XRP has given back all of its early‑year gains, sliding toward the $1.90. Despite the pullback, several on‑chain and market indicators are pointing to a possible breakout from current levels, driven largely by a sharp decline in XRP held on exchanges. 

XRP Exchange Balances Slide To 1.5B

Market analyst Sam Daodu notes that over the past months, a substantial portion of XRP has steadily moved off centralized trading platforms and into long‑term storage and institutional custody. 

On‑chain figures indicate that XRP exchange balances dropped from roughly 4 billion tokens in early 2025 to about 1.5 billion by late December. This 57% decline represents the steepest annual reduction in XRP exchange supply on record.

Data from CryptoQuant reinforces this trend, showing shrinking XRP reserves on major trading platforms such as Binance, where balances continued to fall into early 2026. At the same time, wallet accumulation has increased, particularly among institutional custody accounts. 

Daodu argues that with fewer tokens available on exchanges, buying pressure that previously moved XRP only marginally can now drive gains of 10% to 15% within days. 

When combined with approximately $1.37 billion in XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows recorded since November 2025, Daodu believes the conditions favor a potential breakout toward the $4 to $5 range, rather than another rally that stalls below $3.

Bullish, Base, And Bearish Scenarios

Looking ahead, Daodu outlines three broad price paths for XRP, each tied to how exchange balances and ETF inflows evolve. In a bullish scenario, the altcoin could move into the $4 to $5 range if monthly ETF inflows average $300-$500 million and exchange balances fall below 1.5 billion tokens. 

A more neutral outcome would see XRP trading between $2.50 and $3.50. This scenario assumes ETF inflows slow to roughly $50 million to $70 million per week and exchange balances continue to decline at a steadier pace. 

The bearish case hinges on the possibility that the supply contraction thesis proves overstated. If rapid transfers refill exchange order books, escrow releases increase selling pressure, or ETF demand slows due to tighter macroeconomic conditions, XRP could lose support. 

In that scenario, prices may fall below $2.00 and revisit the $1.60 level during periods of risk aversion. Prolonged uncertainty could see XRP trading between $1.50 and $2.00 for much of 2026, according to the analyst. 

At the time of writing, the altcoin was trading at $1.94. This represented losses of 4% and 8% over seven and fourteen-day periods, respectively. This positions the fifth-largest cryptocurrency in terms of market cap 46% below the current all-time high of $3.64 reached back in July of last year.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

After a negative print on January 20, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to XRP have resumed their accumulation. After a brief pullback on January 20, XRP-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have resumed accumulation, adding fresh fuel to bullish XRP price prediction.

Data from SoSo Value shows that ETFs brought in $9 million in the past two days.

As a result, XRP’s ETF assets stand at $1.37 billion, still surpassing Solana-linked ETF products as Wall Street’s appetite for the top altcoin persists.

Ongoing accumulation seems to indicate that whales are aware of something that the rest of the market is ignoring.

Is XRP getting ready to make an explosive move?

XRP Price Prediction: Descending Triangle Breakout Could Finally Push XRP Above Its 200-Day EMA

The price has bounced off the $1.90 support multiple times already, creating a strong floor from which XRP could start running higher.

The last rally started after the token broke out of the descending triangle shown in the chart, but faced strong selling pressure at the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).

A similar setup has formed now, anticipating a potential move from bulls over the next few days if the $1.90 level holds.

If that happens, the odds of a bullish breakout above the 200-day EMA will rise. This translates into a short-term target of $2.50, followed by a much stronger move to $3.10 at least.

As altcoins regain momentum and prepare for the next major rally, top crypto presales like Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) are gaining serious traction.

This high-potential project has already raised over $30 million, aiming to bring Solana’s fast speeds and low costs to the Bitcoin network.

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) Revamps BTC’s Use Cases by Leveraging Solana’s Power

While BTC is a great store of value, it has always been slow and expensive to move – until now.

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This new layer 2 solution solves the biggest problems Bitcoin has faced by reducing transaction fees to nearly zero and enabling instant asset transfers.

For the first time, BTC holders will get to do more than just buy and hold.

Through this L2, they will finally put their Bitcoin to work by lending, staking, and trading their assets without leaving the security of the Bitcoin network.

The crypto community is already moving fast, with over $30 million raised to bring this vision to life.

At the heart of this project is the $HYPER token. As adoption grows and more users tap into its fast, low-cost Layer 2 features, demand for $HYPER is expected to rise.

If you want to get in early, you can still grab $HYPER at its presale price.

Simply visit the official Bitcoin Hyper website and connect any wallet, such as Best Wallet.

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The post XRP Price Prediction: Price Holds Strong as ETF Inflows Quietly Return – Do Whales Know Something? appeared first on Cryptonews.

• Current crypto profits can face tax rates of up to 55% under the miscellaneous income system.
• Only specified crypto assets under Japan’s financial framework will qualify for the lower rate.
• A three-year loss carry-forward for crypto investments will begin in 2026.

Japan is preparing to recalibrate how cryptocurrency gains are taxed, marking a notable change in its long-standing approach to digital assets.

Under the government’s 2026 tax reform plan, profits from certain crypto investments could be taxed at a flat rate of 20%, replacing a system that currently treats crypto gains as miscellaneous income.

That classification has pushed effective tax rates as high as 55%, drawing sustained criticism from investors and industry participants.

The proposed reform suggests that policymakers in Japan are moving toward a framework that recognises crypto as part of the broader financial market, while still maintaining firm regulatory controls.

A rethink of crypto taxation

For years, Japan’s crypto tax rules have stood apart from those applied to traditional investments. Shares and investment trusts benefit from a flat tax regime, offering clarity and predictability for investors.

Crypto, by contrast, has been subject to progressive income tax rates, often cited as a deterrent to participation.

The planned shift to a flat 20% rate aims to reduce this imbalance.

By aligning crypto gains more closely with equity taxation, the government appears to be addressing concerns that the current system discourages domestic trading and long-term holding.

The reform also reflects the growing role of digital assets in investment portfolios, moving beyond short-term speculation.

Scope and eligibility limits

The tax cut will not apply across the entire crypto market.

Instead, it will be limited to “specified crypto assets”, a category linked to digital assets handled by firms registered under Japan’s Financial Instruments and Exchange Act framework.

This structure is designed to ensure that only assets operating within a recognised regulatory perimeter benefit from the lower rate.

Major cryptocurrencies are widely expected to qualify, although authorities have yet to publish final criteria.

By narrowing eligibility, regulators can promote activity in established and liquid assets while maintaining tighter oversight of less transparent tokens.

Regulation alongside incentives

Tax reform is being paired with broader regulatory adjustments.

By bringing crypto under legal structures similar to those governing traditional financial instruments, Japan aims to strengthen investor protections.

Measures are expected to improve standards around custody, disclosures, and operational practices.

This approach signals that the government’s objective is not deregulation, but integration.

Clearer rules and stronger safeguards could make crypto participation more accessible to investors who have previously avoided the market due to uncertainty around compliance and risk.

Loss offsets and investment products

Another element of the 2026 reform is the introduction of a three-year loss carry-forward for crypto investments.

This would allow investors to offset future gains with past losses, a mechanism already familiar in equity markets but previously unavailable for crypto.

Japan is also expanding its range of crypto-linked investment products.

After launching its first XRP-linked exchange-traded fund, the country is reportedly considering additional funds tied to approved digital assets.

Together, these measures point to a gradual effort to embed crypto within the existing investment ecosystem rather than treat it as a parallel market.

The post Japan signals a friendlier crypto regime with sweeping tax reform plans appeared first on CoinJournal.