Bitcoin is trading below the $90,000 level once again, as the market continues to drift through a phase defined by indecision, rising caution, and growing fear. After repeated failures to reclaim this psychological threshold, price action has started to reflect a lack of conviction on both sides, with buyers hesitating to step in aggressively and sellers pressing every rebound attempt. While the broader trend has not fully collapsed, the inability to hold key levels is increasing uncertainty around Bitcoin’s next major move.

Top analyst Darkfost argues that on-chain signals are starting to mirror conditions typically seen near the end of prolonged drawdowns. According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s unrealized profits and losses are sliding back toward levels that have historically appeared only at the exit of bear markets, when the market has already absorbed a deep reset in sentiment. This shift suggests that stress is building under the surface, even if price has not yet entered a full capitulation phase.

Since Bitcoin’s last all-time high, Darkfost notes that many late-arriving investors have moved into uncomfortable territory, facing mounting downside pressure as the market cools. As a result, unrealized profits are shrinking, unrealized losses are expanding, and the overall balance continues to deteriorate—an environment that often forces traders into a decisive choice between holding through volatility or exiting under stress.

Decision Point For Bitcoin Investors

Darkfost highlighted a chart based on an adjusted version of NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), designed to capture investor stress more accurately during shifting market regimes. Instead of relying solely on the standard market cap, the model incorporates the realized capitalization of both Short-Term Holders (STHs) and Long-Term Holders (LTHs), then compares that blended realized foundation against Bitcoin’s traditional market cap.

The result is a clearer view of how much profit or loss sits “on paper” across the market, filtered through a more structural lens. To reduce noise and better define trend shifts, the metric is smoothed using an average, producing what Darkfost refers to as aNUPL.

The key takeaway is that Bitcoin is approaching levels that have historically forced investors into a binary decision. When unrealized profits compress and unrealized losses expand to these ranges, holders typically face two outcomes: hold and continue accumulating, or capitulate and lock in losses. That difference in behavior becomes critical because it shapes liquidity, sentiment, and the next directional trend.

If long-term participants absorb the pressure and keep holding, the market can stabilize and rotate back into recovery. But if selling accelerates from stressed cohorts, the decline can deepen into a broader bear phase. This is why tracking realized and unrealized profit dynamics remains essential, especially during periods of uncertainty.

Bitcoin Consolidates After Sharp Weekly Breakdown

Bitcoin is trading around $89,000 on the weekly chart after a steep selloff that pushed the price out of its prior distribution zone. The latest candle reflects heavy downside pressure, with BTC dropping roughly 4.8% on the week and struggling to stabilize near a key pivot that has repeatedly acted as support and resistance throughout the cycle.

After failing to hold above the psychological $90,000 threshold, the market is now trapped in a tight consolidation range, suggesting traders are waiting for confirmation before committing to a larger move.

From a trend standpoint, Bitcoin remains vulnerable as it trades below the blue moving average, which is now acting as overhead resistance near the low-$100K region. The rejection from that dynamic level aligns with the broader structure: BTC topped near the mid-$120K range, then entered a sharp corrective leg that reset momentum into early 2026. While the green moving average continues to slope upward and is approaching the current price zone, the market has not yet shown the strength needed to reclaim its former trend trajectory.

Importantly, the weekly structure is now compressing. If buyers can defend the $88K–$90K region and push BTC back above $92K–$95K, it would signal a recovery attempt toward the moving average band. However, a sustained failure here increases the risk of a deeper retracement toward the low-$80K zone, where prior demand previously emerged.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin continues to struggle as it attempts to reclaim the $90,000 level, with traders facing a market defined by hesitation rather than conviction. After yesterday’s bearish breakdown below $90K, price action has slipped back into indecisive territory, raising fresh questions about whether this pullback is a temporary shakeout or the start of a deeper corrective phase.

According to top analyst Axel Adler, a macro indicator called Trend Pulse helps explain why momentum has faded. Adler notes that since January 19, the market has remained in Bear Mode, with the Bull phase absent for 83 consecutive days. Two separate charts reinforce this shift, showing that both short-term momentum and quarterly performance have turned negative at the same time.

Trend Pulse recently shifted from Neutral to Bear, driven by a double-negative setup: the 14-day return has flipped red, and the SMA30 versus SMA200 trend signal is also negative. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s quarterly return sits at -19%, confirming macro weakness, but without the kind of extreme that often signals a definitive bottom.

Bitcoin Remains Stuck In Bear Mode As Macro Signals Stay Negative

Adler notes that Bitcoin’s last Bull Mode signal was printed on November 2, 2025, when BTC traded near $110,000—roughly 83 days ago. Since then, the market has failed to regain structural strength. Even the Neutral stretch between December 30 and January 18 proved too short and too weak to restore the long-term trend, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable once selling pressure returned.

Adler explains that the first trigger for improvement is the 14-day return moving back above 0, which would shift the regime from Bear to Neutral. However, a full transition back into Bull Mode requires a second condition: SMA30 breaking above SMA200. Given the current divergence between the two averages, that crossover would likely demand 3–4 weeks of sustained upside rather than a short-lived bounce.

The Bitcoin Price Performance chart adds macro context by tracking quarterly return (90D) as a sentiment proxy. Historically, readings above +75% align with euphoria, while values below 0% signal pessimism, and drops below -30% reflect capitulation.

Bitcoin’s quarterly return sits near -19%, negative but far from deep bear-market extremes. Yet the 7-day change (-6.8%) suggests downside momentum is accelerating after the $90K breakdown.

Together, Trend Pulse and quarterly returns point to moderate pessimism without final capitulation, leaving the market at a decision point.

BTC Moving Averages Cap Recovery

Bitcoin is trading near $89,000 after failing to hold above the $90,000 psychological level, reinforcing the market’s current indecision. The chart shows BTC printing a lower-high structure since the early November peak, followed by a sharp selloff that reset price into a wide consolidation range. After bottoming in late November, Bitcoin rebounded but struggled to build sustained momentum, repeatedly stalling on push attempts toward the mid-$90K zone.

From a trend perspective, BTC remains pressured beneath its key moving averages. Price is trading below the green long-term average and the blue mid-term average, both of which are now sloping downward, signaling that broader momentum continues to lean bearish.

The most recent rejection occurred as BTC briefly pushed into the $95K–$97K area, only to roll over and break back down toward the range lows. Meanwhile, the red long-term average remains well above price near the low-$100Ks, highlighting how far BTC would need to recover to reestablish a stronger macro uptrend.

Volume has picked up on selloffs relative to bounces, suggesting that downside moves are still being met with more urgency. For bulls, reclaiming $90K and then holding above $92K–$94K is key. Otherwise, the chart keeps risk open for a deeper pullback toward the mid-$80K region.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is facing a critical test as volatility returns and price action remains unstable around the $90,000 level. Bulls are attempting to defend this psychological zone after recent turbulence, but confidence across the market is still fragile. With uncertainty dominating short-term sentiment, many traders are treating every bounce as a potential trap rather than the start of a confirmed recovery.

According to top analyst Darkfost, the market is still missing a key ingredient for a sustainable bullish continuation: a broad base of investors sitting in profit. He argues that despite Bitcoin’s resilience, there are not yet enough participants in positive territory to build the kind of structural comfort that fuels long-lasting uptrends.

This matters because latent profits are not inherently bearish. In healthy conditions, when most holders are in profit, the market tends to stabilize. Investors feel less pressure to sell, panic fades, and holding becomes easier. That environment often supports stronger trend development and reduces the risk of sharp downside reactions.

