Is emotion controlled?

If any answer is “no,” professionals don’t trade.

Conclusion: Binance Futures Is a Tool — Not a Trap

Binance Futures isn’t dangerous. Ignoring risk is.

Professionals don’t get liquidated because they:

• Respect leverage
• Control position size
• Use stops religiously
• Think probabilistically
• Treat trading as a business

If you approach Binance Futures with discipline, education, and patience, it can become a powerful component of your investment strategy, helping you manage risk, generate income, and protect long-term wealth.

Want More Professional Crypto Risk Guides?

Follow our Medium profile for:

• Futures risk frameworks
• DeFi income strategies
• Portfolio protection tactics
• Scam prevention and capital preservation insights

Smart money survives first — profits come second.

Binance Futures Explained: How Pros Trade Safely Without Getting Liquidated was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

How ETFs, policy, and global liquidity reshaped Bitcoin’s market structure after the 2024 halving

I have spent years working across crypto content, research, and market analysis, watching narratives rise, harden into doctrine, and eventually fail under real market pressure.

Few ideas shaped Bitcoin investor behavior more than the four-year cycle. Halvings reduced supply. Prices surged. Crashes followed. The rhythm felt inevitable.

After the 2024 halving, that model stopped explaining what the market was doing.

Price broke prior highs early. Volatility compressed instead of expanding. Institutional capital, policy decisions, and global liquidity began exerting more influence than issuance mechanics alone.

This piece breaks down what changed, why the old cycle lost its timing power, and what actually drives Bitcoin’s market behavior heading into 2026.

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has shaped how investors interpret crypto market behavior for more than a decade. Rooted in halving events that reduce mining rewards every 210,000 blocks, the cycle historically aligned with large price expansions followed by deep corrections. This framework guided market expectations through multiple bull and bear phases, creating what many considered a predictable rhythm in an otherwise chaotic asset class.

Following the April 19, 2024 halving at block 840,000, however, the familiar script began to diverge. Price action unfolded earlier than expected, volatility compressed instead of expanding, and traditional post-halving signals failed to materialize. For the first time in Bitcoin’s history, a post-halving year ended with negative returns — Bitcoin closed 2025 down more than 30% from its October all-time high of $126,080, marking an unprecedented deviation from historical patterns.

As institutional participation accelerated and policy influence intensified, prominent industry figures including ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, and Bitwise executives Matt Hougan and Hunter Horsley declared the four-year cycle dead throughout 2025. Investors began questioning whether the four-year cycle still functions as a reliable market model or whether Bitcoin has transitioned into a different structural regime entirely.

This question matters because the market environment has fundamentally changed. Institutional investors now hold Bitcoin through regulated vehicles that didn’t exist in previous cycles. Policy decisions exert measurable influence on demand through mechanisms like the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Global liquidity conditions increasingly dictate capital flows more than supply schedules. Against this backdrop, reassessing the relevance of the four-year cycle is not academic — it is necessary for anyone seriously analyzing Bitcoin markets.

The Foundation: How Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Works

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle originates from a fixed monetary rule embedded in its protocol. Every 210,000 blocks, approximately once every four years, the block subsidy paid to miners is reduced by 50 percent. This halving mechanism slows the rate of new Bitcoin issuance and introduces programmed scarcity — a design feature Satoshi Nakamoto built into Bitcoin’s code from inception.

At launch in 2009, miners earned 50 BTC per block. The first halving on November 28, 2012 reduced rewards to 25 BTC. Subsequent halvings on July 9, 2016 and May 11, 2020 lowered rewards to 12.5 BTC and 6.25 BTC respectively. The most recent halving on April 19–20, 2024 reduced issuance to 3.125 BTC per block, cutting new daily supply from approximately 900 BTC to 450 BTC.

Historically, these supply reductions coincided with a recurring price pattern that became deeply embedded in investor psychology:

Pre-Halving Accumulation: Bitcoin tended to rally in anticipation of the halving event as market participants positioned for reduced supply. This anticipatory phase typically began 12–18 months before the halving date.

Post-Halving Acceleration: Within 12 to 18 months following halvings, Bitcoin experienced parabolic price acceleration. Historical data shows Bitcoin appreciated between 53.3% to 122.5% in the six months following previous halvings, with peak gains occurring roughly 12–18 months post-event.

Cycle Peak and Correction: After reaching new all-time highs, Bitcoin experienced sharp drawdowns ranging from 65% to 80% from peak levels. These corrections marked transitions from bull to bear markets.

Extended Bear Markets: Prolonged consolidation periods followed before the next cycle began, typically lasting 12–24 months until accumulation for the next halving started.

The 2013 cycle saw Bitcoin rise from under $13 to over $1,100 before retracing to near $200 — an 82% drawdown. In 2017, price advanced from roughly $650 to nearly $20,000, followed by an 84% decline to $3,200. The 2020 to 2021 cycle lifted Bitcoin from approximately $8,500 to $69,000 before falling 77% to around $15,500 by late 2022.

This repetition reinforced investor behavior. As awareness of the pattern spread, market participants positioned ahead of anticipated milestones, strengthening the cycle through collective expectation. That reflexivity proved powerful in markets dominated by retail capital and limited derivatives infrastructure — but it established dependencies that would later prove fragile.

The 2024 Halving: When the Script Changed

The April 2024 halving represented a structural inflection point that shattered historical precedent. For the first time, Bitcoin surpassed its prior all-time high before the halving occurred. Price reached approximately $73,000 in March 2024, exceeding the November 2021 peak of $69,000 while block rewards were still 6.25 BTC.

This early breakout signaled a fundamental shift in demand dynamics. The rally was not driven by retail speculation or leverage expansion typical of previous cycles. It was driven by institutional inflows following the January 11, 2024 approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States — a regulatory milestone that fundamentally transformed crypto accessibility.

The impact of ETF approval on market structure cannot be overstated. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF accumulated over $62 billion in net inflows since launch, with total U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows reaching approximately $56.9 billion by late 2025 according to Farside Investors data. This represented the fastest-growing ETF category in history, surpassing even gold ETF adoption rates.

Spot ETF demand altered the post-halving trajectory as well. Historically, Bitcoin appreciated between roughly 50% and 120% in the six months following prior halvings. In contrast, the six months following April 2024 delivered approximately 41% gains — from $63,762 on halving day to around $90,446 by mid-November. Price appreciation persisted, but without the parabolic acceleration typical of earlier cycles.

Instead of entering a speculative blow-off phase characterized by extreme volatility and euphoric sentiment, Bitcoin transitioned into a period of controlled, range-bound growth. Monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings — a momentum indicator that measures overbought and oversold conditions — remained largely between 60 and 70 rather than reaching the extreme levels above 90 observed near past cycle peaks. This moderation suggested measured accumulation rather than speculative mania.

Most notably, Bitcoin entered 2025 trading below its opening price for the year, eventually closing 2025 down more than 30% from its October peak. This marked the first instance in which a post-halving year failed to close decisively higher — a deviation that fundamentally challenged the assumption that halvings alone dictate short-term price outcomes.

Vivek Sen, founder of Bitcoin public relations firm Bitgrow Lab, declared the four-year cycle “officially dead” in late 2025, citing the influx of institutional investors and macroeconomic environment as key factors dampening its relevance. He emphasized that Bitcoin now reacts more to liquidity conditions, interest rates, regulation, and geopolitical risks than to halving schedules — a sentiment echoed across industry analysis.

Institutional Capital: The Structural Shift Reshaping Markets

Institutional participation fundamentally reshaped Bitcoin’s market structure in ways that extend far beyond simple demand dynamics. Unlike retail traders who chase momentum and panic sell during corrections, institutions allocate capital based on portfolio construction frameworks, risk management mandates, and long-term macro views. Their behavior tends to dampen volatility and extend trend duration rather than amplify speculative extremes.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs removed operational and regulatory barriers that previously constrained institutional access. These products offered regulated custody through firms like Coinbase Prime, which held $245 billion in institutional assets under custody as of June 30, 2025, standardized reporting that satisfied compliance requirements, and seamless integration into existing investment systems that institutional investors already used.

ETF adoption exceeded even bullish early expectations. BlackRock’s IBIT alone surpassed 800,000 BTC ($97 billion) in assets under management by October 2025 — less than two years after launching. This represented 3.8% of Bitcoin’s total 21 million supply, positioning BlackRock’s holdings ahead of MicroStrategy, the leading Bitcoin treasury company which held 640,031 BTC (3.1% of supply).

Quarterly 13-F filings revealed the composition of this institutional demand. By Q4 2024, institutional investors represented 26.3% of total Bitcoin ETF assets under management, up from 21.1% in Q3. Hedge funds alone accounted for 41% of all institutional Bitcoin ETF holdings, surpassing investment advisors for the first time and signaling growing sophistication in crypto allocation strategies.

This shift influenced market correlations in profound ways. Bitcoin’s return profile increasingly aligned with broader risk assets following ETF approval. Research examining the relationship between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 found that daily returns correlation measured 0.2 from January 2014 to April 2025, but when parsed into smaller three-year periods, correlations remained near zero in initial periods before jumping into positive territory in 2020 and sustaining higher levels over the past five years.

More granular analysis revealed even stronger relationships. An academic study examining the post-ETF period found correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 shifted to a sharp upward trend immediately following January 2024, with rolling correlations jumping to approximately 0.5. The study concluded that “the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF acted as a catalyst, transforming Bitcoin from an isolated asset into one that moves in tandem with traditional equities.”

During periods of market stress, these correlations intensified further. CME Group analysis identified that higher positive correlations are frequently evident during stressed market environments, such as the February-March 2020 COVID-19 onset, the 2022 period when the Ukraine war started and the Federal Reserve increased interest rates, and the January to early April 2025 volatility spike. This asymmetrical correlation relationship meant positive correlation frequently increased when uncertainty rose, suggesting risk-off investor sentiment for Bitcoin resembled equity market behavior.

The implication was structural integration. Bitcoin began behaving less like an isolated alternative asset and more like a macro-sensitive instrument within the global financial system. This integration reduced tail-risk volatility — Fidelity Digital Assets research found Bitcoin’s realized volatility has declined substantially, with the asset now less volatile than 33 S&P 500 stocks — while increasing exposure to broader liquidity conditions that drive all risk assets.

