• The Justice Department recovered more money through the False Claims Act in fiscal 2025 than ever before. New data shows DoJ won $6.8 billion in settlements for healthcare, procurement and tariff fraud. A significant amount of those cases were driven by whistleblowers. DoJ said there were 1,297 qui tam lawsuits filed last year, the highest number in a single year, and the government opened 401 investigations. Of the $6.8 billion in False Claims Act recoveries last year, $5.7 billion related to matters that involved the health care industry.
  (DoJ recovers more money than ever before under the False Claims Act - Justice Department)
• The audit of the 8(a) program is expanding to the largest user of the small business contracting program. The Defense Department is joining the Treasury Department and Small Business Administration in reviewing all sole source contracts under the 8(a) program. Secretary Pete Hegseth said the Pentagon spends $100 million a year on 8(a) sole source contracts and he's worried about fraud. "I'm ordering a line-by-line review of every small business sole source 8(a) contract that is over $20 million. We will look at everything smaller than that too," Hegseth said in a video on X. Hegseth said it will be a two-stage review. If the contract doesn't help the DoD mission, they will cancel it. The other stage is to make sure the small business is the one doing the work and not acting as a pass through.
  (DoD to audit 8(a) sole source contracts - Social media platform X)
• New legislation in the House would put new restraints around the Department of Homeland Security’s use of facial recognition and related technologies. The Realigning Mobile Phone Biometrics for American Privacy Protection Act would establish stronger standards around DHS’s use of mobile biometric identification tools. House Democrats sponsoring the bill say Immigration and Customs Enforcement has been using an unproven biometric identification tool on American citizens in recent months. ICE has been using the tool called Mobile Fortify to help determine a person’s legal status.
  (Thompson introduces legislation to curb unchecked DHS mobile biometric surveillance and protect privacy of American citizens - House Homeland Security Committee Democrats )
• One agency is easing up on in-office work requirements, while another is ordered to consider more exceptions. The Office of Workers' Compensation Programs is offering remote work to some of its employees because of limited office space. An agency memo states that while most of its employees benefit from in-person collaboration, employees in roles eligible for remote work are less collaborative and require distraction-free focus. Meanwhile, a third-party arbitrator is directing the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to meet with one its unions to discuss exemptions to its return to office mandate.
  (One agency eases in-office work requirements, while another is ordered to consider exceptions - Federal News Network)
• The Department of Veterans Affairs is looking for a permanent leader to oversee its benefits division. VA’s deputy secretary is heading up the search for an under secretary for benefits. Once a candidate is selected, they will need to be confirmed by the Senate before starting the job. Under the Trump administration, the Veterans Benefits Administration has reduced its backlog of benefits claims by 60%.
  (VA starts search for permanent Veterans Benefits Administration leader - Department of Veterans Affairs)
• Transportation Security Administration employees will continue to have a union after a new court ruling. A federal judge ruled that TSA and the Department of Homeland Security violated a court order when it made a second attempt to eliminate TSA collective bargaining rights late last year. Judge Jamal Whitehead’s ruling last week blocked a September DHS directive that would have dissolved TSA’s collective bargaining agreement. Whitehead found DHS and TSA’s action would violate a preliminary injunction issued last June that stopped the department’s first attempt to eliminate the agreement. The fight over TSA union rights is scheduled to go to trial this September.
  (Judge finds TSA violated court order in new attempt to dissolve union - Federal News Network)
• The Defense Logistics Agency is turning to artificial intelligence to improve its demand planning. The agency has begun ingesting maintenance, consumption and supply data into its models, starting with the Army and expanding next to the Navy and Air Force, with additional work underway for the Marine Corps. The goal is to more accurately forecast demand, improve inventory health and ensure the right items are on the shelf. DLA is currently about 60% accurate when it comes to demand planning. The agency is also using AI to get after our administrative and production lead times.
  (DLA to use AI to improve demand planning - AFCEA Army IT Day)
• A bipartisan group of lawmakers is pushing to hold military family housing contractors financially accountable for remediation, relocation and property loss. For decades, service members and their families have been exposed to hazardous conditions in privatized military housing; military families are dealing with black mold, contaminated water and asbestos, among other issues. A new bill introduced by Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) would establish Defense Department–wide standards for acceptable humidity levels, create a 24/7 hotline and website for reporting hazards, require third-party oversight and impose penalties for noncompliance, including withholding fees and allowing tenants to retain their rent. “Now it's time for legislation to protect our military families, 700,000. That's right, 700,000 service members and their families presently face hazardous conditions that may cause respiratory illness, developmental delays, other kinds of severe diseases and effects, rashes, neurological symptoms, vision loss, seizures and chronic conditions.”
  (Lawmakers want to hold military housing contractors financially accountable - Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.))

