Following a fresh wave of bearish pressure on Friday, December 5, the price of Bitcoin has struggled beneath the psychological 90,000 level for much of the weekend. However, the latest on-chain data suggests that the premier cryptocurrency might be readying for its next healthy upward move.

BTC SOPR Drops To Lowest Level Since Early 2024

In a December 6 post on the X platform, CryptoOnchain hypothesized that a local bottom appears to be forming for the price of Bitcoin. According to the market pundit, the selling pressure, especially amongst long-term holders, seems to be fading off at the moment.

This market observation centers on the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which evaluates the profitability ratio of spent outputs for both long-term and short-term holders. This on-chain indicator evaluates whether market participants are selling their assets at a profit or at a loss.

Typically, when the Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio has a value greater than 1, it indicates that the investors are selling at a profit. On the flip side, an SOPR value less than 1 implies that the market participants are offloading their coins while in the red.

According to CryptoOnchain, the Bitcoin SOPR has now fallen to 1.35, its lowest level since early 2024. The market analyst noted that this metric’s latest movement suggests a complete reset in market profitability, especially as the price of BTC slid beneath the $90,000 mark.

Furthermore, CryptoOnchain highlighted that the heavy profit-taking phase by long-term holders appears to be coming to an end, as exhaustion and fatigue increasingly spread among the bears. From a historical perspective, the SOPR metric falling to this low signals a local bottom is forming for the BTC price, especially as the market cools down.

Ultimately, CryptoOnchain revealed that a price rebound at this point could set the stage for Bitcoin’s next healthy upward rally. 

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $89,500, reflecting no significant changes in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is down by nearly 2% in the last seven days. 

With the price of Bitcoin down year-to-date and from its all-time high of $126,080 by roughly 5% and 30%, respectively, the market leader looks set to end 2025 in the red—barring a sudden change in market momentum.

The Bitcoin market appears to be riddled with an increasing amount of sell-side pressure, as its recent price action reveals bears’ dominance. Interestingly, another on-chain evaluation suggests that the current market movement may be a direct effect of rising panic-induced sales. 

$1.7B Realized Losses Vs $605M Realized Gains

In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, GugaOnChain shared that the Bitcoin market has been in a capitulation phase in recent days. This on-chain observation revolves around the Bitcoin Realized Profit and Loss ($) metric.

For context, this metric tracks the actual profits (in US dollars) and losses investors realize—or lock in—whenever they offload their Bitcoin holdings to exchanges. 

GugaOnChain highlighted that about $1.705 billion worth of BTC has been realized in losses by market participants. On the other hand, a relatively smaller amount, totaling approximately $605 million, was reportedly realized in gains.

Source: CryptoOnchainThis disproportionate distribution in losses, as against the profits acquired, puts the Loss/Gain ratio at a 2.82 reading. This means that, for every dollar made in profit, almost 3 dollars are lost. 

Looking at the bigger picture, the analyst pointed out that 74% of the total realized volume leans towards the red side of the market, leaving a mere 26% of the Bitcoin market in profits. When realized losses surge rapidly to overcome gains, it is often interpreted as a sign of capitulation.

Historically, extreme capitulation events tend to set the pace either for price recovery or even deeper downside movement. These two possibilities, however, remain dependent on the integrity of available inflection points. 

Bulls Must Defend These Price Levels Or Risk Deeper Corrections

Although the market odds currently seem stacked against the bulls, as the price takes on a bearish structure, the analyst also identified a few important zones that may determine Bitcoin’s next direction. GugaOnChain explained that, in the scenario where the bulls continue to bleed, the next price level presenting an opportunity of redemption lies around $71,450.

This specific price level is critical, as it represents the realized price for investors who have acquired Bitcoin for about 12–18 months. 

Citing a more extreme scenario, the online pundit revealed that the next key support sits at $58,940. This zone is important as it is the realized price for investors whose coins are within the 18-month to 2-year age range.  

On the weekly timeframe, however, price zones around $80,000 and $74,000 appear significant enough for a short-term price recovery. A bullish reversal could take place if these price levels were to meet the present downturn with significant opposing strength. 

As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at around $89,331, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. 