Policy and Regulation as Primary Market Variables

Policy developments emerged as material price drivers in 2025 and early 2026, in many cases eclipsing traditional on-chain signals and halving-based expectations. Regulatory clarity, rather than halving schedules, increasingly shaped institutional participation and capital deployment decisions.

Executive actions by the U.S. administration marked a dramatic shift. On January 23, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order titled “Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology” that established clear policy priorities including protection of self-custody rights, promotion of blockchain development, and prohibition of central bank digital currencies. The order also created the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets within the National Economic Council, tasked with developing comprehensive federal regulatory frameworks.

The administration’s most significant move came on March 6, 2025, when Trump issued an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and United States Digital Asset Stockpile. The order directed federal agencies to maintain custody of all Bitcoin obtained through criminal forfeitures or civil proceedings and prohibited sales from the reserve, positioning it as a permanent store of value. The U.S. government’s existing holdings exceeded 207,000 BTC, worth approximately $17 billion as of March 15, 2025, forming the foundation of this reserve.

White House AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks called the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve “like a digital Fort Knox” for cryptocurrency, emphasizing that it would be funded exclusively with seized assets, ensuring no taxpayer burden. The Treasury and Commerce Secretaries were authorized to develop budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional Bitcoin, though the mechanics of such acquisition remained undefined.

Congressional action provided additional clarity. The GENIUS Act, passed in mid-2025, created the first comprehensive federal framework for dollar-backed stablecoins, imposing 100% reserve backing requirements and establishing audit standards. While focused on stablecoins, the law’s passage signaled growing political consensus around crypto regulation and demonstrated that legislative frameworks could move from proposal to law.

Market structure legislation progressed through Congress as well. White House crypto adviser David Sacks stated in early 2026 that lawmakers were “closer than ever” to passing landmark crypto market structure legislation. The proposed framework would end the jurisdictional dispute between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, providing clear rules for which agency regulates which digital assets — a clarity that institutional investors had demanded for years.

State governments joined the federal push. Texas established the first state-managed fund to hold Bitcoin in June 2025, allocating funds to BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF with plans for direct BTC investment. Arizona and New Hampshire passed similar legislation, positioning themselves to announce cryptocurrency purchases as part of treasury strategy in 2026.

These policy developments influenced institutional thinking more than halving schedules. Regulatory clarity removed uncertainty that previously deterred conservative investors. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve provided sovereign validation, positioning Bitcoin as a strategic asset alongside gold and petroleum reserves in the federal stockpile. Political support created confidence that crypto-friendly policies would persist regardless of short-term market conditions.

However, policy impact remained conditional on broader market dynamics. Analysts noted that if favorable legislation emerged without coinciding liquidity expansion, its market impact would prove limited. Conversely, policy clarity combined with accommodative monetary conditions could trigger sustained institutional demand capable of overwhelming traditional cycle dynamics — a scenario that materialized only partially through 2025.

Global Liquidity: The Dominant Driver in Modern Bitcoin Markets

Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global liquidity conditions increased materially as institutional participation grew, fundamentally altering the asset’s price discovery mechanism. Analysis of historical price movements reveals relationships that eclipse the predictive power of halving schedules.

Bitcoin moves in the direction of global M2 money supply 83% of the time in any 12-month period — a correlation higher than virtually any other major asset class. This strong relationship makes Bitcoin an effective barometer for liquidity conditions in the global financial system, but it also means the asset responds more to central bank balance sheets than to its own supply schedule.

Global M2 expanded dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic as central banks injected unprecedented liquidity. This monetary expansion coincided precisely with Bitcoin’s explosive bull run from March 2020 (when Bitcoin traded around $5,000) to November 2021 (when it peaked at $69,000) — a 1,280% increase. When central banks began tightening policy in 2022, raising interest rates aggressively and reducing balance sheets through quantitative tightening, Bitcoin declined 77% alongside other risk assets. The correlation was unmistakable: loose liquidity drove prices up, tight liquidity pushed prices down.

The relationship temporarily broke down in early 2024. Bitcoin rallied to new highs above $73,000 in March while M2 growth remained subdued and even negative in year-over-year terms. This decoupling reflected institutional demand through newly approved ETFs rather than broad liquidity expansion — a supply shock from ETF demand overwhelming modest liquidity headwinds. By late 2025, however, the liquidity correlation reasserted itself. Bitcoin’s price fell 30% from its $126,080 peak while global M2 growth remained stagnant, suggesting the market was resetting expectations and repricing assets based on actual liquidity availability rather than anticipated future easing.

Several factors explain Bitcoin’s exceptional sensitivity to liquidity conditions. Unlike stocks, which generate earnings and dividends that provide fundamental support independent of liquidity, Bitcoin lacks cash flows. Unlike bonds, which offer contractual repayment and coupon payments, Bitcoin provides no yield. Unlike gold, which serves as a traditional safe haven with thousands of years of precedent, Bitcoin remains primarily classified as a risk asset despite “digital gold” narratives. Without structural support from fundamentals, safe-haven demand, or yield, Bitcoin responds directly to the availability of capital in financial markets.

The Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory became crucial for Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook. After raising the federal funds rate from near zero in early 2022 to a peak of 5.25–5.50% by July 2023, the Fed began cutting rates with a 50-basis-point reduction in September 2024 followed by additional cuts. Market pricing in early 2026 indicated probability of unchanged rates through early quarters but better than two-thirds chance of at least two additional cuts by year-end. This easing cycle stood in stark contrast to the tightening periods of 2018 and 2022, when rising rates crushed Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Beyond interest rates, the Fed’s balance sheet matters tremendously. The central bank effectively initiated quantitative easing in late 2025, announcing plans to purchase Treasury Bills to stabilize short-term funding markets. While distinct from formal QE programs launched during crises, these operations nonetheless increased system liquidity at the margin. Historical precedent is striking: the last time significant QE began was March 2020 following COVID-19’s onset, and over the subsequent 12 months, Bitcoin surged more than 1,000%. While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, the pattern highlighted Bitcoin’s sensitivity to central bank liquidity provision.

Global liquidity extends beyond U.S. monetary policy. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes argued that Bitcoin’s four-year cycles tied directly to both U.S. Dollar and Chinese Yuan dynamics. He explained that the 2013 peak resulted from post-2008 financial crisis money printing, the 2017 peak stemmed from yuan devaluation against the dollar creating capital flight, and the 2021 peak followed post-COVID monetary expansion across major economies. This perspective emphasized that Bitcoin responds to global, not just domestic, liquidity conditions — and that understanding cross-border capital flows becomes essential for price forecasting.

The dollar’s trajectory provides another key indicator. The U.S. dollar index fell approximately 7–9% in 2025 against major currency baskets, with the euro gaining 13% and the pound rising 7–8%. Historically, sustained dollar weakness aligns with stronger Bitcoin performance as a softer dollar supports global liquidity conditions, eases financial conditions in emerging markets, and strengthens the narrative for scarce, non-sovereign assets that aren’t subject to debasement through monetary expansion.

Ryan Yoon, senior analyst at Seoul-based Tiger Research, told Decrypt: “Bitcoin reacts preemptively when markets expect quasi-QE. Since Bitcoin is highly sensitive to liquidity, it is expected to lead the market.” This forward-looking behavior explains why Bitcoin often moves before official policy announcements — market participants anticipate liquidity conditions and position accordingly, creating price movements that precede fundamental catalysts.

Market Structure: From Speculation to Systemic Integration

Bitcoin’s integration into traditional financial infrastructure represents perhaps the most profound structural shift in the asset’s history. Bitcoin no longer operates in isolation but connects deeply to existing financial markets through multiple channels that transmit information, liquidity, and risk bidirectionally.

Exchange-traded funds created the primary integration channel. With over $113.8 billion in assets under management across the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF complex and cumulative net inflows of nearly $56.9 billion since January 2024, Bitcoin ETFs represent substantial daily trading volume. These flows influence spot market prices through arbitrage mechanisms operated by authorized participants. When ETF demand exceeds supply, APs purchase Bitcoin on spot markets to create new ETF shares, transmitting institutional buying pressure directly to underlying assets. When redemptions occur, the reverse happens. This arbitrage ensures ETF prices track spot markets while creating a direct transmission mechanism from traditional finance to crypto markets.

Derivatives markets expanded alongside spot products, adding complexity and interconnectedness. Bitcoin futures contracts traded on CME since December 2017 provide institutional investors with regulated derivative exposure. Options markets grew substantially, with record quarterly expirations reaching $23.7 billion in December 2025. These derivatives enable sophisticated trading strategies including hedging, leveraged exposure, and arbitrage, but they also introduce complexity whereby positioning across futures curves and options gamma dynamics influence spot prices in ways divorced from fundamental supply-demand dynamics.

Corporate adoption extended beyond direct Bitcoin purchases. Companies explored Bitcoin-backed credit facilities, with the first corporate loans collateralized by BTC emerging in major economies. Tokenized treasury strategies that use Bitcoin as part of broader digital collateral stacks showed how deeply the asset was being woven into financial infrastructure. This integration tends to compress volatility over time as multiple stabilizing mechanisms emerge, but it also means liquidity shocks can transmit more directly between Bitcoin and other risk markets, eliminating the isolation that previously characterized crypto during traditional market stress.

The custody industry matured significantly. Professional custodians like Coinbase, BitGo, and Fidelity Digital Assets now hold billions in client Bitcoin, providing institutional-grade security, insurance coverage, and regulatory compliance that remove operational barriers previously deterring institutional participation. However, this concentration creates new risks. Approximately 48% of all Bitcoin held by major custodians resides in U.S. ETFs, creating significant concentration reminiscent of the Mt. Gox era when a single exchange held substantial supply — though modern custody arrangements include far superior security and insurance frameworks.

Bitcoin’s realized volatility dropped substantially compared to earlier cycles. Fidelity Digital Assets research found Bitcoin is currently less volatile than 33 S&P 500 stocks, and as recently as late 2023, 92 S&P 500 stocks exhibited higher volatility than Bitcoin. The asset’s annualized volatility fell as much as 75% from peak historical levels by mid-2025. This stabilization resulted from deeper liquidity pools, the “strong hands” effect where large institutional investors prove less prone to panic selling during downturns, and the rise of regulated investment products bringing capital managed under traditional risk frameworks that mandate position limits and drawdown controls.

