Bitcoin is facing a critical test as bulls try to push price above a key resistance zone, hoping to confirm that the recent rebound has real traction. After weeks of choppy trading and repeated rejections, the market is again pressing into levels that could decide whether BTC transitions back into recovery mode or slips into another leg of consolidation. While momentum has improved in recent sessions, the broader structure still reflects uncertainty, with investors split between breakout expectations and caution after the latest correction.

A report from XWIN Research Japan suggests Bitcoin is not currently in a strong directional trend, but instead remains trapped in a consolidation phase defined by range-bound price action and ongoing structural rebuilding. In this environment, the market is attempting to reset positioning after heavy volatility, while supply and demand continue to balance out near major technical levels.

According to the analysis, the bias remains conditionally bullish, meaning upside continuation is still possible if Bitcoin can secure acceptance above resistance and hold it as support. However, the report also warns that short-term overheating risks persist, especially if leverage builds too quickly or price surges without sustained spot demand behind it. With Bitcoin approaching a pivotal inflection point, the next move could be decisive for broader market sentiment.

Whales Take Control as Retail Activity Stays Muted

The report adds that one of the most important shifts in Bitcoin’s current structure is the change in participant quality. CryptoQuant data suggests retail involvement in both spot and futures markets remains muted, while “Big Whale Orders” continue to appear across spot exchanges and derivatives venues.

This points to a market that is being driven less by impulsive speculation and more by larger players gradually positioning through size and patience, shaping liquidity conditions around key price levels.

This trend is reinforced by the 90-day Spot Taker CVD, which has flipped back into Taker Buy Dominant territory. In simple terms, aggressive market buying is increasing again, yet price has not accelerated sharply.

That combination often implies that sell-side pressure is being absorbed, and available supply is being quietly taken off the table at lower levels. Rather than signaling euphoric demand, the behavior aligns more with structural accumulation and controlled risk-taking.

At the same time, futures markets are heating up. Rising volumes and taker buying in derivatives suggest a more speculative layer is returning, raising the risk of short-term volatility if leverage becomes overcrowded. Still, spot flows indicate whales are absorbing supply, meaning futures-driven shakeouts can occur while underlying accumulation continues. The base case remains retail fading as whales take control, unless leverage distorts the structure again.

Bitcoin Faces Heavy Moving Average Resistance

Bitcoin is holding near $95,500 after a sharp recovery rally that began from the late-November lows. The chart shows BTC rebounding aggressively from the $85,000–$88,000 area, forming a clean sequence of higher lows and higher highs into mid-January. This move suggests that buyers have regained short-term control, but the market is now entering a key resistance zone where rallies have repeatedly stalled since the breakdown in November.

The most immediate level to watch is the cluster between $95,000 and $98,000, where price is now pressing into overhead supply. BTC is also approaching the declining medium-term moving averages, which are acting as dynamic resistance and signaling that the broader trend is still recovering, not fully reversed.

A clean daily close above this zone would strengthen the case for continuation toward the $100,000 psychological level and potentially a retest of the $105,000 area.

However, if Bitcoin fails to hold above $94,000–$95,000, the breakout risks turning into another liquidity sweep followed by consolidation. In that scenario, support sits near $92,000, with a deeper pullback targeting the $88,000–$90,000 range where buyers previously stepped in. For now, the trend is improving, but confirmation depends on reclaiming resistance with sustained volume.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is pushing above the $95,000 level as selling pressure across the market continues to ease, offering a renewed sense of short-term stability after weeks of choppy consolidation. Following a volatile end to last year, price action has gradually improved, with buyers regaining control and forcing Bitcoin back into a range that had previously acted as resistance. While skepticism remains high and many analysts continue to warn of a broader corrective phase, recent derivatives and positioning data suggest that market behavior may be shifting beneath the surface.

According to an analysis shared by Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s Positioning Index SMA-30d has climbed to 3.5, marking the first sustained breakout above the 3.0 level since October 6, 2025. That previous breakout occurred during the rally that ultimately carried BTC toward the $125,000 peak, making the current move particularly notable from a historical perspective.

The positioning index reflects aggregated futures market dynamics, including open interest, funding behavior, and long-short activity, and is often used to identify regime changes in trader sentiment.

This renewed strength in positioning does not guarantee immediate upside continuation, but it does indicate that futures traders are once again willing to take directional exposure after months of defensive positioning. As Bitcoin holds above $95K, the coming sessions will be critical in determining whether this move develops into a broader trend or remains a temporary relief rally.

Futures Positioning Signals a Shift Toward a Bullish Regime

According to Axel Adler Jr., the recent breakout of the Positioning Index SMA-30d above the 3.0 level marks an important local shift in Bitcoin’s futures market structure. After spending nearly three months oscillating within the 0 ± 2 range, this move signals that traders are transitioning from neutral or defensive positioning into a more directional stance.

Adler notes that confirmation now depends on persistence rather than speed. The key continuation trigger is the SMA holding above the 2.0 level for at least one week, which would validate that the shift is not a short-lived reaction.

This view is reinforced by developments in the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index. While sentiment briefly peaked at 93.15% when BTC traded near $95,061, it has since cooled to roughly 70%. Importantly, this pullback has occurred without a breakdown in price structure. The index remains well above the neutral 50% threshold and above its 30-day average near 62.9%, indicating that bullish conditions still dominate the futures market.

Adler interprets the roughly 23-percentage-point decline in sentiment as a healthy release of short-term overheating rather than a trend reversal. Historically, such resets often strengthen trend durability. Risk emerges if sentiment falls below 50% alongside a price drop under $92,000. Conversely, holding sentiment above 60% during short consolidation phases would support further upside continuation.

Bitcoin Price Action Details

Bitcoin price action on the daily chart shows a clear attempt to regain control after a prolonged consolidation phase. Following the sharp November sell-off that pushed BTC into the low $80K region, price has gradually formed a higher-low structure, signaling stabilization rather than continued capitulation. The recent push above $95,000 marks the highest daily close since mid-November and places Bitcoin back above its short-term moving average, a level that had capped upside throughout December.

However, the broader trend remains mixed. The 50-day moving average is still sloping downward and sits above the current price, acting as near-term dynamic resistance. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average continues to trend higher well below price, confirming that the broader market structure remains intact despite recent volatility. This positioning reflects a market transitioning from corrective pressure into a potential recovery phase, rather than a clean trend reversal.

The recent advance toward $95K occurred without a significant volume spike, suggesting reduced selling pressure rather than aggressive new demand. This is consistent with a relief-driven move fueled by short covering and position rebalancing.

For bulls, holding above the $93K–$95K range is critical to maintain momentum and build a base for continuation. Failure to consolidate above this zone would increase the risk of renewed range-bound trading or a pullback toward the $90K support area.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com