The cryptocurrency market has had a year filled with ups and downs, with most large-cap digital assets turning in mixed performances in 2025. After a rough start to the year, things started to look up for the price of Bitcoin in the second and third quarters, as it set multiple all-time highs across the six-month period.

However, the flagship cryptocurrency has largely struggled in the final months of 2025, looking set to end the year in the red. Interestingly, the latest on-chain data and historical patterns suggest that the price of Bitcoin might be set for a fairly stronger yearly close than expected.

No Negative Days Left In 2025, But 2026 Could Feature A Deep Correction 

On Saturday, December 6, Alphractal CEO and founder Joao Wedson took to the X platform to share what to expect from the Bitcoin price in the last days of 2025. According to the on-chain expert, the market leader is likely to close the year in a sideways price range.

The relevant metric here is the Yearly Accumulated Negative Days, which tracks market resilience by measuring the number of days in a year where an asset’s daily price candlestick closed in the red. 

According to historical data and patterns, Bitcoin typically witnesses an average of 170 days of negative price movement in a year. This mean figure or level provides insight into the stress threshold for the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap. 

When the number of negative days is approaching or exceeds this threshold of 170 days, as Bitcoin already has in 2025, the selling pressure in the market tends to wane as fatigue sets in among the bears. Wedson revealed that the premier cryptocurrency has already accumulated 171 negative days so far in 2025.

The on-chain expert noted that exceeding this threshold “strongly suggests” that the price of Bitcoin might not witness any more negative days in the final few weeks of 2025. Wedson said that if a deeper correction is imminent for the market leader, it will most likely happen in the next year.

However, as the Alphractal founder highlighted, the Bitcoin price is more likely to end the year within a consolidation range. Adding further credence to this postulation is the lack of market demand, as seen with reduced capital influx into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $89,397, reflecting a mere 0.3% drop in the past 24 hours. 

According to the latest on-chain data, BitMine viewed the latest market downturn as an opportunity to further increase its exposure to Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. In two separate fresh buys, the Ethereum treasury firm expanded its holdings by over $199 million worth of Ether tokens.

BitMine Now Holds 3.08% Of Total Ether Supply

In a recent post on the social media platform X, blockchain data firm Lookonchain revealed that BitMine acquired $199 million worth of Ethereum in the past two days. This fresh round of accumulation included two separate buys; 41,946 ETH equivalent to $130.78 million on Friday, December 5 and 22,676 ETH worth $68.67 million on Saturday, December 6.

This latest acquisition spree brings the Ethereum treasury firm’s holdings to around $11.3 billion, solidifying its position as the world’s largest corporate Ether holder. With its continued accumulation of the largest altcoin over the past few months, BitMine now holds about 3.08% of the total Ether supply.

It is worth noting that BitMine’s aggression in the market comes while the hype around digital asset treasuries (DATs) have died down. While crypto asset acquisitions have slowed down among treasury companies, shareholders are losing significant amounts in value—as the market downturn continues to also affect crypto-related stocks.

However, BitMine’s general performance has been quite impressive, with the firm announcing its intention to pay crypto’s first-ever dividend to shareholders. What’s interesting is that the Ethereum treasury firm sits on a cash reserve of nearly $900 million, which could go into additional ETH purchases.

BitMine Buys The Dip While Ethereum Whales Take Profit

BitMine’s continued accumulation of Ether is a proof of its faith in the token’s long-term promise. However, this aggressive purchasing activity has somewhat been opposite to what the market trend is suggesting.

The Ethereum price is hovering around the $3,000 mark after a mild correction from its recent local high around $3,200. According to on-chain data, mid-sized whales (holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH) have kept significant selling pressure on the market.

Meanwhile, Alphractal also revealed that the large whales (with over 10,000 ETH) have remained much more in a neutral and calm state, showing only light distribution.

Whales are typically regarded as some of the most influential investors in the market, as their moves often give insights on a coin’s trajectory. While BitMine counts as a whale—due to its significant holdings, it is interesting to see the firm move in the opposite direction of other relevant market participants.

The Bitcoin market structure is believed to have undergone a massive shift since the significant price downturn seen on October 10, 2025. While the premier cryptocurrency has been on something resembling a recovery path since the market bloodbath, some sectors believe that the bear season has already kicked off.

