Bitcoin traders are once again anchoring to FX, after intervention rumors around USD/JPY revived a familiar tug-of-war: short-term shock risk from a strengthening yen versus the longer-horizon bid that typically follows a softer dollar and easier global liquidity.

The spark over the weekend was a viral X thread (2.9 million views) from Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio), which framed reported “rate checks” by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York as a prelude to coordinated action. “The New York Fed has already done rate checks, which is the exact step taken before real currency intervention,” the account wrote. “That means the US is preparing to sell dollars and buy yen. This is rare. And historically, when this happens, global markets surge.”

Bitcoin In The Crosshairs

Bull Theory pointed to the macro backdrop in Japan, years of yen weakness, Japanese bond yields at multi-decade highs, and a still-hawkish Bank of Japan, as the pressure cooker forcing officials toward more aggressive signaling. In the thread’s telling, the key variable is coordination: Japan acting alone “does not work,” while joint US-Japan action “does,” citing 1998 and the Plaza Accord era as historical reference points.

A Bloomberg report cited by the account described the yen’s sharp jump on speculation that Japanese authorities could be preparing intervention to arrest the currency’s slide, after traders reported the New York Fed had conducted rate checks with major banks. The story said the yen rallied as much as roughly 1.6% to around 155.90 per dollar, marking its strongest level since December in that session.

THE FED IS PREPARING TO SELL U.S. DOLLARS AND BUY JAPANESE YEN FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS CENTURY.

The New York Fed has already done rate checks, which is the exact step taken before real currency intervention. That means the U.S. is preparing to sell dollars and buy yen.

This… pic.twitter.com/7xFReOFoDo

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) January 25, 2026

The fight in the replies was less about whether markets moved and more about what a “rate check” actually signals.

Daniel Kostecki (@Dan_Kostecki) dismissed the viral framing outright, arguing the mechanism is often misread. “The Japanese asked the NY Fed to act as their agent in the American market,” Kostecki wrote. “NY Fed employees then started calling banks in New York to perform the ‘rate check’—strictly at the Japanese’s request. If officials from Tokyo had called New York banks, traders might have ignored it as a ‘local Japanese problem.’ But when the Fed calls, banks treat it as a signal that a joint intervention (USA + Japan) might be coming.”

That distinction matters for crypto because the thread’s “bull case” leans heavily on the idea that selling dollars to buy yen mechanically weakens the dollar and expands liquidity, conditions many macro-focused crypto traders associate with risk-asset upside.

Ted (@TedPillows) echoed the liquidity-first interpretation while flagging the path dependency. “The Fed is preparing for a possible yen intervention,” he wrote, before laying out the causal chain: dollars sold, yen bought, dollar weaker, liquidity higher, risk assets helped, then warning that “a strengthening yen could first cause a similar crash like in August 2024.” After that, he added, markets could stabilize and rally.

Michael A. Gayed (@leadlagreport), Portfolio Manager of The Free Markets ETF, offered a different rationale for why Washington would care, suggesting the Fed is acting to prevent a scenario where Japan would need to sell US Treasuries to raise dollars to intervene—“It’s not that Japan will panic. It’s the Fed that will panic,” he wrote.

Bull Theory’s most concrete crypto claim was that the setup contains both a near-term trap and a medium-term tailwind. The account argued there are “hundreds of billions of dollars tied into the yen carry trade,” meaning abrupt yen strength can force deleveraging in the very assets, stocks and crypto, funded with cheap yen borrowing.

As an example, the account pointed to August 2024, claiming a small BoJ rate hike pushed the yen higher and “Bitcoin crashed from $64K to $49K in six days,” with crypto losing “$600B in value.” Bull Theory framed that episode as the template for the “catch” in 2026: yen strength can be toxic in the first act, even if sustained dollar weakness ultimately improves the liquidity backdrop for Bitcoin.

LondonCryptoClub (@LDNCryptoClub) leaned into that lagged-liquidity framing, arguing that a weaker dollar tends to filter into risk assets with a delay, while also introducing an additional US liquidity variable. “Continued and accelerated breakdown of the dollar will be good for Bitcoin and broad risk over the next few months,” the account wrote, adding that the dollar “tends to act with a 3 months lag” outside of “knee jerk reactions.” It also warned that a potential US government shutdown and subsequent Treasury General Account rebuild could offset some of the positive liquidity impulse.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $87,926.

Over the weekend, volatility observed across the broader cryptocurrency market intensified, causing the price of Bitcoin to fall back to the $86,000 mark once again. Even with the bearish price action in the past few days, buying activity continues to pick up pace in the market, especially among large BTC holders.

Bitcoin’s Largest Wallets Show Conviction

Bitcoin’s price may have been struggling with heightened volatility as a result of the broader market bearish market action, but bullish sentiment remains present among investors. In the weakening condition, large BTC whales or deep-pocket investors’ sentiment turns positive and are steadily reentering the market.

Data from Santiment, a popular market intelligence and on-chain data platform, suggests that these major investors are building positions at an encouraging and steady pace, even though the broader momentum is demonstrating weakening conditions. In the past, long-term whale accumulation has typically happened in uncertain times when prices don’t accurately reflect underlying confidence.

Santiment noted that the buying activity is spotted among wallet addresses holding over 1,000 BTC. After months of consistent buying, the group has now collectively acquired about 104,340 BTC, which represents a more than 1.5% rise. 

As a result of the recent purchase, the investors’ overall holdings are currently sitting at 7.17 million BTC, marking their largest level since September 15, 2025. These wealthy investors are subtly consuming available supplies rather than distributing into recent market swings, indicating confidence in Bitcoin’s medium- to long-term potential. 

While buying pressure is growing among large Bitcoin holders, the number of whale transactions has also experienced a massive upswing. Santiment added that the amount of +$1 million daily transfers has exploded, reaching a 2-month high level.

A Continued Drop In BTC Open Interest

A continued drop in Bitcoin’s Open Interest is coinciding with the ongoing drop in price. Darkfost, a market expert and CryptoQuant author, highlighted that open interest is steadily declining, which does not support the emergence of a new trend as seen on the weekly change basis.

Since November, the metric has remained broadly negative, suggesting that the drop has continued for several weeks. Although there was a brief improvement earlier this month, it was followed by a price reaction. 

Overall, when open interest rises, Darkfost stated that it mostly signals trend continuation to even a trend reversal, triggered by an influx of long positions. Furthermore, this is confirmed with funding rates, but this is what happens in most cases.

