Poland’s efforts to align its crypto market with the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets framework have hit a major political roadblock after lawmakers failed to override a presidential veto on a sweeping digital-asset bill.

This leaves the country as the last EU member without a national MiCA-style regime.

According to a Bloomberg report, the vote was held in the lower house of parliament on Friday, falling short of the three-fifths majority required to overturn President Karol Nawrocki’s decision to reject the legislation.

The outcome halts Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s push to place Poland’s crypto sector under tight regulatory control and forces the government to restart the legislative process from scratch.

Tusk Flags Crypto as National Security Threat Amid Russia Sabotage Claims

Tusk had framed the bill as a national security measure in the days leading up to the vote.

Addressing parliament, he said the unregulated crypto market had become a conduit for money laundering and foreign interference, including activity linked to Russia and Belarus.

He told lawmakers that Polish authorities had identified “several hundred” foreign entities operating in the domestic crypto market and warned that Russian intelligence and organized crime groups were exploiting digital assets for covert financing.

Government officials have tied those concerns to recent security incidents.

Last month, Warsaw blamed Russia for a blast on a key railway route used for supply traffic to Ukraine, an allegation Moscow dismissed.

Polish security services have also cited cases of underground groups allegedly paid in cryptocurrencies to carry out sabotage activities inside the country.

The veto has deepened an already sharp political confrontation between Nawrocki, a nationalist conservative, and Tusk’s pro-European coalition.

The president rejected the bill earlier this month, arguing that it went far beyond EU requirements and threatened civil liberties, property rights, and the stability of the state.

The blocked law would have implemented MiCA-style rules in Poland, introducing licensing for crypto-asset service providers, investor protection standards, stablecoin reserve requirements, market abuse bans, and strict anti-money laundering controls.

It also proposed granting authorities the power to block crypto-related websites through administrative orders, a provision the president described as opaque and vulnerable to abuse.

Political Tensions Rise After Poland Blocks Sweeping Crypto Oversight Bill

Nawrocki also criticized the scale of the bill, which exceeded 100 pages, contrasting it with far shorter implementing laws in neighboring Czechia and Slovakia.

He warned that heavy supervisory fees and added domestic restrictions would drive Polish crypto firms to register in other EU countries, costing Poland tax revenue and talent.

His chief of staff, Zbigniew Bogucki, said on Friday that the president is open to regulation as long as future proposals are not excessively restrictive.

The failure to override the veto leaves crypto companies operating in Poland without a clear national legal framework ahead of the EU’s July 1, 2026, MiCA compliance deadline.

The political dispute has increasingly drawn in industry players.

Nawrocki has portrayed himself as a defender of the crypto sector and was endorsed before his election by Kristi Noem, a senior U.S. official, at a conference in southeast Poland sponsored by trading platform Zondacrypto.

The exchange later stated that it accepts no Russian clients and fully complies with anti-money laundering rules.

Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski added another dimension to the dispute on Friday, saying on radio RMF FM that the crypto industry sponsors figures across the right wing of Polish politics, explaining the sharp resistance to tighter oversight.

The veto follows months of turbulence around crypto regulation in Poland. In September, lawmakers had initially passed the bill, triggering strong backlash from industry leaders who warned that Poland’s version of MiCA amounted to overregulation.

Zondacrypto’s chief executive at the time described it as a “step backwards” that risked criminalizing core blockchain development activity.

The post Poland Stalls MiCA-Style Crypto Rules as Lawmakers Fail to Override Presidential Veto appeared first on Cryptonews.

Poland’s president has blocked a sweeping set of rules for the country’s crypto sector, dealing a blow to the government’s push for tighter oversight.

Karol Nawrocki vetoed the Crypto-Asset Market Act on Monday, arguing that its provisions “genuinely threaten the freedoms of Poles, their property, and the stability of the state,” according to a statement from the presidential office.

The move immediately split opinion in Warsaw, with crypto supporters applauding the decision and senior officials accusing the president of opening the door to disorder.

Government Pushes Tough Oversight for Poland’s Crypto Market

Introduced in June, the bill sought to place Poland’s digital-asset industry under strict supervisory control.

Supporters inside government said the measures were needed to protect consumers from fraud and abusive practices.

However, critics, including opposition lawmaker Tomasz Mentzen, had predicted that the president would refuse to sign it after it cleared parliament, describing the draft as a blunt instrument that punished legitimate firms alongside bad actors.

The president’s office highlighted several flashpoints. One was a clause that would give authorities wide powers to block websites linked to crypto activity.

“Domain-blocking laws are opaque and can lead to abuse,” the statement said, warning that such tools risk being used beyond their original purpose.

Nawrocki added that the legislation was so dense that it undermined transparency, particularly when set against leaner frameworks in neighboring Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary.

Overly tight rules, he added, would simply drive companies, and tax revenues, to more welcoming jurisdictions such as Lithuania and Malta.

The president also pointed to high oversight fees baked into the bill, arguing they would deter startups while favoring large foreign firms and banks.

“This is a reversal of logic, killing off a competitive market and a serious threat to innovation,” he said.

Polish Ministers Slam President’s Crypto Veto

Meanwhile, members of the government moved quickly to condemn the veto.

Finance Minister Andrzej Domański accused the president of having “chosen chaos,” while Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski warned that the absence of new controls would leave savers exposed if markets turn.

Crypto advocates pushed back, saying the blame for scams and losses rests with enforcement failures, not with the rejection of a single statute.

Economist Krzysztof Piech argued that Poland is not operating in a regulatory vacuum, noting that the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets law will bring union-wide investor safeguards from July 2026.

In October, Sławomir Cenckiewicz, head of Poland’s National Security Bureau, said Russia is using cryptocurrencies to pay saboteurs carrying out hybrid attacks across the European Union.

The method, he said, allows Moscow to conceal financial flows and evade detection by Western intelligence services.

Cenckiewicz said the FT that Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU, has been using crypto to finance operations ranging from sabotage to cyberattacks on critical infrastructure.

The post Polish President Vetoes Strict Crypto Regulation Bill, Citing Threat to Freedom appeared first on Cryptonews.

• The companies aim to improve grid stability by matching clean-power output with mining demand.
• They will tokenize energy generation, carbon savings, and mining yields onchain.
• The platform is designed to support securitisation of green-power assets.

Canaan is pushing deeper into sustainable Bitcoin mining with a new strategy that blends clean energy, artificial intelligence, and onchain tokenization.

The mining and hardware company has teamed up with SynVista Energy to develop a platform that adapts mining activity to renewable-power availability.

The plan comes as the crypto industry faces ongoing scrutiny over energy use and increasing pressure to rely on greener sources.