The post Justice Dept recovers more money than ever in 2025 for False Claims Act violations first appeared on Federal News Network.

The Postal Service’s regulator is setting limits on how often the agency can set higher prices for its monopoly mail products.

The Postal Regulatory Commission ruled on Tuesday that the USPS, starting in March, can only raise mail prices once a year. This limit will remain in place through Sept. 30, 2030.

The commission eased restrictions on USPS mail prices in December 2020, when the agency was reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic, and was months away from running out of cash.

Since then, USPS has generally raised mail prices every January and July. Despite setting higher prices, the mail agency is seeing deeper net losses each year, and is far from achieving the “break-even” goal of its 10-year reform plan. In July 2025, USPS raised the price of a first-class stamp to 78 cents.

Members of the commission wrote in their order that the Postal Service’s long-term financial problems “cannot be resolved by using pricing authority alone.”

Regulators said they gave USPS this pricing flexibility largely because it’s delivering less mail to households — but still going to 163 million addresses at least six days a week — and because the agency, up until recently, was required to prefund health benefits for its retirees well into the future. Congress eliminated this prefunding mandate in April 2022, as part of the Postal Service Reform Act, a long-awaited reform package that helped USPS avoid $107 billion in costs.

As the bill made its way through Congress, Pete Sessions (R-Texas), the current chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee’s government operations subcommittee and co-chairman of the Delivering Outstanding Government Efficiency (DOGE) Caucus, warned USPS not to keep raising prices.

“We’ve got to make sure stamps don’t go to 60 cents, don’t go to 70 cents, don’t go to 80 cents,” Sessions said during a committee hearing in May 2021. At the time of the hearing, the price of a first-class stamp was 55 cents.

Even with congressional intervention and new pricing flexibility, the Postal Regulatory Commission found “things did not go well” for USPS.

“Declines in the Postal Service’s financial situation, volume, and service performance have remained significant, if not worsened,” the PRC wrote.

USPS ended fiscal 2025 with a $9 billion net loss. The regulator said limiting USPS to a single rate increase each year is unlikely to have a significant impact on its revenue.

USPS did not attempt to provide its own estimate of how much additional revenue it received from the second rate each year. But PRC estimates that it brought in, at most, $700 million in additional revenue each year — about one-to-three days of USPS operating costs.

The PRC said that revenue is “nowhere near enough” to make up for $25 billion in net losses over the past three years, and would “likely not be sufficient to resolve the Postal Service’s medium-term or long-term financial issues.”

USPS declined to raise mail prices in January 2025 or January 2026. The regulator said those decisions suggest that the revenue from these rate increases “is not essential to the Postal Service’s short-term financial stability.”

Last summer, the USPS Board of Governors urged its regulator not to put limits on its ability to set higher mail prices. Governor Ron Stroman, a former deputy postmaster general, said it “would be a mistake” for the commission to override the board’s pricing decisions.

Stroman said the USPS board is in the “best position to determine how to best utilize the pricing authority and make decisions about specific price increases for market-dominant products.”

“Based on the data I have reviewed, I have concluded that twice-a-year price increases have maximized the Postal Service’s revenue during the post-pandemic period of high inflation,” he said. “However, I can certainly envision future scenarios where we conclude that the factors we consider in exercising our business judgment weigh against a twice-a-year price increase.”

Governor Dan Tangherlini, a former head of the General Services Administration, agreed that USPS should “maintain authority over pricing.”