Still, Darkfost warns that profit dynamics only help up to a point. When unrealized gains become extreme across the entire market, they can eventually turn into overhead supply, triggering corrective phases.

Bitcoin’s Profit Structure Still Isn’t Bullish Enough

Profit distribution across holders can become a double-edged sword for Bitcoin. When the supply in profit climbs above 95% and approaches 100%, unrealized gains stop being supportive and begin turning into overhead pressure. At those extremes, investors have little incentive to hold through volatility, and even small shocks can trigger profit-taking that fuels corrective phases.

From a structural perspective, Darkfost argues the market needs to reclaim the 75% supply-in-profit threshold to rebuild a healthier foundation. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to sustain bullish conditions when this metric holds above that level, as most participants remain comfortable and less reactive to downside volatility.

Right now, however, the market sits near 71%, after dropping as low as 64%. Darkfost notes that readings this low have often appeared near the early stages of bear markets, even when the headline drawdown looks relatively contained. In this case, the decline of roughly 31% was enough to push a large portion of recent buyers underwater, suggesting many entered late in the move.

The recent rebound briefly lifted supply in profit back to 75%, but it failed to hold. That rejection likely reflects investors using the bounce to exit at breakeven or reduce losses. Going forward, reclaiming 75%–80% would signal stabilization, while further weakness could amplify panic-driven selling.

Volatility Keeps Bulls on the Defensive

Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize near the $90,000 mark after a volatile correction that reshaped the market structure over the past few months. The chart shows BTC printing a major peak around $125,000 before rolling over into a sharp selloff. Accelerating into November and eventually finding a local floor near the mid-$80,000s. That drop marked a decisive break in momentum and triggered a shift toward a lower range, where price has struggled to regain prior support levels.

Since the rebound off the lows, Bitcoin has moved into a consolidation phase, repeatedly testing resistance around $92,000–$95,000 but failing to generate sustained continuation. Each recovery attempt has been met with selling pressure, suggesting that short-term supply is still active near former breakdown zones. The latest bounce back toward $90,000 signals buyers are defending the level. But the structure still looks fragile without a clean breakout.

Volume also reflects uncertainty, with higher activity during selloffs and more muted participation during rebounds. Bulls likely need to hold $88,000–$90,000 and reclaim the $92,000 region with conviction.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is facing renewed volatility after a sharp drop from the $97,000 region to nearly $87,000 in just a few days, shaking market confidence and forcing bulls into defense mode. The pullback comes as geopolitical tension between the United States and the European Union escalated this week, with trade-war rhetoric returning to the spotlight and uncertainty rising around potential retaliatory measures tied to broader disputes, including the situation surrounding Greenland.

Despite the downside pressure, on-chain behavior suggests the market structure is not collapsing, but shifting. Since January, Bitcoin whales have continued to accumulate through corrective phases, absorbing spot supply even as price action weakened.

At the same time, retail investors appear to be stepping back after the drawdown, reducing activity and participation across the market. This divergence highlights a familiar dynamic: short-term fear tends to push smaller traders out, while larger holders use volatility to build exposure at discounted levels.

With price now stabilizing near a major psychological zone, Bitcoin is entering a critical stretch where demand must return to confirm whether this move was a temporary shakeout or the start of deeper weakness.

Whales Keep Accumulating as Bitcoin Fights to Hold $90K

Bitcoin is now attempting to hold above the $90,000 level as volatility remains elevated and traders look for signs of stabilization after the recent swing lower. Price action has become increasingly reactive to macro headlines, and the $90K zone is acting as a key psychological threshold that could determine whether the market consolidates or extends the correction.

In this environment, short-term sentiment can flip quickly, especially as liquidity thins and intraday moves become sharper across both spot and derivatives markets.

However, a CryptoQuant report suggests the underlying structure has not broken down. Even after geopolitical risks intensified and broader risk appetite deteriorated, whale holdings have not declined on a monthly basis.

Instead, large holders have continued increasing exposure, reinforcing the view that the current phase reflects structural accumulation rather than broad distribution. This matters because sustained whale buying during drawdowns typically implies supply is being absorbed at lower levels, reducing the probability of a cascading sell-off driven purely by spot sellers.

In practical terms, the market has shaken, but whale conviction has not. While retail participants often reduce exposure during periods of uncertainty, larger investors tend to operate with longer time horizons, stepping in when volatility forces weak hands out.

If this accumulation trend persists, it can help establish a stronger base below price and create conditions for a more stable recovery once demand improves. For now, Bitcoin’s next move depends on whether $90K holds under continued macro pressure.

Price Action Details: Consolidation Continues

Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize near the $90,000 level after last week’s volatility sent price sharply lower from the prior range above $100,000. The weekly chart shows BTC holding a higher-low structure since the November breakdown, but momentum remains fragile as sellers continue to defend overhead resistance zones. After reclaiming the mid-$80,000s, price pushed back toward $90,000, yet the latest weekly close suggests hesitation and a lack of strong follow-through from buyers.

From a trend perspective, BTC is trading below the short-term moving average, which has rolled over and now acts as dynamic resistance. The rebound has been constructive, but it remains corrective until the price can break and hold above that blue trend line. Meanwhile, the longer-term averages are still rising, reflecting that the broader cycle is not broken, but that the market is transitioning into a slower consolidation phase.

Volume also confirms this uncertainty. Sell-side spikes marked the initial breakdown, while recent recovery candles have not shown the same level of aggressive demand. For bulls, holding the $88,000–$90,000 zone is critical to prevent a deeper pullback. A clean weekly close above $92,000 would improve the short-term outlook and open the door for a stronger recovery leg.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

As the market erases its 2026 gains, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to its lowest level in weeks and is attempting to reclaim a crucial level. Some market observers have warned that a retest of the November lows is likely if volatility continues.

Bitcoin Breaks Down From Key Support

On Wednesday, Bitcoin continued to pullback and hit a three-week low of $87,263. The cryptocurrency had been trading between the $90,000-$96,000 range since its start-of-the-year breakout, reaching a two-month high of $97,924 a week ago.

However, the crypto market has experienced significant volatility over the past few days, fueled by renewed geopolitical tensions. As a result, BTC has retraced 10% in the past week, falling to the mid-zone of its $84,000-$94,000 range.

Amid this performance, trader Wealthmanager noted that the flagship crypto had retraced all its 2026 gains, briefly falling below its yearly opening and POC. He added that this is a critical level to hold in the coming days, as losing this area could send the price back to the $80,000 mark.

Analyst Crypto Jelle highlighted a two-month bear flag structure on BTC’s daily chart, suggesting a high chance of a breakdown. “Lose the current lows again, and bears will be fully back in the driver’s seat,” he asserted.

Similarly, Market observer Lyvo Crypto pointed out the same formation, detailing that Bitcoin broke down from the pattern’s ascending support after the recent price action and lost its two-month uptrend.

To the trader, this signals that “momentum is fully in the bears’ control” and “if it [bearish momentum] sustains, we could see a free fall” that could likely result in a retest of the $78,000 area.

In the case of a breakdown to the November lows, he advised that “from there, we’ll wait for confirmation of a double bottom and look for a relief rally.”

BTC To Repeat Its 2020 Price Action?

Crypto Bullet drew a parallel between BTC’s current price action and its performance in early 2022. The analyst affirmed that the current price action closely mirrors its 2022 fractal, which could signal that a major correction is ahead.

At the time, Bitcoin retraced over 40% from its late 2021 cycle top, followed by a “dead cat bounce” at the start of 2022 and a second major correction toward new lows.