Fidelity’s hash rate data showed Bitcoin’s hash rate rose above one zettahash per second in April 2024, reflecting continued investment in mining infrastructure. The 30-day mean hash rate and difficulty increased roughly 40% within the year following the halving, potentially indicating sustained long-term confidence in the network despite hash price — the expected return for each hash a miner generates — falling approximately 60% since April 2024 as competition distributed reduced rewards across more participants.

Trading infrastructure evolved as well. Institutional-grade trading platforms now offer algorithmic execution, prime brokerage services connecting multiple liquidity venues, and sophisticated order types including time-weighted average price (TWAP) and volume-weighted average price (VWAP) algorithms. Market makers provide continuous two-sided liquidity, tightening bid-ask spreads from 50–100 basis points in early years to 1–5 basis points on major exchanges, dramatically reducing slippage for large orders. These improvements make Bitcoin more accessible to traditional investors accustomed to deep, liquid markets with tight execution.

The increasing sophistication means Bitcoin behaves more like a traditional macro asset than a niche speculative instrument. Price movements reflect positioning across futures curves, options gamma dynamics creating convexity effects, and cross-asset correlations driving systematic flows. This complexity makes simple halving-based predictions less reliable as multiple variables influence outcomes simultaneously, requiring analysis frameworks that incorporate derivatives positioning, institutional flows, macro conditions, and technical levels rather than relying solely on supply schedule changes.

The Case for Cycle Evolution Rather Than Death

Not everyone accepts that the four-year cycle has ended. Several analysts argue the pattern persists but expresses differently under current market conditions. They point to historical precedent showing cycles evolve as markets mature, fundamental supply dynamics that remain unchanged despite shifting demand composition, and on-chain metrics that continue exhibiting familiar patterns even as price behavior diverges from historical norms.

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, stated during a December edition of The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast that the cycle remains intact but no longer responds purely to programmed supply cuts. The evolving structure reflects Bitcoin’s maturation into a macro asset class with broader influences on price action, but the underlying rhythm endures. Thielen’s perspective emphasizes that cycles don’t disappear — they transform as market structure changes.

Supply constraints still matter fundamentally. Bitcoin’s issuance continues declining with each halving, creating long-term scarcity even as miners develop sophisticated financing options through hashrate derivatives and forward sales, and institutional holders lock up supply through custody arrangements and long-term allocation mandates. Over the next six years through 2030, miners will produce roughly 700,000 new Bitcoin based on the current issuance schedule. At prices around $100,000, that represents $70 billion in new supply. Meanwhile, institutional cryptocurrency demand could reach $3 trillion in the same period according to industry projections. This 40-to-one supply-demand imbalance suggests significant structural upward pressure on price regardless of short-term cycle deviations or tactical positioning.

Historical patterns provide important context. While the current cycle deviated from previous timelines in terms of when price peaked relative to the halving date, Bitcoin demonstrated similar multiplicative behavior when examined from cycle lows. From cycle lows, Bitcoin increased 5.72 times by late 2024, comparable to 5.18 times at the same point in the 2015–2018 cycle and 5.93 times in the 2018–2022 cycle. If patterns continue following previous cycle templates, price could increase approximately 15 times from cycle lows, implying potential appreciation toward $200,000–250,000 ranges during the next 12–18 months.

The timing argument remains viable when viewed through institutional lenses. Market participants stood roughly 18 months past the April 2024 halving by late 2025, matching the typical length of past bull runs measured from halving to peak. Yet no clear reversal into deep bear market had materialized. Instead of interpreting this as cycle death, some analysts view it as evidence the cycle extends longer under institutional influence. Where retail traders created parabolic spikes followed by panic-driven crashes compressing timeframes, institutional capital produces steadier, more sustainable appreciation extending cycle duration while reducing amplitude of both rallies and corrections.

On-chain metrics support continuation arguments. Supply held by long-term holders — addresses that haven’t moved Bitcoin in over a year — shows distribution patterns around psychological price levels like $100,000, but overall accumulation trends remain intact. The percentage of supply classified as long-term holdings continues rising, indicating conviction among holders. Miner capitulation events that typically mark cycle bottoms and force distribution of mining inventory haven’t occurred, suggesting the market hasn’t completed its distribution phase before entering the next accumulation period.

Network fundamentals stay strong independent of price action. Hash rate reaching all-time highs above one zettahash per second — the measure of computational power securing the network — continues even as hash price declined 60% post-halving. Transaction volumes remain robust despite price consolidation, with average daily transactions exceeding 400,000 consistently. These metrics indicate underlying network health and growing usage independent of price cycles, providing foundation for future appreciation when liquidity and sentiment conditions align favorably.

Bitcoin’s market dominance increased from 64% to 72% following the fourth halving, while Ethereum and Solana’s dominance fell 56% and 25% respectively. This relative strength suggests capital rotation toward Bitcoin as a macro asset during uncertain periods, potentially indicating investors view Bitcoin differently than alternative cryptocurrencies — treating it more like digital gold than a speculative technology bet.

The four-year cycle may not have died but rather evolved significantly. Institutional participation extends bullish trends beyond historical timeframes and reduces bearish extremes by providing stabilizing demand during corrections, creating longer cycles with lower volatility and less pronounced peaks and troughs. This represents maturation, not destruction, of the underlying supply-driven pattern that halvings create — a distinction with substantial implications for forecasting and portfolio management strategies.

The 2026 Outlook: What Current Data Suggests

Price predictions for Bitcoin in 2026 vary dramatically, reflecting genuine uncertainty about which forces will dominate market direction. Analysts cluster forecasts into distinct camps based on different assumptions about institutional adoption rates, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic conditions — each supported by reasonable analytical frameworks but reaching different conclusions.

Ultra-bullish projections from prominent industry figures target $200,000 to $250,000. These forecasts rest on fixed supply dynamics, accelerating institutional adoption through ETFs and corporate treasuries, and assumptions that post-halving supply squeeze combined with sustained demand will overwhelm macro headwinds. Some tie this upside specifically to liquidity cycles, arguing that if global M2 money supply growth accelerates meaningfully and the Federal Reserve maintains accommodative stance, Bitcoin could clear $200,000 by mid-to-late 2026 following historical liquidity correlation patterns.

Moderate institutional forecasts cluster in the mid-six-figure range with more nuanced conditioning. Several large financial institutions point to end-2026 ranges around $140,000–160,000 as base cases, framing these as realistic outcomes after

If you’re interested in how crypto markets are evolving beyond legacy narratives, I’ll be publishing more long-form analysis here.

All You Need to Know About What Happened to Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Today, every internet user has access to AI technologies, and the era of total automation has arrived.

By 2026, almost everything has been automated — from routine work processes and cryptocurrency market research to chart analysis and news monitoring. At every step of your work, you can connect an AI agent that will significantly reduce your workload.

Today, it is important to follow new trends to avoid missing key developments and not be left on the sidelines of the crypto world.

If you still find it difficult to understand what AI agents are, which of your work processes can be optimized, and which tools to choose for your work, this article is for you. Let’s get started!

What Are Crypto AI Agents, And How Can They Be Useful To You?

An AI agent is a virtual assistant that can analyze information, collect and rank news, perform technical analysis, and assist with crypto project research.

An AI agent can turn scattered, chaotic information into understandable and structured data that will be delivered to you at 10:00 a.m. sharp, right along with your morning coffee.

Unlike LLMs such as ChatGPT or Gemini, AI agents can operate autonomously without you having to launch them. You only need to set up the bot once, and it will then perform the task you have specified according to a set schedule.

For those who work with cryptocurrencies, there are dozens of ways to optimize your workflow. You can create an AI agent that will research new crypto projects, process and summarize crypto news, send alerts for specified events, and even run scripts using APIs.

Right now, AI agents can save you dozens of hours of work time!

It is important to understand that even large companies today are beginning to use AI agents to optimize processes, creating entire marketing and sales departments composed solely of AI agents and one real person who manages them.

However, despite the general trend toward AI, there are only a few truly worthwhile AI agents that can be used in the long term. In order to assess how good an AI assistant is, you should study:

• Data sources: It is important to understand where the AI gets its data from: not just Google search results, but also directly from blockchain nodes, Dune, or analytical services such as Messari.
• Response speed: There are niches in cryptocurrency where response speed is extremely important. First and foremost, these are trading and arbitrage. Study and compare the response speed of different AI agents.
• Does it have all the features you need? Make a list of tasks you want to optimize and see if the AI agent can offer them to you. These can include compiling PDF reports, creating dashboards, market summaries, and conducting technical or fundamental analysis.
• Integration with other services and API availability: Find out if it is possible to connect your code or API to the AI agent.
• Service price and entry threshold: AI agents are becoming more affordable every month. Compare the subscription price for your chosen AI with other services to assess its competitiveness.

Top AI agents in crypto

Guided by the criteria described above, we conducted our own market research and compiled a list of the top AI agents in crypto for 2026:

1. Ascn.ai

ASCN.AI is, in our opinion, the best AI agent. It will help you make decisions faster, save dozens of hours of work, and increase your profitability.

Unlike classic LLM models, ASCN.AI can obtain information directly from blockchain nodes and analytical services (Dune, Messari) and parse information from trading communities and news feeds. As of 2026, it is the first and only AI agent trained exclusively on Web3 data.

ASCN.AI can act as your personal assistant, allowing you to study any crypto project, its whitepaper, tokenomics, important metrics, and news in detail in a matter of seconds, analyze quotes, and determine the best point to enter and exit a coin.

For example, one ASCN.AI user found a spread between two crypto exchanges, trained the bot to find connections, and built an arbitrage strategy on this, which began to consistently earn him $100–400 per day. Alerts from the AI bot come almost instantly, opening up arbitrage opportunities that the user took advantage of.

With ASCN.AI, you can:

• Create reports on crypto projects that include tokenomics analysis, social media activity, and potential risks.
• AI can find undervalued altcoins by studying sentiment and on-chain metrics.
• Assess the likelihood of a project being a scam or a rug pull using behavioral metrics and trading patterns.

For example, when you enter the query “Trading Memecoins and Shitcoins: A Chance for Exponential Gains or a Trap,” you can get a detailed analysis of memecoins and an assessment of the chances of a life change.

You don’t need to understand complex technologies: just ask a question via the AI agent’s web interface and get a ready answer in 2 seconds. Now you can get your own “Wall Street analyst” who will help you research any question, get a working strategy for a coin, and build a further forecast for price movements.

ASCN.AI can notify you about upcoming listings, news that is relevant to your strategy, or a sharp surge in trading volume that you can profit from. Instead of paying several thousand dollars to a real crypto analyst, you pay $29/month and get the same result.