On Sunday, as BTC displays a steady correction, deleveraging also increased. While this is bearish in the short term, these phases simultaneously aid in cleaning the market of excessive leverage. Thus, it is critical to remember that futures are still the primary source of volume, making keeping an eye on developments there an essential move.

A new Bitcoin price prediction has been put forward following a long-term technical analysis shared on the social media platform X by crypto analyst Leshka.eth. The analysis compares Bitcoin’s current structure on the weekly timeframe to the 2021 market peak, showing how price behavior is repeating an identical pattern. 

Based on how Bitcoin has interacted with a rising multi-year channel in previous cycles, the analysis proposes a projection as to how Bitcoin could be setting up for a powerful corrective move that sends the price back to as low as $30,000.

Bitcoin Weekly Structure About To Break

Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the weekly candlestick timeframe chart shows that the leading cryptocurrency has been trading with higher highs and higher lows since 2018. Interestingly, this trend of higher highs has led to repeated interaction with a rising resistance trendline that has defined every major cycle top.

As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin pushes into this upper boundary during each bull market, only to be rejected once momentum fades. These rejection points are clearly marked across multiple cycles, including the 2017 and 2021 peaks. This repeated failure is a defining feature of Bitcoin’s macro cycles of exhaustion after prolonged upside expansion.

Bitcoin once again rallied into this same long-term trendline when it broke to new all-time highs in October 2025 before stalling and rolling over. Bitcoin’s price failed to hold above the trendline and has corrected by about 30% since then. The leading cryptocurrency is now trading below $90,000, and this technical outlook introduces the possibility that the current pullback is not yet complete and could extend further.

Bitcoin Weekly Candlestick Chart. Source: @leshka_eth on X

Bitcoin Crash Extension To $30,000?

The chart also highlights the depth of prior bear market declines once Bitcoin was rejected at this long-term structure. After the 2017 cycle top, Bitcoin fell roughly 84.99% from peak to trough. Following the 2021 high, Bitcoin once again declined by about 77.47% before finding a bottom near the lower boundary of the broader rising channel. 

Based on the current setup, the projected downside move marked on the chart measures approximately 72.86%. Applying a drawdown of that magnitude from the recent cycle high places Bitcoin’s potential bottom around $30,000.

Interestingly, Grok AI offered a more optimistic interpretation of Bitcoin’s near-term outlook based on responses to questions under the same technical post. According to Grok, aggregated views from sources such as CNBC, Reddit, and Forbes suggest that the probability of Bitcoin dropping into the $30,000 to $40,000 range is relatively low, estimated at around 15% to 25% by bearish cycle models.

On the other hand, many analysts instead expect higher price floors, often above $50,000. Some long-term projections extend over $200,000, with names like Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao predicting $200,000 and Tom Lee predicting $250,000 in 2026.

The calls of a potential Bitcoin supercycle in 2026 intensified over the past week after former Binance CEO Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao — yet another prominent voice in crypto — laid out his predictions for the new year. However, a popular analyst on the social media platform X has released an opposing view, predicting a deep bottom for the BTC price this year.

BTC Price At Risk Of Further 65% Decline

In a January 25th post on the X platform, prominent crypto trader Ali Martinez said, in a sarcastic tone, that “the super cycle is super cycling.” In what seemed like a response to the buzz around CZ’s Bitcoin supercycle projection, the market pundit tempered the expectations with a $31,000 price bottom call for the premier cryptocurrency in 2026.

This bearish prediction is based on the appearance of price fractals on the BTC chart. For context, fractals are repeating patterns in price charts that can help map and project potential price movements for a particular cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this scenario).

As observed in the chart above, the price of BTC is currently following a similar movement pattern as in 2022. The premier cryptocurrency, after initially setting a then all-time high around $67,000 in early 2021, witnessed a nearly 55% correction to just above the $30,000 level by mid-July.

While the price of Bitcoin recovered and went back to set a record high of above $69,000 by the end of 2021, the market leader spent the majority of the following year in a downward trend. Exacerbated by the various bearish events of 2022, BTC ended the year at a low of around $15,500.

Martinez believes that the Bitcoin price is undergoing a similar movement pattern, having experienced an over 32% decline before climbing to the current all-time high of $126,080. The market pundit postulates that the premier cryptocurrency is currently witnessing the extended decline that saw its price reach $15,500 in 2022.

However, it is worth mentioning that the target this time around lies at $31,800, nearly 65% drop from the current price point. Hence, if the historical patterns highlighted by Martinez are to go by, there seems to be a higher likelihood of the Bitcoin price embarking on an extended downward trend rather than a supercycle.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $88,528, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours.

The Bitcoin price action has been muted over the past few days, trading within the $90,000 and $88,000 levels. Classically, consolidation periods often precede major moves either to the upside or downside of the market.

As such, questions on the next trajectory of the flagship cryptocurrency are being asked. A latest on-chain evaluation has offered a positive prognosis on the next direction for the Bitcoin price. 

Accumulation Demand Metric Surges To All-Time-High 

In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, on-chain analyst CoinNiel hypothesized that the Bitcoin price could be at the beginning of a bullish trend. The market quant based this prognosis on two metrics — the Accumulator Address Demand and the Liquidity Inventory Ratio (month). 

The Accumulator Address Demand metric monitors the net buying pressure coming from addresses that buy Bitcoin consistently, and without any significant selling. This behavior (of buying and rarely selling) is typical of the large-scale Bitcoin holders, commonly known as the whales. 

Notably, CoinNiel also pointed out that when major withdrawals from exchanges occur, they are rarely ever incited by retailers, but by whales. As such, when the Bitcoin whales withdraw their holdings from exchanges, their buying pressure translates into an increase in the Accumulator Address Demand. 

From the chart above, the indicator has reached an all-time high level. According to the crypto pundit, this could be a sign that the whales are currently experiencing, on intense levels, the “fear of missing out.”

The second metric, the Liquidity Inventory Ratio (Month), also reinforces CoinNiel’s bullish outlook. This metric tracks and compares existing Bitcoin demand to the supply available on exchanges, showing whether demand can overwhelm available supply. 

When this ratio rises sharply, it is usually a sign that demand is absorbing newly created supply. From the data shared by the analyst, the Liquidity Inventory Ratio has also reached an extreme value of 3.8.

However, this extreme reading is only a reflection of what is happening on US exchanges. Hence, CoinNiel implied that, for the first time in years, US exchanges are recording exceptionally high demand relative to the coins available.

