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Fool Me Once… You Can’t Get Fooled Again: America Has Seen This Move Before

1 December 2025 at 06:40
12/1/25
Common-Sense Notes // By Idris B. Odunewu
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In 2002, President George W. Bush tried to recite an old proverb: “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.” What emerged instead was: “Fool me once, shame on… shame on you. Fool me… you can’t get fooled again” (see video).

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Peace Plan Presented by the U.S. to Ukraine Reflects Inexperienced, Unrealistic Handling of a Delicate Situation

25 November 2025 at 06:41
11/25/25
AMATEUR HOUR
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As Russian bombs continued to pound Ukraine, a different conflict has blown up over plans to end that almost four-year-long war. The Trump administration on Nov. 20, 2025, formally presented Ukraine with a 28-point proposal to end the war, and President Donald Trump announced the country had until Thanksgiving to sign it. But Ukraine and its European and U.S.

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U.S. Can’t Overcome Manufacturing Gap with China

25 November 2025 at 06:40
11/11/25
MANUFACTURING
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The United States should not kid itself. It will not recover its manufacturing position from China in any foreseeable future.

According to World Bank data, in 2024 the US’s GDP of US$29.2 trillion was 60 percent larger than China’s US$18.7 trillion. But China’s manufacturing sector, worth US$4.7 trillion and representing 25 percent of the country’s GDP, was 60 percent larger than the US’s, worth US$2.9 trillion and representing 10 percent of GDP. Simply put, the economic calculus is daunting.

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G20 Johannesburg Endorses Critical Minerals Framework

25 November 2025 at 06:38
11/25/25
CRITICAL MINERALS
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The 2025 G20 Summit was held in Johannesburg on 22–23 November 2025. The United States (US) abstained from participating in the summit due to its diplomatic rift with the host, South Africa. President Xi Jinping also did not attend the summit, and Premier Li Qiang represented China. Russian President Vladimir Putin also did not participate in the summit. However, this did not dampen the spirit of the deliberations, and at the end of the summit, G20 members adopted the declaration by consensus.

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Economic Deterrence in a China Contingency

21 November 2025 at 06:44
11/21/25
CHINA WATCH
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Deterring China from launching an attack on Taiwan is a central focus of U.S. and allied security planning. This planning encompasses creation and revision of military strategies, the establishment of partnerships with like-minded nations, and the gaming and simulation of conflict scenarios. Restrictive economic measures, such as sanctions, are also part of the deterrence toolkit. However, the timing, effectiveness, and desirability of these measures remain uncertain.

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Working with Japan and Korea to Compete with China on AI

20 November 2025 at 06:44
11/20/25
CHINA WATCH
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As President Trump traveled to the Indo-Pacific in late October for his first summit with new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae and the APEC Summit hosted by President Lee Jae-myung in South Korea, the U.S.

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Even Out of China’s Hands, Mines Still Rely on Its Equipment

14 November 2025 at 06:38
11/14/25
CRITICAL MINERALS
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The landmark critical minerals agreement between Australia and the United States is vital to both nations’ security and sovereignty. Like AUKUS, it is about competing with China.

But to enable it we now need also to look beyond building mines and processing. This is because the agreement signed carries an inherent vulnerability. The very partnership designed to reduce China’s coercive leverage is increasingly relying on Chinese technology to give effect to its objectives.

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Cold War Arms-Control Pioneers Perhaps Weren’t Peacemakers We Thought They Were

11 November 2025 at 06:38
11/11/25
ARMS RACE
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Keeping the peace in the Cold War was a matter of MAD, or mutually assured destruction, with both the U.S. and Soviet Union racing to develop and amass ever more deadly weapons to keep the other at bay and maintain an uneasy status quo.

The problem, according to Benjamin Wilson, was the chief proponents of that early brand of arms control, an elite group of science advisers, “wore a progressive face” but ended up “protecting existing structures and domestic arrangements, foreclosing the possibility of more radical transformations.”

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Analysis: Trump's Proposed Tariff Rebate Would Costs Twice as Much as Tariffs

10 November 2025 at 06:44
11/10/25
TARRIFS
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President Donald Trump has again floated the idea of sending Americans $2,000 from tariff revenue, but a new analysis suggests the import taxes won’t bring in enough money to cover the checks.