Ann Fisher, one of the PRC’s commissioners, dissented with the majority. She wrote that limiting higher mail prices “leaves only the Postal Service worse off.”

“While this order provides to mailers long-sought relief, it limits the Postal Service’s ability to respond to rising costs such as inflation, labor, delivery, network costs, etc.,” Fisher wrote.

USPS spokeswoman Marti Johnson said in a statement that the agency is “very disappointed” by the regulator’s decision.

“It is hard for the Postal Service to consider a holistic review of the rate-setting system to be one that begins with a modification that leaves only the Postal Service worse off,” Johnson said.

Mike Plunkett, a former USPS manager for pricing strategy and innovation and manager of retail alliances, now the president of PostCom, a national association of companies that rely on the mail to conduct business, said the mailing industry has repeatedly warned USPS that it “would not be able to price its way out of its predicament.”

“Prices have been going up faster than ever, at the same time that overall service quality has been reduced,” Plunkett said.

USPS set lower targets for on-time mail delivery in 2025. In 2021, it implemented slower delivery standards for nearly 40% of first-class mail. USPS saw persistent regional delays in mail delivery as a result of a major restructuring of its mail processing infrastructure. It’s also running trucks less often between its mail processing plants and post offices to transport mail.

Last month, USPS clarified that postmarks on mail and packages reflect when they arrive at processing facilities, not when they are dropped off in a mailbox or post office. The final rule is likely to affect some time-sensitive mail, including mail-in ballots.

In a recent press release, USPS touted improved delivery metrics during the holiday season. The agency said it delivered mail and packages within 2.5 days on average between mid-November and early January — an improvement from 2.8 days on average the previous year. It also saw a 23% reduction in calls to its customer help line and a 44% decrease in package-related customer service inquiries.

An industry report from March 2024 found that these twice-a-year price increases drove away more mail volume than USPS anticipated.

“Every year, I lose members. Every year, I have members that have to close facilities and lay people off. And if that’s being done, just so you can keep the Postal Service’s doors open for an extra couple of days, I don’t think that’s an appropriate tradeoff,” Plunkett said.

The commission wrote that it “strongly encourages the Postal Service to consider and analyze the effect of previous rate increases upon the general public, business mail users, and private delivery enterprises before proposing new rate increases.”

Kathy Siviter, executive director of Alliance of Nonprofit Mailers, said the twice-a-year price hikes were “driving mail volume out of the system at a faster rate” for nonprofits than the COVID-19 pandemic or the 2008 recession.

“As people leave the system, they find other ways to handle their communications. Some of those are not necessarily as effective, but particularly for nonprofits, it comes down to the cost,” Siviter said.

Postmaster General David Steiner told Reuters in an interview last month that USPS could run out of cash by early 2027. Siviter said Steiner repeated that warning during a meeting with industry members this week.

“I don’t know how many times he said it — ‘We’re running out of money in 14 months. We’re running out of money in 14 months,’” Siviter said. “They’ve done this before. We see it as a bit of a scare tactic. It’s never happened. They’ve been this close many times before, and something will happen. Either they’ll make some money somewhere, or Congress will step in.”

According to Siviter, Steiner told mailers that one of his top priorities is to convince Congress to raise its borrowing limit with the Treasury Department in order for the mail agency to proceed with its network modernization initiatives. USPS has currently maxed out its $15 billion borrowing limit with the Treasury.

In a bid to bring in added revenue, USPS is looking to open up its last-mile delivery network to more shippers.

USPS already has agreements with shipping giants like Amazon and UPS to get their packages to their final destination, but it’s giving other delivery companies an opportunity to strike similar deals. Last-mile delivery is the most expensive leg of deliveries, and USPS goes to more addresses than its private-sector competitors. USPS will accept bids from companies in late January or early February.

The agency plans to hold an invite-only symposium next week at the International Spy Museum — across the street from USPS headquarters —for shippers to learn more about how to place bids.

The post Postal regulator limits USPS to once-a-year price hikes for mail through 2030 first appeared on Federal News Network.

Interview transcript:

Terry Gerton I suspect that most people don’t know that Medicare funds graduate medical education. This is a topic you’ve looked into quite a bit at GAO. Give us an overview of this situation first.