By combining smart energy scheduling with digital tracking of renewable assets, Canaan aims to show how mining can integrate more efficiently with modern power systems while supporting the wider shift toward low-carbon infrastructure.

Canaan turns to adaptive renewable energy mining

Canaan and SynVista Energy are developing a mining rig designed to match energy consumption with renewable-power supply.

The system uses an AI-driven scheduling engine that adjusts hash-rate demand based on real-time fluctuations in clean-energy production.

The companies say this approach is intended to maximise the use of available green power without adding stress to electricity grids already dealing with volatility from high renewable penetration.

The pair believes the platform could move renewable-powered Bitcoin mining from small isolated pilots to replicable engineering solutions.

The focus is on creating a structure that can fit regulatory standards while also remaining commercially viable for operators navigating the challenges of intermittent energy generation.

Mining industry seeks stability as power demand grows

Bitcoin mining continues to attract attention for its electricity footprint, with some estimates comparing consumption levels to those of mid-sized nations such as Poland or Thailand.

At the same time, industry groups argue that mining can complement grid balancing efforts, especially as AI data centres increase pressure on existing networks.

Canaan’s project builds on this narrative by targeting ways to turn surplus or stranded energy into productive computing power.

The company highlighted that fast-changing renewable output often leads to curtailment, where clean energy goes unused.

Its adaptive system aims to convert these excess electrons into a mining activity that can respond to grid conditions.

Tokenization of RWA links energy generation with onchain data

Alongside the hardware collaboration, Canaan and SynVista Energy will tokenize generation output, carbon savings, and mining yields on-chain.

The aim is to create a verifiable data layer that supports digital tracking of renewable generation and the securitisation of real-world assets such as green-power plants.

The companies expect that this on-chain framework will eventually allow tokenization of cash flows from energy production and carbon credits.

This would improve price transparency and liquidity for green assets while supporting the broader integration of digital tools into the energy-transition economy.

Industry data underscores the push toward cleaner mining.

The Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index estimates that Bitcoin accounts for about 0.8% of global electricity use.

The post Canaan expands green Bitcoin mining with renewable energy, AI, and tokenization appeared first on CoinJournal.

The regulator says it is scrutinizing Apple’s App Tracking Transparency framework, which was introduced with iOS 14.5 and later versions.

The post Polish Antitrust Watchdog Probes Apple’s Privacy Policy appeared first on TechRepublic.

The regulator says it is scrutinizing Apple’s App Tracking Transparency framework, which was introduced with iOS 14.5 and later versions.

The post Polish Antitrust Watchdog Probes Apple’s Privacy Policy appeared first on TechRepublic.

EXPERT Q&A — Russia has not slowed its assaults on Ukraine, ceaselessly raining missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities while pushing forward - albeit slowly - on the frontlines. Former Senior CIA Officer Glenn Corn got a firsthand account of how Ukraine is faring under fire, telling The Cipher Brief about the resilience of the Ukrainians, the sabre-rattling from Russia aimed at dissuading Western support, and what Kyiv is seeking from the U.S. and Europe.

Cipher Brief CEO and Publisher Suzanne Kelly spoke with Corn from Ukraine, for an on-the-ground picture of the challenges, opportunities and immediate actions needed to counter Russia’s invasion. Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

The Cipher Brief: Russia’s attacks have really been intensifying against Ukrainian cities. You've witnessed that. What has this latest barrage been like from your perspective on the ground?

Corn: We were woken up in the morning about 6:00 AM by strikes inside of Kyiv by the Russians, including one strike which damaged the Council of Ministers building downtown. I think the Russians are claiming that was not deliberate, which is interesting. It tells me something when the Russians are very quick to say that they were not behind something, because that tells me they're worried about the response.

The Cipher Brief: We've seen heavy missile attacks in civilian areas before, so this is not entirely new. But it has been stepped up. It was a bit like this when we were there with you a few months ago. Is it wearing on people differently now?

Corn: The Ukrainians are incredibly resilient, and honestly, I'm not seeing that they're cowered by these attacks. I'm sure people are upset, and I think just days ago, the Russians hit a group of pensioners that were at a post office to get their pension checks and killed a group of civilians - 20-plus. People respond to that. They're angry about that. The main thing I'm hearing and seeing though is that they're waiting for the Western response. What is the West going to do? We've given Putin a chance to negotiate a ceasefire, a way out of this disastrous war, and he's not taking it. In fact, he's doubling down and people here are asking, "When is the West, including the United States, or maybe led by the United States, going to respond?" And I think many Americans are probably asking the same question.

The Cipher Brief: That's been a question for a long time. When the West steps up and for example, says it will provide more long-range missiles to Ukraine - the response from Moscow is threats and saber-rattling. This saber-rattling deterred the Biden administration from taking a more aggressive approach to supporting Ukraine. What do you think needs to happen now, for the West to provide effective deterrence against President Putin?

Corn: Let's just go back in history, to 2022. The Russians drew several red lines: Finland joining NATO was a red line, they said they were going to respond against the West. They didn't do that. If we gave the Ukrainians ATACMS, F-16s, Moscow said that could result in a nuclear response. They didn't do that.

I think there are a lot of threats that are coming from the Kremlin. It's easy for me to say, of course, because I'm not sitting in the White House, but I think that those threats are designed to deter us from making decisions or taking action..

If we talk about the deep strike capability, the Ukrainians are doing that on their own. My personal view, based on some of the things we've heard from the Ukrainians we've spoken with, is that they don't need that as much as they need a mid-strike capability, because the information that we heard is that the Russians are preparing for another large-scale offensive in the next couple of weeks, maybe even less than a week. And the Ukrainians are going to have to be able to strike the logistics points, the collection points for Russian troops if the Russians try and mass forces along the front to strike at any particular part of the front lines.

And we all know the Ukrainians are stretched personnel wise. So, having that capability would be very valuable. But obviously that's a strategic decision. My own view is that we should give the Ukrainians the weapons they need and they should be able to use them as they need to defend themselves and to stop this Russian onslaught. And if that means striking a Shahed factory deep inside of Russia, or a factory where they're producing these Kinzhal missiles, we should let them do it. And I don't think that Russia is going launch a nuclear war over that.

The Cipher Brief: Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev recently accused Finland of laying the groundwork for a NATO attack on Russia - right in the midst of a Russian drone incursion into Poland. Russia began a troop build up along its border with Ukraine in 2021, saying, "There's nothing to see here, there's nothing to see here." And then all of a sudden, Russia declared Ukraine a threat and invaded with ground troops and paratroopers dropping into Kyiv. Are you concerned about the Russian rhetoric now around Finland and Russian drone incursions into other neighboring countries?

