Bitcoin is currently holding steady, trading water around the critical $90,000 level as the market enters a period of high compression. With ETF inflows slowing down, the price lacks the momentum to break through overhead resistance. The highly anticipated FOMC meeting is expected to provide the necessary catalyst to end the current consolidation and dictate Bitcoin’s next major directional move.

BTC Compression Intensifies: Scaling Back Intraday Scalps

According to a recent update from Lennaert Snyder, Bitcoin continues to tighten within a compression phase. The market has been trading in an increasingly narrow range, signaling that a larger move is approaching. Snyder noted that the scalp long and short setups from his previous analysis played out well.

He explained that as compression increases, the reward-to-risk ratio naturally declines. While the trades were profitable, they still fell into the category of “C-setups,” meaning they lacked the cleaner momentum and clarity found at range boundaries. Snyder emphasized that the best trading opportunities always emerge at the edges of a range.

With the current setup, his focus remains on the key resistance area around $94,000. A breakout above that level could offer long opportunities, while a failure there may open the door for shorts. On the downside, if price sweeps the lows and returns to the $87,400 support region, long entries are likely following signs of reversal.

However, he added that if Bitcoin fails to show strength during this phase, he is not eager to take new long positions. A deeper retest of the $83,200 zone could become the next area of interest, though he expects any move toward that level to come with a liquidity sweep. 

Snyder also mentioned that he remains in shorts as a hedge, with scalp shorts still acceptable for traders who understand the increased risk at this stage. He concluded by highlighting the importance of the upcoming FOMC meeting, noting that the market is likely to stay muted until then.

Upcoming FOMC Meeting Dictates Bitcoin’s Next Major Move

Analyst Ted, in a recent update, revealed that BTC is currently in a state of consolidation around the $90,000 level. This tight range-bound movement suggests that while selling pressure is not dominant, buyers are also struggling to push the price higher aggressively.

Ted attributed the market’s current stagnation and its inability to break above major resistance levels to a slowdown in institutional investment. Specifically, he noted that recent ETF inflows have slowed down, removing a major source of directional buying pressure that typically drives breakouts.

Furthermore, the analyst highlighted that a critical macroeconomic event is pending: the FOMC meeting is scheduled for tomorrow, and the market’s next significant directional move will be heavily dependent on the outcome.

Bitcoin started the week attempting to reclaim the $92,000 level, a move that hints at early signs of recovery after weeks of volatility and uncertainty. This renewed strength arrives at a critical moment for global markets, as investors turn their attention to one event: the upcoming FOMC meeting. According to a new CryptoQuant report by XWIN Research Japan, the central question is whether the Federal Reserve will finally begin cutting interest rates—a decision that could reshape market expectations heading into 2026.

Historical data provides an important context. During the last two rate-cut announcements on September 17 and October 29, Bitcoin followed a strikingly similar pattern. Prices climbed in the days leading up to each meeting, reflecting optimism and speculation.

Immediately after the announcements, the market experienced a brief bounce, only to fall sharply soon after. This behavior highlights a common reaction in macro-driven markets: although rate cuts are usually seen as bullish, they often fuel a “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic in the short term as traders lock in profits.

With Bitcoin hovering below major resistance and macro uncertainty rising again, the coming days may determine whether this attempted recovery evolves into momentum—or fades into another corrective swing.

Market Positioning Meets Macro Reality

Rather than simply repeating past rate-cut reactions, the current setup requires placing Bitcoin’s behavior in the broader macroeconomic landscape—a landscape that looks very different from previous cycles. While XWIN Research highlights the historical “up first, down later” pattern around FOMC cuts, the real story lies in how today’s liquidity conditions interact with on-chain signals.

Stablecoin exchange reserves now reflect not just crypto sentiment but the macro backdrop. With the US nearing the end of quantitative tightening and global liquidity subtly improving, rising stablecoin reserves would confirm that investors are preparing to deploy capital into risk assets.