And thanks to the AI agent builder and open API, you can create your own AI assistant for $100. You can train it in your trading or arbitrage strategy, package it as a separate product, and share it with the community. The AI will work according to your principles: searching for trading ideas, performing analysis, and providing detailed summaries.

In addition, the service has a Whitelabel (from $9999). With its help, business owners can implement ASCN.AI on their website on a turnkey basis and deploy a copy on the domain in less than a week. You will receive 100% of the revenue from each sale.

Based on our analysis and user reviews, we can recommend ASCN as the best AI assistant in crypto. The tool is a real must-have for everyone from beginners to pros. You can test the service right now and see which features will be most useful to you.

Use the promo code ASCN50 on your first purchase to get +50% extra requests. For example, if you purchase a plan for 600 requests, you will receive an additional 300 requests as a bonus.

2. Grok

As of early 2026, Grok is the most powerful LLM model, surpassing even ChatGPT. Grok specializes in searching for and analyzing threads on X. This makes it an ideal tool for analyzing crypto market sentiment and finding promising new projects.

Grok can search for abnormal spikes in activity under posts, study crypto projects, and provide detailed summaries.

However, unlike ASCN.AI, Grok does not have access to blockchain nodes, so it provides information with a delay of about 30 minutes. This makes the tool unsuitable for traders and arbitrageurs who need to get info fast.

Without direct access to nodes, analysis and responses can also take 1–2 minutes.

However, Grok is still a great tool for sentiment analysis and getting basic analytics on projects and the crypto market.

3. ChatGPT in AI Agent mode

If you use ChatGPT in “Research” or “AI Agent” modes, you can achieve excellent results. The tool can be used for a wide range of tasks, from sentiment and technical analysis to project analysis and reporting.

A huge advantage is that AI can work out of the box without lengthy configuration. To get started, simply write a prompt and set the operating mode so that the AI agent starts working and gives its first answers. With most other AI, you would need dozens of hours to configure it.

However, ChatGPT does not work well with little-known altcoins. It may start making up facts and figures, which greatly interferes with analysis. Also, AI does not have access to blockchain nodes that contain up-to-date information. Therefore, it may provide data with a significant delay.

When working with AI, we strongly recommend checking all figures and facts to avoid another ChatGPT “hallucination.”

4. Other AI Agents Worth Mentioning

Above, we have reviewed a far from complete list of AI assistants. DeepSeek and Gemini may also be suitable for working with cryptocurrency.

Gemini can break a large task into several smaller ones and build a step-by-step argument. It can be useful for crypto analysts and web3 developers. However, the tool cannot be called universal, unlike ASCN.AI.

If you don’t want to spend money on AI, DeepSeek can be a good free AI agent for you that will parse data and compile reports.

However, don’t expect it to do in-depth research or provide quick answers. The tool is better suited to beginners. And if DeepSeek’s set of features is no longer enough for you, we recommend adding one of the other AI agents listed above.

Which AI Assistant is Right for You

For most tasks, whether it’s trading, arbitrage, development, or analytics, we recommend starting with ASCN.AI. It is a universal tool capable of conducting in-depth analysis, has direct access to blockchain nodes and analytical services, and has far surpassed classic LLM models in terms of development. That is why it is currently the best AI agent for the cryptosphere.

Grok is suitable for users who work with content and analytics, research projects, or are looking for new under-the-radar projects.

Other AI agents, such as ChatGPT, can provide basic answers at an average level of depth, with a slight delay of a few minutes.

Keep in mind that the field of AI agents is developing very quickly, and the title of best AI is passing from one tool to another.

In this regard, we recommend testing new AI agents periodically and studying their functionality. Good luck with your optimization!

Best AI Agents for Crypto in 2026: Top Trading and Analysis Tools was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

You probably found indicators the same way I did. Maybe it was a flashy YouTube video, a Telegram group, or some online course promising you the “secret sauce.” At first glance, those lines and numbers on the charts look like hidden codes, ready to unlock the market. It’s easy to think that if you just learn the right indicator, you’ll finally have the upper hand. I believed it too, in the beginning.

What makes indicators so convincing is how neatly they organize chaos. The market is messy — prices jump around, news comes out, and everyone’s trying to guess what happens next. An indicator, though, is clean and precise. It gives you a number or a line that seems to say, “Buy here” or “Sell now.” But that clarity is an illusion.

What an Indicator Actually Is

Let’s strip away the jargon. An indicator is just a way of looking at what’s already happened in the market. It takes price and sometimes volume and rearranges them into something easier to read. For example, a moving average isn’t showing you the future. It’s just averaging out the last several prices so you can see the general direction more easily.

That’s the core of it. Indicators don’t see anything new. They only reorganize what price has already done. They don’t know tomorrow’s news, they don’t sense panic or greed, and they don’t predict the next move. They’re like a rearview mirror — helpful for seeing where you’ve been, not where you’re going.

What Indicators Help With (And Why That Still Matters)

So, if indicators can’t see the future, what good are they? Honestly, they do help — just not in the way most beginners think.

They can:

• Show you if the market is moving with momentum or losing steam.
• Help you see if a trend is strong or starting to fade.
• Give you a sense of whether things are getting overextended — like if a stock’s been shooting up fast and might be due for a pause.

For a beginner, these are practical things. They can help you avoid jumping in at the very top of a rally, or getting scared out at the bottom of a dip. They can be a way to slow down emotional reactions, to have some structure when the market feels overwhelming. But they’re not magic — they just make the picture a little clearer.

What Indicators Cannot Do

Let’s be direct. Indicators do not predict the future. They can’t tell you with any certainty when to buy or sell. They can’t guarantee you’ll make money or avoid losses. And they don’t work on their own. If you put all your trust in an indicator, you’re still gambling — you’re just using a tool that’s based on yesterday’s data.

It’s tempting to think that if you find the right indicator, you’ve cracked the code. But every indicator has weaknesses. Sometimes they give false signals, sometimes they’re late, and sometimes they just get whipsawed by sudden news. The market doesn’t care about your indicator. It moves because of people, not because of math.

Why Beginners End Up Using Too Many Indicators

I did this too. I’d see one indicator not working, so I’d add another. Then another. Pretty soon, my chart looked like a Christmas tree, all colors and lines. I thought that if I just had the right combination, I’d get it right.

But the truth is, more indicators don’t make you smarter. They just make things more confusing. You start second-guessing every signal and you end up paralyzed by analysis. It’s not about finding the perfect indicator. It’s about not letting the search for perfection keep you from acting at all.

Sometimes, this happens because you’re afraid of being wrong. Maybe you lost money on a trade, and you think if you just had one more indicator, you’d get it right next time. But that’s not how it works. No indicator will take away the uncertainty of the market. That comes from understanding and accepting risk, not from more lines on a chart.

How Experienced Traders Actually Use Indicators

After a couple of years trading, most experienced traders settle on one or two indicators. They understand what those indicators do well, and what they don’t. They use them as a kind of background check, not as the main decision-maker.

For example, if I see the price moving up and my moving average is also rising, that’s a gentle nudge in the same direction. But if the market looks shaky and the indicator is flashing “overbought,” I might slow down or wait for confirmation from the price itself. Indicators help me see the bigger picture and keep my emotions in check, but the final call is always mine.

More important than any indicator is the structure of the trade — where you get in, where you plan to get out, and how much you’re willing to lose. Indicators are just one small part of that process.

Where Responsibility Really Lies

Here’s something that took me a while to realize: indicators don’t take trades. You do. No indicator will save you from a bad decision, and no indicator will make money for you if you’re not paying attention. You’re the one who has to decide when to act, when to wait, and when to cut losses.

It’s easy to hand over responsibility to a tool, especially when you’re starting out and things feel overwhelming. But the market doesn’t reward passivity. You have to own your choices, good and bad. The indicator is just there to help you think, not to think for you.

A Simple Way to Think About Indicators Going Forward

Think of indicators as a flashlight in a dark room. They help you see a little better, but they don’t show you everything. You still have to move carefully, watch for obstacles, and decide where you want to go. Don’t expect the flashlight to lead you out by itself. Use it to see more clearly, but keep your own judgment close.

If you keep that in mind, indicators can be a useful part of your process. But they’re not the answer, and they’re not a shortcut. They’re just one piece of a much bigger picture.

This article is part of Practical Trading Education, where indicators, risk, and trading psychology are explained clearly — without hype or shortcuts.

What Indicators Really Do (Truth for Beginners) was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

The basic reason many people invest for the long term in cryptocurrencies is that they believe crypto will continue to prosper into the long term future. This belief is shaken when the market dips and especially when it tanks like during crypto winter. While enthusiasm and fear of missing out commonly drive crypto investment and thus drive prices higher, fear of losing all of one’s investment also causes market panic and pushes prices lower than they otherwise would go in a more rational market. The fact is that for those who invest in cryptocurrencies there are other ways to profit than just by buying and holding or trying to time the market for buying and selling. Here are some thoughts about how to profit from a crypto down market with options.

Grab the AI Prompts That Think Like Wall Street Pros

What Are Crypto Options?

Options are contracts to either buy or sell an asset such as a cryptocurrency, stock, or futures contract as of a future date at a price specified in the contract. Options come in two flavors, calls and puts. With a call contract the buyer agrees to purchase an asset and the seller agrees to sell it at the contract price also called the strike price. The buyer is paying for the right to buy even if the price of the asset, a cryptocurrency, has gone up significantly. The seller is betting that the price of the cryptocurrency or other asset will not go up. Thus he or she will pocket the premium paid for the contract and the buyer will be out the premium he or she paid. The premium or cost of the contract will vary according to how likely the market believes that the price of the asset will rise sufficiently to earn the buyer a profit. Put contracts allow the buyer of the contract to sell an asset at a future date at a set strike price while the seller is obliger to buy.

Where Can You Trade Crypto Options?

The Chicago Board Options Exchange is where one trades stock options and they also support options trading for Bitcoin and Ether. You can also trade options on the Binance, Bybit, OKX, and other crypto exchanges. In all cases you are well advised to learn about options trading and the various strategies that can be employed to gain profits and avoid losses.

What Crypto Options Strategy Is Profitable In a Down Market?

The simple answer to this question is that you want to buy calls on a cryptocurrency when believe it will go up in price and puts when you expect it to go down. However, professional options traders do not just buy calls or puts as a rule. They mix and match calls and puts in order to limit their risk while seeking profits. These are called spreads.