Now, the flagship crypto displays a similar performance as it has retraced 30% from the October highs and is currently attempting to reclaim the lost ground. However, Crypto Bullet noted that there are two significant differences from its 2022 correction.

First, Bitcoin has yet to retest the 50-week and 200-week Moving Averages (MAs). Second, the timing hints that the final breakdown is not due until later in Q1.

“If we match the 2022 fractal’s top and the October 2025 top, we’ll see there’s still about 1 month of PA to make that final leg up and test the 50-Week MA or the 200-Day MA,” he explained.

He concluded that one more pump above the $100,000 is likely, but advised caution as the key supports are being tested.

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $89,890, a 1.2% increase in the daily timeframe.

Bitcoin has slipped below the $90,000 psychological level, and bulls are now trying to defend the $88,000 mark to prevent a deeper correction. After days of heavy volatility across crypto markets, BTC is trading in a fragile zone where short-term sentiment can shift quickly, especially as traders react to macro uncertainty and weakening momentum. With price hovering near key on-chain levels, the next move could define whether this drop becomes a brief shakeout or the start of another leg lower.

Analyst Axel Adler highlighted that Bitcoin is currently testing one of its most important short-term “defense lines.” His Bitcoin Support and Resistance chart compares spot price with the realized cost basis of different short-term holder (STH) cohorts, turning these levels into dynamic support and resistance zones.

According to the data, BTC is trading right around the cost basis of the two freshest buyer groups: STH 0D-1D at roughly $89,800 and STH 1W-1M near $90,000. In other words, investors who entered the market over the past few weeks are sitting at breakeven, making this area highly sensitive.

Above current levels, resistance appears stacked. The 1M-3M cohort sits near $92,500 and is already underwater, meaning it may sell into rebounds, while the aggregated STH realized price around $99,300 remains a major ceiling.

STH MVRV Near a Statistical Extreme

Adler adds that another key metric reinforcing this fragile setup is Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH MVRV), which measures the ratio between Bitcoin’s market price and the cost basis of short-term holders. In simple terms, when STH MVRV drops below 1.0, it signals that this cohort is, on average, holding unrealized losses and is increasingly vulnerable to panic-driven selling.

According to Adler, current STH MVRV stands at 0.897, meaning short-term holders are clearly underwater. More importantly, the metric is approaching the lower boundary of its 155-day statistical range, where the Mean minus one standard deviation sits near 0.875. With only around 2.5% remaining before reaching that statistical minimum, Bitcoin is entering a zone that historically aligns with market exhaustion and local bottom formation.

Adler notes that in many past observations, price stabilization occurred when the metric touched or approached this lower band, as buyers stepped in and selling pressure weakened. However, the market remains at a critical decision point. A clean break below 0.875 would signal extreme oversold conditions and raise the risk of short-term holder capitulation.

Together, both charts frame the same battlefield. The $89.8K–$90K region is the key defense zone for fresh buyers, while $92.5K now acts as resistance. With MVRV pressing toward a statistical extreme, Bitcoin is approaching a make-or-break moment between stabilization and deeper downside.

Bitcoin Bears Pressure Key Support Zones

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing renewed downside pressure after failing to reclaim the $90,000 region, with the latest pullback pushing price toward the $88,600 area. The 3-day chart shows BTC slipping back into the lower part of its recent range, reflecting a fragile market structure where rallies are being sold and buyers remain hesitant to step in aggressively.

From a trend perspective, BTC is trading below its key moving averages, with the faster lines curling downward and acting as dynamic resistance. The most notable barrier sits around the $100,000–$105,000 zone, where the broader trend indicators remain overhead and signal that the market is still in recovery mode rather than a confirmed uptrend. Even the recent bounce attempts have struggled to sustain momentum, highlighting that demand has not returned with enough force to absorb selling pressure.

At the same time, BTC continues to hold above the red long-term moving average, which is still rising and represents the broader bull market foundation. This keeps the larger structure intact, but the price action suggests that bulls must defend the $88,000–$90,000 area to prevent further weakness.

If BTC stabilizes and reclaims $90K, it could open the door for a push back into the mid-$90K range. However, if selling accelerates below $88K, the market risks revisiting deeper support levels from the late-2025 consolidation.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin slipped below the $90,000 level as global markets reacted to rising macroeconomic tension between the United States and the European Union. Investors are closely watching the latest trade headlines, as renewed tariff threats increase uncertainty around global growth, corporate earnings, and inflation dynamics. When friction between major economies escalates, risk appetite typically fades, and crypto tends to feel the impact fast as traders reduce exposure and cut leverage.

According to an analysis by XWIN Research Japan, Bitcoin’s recent weakness fits a broader pattern that has been developing since 2025. The report argues that the Trump administration’s renewed tariff push has acted as a consistent downside pressure for BTC, mainly because tariffs influence multiple pillars of the macro environment at once. Higher tariffs can squeeze company margins, disrupt supply chains, and push inflation expectations higher, which complicates the outlook for interest rates and monetary policy.

In this environment, Bitcoin has continued to behave more like a macro-sensitive risk asset than a defensive hedge. Instead of attracting safe-haven flows, BTC has often moved in sync with equities during trade-driven risk-off waves. As a result, even brief bursts of bullish momentum have struggled to hold when economic uncertainty rises and capital rotates into safer positioning.

Tariff Risk Keeps Bitcoin Tied to Macro Conditions

The XWIN Research Japan report explains that several Bitcoin pullbacks between 2025 and 2026 aligned with periods of rising economic uncertainty driven by tariff hikes and trade frictions. During these episodes, BTC declined alongside equities, reinforcing that the market still treats Bitcoin as a macro-sensitive risk asset rather than a defensive hedge. Instead of decoupling during stress, Bitcoin often reacts like a high-beta instrument when traders rush to reduce volatility in their portfolios.

Economic risk tends to hit Bitcoin quickly because investor behavior adjusts fast. As uncertainty around growth and interest rates increases, capital typically shifts toward short-term protection. In that process, Bitcoin is frequently viewed as a liquid asset that can be sold temporarily to lower portfolio risk, rather than a long-term store of value that benefits from risk-off flows. This dynamic can amplify downside moves even when long-term fundamentals remain intact.

Exchange Netflow provides a supplementary layer of evidence. During correction phases, brief spikes in exchange inflows often appear, consistent with tactical repositioning and short-term profit protection. However, these inflows have not persisted, suggesting the absence of sustained structural selling pressure.

For now, the base scenario remains that tariff-driven economic risk is weighing on Bitcoin. If exchange inflows become sustained and supply-demand conditions weaken further, that assessment would need to be reassessed.

BTC Holds Its Ground After Breaking Below $90K

Bitcoin is trading around $88,800 on the weekly chart after a sharp selloff that briefly pushed price below the $90,000 psychological level. This drop marks a clear shift in momentum, as BTC failed to hold the mid-range structure that supported price action throughout the late-2025 consolidation phase. The weekly candle shows heavy downside pressure, with sellers rejecting attempts to stabilize above $92,000 and forcing a retest of lower demand.

Technically, Bitcoin remains trapped between key moving averages. Price is still below the blue long-term trend line, which has acted as dynamic resistance since the breakdown from the $100,000+ region. At the same time, BTC is holding above the green moving average, suggesting that while the market is weak, longer-term buyers are still defending the broader uptrend structure.