In theory, a 3.8 reading implies the imminence of a supply shock in the scenario where current conditions prevail. But, the analyst highlighted that it may not necessarily happen, as a 3.8 reading is more a sign of intensified whale demand than a surefire means to predict supply shocks. 

The big picture, especially when these two metrics are looked at together, appears to be distinctly bullish. This is because available data points out that the whales are likely positioning for what could be a resumed bullish trajectory for the Bitcoin price.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at $88,520, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours.

The Bitcoin price is showing signs of history repeating itself, as current price action mirrors key patterns from the 2021 cluster. With resistance near $91,000–$92,000 and the macro downtrend looming, traders are watching closely to see if BTC will break higher or face renewed pressure. The coming days could prove decisive in shaping the next major move.

Bitcoin Mirrors 2021 Cluster: History In Motion

Bitcoin continues to mirror the price patterns seen during the 2021 cluster. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital noted that the current market structure is echoing historical behavior, suggesting that similar dynamics are at play. Traders are closely watching these familiar patterns to gauge whether the cycle is repeating itself or if new trends may emerge.

The rules of the game remain consistent. A bearish acceleration would likely be triggered if Bitcoin breaks down from the macro descending triangle base, currently positioned around $82,000. Conversely, a bullish bias would require a decisive break above the macro downtrend, which sits near $100,000. These levels serve as critical decision points for the market, dictating whether bulls or bears gain control in the coming sessions.

So far, Bitcoin has encountered rejection in the high $90,000s, falling just short of the macro downtrend. This mirrors previous market behavior, in which the asset developed a basing structure near the triangle’s base before attempting to push higher toward the downtrend’s upper boundary. It demonstrates that history is repeating itself for now, with the market consolidating and preparing for its next directional move.

If the macro downtrend continues to act as resistance, the triangle’s base may gradually weaken over time. Such a development would increase the risk of further downside, making the reaction at both the base and the downtrend crucial. 

BTC Surpasses $91,000 Before Facing Selling Pressure

In a recent market update by Ted, it was noted that while Bitcoin broke above the $91,000 threshold yesterday, the rally met significant resistance. Sellers entered the market with substantial force at these local highs, effectively capping the momentum and preventing a sustained breakout.

As a result of this rejection, Bitcoin has retreated into the “no-trading zone.” Ted suggests that this period of sideways price action is likely to persist through the next couple of days, largely driven by the typical low-liquidity environment seen during the weekend.

Looking ahead, the outlook remains cautious. Ted emphasizes that any upward movements will likely be short-lived until BTC can decisively clear the $91,000 to $92,000 resistance zone. Meanwhile, such a move must be backed by strong spot demand to prove its validity.

Swiss banking giant UBS, with assets under management (AuM) of up to $7 trillion, is set to launch Bitcoin trading for some of its clients. This comes amid predictions that regulatory clarity and broader adoption could send the BTC price to as high as $200,000. 

UBS To Offer Bitcoin Trading To Some Wealth Clients

Bloomberg reported that UBS is planning to launch crypto trading for some of its wealth clients, starting with its private bank clients in Switzerland. The bank will reportedly begin by offering these clients the opportunity to invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum. At the same time, the crypto offering could further expand to clients in the Pacific-Asia region and the U.S.

The banking giant is currently in discussions with potential partners, and there is no clear timeline for when it could launch Bitcoin and Ethereum trading for clients. This move is said to be partly due to increased demand from wealth clients for crypto exposure. UBS also faces increased competition as other Wall Street giants are working to offer crypto trading. 

Morgan Stanley, in partnership with Zerohash, announced plans to launch crypto trading in the first half of this year, starting with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The banking giant may soon also be able to offer its crypto products, as it has filed with the SEC to launch spot BTC, ETH, and SOL ETFs. 

Furthermore, JPMorgan, another of UBS’ competitors, is considering offering crypto trading to institutional clients, although this plan is still in the early stages. The bank already accepts Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral from its clients. Last year, it also filed to offer BTC structured notes that will track the performance of the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF.

Can Bank’s Entry Trigger A BTC Rally To $200,000  

Kevin O’Leary predicted that Bitcoin could rally to between $150,000 and $200,000 this year, driven by the passage of the CLARITY Act. His prediction came just as White House Crypto Czar David Sacks said banks would fully enter crypto once the bill passes. As such, there is a possibility that BTC could reach this $200,000 psychological level in anticipation of the amount of new capital that could flow into BTC from these banks once the bill passes. 

BitMine’s Chairman, Tom Lee, also predicted during a CNBC interview that Bitcoin could reach between $200,000 and $250,000 this year, partly due to growing institutional adoption by Wall Street giants. Meanwhile, Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao said that a BTC rally to $200,000 is the “most obvious thing in the world” to him.

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $89,600, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

The Bitcoin price had a relatively rough trading period over the past week, as it hovered around the psychological $90,000 mark. The flagship cryptocurrency, which looked set for a return to six-figure valuation barely over a week ago, now seems to have lost all its bullish momentum.

Broadly speaking, these recent struggles put to rest questions around the “relief rallies” to the upside, and correlate more with the current bear market structure. However, the latest on-chain evaluation shows that the Bitcoin price woes could worsen from here on out.

Expert Explains Why $60,000 Is Possible For BTC Price

In a recent post on the X platform, Alphractal CEO and founder Joao Wedson said that the Bitcoin price could still have room to fall below the $60,000 level. This not-so-optimistic prediction is based on the number of days Bitcoin has traded at prices higher than today.

According to Wedson, there have been 355 days when the Bitcoin price has traded at levels higher than today. This figure was derived from the “Days Spent at a Profit” metric, which tracks the number of days in Bitcoin’s history where the market price was higher than the current price.

This indicator measures how much price action — in the past — has occurred above the current price level. From a historical standpoint, an increase in the number of “Days Spent at a Profit” tends to occur during bear cycles or extended periods of sideways movement, implying that different investor groups are holding BTC at a price higher than their cost bases.

As Wedson highlighted, the “Days Spent at a Profit” metric reached around 775 days as the Bitcoin price approached a bottom. Going by this historical context, the current level of this indicator (355 days) suggests that the flagship cryptocurrency is still a distance away from extreme levels often associated with bearish market bottoms.