Corn: If we go back to before the Second World War, Stalin used provocation to start a war with Finland, to invade Finland. They had Vladimir Zhirinovsky in the nineties through the mid-2000s, who was used to scare the West. Then they had Yevgeny Prigozhin, who was used, in my opinion, as an example of who could come to power if Putin were to lose power. Back in the nineties, people worried about who would follow if Boris Yeltsin lost power, you could have Zhirinovsky and that would have been a disaster for the West. So, I think Medvedev is being used to some degree for propaganda and deterrence purposes. I don't think what he says carries much weight.

I'm pretty positive that Finland is not preparing to invade, or NATO is not preparing to invade Russia across the Finnish border. I think that's all hyperbole. It's designed to make excuses for some of the things they're doing and maybe to rally support inside of Russia for a cause which, my guess is, doesn't have as much popular support as the Russian regime would like. Especially as Russia's economic situation continues to worsen, which it is doing.

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The Cipher Brief:You briefed President Trump on the threat from Russia during his first term in office. You were still working at the CIA at the time, but you've talked to him about Russia in the past. If you were briefing the president today after your latest trip to Ukraine, what would be in that brief?

Corn: That the Ukrainians are ready for a deal. It's not the Ukrainians that are the problem. Putin is the problem. Putin is pushing, as a bully would do. They're trying to bully their way to a settlement that they want, which is in favor of Moscow, and it's time for the United States to stand up to Russia. In my experience, if we do that, the Russians will be willing to negotiate in a more sincere manner, but they need to see force on the other side, and we should not let them deter us with their threats, their saber-rattling, Medvedev's comments. I think if you look at past action and response, that tells you a lot. And we should look at that and learn from that.

The Cipher Brief: Besides a more severe package of sanctions being prepared in the Senate right now, what other things could be included in a show of force to Putin that you feel like might actually make a difference?

Corn: Secondary sanctions, yes, I like what the president's saying to the Europeans. They need to take a step, too. They need to show that they have skin in the game. And enough with the excuses that they're relying on Russian oil and gas. They need to make changes. They've got to do that, because we're at the point now where we all need to do something and it's going to be painful for everybody.

The additional provision of weapons systems, including air defense systems, are critically needed. We talked about long-range weapon systems. We should give them the ability to use those systems the way that they need to be used, and let the commanders decide how they want to use them.

Some of the things we're doing elsewhere right now, make sense to me. For example, what we're doing in the Caribbean and the message we're sending to Venezuela, we shouldn't forget that is a Russian ally and a People’s Republic of China ally, and so we should be putting pressure on Maduro. We should be putting pressure on any Russian ally, in my opinion, around the world.

And I've been saying this for two plus years now, that we should be showing the Russians that - just like what Ronald Reagan did with his strategy during the Cold War - we are going to challenge them wherever they challenge us. And we're going to make them have to decide where they're going to spend their very, very limited — and I have to stress that — their limited funds.

They have economic problems. We can exasperate that. And it's unfortunate that we would have to do that, but we should do that, because the Russians are not only challenging the Ukrainians now, they're doing things like threatening the life of European officials when they're in the air.

Russian drones are violating Polish airspace. There's a whole list of things they're doing which is very aggressive, and there needs to be a strong response to those things. We need to make Russia understand that they will pay a price, there will be a significant consequence if they cross a line, and they seem to be crossing the line, so now it's time to show them the consequences.

And the last thing I'll say is what I wrote an article with you on: I think the president needs to start messaging the Russian people directly. We, the U.S. government, need to message them directly. The president has given their leader a chance for peace, and he's not taking it. He should be held accountable by the people of Russia for whatever economic pain they're feeling, and for whatever consequences come from policies that we're going to have to make to punish Moscow for its continued aggression against its neighbors, not just Ukraine, but others like Georgia and Moldova, too.

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EXPERT INTERVIEW – Polish President Karol Nawrocki signed a classified decree over the weekend allowing armed forces of NATO member states to be present in his country after Poland’s airspace was violated by an incursion of 19 Russian drones last week.

Moscow’s incursion, which Western security experts see as a ‘test’ by Russia (even though it has denied those claims) that has prompted a series of responses intended to fend off a potential Russian attack in the future. And Poland isn’t alone. Romania, Lativa, Estonia and Lithuania have also reported drone incursions by Russian since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Experts believe that any effective strategy to address the incursions must be focused on deterring Russian President Vladimir Putin. And despite earlier promises to impose stricter sanctions on Russia if President Putin does not end the war in Ukraine, President Donald Trump now says that the U.S. will only carry through with those sanctions if NATO member states do the same and end all purchases of Russian oil.

THE CONTEXT

• Data from the Center for Information Resilience and reported by The Wall Street Journal shows that Moscow launched close to 6,300 drones in July of this year, up from 426 just one year earlier.

• According to officials, at least three Russian drones were shot down last week as Polish F-16 and Dutch F-35 fighter jets were scrambled.

• Acting U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Dorothy Shea told the UN Security Council that "The United States stands by our NATO allies in the face of these alarming airspace violations…And rest assured, we will defend every inch of NATO territory”, adding that "These actions, now with the addition of violating the airspace of a U.S. ally – intentionally or otherwise – show immense disrespect for good-faith U.S. efforts to bring an end to this conflict."

• On Friday, September 12, NATO launched operation Eastern Sentry to bolster deterrence. The mission includes enhanced air policing, expanding existing operations there. European Sentry is a “multi-domain activity” including aircraft, sensors and air defenses.

• Air policing is the use of military fighter aircraft to protect airspace from unauthorized penetration and ensure air traffic safety from threats. NATO Air Policing is a part of the Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) framework, providing 24/7/365 coverage of NATO airspace. Begun in 1961, the NATO Air Policing mission provides airborne quick reaction forces (QRFs) to member countries.

• As a part of the broad set of assurance measures since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Allies are providing additional assets to enhance air policing along NATO’s eastern borders. To that end, Allies supplement the existing NATO Air Policing forces in the Baltic States, deploy additional aircraft to Poland, and augment the national air policing capabilities of the Bulgarian and Romanian air forces.

THE INTERVIEW

The Cipher Brief spoke with former Supreme Allied Commander General Phil Breedlove (Ret.), who also served earlier in his career as a military fighter jet pilot, to better understand what’s stake and what options NATO has for implementing its own form of deterrence from future Russian aggression. Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity. You can also watch our conversation on The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel.

General Philip M. Breedlove

Gen. Breedlove retired as the Commander, Supreme Allied Command, Europe, SHAPE, Belgium and Headquarters, U.S. European Command, Stuttgart, Germany.  He also served as Vice Chief of Staff of the U.S. Air Force, Senior Military Assistant to the Secretary of the Air Force; and Vice Director for Strategic Plans and Policy on the Joint Staff.