Leslie Gordon Medicare is the biggest funder of graduate medical education. There are a number of federal programs that fund graduate medical education, but Medicare is the primary funder, funding about $22 billion in 2023. We’ve been looking at it over a course of years, because that’s a chunk of change to look at and understand if it’s being effective. Over the course of our work in 2017, 2018, we’ve noticed that there’s a misalignment; there’s an unevenness in how medical residency is distributed across the country and where those graduate medical education dollars go.

Terry Gerton How’s it supposed to work?

Leslie Gordon Well, the impetus behind funding for graduate medical education is to ensure we have a well-trained workforce. And indeed, it should be distributed across the country so that people have access to services. And Medicare cares about having trained providers to care for all the Medicare beneficiaries across the country.

Terry Gerton So the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021, if we can take our minds back that far, put in some provisions maybe to try to address this misallocation of graduate medical education, and you’ve just published a report on that. Tell us about what you found in terms of the first three years of this program.

Leslie Gordon Our report is an interim report. The Consolidated Appropriations Act of ’21 funded 1,000 new residency positions. That’s in a framework of over 163,000 medical residents. So it’s not a lot of positions, but it’s designed to alleviate situations where hospitals would like to expand, or smaller hospitals would like to open new medical residency programs, and to direct some attention to underserved communities.

Terry Gerton And as you looked at the distribution of those thousand positions, what did you find?

Leslie Gordon We found that awarded hospitals were very similar to those that applied who were not awarded. So we did a comparison to look at, were there any biases in how these positions were being distributed when CMS was distributing them? Or, did they follow the rules and the categories set out in the CAA? And generally, the awardees and those that were not awarded were similar in nature. There was an effort and an impetus to focus on underserved areas, particularly rural areas, as we noted earlier. And while there wasn’t a redistribution of a majority of positions going to rural areas, there was an emphasis and a success in funding the rural hospitals that applied. Ten rural hospitals applied, nine were awarded. That’s different from about 50% of urban hospitals that applied that were awarded.

Terry Gerton Sounds like this really didn’t get to the crux of putting more residents in urban hospitals.

Leslie Gordon It didn’t put more residents necessarily in urban hospitals. It put more residents everywhere, let me say that. It emphasized and allowed for more residency positions and programs in rural and underserved areas. But with a small portion of residencies that were being awarded, it’s a big pile to redistribute and only have a thousand pieces with which to do that.

Terry Gerton I’m speaking with Leslie Gordon. She’s director for Medicare at GAO. Are there particular issues that the smaller or rural hospitals faced in terms of applying for this program or really making the best use of the resources that could potentially be available?

Leslie Gordon In the course of our work, we talked to representatives from hospitals in all kinds of areas, including rural hospitals. We talked to some hospitals and we talked to hospital associations. We heard that CMS’s use of the health professional shortage area as the primary criterion for distributing and allocating prioritization of who would be awarded got in the way for some smaller communities and those that might be training in rural areas or serving rural residents that traveled out of their local area to seek care. The way in which it didn’t quite land for rural areas is that the HPSA score is based on a population-to-provider ratio. And if you add one new doctor to population of a thousand people, that can really change the score a lot, as opposed to adding one new doctor to a population of 200,000 people. In that way, it wasn’t quite aligned with the goal of focusing on rural areas.

Terry Gerton And so, are there changes that CMS could make to this distribution model in the last couple of years of this program to help address those shortcomings?

Leslie Gordon We provided this feedback and other feedback to CMS as a part of the course of our work. They have two more rounds to distribute. And one of the things we also learned about is that hospitals needed other funding to make good use of these additional spots, these additional residency spots. I think being more aware of upfront costs, the need to maintain accreditation, and some of the challenges that we highlight in our report will help CMS, perhaps, and those who apply.

Terry Gerton If CMS does adjust the criteria or support, are there metrics that they should track to make sure that the changes are working?

Leslie Gordon CMS is tracking the metrics that were set out in the Consolidated Appropriations Act, and we will be looking at and reporting again in 2027.

