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Talking to Kim Jong Un Could Help Freeze His Nuclear Ambitions

25 September 2025 at 10:51
OPINION — North Korea’s Kim Jong Un publicly announced that he’s prepared to meet with President Donald Trump: “If the US drops its hollow obsession with denuclearization and wants to pursue peaceful coexistence with North Korea based on the recognition of reality, there is no reason for us not to sit down with the US. Personally, I still have a good memory of US President Trump.” The Korean Central News Agency published Mr. Kim’s comments, made a few days ago at a parliamentary meeting in Pyongyang.

I’m not surprised by Mr. Kim’s comments. When the Six Party Talks with North Korea commenced in 2003, North Korea’s principal representative to the Talks often mentioned that North Korea wanted nuclear weapons as a deterrent, never to be used for offensive purposes. They asked to be treated as we treated Pakistan, a country that has good relations with the U.S. The North Korean representative said North Korea wanted a good, normal relationship with the U.S., promising to be a good partner. with the U.S.

North Korea has consistently been told that the U.S. would never accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state. But with complete and verifiable denuclearization, North Korea would receive security assurances, sanctions relief, economic development assistance, to include the provision of Light Water Reactors for civilian purposes and eventual normalization of relations with the U.S. Mr. Kim’s father, Kim Jong il, seemingly accepted this U.S. offer and in September 2005, North Korea did agree to a Joint Statement committing North Korea to complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

That was 2005. The situation has changed profoundly over the past twenty years. North Korea now has a formidable arsenal of nuclear weapons; some estimates are between 50 and 60 nuclear warheads, reportedly with sufficient fissile material to annually produce 15 to 20 nuclear warheads that can be miniaturized and mated to ballistic missiles.

North Korea’s sixth nuclear test in 2017 was assessed to be a test of a thermonuclear weapon. And in 2024, North Korea successfully launched the Hwasong/19, a mobile, solid fuel ballistic missile capable of targeting the whole of the U.S. In addition to advances in nuclear weaponization and ballistic missiles, North Korea has made significant progress with Hypersonic and cruise missiles and advances with its nuclear submarine program.

Of note is North Korea’s new mutual defense treaty with the Russian Federation and the 12,000 combat troops North Korea sent to Russia for its war with Ukraine. In addition to the troops, North Korea has provided Russia with large quantities of artillery shells and ballistic missiles. In exchange, Russia has provided North Korea with considerable technical support for its satellite and nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

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We are now dealing with a different North Korea. Mr. Kim is more self-confident, given his new relationship with Russia and his continued close allied relationship with China. Having two of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council ensures that North Korea no longer must be concerned with UN sanctions. And the pictures of Mr. Kim at the parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two in Beijing, standing next to China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, gave Mr. Kim significant international credibility, especially with the Global South.

A meeting of President Trump with Chairman Kim could develop into a series of meetings that could result in North Korea halting the further production of fissile material for nuclear weapons, with no additional nuclear tests and a moratorium on ballistic missile launches. This would be a major success for Mr. Trump and the U.S. It would also lessen tension with South Korea and Japan.

The “eventual” U.S. goal should continue to be complete and verifiable denuclearization. However, this doesn’t have to be up front. It’s an eventual goal that should be pursued as relations with North Korea improve, with an action-for action process: As North Korea halts the production of fissile material and stops producing more nuclear weapons and refrains from ballistic missile launches, UN sanctions imposed subsequent to 2016 could be lifted with security assurances and economic development assistance and a discussion of liaison offices in our respective capitals. North Korea should be encouraged to rejoin the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT).

Mr. Trump entering talks with Mr. Kim could develop into a relationship with North Korea that could prove beneficial for the U.S. and its allies and partners.

This column by Cipher Brief Expert Joseph Detrani was first published in The Washington Times.

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Global AI Leadership Requires More than the Best Models

22 August 2025 at 00:43

OPINION — Last month, the White House released its AI Action Plan, followed by an Executive Order aimed at promoting the export of the “American AI technology stack.” These actions come six months after Chinese startup DeepSeek surprise launched its highly capable, open source AI model and undercut confidence in American AI superiority over China.

Taken together, the White House’s approach doubles down on a “race to achieve global dominance in artificial intelligence,” while recognizing that to win this race we need broad global adoption of U.S. AI technology. But it appears the United States has not fully absorbed the lesson of DeepSeek for global technology competition.

Leading U.S. AI companies continue to tout their superior sophistication. But during my time at the White House and State Department promoting U.S. cyber and tech abroad, I observed that most countries aren't looking for the world's most advanced AI. They want AI that’s good enough to meet basic needs and is compatible with their existing systems. They’re looking for simple, turn-key solutions. DeepSeek allows China to provide that – and edge out American companies in dozens of countries.