If reserves remain flat or decline, it may indicate hesitation tied to uncertainty over inflation persistence or concerns about policy missteps.

Funding rates, meanwhile, must be interpreted through the lens of a market recalibrating after a 36% correction while still operating in a high-rate environment. Excessive long leverage during a macro turning point—especially if the Fed cuts earlier than expected—creates the perfect setup for volatility spikes.

Neutral or mildly positive funding, however, would suggest traders are not overextended, allowing Bitcoin to absorb macro news more smoothly.

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s reaction to the FOMC will depend on the interplay between improving macro liquidity conditions and the internal positioning of the market. This cycle’s environment is more complex—and potentially more supportive—than prior rate-cut events, making risk-managed positioning more crucial than prediction.

Weekly Chart Shows Stabilization But Trend Still Vulnerable

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows the market attempting to stabilize after a sharp multi-week correction, with price hovering around $91,800. The current candle is printing a modest rebound, signaling that buyers are stepping in near the green 100-week moving average, a level that has acted as a cyclical support zone in past downturns. This reaction suggests that long-term participants are defending the structure, even as momentum remains weak.

Despite the bounce, BTC continues to trade well below the 50-week moving average, which has curled downward—evidence that medium-term trend pressure still leans bearish. The breakdown from the $110K–$100K region triggered a decisive shift in sentiment, and the latest consolidation under $95K reflects a market still searching for direction rather than forming a clear recovery trend.

Volume also tells an important story: selling spikes in recent weeks have been met with noticeably softer buy-side volume, indicating that bulls are present but not yet aggressive. Until a sustained surge in demand appears, rallies near the 50-week MA are likely to face resistance.

If Bitcoin holds the 100-week MA and forms higher weekly lows, a recovery phase could build. Failure to maintain this zone, however, would expose deeper downside levels and confirm a broader trend reversal.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin market experienced a moderate price rebound over the past week, following a prolonged period of price correction that began in early October. The flagship cryptocurrency is now trading above $90,000, with hopes building for a potential push back toward its all-time high of $126,100.

Notably, popular market analyst KillaXBT has flagged a key price zone that could serve as the next target in this relieving market recovery.

Bitcoin Headed To $95k-$96k, But Price Pullback May Occur First – Analyst

In an X post on November 28, KillaXBT shares some compelling insights on Bitcoin’s price condition, highlighting both bullish and bearish tendencies. Following the asset’s gain of 7.22% in the past week, the analyst predicts that market bulls are likely to drive prices to around $95,000-$96,000, which contains strong, heavy illiquidity pockets and several liquidation clusters. 

For context, these zones are attractive to price because they contain large concentrations of resting orders, making them high-value liquidity targets. Liquidation clusters, in particular, hold groups of leveraged positions that trigger forced buying or selling once the price reaches them, injecting fresh liquidity into the market.

However, KillaXBT cautions that this upside move may not occur immediately, noting that the market often delays sweeping major liquidity zones ahead of key macro events. With the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting expected to deliver clarity on potential rate cuts, traders may see continued liquidity building below the yearly open in the near term.

According to the analyst, these upper liquidation levels are still likely to be cleared, but the timing could align more closely with next month’s policy announcement rather than the current market cycle.

The analyst outlines a potential scenario in which Bitcoin experiences a minor pullback to around $93,000 before retesting $89,200. From there, the asset could move toward the $95,000–$96,000 target, in line with expectations for a potential FOMC rate adjustment.

However, KillaXBT also highlights the possibility that Bitcoin may reach these key liquidation zones before the FOMC meeting. In such a scenario, the market could see a rapid surge to $96,000, followed by a sharp drop to around $89,200 due to potential liquidations, before eventually returning to these upper liquidity zones.

Following this analysis, KillaXBT is opting for a short position, which he intends to reassess in relation to market trends as the FOMC approaches. Interestingly, the analyst believes the real short-term opportunity only comes after the FOMC’s announcement.

Bitcoin Price Overview

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $90,490, reflecting a slight 0.64% decline in the past day.