Bitcoin’s price is fluctuating below the $90,000 mark as volatility increases across the entire cryptocurrency market. During the bearish price action, attention is now being shifted to the cautious signal from the Bitcoin Open Interest in BTC terms, which has remained below past all-time high in years.

Open Interest Tells A Different Story When Measured In BTC

Amid the ongoing volatile action of the crypto market, the derivatives market for Bitcoin is providing a more subdued message. This message is unfolding on the Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) in BTC terms as outlined in a recent research by Joao Wedson, a market expert and founder of the Alphractal analytics platform.

In the report shared on the X platform, the market expert highlighted that the open interest measured in BTC terms has failed to reach new all-time highs since 2022. The BTC-based perspective shows a more restricted usage of leverage over cycles, whereas dollar-denominated measures frequently climb in tandem with price.

On Thursday, the metric experienced a bounce, but Wedson stated that the upward move was mainly in USD-dominated open interest. This pattern suggests that traders are becoming more cautious in the market by allocating capital more carefully as opposed to putting it all into risky positions.

According to the expert, the trend simply suggests that speculation is present in the market and it’s currently expanding. However, the chart shows that the broader market is still far from any form of extreme or irrational euphoria. 

Not Enough Profit To Trigger A Bullish Recovery

BTC’s inability to produce another major rally is linked to the level of investors in profit. Darkfost stated that there are still not enough investors in profit to hope for a sustainable bullish recovery. Thus, it is crucial to understand that latent profits are not harmful to a market; it is quite the opposite.

When investors are most in profit, the situation is much more comfortable, which motivates them to hold. However, this only holds up to a certain point. Also, when the supply in profit surpasses 95% or even 100%, latest profits begin to impact the market and may trigger essential corrective phases.

The ongoing correction remained moderate with a drawdown to around 31%, but it was able to sharply reduce the percentage of supply in profit, suggesting very late entry by many investors. Currently, over 71% of BTC is in profit after dropping as low as 64%, a very concerning level that has typically been observed only when Bitcoin was entering a bear market. 

However, in Darkfost’s view, the market must reclaim above 75% supply in profit to regain a more stable structure. As long as it stays above this level, the supply in profit has historically been associated with positive periods, as shown in the chart. 

With the recent price rebound, the supply in profit saw a brief climb back to 75% before getting rejected. Meanwhile, many BTC investors possibly used this opportunity to exit at break-even or to cut their losses.

The crypto market was left in awe as the price of Bitcoin experienced a sudden surge, bringing the flagship asset dangerously close to the $100,000 mark. With the recent bounce, hopes for a retest of the current all-time high and beyond have reemerged. However, a crucial supply cluster continues to stand in the way.

A Fresh All-Time High Beckons For Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s price is gaining sharp upward traction as it retests the $98,000 price mark on Wednesday, a level last seen in November 2025. On-chain data shows that the crypto king is once again edging toward uncharted territory, with market structure pointing to a clear path toward a new all-time high.

However, there is a significant barrier between present levels and price discovery: a dense supply cluster created by investors who have previously made purchases in the same range. This range was highlighted by Glassnode, a leading on-chain data platform, after examining the BTC Long-Term Holder Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap.

Data from the key metric shows a dense cost-basis cluster between the $93,000 and $109,000 price range, which is forming a substantial overhead supply zone. The supply zone serves as a technical and psychological barrier where a large number of holders may be waiting to take profits or quit at breakeven, resulting in concentrated resistance.

At this level, any sustained push higher must first absorb this supply, with a decisive breakout above the range. If Bitcoin is able to absorb this overhead supply and push through it decisively, momentum could pick up pace quickly. Glassnode noted that this crucial range is usually expected to reopen the path toward a new all-time high for Bitcoin over the longer term.

According to Glassnode in another post, BTC has ushered in the new year with constructive momentum, printing two higher highs and extending its value toward the $98,000 price level. However, the platform stated that the leg up currently runs directly into a historically supply zone.

BTC Market Is Displaying Deleveraging Signals

Looking at Bitcoin’s current action from an on-chain perspective, the flagship asset is starting to show signs of deleveraging. This deleveraging indicates that excess speculation is being removed from the market after a period of high leverage and aggressive positioning.

Coin Bureau’s report shared on X points to a sharp decline in BTC Open Interest (OI) from $15 billion in October to $10 billion today, as leveraged traders get flushed out. The drop represents an over 30% decrease within the period. 

Interestingly, these deleveraging phases have often preceded major market bottoms, making this a critical moment for BTC. Nonetheless, should BTC continue to fall, more leverage is expected to still get wiped out.

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price was trading at $96,247, demonstrating a 1.29% increase in the last 24 hours. Data from CoinMarketCap shows that trading volume is down despite the bullish price action, dropping by more than 3% in the past day.