Bear Put Spread

A bear put spread is when you buy a put contract to sell a cryptocurrency at a higher strike price and sell a put contract at a lower strike price. Both put contracts are for the same cryptocurrency with the same contract expiration date. The premium for the put that you sell will be somewhat lower than the premium for the put that you buy. The this spread start with a small expense which is erased as the market price of the cryptocurrency falls. The maximum profit occurs when the market price falls to or below the lower strike price and the maximum loss occurs if the crypto price climbs above the higher strike price. With this approach the trader is trading off a potentially larger profit for a more secure albeit smaller profit and a limit on any potential loss.

Bear Call Spread

Similar approach is a bear call spread in which the trader buys and sells puts on the same crypto currency with the same expiration date. In this case the purchased call has a lower strike price than the one that the trader sells. Unlike with the bear put spread the bear call spread starts with a slight credit and has a limited loss if the crypto price rises above the upper strike price.

There are many types of spreads and other approaches to trading crypto options in both down and up markets. The smart trader will learn how to use a few of these and apply them wisely. The best way to start is to only trade in simulation trading using one’s work station software. Do not risk your own money on crypto options trading until you fully understand the strategies you will employ and can routinely make a “paper profit” in your simulation trading.

Steal My Full AI Investing Prompt Playbook

Originally published at https://profitableinvestingtips.com on January 12, 2026.

How to Profit from a Crypto Down Market with Options was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Every time you swap tokens on Uniswap, you’re either quietly compounding wealth — or unknowingly leaking money through slippage, price impact, and excessive gas fees.

Most DeFi users obsess over yield, APYs, and “the next token,” but overlook the invisible mechanics that quietly erode returns.

For high-net-worth investors, active traders, and long-term DeFi participants, these inefficiencies can add up to thousands or even millions lost over time.

This article breaks down slippage, price impact, and gas optimization on Uniswap in plain English — while also diving deep enough for serious investors who want capital efficiency, execution precision, and smarter on-chain strategies.

Whether you’re:

• A DeFi beginner trying to avoid costly mistakes
• An experienced crypto investor optimizing large trades
• A yield farmer, DAO participant, or liquidity provider
• Or someone using DeFi as part of a broader wealth diversification or debt relief strategy

…understanding these mechanics is non-negotiable.

What Is Slippage on Uniswap and Why Does It Matter?

Uniswap isn’t just a decentralized exchange — it’s core financial infrastructure for Web3.

As the largest decentralized exchange (DEX) by volume, Uniswap:

• Processes billions in monthly trading volume
• Serves as a pricing oracle for DeFi protocols
• Enables permissionless token swaps without intermediaries
• Replaces traditional market makers with automated liquidity pools

For investors focused on financial independence, alternative income streams, and decentralized wealth management, Uniswap is often the first and most frequent point of interaction with DeFi.

But unlike centralized exchanges, execution quality on Uniswap is your responsibility.

That’s where slippage, price impact, and gas optimization come in.

What Is Slippage on Uniswap?

Slippage on Uniswap is the difference between the expected price of a token swap and the actual price at which the transaction executes, caused by liquidity depth, trade size, market volatility, and automated market maker (AMM) mechanics.

In traditional finance, this happens during volatile market conditions. In DeFi, it’s structural.

Simple Slippage Example

You attempt to swap:

• 10 ETH → USDC
• Expected price: $3,000 per ETH
• Expected output: $30,000

But the transaction executes at:

• $2,940 per ETH
• Actual output: $29,400

That $600 difference? Slippage.

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Why Slippage Happens in DeFi

Slippage on Uniswap occurs due to liquidity mechanics, not market manipulation.

Key causes include:

1. Liquidity Pool Depth

Uniswap uses automated market maker (AMM) pools instead of order books.

If a pool is shallow:

• Large trades move the price dramatically
• Slippage increases exponentially

2. Trade Size Relative to Pool

Swapping $100 in a $50 million pool? Minimal slippage.
Swapping $100,000 in a $500,000 pool? Significant slippage.

3. Market Volatility

Fast price movements between transaction submission and confirmation increase execution variance.

4. Front-Running & MEV

Bots monitor pending transactions and exploit large swaps by:

• Buying ahead of you
• Selling immediately after

This increases slippage and worsens execution.

Slippage Tolerance: The Hidden Risk Setting Most Users Ignore

When you set slippage tolerance on Uniswap, you’re defining how much value you’re willing to lose to complete a trade.

Common defaults:

• 0.5% for stable pairs
• 1% for liquid tokens
• 2–5% for volatile or low-liquidity tokens

Why High Slippage Tolerance Is Dangerous

High tolerance:

• Signals MEV bots to attack your trade
• Increases front-running risk
• Allows extremely unfavorable execution

For large investors, slippage tolerance is a capital protection tool, not a convenience setting.

Slippage is one of those concepts that only becomes obvious after it costs real money.

Consider saving this article so you can revisit it before making large or time-sensitive swaps.

What Is Price Impact on Uniswap?

Price impact measures how much your trade moves the market price.

Unlike slippage (which includes external factors), price impact is deterministic — it’s built into Uniswap’s math.

The AMM Formula (Simplified)

Uniswap pools follow:

x × y = k

When you buy one asset:

• Its supply decreases
• The price automatically increases
• Large trades distort the ratio

This is why:

• Small trades barely move price
• Large trades dramatically worsen execution

Slippage Vs Price Impact: Critical Difference

For high-volume traders, price impact is often the bigger enemy.

How to Reduce Slippage on Uniswap

• Trade tokens with deep liquidity pools
• Split large trades into smaller transactions
• Set conservative slippage tolerance
• Avoid trading during high volatility
• Use Layer 2 networks when possible

How Large Trades Destroy Returns Without You Noticing

Institutional traders split orders for a reason.

In DeFi:

• A single large swap can move price 5–15%
• Smaller sequential swaps often result in better average execution

For wealth-focused investors, trade structuring matters more than token selection.

Gas Fees: The Silent Profit Killer

Ethereum gas fees are the cost of executing transactions on-chain.

On Uniswap, gas fees vary based on:

• Network congestion
• Transaction complexity
• Priority fee selection

Why Gas Optimization Is a Wealth Strategy

If you:

• Make frequent swaps
• Provide liquidity
• Rebalance portfolios
• Farm yield

…gas inefficiency can erase profits faster than poor market timing.

Understanding Gas Fees Components

Gas fees consist of:

• Base fee (burned)
• Priority fee (paid to validators)

During peak congestion:

• Fees spike unpredictably
• Poor timing costs real money

How Can You Reduce Gas Fees on Uniswap?

• Trade during low network congestion periods
• Avoid overpaying priority fees
• Use Layer 2 networks like Arbitrum or Optimism
• Batch transactions when possible
• Monitor Ethereum gas trends before swapping

MEV, Front-Running & Sandwich Attacks Explained

Miner Extractable Value (MEV) is one of the most misunderstood risks in DeFi.

What Happens in a Sandwich Attack

1. Bot detects your large swap
2. Bot buys before you
3. Your trade executes at worse price
4. Bot sells immediately after

You get worse execution, pay full gas and bot extracts risk-free profit.

How to Protect Yourself from MEV

1. Reduce Slippage Tolerance

Lower tolerance = fewer attacks.

2. Break Large Trades into Smaller Ones

Reduces MEV profitability.

3. Use MEV-Protected RPCs

Some wallets route transactions privately.

4. Trade on Layer 2

Less MEV competition than Ethereum mainnet.

Many losses in decentralized trading come from structural mechanics rather than market direction.

You may want to save this article or share it with someone new to Uniswap who would benefit from understanding these risks early.

Why This Matters for Long-Term Wealth & Income

For investors focused on:

• Passive income
• DeFi yield strategies
• Portfolio rebalancing
• Capital preservation
• Debt relief via alternative income

…execution efficiency compounds over time.

A 1–2% loss per trade doesn’t feel painful — until it happens hundreds of times.

Slippage & Gas in the Context of Debt Relief

Many users turn to crypto and DeFi:

• After financial setbacks
• To escape high-interest debt
• To generate alternative income

Poor execution:

• Undermines recovery efforts
• Adds unnecessary friction
• Turns opportunity into frustration

Understanding Uniswap mechanics is financial literacy for the decentralized age.

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Uniswap Best Practices Summary (Bookmark This)

Before every Uniswap trade:

• Check liquidity depth
• Review price impact
• Set conservative slippage tolerance
• Avoid peak gas hours
• Prefer Layer 2 when possible
• Split large trades
• Watch for MEV risk

These habits separate professional DeFi users from casual gamblers.

Conclusion: DeFi Rewards Precision, Not Hype

Uniswap is powerful but unforgiving.

In decentralized finance:

• No refunds
• No customer support
• No centralized safety nets

Your edge isn’t insider information — it’s execution discipline.

By mastering:

• Slippage control
• Price impact awareness
• Gas optimization strategies

…you protect capital, increase efficiency, and build sustainable on-chain wealth.

Smart execution isn’t optional anymore — it’s the difference between using DeFi and being used by it.

Understanding Slippage, Price Impact & Gas Optimization on Uniswap was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Crypto.com looks cheap on the surface — but for many investors, the real costs are hiding in plain sight.

Millions of users are drawn to Crypto.com by flashy marketing, competitive yields, and promises of “low fees.” But once you start trading, staking, or moving funds, a different picture often emerges — one shaped by hidden spreads, execution slippage, withdrawal fees, and opportunity costs that quietly eat into your returns.

If you’ve ever wondered why your portfolio underperforms despite “doing everything right”, this article may explain more than you expect.

In this deep-dive, we break down the true cost of using Crypto.com, revealing what most investors never calculate — but absolutely should.

Whether you’re a retail investor, high-net-worth crypto holder, yield seeker, or long-term wealth builder, understanding these hidden costs could save you thousands of dollars over time.

Why Hidden Fees Matter More Than You Think

Most crypto investors obsess over headline fees:

• “0% trading fees”
• “No commission”
• “High APY yields”

But seasoned investors know the truth:

The most expensive costs in crypto are rarely disclosed upfront.

Instead, they appear in:

• Wide bid-ask spreads
• Poor execution prices
• Slippage during volatile markets
• Forced conversions between tokens
• Withdrawal and network fees
• Opportunity costs from locked funds

These costs don’t feel painful in isolation — but compounded over months or years, they can dramatically reduce real investment returns.