The Cipher Brief: How serious of an issue was Russia’s drone incursion into Poland?

Gen. Breedlove: I think it is serious, but it's not serious in the way that some in the press are reporting it. I've seen some press calling this an attack on Poland. I don't think that Mr. Putin intended to attack Poland, but I do believe it was completely and 1000% deliberate and that he is testing NATO and testing Poland. And for that reason, it is important. It is serious and we need to be taking appropriate action.

The Cipher Brief: Many experts are saying that what the U.S. decides to do in response could be consequential in terms of deterring President Putin. What do you think needs to be done to give NATO what it needs to be effective?

Gen. Breedlove: The very first thing would be a simple statement by President Trump saying, "This is wrong, Mr. Putin, stop it," and he needs to say it publicly for the whole world to see.

Second, I would encourage our government to help NATO to come to a better place on how we defend our skies. We are in a posture called air policing, that is a peacetime posture and operates under peacetime Rules of Engagement. Air policing is really a result of 9/11. It is a functionality of alert aircraft that are designed to address renegade - that's the official term - renegade aircraft, meaning aircraft that are not squawking appropriately, talking appropriately, or are flying in the wrong airspace. And all they can do in peacetime is to go up and to investigate and try to warn off the airplanes and this is only when a foreign country is flying over your airspace. So, as an example, when a British or a U.S. airplane is flying over Estonia, they have zero rules of engagement that allow them to engage the enemy, except in self-defense. If the enemy makes a move toward the aircraft, they can defend themselves. If the enemy makes a move to drop a bomb though, there are no rules of engagement for the air policing. I've been advocating since May of 2016 that we need to change our posture to an air defense posture with an air defense rule of engagement set, which would allow an American pilot to defend Estonia if the need arised.

The Cipher Brief: It’s not hard to imagine how a situation could escalate quickly. But you had an entire career to think about these types of things. You've also been a huge advocate of no-fly zones. You thought a no-fly zone needed to be imposed on Ukraine from day one. Could that have any bearing here now?

Gen. Breedlove: Absolutely. And we don't want to cry over spilt milk or water under the bridge, but we proposed a set of operations back in 2014, [when Russia invaded Crimea] and if we had adopted any of those, we would be in a different place than we are now. We are at the crux of being in the same situation again. In three or four years, we will be answering for the decisions we make now. And if we were to establish some sort of zone that says, "Mr. Putin, stop," publicly, loudly, so the Russian people can hear it and Mr. Putin can hear it, we will find ourselves in a different place in three years than if we just continue along the path that we're currently on.

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The Cipher Brief: Another thing that you have been very vocal on is deterrence. And the fact that the U.S. has really, despite actions that it has taken in the past, has not yet deterred the Russian president from aggressive acts against his neighbors. There's a sanctions package that's just waiting to be passed right now that a lot of Republicans in Congress are trying to push forward and it hasn't really gotten the support yet from the president. What impact might those sanctions have?

Breedlove: I'm a fan of sanctions, but we also have to be intellectually honest and understand that sanctions have never, ever changed Mr. Putin's battlefield actions. Sanctions have hurt Russia, they've hurt the Russian people, they've hurt the Russian economy and they're having an impact, and we need to keep them going. But sanctions alone have never changed Mr. Putin's battlefield actions. It's going to take more. I hope we adopt the sanctions. We need to tell Mr. Putin, "We are going to put these sanctions on you," and then do it. We've already said that and we’ve passed that red line a couple of times now, but this time we need to actually do it.

The other thing that would be a smart move by our president and our country would be to use every penny of frozen Russian assets to buy weapons for Ukraine. Why is this important? Most of that money belongs to oligarchs who are right below Mr. Putin, and you start taking their money and their boats and all that stuff away from them and he's not going to have as easy a time moving around in his own political circles. We need to start punishing those oligarchs by using their money to support the war effort in Ukraine. It would be important for the world to hear, especially the Russian people, that Russian money is paying for Ukrainian weapons.

The Cipher Brief: Using those frozen Russian assets has been another point of conversation for some time now that feels like a decision needs to be made one way or another. Whose decision is it right now, is it Europe?

Gen. Breedlove: Well, it's all of us. There are multiple systems that are involved, and this is going to have to be something that western leaders - to include our president - would have to rally to get it to move forward. It can't be a NATO action because you know Mr. Putin has at least two of our leaders in his pocket and they're going to vote against that if it's a NATO action. So, this has to be more of a coalition of the willing EU, NATO kind of thing where all the nations involved, including ours says, "This money is now going to the manufacturers in Europe and the manufacturers in America who are going to put forward weapons for Ukraine." That is the picture we need the Russian people to see, that their money, these oligarchs’ money is being used to buy Ukrainian weapons.

The Cipher Brief: What about other methods of deterrence?

Gen. Breedlove: I believe that we have strategic deterrence. I believe that we have conventional deterrence inside NATO, but I would tell you that tactical nuclear deterrence is beginning to fade because Mr. Putin continually talks about Russia lowering the bar and being ready to use tactical nuclear weapons. He's doing that to deter us, and it has worked. Former President Biden's administration was completely deterred. Mr. Trump's administration is nearly completely deterred when it comes to that realm. But here's the part that I think we need to think about. The previous administration said dozens of times, ‘We will defend every inch of NATO’. When President Biden said that, here's what President Putin heard: ‘Every other country is fair game have at it.’ So, he's essentially retaken Georgia politically. He's in the middle of doing the same in Moldova. He's attacking at will in Ukraine. So, we need to change that posture. We need to establish conventional deterrence outside of NATO because it has been forfeited and given away, and that is a problem.

The Cipher Brief: There's a lot of talk right now, a lot of speculation, a lot of concern, and a lot of talk about World War III when you're looking at the alignment of China and Russia. How realistic do you think that is?

Gen. Breedlove: That's exactly what Mr. Putin wants you to think. That is the exact result he wants, and he wants people like you and me talking about it and enhancing the message and getting everybody fearful of War War III. This is what is called reflexive control [Russian military theory based on the belief that you have control over your enemy by imposing assumptions that change the way they act]. Mr. Putin is exercising reflexive control, and it is working wildly. He is succeeding magnificently in controlling Western thought and especially, the decisions of Western leaders.

As I said before, Mr. Biden's administration was nearly completely deterred, and this administration is in the same place. Our most senior policy maker in the Pentagon is absolutely deterred, and we need to get past that. We need to think about how President Kennedy faced these kinds of problems during the Cuban missile crisis, how former President Reagan faced these problems during the intermediate range missile crisis and at how we’ve faced down the Soviet Union and Russia in the past. We seem to be somewhat incapable of doing that now.