Terry Gerton So when you think about this over the next couple of years, are there things that Congress, or educators, or other folks should watch to gauge whether or not these new slots are meeting workforce goals? Are they helping advance the accreditation or the certification of young medical students?

Leslie Gordon I think the experience of awarding these positions helps highlight that it’s not just funding that will solve the problem in terms of distribution of medical residency. There’s a support infrastructure that needs to be there in terms staffing, in terms equipment, in terms considering the types of experiences that medical residents need to have to be fully trained. So we cover all these things in our report and I think that this experience with the allocation of the thousand positions helps highlight all the infrastructure that’s needed to support medical residency training.

Terry Gerton Are there companion programs designed to address those infrastructure shortcomings?

Leslie Gordon The federal government actually has 72 programs. Yes, there’s a lot of programs and there are 72 health care workforce programs. And we have open recommendations from our prior work that HHS needs to examine the gaps in the workforce and take action to address those gaps and needs to communicate around them. We have other open recommendations that they don’t have the information necessary to identify and evaluate the cost effectiveness of those 72 programs. So we do have open work, not directly related to this report, but we have open recommendations that focus in on the need to have better information and truly evaluate the effectiveness of all of the Work First programs in a comprehensive way.

Terry Gerton And do you have a sense that CMS and HHS are taking on that task to sort of harmonize all of these programs so that they make sense and they are optimized for best outcomes?

Leslie Gordon They are making progress on our recommendations and we will continue to follow up to see how they progress.

The post Medicare-funded medical residencies falling short of goals: Report first appeared on Federal News Network.

Interview transcript:

 

Mike Meese When you think about it, [2025] had as many changes for the federal workforce and for military service members as we have had almost in the last 60 years that was not during wartime. You know, if you think about it we had massive changes after 9/11, an external crisis. We had massive changes after the 2008-2009 Great Recession; another economic crisis and obviously massive changes after COVID. But here we had the election of President Trump, and in a lot of ways that he came in was adjusting for the expansions of government that took place during the last three crises, where he peeled back a lot of that. People may agree with it, people may disagree with it, but it certainly had a huge impact on people in the military, people that were veterans that were serving in the civilian workforce and many other aspects of government.

Terry Gerton Give us a couple of examples of things you saw there at Armed Forces Mutual.

Mike Meese A lot of our members, a lot of our folks were former military, they end up now working for the federal government and were given the option of the early retirement. Consequently, many of them had to go through very rapidly and assess, what is my financial situation? How much longer can I work? If I take this fork in the road, so to speak, is my family going to be secure? Again, without knowing the unknown of what happens if you leave federal service, are there going to be jobs that are going to be out there within the economy? At the same time, you had other pretty radical changes. It wasn’t an economy that you knew that you were jumping out into. There was the liberation day, so to speak, on the first of April when the tariffs were put in place, and there was substantial economic uncertainty. So it was, there’s one government train that you were on that you might want to step off of, and if you recall back earlier in this year, many economists felt that we were going to go into a recession. Fortunately, we managed to avoid that. The market continues to do well. The economy actually seems to continue to be doing well in spite of some of the mastications of a lot of economists.

Terry Gerton Were there any changes you saw in the past year that you’d want to make sure continue?

Mike Meese Well, I think being able to be respectful of government workers and giving them the options wherever you did. The people in the Department of Veterans Affairs talked very rapidly about that they were going to try to take down 80,000 workers. Most of those have tended to be by voluntary separations or not hiring new people, and it’s had an impact on the workforce. But as much as possible, respecting the wishes of government workers and being able to do that has been a positive thing. Also, it will be very interesting because, as sort of a studier of this from a public policy perspective, the president has really stretched the bounds of executive power, and now courts and increasingly the Congress are peeling that back. One example was when the president adjusted the collective bargaining rights of many federal workers, Congress has recently started to peel that back. And so the question is, are many of these changes that were done unilaterally by the executive going to stand the test of time as a powerful president doing things? Whether you agree or disagree with them, unless they become institutionalized, we will tend to revert back to where we were before.