This creates a fragile equilibrium: as long as Bitcoin holds above the current support zone, bulls can attempt to rebuild a base and reclaim $90,000-$92,000. However, if volatility expands and the market loses the green trend line, it would expose BTC to a deeper correction toward the mid-$80,000s, where previous demand briefly stepped in during the prior drawdown.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is trying to hold above the $91,000 level as the market searches for support, but demand remains fragile after weeks of volatility. While the recent decline has pressured sentiment, a CryptoQuant report suggests January is still shaping up as a recovery phase rather than a full breakdown. The analysis points to cautious optimism driven by institutional and whale-level accumulation, while retail participation remains hesitant and risk-averse.

According to Binance-related data, Bitcoin’s spot price action and funding rates have started to diverge in early 2026, signaling a spot-driven market environment. This setup is often viewed as constructive because it implies the latest move is being supported more by real spot buying than by excessive leverage in derivatives. In practice, a spot-led trend tends to reduce the risk of sudden liquidation cascades, which have recently amplified downside moves across the crypto market.

CryptoQuant notes that spot-driven conditions can also create more durable rallies, since they attract organic inflows and allow price to climb without relying on unstable speculative positioning. Historical comparisons to the 2021 and 2024 cycles show similar divergences between spot strength and muted funding rates often preceded extended upside expansions, ranging from 20% to 50%.

Is the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Breaking Down?

The CryptoQuant report raises a bigger question that many investors are now debating: is the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle starting to fade? As the market matures, analysts argue that the old post-halving pattern may no longer apply in the same way. Since 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries have been absorbing a growing share of supply, potentially creating steadier demand and reducing the boom-and-bust dynamics that defined prior cycles.

This argument gained traction in 2025. Despite being a post-halving year, Bitcoin failed to deliver the type of parabolic rally seen in previous cycles, while altcoins also struggled to produce a true “altseason.” That divergence has led some analysts to conclude that halvings are becoming less dominant as a driver, especially now that Bitcoin trades as a $2T+ macro asset.

Instead, market direction may be increasingly shaped by global liquidity conditions, including Federal Reserve policy, M2 growth, geopolitical risk, and large-scale institutional flows. Analysts like Raoul Pal have framed this as a shift toward longer liquidity cycles that could last five years or more, reinforcing the idea that the four-year framework may be outdated.

The report also highlights Binance as a critical reference point. Historically favored by whales, Binance remains a major leading indicator for broader crypto market positioning and flows.

Bitcoin Weekly Chart Signals Fragile Recovery

Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize after weeks of heavy selling pressure, but the weekly structure still reflects a market fighting to reclaim lost ground. BTC is trading near $91,075 after printing a sharp weekly pullback, reinforcing that volatility remains elevated even as price tries to base. The recent rebound from the sub-$85,000 region shows buyers stepping in aggressively, yet the recovery still looks fragile while broader macro uncertainty keeps risk appetite limited across crypto.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is hovering around the zone where previous support has flipped into resistance. Price is currently sitting near the rising 100-week moving average (green), which is acting as a key pivot for bulls. Holding above this level would signal that demand is strong enough to absorb supply during dips. However, the 50-week moving average (blue) has rolled over and remains above price, highlighting that the broader trend has not fully reset bullish momentum.

The 200-week moving average (red) continues to trend higher far below current levels, confirming the long-term uptrend remains intact. For now, the market likely needs a clean weekly reclaim above $95,000 to shift sentiment. Until then, this bounce risks being treated as corrective rather than trend-confirming.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has slipped below the $92,000 level after a sharp decline that began on Sunday, signaling that downside pressure is still shaping market conditions. Despite the drop, bulls are trying to defend current levels and regain control, with many traders watching for a rebound that could restore confidence across the broader crypto market. The move comes at a sensitive moment, as risk appetite remains fragile and short-term volatility continues to shake out leveraged positioning.

Top analyst Darkfost highlighted that the market is now 109 days removed from Bitcoin’s last all-time high, placing the current drawdown into a wider cycle context. In previous major corrections, Bitcoin spent far longer in recovery mode, including 236 days between March 2024 and November, followed by another 154-day correction window between December 2024 and May 2025. Compared to those periods, the current pullback may still be early in its timeline, even if price action already feels aggressive.

What makes this correction stand out is the intensity of the pain across the market. Realized losses have stacked up, capitulation has been more visible, and short-term holders appear increasingly stressed, creating the sense that this decline is heavier than past resets. Even so, history suggests Bitcoin can remain in a choppy recovery phase for months without breaking the broader cycle structure.

Capitulation Builds, But the Cycle May Still Be Intact

Bitcoin’s recent decline has not been a “clean” pullback. Realized losses have stacked up, capitulation has looked aggressive, and short-term holders remain under heavy pressure as the market punishes late entries and weak conviction. Liquidation data has also shown how leverage has amplified the downside, with forced selling accelerating drops that might have otherwise played out more gradually. That backdrop is exactly why the correction feels so violent, even compared to past drawdowns.

However, Darkfost argues this phase still fits within the broader rhythm of Bitcoin’s cycle. His key point is that extended corrections are not unusual, even when they feel unusually painful in real time. From that perspective, the market could easily spend more months digesting losses and rebuilding positioning without signaling a full structural breakdown.

Where this cycle becomes more complex is the macro timing. Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin’s post-bear all-time high and the halving narrative have overlapped with a new variable: ETF-driven demand. That shift changes how drawdowns develop, because deeper pools of institutional capital can absorb supply differently than retail-led rallies. If this institutional trend continues, Bitcoin may be transitioning into a structurally different market regime, with longer consolidations and less predictable “four-year cycle” behavior.

Bitcoin Slips Below Key Averages as Bulls Defend $90K Support

Bitcoin is back under pressure after failing to hold above the $92,000 zone, with the chart showing price sliding toward $91,300 as selling accelerates. The move keeps BTC trapped below major moving averages, reinforcing the idea that this rebound is still fragile and highly reactive to headline-driven volatility. After the January recovery attempt, the rejection near the descending resistance structure highlights that sellers remain active on rallies, limiting bullish follow-through.

Technically, the market continues to trade beneath the 50-day and 100-day trend lines, while the longer-term averages remain overhead, acting as dynamic resistance. This structure suggests BTC is still in a corrective phase rather than a confirmed trend reversal, despite short-term optimism earlier this month. Volume also shows a lack of sustained demand expansion, supporting the view that buyers are defending levels, but not fully regaining control.

The $90,000–$88,000 range now stands out as a critical support area, as it has acted as a base during recent consolidation. A clean breakdown below it could reopen downside risk toward the December lows, while a hold could keep the market building a recovery structure. For bulls, the first step is stabilizing above $92,000 again, then reclaiming the mid-$90,000s to shift momentum back in their favor.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin saw a sharp pullback this week, dropping below the $92,500 mark after failing to hold above $95,500. While the decline reignited bear market fears across crypto, bulls are now trying to stabilize price and defend the current range before selling pressure accelerates further. The move came as markets reacted to renewed macro uncertainty, with tariff headlines out of Europe adding fresh risk-off pressure across global assets.

The latest narrative centers on potential EU retaliatory measures against the United States, including tariffs and trade restrictions aimed at countering political threats tied to NATO tensions. Even without immediate implementation, the headlines were enough to tighten liquidity and trigger fast deleveraging, pushing Bitcoin lower as traders reduced risk exposure.

Despite the drop, analyst MorenoDV argues the market is not collapsing into a cycle end, but instead entering a phase of “risk redistribution.” His view is based on Bitcoin’s Realized Price by UTXO age bands, a framework that helps map where psychological pressure is building across different holder groups. Rather than tracking trend direction, the metric highlights which cohorts are comfortable, which are underwater, and where latent selling pressure could emerge.