Ultimately, this deduction means that the price of Bitcoin could still be at risk of an extended decline over the next 300 days. According to the Alphractal, this extended period of price decline could see BTC revisit $60,000, potentially triggering significant liquidations among retail investors and institutional players who entered the market post-ETF.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $89,900, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours. However, the market leader is currently down by over 5% on the weekly timeframe, while nearly 30% adrift its all-time high of $126,080.

Bitcoin’s push to $97,600 last week drew a burst of bullish options activity, but Glassnode argues the derivatives tape looked more like short-dated positioning than broad-based conviction. In a Jan. 23 thread, the on-chain analytics firm pointed to a split between front-end call demand and longer-dated risk pricing that stayed anchored in downside protection.

“Let’s deep dive into options market behavior during last week’s move to 97.6K, and how options metrics help gauge conviction behind the move,” Glassnode wrote. The core takeaway: upside flow showed up, but it didn’t meaningfully change how the market priced risk further out the curve.

What Bitcoin Traders Can Learn From Last Week’s Rally

Glassnode first focused on near-term skew. Around mid-January, BTC rose roughly 8% over a few days, and the 1-week 25-delta skew moved sharply toward neutral from “deep put territory.” That kind of front-end shift can look like a market flipping bullish—until you check whether the same repricing is happening in longer expiries.

“Careful though,” Glassnode warned. “Near-dated call demand is often misread as directional conviction.” The thread paired that point with flow data: the options volume put/call ratio dropped from 1 to 0.4, signaling a surge in call activity. But, as Glassnode framed it, the question is not whether calls were bought, but how short-dated that demand actually was.

The longer-dated picture was notably less enthusiastic. Glassnode said the 1-month 25-delta skew “only moved from 7% to 4% at the low,” staying in put asymmetry even as the 1-week skew fell from 8% to 1%. On the 3-month 25-delta skew, the shift was even smaller (less than 1.5%) and it “stayed firmly in put territory,” continuing to price asymmetric downside.

For Glassnode, that divergence matters because it separates “flow” from “risk pricing.” Upside participation can be real, but if the market does not reprice skew across maturities, it suggests traders are not extending that optimism into a higher-conviction, longer-horizon view.

The volatility tape reinforced the same message. “Layering in ATM implied volatility, we see vol being sold as price moved higher,” Glassnode wrote. “Gamma sellers monetized the rally. This is not the volatility behavior typically associated with sustained breakouts.”

That combination: front-end call demand alongside vol supply can align with tactical positioning rather than a regime change. It can also leave spot moves more vulnerable if follow-through buying does not materialize once short-dated structures roll off.

Glassnode closed with a checklist for what a cleaner breakout would look like: “An ideal breakout setup combines spot pressing key levels, skew pointing higher with conviction across maturities, and volatility being bid. Last week’s move didn’t meet those conditions.”

For traders watching whether BTC can revisit $97,600, the thread’s implication is straightforward: monitor whether longer-dated skew begins to lift out of put territory and whether implied volatility starts to get bid, not sold, as spot tests key levels again.

At press time, BTC traded at $89,297.

Michael Saylor says Strategy’s evolving capital-markets machine is starting to resemble a “central bank of Bitcoin,” positioning the company as a conduit between traditional money markets and the Bitcoin network. In an interview with Gatecast, the Strategy executive chairman argued the firm’s shift toward perpetual preferred equity and “digital credit” instruments is designed to fund continuous bitcoin accumulation while stripping out refinancing risk.

Saylor traced the company’s pivot to the COVID-era shock of 2020, when “the physical economy of the world came to a grinding halt and the financial system was turned upside down.” Facing what he framed as an existential decision, he said Strategy discovered Bitcoin during “the war on COVID and the war on currency,” and used it to “escape a pretty miserable existence and turned into something digital and modern and much better.”

Strategy Is Building A ‘Central Bank of Bitcoin’

That transformation now sits on a scale Saylor claims is often misunderstood. Addressing criticism that Strategy is simply levering up to buy more Bitcoin, he said the firm has raised roughly $44 billion over the past year and a half and characterized “most of that” as equity rather than debt. “There isn’t really leverage,” Saylor said. “Equity is capital that you have forever. We’re funneling that capital into the crypto economy. We’re buying Bitcoin.” He added that Strategy has acquired “about $48 billion worth of Bitcoin” across “like 88 different transactions,” purchasing “as soon as we raise the capital.”

When asked whether Strategy is still just a buyer or something closer to a “shadow central bank of Bitcoin” given its holdings, Saylor leaned into the analogy. “Bitcoin is digital capital. It is the world reserve capital network. It’s replaced gold as the global non-sovereign store of value for the human race,” he said. Then came the framing: “Banks normally buy credit. We actually sell credit. So what we’re doing is the reverse of commercial banking, retail banking. It is sort of like central banking. We are sort of like the central bank of Bitcoin.”

Saylor’s “central bank” claim hinges on a product stack meant to translate Bitcoin’s balance-sheet asset into yield-bearing instruments for investors who won’t hold BTC directly. He described STRC as “a currency that’s pegged to the dollar” and “backed […] with Bitcoin,” with proceeds recycled into BTC purchases. In his telling, that mechanism links “the Bitcoin economy” to “the traditional finance economy and to the money markets of the world.”

Michael Saylor: “We are sort of like the central bank of Bitcoin.” pic.twitter.com/IyZ9EHLAQn

— TFTC (@TFTC21) January 22, 2026

The more material shift, he argued, is Strategy’s progression away from maturity-driven debt toward perpetual structures. Saylor laid out a four-stage evolution: initial use of credit and leverage, a senior note secured by BTC collateral that the company later refinanced and vowed not to repeat, then non-recourse convertible bonds, an approach he said became constrained by market size and retail inaccessibility and finally “digital credit,” which he described as “an equity […]a perpetual preferred equity.”

In one of his clearest statements of intent, Saylor said Strategy’s priority is to prevent principal from ever coming due. “We don’t want to have leverage. We want to have amplification via equity. We never want the principal to come due. We’d rather pay a higher dividend forever,” he said. “I’d rather pay 10% forever than pay 5% for 5 years.” Strategy, he added, has “announced a $1.44 billion cash reserve for the dividends,” giving it “the option to not raise any capital in the capital markets for up to two years,” and in his view “effectively stripped the credit risk off of the business.”

Saylor also pitched liquidity as a differentiator. He said Strategy has raised $7 billion over the last nine months via these instruments and described an emerging market of about $8 billion outstanding. Where preferred stocks typically trade thinly, he argued Strategy’s “digital credit instruments were trading 30 million a day,” with “Stretch […] more than a hundred million a day,” which he framed as a step-change in market access.