Terry Gerton That’s helpful insight. Certainly one of the things that marked the calendar year 2025, the beginning of fiscal year 2026, was the government shutdown, the longest lapse in appropriations ever. I think so many folks don’t understand the tenuousness of many service members and veterans’ financial status. And whether they missed a SNAP payment or they missed up a paycheck, many were really significantly impacted. Talk us through that and what you saw at Armed Forces Mutual.

Mike Meese Yeah, it’s unfortunate, but somewhere in between a quarter and a third of service members are just one or two paychecks away that if they had a $400 extraordinary expense, that would really set them back. And so consequently, although fortunately, the shutdown was resolved and no military paychecks did not take place, there was a heck of a lot of uncertainty in that. For Armed Forces Mutual, for example, we have a lot of people that pay us their insurance payments by allotment. Normally we get those allotments four days before payday, or we get the information from the Defense Finance and Accounting Service four days before payday. We actually did not get them until about 12 hours before payday. So it literally was the federal government putting things together right before the 31st of October to be able to get things done. And that anxiety for us, and I’m sure every other military-supporting organization, all the banks and everybody else, were working right at the last minute. Service members were postponing vacations. The biggest issues that we saw was people that were literally in the middle of a permanent change of station and the funds either would not come through for that, or maybe they were supposed to go into government quarters, but it was not an essential person that was going to inspect those government quarters. So they’re living on the economy having to pay for a hotel bill while they were moving into those quarters. And so although it did not affect everybody across the board, there were selected pockets where people ended up with some very extraordinary expenses that they might not have been prepared for.

Terry Gerton Mike, there was some proposed legislation that would perhaps mitigate this in the future. What’s your sense of its possibility?

Mike Meese The good news was, and I think we talked about this when we talked in October, everything in the law says that people that were going to be furloughed were in fact going to get back pay. And when this passed, part of the law was for individuals to get back pay. That ought to be permanently part of that law so that you remove the uncertainty and the potential threats that people are not going to get paid on that. In fact, what we really ought to do is find a way for Congress and the executive to work together to get all 13 bills passed by the end of the fiscal year. And that way, you don’t run into this challenge. In fact, this shutdown is probably a good example because I don’t think, whether you’re on one side or the other, anybody hugely politically benefited from this one way or the other. People will write op-eds about it, but nobody outside of Washington cares about that. They just know that government didn’t function for almost a month and a half.

Terry Gerton I’m speaking with Mike Meese. He’s the president of Armed Forces Mutual. Mike, what lessons do you want to make sure that service members, families and veterans take from 2025?

Mike Meese Well, the first is, just following up on the shutdown, some people, especially federal civilian workers, they got lump sum pays in November, at the end of November, where they deferred going out to dinner, deferred vacation or deferred other spending in October. When you get that lump sum pay, that’s actually a good opportunity because you can’t go back out to dinner like you were going to in October. Save that money, set it aside in an emergency fund. Prepare for future potential shutdowns and put the money toward your long-term goals. So that, I think, would be a very important thing. The second thing is, be prepared yourself, always. And that’s keeping your skills up, keeping your resume handy, keeping that LinkedIn profile there. I don’t know what will happen in the future in terms of other federal government shutdowns or opportunities for a deferred retirement system, but it’s always something that people should bear in mind that, especially since we have seen that government jobs that they thought were going to be permanent may not be permanent, you’ve got to be able to have other options.

Terry Gerton Well, speaking of that smart financial planning, any advice for folks who are navigating financial stress through the holidays or perhaps just after?

Mike Meese Well, that is always a challenge. What I tell people, we sometimes have gotten a little bit of a habit; back during COVID when you couldn’t travel, you tended to get more extravagant gifts for the family that you were not visiting. Now that you’re visiting and traveling to them, recognize that just being there is part of that gift, so you don’t need to be quite as lavish on the expenditures. The other thing that I talk with military families, there was one Christmas where I had five members of our family, it turned out that visiting two sets of relatives, we actually flew on Christmas day. And if you fly on Christmas, it’s actually a very cheap fare. It’s kind of strange being in the airport on Christmas but all the flight attendants and pilots are wearing hats and singing Christmas carols. They have to work that day and it turned out to save us a lot of money for a family of five. So there are ways that you can get deals even during the holidays.