In MorenoDV’s view, Bitcoin is rotating stress between cohorts, not breaking structurally.

Realized Price Bands Show Where Bitcoin’s Stress Is Building

Bitcoin’s current drawdown is not creating uniform stress across the market. Instead, pressure is building unevenly across different holder cohorts, based on their realized price levels. In the current setup, spot price sits near $95,583, while the 1w–1m cohort realized price is $89,255 and the 1m–3m cohort is $93,504.

That means newer short-term holders are still in profit, which is an important stabilizing factor. When the most recent buyers are rewarded rather than punished, downside follow-through tends to weaken, because fear does not compound at the margin.

However, the pressure is concentrated in older short-term cohorts. The 3m–6m realized price stands at $114,808, and the 6m–12m cohort sits near $100,748, placing both groups underwater. This suggests Bitcoin has not been aggressively redistributed at lower levels, since a large portion of mid-term holders remains trapped above spot. The market is showing discomfort, but not capitulation, with losses being absorbed through patience rather than forced selling.

If Bitcoin begins reclaiming the 6m–12m realized price, that cohort’s stress could ease quickly. Still, sustainability depends on psychology. Mid-term holders must view this phase as a temporary drawdown, not a structural breakdown. If that belief breaks, selling pressure can appear even stronger.

Bitcoin Slides Below Key Support As Bulls Defend the Range

Bitcoin is under pressure again after failing to hold above the mid-$95,000 zone, with price now trading near $93,000. The chart shows a sharp rejection from the recent local high, followed by a clean move lower that has erased a large portion of the latest rebound. This shift suggests that upside momentum remains fragile, even after the market briefly reclaimed higher levels earlier in January.

From a structure perspective, BTC is now back inside the broader consolidation range that formed after the late November sell-off. The recent bounce looked constructive at first, but the inability to sustain follow-through above resistance has brought sellers back into control. Volume has picked up on the decline, which typically reflects stronger conviction compared to slow pullbacks.

Bitcoin is also trading below its major moving averages on this timeframe, reinforcing the idea that the broader trend remains heavy until bulls reclaim key levels. In the near term, the market must hold support in the low-$92,000 to $93,000 region to avoid another liquidation-driven drop.

If bulls can stabilize price here, BTC may attempt another push toward $95,000. However, repeated rejections increase the risk of a deeper breakdown.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is facing a critical test as bulls try to push price above a key resistance zone, hoping to confirm that the recent rebound has real traction. After weeks of choppy trading and repeated rejections, the market is again pressing into levels that could decide whether BTC transitions back into recovery mode or slips into another leg of consolidation. While momentum has improved in recent sessions, the broader structure still reflects uncertainty, with investors split between breakout expectations and caution after the latest correction.

A report from XWIN Research Japan suggests Bitcoin is not currently in a strong directional trend, but instead remains trapped in a consolidation phase defined by range-bound price action and ongoing structural rebuilding. In this environment, the market is attempting to reset positioning after heavy volatility, while supply and demand continue to balance out near major technical levels.

According to the analysis, the bias remains conditionally bullish, meaning upside continuation is still possible if Bitcoin can secure acceptance above resistance and hold it as support. However, the report also warns that short-term overheating risks persist, especially if leverage builds too quickly or price surges without sustained spot demand behind it. With Bitcoin approaching a pivotal inflection point, the next move could be decisive for broader market sentiment.

Whales Take Control as Retail Activity Stays Muted

The report adds that one of the most important shifts in Bitcoin’s current structure is the change in participant quality. CryptoQuant data suggests retail involvement in both spot and futures markets remains muted, while “Big Whale Orders” continue to appear across spot exchanges and derivatives venues.

This points to a market that is being driven less by impulsive speculation and more by larger players gradually positioning through size and patience, shaping liquidity conditions around key price levels.

This trend is reinforced by the 90-day Spot Taker CVD, which has flipped back into Taker Buy Dominant territory. In simple terms, aggressive market buying is increasing again, yet price has not accelerated sharply.

That combination often implies that sell-side pressure is being absorbed, and available supply is being quietly taken off the table at lower levels. Rather than signaling euphoric demand, the behavior aligns more with structural accumulation and controlled risk-taking.

At the same time, futures markets are heating up. Rising volumes and taker buying in derivatives suggest a more speculative layer is returning, raising the risk of short-term volatility if leverage becomes overcrowded. Still, spot flows indicate whales are absorbing supply, meaning futures-driven shakeouts can occur while underlying accumulation continues. The base case remains retail fading as whales take control, unless leverage distorts the structure again.

Bitcoin Faces Heavy Moving Average Resistance

Bitcoin is holding near $95,500 after a sharp recovery rally that began from the late-November lows. The chart shows BTC rebounding aggressively from the $85,000–$88,000 area, forming a clean sequence of higher lows and higher highs into mid-January. This move suggests that buyers have regained short-term control, but the market is now entering a key resistance zone where rallies have repeatedly stalled since the breakdown in November.

The most immediate level to watch is the cluster between $95,000 and $98,000, where price is now pressing into overhead supply. BTC is also approaching the declining medium-term moving averages, which are acting as dynamic resistance and signaling that the broader trend is still recovering, not fully reversed.

A clean daily close above this zone would strengthen the case for continuation toward the $100,000 psychological level and potentially a retest of the $105,000 area.

However, if Bitcoin fails to hold above $94,000–$95,000, the breakout risks turning into another liquidity sweep followed by consolidation. In that scenario, support sits near $92,000, with a deeper pullback targeting the $88,000–$90,000 range where buyers previously stepped in. For now, the trend is improving, but confirmation depends on reclaiming resistance with sustained volume.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has shown renewed bullish momentum in recent sessions, pushing price back toward the $97,000 level after weeks of persistent selling pressure. For much of the recent consolidation, the market struggled under distribution from short-term participants and cautious positioning from traders who remained uncertain about the broader trend.

That dynamic now appears to be shifting. While price action alone does not confirm a full trend reversal, the latest rebound suggests that downside pressure is easing and that buyers are becoming more willing to absorb available supply.

This improvement in price behavior is supported by on-chain context rather than pure speculation. A quick insight from a CryptoQuant analyst highlights a rare development in market sentiment: the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has dropped to 20, a level that has historically appeared only a handful of times over the past several years. Such readings typically reflect deeply pessimistic conditions, when bullish signals across multiple indicators are scarce.

Paradoxically, these environments often coincide with transitional phases rather than sustained declines. When bearish sentiment becomes widespread and measurable optimism disappears, markets tend to become increasingly sensitive to even modest improvements in demand.

Bitcoin Bull Score Hits A Rare Historical Level

Over the past six years, the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has fallen to levels of 20 or lower only seven times. The market is now experiencing the seventh occurrence, placing the current environment among the rarest sentiment regimes in Bitcoin’s history.

This index aggregates multiple on-chain and market indicators to assess whether conditions favor bullish continuation or reflect broad-based weakness. Readings near 20 indicate that very few bullish signals are active at the same time, highlighting a market dominated by caution rather than optimism.

Historically, such extremes have tended to appear during transitional phases. They often emerge late in corrections, when selling pressure has largely played out, but confidence has not yet returned. This does not guarantee an immediate reversal. However, it does suggest that downside momentum is becoming increasingly fragile, as most participants who wanted to de-risk have already done so.

