Concerns regarding the potential exclusion of Strategy (MSTR) from the MSCI index emerged last week, with estimates from JPMorgan analysts indicating that such a move could result in approximately $2 billion to $8 billion in outflows.

Amid mounting concerns within the crypto community, Michael Saylor confirmed that the company is in discussions with MSCI regarding its potential exclusion from the provider’s indices. 

Michael Saylor Weighs In On Exclusion Concerns

MSCI has stated that by January 15, it will decide whether to remove companies whose business models focus on purchasing cryptocurrencies, amid concerns that these firms resemble investment funds, which are currently ineligible for index inclusion.

Reuters reported that Saylor acknowledged the discussions with MSCI but expressed skepticism regarding JPMorgan’s projections of potential outflows. He commented, “It won’t make any difference, in my opinion,” regarding the implications of a possible exclusion. 

Saylor noted that the equity associated with Strategy is inherently volatile due to its significant reliance on Bitcoin’s (BTC) price. He cautioned, “If Bitcoin falls 30% or 40%, then the equity is going to fall more, because the equity is built to fall.” 

Currently, Strategy operates with a leverage ratio of 1.11, and Saylor indicated that the company could withstand a steep decline of 95% in Bitcoin prices.

Reports from NewsBTC indicated that Saylor Strategy’s position emphasizing that it is not merely a passive Bitcoin holding entity. Instead, he highlighted that the company functions as a software firm with a proactive financial strategy, countering the narrative surrounding MSCI’s concerns.

Strategy Establishes New USD Reserve 

The recent fluctuations in Bitcoin prices have reignited fears of a potential bear market, raising questions about whether Strategy would consider selling some of its substantial Bitcoin reserves, currently exceeding 650,000 coins. 

This speculation intensified after Strategy CEO Phong Le addressed the possibility of selling some holdings during an interview on the “What Bitcoin Did” podcast. 

Le stated that if the company’s stock trades below the value of its Bitcoin holdings and it is unable to raise additional capital for preferred dividends, a sale might become unavoidable. 

“If the stock trades below the value of our Bitcoin, then mathematically we would have to sell some Bitcoin. It would be the last resort,” he explained.

To support this vision, the Virginia-based company recently announced the establishment of a $1.44 billion reserve fund allocated for dividend payments on preferred stock and to meet its debt obligations.

The newly created reserve is funded through proceeds from its at-the-market stock offering. The company aims to maintain a balance sufficient to cover at least 12 months of dividends, with ambitions to extend this coverage to 24 months or more in the future. 

Saylor remarked, “Establishing a USD Reserve to complement our BTC Reserve marks the next step in our evolution. We believe it will better position us to navigate short-term market volatility while delivering on our vision of being the world’s leading issuer of Digital Credit.”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading just above $93,000, marking a 4.5% increase over the past 24 hours. MSTR, the stock of the investment firm Strategy, traded up 2% in the premarket. 

Featured image from Bloomberg, chart from TradingView.com 

Despite a 9% recovery on Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced considerable volatility, with its price plummeting to as low as $84,000 just 24 hours ago. This downturn has had a significant impact on Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) the public company that holds the largest BTC reserves, currently boasting over 650,000 coins.

Strategy T-Rex ETFs Plummet Nearly 85%

NewsBTC reported that the company’s CEO, Phong Le, suggested the possibility of selling some of their Bitcoin holdings in light of the current market conditions. 

Alongside this, the company’s leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also faced substantial losses, intensifying worries about Strategy’s financial health.

Reuters highlighted that Strategy’s leveraged ETFs, which are designed to magnify returns on the firm’s stock, have been among the largest casualties of this year’s cryptocurrency slump. 

Two specific ETFs, the T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF and the Defiance Daily Target 2x Long MSTR ETF, have seen dramatic declines, losing nearly 85% of their value this year. 

