A widely followed early Bitcoin investor, known as NoLimit on X, has released long-term price targets for top crypto assets like XRP and Bitcoin through 2029. His projections come as Bitcoin trades at $92,370 and XRP sits at $2.09, offering a multi-year outlook amid growing expectations for the next major crypto cycle.
Bitcoin appears to be weakening a crucial resistance mark, signaling that a momentous breakout to higher price levels is not far-fetched. Bitcoin trades near $91,000, down less than 2% over the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin is testing a key Fibonacci level as momentum shifts, with major resistance zones ahead. Bitcoin currently trades for $92,415, showing mild weakness over the past day as the market digests recent volatility.
The prominent equity research firm Wolfe Research finds the current levels at which Bitcoin trades as a favorable entry point. Analysts at Wolfe said in a Thursday note to investors that now is the best time to buy the crypto dip.
Bitcoin is testing resistance on the daily Ichimoku Cloud while liquidation data shows heavy pressure on short sellers during its latest rebound. Bitcoin is maintaining a strong upward bias following a fresh intraday advance, trading near the upper end of its 24-hour range.
This Binance stablecoin indicator has just flashed a major buy signal for Bitcoin, even as its price corrects further on Monday. CryptoQuant data drew the crypto community's attention to this historically bullish event in a December 1 post.
Market veteran Peter Brandt has suggested that Bitcoin could correct by as much as 75%, citing historical data. His recent commentary comes on the back of the latest Bitcoin crash below $90,000 on Dec.
Bitcoin nears historical support as veteran analyst Peter Brandt warns prices could slide toward lower channel levels. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $86,032, marking a 0.7% decline over the past seven days.
BitMEX co-founder and former CEO Arthur Hayes remains unmoved in his $250,000 Bitcoin price projection, highlighting the catalysts for this rally. It is barely 33 days to the end of the year, yet Hayes is still insistent on a 170% Bitcoin rally to a new all-time high of $250,000.
Bitcoin is back in rally mode as expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut surge to their highest level yet this month. Specifically, traders are now pricing in up to an 87% chance of a rate cut.
A well-known commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence says there's a chance Bitcoin could collapse 45% from here to its yearly pivot. Notably, Bitcoin (BTC) has bounced over the past week, but the market still shows signs of stress from a longer timeframe.
Bitcoin has recently recovered an important psychological level, but analysts insist that the market remains in a delicate position. Bitcoin (BTC) regained momentum on Nov.
The recent Bitcoin rebound has revealed the first resistance the crypto asset must reclaim before any sustained bullish continuation. Bitcoin is staging a comeback after bears exposed it to the $80,000 support zone.
The current Bitcoin price action shows striking similarities to the 2021 market cycle, as the asset rallies back to $91K. In a weekly chart shared on X, market watcher Crypto Rover highlighted nearly identical movements across trendlines and channel boundaries, drawing parallels between the past and present Bitcoin cycles.
Bitcoin Magazine
Bitcoin Price Prediction Markets Are Flashing a Signal
Bitcoin Price Prediction Markets have become an emerging tool for gauging sentiment and price expectations in real time. Traders on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi wager on Bitcoin’s future price outcomes, producing aggregated odds that reflect where market participants believe BTC is heading. As trading volumes expand and odds shift with volatility, these prediction markets are gaining credibility as a forward-looking sentiment gauge for the Bitcoin economy.
In early October, traders on Polymarket were betting that BTC would close 2025 around $144,000, but as volatility picked up and BTC dipped, that forecast has since slipped closer to $129,000. These odds update in real time, meaning they reflect the collective positioning and sentiment of thousands of participants and millions of dollars.
By tracking the ratio between BTC’s spot price and the predicted year-end price, clear sentiment trends begin to emerge. When this ratio spikes, meaning the spot price trades well below the market’s forecast, it often reflects a period of excessive fear or undervaluation. Conversely, when BTC trades close to the predicted price, the market tends to be overheated and nearer to local peaks.
Normalizing this data to account for how prediction volatility narrows as the year progresses gives an even clearer signal. The top percentile of days, where the ratio shows the widest gap between prediction and spot, has historically aligned with market lows, and vice-versa for the lowest percentile of days aligning with local highs.
Despite the impressive 91% accuracy figure often cited by Polymarket, deeper analysis shows that this number is inflated by markets with extreme odds — scenarios like “Bitcoin to hit $250,000 by year-end,” which overwhelmingly resolve to “no.” Removing these outliers gives a more realistic accuracy rate closer to 71% for BTC-related prediction markets, still notable but far from predictive certainty.
Interestingly, when comparing the standardized ratio of prediction-market expectations to BTC’s actual price, the data moves inversely to the Fear and Greed Index. When fear dominates, the ratio signals that traders are undervaluing Bitcoin, while periods of extreme greed coincide with markets pricing BTC near or above forecast levels. This overlap suggests that prediction markets, much like sentiment gauges, can help identify when emotions in the market have swung too far in one direction.
Used alone, prediction markets don’t provide a consistent trading edge — their crowd-based probabilities are efficient but not omniscient. However, when combined with sentiment indicators like the Fear and Greed Index or on-chain data, they can highlight asymmetry in market perception.
Historically, strategies that accumulate BTC during extreme fear and reduce exposure during euphoria have outperformed a simple buy-and-hold approach. When prediction markets align with those same fear periods, the data strengthens the case for opportunistic accumulation.
Prediction markets are not crystal balls, but they reflect the aggregated conviction of thousands of informed participants putting real money on the line. While not perfectly accurate, their probabilities track human sentiment remarkably well. When these odds diverge sharply from spot price — especially in periods of widespread fear — they may offer a data-driven contrarian signal worth paying attention to.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
This post Bitcoin Price Prediction Markets Are Flashing a Signal first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.
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