The Bitcoin price volatility is once again drawing attention to MicroStrategy, the company whose strategy has become a major market reference point, with billions in accumulated BTC and a track record of aggressive buying during downturns. As traders search for stability in a shaky market, Strategy’s stance is being watched closely for what it might signal about the next phase of BTC’s trend.

Why MicroStrategy’s Next Move Could Redirect Market Momentum

Bitcoin’s recent volatility has put MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of BTC, in the limelight. Walter Bloomberg has revealed on X that analysts are watching closely to see if the company could influence the cryptocurrency’s price if it sells some of its holdings.

According to JPMorgan, Strategy can avoid forced sales as long as its enterprise value-to-BTC holdings ratio stays above 1.0, which currently stands at 1.13 BTC. However, analysts continue to debunk these claims, accusing JPMorgan of spreading misinformation about market manipulation and the company.

Walter stated that if the ratio remains above this level, BTC markets may stabilize and ease recent market pressure. Due to the market pressure, the firm has slowed its BTC purchases, adding 9,062 BTC last month compared to 134,480 BTC a year ago, reflecting a more cautious accumulation approach amid a broader crypto downturn. Its stock has dropped roughly 42% over the past three months.

Additionally, challenges include the potential exclusion from MSCI indices, which could trigger $8.8 billion in passive fund outflows if index funds are forced to divest. However, MicroStrategy holds a $1.4 billion reserve for dividends and interest, helping it avoid selling its BTC even if the price falls further. In the meantime, there is no proof that MicroStrategy is in danger of liquidation.

How Institutional Behavior Builds A Higher Floor For Bitcoin

In a market speculation, Bitcoin is currently experiencing one of the most significant capital migrations in its history, fueled by institutional adoption. Analyst Matthew noted that the current BTC market cycle from 2022 to 2025 has already absorbed an unprecedented amount of new capital, surpassing all previous BTC cycles. This growth is a reflection of the market’s maturity and the ecosystem’s innovative approach to liquidity through regulated instruments.

Furthermore, the network has incorporated more than $732 billion in fresh capital in the current cycle, surpassing the $388 billion that was injected during the 2018 to 2022 cycle. At that time, the surge helped push BTC market capitalization to an all-time high record of $1.1 trillion, a metric that indicates a much higher aggregate cost base for new institutional investors.

Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Traders Fear A Repeat Of July 2024’s Crash Next Week

Meanwhile, the total settlement volume in the decentralized BTC protocol was approximately $6.9 trillion in just 90 days. Despite this, the number of active on-chain entities dropped from 240,000 to 170,000 per day, which is a reflection of liquidity migration of capital flows into spot ETFs.

Market expert Shanaka recently explained how a historical event is unfolding with MicroStrategy and its Bitcoin strategy. This comes as the company faces a negative valuation from Wall Street while MSCI considers whether to remove MSTR from its indices. 

MicroStrategy’s Market Cap Drops Below the Value Of Bitcoin Holdings

In an X post, Shanaka noted that MicroStrategy, which is the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, is now worth less than its BTC holdings. The company currently holds 650,000 BTC, valued at around $60 billion, while the MSTR stock has a market cap of $55 billion. The expert noted that Wall Street is valuing the company at a negative based on this. 

He further remarked that this is the sustained NAV inversion since MicroStrategy began the Bitcoin model in 2020. Shanaka noted that the company has created a $1.44 billion emergency reserve to pay dividends. This came after the CEO Phong Le admitted that they might have to sell BTC to fund dividend payments if the mNAV drops below 1. 

MicroStrategy’s woes could deepen as MSCI will decide by January whether to expel the company from global stock indices. MSCI is considering whether companies that hold Bitcoin should be regarded as funds or trusts rather than as companies. JPMorgan estimates the company could see $8.8 billion in outflows if other index providers make a similar move.

Shanaka described the math as “merciless,” noting that MicroStrategy has $8.2 billion in debt, $7.8 billion in preferred stock, and $16 billion in total obligations against a $45.7 billion shell. Meanwhile, the company currently holds its BTC at an average cost of $74,436, which the expert noted is 15% above breakeven. As such, he remarked that one sustained drop erases every gain since 2020. 

Shanaka stated that MicroStrategy’s current situation is not just about one company but about whether corporations can hold sound money without being destroyed by the very system they sought to escape. He added that the largest experiment in corporate Bitcoin adoption is breaking in real time. 

Saylor Confirms Talks With MSCI Over Potential Exclusion

According to a Reuters report, Michael Saylor confirmed that MicroStrategy is in talks with MSCI over a potential exclusion from their indices. MSCI is expected to decide by January 15 whether to remove digital-asset treasury companies that buy Bitcoin and other crypto assets, amid concerns that they are classified as investment funds.  

Saylor opined that MicroStrategy’s potential exclusion from MSCI indices won’t make any difference. He explained that his company is currently leveraged by a multiple of 1.11 and could survive a 95% Bitcoin crash. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that Phong Le has stated that it is unlikely they will sell any BTC over the next three years following the creation of the USD reserves, which should be sufficient for dividend payments during this period.

Strategy CEO Phong Le has revealed the instance in which his company may be forced to sell its Bitcoin holdings. This comes amid concerns about the MSTR stock crash, which puts the company at risk of seeing its mNAV drop below 1. 

Strategy CEO Reveals When They Will Sell Bitcoin

During an interview on the ‘What Bitcoin Did’ podcast, the Strategy CEO said they could sell Bitcoin to fund dividend payments on their preferred shares if the mNAV is trading below 1. He alluded to the BTC yield, which is their primary KPI, and that under 1x mNAV, it is more “creative” to sell their BTC holdings to pay the dividends. 

The Strategy CEO explained that they typically raise capital when their mNAV is above 1 to fulfill their obligations, even when it is below 1. He alluded to the 2022 crypto winter when they bought back their Bitcoin-backed loans as proof that they had prepared in advance for such market conditions. However, when they are unable to raise capital, Phong Le stated that they will have no option but to sell their BTC holdings. 

Strategy data shows that their mNAV is currently at 1.19. Meanwhile, the company currently holds 649,870 BTC, worth around $55 billion. With the MSTR stock on a downtrend, Michael Saylor’s company still faces the risk of seeing its mNAV fall below 1 for a sustained period. TradingView data shows that the stock is now down over 40% year-to-date (YTD) from a 2025 high of around $455. 

There were recently rumors that Strategy supposedly sold some of its Bitcoin holdings, which Saylor quickly denied. The company then went on to make one of its largest purchases this year, buying 8,178 for $836 million. This formed part of the proceeds from the company’s STRE offering. 

Saylor Teases Another Bitcoin Purchase

In an X post, Michael Saylor teased another Bitcoin purchase from Strategy. He posted the company’s BTC portfolio tracker with the caption, “What if we start adding green dots?” It is worth noting that these conventional Sunday posts have usually preceded a BTC purchase announcement by the company the following day. 

Based on this, Strategy likely bought more Bitcoin between November 24 and 30 last week. This comes amid the Bitcoin downtrend, with the flagship crypto again dropping below the psychological $90,000 level. Besides the BTC crash, the possibility of an exclusion from MSCI indices is another factor that paints a bearish picture for Saylor’s company. The MSCI will decide by January next year whether treasury companies like Strategy should remain in their indices. 

At the time of writing, the BTC price is trading at around $86,000, down over 5% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.