Additionally, the T-Rex 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF has dropped by 48% in the same time frame. In this environment, shares of Strategy, MSTR, have fallen more than 40% this year, driven primarily by Bitcoin’s price crash. 

Investor attention is now focused on Strategy’s “mNAV” (market net asset value) metric, which compares the company’s enterprise value to its Bitcoin holdings. 

Following Le’s comments, where he mentioned the firm might consider selling cryptocurrencies if the mNAV drops below 1, concerns grew about the firm’s long-term outlook. Current estimates place this ratio around 1.1, according to calculations by Reuters.

Analysts Remain Optimistic

Mike O’Rourke, the chief market strategist at JonesTrading, noted that Le’s remarks diminish the company’s message of steadfastness in holding Bitcoin, even amid market volatility. 

The company has also revised its full-year outlook, warning of a potential profit ranging from $6.3 billion to a loss of $5.5 billion, a stark adjustment from its earlier forecast of $24 billion in net profit. This prior estimate, made on October 30, anticipated Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end.

Commenting on the shifting strategies within the firm, Vincenzo Vedda, chief investment officer at DWS, remarked, “Great strategy from Strategy, while prices go up. When they go down, well, the strategic options left to the company are limited.”

Since entering the Nasdaq 100 index, Strategy’s shares have dropped more than 70% from their peak in November 2024, more than halving in value over the year. 

Despite this dismal performance, analyst sentiments remain relatively optimistic; of the 16 brokerages monitoring Strategy, 10 recommend it as a “buy” while four suggest a “strong buy,” with an overall median price target of $485, reflecting a potential 183% increase over the next year based on LSEG data.

When writing, the market’s leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, managed to recover the $92,000 line.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

In a turbulent market marked by falling prices, Bitcoin (BTC) has once again dipped below the $85,000 threshold, driven by growing speculation that Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, may be on the verge of selling some of its Bitcoin holdings. 

This intensified after a recent interview on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, during which Strategy CEO Phong Le was directly asked whether the company would consider parting with any of its BTC holdings. 

While the firm’s former CEO, Michael Saylor, has consistently maintained a resolute stance against selling, Le’s comments have raised concerns about potential sales in the future.

Is A Bitcoin Sell-Off Imminent? 

Le indicated that if Strategy’s stock trades below the actual value of its Bitcoin holdings and the company is unable to raise additional capital for preferred dividends, selling some Bitcoin could become a necessity. 

“If the stock trades below the value of our Bitcoin… then mathematically we would have to sell some Bitcoin. It would be the last resort,” he explained. 

While this does not confirm an imminent sale, it visibly places the option on the table, leading to increased speculation about a forced sale as preferred dividend payments approach due on December 31.

Adding to the unease, Strategy disclosed in a recent filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that it has established a USD Reserve of $1.44 billion to cover these upcoming preferred dividends and mitigate the interest on its substantial debt. 

This reserve was funded through the proceeds from sales of its class A common stock under the company’s at-the-market offering program. Such moves have diluted current shareholders and contributed to a nearly 11% drop in Strategy’s stock price.

Strategy Downgrades BTC Price Forecast

This shift contrasts sharply with the company’s previous forecasts, which predicted that Bitcoin would soar to $150,000 by the end of the year. Strategy has now revised its expectations, projecting prices to range between $85,000 and $110,000. 

The forecast for BTC yields has also been revised down to 24% from a previous estimate of 30%, along with projected Bitcoin gains decreasing significantly from $20 billion to $10.6 billion at the midpoint.

As Bitcoin’s value continues to plummet, it further unravels Strategy’s financial outlook. Nevertheless, social media experts have pointed to a paradox within the company’s messaging. 

AlejandroXBT noted that while Saylor has consistently stated he will never sell Bitcoin, he has been conducting private presentations to clients outlining various strategic approaches, suggesting a potential disconnect between public declarations and private planning.

When writing, the market’s leading cryptocurrency trades at $84,880, recording major losses of over 7% in the 24-hour time frame. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com