The timing of this signal is particularly relevant as Bitcoin approaches a critical psychological zone near $100,000. This level represents both a major round-number resistance and a key reference point for short-term and long-term holders.

The coming weeks will be decisive. A sustained push toward and above $100K, accompanied by improving breadth in on-chain indicators, would likely mark a shift away from defensive positioning. Conversely, failure at this level could reinforce consolidation and prolong uncertainty.

Weekly Chart Shows Recovery Attempt Below Resistance

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a market attempting to reassert strength after a prolonged corrective phase, with price now trading around the $96,000–$97,000 zone. This area is technically important, as it aligns with a former consolidation range that acted as support during mid-2025 and later flipped into resistance after the November breakdown. The recent rebound suggests buyers are willing to defend higher lows, but confirmation remains incomplete.

From a trend perspective, Bitcoin is still trading below the declining 50-week moving average, which currently caps upside attempts. This level has acted as dynamic resistance during previous bear-to-neutral transitions. And will be a critical area to reclaim for trend continuation.

Below the price, the 100-week moving average continues to slope upward and has provided structural support during the recent pullbacks. Reinforcing the idea that the broader market structure remains intact despite short-term weakness.

Volume behavior is also notable. The rebound toward $97,000 occurred without a major expansion in volume, revealing that the move may still lack strong conviction. This supports the view that the current advance could be a recovery leg within a larger consolidation rather than the start of an impulse.

If Bitcoin can consolidate above $95,000 and eventually reclaim the 50-week moving average, the probability of a continuation toward the $105,000–$110,000 region increases. Failure to hold this zone would expose the market to renewed downside tests toward the mid-$80,000s. Keeping the broader consolidation unresolved.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has pushed above the $97,000 level for the first time since early November, reviving optimism across the market after weeks of uncertainty. The move comes after a prolonged consolidation phase, during which bearish narratives gained traction, and several analysts openly discussed the possibility of a broader trend reversal.

The recent breakout has challenged those views, at least in the short term, and reopened the debate around whether Bitcoin is attempting to reestablish bullish momentum or simply staging a temporary recovery.

According to analyst Darkfost, the current advance still shows characteristics of a technical rebound rather than a fully confirmed trend shift. Short-term holders (STHs), in particular, remain highly reactive to price movements and market volatility.

After enduring the recent correction, many of these participants appear focused on capital preservation rather than conviction-based positioning. As prices recover toward key levels, some STHs are already using the rebound as an opportunity to lock in profits.

This behavior suggests that confidence among shorter-horizon investors has not yet been fully restored. While the move above $97,000 improves market structure and sentiment, it also introduces nearby supply as profit-taking intensifies.

Short-Term Holders Prioritize Capital Preservation Near Key Levels

The analysis adds that as Bitcoin continues to advance, short-term holders are increasingly shifting their focus toward capital preservation. With the realized price for this cohort currently sitting near $102,000, the recent rebound places the price closer to their average cost basis, a zone that historically encourages defensive behavior rather than aggressive accumulation. Instead of positioning for extended upside, many short-term participants appear inclined to reduce exposure as risk becomes more balanced.

This dynamic was clearly visible on January 6, when Bitcoin revisited the $94,000 level for the first time since mid-November. As the price reached that threshold, short-term holders sent more than 30,000 BTC in realized profit to exchanges, signaling a willingness to exit positions during the rebound.

The pattern intensified further during the latest push higher. As Bitcoin broke above $97,000, on-chain data shows that over 40,000 BTC in profits were transferred to exchanges in a single day.

Such behavior highlights the lingering impact of the recent correction on short-term sentiment. Many STHs remain cautious and appear reluctant to hold through uncertainty after previously experiencing drawdowns.

For confidence to rebuild, Bitcoin likely needs additional upside and sustained price acceptance above key levels. Without a meaningful expansion in unrealized profits, short-term holders may continue to sell into strength, limiting momentum until stronger confirmation reshapes their risk appetite.

Bitcoin Rebounds Toward Key Resistance

Bitcoin’s price action on the 3-day chart shows a constructive rebound, but the broader structure remains mixed. After finding a local bottom in December near the mid-$80,000s, BTC has carved out a series of higher lows, signaling short-term recovery momentum. The recent push toward the $96,000–$97,000 area marks a meaningful advance, placing the price back above the short-term moving average and near a key former support-turned-resistance zone.

However, the larger trend still reflects consolidation rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Price remains below the declining medium-term moving average, which has acted as dynamic resistance since the breakdown in November. This suggests that, while buyers have regained some control, sellers continue to defend higher levels aggressively.

The long-term moving average is still rising and well below the current price, indicating that the broader macro trend has not fully deteriorated.

Volume dynamics also support a cautious interpretation. The rebound has not been accompanied by sustained expansion in volume, implying that conviction remains limited and that the move may still be corrective in nature. From a structural perspective, BTC is attempting to rebuild acceptance above the $92,000–$94,000 range, which previously acted as a key distribution zone.

In the near term, holding above this reclaimed area would strengthen the bullish case and open the door for a retest of the $100,000 region. Failure to consolidate, however, could expose the market to renewed downside pressure toward the lower consolidation range.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has pushed above the $97,000 level, extending a recovery that has brought short-term relief to a market weighed down by weeks of uncertainty. While the move has reignited optimism among some investors, a large share of analysts remains cautious, arguing that the rally could still be a counter-trend bounce within a broader bearish setup for 2026.

Price strength alone, however, does not fully explain the current move. According to a CryptoQuant analyst, Bitcoin has shown notable resilience after decisively breaking the $94,200 resistance zone and accelerating toward the $97,500 area, with on-chain data offering important context behind the advance.

One of the key indicators supporting this move is Value Days Destroyed (VDD), a metric that sheds light on long-term holder behavior. VDD measures how long coins remained inactive before being spent, weighted by transaction size. In simple terms, it helps distinguish whether price movements are driven by experienced holders distributing old coins or by newer coins changing hands.

As of January 2026, VDD is hovering around 0.53, a historically low reading. This implies that the coins currently moving on the network are relatively young, while older holdings remain largely dormant. Such behavior suggests that long-term holders are not rushing to sell into strength, lending structural support to the recent breakout—even as the broader market debates whether this surge marks renewed strength or merely a temporary reprieve.

Long-Term Holders Reinforce Bitcoin’s Breakout Quality

The report by Carmelo Alemán, Verified On-Chain Analyst at CryptoQuant, highlights an important dynamic behind Bitcoin’s recent move above key resistance levels. Despite the sharp price appreciation, long-term holders remain largely inactive. In practical terms, this means that investors who have held Bitcoin through multiple cycles are not using the current strength as an opportunity to exit positions. Their restraint significantly improves the quality of the rally.

Historically, this behavior has mattered. When Bitcoin advances while Value Days Destroyed (VDD) stays low, it signals that older coins are not entering circulation. Demand is being met primarily by younger supply, allowing price to rise without triggering structural selling pressure from the most experienced market participants. These phases have often aligned with healthier expansion periods rather than short-lived speculative spikes.

The current breakout fits that historical pattern. Bitcoin’s move through resistance has not been accompanied by a surge in long-dormant coins being spent. Instead, long-term capital appears comfortable holding through higher prices, suggesting confidence in the broader market structure rather than urgency to lock in gains.

This supportive backdrop remains conditional. As long as VDD stays suppressed, the rally retains a strong foundation. However, a sustained increase in the indicator would change the narrative, signaling that long-term holders are beginning to distribute and potentially marking a shift toward heavier selling pressure.

