XRP lost the $2 level after the broader crypto market suffered sharp declines on Monday, dragging price action back into a fragile zone. While the move rattled traders, Binance derivatives data suggests the sell-off has not triggered an extreme leverage unwind yet. Instead, the market appears to be entering a transitional phase where risk is rising, but speculative behavior remains relatively controlled.

Open interest metrics show a delicate balance between positioning and price weakness. Total XRP open interest on Binance climbed to roughly $566.48 million, pushing above the 30-day average near $528.84 million. This spread implies that fresh positions are still being added despite the downturn, but the pace looks measured rather than euphoric. In other words, traders are stepping in cautiously, not flooding the market with aggressive leverage.

The 30-day rolling Z-Score framework helps contextualize this shift. With open interest expanding while volatility stays contained, XRP may be building the conditions for a larger move ahead. For now, however, price remains vulnerable, and the next direction will likely depend on whether liquidity returns or fear deepens.

Open Interest Volatility Rises as XRP Builds Toward a Bigger Move

Arab Chain’s CryptoQuant read shows the most important shift isn’t the headline open interest figure, but the instability underneath it. The 30-day standard deviation of XRP open interest (oi_std30) has climbed to roughly $65.7 million, marking its highest level since November. That matters because it signals open interest is starting to swing more aggressively around its average, a pattern that often shows up before price leaves a tight range and enters expansion mode.

At the same time, the leverage signal still looks contained. The Z-Score holds near 0.57, signaling an elevated but not extreme level. In practical terms, positioning is growing, but it doesn’t look like the market is overheating or entering the kind of reckless leverage phase that typically leads to instant liquidation cascades. That combination—rising volatility in positioning while the Z-Score remains moderate—suggests momentum is building without a clear directional commitment yet.

This puts XRP in a “risk-on, but cautious” environment. Traders are adding exposure, volatility is creeping higher, and the setup is becoming more reactive. From here, oi_std30 becomes a key metric to track alongside price structure, because whichever way price breaks, the market is increasingly positioned for a larger move.

XRP Slides Back Toward $1.90 as Bears Keep Control

XRP remains under heavy pressure, with the chart showing price slipping back toward the $1.90 zone after failing to hold the $2 level. The market is printing a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming that the broader trend is still bearish despite several short-lived rebounds over recent weeks. Each time XRP attempts to recover, sellers quickly step in and cap momentum before it can reclaim key resistance levels.

The latest move highlights this weakness. XRP briefly pushed higher in early January but immediately rolled over, showing that demand is still too soft to sustain a breakout. The $2.00 region has now flipped into overhead resistance, and price will likely need a strong bullish catalyst to break back above it with conviction.

From a structure perspective, the current support area sits around $1.85–$1.90, which has acted as a short-term floor during the recent consolidation. If this zone fails, XRP could quickly revisit lower liquidity pockets, extending the downtrend.

Volume also reflects uncertainty. Activity remains erratic despite occasional, isolated spikes. This suggests the market is still reacting to fear-driven flows rather than steady accumulation. Price stalls in a fragile consolidation phase. And bulls need to reclaim above $2 to shift the short-term narrative back in their favor.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

While XRP retests a crucial support area, some analysts have suggested that the altcoin is preparing for a massive expansion in the coming months, as a potential trend reversal begins to form and its 2017 formula repeats.

XRP Gears Up For Massive Expansion

On Friday, XRP reached a 12-day low, falling to the $2.02 area before bouncing. Notably, the cryptocurrency has been trading within the $2.05-$2.35 area for nearly two weeks, moving between the mid and lower zones of this price range for most of this period.

Amid its recent performance, Sjuul from AltCryptoGems noted that the altcoin “is starting to look better, especially after that bullish market structure break with a fresh higher high.” The analyst highlighted that the cryptocurrency has been consistently trending lower since August, exclusively printing lower lows and lower highs.

However, it has broken out of this structure and recorded a higher high for the first time in months after the start-of-the-year rally, setting the stage for a potential reversal. “Now, we have to maintain this bullish structure at any cost and form a higher low on the next dip,” Sjuul warned.

Meanwhile, market observer ChartNerd pointed to a striking similarity between XRP’s 2017 playbook and its current performance. In an X post, the analyst affirmed that the altcoin is repeating its 2016-2017 formula, which led to a massive rally toward its previous all-time high (ATH).

At the time, XRP saw a textbook multi-year symmetrical triangle formation breakout, followed by a multi-month ABC consolidation before its 1,500% mark-up. This time, the cryptocurrency has repeated a similar symmetrical triangle pattern breakout, and it is currently in Wave C of its ABC consolidation period.

To the analyst, a deeper Wave C retracement is possible if the multi-month $1.80 support is lost. Nonetheless, he added that “cycle formula repetition signals XRP is gearing up for expansion towards $8/$13/$27,” which would be a 300%-1,250% increase from the current levels.

Q1 Close To Define XRP’s Future

Despite his bullish forecast, ChartNerd also shared an important warning for the next two months. According to the analyst, “XRP has just over 2 months to invalidate this 3M bearish Heikin-Ashi candle formation,” or it will risk a massive correction.

In a video analysis, he explained that, in the past, whenever the altcoin saw massive rallies followed by a red bearish candle on the three-month timeframe, it would “normally indicate the start of a downtrend or a macro consolidation period.”

In 2014, XRP saw a bearish candle print in the three-month timeframe after a remarkable pump, which was followed by a correction and consolidation “for quite a couple of years,” he explained.

“The same happened again in 2018. We had this massive rally for XRP, and as soon as we printed a three-month bearish candle in the Heikin-Ashi Candle formation, (…) we entered into the bear market,” ChartNerd continued.

Similarly, the cryptocurrency repeated the same performance in 2021. Now, XRP is starting to form a red candle in this timeframe and has approximately 2 months and 16 days to close the quarter on a positive note.

“We have until March before this candle closes. (…) So, what we don’t want to see is this full-bodied three-month Heikin-Ashi Candle, because if we see it, this is where we are likely to see a deeper correction for the next six to nine and even 12 months,” the analyst concluded.

As of this writing, XRP is trading at $2.05, a 1.7% decline in the weekly timeframe.