The firm’s investor pitch, as Saylor described it, splits the world into capital and credit buyers. “Bitcoin is digital capital. The world will be built on digital capital. But the world will run on digital credit,” he said, arguing that products like Stretch can offer a money-market-like alternative “powered by digital capital” while sidestepping Bitcoin’s volatility.

At press time, BTC traded at $89,250.

Bitcoin’s price is fluctuating below the $90,000 mark as volatility increases across the entire cryptocurrency market. During the bearish price action, attention is now being shifted to the cautious signal from the Bitcoin Open Interest in BTC terms, which has remained below past all-time high in years.

Open Interest Tells A Different Story When Measured In BTC

Amid the ongoing volatile action of the crypto market, the derivatives market for Bitcoin is providing a more subdued message. This message is unfolding on the Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) in BTC terms as outlined in a recent research by Joao Wedson, a market expert and founder of the Alphractal analytics platform.

In the report shared on the X platform, the market expert highlighted that the open interest measured in BTC terms has failed to reach new all-time highs since 2022. The BTC-based perspective shows a more restricted usage of leverage over cycles, whereas dollar-denominated measures frequently climb in tandem with price.

On Thursday, the metric experienced a bounce, but Wedson stated that the upward move was mainly in USD-dominated open interest. This pattern suggests that traders are becoming more cautious in the market by allocating capital more carefully as opposed to putting it all into risky positions.

According to the expert, the trend simply suggests that speculation is present in the market and it’s currently expanding. However, the chart shows that the broader market is still far from any form of extreme or irrational euphoria. 

Not Enough Profit To Trigger A Bullish Recovery

BTC’s inability to produce another major rally is linked to the level of investors in profit. Darkfost stated that there are still not enough investors in profit to hope for a sustainable bullish recovery. Thus, it is crucial to understand that latent profits are not harmful to a market; it is quite the opposite.

When investors are most in profit, the situation is much more comfortable, which motivates them to hold. However, this only holds up to a certain point. Also, when the supply in profit surpasses 95% or even 100%, latest profits begin to impact the market and may trigger essential corrective phases.

The ongoing correction remained moderate with a drawdown to around 31%, but it was able to sharply reduce the percentage of supply in profit, suggesting very late entry by many investors. Currently, over 71% of BTC is in profit after dropping as low as 64%, a very concerning level that has typically been observed only when Bitcoin was entering a bear market. 

However, in Darkfost’s view, the market must reclaim above 75% supply in profit to regain a more stable structure. As long as it stays above this level, the supply in profit has historically been associated with positive periods, as shown in the chart. 

With the recent price rebound, the supply in profit saw a brief climb back to 75% before getting rejected. Meanwhile, many BTC investors possibly used this opportunity to exit at break-even or to cut their losses.

Crypto researcher Axel has provided insights into why the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana prices are still crashing. This comes as BTC continues to see a supply overhang, which threatens to put more downward pressure on crypto prices. 

Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana Prices Are Still Crashing

In a research report, Axel noted that anomalous exchange inflows accompanied the BTC breakdown below the $90,000 zone as sellers prepared in advance. The market is also still at risk of further selling pressure as the 1.0 level of the short-term holders’ SOPR is now acting as a resistance rather than support. As such, there is a possibility that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana prices will decline further. 

Further commenting on Bitcoin netflows into exchanges, Axel noted that between January 20 and 21, almost 17,000 BTC flowed into exchanges, coinciding with BTC dropping to as low as $87,000, while Ethereum and Solana prices also dropped. The crypto researcher explained that these anomalously high values followed a period of predominantly negative netflow in the first half of this month. 

In the context of the falling Bitcoin price, Axel stated that such a spike is more likely to reflect supply preparation than neutral transfers. In other words, the breakdown below $90,000 appears to be structural rather than emotional. Meanwhile, Bitcoin netflow returned to neutral levels yesterday, but the accumulated inflow still creates a supply overhang, which could lead to further declines in the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. 

Axel noted that a signal of improvement would be if netflow turns negative again amid rising prices, which could indicate that the overhang has cleared. However, with the short-term holders’ 7-day SMA SOPR below 0.996, the crypto researcher suggested that BTC faces increased selling pressure on every recovery as these holders look to sell at breakeven. He added that a reversal trigger could be confirmed if the SOPR breaks above 1.0 from below, with the 7-day SMA holding unity for three to five days to filter out false spikes after the selloff. 

Why A Break Above $100,000 Looks Unlikely For Now

In its latest research report, on-chain analytics platform Glassnode explained that a Bitcoin rally above $100,000 looks unlikely for now as the supply overhang persists. They noted how this overhang supply above $98,000 remains the dominant sell-side force capping short to mid-term rebounds. 

Alluding to the Unspent Realized Price Distribution metric, Glassnode noted that the recent BTC rally has partially filled the prior air gap between $93,000 and $98,000, driven by redistribution from top buyers into newer market participants. 

However, the unresolved supply overhang is expected to likely cap attempts above the $98,400 short-term holders’ cost basis and the $100,000 level. A meaningful and sustained acceleration in demand momentum is said to be required for a clean breakout above $100,000 to occur.

Technical analysis shared by crypto analyst CryptoBullet on X highlighted a familiar price action that suggests that Bitcoin’s current structure may be closely tracking a 2022 price fractal. 

Bitcoin’s price action in recent days has changed into a more fragile posture, with the cryptocurrency falling back below the psychological $90,000 level after failing to sustain higher ground above $97,000 on January 14.

How Bitcoin’s Current Structure Resembles The 2022 Fractal

According to CryptoBullet, Bitcoin’s present price action is closely following an interesting structure that it previously played out in 2022. Technical analysis on the daily candlestick timeframe chart posted by the analyst shows the earlier 2022 move as a transparent projection layered behind current price action, with a striking similarity in both rhythm and volatility. 

As it stands, Bitcoin has experienced a significant 28.7% pullback from its October 2025 peak and is now trading in a choppy consolidation, a behavior that closely matches the early stages of the 2022 downturn.

CryptoBullet noted, however, that there is an important distinction. During the 2022 decline, Bitcoin had already tested the 50-week moving average and the 200-day moving average at this stage of the cycle. In the current setup, Bitcoin’s price action is trading below those levels but has not yet made a direct test, and this means that the structure may still be incomplete.