A Quick Overview of Crypto.com’s Ecosystem

Before dissecting the costs, it’s important to understand how Crypto.com operates.

Crypto.com is not a single platform — it’s an ecosystem that includes:

• Crypto.com App (main retail trading app)
• Crypto.com Exchange (advanced trading, limited regions)
• DeFi Wallet
• Crypto Earn
• Crypto.com Visa Cards
• NFT Marketplace

Each product has its own fee structure, and many users unknowingly move between them — triggering hidden costs along the way.

The Biggest Hidden Cost #1: Trading Spreads

What Is a Spread?

The spread is the difference between:

• The price you can buy an asset for
• The price you can sell that same asset for

On Crypto.com’s main app, spreads are not transparently displayed — and this is where many investors lose money without realizing it.

How Crypto.com Spreads Work

Unlike traditional exchanges that charge a visible trading fee, Crypto.com often embeds its revenue into the spread itself.

This means:

• You may see “0% commission”
• But receive a worse execution price

In calm markets, spreads may appear reasonable.

In volatile markets, spreads can widen significantly, especially on:

• Altcoins
• Low-liquidity pairs
• Meme coins
• New listings

Why Spreads Hurt Long-Term Investors

Let’s say:

• You buy $10,000 of crypto
• You lose 1.5% on the spread
• You later sell and lose another 1.5%

That’s 3% gone — before market performance even matters.

Over repeated trades, spreads quietly compound against you, acting like an invisible tax on your portfolio.

Hidden Cost #2: Slippage During Execution

What Is Slippage?

Slippage occurs when your trade executes at a worse price than expected due to:

• Market volatility
• Low liquidity
• Order size relative to market depth

On Crypto.com’s app, trades are often executed as market orders, leaving users exposed to slippage.

Why Slippage Is Worse Than You Think

Slippage increases during:

• Sudden price spikes
• Market crashes
• News-driven volatility
• High trading volume events

Retail investors often discover slippage only after the trade executes — when it’s too late.

The faster the market moves, the more you pay for convenience.

Hidden Cost #3: App vs Exchange Pricing Differences

One of the most misunderstood aspects of Crypto.com is the price discrepancy between:

• The Crypto.com App
• The Crypto.com Exchange

Many users assume prices are the same. They are not.

Why This Matters

The app prioritizes simplicity and speed — not price efficiency.

The exchange offers:

• Tighter spreads
• Order books
• Limit orders
• Lower fees for active traders

But many users never migrate — effectively paying a “convenience premium” every time they trade.

This is one of those articles you’ll want to reference later. Save this post before your next crypto trade — especially if you use Crypto.com, Coinbase, or Binance.

Understanding spreads, slippage, and execution costs can quietly save you thousands over time.

Hidden Cost #4: Withdrawal and Network Fees

Crypto Doesn’t Move for Free

When withdrawing crypto from Crypto.com, users often encounter:

• Fixed withdrawal fees
• Network-based gas fees
• Minimum withdrawal thresholds

These fees vary widely by asset and network.

Why Withdrawals Are a Silent Wealth Drain

Small, frequent withdrawals can:

• Multiply fees
• Force users to wait for optimal timing
• Create friction that traps capital on-platform

For investors managing cash flow or debt repayment strategies, liquidity friction is a real cost.

Hidden Cost #5: Forced Conversions and Token Pathways

Crypto.com frequently routes transactions through:

• CRO
• Stablecoins
• Proprietary liquidity pathways

Each conversion introduces:

• Spread losses
• Potential slippage
• Taxable events (depending on jurisdiction)

Even if each step costs “only” 0.3–0.7%, multiple hops can result in meaningful capital erosion.

Hidden Cost #6: Crypto Earn Lockups & Opportunity Cost

High APY Isn’t Free Money

Crypto Earn advertises attractive yields — but they come with:

• Fixed lock-up periods
• Reduced liquidity
• Market exposure risk

During lockups:

• You can’t rebalance
• You can’t exit positions
• You can’t respond to macro shifts

The Real Cost: Missed Opportunities

Opportunity cost is invisible — but brutal.

If markets move against you, or better yield strategies emerge elsewhere, locked funds can:

• Underperform benchmarks
• Delay debt reduction strategies
• Increase risk exposure

Hidden Cost #7: Visa Card Staking Requirements

Crypto.com Visa cards are popular — but staking CRO introduces:

• Price volatility risk
• Capital lockups
• Reward dilution during downturns

Cashback rewards often:

• Depend on CRO price stability
• Are clawed back through token depreciation

For yield-focused investors, the risk-adjusted return may be far lower than advertised.

Hidden Cost #8: Tax Complexity and Reporting Burden

Every:

• Trade
• Conversion
• Reward
• Cashback payout

May be a taxable event.

Crypto.com provides transaction history — but:

• Cost basis may be unclear
• Spread losses aren’t itemized
• Manual reconciliation is often required

For high-volume investors, this creates time, accounting, and compliance costs rarely discussed.

Who Pays the Highest Price on Crypto.com?

Crypto.com’s hidden costs disproportionately affect:

• Long-term investors who rebalance frequently
• High-net-worth users making large trades
• Yield seekers rotating strategies
• Investors using debt reduction or cash-flow optimization plans

Ironically, the more serious you are about investing, the more these costs matter.

How to Reduce Hidden Costs on Crypto.com

While no platform is perfect, informed users can mitigate damage:

1. Use the Exchange instead of the App
2. Avoid market orders during volatility
3. Compare prices before executing trades
4. Batch withdrawals to reduce fees
5. Calculate net yield after spreads
6. Avoid unnecessary conversions
7. Treat lockups as strategic, not passive

The Bigger Lesson: Transparency Is a Wealth Skill

Crypto.com isn’t uniquely “bad” — but it is a powerful case study in how modern financial platforms monetize complexity.

The future of investing belongs to those who:

• Look beyond headline numbers
• Measure total cost of ownership
• Understand execution risk
• Think in long-term net returns

Final Thoughts: Convenience Has a Price

Crypto.com excels at accessibility.

But accessibility often comes at the cost of price efficiency, transparency, and control.

If you’re building wealth — especially in volatile markets — every hidden percentage point matters.

The real risk isn’t volatility. It’s not knowing what you’re paying.

Enjoyed the breakdown? Clap if this helped you see crypto costs more clearly and save this article before your next trade.

The Hidden Costs of Crypto.com: Fees, Spreads, and Slippage Explained was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Data scope: This analysis tracks publicly disclosed equity rounds in Nigeria-based startups from January to December 2025. It excludes debt, grants, and infrastructure fund closes.

The Infrastructure-First Thesis

When you look at Nigerian VC funding in 2025, the headline is simple: fintech dominated with 91% of capital.

But when you zoom out to five years, the story gets more interesting: Fintech: $3.73 billion, Logistics: $137 million A 27x difference.

And 2021 — the year logistics “peaked” at $110M — was actually the year the sector’s fate was sealed. Because that $110M? It wasn’t really for logistics. TradeDepot’s $110 million Series B — the largest logistics round ever in Nigeria — funded their Buy-Now-Pay-Later product.

A logistics company had to build credit infrastructure to attract that capital. The logistics companies that survived the 2022–2025 funding winter weren’t the ones with better routing algorithms or more efficient warehouses.

They were the ones that became fintech companies. This is the data-driven story of why Nigerian VCs chose infrastructure over applications — and what it means for anyone building in Nigeria in 2026.

The 2025 Data: Infrastructure Still Dominates To understand the infrastructure-first thesis, let’s start with what happened in 2025.

The 2025 Funding Landscape

Deal data was compiled from publicly available disclosures, press releases, and VC reporting platforms. I tracked funding activity across major local and international backers to understand where capital actually flowed in 2025.

FINTECH:

• Moniepoint: $90M (Venture Round) — SME Payments & Banking
• LemFi: $53M (Series B) — Cross-border Payments
• Kredete: $22M (Series A) — Credit & Stablecoin Infrastructure
• PaidHR: $1.8M (Seed) — HR/Payroll SaaS
• Accrue: $1.58M (Seed, Lattice Fund-led) — Payments
• Zazu: $1M (Y Combinator et al.) — SME Banking
• NjiaPay: $1M+ (Pre-seed) — Payments

LOGISTICS/DELIVERY:

• Chowdeck: $9M (Series A) — Food Delivery

CLEANTECH:

• Rana Energy: $3M — Clean Energy/Climate Tech
• Salpha Energy: $1.3M (All On/Shell fund) — Renewable Energy
• SunFi: $1M (Series A) — Renewable Energy

EDTECH & AGRITECH:

• JADA: $1M (Series A) — EdTech/AI Training
• Startbutton, Cubbes, Forti Foods, Raba: $0.1M each (Pre-seed)

Fintech Dominated Everything

FINTECH TOTAL: ~$171.4M

EVERYTHING ELSE: ~$15.7M

91% of deployed capital went into a single sector — even though fintech represented less than half of total deal count.

This wasn’t a one-off.

The Five-Year Pattern: Infrastructure vs Applications

To understand how dominant fintech has become, let’s compare it to the sector that should be its biggest competitor: B2B e-commerce and logistics.

Nigeria has perfect conditions for logistics tech:

• 200+ million people
• Massive informal retail (58% of GDP)
• Broken distribution infrastructure
• Surging e-commerce demand

Yet this is what happened:

Over five years, fintech raised 27x more capital than logistics.

THE NUMBERS

How The Story Played Out

2020 — The Starting Gap

• Fintech: $439M
• Logistics: $0.8M

Fintech already had an overwhelming lead.

2021 — The Brief Hope

• Fintech: $1.1B
• Logistics: $110M

Logistics peaked — entirely driven by 2–3 mega deals.

2022–2025 — The Collapse
Logistics funding collapsed:

• $110M → $15M → ~$0 → $2M → $9M

Fintech stayed resilient:

• $1.2B → $410M → $410M → $171M

From 2021’s peak of $110M, logistics fell 95% to just $9M in 2025.

Fintech maintained $400M+ annually for three straight years.

The inflection point was 2021.

That year, while logistics peaked at $110M (all a mega-deal), fintech exploded to $1.1 billion — spreading across dozens of deals, multiple sectors (payments, lending, crypto), and building actual infrastructure.