In acknowledging the need for a “full stack” strategy, the White House has taken an important first step in supporting U.S. industry. But success will rely on whether policymakers can shift their focus away from the most glamorous, frontier tech, and devote energy and resources to a more holistic approach. To reclaim global AI leadership, the United States must become a one-stop-shop for the digital infrastructure AI relies on.

Why the Full Stack Matters

The most advanced AI companies still depend upon basic tech infrastructure, known as the digital stack, to deliver their services to the public. These include subsea cables, data centers, telecommunications, and satellites. Long before leading proprietary models like ChatGPT and Claude entered the picture, the United States and China competed to provide that digital foundation to developing countries.

Typically, American companies offer superior, more secure technology at higher prices than Chinese counterparts, who rely on state subsidies and decades of intellectual property theft to keep costs low. But China’s other comparative advantage has been its integrated solutions: Huawei bundles 5G with other offerings, like cloud services in Egypt or cybersecurity training in Indonesia, which comprehensively address developing countries’ needs. Often, countries decide that cost efficiency and the convenience of a package deal outweigh the risks of Chinese technology, like spying, authoritarian propaganda, and the threat of technology shutdowns as a tool of Chinese government coercion.

With DeepSeek's R1, the Chinese package now offers a powerful open-source large language model to customers already reliant on Chinese systems. For these countries, DeepSeek may be good enough to suit their needs; moreover, it doesn’t require the purchase of more trustworthy and costly digital infrastructure necessary to safely run more advanced American models.

China winning the AI race in the developing world brings significant risk for U.S. tech and commercial leadership as well as national security. Broad adoption of Chinese technology would give Chinese companies – and by extension the Chinese government – vast troves of data and favorable market access, with potential economic, political, and military advantages.

Moreover, as countries’ critical infrastructure - such as power grids, telecom networks, and ports - becomes reliant on Chinese technology, they become more vulnerable to Chinese coercion on matters of security, sovereignty, and trade. China is already using this influence to shape policy norms and technical standards for AI use around the world; it could also become a point of leverage for trade deals, critical mineral access, and port access, as we’ve seen with traditional infrastructure projects.

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Building a “Full Stack” Strategy that Meets the Moment

Despite these challenges, the United States still has advantages. Most countries prefer the quality and security of U.S. technology, including our leading AI models. But we need smart policies and an affirmative vision to effectively compete. Previous efforts have suffered from lack of follow-through, and relevant agencies will struggle with understaffing and uncertain resourcing in critical areas.

Last month’s Executive Order provides a good starting point; but as is so often the case, implementation will be the test. The executive order lays out a long missing mechanism for structured coordination between the federal government and U.S. technology companies, whose size, scale, and reach provide crucial advantages as we compete on the global stage – advantages that should be taken into consideration even as we review competition policies at home.

The order also references resources to level the playing field against unfairly advantaged Chinese competitors. Well-timed cybersecurity support, strategic loans from the Development Finance Corporation, access to planned undersea cable buildouts, and foreign assistance can be vital tools for advancing a trusted U.S. tech ecosystem. But these mechanisms can only succeed if the Administration signals to Congress that appropriately resourcing them is vital to advance U.S. interests – a prospect that is unclear at the moment.

Finally, we need to organize cyber, digital, and technology diplomacy as an integrated mission across government to support U.S. business. Last month’s order affirms the role of the Economic Diplomacy Action Group (EDAG) chaired by the Secretary of State to fill this function. But the Secretary of State’s dual role as National Security Advisor means limited bandwidth to carry forward this effort, and the State Department recently laid off many of its AI and technology experts and reorganized its cyber bureau.

A meaningful path forward will require agencies, especially the State Department, to address these gaps either through new hires or rehires, and delegate EDAG leadership to an official with the bandwidth and authority to coordinate disparate efforts across the government.

American AI leadership depends not just on recognizing the need for a “full stack” strategy, but meaningfully executing. If we can truly prioritize digital infrastructure as a foundational necessity for adoption of U.S. AI tech, we can meet this pivotal moment.

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

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How U.S. Dialogue Can Break the North Korea-Russia Alliance

12 August 2025 at 12:56

OPINION — It’s time to resume talks with North Korea. During the past five years, when we didn’t talk to North Korea, they built more nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to deliver nuclear bombs as far as the U.S. During this time, North Korea also established a close allied relationship with Russia, with a mutual defense treaty that resulted in North Korea sending over 12,000 combat troops to Russia’s Kursk region to join Russian forces in its war of aggression in Ukraine. North Korea is also providing Russia with significant quantities of artillery shells, ballistic missiles and drones. In short, North Korea is now Russia’s principal ally and supplier of weaponry for its war with Ukraine.