Researchers Ian Coleman and Connor Cowman contributed to this report.

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EXPERT INTERVIEW – More Western leaders and national security experts are now saying that Russia’s recent drone incursion into Poland was not a mission gone wrong as Moscow suggested but was more likely an intended probe to determine how quickly the NATO alliance – created to safeguard security - might rally in the face of an expanded Russian attack.

President Vladimir Putin now has his answer.

In a swift response, NATO announced that it is bolstering it’s eastern flank defenses. Germany is expanding air policing over Poland. France is sending 3 Rafale fighter jets and The Netherlands is sending two Patriot air defenses, NASAMS and counter drone systems to Warsaw. The Czech Republic is sending additional helicopters and up to 150 soldiers to help defend Poland’s borders.

In this expert weekend interview, The Cipher Brief spoke with General David Petraus (Ret.) who was on the ground in Kyiv this week, talking with senior leaders - not only about the seriousness of Russia’s incursion into NATO territory - but also about how technology continues to dramatically alter the battlespace in Ukraine and how Moscow is now using its troops on the ground.

THE CONTEXT

• 19 Russian drones entered Polish airspace on September 9 forcing the temporary closure of several airports.
• Polish F-16s and Dutch F-35s downed some of the drones, with NATO aerial refueling and AWACs C2 support.
• Russia said the drones were enroute to Ukraine and were not pursuing targets inside of Poland.
• Poland invoked Article 4 of the NATO Treaty to trigger allied consultation on response. The North Atlantic Council met on September 10 to discuss the situation and denounced Russia. Europe broadly condemned the incursion.
• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called the incursion “reckless and unacceptable” and warned that the alliance will “defend every inch of NATO territory.” Allied Commander Europe General Alexus Grynkewoch said the alliance will “learn lessons” and improve readiness in response.
• EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said “indications suggest [the incursion] was intentional, not accidental.” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said the drones “were quite obviously deliberately directed on this course.”
• After President Donald Trump suggested the incursion may have been a mistake, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Friday in a post on X that, “We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn't. And we know it.”
• NATO announced Eastern Sentry, a new mission to boost defenses on its eastern flank. The mission is modeled after Baltic Sentry, NATO’s maritime and aerial operation to monitor the Baltic Sea.

THE EXPERT INTERVIEW

General David Petraeus (Ret.)

General David Petraeus served more than 37 years in the U.S. military with six consecutive commands, five of which were combat, including command of the Multi-National Force-Iraq during the Surge, U.S. Central Command, and Coalition and U.S. Forces in Afghanistan. He is a partner in the KKR global investment firm and chairs the firm’s global institute.

Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

The Cipher Brief: Let’s talk about this week’s Russian drone incursion into Poland, whether you believe it was an accident on Moscow’s behalf or a calculated probe, how significant of an event was this?

General Petraeus: It was a very significant episode. Again, 19 drones entered Polish airspace. The bottom line is that this could not have been a mistake. These aren't on autopilot. They may have way points from which they're flying to and from, but there were pilots behind this significant incursion. Just recently, I saw a report that five of the drones were actually headed for a major base, which is one of the hubs from which a lot of the NATO equipment is transported into Ukraine. It's one of the big areas for trans-shipment.

The NATO response was impressive, in my view. Keep in mind, you had Dutch F-35s, Polish F-16s in the air very rapidly. They clearly must have seen this coming. They've rehearsed this in the past. There was an AWACS up there to help them also with the command and control and early warning, and aerial refueling tankers were flying so they could refuel as required. At least several of the drones were shot down. So, again, an impressive response.

And then as a result of that, Poland called for an Article Four gathering. Keep in mind, Article Five is a call to arms, Article Four is a call to meet. They did that at the North Atlantic Council, of course, in Brussels at NATO headquarters. And out of that, came a very comprehensive set of actions that NATO will take, which apparently includes the U.S. as some part of the air component, but it's going to beef up all of the different capabilities that would be needed, including anti-air and anti-ballistic missile defenses for those countries on the eastern front and a number of other capabilities as well. This is now Operation Eastern Sentry.

This wasn't a wake-up call because clearly, they were already awake to the threat, but it was a significant incursion that has generated a significant response. I think the tactical response was quite impressive. The operational response - not quite strategic - perhaps you could describe it as that by NATO, was very significant, as well and quick, too.

I'm hoping that there are even bigger strategic responses though, and that this might be the catalyst in Washington for Congress to work with the White House on the sanctions package that Senator Lindsey Graham and others have been working for a number of months, which would add substantial U.S. sanctions to those already imposed by the EU and European countries [on Russia].

And then on the European side, for this to galvanize support for what is now termed the von der Leyen plan or concept, which is of course Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, who, by the way, gave a stirring State of the Union address written before the incursion, but delivered after it.

Her concept is to use those frozen hundreds of billions of dollars, of euros really, of frozen Russian reserves in European banks as collateral to give money to Ukraine now to help them. And as you know, the Ukrainians could build even more drones than the 3.5 million that they're going to build this year, if they had more money. And additional fundingwould be a huge help for them also in terms of their fiscal situation.

And then the frozen funds go back to Russia once Russia pays reparations to Ukraine for all the damage and destruction they have wrought in the country here. That's quite an artful approach because it avoids the actual seizure of these assets, which again, a number of European countries, I think rightly have concern about, that it might undermine the euro attractiveness for this kind of reserve.

I'd love to see those two actions on top of the very quick response and the very quick decisions by the North Atlantic Council to carry out the military actions announced. These would be very, very complimentery to the military actions and show Russia just how serious this was.

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I think in this case, Russia has vastly overplayed its hand, just as I think it has, frankly, in terms of the huge numbers of drones and missiles that have been launched into Ukraine in recent nights that we've seen in the Institute for the Study War statistics and so forth that show the highest ever numbers. In the sense that this shows very clearly if there were any remaining possibility of whether Vladimir Putin was willing to negotiate a ceasefire and agree to some kind of sustained and just peace, as President Trump sought to achieve, that clearly is not in the cards.

The Cipher Brief: General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander in chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said recently that the direct technological race is accelerating in the battlespace. The technology that is being put into battlefield drones, is being adapted very quickly by Russia. The Cipher Brief visited the Nemesis Regiment with you earlier this year – the separate battalion of the Unmanned Systems Forces that specializes in the use of bomber drones -what has changed on that front over the past few months?

General Petraeus: The Nemesis Regiment, now, having expanded from a battalion, is well known here in Ukraine because it (and all of the military units] is trying to compete for talent, and they have billboards that say, "Sign up for the Nemesis Regiment." They're now able to recruit directly. They now are able to do basic military training themselves as well. The workarounds that they have developed to get talent into uniform as rapidly as possible to make a difference, is really quite impressive. Only a country that is fighting for its very independence, it’s very survival, would be able to do all of this.