Terry Gerton And as you turn your attention to 2026, what legislation or policy changes will you be watching for as the new year begins?

Mike Meese Well, it’ll be very interesting what happens with federal government workers as well as the military. Currently in the National Defense Authorization Act, the military pay increase is going to be 3.8%. And so that is actually ahead of inflation. For me as a military retiree, my pay increase as military retiree and Social Security age is only 2.8%, so the military is doing a little bit better. Federal workers, on the other hand, are going to get a 1% increase, except if they are in federal law enforcement positions, like the FBI, Customs and Border Protection, Secret Service and any other federal border law enforcement. The proposal is for them to get a 3.8% increase, the same as the military. So when you do get that pay increase, whether it’s 1% as a civilian worker, well you’ll be a little bit behind inflation, or 3. 8% in the military or law enforcement, be sure to use that judiciously and maybe put some of that away into savings because you don’t know what will end up happening in 2026.

The post From paychecks to policy shifts, 2025 tested military families. How will they fare in 2026? first appeared on Federal News Network.

Interview transcript:

 

Terry Gerton You have done some recent research that connects in very detailed ways the accuracy of census data to federal funding programs. Walk us through the high points and what’s at stake now as we look to 2030.

Sean Moulton Everyone knows that every 10 years we do a full census of the entire population here in the United States. And we’ve done it really since the founding of the country. But it’s not just an academic exercise just to figure out how many people are in each state or anything like that. We use that data in a very robust way. One of those ways is helping to guide our federal funding. What we’ve been looking into is, how much funding are we talking about that gets guided by the census? And what we found is 371 federal assistance programs that we can connect to census data in terms of guidance. And it gets guided in a number of ways. There’s some very simple ways where the census data can be, say, an on-off switch. The easiest example of this is funds maybe going to a rural area, or funds for an urban area. Urban-rural designation is entirely based on the number of people you have. You don’t have many people, population density is low, then you’re rural. That’s all there is to it. And so that census data getting that accurate can turn on or off money going to those types of areas. And there’s formulas where different pieces of census data go into an exact formula that figures out how much your area, your state, your county, your city or something like that might get. If you get the census data wrong, it could impact how much money’s coming to your area. A third area is a little bit more nebulous, but it’s definitely something we can track. Some programs accept applications and they can score and evaluate those applications on a variety of criteria, but they’re always transparent about it. And sometimes census data can come into play. Maybe the program is really geared and they want to help lower income areas or areas with historically disadvantaged communities. And so census data can be used to determine that, and your application might get extra points. And then the last way is for some of our loan programs, census data can even influence the interest rate that you might have to pay back. So it can affect how much money gets out and then how much you have to paid back. And these 371 programs, they accounted for $2.2 trillion in a single fiscal year, just one year.

Terry Gerton Was there anything about the 2020 Census or recent funding formulas that raised flags for you, that you want to make sure get addressed before we get to 2030?

Sean Moulton Every census, problems happen. It’s a huge endeavor, trying to count everyone in the country, at the same time, exactly where they are. We always have errors. But 2020 was one of the first years we did a lot more digital records. We were using what’s called administrative records to try and fill in some gaps from non-responses. And so we really need to address those. There are also a number of states that had statistically significant undercounts or overcounts, and those are particularly troubling. We need states and locations, especially in the areas that had previous undercounts, to make more of an effort in the run up to 2030 to make sure they get the count right.

Terry Gerton I’m speaking with Sean Moulton. He’s a senior policy analyst at the Project on Government Oversight. Let’s dig into those undercounts a little bit. Are there communities that are most vulnerable to being undercounted? And when they are undercounted, what is the impact?

Sean Moulton There are, and Census Bureau knows this and has made efforts over the years to do better outreach to what they call hard-to-count communities, or historically hard-to-count, communities. And these are lower income communities, because of the digital divide; these are rural communities; these are renters. Children are hard to count for some reason; even though the parents are filling out the forms, they might not include their children for some reason. Maybe they don’t understand it applies to everybody. Non-English speakers, not primary English speakers, sometimes they don’t understand the forms or understand the necessity to respond. So there’s a lot of different groups that are harder than the average citizen, we’ll say, to get those responses back from. This is where states and cities and counties can do a better job of reaching out and making sure their community members know the importance of the census, not just as a legal activity, but as something that helps the community and then responds.