WHY LOGISTICS FUNDING CONTRACTED

The Big Deals Were Illusions

Look at logistics’ “peak” in 2021:

TradeDepot: $110M wasn't really logistics it was for Buy-Now-Pay-Later product. (credit infrastructure).

The biggest logistics rounds were actually fintech in disguise.

and then

The Global “VC Winter” Hit Logistics Hardest

Transport and logistics funding in Africa collapsed from 2022 to 2023, while fintech held steady at $410M both years.

When capital tightened: VC Risk Preferences Changed

why?

• Logistics = (asset-heavy, thin margins, operational risk)
• Fintech = (digital-first, scalable, strong unit economics)

VCs didn’t abandon logistics because they stopped believing in commerce. They realized logistics couldn’t scale without infrastructure underneath.

Why Fintech keeps Winning

1. It solves Infrastructure Gaps

Fintech filled what banks couldn’t:

• Payments rails
• Credit access
• FX protection
• Identity and compliance

These aren’t “nice to haves.” They’re missing pieces of the financial system. Fintechs stepped in to fill these gaps with mobile wallets, USSD banking, alternative credit scoring using payment history, and stablecoin infrastructure for dollar-pegged savings.

Moniepoint didn’t build a better bank — it built banking infrastructure in 300,000 agent locations, bringing financial services to areas banks won’t serve. The company completed 5.2 billion transactions in 2023.

Anchor didn’t build another payment app — it built APIs that let other companies embed payments, payroll, and lending. The platform processed ₦1 trillion (~$650M) in transactions in 2024.

Kredete isn’t just another lending platform — it’s stablecoin-backed credit infrastructure that solves both the lending gap and currency risk simultaneously.

2. Better Unit Economics

The business models tell the story:

Fintech Infrastructure:

• Digital-first (low marginal costs)
• Transaction fees scale with volume
• Network effects (more users = more valuable)
• High switching costs (integrated into customers’ core systems)

Logistics/B2B Commerce:

• Asset-heavy (warehouses, trucks, inventory)
• Thin margins (typically 3–5%)
• High customer acquisition costs
• Operational complexity (theft, spoilage, route optimization)

3. Regulation Favours Fintech

The Nigerian government actively supported fintech growth in 2024–2025:

• CBN lifted its ban on banks servicing crypto businesses (December 2023)
• Launched open banking frameworks and fintech sandboxes (2024)
• SEC introduced the Accelerated Regulatory Incubation Program (ARIP) for crypto firms
• Approved crypto exchanges
• Strengthened KYC/AML rules, building credibility with investors

These fintech-friendly reforms rebuilt investor confidence. As a result, Nigeria remained a core market for fintech capital in recent years.

Meanwhile, logistics received no special infrastructure support, no regulatory fast-tracks, and no government backing.

4. Proof of Scale Exists

Fintech demonstrated it could actually scale in African conditions:

• Nigeria processed $1.68 trillion in mobile-money transactions in 2024
• Flutterwave reached ~$3B valuation
• OPay achieved $2B valuation with 50M users and $12B/month in volume

Logistics is still proving its economics.

5. The Infrastructure-First Thesis

VCs realized a fundamental truth: you need the rails before you can run the trains.

Not:

“What apps look good?”

But:

“What rails must exist before anything else works?”

Infrastructure first. Applications later.

That’s the playbook.

The market is clear: build the infrastructure first. Consumer apps come after.

that is why a number of logistics companies that lived — mutated:

THE SURVIVORS ALL PIVOTED TO INFRASTRUCTURE

• TradeDepot → credit infrastructure
• OmniRetail → embedded credit (Omnipay, now disbursing ₦19B/month)
• Fez → POS distribution for fintechs
• OPay → pivoted from mobility into payments

Logistics had to become fintech to survive.

The Real Truth

Nigerian commerce models without embedded financial infrastructure have struggled to scale.

Logistics companies aren’t competing with other logistics companies.

They’re competing with fintech’s;

• Unit economics
• Network effects
• Regulatory tailwinds

What This Means for 2026

If 2025 showed fintech infrastructure dominating everything else, 2026 will double down on that thesis.

Expect More Funding For:

• Credit infrastructure (alternative scoring, stablecoin-backed lending)
• Payment rails (cross-border, remittances, merchant infrastructure)
• Embedded finance APIs (payroll, insurance, wealth management)
• Stablecoin and crypto infrastructure (dollar savings, instant settlement)
• B2B tools and developer platforms

Expect Less Funding For:

• Pure logistics
• B2B marketplaces without credit
• Consumer apps without rails underneath

The CoreThesis

Nigerian VCs are funding the operating system, not the apps. They’re betting on:

• Companies solving fundamental infrastructure gaps
• B2B models with better unit economics than B2C
• Platforms that other businesses must use
• Digital-first models that can scale without massive operational costs

For Founders

If you’re building in Nigeria in 2026, ask yourself:

• Am I building infrastructure or building on infrastructure?
• Does my business model require expensive physical operations, or can it scale digitally?
• Am I solving a fundamental gap, or building a “better version” of something that exists?

The market has spoken. Infrastructure wins.

The Bigger Picture

This isn’t about fintech being “hot.” It’s about fintech solving fundamental infrastructure problems that were blocking everything else from scaling.

You can’t build efficient logistics without digital payments. You can’t scale B2B commerce without embedded credit. You can’t serve informal retailers without mobile money infrastructure.

Nigerian VCs figured this out. They’re funding the picks and shovels, not the miners.

And once those rails are built — the payment infrastructure, the credit systems, the identity layers, the compliance tools — then consumer apps can scale on top.

And that single insight explains 91% of capital concentration in 2025.

2026 will test this thesis.
All signs point to it holding.

Data & Methodology

This analysis is based on publicly disclosed equity rounds for Nigeria-based startups from January to December 2025, sourced from press releases, VC disclosures, and industry reporting platforms including TechCabal, Techpoint, BusinessDay, and TechCrunch. Debt financing, grants, and fund closes (e.g., Ventures Platform’s $64M Fund II) are excluded. Figures are approximations based on available data; not all deals disclose exact amounts

Why Nigerian VCs Bet $3.73B on Fintech and Only $137M on Logistics: The Infrastructure-First Thesis was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

AI has attracted unprecedented levels of capital and attention. And questions are growing about the so-called AI bubble: Are too many startups chasing the same ideas? Are valuations running ahead of real adoption? And will all this investment pay off — or pop?

GeekWire polled a handful of Seattle-area venture capitalists about whether they think an AI bubble exists, and how startups should prepare as they plan for 2026.

Taken together, the investors paint a picture of a market that is overheated in places, but far from broken. They see clear signs of excess in AI — especially in early-stage private companies where valuations often outpace real traction. But they largely reject the idea of a catastrophic bubble, and most argue that the technology itself is already delivering real value.

They differ on the details: Some see the biggest excess in data center buildouts. Others point to narrative-driven startups raising at huge valuations without real customer traction. One investor puts AI’s full impact 10 to 20 years out. Another sees immediate opportunity as companies rethink their software spending, making longtime vendors vulnerable.

Their advice to startup founders: ignore the hype, focus on real customer problems, build durable revenue and efficient businesses, and be ready for some market cooling.

Read their full responses below.

Sabrina Albert (Wu), partner at Madrona

“There’s clear froth in parts of the AI market, especially in early-stage private valuations where companies are priced well ahead of fundamentals, which fits a classic ‘bubble’ definition. In the public markets, the strongest AI companies are backing valuations with outsized earnings and growth, so it doesn’t look like a traditional bubble there.

The most pronounced exuberance is in the private markets, particularly at seed and Series A, where many investors are trying to get in earlier on AI exposure. As a result, capital is chasing startups with limited traction and valuations that price in outcomes that may take years of execution to justify.

Startups should focus on durable business fundamentals early on. Build repeatable revenue through annual or multi-year contracts, solve real customer problems, and differentiate by integrating deeply into the customer tech stack to create real product and company flywheels. Long-term success comes from delivering measurable value and defensible growth over time.”

Cameron Borumand, general partner at Fuse

“Many factors are at play here. You have a new and genuinely transformative technology in AI. Over the long term, it will radically reshape how nearly every industry operates. At the same time, history tells us that new technologies tend to be overestimated in the short term and underestimated in the long term. The most profound, fully realized impacts of AI may still be 10-to-20 years away.

In the near term (the next few years), I expect some pullback in the public markets as investors come to terms with the fact that true ‘enterprise readiness’ for AI will take time. This doesn’t suggest anything catastrophic — just that the roughly 21 percent year-over-year growth we’ve seen in the Nasdaq is unlikely to be sustainable and may revert closer to the 30-year average of around 10 percent. After a few meaningful pullbacks, pundits will inevitably claim that AI is overhyped. In reality, this would simply represent a normalization after an extraordinary, AI-fueled run in the public markets.

Late-stage private markets will see some overly hyped companies — this happens in every boom cycle. The winners will be bigger than ever, but the losses will also be bigger than ever. When you have companies like Anthropic growing from $1 billion to a projected $9 billion of revenue in 2025, it’s clear that AI is already delivering real, material impact in the world.

For startups, there’s no better time to be building than now. M&A markets are back, customers have budget, and talent wants to work on interesting projects. With that said, there is a lot of noise, so it’s best to go deep and really focus on a core customer problem. Most of the growth we’ve seen to date is in the infrastructure layer — the next few years will be about the next generation of AI-powered applications.”

Chris DeVore, founding managing partner at Founders’ Co-op

“Yes, a significant amount of capital being deployed globally in AI (and particularly in the data center buildout) is almost certainly being misallocated. Specifically in startups, outside a few presumed winners (OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor), the concern is less overcapitalization and more the prices at which financings are being done relative to the actual cash flows and margin potential of the companies being financed.

That said, unlike some recent bubbles I can think of (crypto, metaverse, etc.) there are actual babies in the bathwater this time. LLMs are remarkably capable tools even at their current state of development, and will remain core to many software development and knowledge work tasks long after rationality has returned to the financial landscape.

The founder and investor challenge in moments like the current one is how to make decisions that will look smart ten years from now, not just in the current moment. Are there ways to apply LLMs to create durable business value in segments of the economy that are not likely to be overcapitalized or competed to zero by the near-term flood of dollars? The only alternative strategy is to try to pick winners in the capital wars and pay whatever the market demands for those assets, but history suggests that’s a very low odds proposition for even the best players.