You'll recall that when I was last here and I talked to General Syrskyi and asked just roughly, "How many drones did you use yesterday of all types?" Because of course, they have air and ground and maritime drones (indeed, the maritime drones have been so effective that they have sunk one third of the Black Sea Fleet). His answer was, “Nearly 7,000.” And many of those flew multiple missions.

By the way, one of the briefings we had informed us that the entire remaining Black Sea Fleet is all completely in one Russian harbor as far as you can get away from Ukraine, in the eastern part of the Black Sea, with lots of defenses around it. So, the Ukrainians have basically forced it to bottle itself up just to survive, because the Ukrainians are still out there picking off occasional Russian patrol boats or carrying out other kinds of action at sea whenever they find Russian ships at sea.

The Ukrainians also have land drones of all types, remotely driven vehicles that do a lot of the back and forth from the rear to the front lines with logistics and taking casualties and so forth. And also, increasingly, remotely operated machine guns, grenade launchers, and other weapons systems, often on remotely driven vehicles.

And, of course, Ukraine has tons of all different types of aerial drones, including some now that very publicly are out there that reportedly can fly thousands of kilometers into the Russian Federation.

And long-range missiles are also now in production in Ukraine , and the numbers of these being produced are beginning to ramp up very substantially, in addition to the 3.5 million drones that will be produced this year.

I also met with the individuals that have developed the command, control, communications, intelligence and battle management intelligence - and knitting all of this together into a common operational picture/battle management system that is truly extraordinary. And the 7,000 drones doesn't quite capture all of this. They said, "In a 12-hour shift there are 40,000 flights." And again, all of this is being tracked. There are crews that are sending these out very quickly. Some come back, some does not. But just to give you a sense of the magnitude of the technology race. We learned last time that we were here, that to combat the Russian electronic warfare and jamming, as many as a quarter of the drones that go out from the Ukrainian side have tiny fiber optic cable that spools out behind them so that they can maintain the critical command and control links to fly these right into the enemy, regardless of the EW and jamming. A lot of these are first-person view suicide drones, as they're termed.

There are also other advances. The Russians, for example, now are putting jet engines on some of their Shahed drones. And because the way that you knock down drones encompasses all types of different systems - everything from a quite skillful use of heavy machine guns, laser designators, acoustic sensors, all kinds of radars, everything working together - but if they fly faster and higher, it's harder to counter. There are now also Ukrainian drones that run into the Russian drones, and again, hundreds of these are out there every night.

The skill involved in all of this is extraordinary, but the increased speed makes that much more difficult. So, what you have is a constant back and forth, where one side develops something new and innovative, the other side sees it, reverse engineers it, and adapts it. And while, of course, on the Russian side, it's much more top down than bottom up (as on the Ukrainian side), when they go top down, they can produce huge quantities very quickly. On the Ukrainian side, it's a lot more like a ‘let 1,000 flowers bloom’ initiative. There is tremendous innovation, but then you've got to figure out how to scale it. And Ukraine is doing that now, too.

Each side is very much going about this in a whole variety of different ways. The sensor component of this is particularly interesting, and then the fusion of all of the different reports. You might get a human intelligence report derived from a number of different methods. How do you then get that into the system, immediately alert those who have the means to actually deal with it, who then delivers this to those who can actually take action against it, kinetic action in many cases?

And what they're doing through their battle management system is shrinking the time from the so-called sensor to shooter, the ‘kill chain’, as Chris Brose wrote a book with that title. These are just breathtaking kinds of advances. And as you know – because you’ve been here with us - every four or five months or so, you see breathtaking new advances.

The very first time we spent time with Nemesis, and you and Brad were with us, it was a Battalion. Now it's the regiment, and it's going to be a brigade. And of course, it was founded by and still commanded by a former prime minister, the first one under President Zelensky - so everybody's in this fight. But the first time we were here, I think the drones they had were using had one antenna. Last time, I think there were three or four. Now, it's up to six. And of course, you also have the Starlink big board on top of it to communicate with what Elon Musk has put up in the constellation.

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So, Ukraine is where the most advanced innovation in the world can be found.

I also spent time with all of the defense security assistance folks in the U.S. embassy, which included more than just Americans, by the way. So, many allied countries were there as well. And while they are doing great work, we should also be doing much more, the U.S., NATO countries, and other allies and partners around the world that might be threatened by aggression, can learn huge lessons from here. But of course, the lessons aren’t really learned until they are institutionalized in some way in the military services in the form of doctrine, organizational changes, training, leader development courses, and the rest of that. And we're not doing that at all as assiduously and aggressively as we should be.

I know the US military service chiefs recognize the imperative of much more rapid innovation, but when you think that nearly 7,000 individual drones are used every day, many of which are on multiple missions, and you hear the scale of what it is they're doing, we're not remotely doing what we should be.

In terms of their organizations, the Ukrainians now have a drone platoon in every infantry company, a drone company in every infantry battalion, a drone battalion in every brigade. The new corps have their own drone units. And then there are the independent drone organizations like the Nemesis Regiment, which are active in all kinds of different ways and are apportioned according to the priorities on the battlefield, the most significant threats, the most lucrative targets and so forth.

And as you recall, drone units get points for the different targets that they strike. The strikes are all validated because you have drones watching drones. And those points can be redeemed for equipment and components that you need via an Amazon-like system that was established by Brave One (a Ukrainian government-funded organization that supports innovation) as an adjunct to the DELTA system, which is the overall software platform that is used by all of the elements of their Ministry of Defense and all their services. Noting that Ukraine don't just have an army, navy, air force and marine corps, they also now have an unmanned systems force, and the commander of that is incredibly aggressive and innovative.

The Cipher Brief: Given all of the focus on the technology, I think it's difficult for some people to understand what the front line still looks like today. Russia is still recruiting an incredible number of people with a very tight turnaround time between recruitment and when they're actually deploy. Can you just give us a picture of what that looks like today?

General Petraeus: Well, in fact, several of our other fellow travelers, as you know, Ralph Goff, Glenn Corn, and Joey Gagnard have been out to the front lines. They were down in the south. The commander down there said there are Russian soldiers who have gone from recruitment to deployment in considerably less than 20 days. In other words, recruits aren’t even getting 30 days of basic training before being integrated into a unit. No time to build cohesion and all the rest of that stuff. This is extraordinary, stunning, actually. Moscow is literally taking these individuals off the street, luring them in with huge enlistment bonuses, often from rural areas where the job opportunities are not all that great. And in many cases, the families actually celebrate that they're doing this because it leads to a massive financial windfall.