Logically, this should not have happened. No doubt, North Korea remembers the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union and the dissolution of their 1961 Peace and Friendship Treaty with the Soviet Union. This Treaty was replaced with a watered-down friendship treaty that made no mention of “mutual defense”. Russia ceased viewing North Korea as an ally. Russia’s focus at that time was on improving economic relations with South Korea.

North Korea’s pivot to Russia in 2024 was a smart tactical move. It put North Korea on center stage with the introduction of its troops and weaponry to aid Russia with its war with Ukraine, while messaging the U.S. and China that North Korea is an independent actor, not solely dependent on China and not fixated on a normal relationship with the U.S. North Korea’s message was and is: We can go it alone. And now we have Russia, a nuclear superpower that not only accepts our status as a nuclear weapons state, but provides us with the nuclear, missile and satellite technical support necessary to exponentially increase our nuclear and missile capabilities.

But is this what North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, really wants? Is this what his grandfather, Kim Il-Sung, and father, Kim Jong-Il, really wanted for North Korea? Certainly since 1994, North Korea’s focus was having a normal relationship with the U.S. For thirteen years, ending in October 2016, with my last face-to-face meeting with North Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister, I was repeatedly told that North Korea aspired to normal relations with the U.S., asking to be accepted as a nuclear weapons state, promising never to use these weapons offensively; they were a deterrent, to prevent war. And North Korea would be a good friend of the U.S., no longer tethered to China. They cited Pakistan as a model to emulate – “you did it with Pakistan, you can do it with us.”

In the next few weeks, there will be a summit between President Donald Trump and South Korea’s Lee Jae Myung. No doubt trade issues will be discussed, but I think a fair amount of time will be spent on national security issues and developments with North Korea.

A few days ago, Kim Yo-Jong, the powerful sister of Mr. Kim, said Kim Jong-Un’s relationship with Donald Trump wasn’t bad, implying that dialogue with the U.S. was possible. Ms. Kim conditioned such dialogue on the U.S. “accepting North Korea as a nuclear power.” Ms. Kim spoke of the changed reality since the Trump-Kim summits in Singapore (2018) and Hanoi (2019) and the symbolic DMZ meeting in 2019. And that changed reality is North Korea’s mutual defense treaty with Russia and its military assistance to Russia for its war in Ukraine, and the nuclear and missile support Russia is providing to North Korea. This new relationship with Russia has emboldened Mr. Kim, which could incite the North Korean leader to be overly aggressive and optimistic in his relationship with South Korea.

While saying dialogue with the U.S. was possible, Ms. Kim was clear in stating that South Korea was the enemy and the North was not interested in a dialogue with the South. Despite Ms. Kim’s harsh words for South Korea and the new Lee Jae-Myung government – which most South Koreans have become accustomed to hearing – the North recently stopped its harassing broadcasts to the South, apparently in response to the new Lee government halting all its broadcasts to North Korea, to include the National Intelligence Service’s daily broadcast of news, dramas and K-pop music.

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South Korea knows the U.S. position on North Korea retaining nuclear weapons has not changed: Complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. This was the language Mr. Kim’s father, Kim Jong-Il, accepted in the September 19, 2005, Joint Statement of the Six Party talks, and the language Mr. Kim personally accepted in the June 2018 Singapore summit – “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”

This is the time for President Donald Trump to personally reach out to Kim Jong-un and arrange for senior officials from both countries to meet to arrange for a third summit between the two presidents. No one wants a repeat of the failed Hanoi Summit, so preliminary arrangements must be thorough, with agreement on a deliverable – further meetings of the principals or their senior representatives and agreement on what the U.S. and North Korea are prepared to offer. For North Korea, they can and should halt all nuclear tests, fissile material production, ballistic missile launches, cyber and other illicit activities directed at the U.S. and end their military support to Russia for its war of aggression with Ukraine. For the U.S., the easing and lifting of sanctions imposed on and after 2016, economic development assistance, security assurances, a path to ending the Korean War with a peace treaty and the eventual establishment of liaison offices in our respective capitals.

The issue of denuclearization would initially encompass a statement from both sides as to their ultimate goals. For North Korea: Acceptance as a nuclear power. For the U.S.: Complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. This will be a subject further discussed, once we move to the lifting/removal of sanctions and North Korea halts nuclear tests and fissile material production and suspends missile launches. This likely will be a protracted process, requiring considerable time for negotiations.

President Donald Trump has the personal relationship with Kim Jong Un to resume talks with a North Korea that is building more nuclear weapons and missiles to deliver them, while embracing a revanchist Russian Federation.

This column by Cipher Brief Expert Ambassador Joseph DeTrani was first published in The Washington Times

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