What The 2022 Outcome Predicts For Bitcoin’s Next Move

The projection in the background of the chart shows Bitcoin making one more push higher over the coming month, briefly reclaiming levels above $100,000 before running into a strong resistance at the 50-week moving average.

If this scenario plays out, the move would resemble the final relief rally seen in 2022, where the price rallied into long-term resistance before rolling over. CryptoBullet noted that timing also supports this idea, noting that considering the 2022 top is lined up with the October 2025 top, there appears to be roughly one month of price action left for a final leg up. 

The projection is that Bitcoin pushes to at least $100,000 again sometime in February 2026. However, support must hold above $83,000 in order for this bullish portion of the setup to be valid.

Although the short-term projection is bullish, the broader implication of the 2022 fractal is bearish for the mid-term. According to the chart’s projected path, Bitcoin is shown rejecting at the 50-week moving average after a brief rally, followed by a sustained decline that eventually drags its price action below $71,500. 

This prediction is based on exactly what unfolded in 2022, when a final pump gave way to a deeper corrective phase. That said, fractals are guides, not guarantees, meaning price history may rhyme, but it does not always repeat itself exactly.

On Thursday, Senator Craig Bowser introduced a new piece of legislation aimed at creating a Strategic Bitcoin and cryptocurrency reserve for Kansas state. 

The proposal, filed as Bill 352, would permit the Kansas Public Employees Retirement System (KPERS) to allocate up to 10% of its total funds into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Kansas Bitcoin Bill 

Under the bill’s framework, KPERS would not be obligated to sell its Bitcoin ETF holdings if their value grows beyond the 10% allocation threshold, unless the board determines that doing so would better serve the interests of beneficiaries. 

If enacted, the legislation would also require the KPERS board to conduct an annual review of the investment program, with the results formally submitted to the governor for oversight and evaluation.

Kansas’ move follows a growing trend among US states exploring BTC as a strategic asset as the regulatory environment surrounding crypto has significantly shifted under President Donald Trump’s administration. 

US States Move Toward Crypto Reserves

Texas set an early benchmark last November when it became the first state to formally incorporate cryptocurrency into its treasury strategy by purchasing $10 million worth of Bitcoin. 

In North Dakota, lawmakers are considering BTC investments as a potential hedge against inflation. Oklahoma has also entered the conversation, with Senator Dusty Deevers introducing the Bitcoin Freedom Act.

Meanwhile, Tennessee introduced a new bill last week—HB1695—designed to establish its own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. West Virginia has put forward Senate Bill 143, which proposes allocating 10% of certain state funds toward a cryptocurrency reserve. 

Missouri has made notable progress as well, advancing House Bill 2080 to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Fund. That measure has already passed its second reading and is now moving forward for further consideration in the state House.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Crypto pundit Crypto Chase has explained how Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings is a net negative for BTC’s adoption, especially among large investors. The pundit also ruled out the possibility of capitulation on Michael Saylor’s part, even if the flagship crypto drops below their entry point. 

Why Saylor’s Strategy Bitcoin Holdings Puts BTC At Risk

In an X post, Crypto Chase opined that Strategy’s BTC holdings do more to deter institutions and high-net-worth individuals than to attract them. The pundit added that there really isn’t any full-scale capitulation below Saylor’s average entry price of $76,000, as he believes that Saylor and Strategy will hold until zero, except if the board forces them to do otherwise.  

This statement followed Strategy’s latest $2.13 billion Bitcoin purchase, which saw the company’s holdings cross the 700,000 BTC milestone. The company now holds 709,715 BTC, which it acquired for $53.92 billion at an average price of $75,979. Meanwhile, Crypto Chase also stated that if the company were to offload these coins, the Bitcoin price would go back to $3,000 or lower. 

The pundit warned that there are not even close to enough bids to handle such selling pressure. As such, he believes that Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings would have to be sold over the counter to the U.S. government or Trump to avoid a total collapse of the flagship crypto. However, Saylor has so far asserted that they have no intention of ever selling their BTC holdings. 

Crypto Chase also mentioned that fear among uneducated market participants could provide a good entry if the narrative is that Saylor and Strategy would be liquidated if BTC drops below their average entry price. The pundit reiterated that it is game over if that ever happened, though. He is also not confident Bitcoin will rise to new highs anytime soon, noting there is significant overhead and Total Cost of Ownership, with entry points above $100,000. 

From Another Crypto Pundit’s Point Of View

It is worth noting that Crypto Chase’s statement about Saylor’s Strategy and Bitcoin’s holdings was in response to crypto pundit Ansem’s point of view. In an X post, Ansem said he believes Bitcoin will find its place alongside gold and silver in portfolios and benefit from large, high-net-worth individuals and institutions adding small positions. He remarked that BTC, as a digital analog, is easier to transport across global borders and easier to transact with. 

Ansem also noted that Saylor and Strategy’s cost average is currently around $75,000 and that he believes that a drop below that level would be a full-scale capitulation into a generational buying opportunity. From a technical standpoint, the pundit does not think Bitcoin will trade below last cycle’s price peak of $69,000 in 2021.

Bitcoin’s April 2025 swing low around $73,000 has become the make-or-break line for 2026, according to veteran professional trader and commentator Nik Patel, who argues that a higher-timeframe break below that level would likely open the door to a prolonged grind in the mid-$50,000s.

In Part Three of his “2026 Outlook” published Jan. 21, Patel laid out a high-conviction call that Bitcoin prints fresh all-time highs in the first half of 2026, framing it as further evidence the market has shifted away from the clean, narrative-driven four-year cycle. “Bitcoin trades new all-time highs in H1 — the 4-year cycle is dead,” he wrote, summarizing his regime view as “higher for longer,” potentially stretching into 2027.

Why Bitcoin Must Hold $73,000 Or Risk A Slide

Patel’s core technical claim is simple: as long as Bitcoin does not close key higher timeframes below the April 2025 low, the broader structure remains intact and the base case is continuation higher. He acknowledged that he expected a sharper reversal earlier: “Timing-wise, I was wrong on my expectations for a more immediate reversal,” but stressed that price has continued to hold above the April lows “despite having every reason to break and close below.”

That resilience, in his view, matters more than moving averages or anchored references. “Since 2022, we have not made fresh lows on a weekly timeframe below the bottoms that preceded the next highs (or, more plainly, weekly structure in the most technical sense has remained bullish with higher-highs and higher-lows),” Patel wrote. “This has not changed and I place less weight on MAs, VWAPs etc. than I do on price itself, and whilst the $73k April lows that preceded the $126k all-time highs are protected, weekly structure is still bullish.”

