On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out how the current Bitcoin market is reminiscent to the structure from the first quarter of 2022.

Bitcoin Dynamics Are Currently Looking Similar To Early 2022 Bear Market

In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has discussed about how the broader Bitcoin market structure is starting to resemble Q1 2022. First, the analytics firm has shared the data of its Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model, highlighting price levels that correspond to a certain degree of investor profitability.

In the chart, three supply quantiles are listed: 0.75, 0.85, and 0.95. If Bitcoin trades at the first of these levels, 75% of the supply will be in profit. Similarly, the latter two correspond to 85% and 95% profitability, respectively.

It’s visible in the graph that Bitcoin has recently fallen below all three of these levels, indicating more than 25% of the cryptocurrency’s supply is now underwater. “This creates a fragile balance between the risk of top-buyer capitulation and the potential for seller exhaustion to form a bottom,” explained Glassnode.

BTC similarly broke below the 0.75 quantile back during the sideways market of early 2022. Another indicator that reinforces the resemblance is the Total Supply in Loss, which measures, as its name suggests, the amount of the Bitcoin circulating supply that’s being held at some net unrealized loss.

Below is a chart showing the 7-day moving average (MA) trend in the metric.

As displayed in the graph, the 7-day MA Bitcoin Total Supply in Loss hit a high of 7.1 million BTC last week, which is the highest that it has been since September 2023, more than two years ago.

The analytics firm noted:

The current scale of supply in loss, ranging between 5M–7M BTC, is strikingly similar to the early-2022 sideways market, further reinforcing the resemblance noted above.

Finally, the Bitcoin long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) also implies that the current market structure is mirroring Q1 2022. This metric tells us, in short, whether the Bitcoin investors holding since more than 155 days ago are selling their coins at a profit or loss.

The Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR has witnessed a sharp decline recently, but its value is still above 1, indicating the long-term holders are selling at some net profit. With its current value of 1.43, however, there has been a notable shrinkage in the profit margins of the cohort.

It now remains to be seen whether the trends in these indicators mean that the cryptocurrency is on the cusp of a bear market transition like in early 2022, or if a rebound will come before long.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has seen a slight pullback during the past day as its price has dropped to $91,800.

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed in a report how long-term Bitcoin liquidity has witnessed a sharp decline alongside the market downturn.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Liquidity Ratio Has Plunged Recently

In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has talked about how liquidity in the Bitcoin market has changed following the recent downturn. Glassnode has gauged the “liquidity” using the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, an on-chain metric that measures the ratio between the profit and loss that BTC investors are realizing through their transactions.

Current demand momentum can be tracked using a version of this indicator that specifically tracks the profitability of the short-term holders (STHs), investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days.

As the below chart shows, the STH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio was at relatively high levels earlier, but since early October, its value has plummeted.

With a value of just 0.07, the indicator is now sitting deep inside the loss region, a sign that the recent Bitcoin buyers have overwhelmingly been capitulating at a loss. “Such overwhelming loss dominance confirms that liquidity has evaporated, especially after the heavy demand absorption seen in Q2–Q3 2025 as long-term holders increased their spending,” explained the analytics firm.

The metric fell to similar lows back in Q1 2022, but so far, market weakness hasn’t been as prolonged. The report noted that if the ratio continues to be depressed, market conditions could mirror those from back then.

While short-term demand momentum has collapsed, the same hasn’t been true for long-term liquidity, at least not yet. Long-term momentum can be measured using the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio of the long-term holders (LTHs), representing the more resolute section of the market (holding time greater than 155 days).

From the above chart, it’s visible that the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the Bitcoin LTH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has witnessed a sharp decline as BTC has crashed.

Despite the drop, however, the metric’s value is still 408, implying LTHs are realizing, on average, a profit that’s 408 times the loss. This means that the long-term liquidity is still healthy compared to Q1 2022, or even the major bottom formations from the current cycle.

Glassnode warned, however, “if liquidity continues to fade and this ratio compresses toward 10x or lower, the probability of transitioning into a deeper bear market becomes difficult to ignore.”

It now remains to be seen how the LTH Realized Profit/Loss will change for Bitcoin in the near future, and if liquidity will see a further squeeze.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $90,600, down 1.3% over the past week.