With BTC sitting beneath its opening price of 2025, it is becoming increasingly difficult to make a bullish case for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Moreover, an interesting data point about a relevant class of Bitcoin investors has emerged, further adding credence to the beginning of a possible bear market. 

Are Bitcoin Treasury Firms Offloading Their Coins?

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant’s Head of Research, Julio Moreno, shared an on-chain insight to support the hypothesis that the Bitcoin bear market has started. This conclusion is based on the Balance Growth of an investor group known as the “dolphins.”

Dolphins refer to a group of crypto investors holding substantial amounts of a coin, placing them between small investors (shrimps) and the largest investors (whales). Specifically, Moreno described dolphins as wallet addresses with significant BTC holdings between 100 – 1,000 coins. 

According to the latest data from CryptoQuant, the growth in the Dolphins’ BTC holdings has slowed down in the past year and appears to be in a downward trend. Moreno believes that this negative change points to the emergence of a Bitcoin bear market.

Moreno revealed that these Dolphin addresses had increased year-over-year by roughly 965,000 BTC when the BTC price hit its current all-time high around $125,000. Now that the BTC price is nearly 30% below its record high, the Bitcoin Dolphins’ balance stands at around 694,000 coins.

Moreno wrote on X:

This address cohort includes ETFs and Treasury companies, which have also stopped buying.

More interestingly, the CryptoQuant Head of Research revealed that this investor group consists of ETF issuers and Treasury companies, which have stopped purchasing Bitcoin. According to data from SoSoValue, the US-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have posted net outflows in five out of the last six weeks.

Meanwhile, BTC and crypto treasury companies have struggled in the past few months, with retail investors losing tens of billions to the hype. While there have been rarely reports of crypto treasury sell-offs, this decline in these Dolphins’ holdings tells an entirely different story.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $89,151, reflecting an over 3% decline in the past 24 hours.

According to the latest report, the lower house of Poland’s parliament has failed to overturn the President’s veto of the Crypto-Asset Market Act. Earlier this week, the Polish President, Karol Nawrocki, vetoed a bill aimed at setting strict rules in the country’s digital assets market.

Why Did The Polish President Veto The Digital Asset Bill?

On Friday, December 5, Bloomberg reported that the lower house of the Polish parliament couldn’t secure the required three-fifths majority vote to override the President’s veto of the Crypto-Asset Market Act. This bill, introduced in June 2025, aimed to align Poland with the European Union’s MiCA framework for the digital asset markets.

Related Reading: Key Updates On The US Crypto Market Structure Bill: What You Need To Know

However, President Nawrocki decided against signing the crypto market legislation due to concerns that it may pose a real threat to the freedom of Poles, their property, and the stability of the country. According to the country’s leader, “overregulation” is one way to drive away new companies and investors, while seriously slowing innovation.

As Bitcoinist earlier reported, the crypto community in Poland had already raised concerns about the regulation as early as September, especially as the bill surpassed the European Union (EU) minimum regulatory requirements. 

For instance, the bill’s messaging read that all Crypto Asset Service Providers are required to obtain a license from the Polish Financial Service Authority (KNF). Meanwhile, the bill proposed heavy fines and potential prison time for market participants who break the law.

According to the Bloomberg report, supporters of the bill have also voiced out the need to provide regulatory oversight of Poland’s digital assets industry. Their belief is that clear, comprehensive rules are critical to fight fraud and avoid potential misuse of digital assets by bad actors. 

Poland’s Presidency Calls Crypto Bill A Legal Fiasco

Rafael Leskiewicz, the press secretary of the President, took to the social media platform to react to the lawmakers’ failure to override the veto. The presidential spokesperson said the Crypto-Asset Market Act is a legal fiasco, while calling the attempt to overturn the president’s veto a political maneuver.

Leskiewicz said in a statement:

The President, by vetoing this act, exposed the low quality of the legislation being created. This market should be subject to monitoring and control, but certainly, bad law should not be created that restricts the freedom to conduct business activities.

President Nawrocki, who was elected earlier in June, had always portrayed himself as a pro-Bitcoin leader who would rather veto regulatory restrictions than create new digital asset laws. According to market data, the adoption of crypto assets by Polish households has continued to grow in recent years, with the number of domestic users expected to hit 7.9 million by this year’s end.