His forecast leans heavily on a macro and positioning backdrop he describes as inconsistent with a deep-cycle crypto bear market. Patel cited “Goldilocks into reflation,” rising inflation breakevens, falling real rates, midterm dynamics, and bearish sentiment and positioning as part of the setup that makes a 2018- or 2022-style unwind less likely in his framework.

Patel’s downside map is unusually explicit for a discretionary macro-technical thesis. “If I’m wrong — and we close the higher timeframes below $73k — we likely trade mid-$50ks this year, consolidate there for many months and produce no new highs in 2026,” he wrote, outlining a scenario where a structural failure forces a wholesale reassessment.

He reiterated that the trigger is not an intraday wick but timeframe closes. In his year-ahead playbook, he described being “invalidated on a weekly close below $73k but with a view to re-entering on an immediate reclaim,” while “fully” cutting exposure if Bitcoin prints a monthly close below $73,000, in which case he would “prepare for mid-$50ks.”

Patel also pushed back on the idea that the drawdown from the highs represents a new, uniquely bearish regime. “Where many view the most recent move off the highs into $80k as a ‘structural shift unlike prior corrections’, I disagree and continue to view this as a ‘higher for longer’ regime within which we have these 30-40% corrections, range-bound price-action chewing through supply and subsequently continue higher,” he wrote.

He added that the correction “felt different” in part because it coincided with what he called “the largest liquidation event in crypto history,” alongside forced selling dynamics and long-term holder supply, yet it has still only produced a drawdown modestly larger than prior pullbacks in the broader uptrend.

Even so, Patel allowed for near-term turbulence. He said there is “a decent chance we sweep the November low in early Q1,” but maintained he “categorically” does not expect a higher-timeframe close below the April lows in the first half of the year. His base case remains new highs in H1 2026—“perhaps in late Q1 but likely in early Q2.”

At press time, BTC traded at $90,060.

Bitcoin’s role in the global financial system remains widely misunderstood, even at the highest levels of policy and finance. That disconnect surfaced during a major international forum, prompting a pointed clarification from a Coinbase executive. The moment centered on a fundamental question with growing relevance: what truly separates Bitcoin from central banks?

Bitcoin’s Structural Design Sets It Apart – Coinbase Executive

During the World Economic Forum in Davos, where global policymakers and financial leaders were debating the future of money and tokenization, Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, responded to remarks made by François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France, who argued that central banks deserve greater trust than Bitcoin because they operate under democratic mandates and institutional oversight.

Armstrong’s response focused on how Bitcoin is designed. Bitcoin operates as a decentralized protocol with no issuing authority, no governing committee, and no single entity capable of altering its monetary rules. Its supply is fixed, its issuance is algorithmic, and its operation depends on a distributed network of participants rather than institutional oversight. This design makes Bitcoin structurally independent in a way no central bank can replicate.

By contrast, central banks sit at the top of national monetary systems. They control currency issuance, influence interest rates, and adjust monetary policy in response to political and economic pressures. Even when described as “independent,” they remain tightly connected to governments and fiscal policy. Armstrong highlighted that this link introduces discretion, policy shifts, and long-term currency debasement through money creation—a vulnerability Bitcoin was explicitly built to avoid.

This distinction becomes especially relevant during periods of aggressive deficit spending. Because Bitcoin’s supply cannot be expanded, it functions as a constraint rather than a tool. In Armstrong’s view, this makes Bitcoin a direct counterweight to systems where new money can be introduced at will, gradually reducing purchasing power over time. That structural constraint is the foundation of Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge during periods of uncertainty.

Trust, Accountability, And Individual Choice

The exchange also exposed a deeper disagreement about how trust is formed. Villeroy de Galhau emphasized trust in central banks as institutions backed by legal authority and democratic systems. Armstrong countered by reframing trust as something derived from transparency and verifiability rather than institutional reputation. 

Armstrong further positioned Bitcoin as an accountability mechanism. Because its supply cannot be adjusted to accommodate government spending, it imposes discipline by design. In this sense, Bitcoin functions less as a policy tool and more as a constraint—similar to how gold historically limited monetary excess. This characteristic has driven its growing perception as a store of value during times of economic uncertainty.

Importantly, Armstrong did not frame the relationship between Bitcoin and fiat currencies as a zero-sum battle. Instead, he described it as a healthy competition that leaves the ultimate decision with individuals. Users can choose between systems: one based on institutional control and policy flexibility, and another based on fixed rules and decentralization.

Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the pivotal $90,000 price mark once again after a brief bounce, but volatility still lingers around the largest cryptocurrency asset. During the ongoing volatile landscape, investors appear to have found a new niche, and that is buying BTC at a significant and fast rate.

Large Bitcoin Holders Are Buying In The Noise

The ongoing market volatility may have significantly impacted the Bitcoin price direction, but this is not the same for investors’ sentiment and activity. In the current bearish state, BTC investors are now sending a clear bullish signal, especially as indicated in the activity of the largest holders.

Sentiment observed among BTC large holders has shifted toward buying once again. According to research shared by Santiment, a leading on-chain data analytics platform, whales and sharks continue to accumulate more BTC even as market volatility intensifies. 

During the ongoing bearish market, BTC’s price fell back to the $89,400 level, and assets like Silver and Gold experienced a steady spike. Instead of being shaken out by the pullback, these high-net-worth investors are persistently building positions, indicating a great level of confidence beneath the surface. 

When these key investors start to buy BTC at a rapid rate again while the broader market signals caution, it is often viewed as a strategic move or repositioning ahead of a potential price spike. This kind of behavior is typically seen during transitional phases.

Data shows that wallet addresses holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have purchased an additional +36,322 BTC, representing an over 0.27% rise in the past 9 days. Should this renewed buying pressure from big investors continue, it is likely to play a role in determining BTC’s next major move as it reshapes its supply and price dynamics.

While whale investors steadily add to their positions, wallet addresses holding 0.01 BTC have been dumping to the noise. This group, regarded as shrimp holders, has offloaded over 132 BTC within the same timeframe, indicating a -0.28% drop.

Santiment highlighted that it is considered an optimal condition for a crypto breakout when smart money accumulates, and retailers dump. In the absence of a geopolitical issue, this pattern continues to demonstrate a long-term bullish divergence.