Price Tests Key Resistance After December Rebound

Bitcoin price is trying to stabilize after a sharp rebound from the December lows, with the chart showing BTC reclaiming the $96,000–$97,000 zone. This level coincides with a confluence of technical factors, making it a critical area for short-term direction. The recent recovery followed a strong sell-off from the November highs. Where the price broke below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages and briefly capitulated toward the low $80,000s.

From a structure perspective, BTC is now printing higher lows on the daily timeframe, signaling a potential short-term trend reversal. Price has also reclaimed the 50-day moving average, which often acts as dynamic resistance during downtrends. Holding above this level would be constructive, as it suggests buyers are regaining control after weeks of distribution and volatility.

However, overhead resistance remains significant. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages, currently clustered between $100,000 and $108,000, represent a heavy supply zone where previous breakdowns occurred. A failure to push higher could lead to renewed consolidation or a pullback toward the $92,000–$94,000 support range.

Volume has increased during the rebound, showing genuine participation rather than a low-liquidity bounce. Still, the broader trend remains unclear. For bullish momentum, Bitcoin needs acceptance above $97,000 and a clear attempt toward the $100,000 psychological level. Otherwise, the move risks being a technical rebound within a larger corrective phase.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is pushing above the $95,000 level as selling pressure across the market continues to ease, offering a renewed sense of short-term stability after weeks of choppy consolidation. Following a volatile end to last year, price action has gradually improved, with buyers regaining control and forcing Bitcoin back into a range that had previously acted as resistance. While skepticism remains high and many analysts continue to warn of a broader corrective phase, recent derivatives and positioning data suggest that market behavior may be shifting beneath the surface.

According to an analysis shared by Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s Positioning Index SMA-30d has climbed to 3.5, marking the first sustained breakout above the 3.0 level since October 6, 2025. That previous breakout occurred during the rally that ultimately carried BTC toward the $125,000 peak, making the current move particularly notable from a historical perspective.

The positioning index reflects aggregated futures market dynamics, including open interest, funding behavior, and long-short activity, and is often used to identify regime changes in trader sentiment.

This renewed strength in positioning does not guarantee immediate upside continuation, but it does indicate that futures traders are once again willing to take directional exposure after months of defensive positioning. As Bitcoin holds above $95K, the coming sessions will be critical in determining whether this move develops into a broader trend or remains a temporary relief rally.

Futures Positioning Signals a Shift Toward a Bullish Regime

According to Axel Adler Jr., the recent breakout of the Positioning Index SMA-30d above the 3.0 level marks an important local shift in Bitcoin’s futures market structure. After spending nearly three months oscillating within the 0 ± 2 range, this move signals that traders are transitioning from neutral or defensive positioning into a more directional stance.

Adler notes that confirmation now depends on persistence rather than speed. The key continuation trigger is the SMA holding above the 2.0 level for at least one week, which would validate that the shift is not a short-lived reaction.

This view is reinforced by developments in the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index. While sentiment briefly peaked at 93.15% when BTC traded near $95,061, it has since cooled to roughly 70%. Importantly, this pullback has occurred without a breakdown in price structure. The index remains well above the neutral 50% threshold and above its 30-day average near 62.9%, indicating that bullish conditions still dominate the futures market.

Adler interprets the roughly 23-percentage-point decline in sentiment as a healthy release of short-term overheating rather than a trend reversal. Historically, such resets often strengthen trend durability. Risk emerges if sentiment falls below 50% alongside a price drop under $92,000. Conversely, holding sentiment above 60% during short consolidation phases would support further upside continuation.

Bitcoin Price Action Details

Bitcoin price action on the daily chart shows a clear attempt to regain control after a prolonged consolidation phase. Following the sharp November sell-off that pushed BTC into the low $80K region, price has gradually formed a higher-low structure, signaling stabilization rather than continued capitulation. The recent push above $95,000 marks the highest daily close since mid-November and places Bitcoin back above its short-term moving average, a level that had capped upside throughout December.

However, the broader trend remains mixed. The 50-day moving average is still sloping downward and sits above the current price, acting as near-term dynamic resistance. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average continues to trend higher well below price, confirming that the broader market structure remains intact despite recent volatility. This positioning reflects a market transitioning from corrective pressure into a potential recovery phase, rather than a clean trend reversal.

The recent advance toward $95K occurred without a significant volume spike, suggesting reduced selling pressure rather than aggressive new demand. This is consistent with a relief-driven move fueled by short covering and position rebalancing.

For bulls, holding above the $93K–$95K range is critical to maintain momentum and build a base for continuation. Failure to consolidate above this zone would increase the risk of renewed range-bound trading or a pullback toward the $90K support area.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has pushed above the $95,000 level for the first time since mid-November, reigniting debate across the market. For some analysts, this move represents a constructive breakout that confirms underlying strength after weeks of consolidation. For others, the rally is viewed with caution, framed as a classic relief move occurring within a broader corrective or bearish structure. With sentiment split and volatility compressed, the market is once again searching for confirmation rather than direction alone.

Adding an important layer to this discussion, an analysis by Darkfost highlights a notable shift beneath the surface: OG Bitcoin activity has dropped sharply. OGs—holders whose coins have remained dormant for several years—have historically played a key role during major cycle transitions, often distributing aggressively near macro tops. During this cycle, their activity surged earlier, coinciding with strong institutional demand and elevated prices. However, recent data shows that this selling pressure has slowed significantly.

This decline in OG spending suggests that long-dormant holders are no longer actively distributing into strength, reducing a major source of structural sell pressure. While this does not guarantee immediate upside continuation, it changes the risk profile of the current move. With fewer legacy holders selling, price action above $95K is now being shaped more by marginal demand and derivatives positioning than by long-term distribution, making the next phase especially critical to monitor.

OG Selling Pressure Fades as Long-Dormant Coins Go Quiet

Darkfost’s analysis uses UTXO behavior to understand how long-term holders are acting beneath the surface. UTXOs, which track when and how previously unspent Bitcoin is moved, provide a reliable way to identify activity from OG holders—coins that have remained dormant for several years. When these coins move, it usually signals intentional distribution rather than short-term speculation.

Earlier in this cycle, OG activity was unusually elevated. Long-held coins were spent at levels well above those seen in the previous cycle, coinciding with a favorable environment for distribution. Institutional inflows, spot ETFs, and even government-linked demand created deep liquidity conditions that allowed legacy holders to sell without destabilizing the price. That window appears to be closing.

Recent data shows a clear shift. Spikes in OG spending during local price peaks have become smaller and less frequent. The rolling average of spent older outputs has fallen materially from prior highs, indicating that the heaviest phase of long-term distribution is likely behind us. This does not imply that OGs have turned aggressively bullish, but it does suggest reduced urgency to sell.

From a market structure perspective, declining OG selling pressure removes a major overhead supply source. With fewer long-dormant coins entering circulation, price action becomes increasingly dependent on short-term demand dynamics and derivatives positioning. This transition often precedes either consolidation or trend continuation, making OG inactivity a quietly constructive signal rather than an outright bullish trigger.

Bitcoin Tests Key Resistance After Short-Term Breakout

Bitcoin has pushed back above the $95,000 level after weeks of consolidation, marking a notable short-term breakout. On this daily chart, price has reclaimed the descending short-term moving average and is now testing a former resistance zone that previously acted as support during September and October. This area around $95K–$96K is technically significant, as it coincides with prior range lows and a visible supply cluster.

