XRP lost the $2 level after the broader crypto market suffered sharp declines on Monday, dragging price action back into a fragile zone. While the move rattled traders, Binance derivatives data suggests the sell-off has not triggered an extreme leverage unwind yet. Instead, the market appears to be entering a transitional phase where risk is rising, but speculative behavior remains relatively controlled.

Open interest metrics show a delicate balance between positioning and price weakness. Total XRP open interest on Binance climbed to roughly $566.48 million, pushing above the 30-day average near $528.84 million. This spread implies that fresh positions are still being added despite the downturn, but the pace looks measured rather than euphoric. In other words, traders are stepping in cautiously, not flooding the market with aggressive leverage.

The 30-day rolling Z-Score framework helps contextualize this shift. With open interest expanding while volatility stays contained, XRP may be building the conditions for a larger move ahead. For now, however, price remains vulnerable, and the next direction will likely depend on whether liquidity returns or fear deepens.

Open Interest Volatility Rises as XRP Builds Toward a Bigger Move

Arab Chain’s CryptoQuant read shows the most important shift isn’t the headline open interest figure, but the instability underneath it. The 30-day standard deviation of XRP open interest (oi_std30) has climbed to roughly $65.7 million, marking its highest level since November. That matters because it signals open interest is starting to swing more aggressively around its average, a pattern that often shows up before price leaves a tight range and enters expansion mode.

At the same time, the leverage signal still looks contained. The Z-Score holds near 0.57, signaling an elevated but not extreme level. In practical terms, positioning is growing, but it doesn’t look like the market is overheating or entering the kind of reckless leverage phase that typically leads to instant liquidation cascades. That combination—rising volatility in positioning while the Z-Score remains moderate—suggests momentum is building without a clear directional commitment yet.

This puts XRP in a “risk-on, but cautious” environment. Traders are adding exposure, volatility is creeping higher, and the setup is becoming more reactive. From here, oi_std30 becomes a key metric to track alongside price structure, because whichever way price breaks, the market is increasingly positioned for a larger move.

XRP Slides Back Toward $1.90 as Bears Keep Control

XRP remains under heavy pressure, with the chart showing price slipping back toward the $1.90 zone after failing to hold the $2 level. The market is printing a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming that the broader trend is still bearish despite several short-lived rebounds over recent weeks. Each time XRP attempts to recover, sellers quickly step in and cap momentum before it can reclaim key resistance levels.

The latest move highlights this weakness. XRP briefly pushed higher in early January but immediately rolled over, showing that demand is still too soft to sustain a breakout. The $2.00 region has now flipped into overhead resistance, and price will likely need a strong bullish catalyst to break back above it with conviction.

From a structure perspective, the current support area sits around $1.85–$1.90, which has acted as a short-term floor during the recent consolidation. If this zone fails, XRP could quickly revisit lower liquidity pockets, extending the downtrend.

Volume also reflects uncertainty. Activity remains erratic despite occasional, isolated spikes. This suggests the market is still reacting to fear-driven flows rather than steady accumulation. Price stalls in a fragile consolidation phase. And bulls need to reclaim above $2 to shift the short-term narrative back in their favor.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP is attempting to reclaim the $2 mark after a sharp breakdown that briefly dragged the price toward the $1.85 level. While bulls are trying to stabilize the move, the broader market remains under pressure as macroeconomic uncertainty rises and analysts continue to warn that crypto could be entering a deeper bear market phase. In this environment, volatility is being amplified by leverage, and XRP’s derivatives market has become a clear battleground.

A CryptoQuant report highlights how January 18 delivered one of the most painful sessions for leveraged XRP traders this month. Data from the XRP Exchange Liquidation Metrics shows a major wave of forced liquidations hitting long positions across major exchanges, signaling that many traders were positioned too aggressively into the downside move. Unlike trading volume or open interest, liquidation data reflects positions being closed involuntarily, meaning traders were wiped out rather than choosing to exit.

Total long liquidations reportedly exceeded $5 million on the day, marking a standout liquidation cluster for January. Binance played a dominant role in the flush, accounting for roughly $1.05 million in long liquidations, reinforcing its position as a key venue driving XRP’s short-term volatility.

Macro Headlines Triggered the XRP Leverage Flush

The CryptoQuant report suggests that XRP’s liquidation spike on January 18 was not purely technical, but part of a broader macro-driven risk-off move that hit the entire crypto market at once. Instead of a slow bleed, the sell-off looked like a synchronized shock, where traders across multiple assets were forced to reduce exposure as uncertainty surged in global markets.

According to the report, the trigger came from geopolitical and trade-war rhetoric. Financial Times reported that European capitals may respond to US pressure over Greenland by considering tariffs worth up to €93 billion ($107.7B), or even restricting US companies’ access to the EU market. Even without immediate policy action, the headline alone was enough to revive fears of renewed transatlantic escalation.

Markets typically treat these events as liquidity threats. When tariffs and retaliation enter the narrative, traders begin pricing in slower growth, tighter financial conditions, and more volatility. Crypto, still behaving as a high-beta risk asset, tends to react fast.

Bitcoin’s drop from above $95,000 to below $93,000 added fuel to the fire, reinforcing downside momentum across altcoins. In XRP, that pressure quickly turned into forced selling, as leveraged longs were liquidated into a falling market rather than exiting voluntarily.

XRP Struggles Below $2 After Sharp Rejection

XRP is attempting to stabilize after a violent downswing that pulled the price back into the $1.85–$2.00 zone. The daily chart shows a clear rejection from the recent rebound high near $2.40, followed by an aggressive selloff that erased most of the breakout attempt. XRP is now trading around $1.97, hovering just below the psychological $2 level. Which has turned into a short-term momentum pivot.

From a market structure perspective, the trend remains pressured. Price continues to trade under the major moving averages, with the faster average rolling over and acting as dynamic resistance. The mid-term curve is also sloping downward, reinforcing the idea that rallies are still being sold rather than held. This aligns with a broader pattern of lower highs since the October peak. Suggesting that the market is still in a corrective phase.

The wick structure and repeated failed pushes toward the $2.20–$2.40 region show sellers defending that supply zone aggressively. At the same time, buyers are taking action near $1.85, forming a visible demand floor that has held through recent volatility.

For bulls, reclaiming $2.10–$2.20 is the first step toward recovery. Otherwise, another breakdown toward $1.85 remains a valid risk.