The recruits go in very quickly, are issued weapons, uniform, et cetera, and then shoved into the front lines and right into an offensive - keeping in mind that the offensives now are not combined arms as we have known them in the past. They're not tanks and armor personnel carriers supported by engineers, infantry, air defense, electronic warfare, artillery, and all the rest. They're infantrymen on foot, essentially running across a street or a field and trying to establish a foothold in the next block of buildings or treeline. It's literally proceeding at infantry pace, because the drones are so ubiquitous, the surveillance is so constant. At the minute that they're spotted, or if they get tanks moving, immediately the suicide drones will come out and take them out. So, you have almost blanket coverage except for really extreme weather when drones can't stay up or they can't see. The rest of the time, it's impossible for the kind of combined arms attacks that launched this invasion by Russia in the beginning. As you'll recall then, there were huge columns of tanks and other vehicles, and frankly, even into the second summer of the counteroffensive that was mounted by the Ukrainians. And now, you actually don't even have as clearly defined front lines as you had then with trench lines and almost World War I-like fortifications. Now you have outposts, and they'll actually allow the enemy to flow around them a bit because the drones will eventually police them up.

But this is hugely costly to the Russians. And for those Ukrainian units that are using the different command and control and intelligence and battle management systems, tools that are fusing the intelligence and enabling them to be even more effective with the drones than they otherwise would be, the exchange ratio is 10 to 1. And that's what it needs to be given how much the Russians outman and outgun the Ukrainian forces.

The Cipher Brief: What the sense of urgency now among European leaders you’ve talked to?

General Petraeus: I suspect that the events of the past number of months have probably been pretty sobering. There was some hope. President Trump made a valiant effort to try to bring this war to an end by engaging Putin, engaging the Europeans and President Zelensky. But it was for nought, it appears. And now on the NATO side, inn a lot of ways, there is renewed confidence because of the improvement in the relationship between President Trump and President Zelensky and the interation between President Trump and key European leaders.

European leaders are, of course, trying to come up with a security guarantee – which I think is quite elusive, frankly, as unless you put your forces in the front lines, you might as well just give all your stuff to the Ukrainians and arm them to the teeth. They're the security guarantee, I think, for Ukraine’s defense.

So, I think there's increasingly a more sober analysis of the prospects for some kind of ceasefire. Washington has actually gotten the Europeans – in a huge success for the White House, frankly - to increase their defense spending to 3.5% of GDP rather than the 2% that was the old standard. And even 5% when you take into account other investments in infrastructure to push the forces further out to the east and that kind of activity. And to see, again, the continued American commitment in eastern Poland and elsewhere, and the air commitment to what is going on in response to the Russian drone incursion, is very encouraging.

So, I think there's a degree of confidence that the Europeans are picking up their share of this load. The Germans, in particular, are doubling defense spending in the next 10 years or so, and that is between 700 billion and a trillion euros more than they would've spent otherwise. Other European countries are also stepping up impressively – and with swift diplomatic action, as well as much additional security assistance to Ukraine and in spending on national defense.

Washington has tried and done everything they could. President Trump engaged personally, repeatedly, and it should be clear to all now that Putin is just not really serious about negotiating an end to this war. He still has his maximalist objectives of replacing President Zelensky with a pro-Russian figure, essentially demilitarizing Ukraine to the extent that would be possible, and seeking additional land that they haven't even been able to seize. They haven't even yet gotten to the so-called fortified cities in the southeastern part of the country, in Donetsk Province in particular. And agreeing to any of those is not acceptable to Ukraine or to its leader. In fact, the Constitution of Ukraine does not allow a leader to give away territory or redraw borders.

The Cipher Brief: What else is top of mind for you as you’re on the ground there in Kyiv?

General Petraeus: I'm keen to hear from European and NATO leaders about how much this drone incursion has galvanized additional action. How much European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's stirring European Union address has reinforced that new determination, and to get a sense of where that is headed. Because there's a seriousness of purpose right now that is even greater than it was just days ago. And to put a finger on the pulse of that, I think will be very important and could produce a number of insights. Needless to say, that is very heartening to the Ukrainians who are seeing the prospect of this substantial additional European commitment. They are also heartened by recognition that Washington has done everything it can to try to be the catalyst to bring about a ceasefire. That's not going to happen, it doesn't appear. And now, I think there's a seriousness of purpose in Washington, reinforced, I hope, by this incursion to get that sanctions package through Congress to the White House and into law.

Cipher Brief Writer and Editor Ethan Masucol contributed research for this report.

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DEEP DIVE - Russia’s drone barrage against Poland early Wednesday was an unprecedented incident in Moscow’s three-and-a-half-year war against Ukraine, bringing Europe to what Poland’s Prime Minister refers to as the country’s most dangerous moment in decades.

“It’s incomparably more dangerous than before,” Prime Minister Donald Tusk told members of Poland’s parliament. “This situation brings us the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II.”

Many of the 19 drones that crossed into Polish territory early Wednesday were shot down but the incursion was enough to prompt Warsaw to invoke NATO’s Article 4 – in a rare direct military engagement between NATO and Russia – the first since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian Defense Ministry said it was an accident, and that the drones were never intended to enter Poland. Polish, Ukrainian and other Western officials aren’t buying it, with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte saying that the question of intent doesn’t matter; Russia should be held accountable.

“It is absolutely reckless,” Rutte said. And in a message intended for Russian President Vladimir Putin, he added, “stop violating allied airspace. And know that we stand ready, that we are vigilant and that we will defend every inch of NATO territory.”

The possibility that NATO’s support for Ukraine could lead to military conflict with Russia has been a concern since the early days of the 2022 invasion. When a single stray missile landed on Polish soil in November 2022, killing two farmers, Ukraine blamed Russia. NATO went on high alert and then-President Joe Biden was awakened in the middle of the night to be briefed. In that incident though, an investigation found that the missile was a Ukrainian air-defense missile that had misfired.

As the war dragged on, and Russia seemed unable or unwilling to act on its repeated threats to punish the West for providing aid to Ukraine, experts argued that fears of a conflagration were overblown, and that they had slowed western assistance at precisely the time when Ukraine needed it most.

Wednesday’s drone attack was a game changer. While Russian drones have strayed into Polish territory before – seven in total, in more than three years – experts say this is different. Nearly two dozen drones flew into Poland in a single event, traveling as far as a hundred miles into the country.

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Poland, along with Lithuania and Ukraine, issued a joint statement condemning the incident as a “deliberate and coordinated attack.” In a video posted on Wednesday, Radoslaw Sikorski, Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, said the drones “did not veer off course, but were deliberately targeted.” Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker agrees.