The rebound follows a sharp corrective phase in November, where BTC printed a local bottom near the mid-$80,000 region. Since then, price action has formed a series of higher lows, suggesting an improving short-term structure. Volume remains moderate, indicating that this move is not driven by aggressive speculation, but rather by steady spot demand and short covering.

However, Bitcoin still trades below its longer-term moving averages, which continue to slope downward. This implies that, despite the recent strength, the broader trend has not yet fully flipped bullish. A sustained hold above $95,000 would take it into the $98,000–$100,000 zone. A level where stronger resistance and prior breakdown zones sit.

Failure to consolidate above current levels could result in another retest of the $90,000–$92,000 support range. The chart reflects a transition phase: momentum is improving, but confirmation will depend on follow-through and acceptance above this critical resistance area.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com v

Bitcoin has started the year on firmer footing, recovering from late-2025 weakness and pushing back toward the $92,000 level. Price action has improved, and short-term momentum has turned constructive, but conviction remains fragile. Despite the rebound, Bitcoin continues to trade within a broader consolidation range that has capped upside since late November.

As a result, analysts remain divided. Some see the recent strength as the early phase of a trend reversal, while others warn that the market may need more time to absorb supply before any sustained breakout can develop.

Adding nuance to this debate, a recent report from CryptoQuant highlights a critical inflection point tied to short-term holder behavior. According to the analysis, Bitcoin’s short-term holders—typically the most reactive cohort—are close to flipping back into profit.

The key level sits around $92.2K. A decisive break above this threshold would place the average short-term holder back in positive territory, easing psychological pressure and reducing the incentive to sell into minor rallies.

Short-Term Holders Near a Psychological Inflection Point

The same CryptoQuant report emphasizes that the $92,000–$92,200 zone is more than a simple technical level—it represents a psychological threshold for short-term holders (STHs). A sustained move above this area would place the average STH back into profit, easing stress among recent buyers who have been underwater for weeks.

When this cohort returns to profit, selling pressure typically diminishes, as fear-driven exits give way to a greater willingness to hold or even add exposure.

Historically, this transition has mattered. Past market data shows that when Bitcoin price crosses above the short-term holder realized price—a configuration often described as a “golden cross” between spot price and STH cost basis—market structure tends to improve.

In several prior cycles, such flips marked the start of renewed upside momentum, as short-term participants shifted from defensive behavior to supportive demand.

That said, context remains important. A profit flip does not guarantee immediate continuation higher, but it does change incentives. Instead of selling into rallies to recover losses, short-term holders are more likely to buy dips or hold through volatility, reinforcing bid-side depth.

In practical terms, reclaiming and holding above $92K would signal that recent supply has been absorbed and that marginal demand is strengthening. If confirmed with follow-through, this psychological reset could act as fuel for a broader trend extension. However, failure to maintain this level would risk resetting pressure on the same cohort, keeping Bitcoin locked in consolidation rather than trend mode.

Bitcoin Price Consolidates Below Key Resistance as Volatility Builds

Bitcoin price action on this chart reflects a market attempting to stabilize after a sharp correction from the October highs near $125,000. Following that decline, BTC found strong demand in the $85,000–$88,000 region, where buyers repeatedly defended price and formed a higher low structure. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating in a relatively tight range, gradually pushing back toward the $92,000 area.

From a trend perspective, price is currently trading above the 200-day moving average (red), which continues to slope upward and provides a key layer of long-term support. This suggests that, despite recent weakness, the broader macro trend remains intact.

However, BTC is still trading below the 100-day and 50-day moving averages (green and blue), both of which are flattening and acting as dynamic resistance. This configuration explains the hesitation around $92,000–$94,000, where multiple technical factors converge.

Volume has declined compared to the sell-off phase, signaling reduced conviction from both buyers and sellers. This typically characterizes consolidation phases rather than impulsive trends. The recent series of higher lows since December indicates improving short-term structure, but confirmation is still lacking.

For bullish continuation, Bitcoin would need a decisive daily and weekly close above the $92,000–$94,000 resistance zone, reclaiming the mid-term moving averages. Failure to do so could keep price range-bound or expose BTC to another test of support near $88,000. Overall, the chart points to compression and indecision, with a larger directional move likely once this range resolves.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has entered a fresh bout of volatility after a rare and highly charged response from Jerome Powell, following reports that federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation related to his conduct as Federal Reserve Chair. In a direct and unusually pointed statement, Powell said: “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Fed setting rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”

The market reaction was immediate. Bitcoin dropped from the $92,500 area to nearly $90,500, reflecting heightened uncertainty as traders reassessed political and macro risks. The move interrupted an otherwise stable consolidation phase and reintroduced volatility at a moment when BTC was attempting to build support above the $90,000 level.

What makes this episode particularly notable is the shift in Powell’s public stance. Over the past 12 months, despite repeated criticism from President Trump, Powell consistently declined to engage, often responding with variations of “I have no response or comment.” That long-standing silence broke yesterday.

As markets digest the implications, Bitcoin now finds itself at the intersection of macro policy, political pressure, and investor psychology. The next reaction—both from policymakers and from risk assets—could prove decisive for short-term price direction.

Retail Fear Persists as Short-Term Holders Capitulate Within the Uptrend

A recent CryptoQuant analysis adds another layer to the current political and macro-driven volatility, revealing that retail investors remain fearful of short-term price swings even as Bitcoin maintains a broader upward structure. The Short-Term Holder SOPR (STH SOPR) highlights a recurring behavioral pattern that tends to appear during corrective phases within a larger bull trend.

Despite Bitcoin printing higher highs and higher lows throughout 2024 and 2025, short-term investors have been consistently realizing losses. Toward the end of last year, retail sentiment deteriorated sharply, with the STH SOPR dropping to around 0.98. Levels last seen in November 2022, when Bitcoin was trading near $16,000. While the indicator has not fully entered extreme capitulation territory below 0.98, it has remained under the neutral 1.00 level for more than 70 days, signaling sustained selling at a loss.

This divergence is critical when STH SOPR remains below 1.00, coinciding with extended consolidations or corrective phases, driven by heightened pressure since Bitcoin broke above its previous all-time high. Historically, periods where STH SOPR stays below 1.00 coincide with extended consolidation or corrective phases, driven by elevated fear and realized losses.

However, during the current uptrend, these episodes have repeatedly marked favorable accumulation zones. The mismatch between rising prices and capitulating retail behavior often reflects opportunity rather than weakness. This highlights Bitcoin’s underlying structural strength despite short-term volatility.

Bitcoin Consolidates Below Key Resistance as Volatility Compresses

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows the market in a consolidation phase following a sharp correction from the October highs near $120,000. After losing the $100,000 psychological level, BTC found demand in the low-$80,000s before rebounding toward the $90,000–$94,000 range, where price is currently stalling. This zone has clearly become a short-term equilibrium. With buyers defending higher lows but struggling to generate enough momentum for a decisive breakout.

From a trend perspective, Bitcoin remains below the 50-week moving average, which is now acting as dynamic resistance around the mid-$90,000 area. In contrast, the 100-week moving average continues to slope upward well below the price. Reinforcing the idea that the broader macro trend remains intact despite recent weakness. The 200-week moving average, far lower, continues to define the long-term bull market structure.

Volume has compressed significantly during this consolidation, suggesting reduced participation and indecision. This typically precedes a volatility expansion rather than a continuation of slow, sideways trading.

As long as BTC holds above the rising 100-week moving average, downside appears structurally limited. Failure to reclaim the $94,000 resistance zone would keep the market vulnerable to another leg of consolidation before a sustainable trend resumes.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com