Risk Around BTC Is Becoming High

Following the bearish reaction on Wednesday, the Bitcoin Risk Index metric experienced a surge, reaching the 21 level and hovering just below the High Risk zone at level 25. This uptick suggests that the continuation of the consolidation phase is highly likely and will be bolstered by the massive high-risk environment seen over the past few months.

Despite the surge, the market is still technically in a low-risk environment, and buyers are struggling to hold the pivotal support level at $89,200. At this level, the market is presented with two different scenarios.

The first, which is the bullish scenario, tells that BTC could undergo a clear push toward $94,800 and possibly $99,000 if $89,200 support holds in the short term. Meanwhile, in the bearish scenario, a continued consolidation below the support level driven by sellers would cause a drop to $84,500, marking the next line of defense for buyers.

BlackRock is enhancing Bitcoin investment by creating new avenues for institutional capital to access the asset within the US financial system. Instead of relying on traditional crypto markets, the firm channels Bitcoin-linked returns through the insurance sector. Through its partnership with Delaware Life Insurance Company, this approach integrates BTC exposure into a fixed index annuity framework, allowing insurers and policyholders to benefit from Bitcoin-linked returns without direct ownership of the asset.

How BlackRock Is Powering Bitcoin Exposure In Insurance

BlackRock is enabling Bitcoin exposure for a US insurance company by translating the volatile asset into a structure that fits the strict risk requirements of insurance products. In a statement on Tuesday, Delaware Life confirmed it has added the BlackRock US Equity Balanced Risk 12% Index to its fixed index annuity portfolio, formalizing the integration. This index connects digital assets with traditional insurance frameworks in a controlled way, making Bitcoin participation feasible within a risk-managed product.

Instead of holding BTC directly, the index combines US equity exposure through the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF with Bitcoin exposure delivered via the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT). IBIT, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF launched in January 2024, has grown to nearly $76 billion in assets under management, establishing it as the primary institutional gateway for BTC exposure in the US.

Risk management is central to the index’s design. A 12% volatility target dynamically adjusts allocations to limit downside risk rather than pursue aggressive upside. This feature is essential for fixed index annuities, which are structured around principal protection.

As a result, policyholders are insulated from direct losses on their initial investment while still participating in index-linked returns influenced by both equity and BTC performance. BlackRock’s role extends beyond access, supplying the ETF infrastructure and volatility-controlled framework that allows Bitcoin exposure to function within an insurance balance sheet.

Why This Matters For Insurance And BTC Adoption

For Delaware Life, a subsidiary of Group 1001 Insurance Holdings, the partnership marks the first instance of a US insurer embedding Bitcoin exposure within a fixed index annuity. With Group 1001 overseeing approximately $76.4 billion in assets, the move reflects a strategic product expansion by a major insurance platform rather than an experimental initiative. Company leadership has positioned the offering as a response to growing demand from financial professionals seeking modern portfolio tools that remain compatible with retirement product risk constraints.

From BlackRock’s standpoint, the structure expands Bitcoin’s presence in long-term savings and insurance markets without altering the conservative expectations of those products. By framing BTC as a return component within a tightly governed risk framework, BlackRock enables institutional adoption that aligns with regulatory standards, insurer capital requirements, and retirement planning logic. In effect, Bitcoin exposure is being packaged in a form insurers already understand and can distribute, quietly extending its reach into one of the most risk-controlled areas of finance.

Bitcoin’s Tuesday slide to $87,895 has revived a familiar market habit: attaching a single, clean narrative to messy positioning, flows, and reflexive price action. This time, the culprit making the rounds is quantum computing, a potentially “existential threat” that’s supposedly explaining Bitcoin’s underperformance versus gold which has printed a new all-time high at $4,888.

The quantum angle picked up steam after a post by Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures. Carter wrote: “Bitcoin’s “mysterious” underperformance (due to quantum) is the only story that matters this year. The market is speaking the devs aren’t listening,” and shared a tweet about the news that Wall Street strategist Christopher Wood removed a 10% Bitcoin allocation from a model portfolio due to concerns that quantum computing could undermine Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.

Is Bitcoin Falling On Quantum Fears?

Not everyone buying the premise is buying the price-action conclusion. Well-known Bitcoin advocate Vijay Boyapati, while acknowledging quantum computing as a real issue, pushed back on using it as the primary explanation for why Bitcoin is stalling and selling off.

“While I agree QC is a legitimate concern… I think the price stalling invites narratives to fill the explanatory void when, imo, the real explanation is really just the unlocking of an enormous supply once we hit a magic number for a lot of whales (100k),” Boyapati wrote. “Prices increasing are like waves hitting a glacier – eventually a chunk of supply breaks off and crashes onto the order books.”

Boyapati’s broader point is that market structure can do plenty of damage on its own once a big level triggers distribution and confidence cracks.

“Given the path dependent nature and feedback loops involved in a bull run sustained on narratives… the price stalling then causes people to doubt that Bitcoin will continue to go up and this then results in more selling until you get an equilibrium of supply and demand at some lower price point,” he added. “This is what happens during Bitcoin bear markets – and I think we’re in one.”

James Check, a prominent Bitcoin on-chain analyst, co-founder of Check on Chain, and former Lead Analyst at Glassnode, largely sided with the view that quantum risk may be a background constraint on some capital, but not the dominant driver of the gold-versus-Bitcoin divergence.

“QC keeps some capital away, but this argument that gold is up and Bitcoin is down because of it just isn’t it,” he wrote. “Gold has a bid because sovereigns are buying it in place of treasuries. The trend has been in place since 2008, and accelerates after Feb-22.”

He also highlighted the supply-side pressure Bitcoin has already absorbed. “Bitcoin saw sell-side from HODLers in 2025 which would have killed every prior bull thrice over, and then once more,” Checkmate said. The policy takeaway, in his view, is practical but limited: quantum preparedness matters, but attributing every downturn to it doesn’t help traders understand what’s actually clearing the market.

In a short market update posted via Checkmate’s analytics brand Checkonchain, the immediate trigger for the move was described in leverage terms rather than existential risk. Bitcoin “sold back down into the high $80ks,” with “the bears taking a bunch of leveraged long traders out to the woodshed,” the note said, estimating that around $260 million in leveraged long exposure was wiped.

Technically, the desk framed the structure as still resembling a bear flag, with a “clear supply air-pocket” between $70,000 and $81,000, language that points to thin bid support if sellers regain control.

At press time, BTC traded at $88,890.