The recipe for success in times like this is not that different from any other time: pick a customer segment that you understand better than anyone else, engage deeply with those customers to understand what problems you can uniquely solve with LLMs that were too hard or expensive to solve previously, build quickly and iteratively to show value to those customers, and maintain that pace of shipping and learning for as long as you can.

That may sound simple, but it’s remarkable how few founding teams are able to pull it off, and that why startups are so hard, and so fun.”

Sheila Gulati, managing director at Tola Capital

“Broadly, I don’t think we’re in an AI bubble right now. Similar concerns existed when we launched the Azure platform about fifteen years ago. Back then, people were initially worried about racing to a zero-margin business. 

Today’s massive AI infrastructure buildouts will shape the operational software layers that drive real-world performance — compute orchestration, data pipelines, memory systems, and large-scale inference efficiency. Value is shifting toward packaging and deploying intelligence across enterprise workflows. 

Enterprise software startups should position themselves in the growing TAM of delivering full, end-to-end solutions and new ways of doing things where humans collaborate with AI agents. Winning startups will encompass both the growing IT TAM and economics of a portion of the labor market as well.

We are now seeing unprecedented malleability of CIO budgets. The deeply entrenched application stack can now shift to new players which are built with AI from the ground up. The market opportunity is massive, and companies should set their sights on building the new megacaps, not minor feature companies.”

Andy Liu, co-founding partner at Unlock Venture Partners

“Yes, we are in an AI bubble, but not in the way most people think.

Capital and valuations are running well ahead of fundamentals, particularly for companies without clear customer pull, durable differentiation, or credible/reasonable paths to profitability. We’re seeing a growing gap between narrative-driven AI companies where ‘AI’ is largely a positioning exercise, and value-driven AI companies that use the technology to deliver measurable, repeatable value for customers.

The bubble seems most pronounced at the early and growth stages where AI storytelling can temporarily substitute for traction and raise capital at lofty valuations. Some strong companies will emerge from this cycle, but there will be meaningful drawdowns, recaps, or shutdowns as many startups fail to grow into those expectations.

Looking ahead to 2026, my advice to founders is straightforward:

• Build real businesses, not decks. Products today can be built quickly with real revenue before raising capital.
• Prioritize efficiency, customer ROI, and unit economics.
• Use AI to create real leverage, not excuses for burning capital.

2026 is going to be an incredible moment to build. The cost of experimentation and building products has collapsed, and founders no longer need educational credentials (CS degrees or an MBA) to create real products and revenue. The next generation of durable AI companies will be built by small teams who focus less on hype and more on efficient execution. We’re definitely excited to see more teams building incredible products this upcoming year.”

Annie Luchsinger, partner at Breakers

“From my perspective, what we’re seeing is less an AI bubble and more a classic venture cycle playing out around a genuinely transformative platform shift. Venture has always adapted to new normals alongside major technology inflections (cloud, mobile, social), and AI is the fastest-moving one we’ve seen to date.

The difference this time is speed, scale, and capital availability. AI adoption is happening at a faster clip and at a much larger scale than prior platform shifts, all while private-market capital has reached historic highs. As those forces collide, pricing, timelines, and investor behavior evolve.

Capital moving ahead of fundamentals is not new. There will be some shakeouts, but that doesn’t mean underlying value creation isn’t happening. Companies with real technology, real distribution, and real customers will endure.”

You may be noticing many people becoming interested in proprietary trading as a potential career choice. The idea of having a solid work-life balance when your job is highly demanding and very fast-paced is also coming up.

Many people perceive trading as heavy pressure work, which has no leisure time at all. However, a lot of traders, especially young ones, are starting to shift their expectations regarding the amount of time they should devote to their jobs. The question now is whether it is possible to have a realistic work-life balance as well as a career in prop trading.

The Reality of Prop Trading Workloads

The workload that prop traders face is often long and stressful, with working hours closely linked to the movements of the market that they usually deal with. They feel tremendous work pressure to make sure they are producing consistent and dependable results. The fast nature of trading and the need to make split-second decisions take a huge mental and emotional toll. During times of great market volatility, traders even get limited downtime, as they realize they must be there and be prepared to act on the news. The urgency and competitiveness of the environment in which they operate make it even less likely they will get into a routine that even remotely resembles a “normal” work-life balance.

The Human Side of Prop Trading

Probably, one of the saddest aspects of being a prop trader is the personal sacrifices that generally come along with it. You will find many traders struggling to maintain some family relationships and social commitments or simply disappearing from social life. The stress that traders go through on a daily basis makes it even more difficult to maintain their mental health and fulfill their job expectations. These are problems that can cost a trader their health and wellness in the long run, being lifestyle choices that are very unhealthy. Some traders are lucky to find certain coping strategies, but not all of them become professional enough to maintain their lives outside work.

Defining the Prop Trading Environment

Understanding the question of “what is a prop firm“ is a key part of understanding the work-life balance of a trader. You can think of a prop firm as a place that funds and backs individual traders to use their strategies by letting them use the firm’s capital. Different prop firms adopt different approaches, some are more flexible, while others are very strict about their rules and guidelines. Some firms also provide resources like training and mental health support to aid in work life balance. It is often the culture of the firm that can allow working conditions to be ‘friendlier’ and more balanced than in others.

Finding Balance Through Structure

It becomes crucial for you to work on some structure to have a more appropriate work-life balance. Starting with the personal boundaries that you can set, you may want to make sure that your work does not invade your personal time. Utilizing tight schedules along with determined working hours may also help you create divisions between work and the time to relax. Moving through fixed routines can drastically reduce stress levels, and you will feel less overwhelmed. You may also want to adopt technology that will enable better time management and with the right tools, you could stay organized. Last but not least, make sure your routines are designed to help you work and get adequate sleep for your body and mind.

Is Work Life Balance Really Possible?

Yes, you can achieve an extraordinary work life balance in proprietary trading but there are also some peculiarities that you should pay attention to. For instance, there are traders who establish their own measures and maintain a kind of routine in such a way as not to be overwhelmed by work. Conversely, new traders tend to work more to learn things quickly, causing a lack of personal time. Being disciplined personally really factors in whether you would be able to sustain a balance or not. It all basically comes down to having realistic compromises, where you can pace your work and contribute to your personal life at the same time.

Conclusion

You have seen that in prop trading, working in a balanced fashion is indeed challenging and the chances of achieving any balance depend largely on both individual dedication and the environmental factors in which they work. The work culture at proprietary firms and the traders’ habits largely determine how far most people can go toward a healthy work-life balance. While you can succeed under some strategies and scheduling, you also have to accept some limits on what is possible. Your health and well-being must be given top priority as long as you are given all the things you have to balance in this career.

The post Work-Life Balance in Prop Trading: Myth or Possibility? first appeared on Information Technology Blog.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

People and technology are more interconnected than ever before, and with that, we’ve seen an acute need for cyber security. Data breaches have reached unprecedented levels and seem to have no end in sight. Private business data, employee data, and consumer data are now scattered about the dark web; for sale or liable to be used for unscrupulous and unintended purposes.

In 2022, the global cost of cyber crime reached $8.4 trillion. In 2023, that number is expected to surpass the 11 trillion dollar mark. Adequate cyber security is indispensable for the continued advancement of the global economy and for continuous individual well-being. Focusing on breach prevention is essential.

Because of cyber security’s far-reaching implications, cyber security will be an important growth area across the next decade. If you are a retail investor, that’s why investing in a cyber security fund might make sense for you. While individual stocks can be volatile, investing in a basket of cyber security ETFs could provide stability. Cyber security ETFs represent an efficient and effective way to get investment portfolio exposure to this booming sector.

What is a cyber security ETF?  

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are investment products that track a sector, commodity or index. An ETF consists of an assortment of investments, such as stocks, bonds and commodities. A cyber security ETF will include stocks belonging to companies within the cyber security industry.

Cyber security ETF selection: Insights

In choosing a cyber security ETF, consider the following:

• Consider exploring a fund’s Morningstar Category and actual holdings for a clear understanding of exactly what you’re potentially buying. ETFs that appear similar on the surface may actually be quite different from one another.
• Costs matter. The best index funds and ETFs often retain the lowest expenses. A low expense ratio commonly translates to higher performance levels over time.
• Ask yourself the following three questions ahead of selecting a cyber security ETF: ‘What exposure does this ETF have?’ ‘How effectively does this cyber security ETF deliver this exposure?’ and ‘What does accessing this ETF look like?’
• Investigate whether or not there are extended lengths of time during which the ETF outperforms or underperforms an index. This could provide either positive or negative signals, depending on the root causes of results.
• See if there is a reasonable trading volume.
• Also be sure to review a fund’s track record. Has the ETF succeeded in gathering assets? In the event that an ETF has fewer than $20 million under management, it may eventually be closed by its sponsor.

Cyber security ETF examples

1. First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF. This ETF consists of 35 different cyber security company stocks. The fund retains nearly $5.6 billion in assets under management, and represents the largest pure-play ETF in this segment of the tech sector.

The First Trust cyber security offering is one of the longest-tenured ETFs globally, with an inception date in 2015. Since the fund’s creation, shares of the fund have more than doubled.

2. Global X Cybersecurity ETF. A comparatively new fund, the Global X cyber security ETF was launched in 2019. The fund quickly attracted over $1.1 billion in investor funds, and has shown better performance than the First Trust NASDAQ fund.

3. ETFMG Prime Cyber Security ETF. This ETF has amassed $1.9 billion in assets and consists of 62 different stocks. This translates to less portfolio concentration of top brands in the industry, and a greater focus on smaller companies and international investments.

4. iShares Cybersecurity and Tech ETF. This ETF is composed of 52 different cyber security stocks and includes stocks belonging to other tech companies that participate in the cyber security space. Beyond that, this ETF includes cloud computing firms that are in security-adjacent areas.

In summary

As part of a long-term investment strategy, selecting top cyber security ETFs can be a smart choice. They can serve as the basis of a well-diversified portfolio.

A quick reminder: All investors should perform their own diligence, assess their own risk tolerance, invest responsibly, and ensure that investments align with financial goals. This article is not an endorsement of any specific investment strategies or cyber security ETFs.

Excited about the future of cyber security? Join us at the most exciting and inspiring cyber security industry event of the year, CPX 360.

Lastly, to receive cutting-edge cyber security news, best practices and resources in your inbox each week, please sign up for the CyberTalk.org newsletter. 

The post How to choose a cyber security ETF (2023) appeared first on CyberTalk.