Terry Gerton The census is supposed to count every single person, right? Citizens and non-citizens. We had the addition of a citizenship question in 2020. Certainly we’ve had a lot of focus under the Trump administration on citizenship. What impact do you think that’s going to have leading into the 2030 count?

Sean Moulton So in 2020, we had an attempt to add a citizenship question, and it went all the way to the Supreme Court and they tossed it out on a procedural issue. They said, it’s a question you can ask. It’s been in the census before, but they did it in the wrong way, their process was wrong, flawed. So we may be seeing another fight over that. The real problem with the citizenship question is there’s not much evidence that it’s going to give us anything of importance. More importantly, a lot of what we use the census for, it doesn’t matter if you’re a citizen. The funding for hospitals or healthcare or roads — the roads don’t care if you are a citizen and driving on them, or if you a non-citizen and driving them, and we need to repair the roads based on the wear and tear and how many people are there. The same for mass transit and other things. We’re funding for everyone. And so, if we try and narrow our ask to citizens, we’re going to get our allocations of funds wrong, and citizens will then be also penalized. They’ll have roads that aren’t being repaired fast enough and they’ll have problems getting into emergency rooms and what have you. Citizens will also be affected because they will encounter the problems that the low funding leads to: poor maintenance on the roads, longer wait times for their health care. And so even though they may think this is about citizens/non-citizens, everyone’s affected when the funding gets impacted.

Terry Gerton Do you have a sense that members of Congress understand this connection? I mean, at the core, one of their jobs is to bring home money to their districts. If the census count is accurate, the better their funding will be. And yet, do you think they really understand the importance of the accuracy here?

Sean Moulton I don’t. You know, it is pretty buried. We had to do a lot of research to figure out the extent of this. And I can tell you that just a few years ago, the Census Bureau used to do a report somewhat along these lines, and their number was much, much lower. It’s only been in recent years that we’ve kind of expanded our understanding to realize just how important the Census Bureau numbers are in terms of guiding federal funds.

Terry Gerton Are there steps that Congress or the Census Bureau should take now to improve accuracy coming into the 2030 census? I mean, five years seems like a long way off, but Census is already getting ready.

Sean Moulton  A lot of people don’t realize there’s a lot that happens in between those 10 years, but right now probably one of the biggest things would be to get ready to participate in what’s called LUCA, Local Update of Census Addresses. And this is a process that the Census Bureau runs in the run-up to every decennial census where they reach out and they try and get participation of local officials — county, city, state — to update the addresses they have. And an interesting fact is, if the Census Bureau doesn’t have your address, then it doesn’t matter if you fill out the form or not. You can’t be counted. The address comes before the household’s response. And so if somehow you’re living in a recently refurbished apartment over a garage and the post office doesn’t have that address officially on file as a new residence, then you’re not going to get counted. And so we really need to update those addresses and keep them as up-to-date as possible because it’s the first step to getting the responses back.

Terry Gerton Just to wrap up sort of on a more systematic note, is having this much federal funding dependent on the census the best way to go forward? Are there other funding formulas that we should use? Maybe even, wrong, it is the best source of data that we have.

Sean Moulton It is. Obviously, there’s other funding formulas that get used; 371 is not the majority of federal programs out there. But when you’re talking about trying to assist individuals and households, then the census data really can help us find those households and say, inside a state or inside a city, how much should they get? And we’re going to use data to help drive and allocate those rather than simply dividing it up into one-fiftieth and every state gets that amount. It doesn’t make any sense. If one state needs more, it should get more, and the census data, while we’ve had our problems, is still a very accurate number based on getting a lot of the money allocated. We get some things wrong and we’re always trying to improve that, but it’s still an incredibly useful tool for the federal government and for private individuals. Corporations use a lot of census data to figure out where they’re going to put their next grocery store or what have you. That’s because it has proven to be such a reliable tool to help guide those kinds of decisions.

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