In a not-so-surprising turn of events, the bearish orientation of the Bitcoin price has continued into the month of December, suggesting that the premier cryptocurrency could end the year in the red. Interestingly, recent on-chain data has offered insights into the likely direction of Bitcoin based on the integrity of an important price level.

Active Market Participants’ Cost Basis At $82,000

In a December 5 post on the X platform, market analyst Burak Kesmeci shared an interesting outlook on the direction of the Bitcoin price. 

The analyst disclosed that whatever happens around the $82,000 mark could make or mar Bitcoin’s trajectory in the near term. To demonstrate why this price region is so important, Kesmeci pointed out that it appears to be the convergence point of two highly influential cost bases in Bitcoin’s history. 

Kesmeci revealed that the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds have an average purchase cost of approximately $82,000. Because ETFs are one of Bitcoin’s strongest demand sources, tracking the values of their average cost-basis could serve as a good means to tell where the market stands institutionally.

The crypto pundit also referenced the Bitcoin True Market Mean metric, which monitors the cost at which active investors procured their holdings—except for mined or rarely-moved BTC. Notably, in the current market cycle, Bitcoin’s active participants mostly purchased their coins around a valuation of $82,000. 

What Happens If $82,000 Fails? 

Usually, when price slips beneath any major price support, there is, in turn, an increase in overall selling pressure, as buy-side liquidity is converted to bearish momentum via losses incurred by investors. Hence, in the scenario where $82,000 fails to hold, a wave of bearish pressure is expected to ensue, as Bitcoin’s active investors try to cut their losses. 

However, Kesmeci expects something even more specific to follow. According to historical data, whenever Bitcoin falls beneath its active market participant cost basis, it often falls further downwards, as though it is targeting its Realized Price.

At the moment, the Bitcoin Realized Price sits near $56,000 — a price level significantly beneath its investors’ average cost basis. Kesmeci therefore warned that a slip beneath $82,000 could precede Bitcoin’s sharp downturn towards $56,000.

This would represent an almost 40% decline from the current price point. As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $89,310, reflecting an over 3% dip in the past 24 hours. 

The Bitcoin price has had a mixed performance over the past week, with both sides of the market divide struggling to establish dominance. In the latest battle between the bulls and bears, the premier cryptocurrency appears to be succumbing to pressure from the latter group.

As this weekend approached, the Bitcoin price retreated from its latest local high of around $94,000 to beneath the psychological $90,000 level. This latest correction has prompted questions in the crowd, with investors wondering whether it is just a brief obstacle or the end of the recovery.

Why $80,500 Could Be The Next Local Low For BTC

In a December 5 post on the social media platform X, Alphractal CEO and founder shared insight into the latest Bitcoin price decline below $90,000. The on-chain expert revealed that losing the $89,800 level is the more relevant occurrence in the latest price downturn.

In a previous post on X, Wedson evaluated the likely trajectory of the Bitcoin price should it lose the $89,800 level. The crypto pundit revealed that losing this price mark could lead to an accumulation pattern for the bulls or a redistribution phase for the bears.

While the accumulation period for the bulls would initially coincide with lower prices, it eventually leads to a Bitcoin price return to above the latest local high. Meanwhile, a redistribution phase could see the bears push the flagship cryptocurrency to around the $70,000 mark.

According to the Alphractal CEO, the price of BTC also failed to hold the key on-chain levels, strengthening the probability of a broader price sideways phase. “Sideways action is the cause — the big pumps or dumps are just the effect,” Wedson had earlier stated in his previous X post.

Furthermore, Wedson noted that the next level to watch is $86,500, which, if lost, opens the very high possibility for the formation of a new local low around $80,500. This local low could provide a perfect spot for investors to buy the dip and enter the market.

Bitcoin Price Overview 

As mentioned earlier, the past week has been one of highs and lows for the premier cryptocurrency, plummeting to as low as $84,600 on Monday, December 1. After a shaky start to the month, the Bitcoin price recovered strongly to around $94,000 on Thursday, December 4.

As of this writing, the market leader is valued at around $89,415, reflecting an over 3% price decline in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the price of Bitcoin has been down by nearly 10% in the past year.