“There can be no doubt that Russia deliberately sent these drones into Polish territory,” Volker told The Cipher Brief. “They may not have intended to attack anything – they were unarmed after all – but it was a deliberate incursion into NATO territory.”

Volker and others suggested that Moscow may have carried out the incursions in order to test NATO's resolve, collect intelligence, and issue a warning that unless Ukraine surrenders soon, Russia’s war will widen.

“The number of drones that crossed into Polish territory suggest the Russians were probing, trying to watch and see how NATO reacts,” Erin Dumbacher, a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told The Cipher Brief.

Daniel Fried, a former U.S. Ambassador to Poland, told The Cipher Brief that Russia’s success in Ukraine “depends on intimidating NATO, which this attack may have intended.”

NATO Supreme Allied Commander for Europe Alexus Grynkewich said that the alliance did not yet know whether the act was intentional. But several experts echoed the point made by Rutte, the alliance’s Secretary General: intentional or accidental, the incursions constituted an act of aggression that should not go unpunished.

“I don’t think intent matters much going forward,” John McLaughlin, a former acting director of the Central Intelligence Agency, told The Cipher Brief. “At this point, the issue is what is NATO capable of agreeing on and what does Russia learn from that. It will be a test of whether the ‘coalition of the willing’ has substance and who is prepared to be in it.”

Fried concurs. “Intent matters, but Russia is responsible in any case and cannot be allowed to hide behind plausible deniability,” he said. “Russia can put out a credible explanation of the error, if it wants its denials to be taken seriously.”

The initial reactions to the Russian barrage have been a mix of condemnation and calls for a NATO response. The UN Security Council is to hold an emergency session in response to the incursion. And NATO says it is investigating whether the Russian drones were deliberately sent into Poland, while planning to bolster its air defense and detection systems.

“If it is proven that this was a deliberate Russian incursion, NATO leaders have to respond diplomatically and militarily in a way that deters Russia from a similar incursion,” Dumbacher and Liana Fix, a Council on Foreign Relations Fellow, wrote on Thursday, outlining a series of steps that NATO might consider.

NATO “could pursue responses with little escalatory potential, such as increasing air patrolling and strengthening air defense on the Eastern flank,” they wrote. “There is also the option of a more robust response, such as supporting a Ukrainian attack on Russian drone production sites. Diplomatically, a joint response can include the ratcheting up of sanctions on Moscow that are already being discussed in Washington and Brussels."

“The next steps should focus on reinforcing deterrence at the border,” Dumbacher told The Cipher Brief. “NATO militaries should work together to demonstrate that Russia will suffer losses if they try the same probing attack or, worse, try to come across the border with higher quantities next time.”

McLaughlin suggests a ramping up of NATO reinforcements to the alliance’s Eastern flank – “and to make clear that they will stay there for the indefinite future. Reinforce air defense across the front and in Ukraine.” He and Volker also suggested the establishment of a no-fly or air-defense zone over Ukraine backed by western resources — an idea that surfaced in the early days of the war but was deemed too likely to lead to a NATO-Russian aerial engagement.

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“NATO should declare an extended air defense zone – for example, shooting down any hostile objects that fly within 200 kilometers of NATO territory,” Volker said. “This would be a direct and proportionate military response to Russia's willingness to threaten NATO populations.”

It might also carry more risk than the Europeans are willing to assume – even now. But several experts stressed that it was time for NATO to act with less concern about the Russian response.

“Russia is the aggressor and has been engaged in sabotage against and inside Europe for over a year,” said Fried, who also argued for imposing an air-defense zone. “Letting concerns over escalation dominate us allows Putin to set the terms of his escalation without concern over our response.”

Putin believes “that he can outlast whatever resolve there is in the West,” McLaughlin said. “A flaccid western response would say to Putin: the road is clear, push on. Some movement of forces, some material commitment, is required.”

How the U.S. responds also matters. Four weeks ago, President Trump welcomed Putin to Alaska, saying after their meeting that while “we didn’t get there (to a deal), we have a very good chance of getting there.” He also said that Putin and Zelensky would meet soon in the pursuit of peace.

But since the Alaska summit, Putin’s forces have dramatically stepped up their attacks on Ukraine, and have also struck an American factory in western Ukraine, two European diplomatic compounds and a key Ukrainian government building in Kyiv.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Andrii Sybiha, said after the drone incursions into Poland that the absence of any real penalties was having an effect. “Putin’s sense of impunity keeps growing,” Sybiha said in a message on X. “He was not properly punished for his previous crimes.”

Even Republican members of Congress are taking that view. “I think Russia is playing – they’re really playing us like a piano right now,” North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Thillis said this week.

After this week’s drone barrage, President Trump spoke with Poland’s President Karol Nawrocki and wrote on social media, “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones?” He closed his post with a cryptic three words: “Here we go!”

Trump has threatened Putin repeatedly in an “or else” fashion but to this point, Putin has reaped the benefits of American engagement without paying a price. No new sanctions, despite repeated threats to impose them, even as the Senate has prepared a bipartisan sanctions bill that would punish Moscow by imposing tariffs on countries importing Russian energy and applying secondary sanctions on firms seen as aiding Russia’s energy sector.

“I hear every week, it’s coming, it’s coming. I just think we ought to stop talking about it,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said after the Russian drones flew into Poland. Other Republican senators – including Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wy) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) – support the measure and are pushing President Trump to do the same.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Wednesday that the Poland incursion had boosted momentum in Congress to pass what he called the “bone-crushing” sanctions bill. He described Russia’s actions as “provocative,” and aimed at testing the U.S. and NATO. But he also said he would only bring the bill to the floor once he received a clear signal of support from the president.

“The U.S. needs to develop a realistic and informed understanding of how Russia operates,” McLaughlin said Thursday. “When Steve Witkoff returned from the Alaska meeting saying Russia had agreed to Article 5-like deployments to Ukraine by a European security force, it was obvious that could not have been a serious Russian commitment, or that Witkoff had misunderstood. And Putin must have come away thinking he could do just about anything without provoking the U.S. to serious action.”

McLaughlin added that “realism, consistency, careful negotiation, and backstopping the Europeans seem the minimal requirements to keep future historians from concluding that the administration ‘lost’ Ukraine.”

Last month Trump met with Nawrocki, the newly minted Polish president (whose candidacy Trump supported) and lavished praise on him and pledged to keep American troops in Poland – no matter what Putin said about it. Now Nawrocki and other Polish officials want help in terms of their own defense, and a robust message of deterrence to Putin.

“The U.S. should denounce Russia’s escalation of aggression, increase economic pressure on Russia, increase arms deliveries to Ukraine, and step up military support for NATO’s Eastern front members and for the Coalition of the Willing,” Fried said. “Including by backing their developing plans for a mission in Ukraine.”

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