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Supreme Court Case on IEEPA Tariffs: Facts Should Matter

10 November 2025 at 06:44
11/10/25
TARRIFS
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Fine points of the law are likely to dominate legal arguments in the case before the Supreme Court challenging the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs. Facts, however, matter and should play an important, even dominant, role.

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U.S. and Australia Deepen Critical-Minerals Engagement to Counter China

5 November 2025 at 06:34
11/5/25
CRITICAL MINERALS
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Engagement between Australia and the United States on critical minerals has matured from technical cooperation into a strategic partnership, aligning resource security with clean energy and defense priorities. Both governments recognize the urgency of diversifying supply chains as China entrenches its dominance across critical mineral extraction and processing. US policy has so far delivered strong domestic signals and backed its producers, but outcomes of its recent allied contributions remain to be seen.

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China, the United States, and a Critical Chokepoint on Minerals

21 October 2025 at 07:46
10/20/25
CRITICAL MINERALS
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To borrow the words of my colleague, CFR Senior Fellow Heidi Crebo-Rediker, in the pages of Foreign Affairs, critical minerals today are “America’s most dangerous dependence.”

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Russian Government to Track Crypto Transactions With Help From Anti-Drug Organization

4 November 2021 at 14:30
Russian Government to Track Crypto Transactions With Help From Anti-Drug Organization

Russian institutions have responded to a call from а public movement for joint efforts to identify cryptocurrency transfers related to drug trade. The anti-drug organization, Stopnarkotik, recently asked the interior ministry and the central bank to investigate alleged connections between U.S.-sanctioned crypto exchange Suex and a darknet market operating in the region.

Russian Authorities Respond to Stopnarkotik’s Request for Action Against Drug Trade

The Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation (MVD) and Bank of Russia have agreed to cooperate with the All-Russian Public Movement Stopnarkotik on identifying financial flows involving cryptocurrencies obtained as a result of drug sales. The Russian online news portal Lenta.ru reported on the agreement, quoting a letter from a high-ranking MVD official.

The letter signed by Major General Andrei Yanishevsky, head of the Drug Control Department at the Interior Ministry, has been issued after a working meeting with representatives of the anti-drug organization. It comes in response to Stopnarkotik’s call for the two institutions to carry out an investigation focused on Suex, a Russia-based OTC crypto broker, and its links to other companies and banks.

In September, the U.S. Treasury Department blacklisted the Czech-registered entity Suex OTC s.r.o. which operates out of physical offices in Moscow and Saint Petersburg. The crypto platform is suspected of processing hundreds of millions of dollars in coin transactions related to scams, ransomware attacks, darknet markets, and the infamous Russian BTC-e exchange.

Since launching in 2018, Suex is believed to have received over $481 million in BTC alone. Close to $13 million came from ransomware operators such as Ryuk, Conti, and Maze, over $24 million was sent by crypto scams like Finiko, $20 million came from mixers, and another $20 million from darknet markets such as the Russia-targeting Hydra, blockchain forensics firm Chainalysis detailed in a report.

In its request to the Russian authorities, following the announcement of the U.S. sanctions, Stopnarkotik noted that Suex had been “involved in money laundering for the largest drug-selling platform.” The organization pointed out that the market’s drug trafficking in the Russian Federation amounts to an estimated $1.5 billion a year or more.

It also mentioned the name of one of Suex’s co-founders and highlighted its alleged connections with other crypto companies and financial institutions such as Exmo, a major digital asset exchange in Eastern Europe, financial services company Qiwi, a leading payment provider in Russia and the CIS countries, as well as the Ukraine-based Concord Bank.

Stopnarkotik asked Bank of Russia to provide its assessment on the matter, check if the operations of Suex and other entities are being conducted in accordance with the law in Russia, and consider blocking Russian payments to a Ukrainian organization.

“We received a response from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Central Bank. We also had a personal meeting with the Ministry of Internal Affairs so that they had an understanding of how we receive information, including about money laundering,” the movement’s chairman, Sergei Polozov, has been quoted as saying. He added that the Russian Interior Ministry is ready to accept Stopnarkotik’s data and work together with the organization.

Do you expect the cooperation between Stopnarkotik and Russian government institutions to develop further? Tell us in the comments section below.

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